Doug S ButterworthDoug S Butterworth

“THE “THE END END OF THE LINE” :OF THE LINE” :

HOW SOUND IS THE SCIENCE?HOW SOUND IS THE SCIENCE?

Doug S ButterworthDoug S Butterworth

MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group)

Department of Mathematics and Applied MathematicsDepartment of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics

University of Cape Town, University of Cape Town, RondeboschRondebosch 7701, South Africa7701, South Africa

OUTLINEOUTLINE

I.I. TerminologyTerminology

II.II. BluefinBluefin TunaTuna

III.III. 90% of Large Predatory Fish Gone? 90% of Large Predatory Fish Gone?

IV.IV. Collapse of Fisheries by 2048?Collapse of Fisheries by 2048?

V.V. Current World and South African SituationCurrent World and South African Situation

VI.VI. The “MPA Solution” The “MPA Solution”

VII.VII. Science, Advocacy and EthicsScience, Advocacy and Ethics

VIII.VIII. In SummaryIn Summary

I. TERMINOLOGY SUSTAINABLE YIELD SUSTAINABLE YIELD vsvs ABUNDANCEABUNDANCE

SY MSY

0 30-40% 100%

Fisheries management target BMSY

B

BMSY

PRISTINE

0

TERMINOLOGY FISHERIES:FISHERIES:

0 20 50 100

OVER EXPLOITED FULLY EXPLOITED UNDER EXPLOITED

BMSY

B

IUCN IUCN REDRED LIST:LIST:

CONTRADICTION?

IUCN IUCN REDRED LIST:LIST:

IUCN fishing intended as flag waver based on crude analysis NOT definitive

assessment of status

NO

0 20 50 70

CRITICALLY

ENDANGERED

ENDANGERED VULNERABLE

B

II. BLUEFIN TUNA

�� North Pacific North Pacific BluefinBluefin TunaTuna

�� Southern Southern BluefinBluefin TunaTuna

�� North Atlantic North Atlantic BluefinBluefin TunaTuna

Two populations: West ; East + MediterraneanTwo populations: West ; East + Mediterranean

NORTH ATLANTIC BLUEFIN

TUNA

Regional Fisheries Management Organisation: Regional Fisheries Management Organisation:

ICCATICCAT

IInternational nternational CCommission for the ommission for the CConservation of onservation of AAtlantic tlantic

TTunasunas

IInternational nternational CCommission for ommission for CCatching atching AAll the ll the TTunasunas

NORTH ATLANTIC BLUEFIN

CATCH DISTRIBUTION

ICCAT AND EASTERN BLUEFINMID 1990’s to MID 2000’s

�� Development of farmingDevelopment of farming

�� Complete loss of control in the MediterraneanComplete loss of control in the Mediterranean�� Complete loss of control in the MediterraneanComplete loss of control in the Mediterranean

�� Increasing uncertainty about size of catchIncreasing uncertainty about size of catch

�� Continued cynical attitude to science from EUContinued cynical attitude to science from EU

EAST ATLANTIC &

MEDITERRANEAN BLUEFIN

CATCHES

EAST ATLANTIC BLUEFIN

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

2009 ICCAT Meeting:2009 ICCAT Meeting:

TAC reduced to 13 500 tonsTAC reduced to 13 500 tons

100% observer coverage of farms100% observer coverage of farms

Effort (season length) restrictionsEffort (season length) restrictions

2010 CITES:2010 CITES:

Proposal to list Atlantic Proposal to list Atlantic bluefinbluefin

Fails: “Leave it to ICCAT”Fails: “Leave it to ICCAT”

CAN ICCAT DELIVER?CAN ICCAT DELIVER?

2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT EAST ATLANTIC BLUEFIN CATCH RATES (CPUE)

2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT EAST ATLANTIC BLUEFIN SPAWNER BIOMASS

2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT EAST ATLANTIC & MEDITERRANEAN BLUEFIN CATCH

2010 ICCAT ASSESSMENT

�� Marked recent catch reductionMarked recent catch reduction

Believable?Believable?

A new EU?A new EU?

�� Increased biomass estimates and improved trendsIncreased biomass estimates and improved trends

�� Maintenance of 13 500 ton TAC should see Maintenance of 13 500 ton TAC should see

rebuilding to Brebuilding to BMSYMSY by 2022 (MSY = 50 000 tons)by 2022 (MSY = 50 000 tons)

�� GreenGreen listing?listing?

III. 90% OF LARGE PREDATORY

FISH GONE?

�� Myers and Worm: Myers and Worm: Nature 423 (2003) 280Nature 423 (2003) 280--283283

�� Global ocean has lost more than 90% of large Global ocean has lost more than 90% of large

predatory fishespredatory fishespredatory fishespredatory fishes

�� Primarily based on Japanese tuna Primarily based on Japanese tuna longlinelongline datadata

�� Five substantial rebuttal papers Five substantial rebuttal papers

Hampton, Maunder, Hampton, Maunder, PolacheckPolacheck, , SibertSibert, Walters, Walters

90% OF LARGE FISH GONE? PACIFIC YELLOWFIN & BIGEYE TUNA CPUE & CATCHES

90% OF LARGE FISH GONE?

�� Analysis no longer has any credence in the Analysis no longer has any credence in the

fisheries science communityfisheries science community

�� The End of the Line The End of the Line ((JeffJeff Hutchings, Daniel Hutchings, Daniel PaulyPauly):):�� The End of the Line The End of the Line ((JeffJeff Hutchings, Daniel Hutchings, Daniel PaulyPauly):):

“Whether it’s 95% or 70% is rather irrelevant; these are still “Whether it’s 95% or 70% is rather irrelevant; these are still

dramatic declines”dramatic declines”

�� BUTBUT: 70% decline is close to B: 70% decline is close to BMSYMSY target ??!!target ??!!

ISSF – TUNA STATUS INTERNATIONAL SEAFOOD SUSTAINABILITY FOUNDATION

STATUS OF WORLD TUNA RESOURCES

Jeff Hutchings Jeff Hutchings et alet al.: .: Can. J. Fish. Can. J. Fish. AquatAquat. Sci. 67 (2010) 1205. Sci. 67 (2010) 1205--12101210

WORLDWIDE: WORLDWIDE: PelagicPelagic DemersalDemersal

TRENDS RELATIVE TO BMSY

HIGH SEASHIGH SEAS

IV. COLLAPSE OF FISHERIES BY

2048?

�� Worm Worm et alet al.: .: Science 314 (2006) 787Science 314 (2006) 787--790790

�� Project all fisheries collapsed by 2048Project all fisheries collapsed by 2048

“Collapse” “Collapse” –– catch below 10% of maximumcatch below 10% of maximum“Collapse” “Collapse” –– catch below 10% of maximumcatch below 10% of maximum

�� Based on catch, not abundance dataBased on catch, not abundance data

�� Eleven substantial rebuttal papers Eleven substantial rebuttal papers

Branch, Briggs, de Branch, Briggs, de MutsertMutsert, , HilbornHilborn (x3), (x3), HolkerHolker, ,

JaenikeJaenike, , LonghurstLonghurst, , MurawskiMurawski, , WilbergWilberg

TREVOR BRANCH: TRENDS IN

“COLLAPSED” FISHERIES

2048 PREDICTION

COLLAPSE OF FISHERIES BY

2048? �� WWF (Argus, 22 October 2010) re “The End of the WWF (Argus, 22 October 2010) re “The End of the

Line”: Line”:

“Never before have our marine resources been as “Never before have our marine resources been as

degraded and overfished as they are today”degraded and overfished as they are today”

�� Worm, Worm, HilbornHilborn et alet al.: .: Science 325 (2009) 578Science 325 (2009) 578--585585

Average exploitation rate recently declined in 5 of 10 ecosystemsAverage exploitation rate recently declined in 5 of 10 ecosystems

For 7 of these systems, rate is lower than required to achieve BFor 7 of these systems, rate is lower than required to achieve BMSYMSYIceland, US Northeast, Newfoundland, S Australia, East Bering Sea, California, New ZealandIceland, US Northeast, Newfoundland, S Australia, East Bering Sea, California, New Zealand

�� The 2048 prediction has long been The 2048 prediction has long been without any without any

credencecredence in the fisheries science communityin the fisheries science community

V. CURRENT WORLD AND

SOUTH AFRICAN SITUATION

FAO 2010 CLASSIFICATION OF FISH STOCKSFAO 2010 CLASSIFICATION OF FISH STOCKS

UnderexploitedUnderexploited 2%2%

Moderately exploitedModerately exploited 18%18% 72%72%

Fully exploitedFully exploited 52%52%

OverexploitedOverexploited 19%19%

Recovering from depletionRecovering from depletion 1% 28%1% 28%

DepletedDepleted 8%8%

CURRENT WORLD SITUATION

Worm, Worm, HilbornHilborn et alet al. (2009) database (. (2009) database (255 stocks255 stocks))

UnderexploitedUnderexploited 24%24%

Fully exploitedFully exploited 50%50%74%74%

Fully exploitedFully exploited 50%50%

OverexploitedOverexploited 14%14%

CollapsedCollapsed 12%12%26%26%

CURRENT SOUTH AFRICAN

SITUATION

Worm, Worm, HilbornHilborn et alet al. (2009) database: . (2009) database:

255 stocks255 stocks –– 8 from South Africa8 from South Africa

UnderexploitedUnderexploited 22

Fully exploitedFully exploited 66Fully exploitedFully exploited 66

Overexploited or Collapsed Overexploited or Collapsed 00

Under:Under: shallowshallow--water hake, water hake, toothfishtoothfish

Fully:Fully: anchovy, horse mackerel, deepwater hake, anchovy, horse mackerel, deepwater hake, kingklipkingklip, , sardine, south coast rock lobstersardine, south coast rock lobster

Not considered: Not considered: abalone, sole, squid, west coast rock abalone, sole, squid, west coast rock lobster, line fishlobster, line fish

VI. THE “MPA SOLUTION”

The End of the Line:The End of the Line:

Abundance increases in Marine Protected AreasAbundance increases in Marine Protected Areas

BUTBUT

�� Does this lead to greater productivity and hence Does this lead to greater productivity and hence �� Does this lead to greater productivity and hence Does this lead to greater productivity and hence

catches?catches?

Yes, insofar as nearYes, insofar as near--sessile species “spill over” outside the sessile species “spill over” outside the

MPAMPA

�� Will MPAs prevent overWill MPAs prevent over--exploitation of mobile exploitation of mobile

species?species?

Hardly Hardly –– fish become catchable once they move outsidefish become catchable once they move outside

THE “MPA SOLUTION”

�� INSHORE AREASINSHORE AREAS

PracticalPractical--enforcement approach to indirectly keep catches enforcement approach to indirectly keep catches

sustainablesustainable

�� OFFSHORE AREASOFFSHORE AREAS

Generally little to offer mobile species from a sustainability Generally little to offer mobile species from a sustainability

standpoint standpoint

Confound interpretation of data used for assessmentConfound interpretation of data used for assessment

SpatioSpatio--temporal closures more effective for effort control if temporal closures more effective for effort control if

neededneeded

VII. SCIENCE, ADVOCACY AND

ETHICS

Special additional reasons for fisheries scientists’ Special additional reasons for fisheries scientists’

concerns (concerns (raised hacklesraised hackles) about the 90% decline ) about the 90% decline

((NatureNature) and 2048 projection () and 2048 projection (ScienceScience) papers) papers

Re 90% paper:Re 90% paper:

“Widely rumoured” that a senior reviewer had rejected it“Widely rumoured” that a senior reviewer had rejected it

Seeming reluctance of Seeming reluctance of NatureNature to publish rebuttalsto publish rebuttals

THE 90% PAPER

Tom Tom PolacheckPolacheck ((Marine Policy Marine Policy 30 (2006) 47030 (2006) 470--482482):):�� Failure to address concerns of tuna scientistsFailure to address concerns of tuna scientists

�� Claiming falsely that cited papers demonstrated a consistency between Claiming falsely that cited papers demonstrated a consistency between

apparently inconsistent data sets when they didn’tapparently inconsistent data sets when they didn’t

�� Claiming discovery of already well known phenomenaClaiming discovery of already well known phenomena

�� Implying those working in the field had tunnel vision/emotional attachment to Implying those working in the field had tunnel vision/emotional attachment to

their work to undercut their potential criticismtheir work to undercut their potential criticism

�� Making emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statementsMaking emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statements�� Making emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statementsMaking emotive undocumented universal claims in publicity statements

Mark Maunder Mark Maunder et alet al. letter to . letter to Nature Nature ::Publishing and promoting highly questionable science without allowing timely Publishing and promoting highly questionable science without allowing timely

critical review by qualified people ... does science a disservicecritical review by qualified people ... does science a disservice

Nature Nature : Acknowledged wide: Acknowledged wide--spread criticism by experts in the field, but declined spread criticism by experts in the field, but declined to publish the letterto publish the letter

PolacheckPolacheck : : NatureNature appeared to divorce itself from responsibility for accuracy and appeared to divorce itself from responsibility for accuracy and general validity of conclusions of an article once published general validity of conclusions of an article once published

THE 2048 PAPERSeattle Times report Seattle Times report (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003340489_seafood03m.html)

The author sent a note to colleagues (and the Seattle Times by mistake) saying The author sent a note to colleagues (and the Seattle Times by mistake) saying

“... that the projection could act as a ‘news hook’ to get people’s attention ...”“... that the projection could act as a ‘news hook’ to get people’s attention ...”

Mike Beck Mike Beck (in The Nature Conservancy’s (in The Nature Conservancy’s Science Chronicles Science Chronicles Jan 2007)Jan 2007)“F “ in high school statistics“F “ in high school statistics

Represents targeted Represents targeted advocacyadvocacy by some journals and authors. Polarisation, by some journals and authors. Polarisation,

rather than needed corather than needed co--operation with fishing interests, fuelled by oneoperation with fishing interests, fuelled by one--sided sided

papers in papers in ScienceScience and and NatureNature

Mike Mike SissenwineSissenwine (in (in Environmental Conservation Environmental Conservation 34 (2007) 9034 (2007) 90--91) 91) Aggressive public promotion of science is fine and legitimate provided rigour Aggressive public promotion of science is fine and legitimate provided rigour

and accuracy are not sacrificed.and accuracy are not sacrificed.

The people whom fisheries scientists seek to influence deserve to know The people whom fisheries scientists seek to influence deserve to know

whether they are reading or hearing objective science or whether they are reading or hearing objective science or advocacyadvocacy..

Proposed that fisheries scientists be governed by codes of conduct, standard Proposed that fisheries scientists be governed by codes of conduct, standard

practices, certification and licensing, well beyond journal peer review, similar practices, certification and licensing, well beyond journal peer review, similar

to internal governance within other professions interacting with layto internal governance within other professions interacting with lay--people people

such as doctors, engineers and lawyers. such as doctors, engineers and lawyers.

VIII. IN SUMMARY

The End of the Line:The End of the Line:

Sound science?Sound science?

In part, but certainly not throughoutIn part, but certainly not throughout

Up to date?Up to date?Up to date?Up to date?

NoNo

Balanced?Balanced?

Certainly notCertainly not

But interpret it for what it intends to be But interpret it for what it intends to be –– advocacyadvocacy

IN SUMMARY

The End of the Line The End of the Line Local sponsors: WWF, Investec, Pick n PayLocal sponsors: WWF, Investec, Pick n Pay

Laudable objective to promote sustainabilityLaudable objective to promote sustainability

BUT Questionable PublicityBUT Questionable Publicity

Investec:Investec: “A world without fish .... around 2048”“A world without fish .... around 2048”

“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)“90% of all large fish fished out” (citing WWF)

Promoting false information is counterPromoting false information is counter--productive towards productive towards

influencing the fishing industryinfluencing the fishing industry

Why aren’t these companies who want to do “the right thing” Why aren’t these companies who want to do “the right thing”

better informed?better informed?

Lack of due diligence on their part? Lack of due diligence on their part?

OROR

A failure of mainstream science to communicate effectively?A failure of mainstream science to communicate effectively?

IN SUMMARY

The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Three StepsThree Steps

�� Ask before you buy Ask before you buy –– eat only sustainable eat only sustainable

seafoodseafood

Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible �� Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible

fishingfishing

�� Tell politicians Tell politicians –– respect the science and cut respect the science and cut

the fishing effortthe fishing effort

IN SUMMARY

The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Step OneStep One

�� Ask before you buy Ask before you buy –– eat only sustainable seafoodeat only sustainable seafood

YES YES

BUTBUT

Be aware of the source of the advice as to sustainability Be aware of the source of the advice as to sustainability

e.g. Special interest groups e.g. Special interest groups -- some systems mark some systems mark ANYANY trawl trawl

caught fish caught fish redred

HilbornHilborn: : Trawling provides 7% of meat and fish consumption worldwide Trawling provides 7% of meat and fish consumption worldwide

Replace that fish by meat production through grazing: Replace that fish by meat production through grazing:

requires area five times the size of remaining rain forestrequires area five times the size of remaining rain forest

Which is more environmentally friendly: fishing or meat production?Which is more environmentally friendly: fishing or meat production?

IN SUMMARY

The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Step TwoStep Two

�� Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible Join the campaign for MPAs and responsible

fishingfishing

MPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficientMPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficientMPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficientMPAs are neither a panacea nor sufficient

Mike Beck Mike Beck (in The Nature Conservancy’s (in The Nature Conservancy’s Science Chronicles Science Chronicles Jan 2007)Jan 2007)The few solutions that are offered are simplistic, e.g. ‘lets stop The few solutions that are offered are simplistic, e.g. ‘lets stop

fishing in certain areas’fishing in certain areas’

The concept is being The concept is being heavilyheavily oversoldoversold

Require cogent scientific rationale before Require cogent scientific rationale before

implementing any specific proposalimplementing any specific proposal

IN SUMMARY

The End of the Line The End of the Line –– Step ThreeStep Three

�� Tell politicians Tell politicians –– respect the science and cut respect the science and cut

the fishing effortthe fishing effort

YES! YES! YES!YES! YES! YES!

THIS IS WHAT THIS IS WHAT REALLY REALLY MATTERS!MATTERS!

90% of the world’s fisheries problems will be rapidly solved 90% of the world’s fisheries problems will be rapidly solved

by ensuring respect for sound scientific advice on catches, by ensuring respect for sound scientific advice on catches,

and reducing available fishing effort to the corresponding and reducing available fishing effort to the corresponding

level needed level needed

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention

Acknowledgements for assistance with presentation Acknowledgements for assistance with presentation

information/development information/development and preparation:and preparation:information/development information/development and preparation:and preparation:

Trevor Trevor BranchBranch (Univ. Washington)(Univ. Washington)

Ray Ray HilbornHilborn (Univ. Washington)(Univ. Washington)

Laurie Laurie KellKell (ICCAT)(ICCAT)

Mark Mark MaunderMaunder (IATTC)(IATTC)

Andrea Andrea MüllerMüller

Victor Victor RestrepoRestrepo (ISSF)(ISSF)

William RobinsonWilliam Robinson