HREG1

• The Consumer Voice for Renewable Energy

• Activities– Meet Quarterly

– Internet Yahoo Chat Group

– Annual Houston Solar Tour

– Earth Day Booths

– Educate Houston

• Non-profit, local section of the Texas Solar Energy Society (TXSES)

www.txses.org/hreg

The Renewable Energy Solution

written by Chris Boyer 2006

Houston Renewable Energy Group

HREG2

US Energy Demand Growing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Tota

l US

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n (Q

uads

/yr)

0.E+00

1.E+08

2.E+08

3.E+08

4.E+08

5.E+08

6.E+08

Pop

ulat

ion

Energy ConsumptionEIA PredictionPEW Low CasePEW High CasePopulation

HREG3

The Energy Problem1. Rising cost of

fossil fuel extraction

2. Trade deficit3. War over finite

resources4. Pollution and

climate change5. Threat of nuclear

proliferation and waste disposal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Wor

ld A

nnua

l Oil

Con

sum

ptio

n (Q

uad

Btu

/yr)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Oil

Res

erve

s (Q

uad

Btu

)

Consumption - Data Consumption - Model PredictedTotal Reserves Unknown Reserves

HREG4

The Renewables Solution

• Direct Solar• Wind• Hydro• Biomass• Geothermal

• Its Plentiful• Its Everywhere• It lasts “forever”• Its Healthy• Its Safe

HREG5

All the energy we use could be supplied by Renewables!

HREG6

Solar Energy80,000 Terawatts of Solar Power fall on the Earth

constantly, compared to 14.5 Terawatts current used for human power.

• Solar Electricity – Photovolatics (PV)• Solar Thermal Heating

– Hot water – residential and commercial– Utility Steam & Electricity– Cooking

• Solar Building Design– Shade & venting– Solar heating

HREG7

Solar Thermal

HREG8

Solar Thermal: Hot Water• Hot Water roof systems

subsidize hot water.

• $500 to $6,000 for system

• Last ~20 years

• 1 to 2 ft2 of panel for each gallon used per day.

• 4 yr payback

• If hot water use does not match solar availability, economics is not so attractive.

Panels

Pump

Tank

Controller

HREG9

Solar Thermal: Utility Electricity

$1million/MWp Capital Investment20-60% Capacity Factor (100% with N.G. Hybrid)5000 acres for a 1 GW plant

HREG10

Solar Photovoltaic

HREG11

Solar PV Integrated into Structures

HREG12

Solar PV: Grid Connected• $6000 to $10,000 per

kWp Power Installed – 50% Modules

– 25% Inverter

– 25% Installation

• $1 to $0.18/kWh– Sun Hours/day

– Interest Rate

– Incentives

• 1 kW ~ 100 ft2 @ noon

Inverter

Voltage(DC)

Voltage(AC)

PV arrayElectric grid

Goal is $3000/kWp installed,or ~$0.10/kWh by 2025

HREG13

Advancing Solar PV Technology

• Silicon– Crystalline– Polycrystalline– Amorphous– Ribbon– Nanocrystalline

• CdTe • GaAs• CIS/CIGS• Dye-Sensitized• Organic

• Wafer P-N Junction• Thin Film P-N Junction• Multi-Junction• Quantum Dots• Photoelectrochemical

New Materials New Structures

Related Technologies-digital camera-LEDs-Solid state lasers

HREG14

P-N Junction Solar Cell Structure

HREG15

Photochemical Cell Structure

Structure for high-efficiency (50%) organic PV cell basedon a nanostructured substrate onto which thin layers of molecular multi-junctions are grown and anchored onto the nanostructure surface. The red circle denotes an electron acceptor; the blue square, an electron donor; and the yellow circle, a metal nanoparticle.

HREG16

PV cost as a function of Efficiency

HREG17

Improvements in Cell Efficiency

HREG18

Solar PV: What & Where

75

95

195

1100

60

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Consumer Products

Comm. & Signal

Off-Grid Res&Com

Grid Connected

Central Utility

MW/yr

2000

2005

486991

5371.3

12232

5

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Si Single CrystalSi Polycrystal

Si RibbonSi Amorphous

Si Amor/CrystalCdTe

CIS

MW/yr

HREG19

Solar PV: Who0 100 200 300 400 500

Sharp (J)

Q-Cells(E)

Kyocera (J)

Sanyo (J)

Mitsubishi (J)

Schott Solar (E)

BP Solar (US,E)

SunTech (Ch)

Motech (Tw)

Shell Solar (US,E)

Isofoton (E)

Deutsche Cell (E)

E-ton (Tw)

Photowatt (E)

Sunpower (Ph)

Others (<20 MW)

Cell Production, MW/yr in 2005

(Ever-Q)

HREG20

Learning Curve for PV Production

HREG21

Potential US Solar PV Growth

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Cu

mu

lati

ve I

nst

alle

d C

apac

ity

(GW

)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ce

ll P

rod

uct

ion

, GW

/yr

Actual World Growth 44%

Prediction based on 20 to 25% annual growth.

Note: Capacity factor is 0.2

HREG22

Wind Energy• 60 GW Installed in the

world by 2005• Growing 20%/yr worldwide• $1million/MW Cost• Capacity factor 0.47• Clean; no water needed• Dual Land Use• 1000 GW possible in the US• Each tower is 1 to 3 MW.

HREG23

Tale of 2 GW

Nuclear Wind

HREG24

Too Many Wind Towers?

One coal plant equals about 1500 Wind towers. Over a Million oil and gas wells were drilled in Texas at a cost of ~ $1 Million each. The same as the price of a wind tower.

A Million Wind Towers would equal over 600 coal fired plants. There are ~50 coal plants in Texas

HREG25

Wind: Who & Where

34

17

15

11

6

4

3

2

2

2

4

0 10 20 30 40

Vestas

Gamesa

Enercon

GE Wind

Siemens

Suzlon

REPower

Mitsubishi

Ecotecnia

Nordex

Others

Market Share

Company Country34.7

17.2

14.1

6.4

6.3

2.6

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.6

10.8

0 10 20 30 40

Germany

Spain

US

Denmark

India

Italy

Netherlands

Japan

UK

China

Others

Share of Cumulative Installations

Data from year 2004: BTM World Market Update

HREG26

Potential US Wind Growth

1

10

100

1000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Cu

mu

lati

ve I

nsta

lled

Win

d C

ap

acit

y (

GW

)

Actual

Current Trend

Aggressive Growth

EIA Prediction

NREL Goal

HREG27

Biomass Energy

• Sources:– Energy crops– Crop residue– Animal manure– Municipal Solid Waste– Forrest waste

• 1/2 the energy/lb of coal.• 10 Quads/yr available in US• Crop considerations:

– water usage– fertilizer requirements– soil depletion.

Corn is bad

Switchgrass is good

HREG28

Biomass Energy Pathways• Direct Combustion1. Solids Heat

2. Solids Combined Heat & Power (CHP)

• Direct Extraction• Oils & fats Esterification Biodiesel• Certain plants Solvent Extraction Isoprenoid hydrocarbons

3. Biochemical4. Plant matter Hydrolysis Fermentation Ethanol

5. Organic sludge Anerobic digestion Biogas CHP or H2

6. Thermochemical7. Organic matter Pyrolysis biogas or bio-oil

8. Organic matter Gasification Syngas CHP, FT Liquids, MeOH/DME, EtOH, or H2

BEST!

FAIR

POOR

POOR

HREG29

Ethanol• US produced 3.4 billion

gallons in 2005.

• 85 US Companies, most sized at 20-60 million gal/yr, ADM has over a billion gal/yr capacity.

• Brazil made 4.2 billion gal in ‘05.

• China & Europe made 1 billion gal in ‘05

• Produces a fuel compatible with existing infrastructure

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Mill

ion

Ga

llon

s

6.5 Billion Gallons, or 5% of Gasoline

12 Billion Gallon, land limit. ~10%

Energy Return is ~4 out : 3 in.Solar land efficiency of ethanol is very low at < 0.1%.Competes for water and land use.

HREG30

Hydro Energy• Cheapest source of

Electricity $0.02/kWh• 200 GW in US by 2005• US developed about

40% of potential; inhibited by environmental concerns.

• Capacity factor 0.5Tidal

Wave

Hoover Dam

HREG31

Hydro Production Cycles in US

150

200

250

300

350

1980 1987 1994 2001 2008

Hy

dro

Ge

ne

rati

on

(T

Wh

/yr)

El Nino cycles

HREG32

Geothermal Energy• Free heat • Environmental

concerns• Non-

sustainable – ground cools.

The Earth’s core is hot from decay of nuclear materials.

HREG33

US Energy Flows 2002 (Quad)

Source: LLNL, EIA-DOE

56.2 Wasted

35.2 Used

HREG34

The Renewable Energy Solution

US Practical Potential for RE energy by 2025 to 2050with existing technology.

Source GWp Cap.Fact. Quads of Work/yrSolar 2000 0.2 10.7Wind 1000 0.47 12.6Biomass 336 0.25 (effic.) 2.3Hydro 300 0.5 4.0Geothermal 100 0.8 2.1

TOTAL 31.7

RE can cover 90% of the 35 Quads of Work used today.

Note: 1 Quad of Fossil Fuel is ~0.3 to 0.1 Quad of useful work. 1 Quad of Renewable Electricity is 0.9 Quad of useful work.

HREG35

Other Energy “Solutions”

• Unconventional Oil– Tar sands– Shale Oil

• Stranded Natural Gas

• Coal

• Nuclear

The Future Value of Such Investments is NEGATIVE!

Polluted water Polluted airHabitat destructionClimate changeLimited Resources Compete for waterEasy terrorist targetsMonopolized marketsWaste of capitalExpensive energy

HREG36

Pathway to Sustainable Energy

• Phase I Achieved! 1975-2005– Economical Renewable Energy Solutions Realized

– Incubation of the RE industry.

• Phase II Achievable by 2025-2050– Up to 25% of electric load can be supported by

renewables without energy storage.

– Shift transportation from oil to electric.

– Technology improvements lower RE cost.

• Phase III Achievable by 2050-2100– Incorporate energy storage to achieve 100% R.E.

– Disruptive renewable energy inventions bring costs lower

HREG37

Action Items – For NOW• Practice Energy Conservation

• Switch to a “Green” Electric Provider.

• Buy Electric Vehicles and Biofuels

• Make investments in Solar and Wind projects/ companies.

• Vote for politicians with platforms promoting “Sustainability”

• Inform the public about the wind and solar energy solution.