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    World War One: The Crisis in European History--The Role of the Military Historian

    Author(s): Michael HowardSource: The Journal of Military History, Vol. 57, No. 5, Special Issue: Proceedings of theSymposium on "The History of War as Part of General History" at the Institute forAdvanced Studies, Princeton, New Jersey (Oct., 1993), pp. 127-138Published by: Society for Military HistoryStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2951809.Accessed: 12/07/2011 15:22

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    World

    War

    One:

    The Crisis

    in

    European History

    The

    Role of

    the Military

    Historian

    Michael Howard

    ILITARY

    history-by which I mean the

    history

    of

    armed

    forces

    and their

    operations

    of

    war-can no more be

    separated

    from

    general historythan can the activityof war itself fromthe societies that

    engage

    in

    it.

    But the

    association

    can

    be

    of

    varying

    degrees

    of

    intimacy.

    At one

    extreme

    are the societies of

    classical

    antiquity

    which

    were so

    constantly engaged

    in

    war that their

    general

    history

    was all

    effectively

    military history. At the other are

    those periods

    when the armed

    forces of

    a

    state and

    their

    campaigns

    have

    seemed

    sufficiently

    remote from

    the

    concerns

    of

    society as a

    whole

    for

    their activities

    to

    form the

    object

    of a

    discrete and

    specialized

    study.

    Such

    was the case in

    eighteenth-centuryEurope,

    the

    age par excel-

    lence of

    Limited

    War,

    when the

    antimilitaristic

    mind-set of the

    Enligh-

    tenment was

    formed

    in

    France, Britain,

    and the United States

    among

    a

    class

    of

    philosophes

    who

    saw war as the redundant

    activity

    of

    an

    obsolescent

    feudal ruling class. Events

    in

    Europe

    between 1789

    and

    1815 forced some

    readjustment in

    such views by continental

    thinkers,

    but

    even the

    Napoleonic warshadbeen

    very largely

    foughtby gorgeously

    uniformed

    specialists,

    often

    in

    regions

    remote

    from the main

    centers

    of

    population-certainly remote

    from

    Britain and the United States.

    For Victorian England military affairs were literally peripheral. Wars

    were

    fought by small

    professional forces a

    long way

    from

    home.

    Military history, however

    popular,

    was not a matter that

    attracted

    the

    attention

    of

    serious

    scholars.

    The

    army

    itself was

    a

    marginal

    element

    in

    society

    and its

    activities

    a

    matter

    of

    only intermittent

    interest. The

    navy

    was

    even more

    peripheral,

    but

    although

    no

    one underrated

    its

    impor-

    The

    .ournal

    of

    Military History

    SPECIAL

    ISSUIE

    57

    (Octoher 1993):

    127-38

    ?

    Societv for

    Militarv

    I

    istorv

    127

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    MICHAELHOWARD

    tance, it had to

    await

    the era

    of Alfred

    Thayer

    Mahan for

    any

    serious

    study

    of

    its

    activities.

    On

    the

    Continent,

    events took a

    somewhat different course. There

    the

    Napoleonic Wars had

    been

    formative

    and

    central,

    and their

    historians,

    whether Frenchmen like Adolphe Thiers or Germans such as Heinrich

    von

    Treitschke,

    had

    naturally

    to

    give

    military

    history pride

    of

    place.

    But

    by the end of

    the

    century, even in

    Germany,

    academic scholars were

    happy

    to

    leave

    the

    study

    of

    military

    affairs

    to

    the

    specialists

    of

    the

    General Staff

    whose interest in it

    was

    primarily

    didactic;

    and

    if,

    like

    Hans

    Delbriick,

    they were

    rash

    enough

    to

    trespass

    on

    that

    private

    territory, they

    received

    very rough

    treatment indeed.'

    The First

    World War

    changed

    all

    that. Clausewitz

    had

    seen

    in

    the

    Revolutionary

    Wars of

    his era the

    first

    appearance

    of

    Absolute

    War,

    and

    for

    someone

    brought

    up

    amid

    the

    assumptions

    of

    the

    eighteenth

    century

    it

    was

    a

    reasonable

    judgement

    to make. But

    if

    Absolute War

    meant

    the

    mobilization of all

    national resources

    in a

    fight

    to

    destruction,

    the difference between the

    wars

    of

    the

    revolution and the

    Limited

    Wars

    of

    the

    immediate

    past

    was

    minimal. The states

    of

    Europe-even

    Napoleonic

    France-simply

    did

    not

    have the

    capacity

    to mobilize

    their

    resources

    for

    a

    total

    conflict,

    and vast

    areas of

    the

    continent

    must

    have remained unaffected

    by

    the

    Napoleonic

    campaigns.

    Absolute War became possible only when, as happened in nineteenth-

    century Europe,

    the

    state acquired

    the

    bureaucratic

    structure, the

    transportation

    networks,

    and the

    communication

    systems that

    gave it

    the

    capacity to

    mobilize its

    manpower

    and

    industrial

    potential for

    military

    purposes,

    together with

    the ability,

    through

    taxation and

    loans,

    to

    finance a

    prolonged

    struggle. It

    was then that

    war

    became absolute,

    or

    total, in

    an

    unprecedented

    sense. Then

    also

    the military and

    their

    activities

    ceased to

    enjoy the

    kind of

    autonomy

    that had

    given the

    concept of

    military history

    its

    peculiar

    legitimacy.

    Once war was

    conducted by

    governments rather

    than by

    generals and

    fought

    by-and

    against-entire

    peoples rather

    than by

    professional

    armies,

    the boundary

    between military

    and

    general

    history

    became very

    difficult to

    trace.

    The

    one

    merged almost

    imperceptibly into

    the

    other.

    It

    is

    indeed

    almost absurd

    to

    categorize the

    conflict of

    1914-18 as if

    it

    were just

    another war

    between

    European

    states and

    their

    auxiliaries

    on

    the

    model

    of

    those of

    Louis

    XIV or

    Napoleon or

    Bismarck; a

    simple

    clash

    of

    the

    Great

    Powers to settle the

    balance between

    them.

    Both at

    the time and since, The Great War was widely seen as a cataclysm

    resulting

    from the

    interplay of

    forces almost

    beyond human

    control; a

    World

    Crisis

    (the term

    used

    by Winston

    Churchill as

    the title

    for his

    1.

    Arden Bucholz,

    Hans

    Delbruck

    and the

    German

    Military

    Establishment

    (Iowa City,

    1989).

    128

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    World War One: The Crisis in European History

    own history of the war, of which the

    first

    volume

    appeared

    in

    1923)2

    that transformed European society and shattered its states

    system,

    destroying four great empires and

    provoking revolutionary upheavals

    whose effects are still working themselves out. It was this sense of the

    almost cosmic dimension of the conflict that led to such widespread

    dissatisfaction with the simplistic

    war-guilt explanations

    and accusa-

    tions

    that

    were

    current

    after

    the war;

    a dissatisfaction

    that was

    not

    created,

    however

    much

    it

    may have been

    exploited, by

    German

    historical

    revisionism, and has not been

    entirely laid to rest by the controversy

    over the work of Fritz Fischer.3 Few

    historians today

    are

    content

    to

    seek

    the

    causes

    of

    the war in

    the diplomatic archives,

    or

    even

    in

    the

    military

    plans

    of

    the Great Powers. Many, if not indeed

    most,

    now

    interpret

    it as

    part of a general crisis-economic, social and cultural-affecting the

    whole

    of

    European society at the turn of the

    century.

    The search for

    the causes

    of

    the

    war

    will

    no

    doubt continue at

    various levels of explanation for as

    long as historians write. But it is

    doubtful

    whether the question would be so

    hotly debated

    if

    the war had

    not

    had such far-reaching social,

    economic, and political consequences;

    if it had been fought in a different manner, with a different outcome; if

    it had ended before the exhaustion of the

    participants

    and the

    entry

    of

    the United

    States. And

    for

    an explanation

    of

    why

    the war took the

    course that it

    did, why it lasted

    for

    so

    long,

    and

    why

    no

    decision

    was

    reached on the battlefield, we have to consult the military historians.

    Although a vast amount of

    military history has been written

    about

    the First World

    War,

    I

    do not know of

    any single satisfactory operational

    account

    of

    it.

    (I

    do

    not,

    incidentally,

    know

    of

    a

    single satisfactory

    general account

    of

    the war itself, but that is more understandable.)

    The

    reason is

    clear; it is extraordinarily

    difficult

    to

    treat

    the

    military aspects

    of this war in

    the discrete fashion

    that traditional

    military

    historians

    prefer and their readers expect.

    Individual campaigns

    or battles can be

    insulated and

    described: the Battles

    of the

    Marne

    and

    of

    Verdun,

    of

    Tannenberg

    and of

    Caporetto, the Dardanelles and the Palestine

    cam-

    paigns, provide examples. But

    it is difficult to do this unless we take

    them out

    of

    a

    highly complex

    context,

    without

    which

    they

    have

    in

    themselves

    very little significance.

    With the

    possible exception

    of

    the

    Battle of the Marne (which was not a true battle at all) these were all

    episodes

    in

    the

    war,

    rather than

    decisive

    turning points

    such as

    Austerlitz,

    Trafalgar,

    or

    Sedan.

    2.

    Winston

    S.

    Churchill,

    The

    World

    Crisis

    (London,

    1923).

    3.

    Fritz

    Fischer,

    Germany's

    War

    Aims

    in

    World

    War

    I

    (New

    York,

    1967).

    MILITARY HISTORY

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    MICHAEL

    HOWARD

    Military historians are most at home when dealing with strategies of

    manoeuvre; the operations of armed forces involved in a series of

    engagements leading up to decisive encounters. In this respect the

    Second World War provides a far happier hunting ground

    for

    the

    military historian than does the First. Although that war was (for the

    Europeans at least) quite as total as the First World War-in some

    respects considerably more-its course was determined by a series of

    military operations directed according to rational strategic concepts;

    operations each of which had a clearly defined outcome, with unambig-

    uous winners

    and losers.

    The

    First World War

    was

    not

    like

    that,

    and

    military historians can at least help to explain why it was not.

    Few people doubted in 1914 that a long war would be shattering for

    European society. The populations

    of Western

    Europe

    were

    believed

    by

    their

    rulers to

    be

    highly

    volatile.

    Socialism

    was

    rife,

    labor strikes

    were

    endemic,

    and

    for

    the

    past

    decade the Second

    International

    had

    been

    mounting increasingly effective demonstrations against

    war. Even if

    the

    people themselves initially supported

    a

    war,

    their

    capacity

    to endure

    the

    prolonged disruption

    and

    hardship

    that war

    would

    bring

    in

    its wake

    was a matter of widespread doubt. The former Chief of the German

    General Staff, Graf Alfred von Schlieffen, expressed

    this

    in

    his famous

    article

    of 1909 when

    he wrote

    that a

    strategy

    of

    attrition

    is not

    feasible

    when it requires the support of millions (of men)

    and milliards

    (of

    marks).

    4

    It was this prospect

    that

    made

    it

    so important

    to

    keep

    the war

    short, and drove military

    leaders to

    adopt strategies

    that

    optimized

    rapid operational success.

    The

    much-despised

    Cult

    of

    the Offensive

    was less a

    question

    of

    irrational

    vitalism,5

    as it

    has so often

    been

    depicted, than

    of

    perceived operational necessity. Military

    commanders

    mobilized the largest forces of which they were capable

    and

    directed

    them so

    as

    to

    bring

    their adversaries to battle

    under the

    most

    favorable

    possible

    circumstances

    in order to

    force

    a clear

    and victorious decision.

    4.

    Reprinted from the Deutsche

    Revue of

    January

    1909 in Graf

    Alfred von

    Schlieffen, Gesammelte

    Schriften

    (Berlin, 1913), 1: 11-22.

    5.

    The idea

    that the cult of the

    offensive

    was

    in

    itself irrational had

    been

    examined and largely

    endorsed by

    Jack Snyder, The

    Ideology of

    the

    Offensive:

    Military Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914 (Cornell, 1984). In fact

    German

    offensives were uniformly

    successful

    throughout 1914 and

    1915,

    and

    continued to be

    so on the Eastern,

    Southeastern,

    and Southern fronts

    in

    1916

    and

    1917.

    French,

    Russian, and Austrian

    failures

    were due less to mistaken

    concepts

    than

    to sheer

    operational

    inefficiency. See

    Douglas

    Porch,

    The March

    to

    the

    Marne:

    The

    French

    Army,

    1870-1914

    (Cambridge,

    1981),

    and Norman

    Stone,

    The

    Eastern

    Front,

    1914-191 7

    (London, 1975).

    130 SPECIAL ISSUE

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    World

    War One: The Crisis in

    European History

    They were of course working on the

    assumption that their

    adversaries

    could

    be brought to battle, and that

    the battles

    would

    be at

    least as

    decisive as in

    previous wars. As we know, the

    battles did not prove

    decisive, when indeed

    they

    were

    fought at all; so by the end

    of

    1914,

    although European armies between them had already suffered nearly a

    million casualties,

    the war remained un-won.

    In

    1915 the German High

    Command still saw no reason to

    despair

    of

    the traditional

    strategy of manoeuvre bringing about

    a decision, even

    if

    it took longer than expected.

    True, Erich von

    Falkenhayn, the Chief

    of

    the German

    General Staff, denied to the commanders on

    the Eastern

    Front, Ludendorff

    and von

    Hindenburg, the opportunity they demanded

    of

    repeating the

    Schlieffen Plan

    against the Russians with another huge

    battle of encirclement; but none the less their operations in 1915

    rescued the

    Austrians, eliminated all Russian threat to

    German territory,

    and

    drew the

    Western

    powers into a series of fruitless offensives in

    an

    effort

    to relieve

    pressure

    on

    their

    allies.

    But another

    year went by

    without a decision; Italy had entered

    the war against Germany, and the

    Western allies were

    still undefeated. Britain had

    hardly begun to draw

    on

    her huge resources and those

    made available to

    her by the United

    States. Could a

    traditional strategy of manoeuvre now

    be as effective on

    the

    Western

    Front

    as

    it

    had

    been

    in

    the East?

    Von Falkenhayn thought not.6 He saw no reason why the Western

    allies

    should

    not

    be able to

    repel

    a

    German

    attack

    on

    their

    heavily

    fortified positions

    as effectively as the Germans had resisted their

    own

    throughout

    the

    previous year.

    So

    he revived

    the

    concept

    of

    attrition,

    the

    Ermattungsstrategie

    that

    von

    Schlieffen had dismissed

    as

    impossible.

    German society had shown itself

    unexpectedly stalwart

    over the past

    year

    under the strain of a

    prolonged

    war,

    but he believed

    the

    French

    to

    be more

    vulnerable. The French

    army

    must be

    encouraged

    to

    bleed

    itself

    to death by

    being compelled to recapture

    an

    objective

    that the

    Germans had

    been able

    to

    seize at

    comparatively

    low

    cost. The

    objective

    would be

    the fortress

    of

    Verdun,

    a

    name hallowed

    in

    the

    military history

    of

    France.

    The low

    cost

    would

    be achieved

    by

    a

    massive use

    of

    heavy

    artillery.

    The ultimate

    target

    was

    the

    will of the

    French

    people

    to

    continue the

    war.

    Von

    Falkenhayn's

    strategy

    did

    not

    work;

    not

    because it failed

    to

    inflict

    nearly lethal

    damage upon

    the French

    army,

    which

    it

    did,

    but

    because

    the Germans

    had as

    yet

    failed

    to

    develop

    an

    operational strategy

    that

    enabled them to do this without suffering equal losses themselves. The

    same

    difficulty

    was

    to

    confront the

    Western allies when

    they

    launched

    their

    offensive on the Somme later in

    the summer

    of 1916. The

    British

    6. Erich von Falkenhayn,

    General Headquarters and its Critical

    Decisions,

    1914-1916 (London, 1921).

    MILITARY

    HISTORY

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    MICHAEL

    HIOWARD

    Commander

    in

    Chief, Sir

    Douglas

    Haig,

    initially believed

    that

    this

    attack might

    break the

    strategic

    deadlock and

    restore battlefield

    mobility,

    but his

    subordinates

    were more skeptical; and even

    Haig soon

    accepted

    that this was

    a

    battle

    of

    attrition

    fought

    to inflict

    losses on the

    enemy

    rather than to gain ground; a battle to be prolonged until the late

    autumn and

    renewed the

    following year.7

    The

    main instrument for

    infliction

    of

    such

    losses, on the Somme as

    at

    Verdun, was not so much

    manpower as

    artillery.

    This

    required

    the

    mobilization

    not

    only

    of

    manpower

    but

    of

    industry,

    and the

    reordering

    of

    all

    domestic

    priorities to produce guns and

    ammunition

    on

    the

    enormous scale

    requisite for

    military

    needs. The

    British,

    once

    it

    became

    evident at the

    end of 1914

    that there was

    to

    be

    no

    rapid operational

    decision

    in

    the

    field, had

    already begun

    such a

    reordering

    in 1915 with

    the creation of a

    Ministry

    for

    Munitions under the

    dynamic

    leadership

    of David

    Lloyd George-a

    reordering

    that in

    its

    turn

    transformed

    labor

    relations and

    brought working-class

    leaders

    into full

    partnership

    in

    the

    running

    of

    the

    war.

    The

    Germans followed suit the

    following year

    with

    the

    Hindenburg

    Programme,

    when

    the scale

    of

    the Materielschlacht in

    which

    they

    had

    involved themselves became clear. Thus

    by

    the end

    of

    1916

    the search

    for

    victory on the battlefield

    was

    resulting

    in

    nothing

    less than

    the social and

    political

    transformation of

    the

    belligerent

    societies.8 Not only the armies but the peoples of Europe were involved

    in a total

    war; one whose strains did

    eventually precipitate

    the revolutions

    so

    gloomily anticipated

    before

    1914. Even the victors

    were

    to

    emerge

    so

    badly traumatized that

    they

    were unable to assume the

    subsequent

    burden of

    creating

    a

    more stable

    European,

    let alone World Order.

    Counterfactual history is a

    more legitimate

    activity for military

    historians

    than for most. It is their

    business to

    explain why commanders

    took

    certain

    decisions

    and to trace

    their

    consequences. In evaluating

    them, they have to

    assume that

    those commanders might

    have taken

    other

    decisions, which

    would have

    had different consequences.

    It is thus

    reasonable for

    them to

    ask what might have

    happened in the

    First World

    War

    if

    the

    military

    leaders had taken

    different decisions; if

    their opera-

    tional

    strategies had

    been more

    successful, and they had not

    found it

    7. On this, see particularly Trevor Wilson and Robin Prior, Command on the

    Western Front:

    The

    Military Career

    of Sir

    Henry

    Rawlinson, 1914-1918

    (Oxford,

    1992).

    8. For

    the

    impact of

    military

    requirements on

    social change

    see, for

    Britain,

    Trevor

    Wilson,

    The

    Myriad Faces

    of

    War:

    Britain

    and the

    Great

    War,

    1914-1918

    (Cambridge, 1986). For

    Germany, see G.

    D.

    Feldman,

    Army,

    Industry and Labor

    in

    Germany,

    1914-191 8

    (Princeton, 1966).

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    necessary to adopt a

    strategy of

    attrition.

    With

    greater

    military

    skill,

    might the war

    have been fought

    and

    won

    without bringing

    about the

    collapse

    of

    European society?

    Such

    certainly

    was

    the

    assumption

    of

    postwar critics who

    accused

    the

    younger von Moltke

    of

    having

    watered

    down the Schlieffen Plan; or of British Easterners like Winston

    Churchill and

    David

    Lloyd George who argued

    that a reinforcement

    of

    other

    theaters

    might have avoided

    the deadlock

    on the Western

    Front;

    or of

    analysts

    like Liddell

    Hart

    who

    believed

    that deadlock could

    have

    been broken

    by more skilful

    tactics.9 Behind

    such criticism

    lies

    the

    assumption

    that alternative

    strategic

    decisions

    or

    superior

    operational

    skills

    might

    have

    avoided deadlock, have

    brought

    about decision

    without

    catastrophe, and so

    saved

    the old

    European

    order from revolution

    and

    collapse. Upon

    such

    military assessments there

    thus

    hang immense

    political

    consequences.

    The most

    plausible of these

    hypotheses

    concerns

    the

    Schlieffen

    Plan.

    Most

    historians today write on

    the

    assumption

    that the

    Schlieffen

    Plan

    was foredoomed to

    failure, and

    that the offensive

    strategies

    of

    1914

    were

    in

    themselves irrational. Neither

    hypothesis is

    self-evident. We

    will

    not

    enter here

    into the

    question,

    whether the

    plan

    would have

    been

    more

    successful

    if

    Schlieffen's

    original

    instructions had been

    more

    closely followed.10

    Certainly

    even as

    modified

    in 1914

    it

    was such

    a

    grandiose and mechanistic affair that it demanded great good fortune

    to

    succeed

    in

    its

    totality.

    But whatever

    variant

    of it was

    adopted,

    it

    called

    for

    commanders whose

    nerve

    was

    stronger than

    that

    of

    their

    adversaries,

    and

    who

    had the

    capacity

    to

    improvise

    when

    things

    started

    to

    go

    wrong,

    as almost

    certainly they

    would-and

    as

    in

    fact

    they

    had

    in 1870.

    Given

    such

    commanders,

    could

    German

    strategy

    not have been

    adjusted

    to

    meet

    unexpected circumstances, as it

    had been

    in

    that

    earlier

    war,

    and

    still

    achieved

    its

    goals,

    if

    by

    rather

    different

    means?

    There was

    no

    lack of such

    enterprising officers

    in

    the

    higher

    ranks

    of

    the

    German

    army.

    We

    may

    wonder

    what

    might

    have

    happened,

    for

    example,

    if

    Ludendorff

    had

    been

    entrusted

    in

    September

    1914

    with the

    kind of

    responsibilities

    on

    the Western Front

    that

    he

    was instead

    given

    in

    the

    East.

    If

    the German armies

    had continued to

    advance,

    pushing

    the French

    away

    from

    Paris

    and

    detaching

    the

    minimum

    force

    necessary

    to

    contain

    the French Sixth

    Army

    and the B.E.F. on

    their

    right flank,

    might

    they

    not still

    have presented their

    political masters with

    a

    decisive

    operational

    victory that would

    have knocked France out of the

    war,

    brought Russia to the peace table, left Britain isolated, and achieved the

    mastery

    of

    Europe as

    decisively as did their

    successors

    twenty-five

    years

    9.

    Churchill,

    World Crisis;

    David

    Lloyd

    George, War

    Memoirs

    (London, 1936);

    B.

    H.

    Liddell Hart,

    History

    of the

    World

    War (London,

    1934).

    10.

    Gerhard Ritter,

    The

    Schlieffen Plan:

    Critique of

    a

    Myth

    (London,

    1958).

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    later?

    What

    if

    Joffre

    had been as neurotic as von

    Moltke,

    or von Moltke

    as

    phlegmatic and adaptable as

    Joffre?

    But

    this was probably the last

    chance for

    either side to achieve an

    operational decision

    on so

    Napoleonic a scale. Although, as

    we

    have

    seen, another year was to pass before the belligerents consciously

    adopted

    attritional

    strategies, none

    of

    their operational

    options

    in

    1915

    held out

    comparable

    hope of such rapid and total

    success. Neither side

    had yet

    developed the techniques that would make

    breakthrough possible

    on the

    Western Front

    where

    alone

    decisive

    military success

    could

    bring

    immediate

    political results; while the

    strategical

    alternatives

    offered

    by

    Churchill

    and

    the

    Easterners

    in

    London-even a

    successful Dardanelles

    campaign-merely

    offered the option of

    an equally long

    war,

    if one

    fought under

    marginally more favorable conditions for

    the Allies.

    Military historians may

    reasonably suggest

    that Germany did stand

    a

    good chance of

    achieving

    decisive victory

    in

    the field in

    1914,

    and

    that

    under

    more enterprising

    commanders she

    might

    well have

    done

    so. But

    they are not in

    a position to answer the

    question,

    whether

    such a

    victory

    would have

    brought about peace; above

    all, a peace

    that might

    have

    preserved the old

    order

    in

    Europe. For that we have

    to

    turn

    to the

    general

    historian, who has studied

    the nature

    of

    the

    belligerent societies

    and

    the

    issues that

    appeared to be at stake.

    The first point that such a historian is likely to make is that Germany

    in 1914

    was

    no

    longer

    controlled by

    a

    Bismarck concerned with

    fighting

    a limited

    war

    and then

    reconstructing

    a viable balance of

    power.

    The

    famous

    September

    Programme

    of 1914

    indicates

    the

    peace

    terms

    that the German

    ruling

    classes intended

    to

    impose

    on

    their defeated

    adversaries.11

    France would have been reduced

    to

    the status of

    Italy,

    if

    not of

    Spain.

    The Habsburg

    Monarchy would

    have

    survived,

    but

    its

    position

    in

    the

    Balkans would

    have

    been

    explicitly

    underwritten

    by

    German economic and

    military power. Russia would have been enfeebled

    by the loss of

    her western provinces.

    The

    Continent

    would,

    in

    fact, have

    been subjected to a

    German

    hegemony

    almost as total

    as

    that of

    Napoleon.

    Britain,

    had she continued to

    fight,

    would

    have

    done

    so

    alone, and

    Germany

    could

    have

    renewed the naval race

    against

    her

    under

    conditions

    of

    considerable

    advantage.

    The

    British

    leadership

    in 1914

    would

    thus have been

    even

    less

    likely

    than

    were their

    successors

    in 1940 to

    accept

    any

    kind

    of

    compromise

    peace:

    not

    that

    the German

    leadership

    of 1914

    was

    likely

    to

    have

    offered one. For a significant number of influential Germans, Britain

    was the

    preferred

    adversary, and her humiliation the ultimate

    object

    of

    the

    entire

    war. However

    complete

    the German

    victory

    by land,

    a

    11. Fischer, Germany's War Aims; Hans

    W.

    Gatzke, Germany's

    Drive to

    the

    West (Baltimore, 1950).

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    prolonged Napoleonic conflict with Britain was still inevitable.

    So

    long

    as the British could preserve their sea power, they

    could survive

    as

    they

    had survived in the past and, they confidently

    believed, ultimately

    win

    as they had won

    in

    the past.

    To judge the prospects for such survival, we turn to the naval

    historians. In 1914 the general expectation was that the issue at sea,

    like that on land, would be settled by an

    immediate operational decision

    brought about by a clash of battlefleets. When

    it was not, both sides

    settled into a

    conflict

    of

    attrition

    at

    sea

    as

    they

    were

    soon

    to

    do on

    land;

    but it was a conflict of a kind with which naval

    strategists were more

    familiar than

    were military.

    The

    British

    had

    prepared

    for

    a

    strategy

    of

    blockade, and felt comfortable with it. But they

    did not feel comfortable

    for very long.12 Submarine warfare introduced

    a new operational

    element with

    which they found themselves quite

    unable

    to

    cope.

    After two years of successful submarine warfare,

    the German High

    Command believed, at the end of 1916, that

    they had

    in

    their hands a

    war-winning weapon, restraints on whose use were purely political.

    Naval historians might be able to tell us what

    the prospects might

    have

    been of submarine war successfully bringing

    Britain to terms if the

    United States had not entered the conflict. But to explain why

    the

    German government decided to risk American

    hostility at all, we have

    to turn back to the political historian who will explain the domestic

    situation

    in

    Germany

    in

    the autumn

    of

    1916,

    and the

    part

    that this

    played

    in

    the German government's

    decision

    to

    adopt unrestricted

    submarine warfare and defy the

    United States.13 Certainly

    no

    purely

    military specialist can explain

    the

    psychology

    of

    the people who,

    in full

    awareness

    of the risks

    involved,

    took

    a

    decision that was

    in the

    long

    run

    to

    prove

    so

    catastrophic.

    But

    in

    any

    event

    by

    1917 it

    was probably

    too late for a German

    victory to prevent the social disintegration

    of at least Eastern Europe.

    The Russian Revolution

    was imminent, and

    with the death of the Emperor

    Franz Josef in December 1916 the Habsburg Monarchy was widely

    regarded as unrescuable.

    Within

    Germany

    itself, the Reichstag Peace

    Resolution

    of

    summer

    1917

    showed

    that

    political

    disintegration

    had

    gone so far that even total military victory could

    not

    have prevented

    12.

    Avner Offer,

    The First World War: An

    Agrarian

    Interpretation (Oxford,

    1989). Offner's interpretation, based as it is on the mind-set of the Britishruling

    classes,

    seems to me

    overly subtle. British

    blockade

    strategy in fact, followed

    traditional

    lines that

    required little

    adjustment to deal with the

    special circumstances

    of

    the

    First

    World War.

    13. This has in

    fact been done

    by Gerhard Ritter in Vol.

    3 of his

    study The

    Sword and

    the

    Sceptre: The Problem of

    Militarism in

    Germany,

    4

    vols. (Coral

    Gables,

    Fla., 1969-73).

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    vast

    postwar political

    turmoil. The

    effects of

    two

    years

    of

    attritional

    strategy

    were

    irreversible,

    irrespective of who now won

    the

    war.

    In

    dealing

    with

    that attritional

    strategy,

    military

    historians

    have on

    the whole

    been

    as

    unhappy

    as the

    commanders

    whose

    operations

    they

    have

    described.

    For the

    latter,

    there was

    always

    a

    large measure of

    ambiguity. Von

    Falkenhayn at Verdun

    found

    it

    impossible

    to

    translate

    his

    strategic concept of

    inflicting

    crippling

    losses

    on

    the French

    while

    minimizing

    those of

    the

    Germans into

    operational

    reality.

    Indeed, he

    failed to

    make

    his

    subordinate

    commanders

    understand the nature

    of

    his

    object

    at

    all.14

    In

    the

    same way, as

    we

    have already

    seen,

    there was

    within the

    British

    High

    Command

    a

    fundamental

    ambiguity

    about

    the

    object of

    the Battle of

    the

    Somme, as

    indeed

    about

    most of the

    further

    offensives on

    the

    Western Front.

    Most

    of the

    army

    commanders con-

    cerned,

    especially Rawlinson

    and

    Plumer, saw

    the

    offensives as

    aiming

    at

    limited

    objectives

    to be

    gained by

    maximum

    use of

    firepower

    in

    order

    gradually

    to erode

    enemy

    strength

    with

    minimal

    losses to

    the

    attackers.15

    But

    Haig,

    while

    paying

    lip-service to

    these

    objectives, still

    thought in

    terms

    of an

    operational strategy

    aimed

    at seizing

    military

    objectives far behind the lines. And indeed it is difficult for field com-

    manders to

    devise

    plans and to

    motivate their

    troops

    without

    being

    given

    some

    kind of

    operational

    objective. It

    is not easy

    to

    accept the

    harsh

    fact that

    the

    process of

    fighting

    in itself and

    the

    killing

    off

    of

    the

    enemy

    is

    more

    important

    than

    any

    physical objective

    to

    be

    attained.

    For

    whatever

    reason, British

    military

    historians

    describing the

    Battle

    of

    the

    Somme,

    and indeed

    the

    fighting on the

    Western Front

    in

    general,

    have

    found it

    difficult to

    focus on an

    analysis

    of

    the operations

    themselves.

    They

    have let

    themselves be

    diverted,

    either upwards to

    a discussion of

    high

    strategy and

    a

    debate over

    the rationale for

    those

    operations;

    or

    downward,

    to

    compiling battlefield memoirs

    and

    analyzing

    the

    nature

    of

    trench

    warfare.

    It is only

    during

    the last ten

    years

    or so that

    we

    have

    seen

    serious

    operational

    analyses,

    focussing

    on

    the technical

    problems

    as

    they presented

    themselves

    to

    commanders

    at different

    levels,

    by

    historians such

    as

    the

    Canadian T. H.

    Travers

    and

    the

    Australians

    Trevor

    Wilson

    and Robin

    Prior.16

    They

    have

    given

    us

    a far

    deeper

    understanding

    than have

    any previous historians

    of the

    true

    nature

    of

    those campaigns, of the varying degree of competence of the generals

    14.

    See

    Alistair

    Horne, The

    Price of

    Glory:

    Verdun,

    1916

    (New

    York,

    1978).

    15. See

    Wilson and

    Prior,

    Command

    on

    the

    Western

    Front.

    16.

    Ibid.

    T. H.

    Travers,

    The

    Killing

    Ground: The

    British

    Army, the

    Western

    Front

    and the

    Emergence

    of

    Modern

    Warfare,

    1900-1918 (New

    York,

    1987).

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    concerned, and of the

    enormous organizational

    complexity

    involved in

    their planning and execution.

    After

    reading

    them we

    can better

    appre-

    ciate the

    professional qualities, as well as the cultural

    and

    other limita-

    tions,

    of the

    commanders involved.

    But even these works still leave open the question: how far did the

    attacks

    on

    the Western Front achieve their

    objective

    in

    terms

    of

    the

    attrition they

    inflicted?

    A

    study

    of

    success

    or

    failure

    in

    terms

    of

    ground

    gained

    or

    comparative casualties suffered-a matter over

    which

    the

    British official

    historians agonized

    for

    years-does not

    in

    itself get us

    very far. Behind such statistics lie the

    deeper questions, whether

    compar-

    able casualties

    could

    have been

    inflicted with less

    cost;

    whether

    greater

    operational

    skill

    might have

    rendered it

    unnecessary

    to resort

    to such a

    strategy

    at

    all;

    and-a

    question

    that takes us

    beyond

    the

    competence

    of

    military

    historians

    as

    such-precisely

    what role

    this attrition on the

    battlefield played in the overall

    weakening of the Central Powers and in

    the eventual

    collapse of their societies.

    For while

    the Western allies, in

    particular the British, were exhausting

    themselves by

    a

    strategy of attrition, the

    Germans were

    reinventing

    a

    strategy

    of

    manoeuvre;

    or

    rather,

    tactics that

    made

    such a

    strategy

    once

    more

    possible.

    In

    the

    spring

    offensives of 1918

    they

    used them

    to

    shatter the

    Allied lines

    in

    the West.

    Again,

    we

    look

    to

    military historians

    to explain how they did this and, yet more important, why the Allies

    had

    not

    developed such tactics sooner, and rendered

    unnecessary

    the

    bloodletting

    of

    1916 and 1917. But here again, the full explanation

    cannot be

    provided

    by the military historian.

    It

    requires

    a

    profounder

    understanding of

    the nature

    of

    German

    society and

    that of

    its

    adver-

    saries.

    7

    Even

    so,

    a final

    paradox

    remains.

    Why

    did Ludendorff

    not

    use

    his

    rediscovered

    operational skills in a true strategy

    of

    manoeuvre

    directed

    against

    a

    key objective such as Paris,

    or

    Allied communications with the

    Channel ports?

    Why instead did he launch that series

    of

    uncoordinated

    attacks with

    the

    general attritional objective

    of

    weakening

    Allied morale

    and

    making

    them

    friedensbereit, ready

    for

    peace? Why

    did he

    not

    revert

    to the

    traditional

    operational goal

    of

    using

    his forces

    to obtain

    decisive

    victory

    in

    the

    field,

    when it

    appeared,

    for the first time since

    1914,

    to

    lie

    in

    his power? The explanation

    for

    that decision

    perhaps

    also

    lies

    beyond the competence

    of

    the purely

    military

    historian.

    As

    for

    the final Allied offensives of

    1918, these are treated all

    too

    often in histories of the war (though not of course by Americans) as a

    17. Bruce Gudmundsson, Stormtroop Tactics: Innovation in the German

    Army,

    1900-1918

    (New York, 1989).

    See also Michael

    Geyer,

    German

    Strategy

    in

    the Age

    of

    Machine Warfare, 1914-1945,

    in

    Peter Paret, ed.,

    Makers

    of Modern

    Strategyfrom Machiavelli

    to

    the Nuclear Age (Princeton, 1986).

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    kind

    of

    anticlimax after the drama

    of

    the failed German offensives; a

    mere following up of an exhausted enemy, rather than the skilful

    exercise

    of

    hard-won skills

    by armies that had painfully learned their

    trade

    over the

    past four years and

    were

    now being commanded with

    considerable competence. Even so, in spite of their successes, those

    armies

    still

    did not achieve a clear operational decision

    in

    the field; and

    to

    assess the

    impact

    of

    their victories on German

    public opinion, on the

    morale

    of

    the German forces, and on the decisions of the German High

    Command, we have to turn away yet again from the sphere of military

    history and ask the general historian to tell us about developments on

    the domestic front. The analysis of the causes

    of

    Germany's collapse

    demands

    an

    expertise at least as far-ranging as does that

    of

    the causes

    of

    the

    war itself.18

    We can end only with the banal conclusion that

    in

    dealing with a

    conflict

    as

    total in its ramifications

    as the First World

    War

    the

    military

    historian

    can

    operate only

    as

    part

    of a

    team; playing

    a central

    and

    indispensable role,

    but

    providing explanations

    that

    themselves are

    only

    partial

    and

    need to be seen in a far broader context than the operational

    activities

    they describe. Indeed

    a

    fully adequate history

    of

    that

    war can

    probably only be written by a general historian who has taken the

    trouble to

    acquire

    as full an

    expertise

    in

    military

    and

    naval affairs as

    he

    possesses in political, social and economic matters. In the opinion of

    the

    present writer,

    such a

    maestro has yet to be

    found.

    18.

    There are

    of course

    many

    studies of this. The

    starting

    point must be

    the

    documentary collection

    by

    R.

    H.

    Lutz,

    The Fall

    of

    the German

    Empire

    1914-1918,

    2 vols.

    (New York,

    1969).

    138

    SPECIAL ISSUE


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