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How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect?
John M. Cioffi (also W. Abbott, W. Lee, T. Cil, & G. Ginis)
CEO/COB ASSIA
(Professor Emeritus, Stanford EE)
Hot Interconnects August 27, 2014 (Google, Mt. View)
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• World leader: broadband-access optimization & diagnosis
– Reduce service disruptions, blocky or sticky video, etc. – Used on 80M internet connections globally
• Virtualization of the broadband connection ! All software & services
! Analysis
! Optimization
! Wireless or fixed & speeds
ASSIA Company Intro
Brazil
Latin America ME&A Asia
North America
Hungary
Europe
Jiangsu
+3 provinces
Germany
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Columbia
Peru
Chile
Argentina
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• Does FAST make us happy? – 1 Gbps or 100 Mbps (or 10 Mbps)?
– Are “high” wireless or wireline speeds shared with too many others?
– Confused by fiber, G.fast Gigabit DSLs, DOCSIS 3.1, LTE-A? • $$$?
HOT Interconnect à happy consumer
Content
• Or HOT on what we’d like to do? – Content (favorite show, game …)
– Device (where) they view it
– Video looks good (no stop/sticky or loss)
– Help when they need it (with no hassle)
– Price
• A HOT Key: Stability • Consistent availability of desired apps
– DATA: internet slow/out > 5% of the time, consumer complaints "#
– VIDEO: internet slow/out > 1% of the time, consumer complaints "#
– Ave speed or Ave peak speed is almost meaningless • See FCC “Sam Knows” (unfortunately ignores tails = consumer happiness)
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“Internet of Things” Already more devices than people
It’s HARDER and HARDER to be HOT!
• 571M Private Wi-Fi Hot Spots
• A US family of four has 10 connected devices in the home, 25 in 2017, 50 in 2022
• 16 Billion connections/devices 2014
• Number of total devices expected to grow to over 40 billion by 2020
Device Trends
679M fixed-line internet connections
ABI Research
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How many interconnects are “cold”?
Instability: Combination of speed variation, packet errors, outages, consumer calls/complaints, the type of app running
• Based on 90-95% distributions – Meaning these fractions of customers are seeing worst case 5-10% daily or more frequent
Instability based on field measurements
connec%on Nominal Best (managed) Speed
Fiber (PON) 16% 6% 90 Mbps
Instability based on field measurements
connec%on Nominal Best (managed) Speed
Fiber (PON) 16% 6% 90 Mbps
Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps
Instability based on field measurements
connec%on Nominal Best (managed) Speed
Fiber (PON) 16% 6% 90 Mbps
Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps
ADSL2+ 15% 7% 10 Mbps
VDSL2 18% 7% 25 Mbps
Vec VDSL 45% 8% 75 Mbps
Instability based on field measurements
connec%on Nominal Best (managed) Speed
Fiber (PON) 16% 6% 90 Mbps
Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps
ADSL2+ 15% 7% 10 Mbps
VDSL2 18% 7% 25 Mbps
Vec VDSL 45% 8% 75 Mbps
Wi-‐Fi (11g) 50% 15% 10 Mbps
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Speed Variation (peak-to-ave) à cools off
Source Ra5o
FCC 2013 Report (ave) 80%
1.2 : 1 2 :1
• BB access connect variation
Single media Fiber, coax, wireless
Router (or PON or cable)
waiting queue
• Sharing Prob (issue sometimes)
Source Ra5o
FCC 2013 Report (ave) 80%
1.2 : 1 2 :1
Akamai 2014 ave of 100% (over all)
8:1
Source Ra5o
FCC 2013 Report (ave) 80%
1.2:1 2:1
Akamai 2014 ave of 100% (over all)
8:1
ASSIA DSLs (95%) DSL’s 80%
4:1 1.3:1
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Comparisons of Bandwidth
• Neighborhood of 20 homes/units
– If each receives on a separate connection 100 Mbps, then there is 2 Gbps of bandwidth to the neighborhood
– If each shares a single connection with 1Gbps, then the speed when all are active is 50 Mbps
– Which is better?
• Consumers want consistent use of their favorite applications: this suggests the guaranteed 100 is best
– And there is a Wi-Fi way to share the “extra Gbps” (later in this talk)
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• Orange Fiber – my house, Paris, 20 Oct 2013, 18:45
Don’t believe fiber always solves
• 7:05 am, next morning – Game last night looked bad – My DSL always ran 6 Mbps
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Where is the cold interconnect?
Routers (DSL, WiFi) and Hubs, Set-‐Top-‐Boxes, Media Players DSLAM
Aggrega5on Network
Broadband Network Gateway
Home Network (Wi-‐Fi or wiring)
Access Network Fiber/xDSL, coax
Edge Network BRAS/CDN
Core Network Big routers
Increasingly likely to affect hotness
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Is it Fair (fast, slow, …)?
“Cloud”
or ?
Is the desired app working?
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Some Supporting Wi-Fi data
Neighborhood (same supplier) of 300 AP’s 3000 devices
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Measurement
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Measure to a server, which one?
“Cloud”
• Accurate? – Does it flood link (knock out others)? – Does it depend on server? – Throughput? – Worst-case 90%?
• Helpful? – If low, then what?
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• Equipment provides instantaneous measurement of raw bit rate
– Not throughput – Often VERY inaccurate or done with “hog” best-case
settings – What if something changes?
• Wi-Fi router reported bit rates cannot be trusted (at all)
– Computation of actual speed from reported parameters is highly complex optimization program
– Does not account for crosstalk from other access points
Let the Equipment Report?
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Cloudcheck Enables Holistic Home Network Management and Self Care
Cloudcheck Measurement
Wi-Fi speed (to
AP)
Fixed-line speed (to
edge)
Wireless speed (if available)
Edge/Core to app server
• Is there a problem?
• Is the problem Wi-Fi, fixed-line, wireless?
• Can it be fixed automatically? – Does the consumer want the fix?
• Will they pay for it? • After 30 day trial?
• Is new equipment necessary? – If so, what kind?
• Is Expert help needed? – On phone, on-line, in-home?
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Some Access Net Measurement Points
• Within the cloud – Edge Routers/BRAS
– Cache servers and CDN’s
– Core routers
– Servers
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Wi-Fi “Hot” Spots and Problems
= Coverage (noise) & signal strength
Crosstalk
who controls phy
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Wi-Fi Diagnostics
Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad
Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐
• Who needs Gbps on Wi-Fi if you knock out your neighbor (and they knock out you)? 11ac issue
Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad
Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN
-‐-‐ -‐-‐
-‐ -‐
-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐
+ -‐
-‐ +
Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad
Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN
-‐-‐ -‐-‐
-‐ -‐
-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐
+ -‐
-‐ +
Channels -‐-‐ + + + ++ Bonding (more collisions)
+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad
Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN
-‐-‐ -‐-‐
-‐ -‐
-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐
+ -‐
-‐ +
Channels -‐-‐ + + + ++ Bonding (more collisions)
+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ +
Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad
Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN
-‐-‐ -‐-‐
-‐ -‐
-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐
+ -‐
-‐ +
Channels -‐-‐ + + + ++ Bonding (more collisions)
+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ + Data rate/codes -‐-‐ -‐ + + +
Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad
Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN
-‐-‐ -‐-‐
-‐ -‐
-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐
+ -‐
-‐ +
Channels -‐-‐ + + + ++ Bonding (more collisions)
+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ + Data rate/codes -‐-‐ -‐ + + + Spa%al MIMO -‐-‐ -‐-‐ + ++ +
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CO
How much Fiber ($) vs copper (¢)
Fiber (FTTN) 0~3Km ADSL2+
8~20 Mbps $150/sub
Fiber (FTTN, FTTC) 0~1Km Vectored VDSL2
ELIMINATES CROSSTALK
50~100 Mbps $300~500/sub
Fiber (PON) 10-‐100 Mbps ? $2500-‐5000/sub
0~3Km ADSL2+
8~20 Mbps $30~50/sub
100~500 Mbps $1400/sub
0~200m G.fast
Fiber (FTTC, FTTB)
Distribu5on Terminal
Feeder Plant
Distribu5on Plant
Drop Plant
splitter
0~6Km ADSL
1~8 Mbps $30~50/sub
FTTH 1 Gbps ? $3000-‐8000/sub
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Last “Mile/km/hm/da-m” Copper issues
Shared
fiber Internet
(“telco”)
Content
OLT/DSLAM
DSL’s and Crosstalk
Crosstalk (or sharing on coax/fiber)
Home NOISE into DSL
(its huge)
Crosstalk (or sharing on coax/fiber)
Home noises – they’re bad and they vary
Crosstalk (or sharing on coax/fiber)
Home noises – they’re bad and they vary Length of copper (versus fiber)
Crosstalk (or sharing on coax/fiber)
Home noises – they’re bad and they vary Length of copper (versus fiber) Where are noises, taps, splices
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FTTx/DSL Diagnostics
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + +
• Who needs Gbps on FTTx if you knock out your neighbor (and they knock out you)?
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++
Crosstalk (or sharing)
-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++
Crosstalk (or sharing)
-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐
taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++
Crosstalk (or sharing)
-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐
taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++
Crosstalk (or sharing)
-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐
taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Problem loca%on -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐
Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH
line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++
Crosstalk (or sharing)
-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐
taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐
splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Problem loca%on -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Bad equipment -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐
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HFC (Hybrid Fiber Coaxial)
Source : Wikipedia.org
500~2000 home sharing $ Becoming 50~200 for a better service (Extend fiber further as in DSL) Share 38 down/9~27 up Mbps (DOCSIS 1.x~2.0) $ Migrating to 304/108Mbps (DOCSIS 3.0) $ 10/2 Gbps for DOCSIS 3.1 (must change ampls)
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Cocktail Party Effect
TALK LOUD Sorry, can’t hear,
Talk louder
I NEED TO TALK VERY
LOUD
• Solution: All speak politely at low volume (lower power) – All send more information (more power and/or higher data rate)
• This is how dynamic management works with DSLs, Wi-Fi, sharing
• Each group of people/lines controls itself politely ==> competition
OK, I’ll SHOUT
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• Is backhaul congested?
• Caching/multi-cast?
• Streaming, gaming, … ?
• Bandwidth to core?
• Peering arrangements?
• Is the server just too slow?
Edge/Core Issues
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Optimization
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Basic Optimization and Diagnosis
Diagnos5cs Loop
% Diagnos5cs ● copper ● DSL
% Upgrade ident.
Consumer OSS, customer care
Reprofiling Loop
% Automa5c connec5on repair ● QoS target ● rate target
Con5nuous collect
All connec5ons
Access Network
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What can be optimized dynamically?
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk
Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk
Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise
Codes Correc%on without too much delay
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk
Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise
Codes Correc%on without too much delay
Priority Fairness rela%ve to payment/need
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk
Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise
Codes Correc%on without too much delay
Priority Fairness rela%ve to payment/need
Noise Cancelling Reduce home noises’ effect
Control (“knob”) goal
Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele
MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk
Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise
Codes Correc%on without too much delay
Priority Fairness rela%ve to payment/need
Noise Cancelling Reduce home noises’ effect
Resend parameters Minimize collisions
Opt Server
Internet Connection
controls
feedback
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Typical Fixed-line Dynamic Management Fixed Broadband Complaints per 1000 customers/
connections – October 2010 –December 2012, by Quarter
Source : Ofcom on UK fixed broadband providers
Good DM
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Typical Field Wi-Fi Results (11n – 90%)
Before opt Ader opt
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80% results (see improved speeds)
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• Can direct energy adaptively – Not completely controllable in practice – Will get some “spurious” lobes along with desired – Accuracy is limited by number of antennas, spacing, and movement
• Theoretically max bandwidth is increased by number of antennas • 802.11n is one user • 802.11ac allows 2-4 users (one for each “lobe”) • Heaven help other AP’s users in the lobes
MIMO from box vendor standpoint
processor
processor
processor
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Cloud Management of MIMO (7 SSIDs)
User 1 User 2 User 3 User 4
User 5 User 6
User 7 empty
User 1 User 2
Freq Channel
(4 chan’s)
Space Channel
(4 antennas)
• Basically 16 slots (each say ~ 54 Mbps)
• How a box vendor does it
• Cloud managed – multiple SSIDs
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Vectored DSLs MISO (downstream)
• Like “MIMO” in wireless • Proposed, patented, Stanford 2001
• ITU G.993.5 standard (2009) and G.Fast (2013)
CPE 1
CPE 2
0
Old DSLAM Port 1
Old DSLAM Port 2
crosstalk
“wireless”
Customer 1
Customer 2
Vectored DSLAM
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Vectoring’s major issue: other noises
• Crosstalk removal “exposes” other noises – Need management of stability
• Particularly true if home wiring involved – G.FAST uses this wiring (SNR will decrease)
Noise A
NoiseB
Noise C Noise floor
Vectoring does not cancel A,B,C because they are not at transmit Antenna loca%on (only at receiver)
Crosstalk noise
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Mitigate Non-Crosstalk Noise
Achieve high quality of experience Automa%cally reconfigure underperforming lines
Non-‐vectored Vectored
Unm
anaged
Man
aged
15% 45
%
7% 8%
Lines with poor quality
Detect if line is under-‐performing
Analyze individual line data
Apply new configura%on
for line
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• Software version of owning the hardware – Differentiate all the way down to physical level
– Software management of connection speed/stability
Software Unbundling: Smart Vectoring
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DSL Booster
• Use antennas at receiver – Other wires or antennas – Noises (not crosstalk) in the home will get into these antennas and line – Must be tracked continuously and statistically from the cloud
• Must cancel the noise causing instability
– Avoid cancelling the DSL signal itself
Mul% Antenna Bump in wire 0
“wireless” DSL Sig
nal on line
Spurious Lobe
CPE
Noises A Booster
cloud server
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Test # Noise Loop length (kd) Rate
W/o Booster Single ref Mul% ref
1 Broadband 4.5 3.2 13.7 18.9
2 Broadband + 5 narrowband (AM)
4.5 2.8 13.5 19.0
3 VDSL crosstalk 4.5 2.8 12.3 17.4
4 Broadband 9 1.2 7.1 8.0
5 VDSL crosstalk 9 1.2 5.4 5.8
DSL Booster results on difficult connections
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• Speed increase plus less variation
Some DSL Boosting in field (France)
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• Note the lines with huge variation (churn) disappear • All achieved with latest/best DSL modem model
DSL Boosting Statistical
Speed Variation
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USA Noise Variation (DSL) w/wo booster
Data rate varies widely Even for same length, And even for same connection
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DSL/WiFi Gateway
IP Layer Bonding
Broadband Consumer
The Cloud (internet)
DSL/WiFi Gateway
R2
LTE Path/BS
R3
Management & Agg/Deag Server
• Total data rate R1+R2+R3 – Remember earlier example of extra 1 Gbps still yet to share – This is how
• Allows 100 Mbps to 1.1 Gbps PER Consumer (less sharing) • Much cheaper than fiber to the customer, and sooner
R1
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Examples:
• Example A (very low cost): – LTE at 50 Mbps + 802.11g VDSL/WiFi at 54 Mbps == 100 Mbps
• LTE may be shared • 54 Mbps Wi-Fi may be shared over a few devices
– Not all are on the LTE spectra
• Example B (low cost): – 3 VDSL+ 802.11n Wi-Fi at 108 Mbps each == 324 Mbps – Sharing limited to 3 living units
• Example C (medium cost) – 3 G.Fast + 802.11n Wi-Fi at 600 Mbps each == 1.8 Gbps – Sharing limited to 3 living units
• Example D Fiberhood FTTH (very high cost) – 1 fiber to each residence at 1 Gbps + 1 Gbps Wi-Fi 802.11ac – Sharing limited to 1 living unit
• Consumers would probably be very very happy on Option A – And if offered today might switch to it from anything more expensive or slower
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How “Hot” is Your Interconnect?
• It can be pretty hot – Cloud management will increase the temperature a lot!
• Steps – Diagnostics (like Cloudcheck)
– Analysis (temporal, spatial, across users, networks)
– Optimization of access links
• This Cloud Management is what is needed, not replacing the physical connections
– Its what the consumers really want
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xDSL Speeds Up with ASSIA opportunity
Source : TNO 2012
Bandwidth (bps)
Reach
G.fast
Vectoring VDSL
VDSL2
ADSL2+
ADSL2 ADSL
2002
2003
2007
2014
2018+
6Km 3Km 1500m 500m 200m
In Standardization
Commercially Deployed
1G
500M
100M
50M
20M
8M
1M
FTTEx FTTC/B FTTdp
G.now/hn
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More Speed - Means Unstable Connections
DSLAM
Core Internet
More Speed
20 Mbps
More Costs
More Calls
15 Mbps
Content
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ASSIA Stabilizes Last Mile Connections
Service Provider
Core Internet
Makes Your Connection Run Faster and Smoother
Content
SOFTWARE & associated solutions
ASSIA
49
Return on 35euro/month (8 euro profit)
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
• 3 year return on access investment – About the limit for most telcos/investors
– 300€ is practical limit to invest for retention of existing subscriber (@8€ profit)
• Examples:
– AT&T iPhone subsidies about $400
– DT FTTN is 300€/customer for 100 Mbps VDSL connection
• DT reports 2000-4000€/customer for FTTH (concludes too expensive)
• Pay more in mergers (2x – based on operational cuts possible)
• Numericable purchase of SFR (higher profit > 8 euro) – 650 euro/customer ($1000)
Cumulative profit
months
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Drivers for Vectored VDSL Cost Advantage
– FTTC + Vectoring is significantly cheaper than FTTH and vectoring likely to add only 50-‐100 USD per line
Time to Market Advantage
– Compe%%on from Cable Operator – Less Civil Works compared to FTTH
Stable Standards on ASSIA patented vectored technology
2 Vectored Chip Providers already licensed (Ikanos & Lan%q), more soon
Operators move towards VDSL vectoring • Deutsche Telekom-‐ September 2012 DT announced
vectored VDSL coverage to 24 million homes by 2017. – ASSIA investor and customer
• Telecom Italia-‐ September 2012, TI announced plans for FTTC to 6.1 million homes by end 2016. Belgacom, KPN, Swisscom in Europe all star%ng
• AT&T-‐ November 2012 announced its Project VIP to extend U Verse FTTN coverage by 8.5 million homes by 2015, and 1 Gbps plans announced 2014.
– ASSIA licensed AT&T on VVDSL in 2013
• Australia – NBNCo, Sept 2013 elec%on turns on FTTN to replace earlier FTTH plans
• Korea Telecom – now inves%ga%ng 200-‐500 Mbps DSLs for their FTTB deployment (20+M homes)
Market moves to deployment of Vectored VDSL [ASSIA invented VVDSL, licensed VVDSL, and manages VVDSL]
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Fixed-Line Customers and Total
Source : Point Topic Data thru Q4-2013 published Q3-13, ASSIA analysis
52
Single media Fiber, coax, wireless
Router (or PON)
• If all the single-media is less than sum of consumer bandwidths, then some users must wait (can be random) a long amount of time
– 1 Gbps divided over 20 residences x 5 users each = 10 Mbps
The multiplexing/priority-flow issue
waiting queue