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How to Test the Inside of your Head Liz Keogh @lunivore http://lizkeogh.com
How to Test the Inside of your Head
Liz Keogh
@lunivore
http://lizkeogh.com
A story aboutbeing certain
"Why do these approaches faileven when logic indicates they should prevail?The answer lies in a fundamental assumption
of organizational theory and practice:that a certain level of
predictability and orderexists in the world.“
- Dave Snowden,“A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making”
EpiphanyApophany
The Innovation Cycle
CommoditiesDifferentiators
Build on
Spoilers
Cynefin
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
With thanks to
David Snowden and Cognitive Edge
sense,categorize,
respond
sense,analyze,respond
probe,sense,
respond
act,sense,
respond
Cynefin
Obvious
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
With thanks to
David Snowden and Cognitive Edge
Knownknowns
KnownunknownsUnknown
unknowns
UnknowableUnknowns
Observe data
Filter data
Generate assumptions
Draw conclusions
Build beliefs
Confirmation BiasThink we’re right
Look for validationFeel really good!
Confirmation BiasThink we’re right
Find out we’re notBoo!
Google effect
Apophenia Pareidolia
Confirmation Bias
Actor-Observer
Bias
Illusion of Control
Insensitivity to sample
size
Omission bias
Negativity bias
Naïve cynicism
Fundamental Attribution
Error
System justification
Worse-than-average effect
Illusion of transparency
Trait ascryption
bias
Cryptomnesia
Choice-supportive
biasForer effect
Normalcy bias
Bandwagon effect
Decoy effect
Hyperbolic discounting
Restraint biasStereotyping
Distinction bias
Pseudocertaintyeffect
Pessimism bias
Optimism bias
Moral luck
False consensus
effect
Anchoring
Congruence bias
Overconfidenceeffect
Loss Aversion
159 Cognitive Biases on Wikipedia
Observe data
Filter data
Generate assumptions
Draw conclusions
Build beliefs
Martian channels by Percival Lowell
Cynefin
Disorder
With thanks to
David Snowden and Cognitive Edge
“Nobody loves me.”
“That’s easy.”
“We can’t accept thisinto our backlog
withoutclear acceptance criteria.”
Estimating Complexity
5. Nobody has ever done it before
4. Someone outside the org has done it before (probably a competitor)
3. Someone in the company has done it before
2. Someone in the team has done it before
1. We all know how to do it.
Estimating Complexity5 4 3
2
1
Cynefin
Complex
With thanks to
David Snowden and Cognitive Edge
probe,sense,
respond
A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
A way of knowing it’s succeeding
A way of knowing it’s failing
A way of dampening it
A way of amplifying it
Coherence
@lunivore
Coherence
A realistic reasonfor thinking the probe
might have apositive impact
Can you give me an example?
@lunivore
Examples
Given a context
When an event happens
Then an outcome should occur
Well-formed outcomesVision
HearingSmellTaste
SensationKinesthetic
Propriaception
@lunivore
In high uncertainty…
…scenarios providecoherence,
nottests
@lunivore
Coherence
Given my boyfriend and Ihave been going out for four years
When we move in with each other
Then we should be even happier together.
@lunivore
Success Scenarios
Given my boyfriend and Ihave been going out for four years
When we move in with each other
Then we should be as happy as we were,And save loads of money.
@lunivore
Multiple success scenarios
Ensures you’re not hung up onone outcome
Makes it more likely that you’ll consider
failure
@lunivore
Failure Scenarios
Given my boyfriend and Ihave been going out for four yearsWhen we move in with each other
Then we might get oneach other’s nerves.
@lunivore
“That won’t work because…”
A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…
A way of knowing it’s succeedingA way of knowing it’s failing
A way of dampening itA way of amplifying it
Coherence A way of avoiding failure completely
@lunivore
The Probe
“How about we try itfor 1 year
as an experiment?”
@lunivore
Making it Safe to Fail
Ritual Dissent
Ask a Tester!
@lunivore
The Palchinsky PrinciplesSeek out new ideas and try new things
When trying something new,do it on a scale where
failure is survivable
Seek out feedbackand learn from your mistakes
as you go along
@lunivore
Solving Wicked Problems
Oblique
Naive
@lunivore
The Shallow Dive into Chaos
shallow diveInto chaos
Name three wayswe come to consensus
“Voting.”
“Polling.”
“Yeah, I’ll go with polling too.”
Silent WorkChanging
code causestoo many
bugs
Code base
hard to
work with
Too muchtechnical
debt
The buildis tooslow
Unit testsreally
helped me
Taking time torefactor made
my storyeasier
Write afailing
test
Make it pass
Refactor
New behaviour
Refactor
Existing behaviour
and anchorwhat you value!
Number 1 rule offeedback:
Anchor what you value!
Existing behaviour
Write afailing
test
Refactorand anchor
what you value!
New behaviour
Existing behaviour
Write afailing
test
Refactorand anchor
what you value!
New behaviour
Make it pass
Describedesired
behaviour
Changethe
behaviour
The sandwich model
Start with something good
Say something bad
Finish with something good
The sandwich model done right
Anchor what you value
Describe desired behaviour
THEN change the behaviour
(People can do this bit themselves!)
Liz [email protected]@lunivore
