PowerPoint Presentation

HOW WHEAT IMPROVEMENT RESEARCH IMPACTS THE WORLDMaximina A. Lantican Hans-Joachim Braun, Thomas S. Payne, Kai Sonder, Michael Baum, Maarten van Ginkel, Olaf Erenstein Co-operators in 66 countriesCIMMYT and ICARDA Scientists

9th International Wheat ConferenceSydney, Sept 21 25, 2015

ObjectivesAnalysis covers 1994 - 2014Update and expand CIMMYTs 2002 global wheat impact studyDocument investment in wheat improvement researchFarm-level adoption of modern varieties, Contribution made by NARSs, private sector and by CGIAR to international wheatOrigin of varieties variety replacementEstimate the benefits generated by wheat improvement research

Protein from Wheat Importance for each country as plant protein source (2010-12)Source: FAO-Stats, 2015

And 50% of all grain produced within this circleWheat production in the South and NorthTwo different worlds?Developed Countr.Developing Countr.Wheat Area mlln ha95125Average yield kg/ha35003050Production mlln tons340380Average farm size ha40- > 50001 4Rainfed area mlln ha9065Irrigated area mlln ha560Max average Yield t/ha8 (UK, WW)7 (Egypt, SWConsumption Food60%85% Feed /Seed /other40%15%5MethodsQuestionnaires sent to 94 countries producing at least 5,000 tons of wheat annually.

66 countries (70%) responded to the survey, representing 80% of the world wheat production.

44 are developing countries, representing 99% of wheat production in the developing world and 55% of global wheat.Data sources: On-line varietal information; published variety guide, percentage acreage, insured/grown, scientific paper/journals, NARS and CG scientists

Technical Bulletin and wheat area,

FAO production and yield statisticsMethods

ICIS BROWSE application for pedigree analysis used to determine the CGIAR contribution

Basis for investments were CGIAR Wheat Program expenditures Excludes investments by NARS

Economic surplus model was used to estimate the benefits attributable to international wheat improvement research.

Modern varieties (MV) global adoption:

4604 varieties released during 1994 - 2014

Increase in MV adoption from 93% in 2002 to 97% in 2014 (highest among all commodities)

100 million hectares covered by CGIAR-related germplasm.

Public and Private Sector Varieties

Wheat Variety Releases by Region from Public and Private Sectors 1994 - 2014RegionPublic SectorPrivate SectorTotalChina20719226EU, AUS other high income countries6089151523Canada18222204USA290153443Former Soviet Union Countries30411315Latin America299331630South Asia3173320Sub-Saharan Africa19691287West Asia and North Africa463142605World2,8661,6874,55311Wheat Variety Releases by Region from Public and Private Sectors 1994 - 2014RegionPublic SectorPrivate SectorChina928EU / AUS and other high income countries4060Canada9010USA6535Former Soviet Union Countries973Latin America4753South Asia991Sub-Saharan Africa6832West Asia and North Africa7723World633712Percentage (%) of releases Public/Private by region, 1994-2014Public SectorPrivate SectorSpring Bread Wheat7030Winter Bread Wheat5446Spring Durum Wheat6733Winter Durum Wheat7525All6337All Varieties28661687CIMMYT/ICARDA contributions

The contribution of IARCs (CIMMYT/ICARDA) of the CGIAR to global varietal output, 1994-2014RegionNumber of dated released varieties related to CGIARShare (%) of CGIAR-related varieties to total dated releasesChina 121 54 EU and other high income countries 1,225 56 Former Soviet Union Countries 154 48 Latin America 455 72 South Asia 293 92 Sub-Saharan Africa 211 73 West Asia and North Africa 434 71 World 2,893 63 Spring bread wheat releases by region and origin 1994-2014

Source: Lantican et al., 2015Spring durum wheat releases by region and origin 1994-2014Source: Lantican et al., 2015Winter/facultative bread wheat releases by region and origin 1994-2014

Unknown Variety

Non-CGIAR parents

CGIAR Ancestry

CGIAR Parent

CGIAR Line

All wheat varieties releases by region and origin 1994-2014Percentage of Germplasm received through CRP WHEAT (2014)>75% 51 75% 26 50% 10-25%20CRP WHEAT major wheat germplasm supplier in LDC and DC

WWW.Wheatlas.org

Variety Replacement Rate

Comparison of weighted average age (years) of wheat varieties grown in farmers fields, 1997 and 2014._____________________________________________________________________________________Age 1997a 2014b_____________________________________________________________________________________14Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Algeria, Bhutan, Ecuador, Jordan, Kyrgyzstan, Ethiopia Jordan, Nepal, Peru, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia Sudan, Tunisia TurkeyaSource: Heisey, Lantican and Dubin (2002); b2014 Global Wheat Impacts survey

Countries where wheat provides more than 1/3 of daily calories

25Food prices and social unrestFood prices rise, Governments fallRed dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of food riots and protests associated with overall death toll reported in parenthesesSource: USAhttp://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf

http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdfThe Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East, August 10, 2011.Blue vertical line indicates the date, December 13, 2010, on which we submitted a report to the U.S. government, warning of the link between food prices, social unrest and political instability [56]. Inset shows FAO Food Price Index from 1990 to 2011.

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Estimated contribution of crop protection (mechanical, biological and chemical) to wheat production for 2001 03. Modified after Oerke 2006.Add. Production due to crop Protection 22% Production without Crop Protection 50%Losses28%27199320032013Wheat yield kg/ha2,5072,7113,176Yield growth rate (% pa)Average increase in yield over base yield 1993 (kg/ha/yr)Global wheat yields and underlying growth rates (national average breeding + agronomySource: derived from FAO Stat. StudyPeriod coveredAll breedingAttributed to IWINByerlee and Traxler (1996)1966-90$3.0 b per yearInternal rate of return of 53%$1.5 b per yearHeisey et al. (2002) mid-range estimate1996-97$2.4 b per year$1.1 b per yearLantican et al. (2005)--mid-range estimate1988-2002$3.4-4.8 b per year$1.0 to 1.8 b per yearMarasas et al. (2004)--leaf rust resistance only1973-2007$5.4 b net present valueEvenson and Rosegrant, 20021965-2000With no breeding research:9-14% reduction in output29-61% increase in priceWith no CGIAR5-6% reduction in output19-22% increase in priceStevenson et al. 20131966-2004With no CGIAR breeding, in Less developed countries 43% - 60% less wheat production and 29 159% higher price relative to baseline year 2004Summary of estimates of economic benefits to Impact from International Wheat Improvement29Economic benefits generated by international wheat improvement research

Additional annual production due to international wheat improvement research estimated from 24 million tons to 65 million tons per year.

Total value of additional wheat grain production attributable to international wheat improvement research ranges from US$ 6 billion to US$ 17 billion annually (2010 US$).

Total benefits attributable to the CGIAR wheat improvement research range fromUS$ 2.1 billion to US$ 5.7 billion annually (2010 US$)

Thank You to all Co-operators in the International Wheat Improvement Network

Cooperators public private easy to talk about PPP but in most developing countries there are a few seed companies but the private sector is mostly absent fro wheat breeding exception in India and S-Africa where provate sector does serious breeding 31

gracias!takdank usalamatmercidanketakk thank you kiitos graziena-ekele unuobrigadodankietackteekkr ederimasante sanamercishukranAmeseginalehu