Date post: | 08-Aug-2015 |
Category: |
Internet |
Upload: | eustachy-bielecki |
View: | 85 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Forecas(ng for Internet Companies
E-‐commerce: methods and trends 2015 Class: Prognose und Prognosemethoden
für Medienmärkte, SoSe 2015, FU Berlin Dozent: Prof. Dr. Klaus Goldhammer by Yevstakhiy Biletskyy, 311816
Berlin 2015
E-‐commerce. Agenda of PresentaNon
Success Factors for E-‐commerce E-‐commerce forecas(ng challenges Before Forecas(ng. Metrics to consider Funnel Op(miza(on Predic(ng demand Predic(ng pricing Models for Forecas(ng in E-‐commerce -‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐-‐ Discussion Literature
the B2C e-‐commerce sales is e x p e c t e d t o g r ow 1 5 . 6% w o r l d w i d e t h i s y e a r a n d approximately 13% in 2016
StaNsta.com, 2015 Source
Figures from a study RetailMeNot (2014) and Centre for Retail Research (2014) via Econsultancy.com January 2015
Customers spend more money on online shopping. Year by Year. More and More!
Success Factors for E-‐commerce
Erfolgsfaktoren im E-‐commerce – Deutschlands Top Online Shope vol 3, ECCC & Hermes, 2014 Source
Criteria
Erfolgsfaktoren im E-‐commerce – Deutschlands Top Online Shope vol 3, ECCC & Hermes, 2014 Source
E-‐commerce Goals? For Retailer:
Cost Effec(veness For Client: Product Sa(sfac(on
How? Purchasing Planning-‐>Strategy-‐>Forecast
E-‐commerce Forecast: (1) Demand Planning
(predict demand and profit)
(2) Inventory Management (make sure items are available)
E-‐commerce Forecast Challenges:
(1) Behaviour of customers (2) Seasonal changes (3) Trends (4) Demand pa]erns of compe(tors (5) Mul(channel Commerce (6) Classical Forecast methods fail
Before Forecas(ng: What we need to do?
(1) Understand the Lifestyle Value of the Customer
(2) Break customers into groups
(3) Introduce Net Promoter Score
(4) Monitor Customer Sa(sfac(on
(5) Indicate ROI
For Old Products: Historical Product Data, Demographics, (me series analysis, cohort analysis
For New Products: Data Mining + Forecast Experience + Trends + Cohort Analysis = Regression Analysis (dependent elements)
Consider: (1) Margins (2) Unique Selling Proposi(on (3) Lose Leader Strategy (upselling) (4) Effec(veness of Promo(ons
Campaign-‐>Conversion-‐>ROI Test, Adjust and again Test
Neteconomy Models (1) Cohort Analysis – break users into related groups with a common element
Time Series Analysis – measurements over a Nme interval Regression Analysis – complex relaNonship between variables
Online Marke(ng Tools as a forecas(ng method (2) SEO – keywords -‐> Your site -‐> conversion Dispaly Ads – display ads -‐>Your site -‐> conversion Email MarkeNng – email campaign -‐> Your site -‐> conversion Test with Google AnalyNcs!
New Technology CRM communicate with Your customer (3) -‐ grade transacNon -‐ post-‐purchase saNsfacNon surveys -‐ random check outs Tools: Onsite survey, Chat, UGC, emails, Social Media, telephone Want to hear the Voice? Make Sure You offer them value in return
(NET)ECONOMY
A/B Tes(ng ongoing (4a) What? Web Traffic split between 2 versions of the site. Goal? Establish the objecNve eg. increase sales, Nme spent on the site, returning visitors You can test: Content, usablity, accessability, product performance, funnel, errors
… increased revenue by 56 %
Removing Drop Down increased conversion on e-‐commerce website, Case Study, 2013 Source
How to create an ideal forecas(ng model for online shopping? What to consider? A) Qualita(ve B) Quan(ta(ve C) ?
Sources Nian Shing Chen, E-‐commerce ForecasNng Demand for New Products, hlp://www.academia.edu/2957971/E-‐COMMERCE_FORECASTING_DEMAND_FOR_NEW_PRODUCTS 9 E-‐commerce trends in 2015, hlps://www.shipwire.com/w/blog/9-‐e-‐commerce-‐trends-‐2015-‐influence-‐buyer-‐experience/ 20 E-‐commerce Trends and PredicNons in 2015, hlps://econsultancy.com/blog/65929-‐20-‐ecommerce-‐trends-‐and-‐predicNons-‐for-‐2015/ Types of E-‐commerce, hlp://bloomidea.com/en/blog/types-‐e-‐commerce How To evaluate Market Demand for Your New Product Idea, hlp://www.shopify.com/blog/13444793-‐how-‐to-‐evaluate-‐market-‐demand-‐for-‐your-‐new-‐product-‐idea US 2015: Digital Future in Focus?http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Presentations-and-Whitepapers/2015/2015-US-Digital-Future-in-Focus Nielsen Global Survey on e-‐commerce, March 2014, http://www.marketingcharts.com/online/which-e-commerce-product-categories-are-seeing-increasing-purchase-intent-45462/ Sales Forecast Techniques for Emerging Industries, MonarchControls, http://monarchcontrols.trustpass.alibaba.com/product/125897063-103353399/Sales_Forecasting_Techniques_for_emerging_industries_on_the_web_like_eCommerce_Search_Engine.html Removing Drop Down increased conversion on e-‐commerce website, Case Study, 2013 Source E-‐commerce Physical and Logical ConnecNon Methods, White Paper, NX Trend 2001 2015 Forecast: E-‐commerce, MulNchannel Merchant, 2015
Erfolgsfaktoren im E-‐commerce – Deutschlands Top Online Shope vol 3, ECCC & Hermes, 2014 Source