OXFORD ECONOMICS

How we work with clients

June 2014

A complete decision-support service

Event-driven

analysis

Scenario

and modeling

services

Regularly-

updated

country and

industry

reports

Deep-dive

Databanks

On countries,

industries,

and cities

Track … … Analyze … … Forecast

Timely economic analysis and forecasts

Country Economic Forecasts

Analysis and forecasts on over 200 countries

Global Economic Databank

Long-term forecasts and trends for over 200

countries

Global Economic Model

A rigorous tool for forecasting and scenarios

Weekly Economic Briefings

Analysis of economic events in key markets

Global Trade Databank

A forecasts for world between 180 countries

Trade-by-Product Databank

Bilateral exports by product for 33 countries

Global Scenarios Service

Alternate global macro scenarios

Analysis of multiple scenarios for the global marketplace

Global Scenarios Service

Measuring global threats

or opportunities and their

impacts

Uses our model to

explore implications of

key risks to the world

economy

New Global Investment

Scenarios Service

assesses impact of

macro shocks on multiple

asset classes

Event-driven analysis and briefings

Global Macro Service

Event-driven research briefings

Weekly macro briefings

Data insights

At-a-glance chartbooks

Regularly updated country reports

Global economic databank

Outlooks under scenarios

Presentations and webinars

Direct access to economists

A complete global industry portfolio

Global Industry Forecasts

Quarterly analysis and forecasts, with monthly

updates for nine industries

By-Country Industry Forecasts

Quarterly production data, forecasts and charts for

each manufacturing sector in 68 countries

Global Industry Databank

10-year production forecasts and 30-year historical

trends for 100 sectors in 68 countries

Global Industry Model

An integrated forecasting model for 100 sectors

across 68 key countries

Commodity Price Forecasts

Price trends and forecasts for 26 commodities

Tourism Decision Metrics

10-year forecasts and data for 180 countries-- 40,000

indicators with purpose of trip and spend

Deep coverage of 100 industrial sectors, including:

Aerospace

Agricultural machinery

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Agro-chemicals

Basic metals

Castings

Chemicals

Clothing and leather goods

Commercial building

Construction

Coke

Consumer electronics

Domestic appliances

Electrical machinery and apparatus

Electric fittings

Electrical engineering

Electricity, gas and water

Electronic engineering

Extraction

Food, beverages and tobacco

Furniture

Investment goods

Iron and steel

Machine tools

Man-made fibers

Mechanical engineering

Metal goods and products

Motor vehicles, bodies and parts

Motors, generators and transformers

Non-ferrous metals

Non-metallic minerals

Nuclear fuel

Office equipment

Other chemicals

Other electrical equipment

Other general purpose machinery

Other special purpose machinery

Other transport equipment

Paints and varnishes

Paper, printing and publishing

Petroleum

Pharmaceuticals

Precision, medical and optical equipment

Residential building

Rubber and plastics

Semiconductors

Ships, rolling stocks

Soaps, detergents and other

Telecoms equipment

Textiles, leather and clothing

Travel and tourism

Transport equipment

Weapons and ammunition

Wood and wood products

A comprehensive and unique database of city forecasts

African Cities & Regions

Forecasts for 96 locations across Africa

Asian Cities & Regions

Regularly updated forecasts for

35 locations

China Cities & Regions

Data and forecasts for more than

300 locations

European Cities & Regions

Data and forecasts for 2,000 locations

Latin American Cities & Regions

Data and forecasts for 32 locations

North American Cities & Regions

Data and forecasts for 32 locations

UK Cities & Regions

Data and forecasts for over 450

Local Authority Districts

Oxford can support a wide range of business analysis

Our team of economists and specialists deploy a rich array of quantitative and qualitative

research techniques. Thanks to our multi-disciplinary culture and wide access to experts,

executives and policy-makers we can dig deep into business, economic, industry, financial,

labour, regulatory, and social issues confronting international organisations.

Market sizing

Help identify key markets around

the world and size the opportunity

for your products and services

Scenario planning

Assess the impact of potential

economic, political or financial

shocks on your revenue, costs and

market exposure

Impact analysis

Gauge how a change to a government

policy or emerging macro development

will affect your business

Stress testing

Conduct stress testing and reverse

stress testing. Financial firms can use

the model to run CCAR scenarios to

stress test balance sheets

Forecasting

Enable you to correlate economic

drivers to your business so that you

can forecast sales performance

Thought leadership

Drawing on an array of research

methods, we create must-have

decision-support

OXFORD

ECONOMICS

We conduct economic impact studies that

assess the economic contribution of a

sector, company or investment.

We quantify the impact via four channels:

Direct impacts: jobs, output and fiscal

contributions.

Indirect impacts: employment and

output via purchases from a company’s

supply chain.

Induced impacts: jobs and

output from spending of direct

and indirect employees.

Catalytic impacts: the

benefits to performance in

other sectors.

Economic impact analysis

Our forecasting models enable us to tailor analysis to specific customer needs. We can

forecast product demand, industrial trends, economic conditions and business performance

on a global, national or city basis.

Global forecasting and market sizing

In these volatile times, unexpected shocks can destroy

profits, disrupt supply chains and upend business

models.

That is why executives are building scenario analysis

into their strategic thinking.

Our global models provide the ideal framework to

explore alternative scenarios such as a China banking

crisis, Eurozone deflation, and increased capital flow

from emerging markets.

Scenarios and stress testing

Stress scenarios for a multinational insurance firm

Oxford runs CCAR stress tests following the Fed’s November

release of stress scenarios. Each quarter, scenarios are run through

the Global Economic Model. Oxford produces a detailed scenario

report and data to the client’s specification showing the impacts on

world economies.

Thought Leadership

Quantitative analysis

Forecasting, modeling, benchmarking

and scenario analysis.

Management research

Executive surveys, interviews, expert

panels and advisory boards.

Insightful publications

Engaging executives through white

papers, newsletters and articles.

Meetings and presentations

Stimulating ideas through peer group

interchange and presentations.

Web publishing and social media

Research hubs, infographics, interactive

forums, analytical tools and microsites.

Monitoring key developments

Oxford worked together with a US

conglomerate to develop a monthly

economic indicators dashboard.

This report gives thorough

economic and industry analysis on

all regions and key countries for

their core business groups.

The company uses this information

for near-term internal planning as

well as to support quarterly sales

calls and meetings with current and

potential investors. 1 © 2014 3M. All Rights Reserved.Strategy & Corporate Development

Global summary

Positives

PMIs mostly firm in developed world (1)

US tapering offset by policy ease in Eurozone, Japan

Strengthening business investment a likely theme for the

new year in the US and Germany

German Bundesbank sees strengthening recovery

Patch of soft US data now in the past, seen as a blip

Key Indicators

World trade susceptible to setbacks going into 2014

Global growth on the upCommodity prices flat as can be

Global GDP:

2013: +2.2%

2014: +2.8%

Global IP:

2013: +1.7%

2014: +3.9%

Negatives

Veering between risk off/risk on trade for Emergers

Financial stresses re-emerging in China, growth easing,

PMI in contraction zone

Even sturdy Emergers such as Chile being affected by

capital outflows

Likely sanctions, relative isolation, to hit Russian growth

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

020406080

100120140160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global 2: Energy and metal pricesUS$ / barrel

Source : Wall Street Journal/IMF/Oxford Economics

Metals prices (RHS)

West Texas Intermediate (LHS)

2005 = 100

48.5

53.2 53.3

55.5

53.2

4446485052545658

China Eurozone Global Japan USA

Global 1: Purchasing Manager's IndexIndex score (above 50 = expansion)

Source : Markit

*

*Indicate trend direction from 3 month MA

Global PMIs on broad uptrend

2.8 2.62.2

1.81.6

2.02.4

2.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4

Global 4: Global GDP growth% change year-on-year

Source : Oxford Economics

-20-15-10-505

101520

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Global 3: World export growth% change year-on-year

Source : Oxford Economics

F'cast

Leading sales indicators for an alcoholic beverages company

Developing leading

indicators

Oxford identified the top

five indicators that most

closely predict future sales

conditions for a European

beverages company.

A custom model applies

weights to each factor,

producing a 6-month view

so that the company can

adjust their strategy.

Hypertherm’s sales forecasting model

Correlating sales to economic trends

For Hypertherm, a US precision tools

manufacturer, Oxford produces sales forecasts

for 9 product lines across 5 regions. These

forecasts and circulated to their business units

to inform sales and production planning.

An excel-based model using Oxford’s macro

and industry forecasts generates product sales

projections for Hypertherm’s products. The

model was created by correlating Hypertherm’s

sales with key economic drivers. The tool

allows input of alternative assumptions and

comparison with the central forecast.

A detailed forecast report outlines the macro

and sectoral background and traces out the

implications for the forecast of Hypertherm’s

products and the risks they face.

Economic impact analysis for Rolls Royce

Measuring total business impact

We worked with Rolls Royce to provide

evidence showing the value of their business to

the UK government.

To measure the full value that Rolls Royce

generates, we analyzed four types of impacts:

Direct -- employment, tax revenue and other

direct economic activity.

Indirect -- employment and economic activity

supported via the supply chain.

Induced -- economic activity by the

expenditure of those employed.

Catalytic -- improved productivity and

performance in other parts the economy.

Sales and production for light vehicles

In conjunction with our partner, LMC

Automotive, we provide forecasts for

global sales of light vehicles (up to 6 tons).

Along with our baseline forecast, we also

predict production and sales levels under

four timely and pertinent alternative

economic scenarios, such as a China

shadow banking crisis, or a slow down in

emerging markets.

The tool provides seven-year light vehicle

production forecasts by manufacturer,

make, model, platform and assembly.

Indexing labor supply and demand for Hays

+

Global skills index

We developed an index for Hays, a

recruitment firm, to show the efficiency of

skilled labor around the world. The index

identifies imbalances between the supply

and demand of skilled labor.

For each market, we ranked seven key

categories and combined them into a

country scorecard:

Education flexibility

Labor market participation

Labor market flexibility

Talent mismatch

Overall wage pressure

Wage pressure in high-skill industries

Wage pressure in high-skill

occupations

An index of key metrics for the Worldwide Web Foundation

Web impact index

Oxford Economics helped to

develop a pioneering Web

Index for Tim Berners-Lee’s

Worldwide Web Foundation.

This is an interactive tool for

measuring the Web’s growth,

utility, and impact on people

and nations.

Oxford Economics relied on its

global network of economists

and analysts to provide input

into the 80 country models

behind the ranking tool.

Strategic workforce planning for a consumer goods firm

Talent gap analysis

In these times of business

transformation and demographic

change, companies need to assess

the impact of their long-term

strategies on talent needs.

To help a well-known consumer

goods firm analyze trends in

Europe, Oxford Economics

compared internal talent

segmentation and forecasted

trends against expected shifts in

the supply and demographics of

talent in 8 key countries.