Executive Health and Safety
HSE futures scenario building The future of health and safety in 2017
Prepared by Infinite Futuresfor the Health and Safety Executive 2007
RR600 Research Report
Executive Health and Safety
HSE futures scenario building The future of health and safety in 2017
Dr Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures c/o JB Lewis Wolfson College Linton Road Oxford OX2 6UD
This report describes the processes, output, and participant evaluations of a scenario-building project completed for the Horizon Scanning function of the Health and Safety Executive. The scenario process incorporated critical issues of change derived from 28 interviews of HSE policy-makers and outside experts. Participants in a two-day scenario-building workshop chose drivers of change from among these issues, and created a framework defining four different possible futures for health and safety in the UK in 2017. The scenario process also incorporated the emerging changes identified by horizon scanning as ‘hot topics’ for health and safety. Results from the workshop were written up in two formats:
n ‘research scenarios’ that include supporting evidence such as reference to other government agency foresight research and scenarios; and
n ‘workshop scenarios’ that present the key ideas in a vivid but compressed format to generate group dialogue.
As a test of their efficacy in generating policy discussion and ideas, the scenarios were deployed twice:
n at the HSE Horizon Scanning Conference in November 2006 to spark wide-ranging discussion of possible challenges facing the HSE; and
n in a subsequent wind-tunnelling workshop to demonstrate how scenarios can be used to consider specific policies in the face of potential change.
This report and the work it describes were funded by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE policy.
HSE Books
© Crown copyright 2007
First published 2007
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.
Applications for reproduction should be made in writing to:Licensing Division, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office,St Clements House, 2-16 Colegate, Norwich NR3 1BQor by e-mail to [email protected]
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was a collaborative effort between Infinite Futures and SAMI Consulting in partnership with the Health and Safety Executive’s Health and Safety Laboratory Horizon Scanning Team. The project team gratefully acknowledges the support and participation of the HSE Strategy Division, and all the participants in the interviews, workshops, and HSE Horizon Scanning Conference.
SAMI Consulting: Adrian Davies Martin Duckworth John Reynolds Gill Ringland
Health and Safety Executive: Tony Bandle Samuel Bradbrook Roger Brentnall Geoff Brown Peter Ellwood Linda Heritage Elizabeth Hoult Nicolla Martin Jonathan Rees Tony Whitehead Zara Whysall
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CONTENTS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vii 1. HSE FUTURES PROJECT DESIGN 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.2PROCESS DESIGN 2
2. ISSUE INTERVIEWS 5 2.1 PROCESS 52.2 OUTPUT 62.3 EVALUATION 11
3. SCENARIO BUILDING 133.1 PROCESS 133.2 OUTPUT 193.3EVALUATION 26
4. SCENARIO INCASTING: HOLISTIC APPROACH 294.1 PROCESS 294.2 OUTPUT 294.3EVALUATION 32
5. WIND TUNNELLING: ANALYTIC APPROACH 335.1 PROCESS 335.2 EVALUATION 38
6. NEXT STEPS 416.1 DISSEMINATION WITHIN HSE 416.2 DISSEMINATION EXTERNALLY 416.3 ONGOING FORESIGHT 41
APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEWEES 43APPENDIX 2: FULL SCENARIOS 45APPENDIX 3: SHORT FORM SCENARIOS 87BIBLIOGRAPHY 101GLOSSARY: FORESIGHT TERMS 103
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Horizon scanning uncovers emerging issues of change. Change renders some habits and hardware obsolete while creating opportunities for new patterns of life and innovations. This dynamic can be productive, but it also destabilises and magnifies uncertainty. Horizon scanning offers a useful radar for identifying areas of approaching uncertainty, but making sense of change requires a different tool. For strategic thinking, that tool is scenario building. This report presents the results of the Health and Safety Executive’s (HSE) pilot project in assessing horizon scanning data via a participative scenario process.
The HSE wished to create plausible scenarios that depicted a range of possibilities for workplace health and safety in Great Britain in 2017 – a ten-year time horizon. These scenarios are not predictions, or even forecasts; they are stories and descriptions that explore possible future outcomes and thus inform strategic conversations. Two primary sources of data fed into the scenario building process: the ‘hot topics’ gathered by the HSE’s Horizon Scanning team, and critical issues of change identified in a series of twenty-eight interviews. The project team also cited evidence drawn from related scanning work by the Office of Science and Innovation’s Horizon Scanning Centre (now in the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills), and issues identified within relevant scenarios from other government agencies and related organisations.
The issue interviews were conducted with HSE staff, other relevant UK government agencies, and outside experts from academia and related private and non-profit organisations. During the interviews, the respondents were asked to think broadly about critical issues of emerging change. Interview questions asked people to consider not only optimistic and pessimistic outcomes for health and safety in the workplace over the next ten years, but also what needed to change to create positive outcomes, and what critical information and critical activities would be required. The in-depth responses resulted in an issues ‘workbook’ containing hundreds of issues.
From among the interview results the HSE project team chose twenty-six critical issues of change to inform the scenario building in this pilot project. The issues chosen fell into seven broad categories: 1) culture and society, e.g. dependency, social exclusion, the changing nature of the family, the blurring of home and work; 2) demographics, e.g. ageing, diversity, increases in the partially able workforce; 3) technology/science, e.g. the change in disruptive technologies – as illustrated by many of the horizon scanning team’s ‘hot topics’; 4) environment, especially climate-change- related shifts in legislation, regulation, and energy provision; 5) economics, e.g. the ‘hour-glass’ economy, changing work structures, decentralisation, and outsourcing; 6) politics, e.g. joined-up government, attitudes to risk and blame, and the changing nature of democracy; and 7) globalisation, e.g. offshoring, capital and competition, migration, and conflict.
These twenty-six issues provided the starting point for building the scenarios. After review and discussion, the twenty-six were prioritised by importance and uncertainty. Several issues were clustered, and two critical uncertainties emerged as primary drivers describing possible futures for health and safety: 1) are public attitudes towards risk those of personal responsibility, or of the ‘blame culture’? and 2) will the UK increase its competitiveness in the global economy?
These two uncertainties were used to construct a scenario cross, around which four scenarios were built.
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The scenarios were presented at HSE’s first Horizon Scanning conference in London in November 2006, where they were used in a scenario incasting exercise.
In December 2006 the scenarios were used in an internal HSE workshop in a wind-tunnelling exercise, the aim of which was to demonstrate potential uses of scenarios.
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1. HSE FUTURES PROJECT DESIGN
1.1 INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 Project Background
Britain’s Health and Safety Commission (HSC) and the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) are tasked with protecting people's health and safety by ensuring that risks in the changing workplace are properly controlled. In order to assess risks emerging from change and innovation, the Health and Safety Executive established a Horizon Scanning system, overseen by the Horizon Scanning Intelligence Group (HSIG). The Horizon Scanning team, located in the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL), draws on the expertise of specialists within the HSE staff, particularly in the Corporate Topic Groups. The ‘informed customer’ for this scanning activity at the time of this project was the HSE Strategy Division.
Having initiated a robust, interdisciplinary scanning process, the next step in strategic foresight is linking scan data – emerging issues of change – with their potential policy implications. Scenario thinking allows people to explore possible future environments via stories that vividly express the potential impacts of emerging change. These stories create a shared language within the organisational culture that facilitates common understanding of strategic possibilities, opportunities, and threats. Thus the HSIG called for a scenario building project as the logical next step following scanning in building HSE foresight capacity.
The project as designed included three required processes and outputs: 1. Scenarios for 2017, clearly generated from horizon scanning data, and relevant to
strategic planning within the Health and Safety Executive. This process includes: a. Review of scanning data; b. Interviews to map stakeholder assumptions and perspectives on change; c. Scenario building, consisting of a participatory workshop and scenario write-up
and illustration; d. Horizon Scanning Conference participation; e. Wind-tunnelling HSE policy issues using scenarios; and f. Ongoing engagement with the horizon scanning data and scenarios.
2. Involvement of a wide variety of HSE staff and, where possible, HSE stakeholders in the scenario building and foresight activities.
3. Process knowledge management and coaching to increase HSE Horizon Scanning staff scenario building and foresight capacity.
The following pages describe the processes, the outputs, and the participant evaluations of this scenario building effort.
1.2 Scenario Building, Horizon Scanning, and Foresight
Scenario building – also called scenario planning or scenario thinking – is a technique widely used in both corporate and policy settings to enhance management of uncertainty. People have attempted to manage the uncertainty in their lives since the dawn of time; the I Ching and the Oracle at Delphi are both technologies designed to reduce uncertainty, no matter our opinion of their effectiveness. Bacon and Newton opened the door to more robust predictive tools in applying mathematics to closed, linear systems. Physics’ ability to predict outcomes in known physical systems seemed to promise an end to uncertainty – until Heisenberg pointed out that whatever we observe we change, often in unpredictable ways.
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The situation is even more difficult when we are attempting to predict living behaviour; ballistic trajectories and orbits are simple systems compared to the complications of life. The rise of systems science in the twentieth century gave us the paradigms of chaos and complexity. The first assures us that not all chaotic behaviour is random; close inspection of even turbulent systems reveals patterns of outcomes. Furthermore, living systems have the gift of adapting to turbulence. Out of our complex ability to adapt to changing circumstance, we create innovative ways of producing, consuming, organising, communicating and living with each other.
With these shifts in prevailing scientific paradigm from reductionism to systems thinking and from predicting single outcomes to mapping outcome patterns, the business of managing uncertainty changed as well. Foresight and futures research are no longer about predicting, but rather about forecasting, extrapolating, exploring, and managing uncertainty through dialogue and action. Peter Drucker famously said that the best way to predict the future is to create it. Scenario thinking assists that strategy by sparking discussion and dialogue about potential futures, exploring bands of possibility that may then be monitored for emerging probability – and evaluated for preferability. Corporations such as Royal Dutch Shell, Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, Swiss Re, and Unilever have all used scenario planning, as have government agencies including the Department of Trade and Industry, the National Health Service, the Corporation of London, the Scottish Executive, and the European Union.
Consider scenario thinking to be a robust form of contingency planning. All of us engage implicitly in scenario thinking every day. Take home insurance as an example – it is a strategy to manage the uncertainties of potential house damage. Fire, flood, theft, and vandalism are all possible futures for our homes. We hope they are not very probable futures. But explicitly acknowledging their possibility expands our strategic options. We can buy insurance to repair possible damage. We can respond even more proactively; we can install fire alarms. Thinking even further ahead, we can avoid buying a home in a flood plain. We can install security systems or join a neighbourhood watch scheme. But we must first have imagined the future possibilities before we can imagine the strategies to forestall them.
Scenarios are not limited to threat assessment. They also help us spot opportunities. Emerging technologies in green energy supply, sustainable construction, ubiquitous computing, and home communications and media systems offer today’s homeowner dazzling visions of future ‘eco-friendly smart homes’. But we must first be aware of those oncoming changes in order to build them into a scenario of home renovation – a scenario that increases the future resale value of our home considerably.
This illustrates integrated foresight. Horizon scanning enhances our awareness of emerging change. From the changes scanning identifies, we create stories of alternative possible futures, or scenarios. The scenarios in turn help us spot emerging opportunities as well as threats. We then lever those opportunities into strategies to create the futures we prefer.
1.2 PROCESS DESIGN
1.2.1 Design Overview
The research project began with a design meeting on 15 May 2006. The project immediately faced a challenge of compression. The ideal scenario process begins with issue interviews, followed by a series of issues workshops that let participants whittle the issues identified in the interviews down to the most critical potential drivers of change. This short-list of change drivers then feeds into a two-day workshop. During the workshop participants refine the drivers, choosing two to create a four-cell matrix defining boundary spaces of strategic
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uncertainty. Further research and additional workshops to add detail to the scenarios often follow the initial scenario definition workshop.
The project schedule required presenting the draft scenarios to the HSIG in October in order to plan their debut at the HSE Horizon Scanning Conference in November. The realistic limitations on assembling workshop participants in August confined the issues interviews to June, with time for only a single scenario-building workshop in late July, leaving August and September to write the scenario narratives. Thus the July workshop needed to serve two purposes: enable participants to engage with the critical issues for the first time, and also to build the basic framework for the scenarios. Compressing the process risked lack of clarity in the drivers, but the team considered the trade-off worthwhile to hit the October deadline.
HSE Scenarios: Project Inputs
Scenario Building 20-21 July 2006
Key Issues from Interviews June 2006
Ongoing HSE Scanning January 2005 - present
Hot topics, Emerging change
Participant Expertise July 2006
Scenario Drafts August - November 2006
Confirming scan data
Input from Related Scenarios August 2006 - present
Scenario Workshops November - December 2006
Participant Expertise November - December 2006
Figure 1 HSE Futures project timeline and data
As depicted in Figure 1, the project was designed to maximize the flow of evidence into the scenarios from multiple sources. HSE’s horizon scanning data as of May 2006 kick-started the process; the interview issues defined the scenarios; and workshop participants added their expertise and insights. The scenario drafts drew on both ongoing scanning and related scenarios by other organisations as additional evidence. The paragraphs below introduce the four principle phases of the project. The chapters that follow explain each in detail.
1.2.2 Issue Interviews
The project design called for approximately twenty ‘issue interviews’ with HSE policy-makers, topical experts, and leaders in related agencies and organisations. The interviews were designed to elicit respondents’ insights regarding emerging change, critical issues, positive and negative outcomes, and actions to create positive change. The team opted to use the ‘Seven Questions’ interview protocol (see Section 2.1.2), with which SAMI Consulting has extensive experience. Each interview was conducted with both an interviewer and a scribe, to ensure complete transcripts. To achieve the goal of building HSE staff capacity in foresight, HSE staff initially
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took scribe roles while learning the interview technique, and then took the interview roles in later sessions.
1.2.3 Scenario Building
The team designed a two-day scenario-building workshop for twenty-five participants (including the HSE horizon scanning staff). HSE had requested use of the ‘drivers matrix’ scenario approach popularised by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View, clarified by Kees van der Heijden in Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation and The Sixth Sense, and documented by case studies in Gill Ringland’s series of books on scenario use. This process creates scenarios from drivers of change whose outcomes are both highly important and highly uncertain. The issues interviews provided the pool of potential drivers for scenario participants to evaluate. The horizon scanning team’s ‘hot topics’ provided further data to flesh out the scenario framework defined by the drivers matrix. Participants then brainstormed specific details – timelines, future events, winners/losers – and closed the workshop by briefly discussing possible implications for health and safety generally, and the HSE.
Scenarios are based on documented evidence of emerging change. As they are usually expressed as stories about the future, the links to that evidence are not always clear. The project design addressed this by specifying the creation of two sets of scenario narratives: 1) extended scenario descriptions that included citations and references to emerging change – the ‘research scenarios’; and 2) shorter, more vivid descriptions suitable for quick review during participative work – the ‘workshop scenarios.’ The ‘research scenarios’ were drafted based on the scenario brainstorming output, augmented by foresight data. They were then reviewed by the scenario building participants. The more vivid ‘workshop scenarios’ were then extracted from the research scenarios. The entire project team contributed to expressing the shorter ‘workshop scenarios’ to ensure they would provoke discussion relevant to health and safety in the workplace.
1.2.4 Scenario Incasting: Holistic Approach
HSE’s Horizon Scanning Conference, held on 30 November 2006, provided a venue to debut the scenarios with a wide range of stakeholders. The project team seized this opportunity to test the workshop scenarios with a participative exercise. The Horizon Scanning Conference was broadly targeted to health and safety, workplace, worker, business, government, and academic participants. To capture a broad range of issues and questions, the team used an ‘incasting’ exercise. Incasting asks participants to consider the scenario as a whole, and then imagine what particular issues might arise in that future context for their topic – in this case, health and safety in the workplace. The technique provoked lively discussions and enabled an initial mapping of both emerging concerns and opportunities.
1.2.5 Wind Tunnelling: Analytic Approach
The final project activity was a smaller, in-house workshop for 20 HSE staff. This focussed on ‘wind tunnelling’, using scenarios to check the robustness of policy ideas across a variety of future environments. As a pilot exercise, the team chose eight policy options to analyse using the scenarios, as well as several issues that emerged from the plenary discussion at the HS Conference. Cross-scenario comparison of policy feasibility produced evaluations of ‘accepted’, ‘denied’, ‘contingent’, ‘mixed’, and ‘unclassifiable.’ Participants then focused on the ‘accepted’ decisions to brainstorm a ten-year goal for that policy, and relevant preparatory activities.
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2. ISSUE INTERVIEWS
2.1 PROCESS
2.1.1 Choosing Respondents
Issue interviews have two key purposes: 1) gathering insights from within HSE on critical changes it faces; and 2) gathering alternative perspectives and insights from a wider view. Among scenario planners, respondents chosen to contribute a wider view are colloquially referred to as ‘remarkable people’ (RPs). They are remarkable primarily in working outside HSE’s organisational culture and its filters; they see the world differently and ask different questions from HSE staff. While remarkable people also operate within institutional cultures that come with their own cultural filters, they are different filters. When possible, RPs are also chosen for their expertise in fast-moving areas of change relevant to the scenario focus, and for their ability to think ‘out of the box.’ Combining this external perspective with HSE’s internal perspective creates a greater depth of perceptual field – a parallax view of change.
To tap that wider view, the project team identified experts, leaders, and planners from academia and research as well as from relevant government, private, and non-profit organisations. The resulting pool of respondents offered gender, cultural, and professional diversity. In addition to HSE itself, organisations represented included trade unions, government science advisors, futures consultancies, academic research centres, and non-profits focussed on health, workplace safety, and rehabilitation.
2.1.2 Interview Protocol
The team agreed that resources (both time and funding) allowed for twenty interviews involving SAMI staff supported by HSL personnel, and supplementary interviews (subject to time limits) performed by HSL personnel only. All interviews used the ‘Seven Questions’ technique and followed the protocol described below. The key elements were:
• All interviews were unattributable. • Names of respondents were kept only on a master set of scripts, controlled by Infinite
Futures/SAMI and the horizon scanning team. • The respondents controlled the interview and told us what they thought was important
in the agreed context. • Interviewers avoided ‘leading the witness’. While they did ask supplementary
questions to draw out further evidence, every effort was made not to ‘shape the evidence’ for the respondents.
• After initial pleasantries and agreeing that the interview would take approximately 1½ hours, interviews began with agreement on the topic and on the horizon of enquiry.
• “May we agree that our topic is ‘the shape of society and government and its impact on health and safety’?” “May we agree to think towards 2017 and even beyond?”
• Before starting on the ‘Seven Questions,’ interviewers broke the ice by asking, “What do you see as the main issues affecting the shape of society and government, and its impact on health and safety, by 2017?”
• Respondents brought out 3 to 4 issues that were then developed in dialogue to provide a basis for the ‘Seven Questions’. This start gave respondents a chance to order their thoughts before the interview probed more deeply.
• The interview process then continued with the ‘Seven Questions’:
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1. Clairvoyant: If you could spend some time with someone who knew the outcome, a clairvoyant or an oracle, if one existed, what would you want to know? I.e., what are the critical issues?
2. An optimistic outcome: Optimistic but realistic. What would be a good outcome and what would be the signs?
3. A pessimistic outcome: How could the environment change to make things more difficult? What could go wrong?
4. The internal situation: What needs to change if your optimistic outcome is to be realised?
5. Looking back: Looking back 10 years, what successes can we build on and what failures can we learn from?
6. Looking forward: What decisions need to be made in the near term to achieve the desired long-term outcome?
7. The Epitaph: If you had a mandate, without constraints, what more would you need to do?
• After the ‘Epitaph’, interviewers asked respondents if they wished to add any further thoughts. At this point, the scribes were also asked if they wished to raise any questions arising from the interview material.
• The interviews concluded with thanks to the respondent and an invitation to comment on the process. If there were any reference to specific documents in the interviews, the interviewer requested copies, or details of where to find copies.
Each interviewer was assisted by a scribe (note-taker). This assistance enabled the interviewer to maintain eye contact with respondents and to follow their path of thinking closely. Interviewers could also more easily interject supplementary questions to develop ideas and expand the evidence, without breaking the ‘stream of consciousness’ of the respondents. Any significant points emerging from the interviews were highlighted in passing, as were any areas where further evidence or corroboration was needed.
2. OUTPUT
2.1 Creating the ‘Natural Agenda’
As the process unfolded, the total pool of respondents grew to twenty-eight. The resulting interviews generated over 250 pages of transcripts. When interviewers and scribes finished writing up their notes, they exchanged them to reconcile any inconsistencies, and agreed upon a final script. This was expressed in short paragraphs, each containing material on one issue, and allowed gaps for coding the script for entry into the interview issues database. The coding was done using a ‘trial agenda’- themes that emerged from the earliest interviews. This was refined with subsequent interviews into a ‘natural agenda’ that articulated the pattern of major themes encompassed by the interviews. When scripts were agreed, they were forwarded to Adrian Davies, the Interview Coordinator for analysis and coding.
The primary level and first sub-level of the ‘natural agenda’ are listed below. ‘External World’ and ‘Internal World’ refer to the external context of the organisation – HSE – and its internal condition.
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• External World o Economics o Government and politics o Infrastructure o Culture and society o Geography
• Market Interface o Markets o Competitors/partners o Market segments o Marketing
• Internal World o Structure o Culture o Competences o Resources.
The complete ‘natural agenda’ offers much greater granularity, coding responses into a variety of secondary sub-levels in addition to the categories listed here.
Coded scripts were then passed to Ann Hargreaves of SAMI who loaded them into a database, distributing each coded section into the ‘natural agenda’. This clustering put the evidence into a more organised, and hence more usable, format. It also ensured that the ‘workbook’ into which interviews were consolidated contained no connection to specific respondents. The ‘workbook’ is the basic record of the evidence gathered during the interviews. Interview responses are grouped under the headings of the ‘natural agenda’, which serves as an index for easy access. The ‘workbook’ is of great value in preparing for, and running workshops, as well as a valuable source of reference for training and other work. Key quotable issues in the ‘workbook’ material are also useful in illustrating issues of change for reports or other documents. These extracted quotes can also help in the naming of the consequent scenarios. A list of interviewees is given at Appendix 1.
2.2 Identifying Critical Issues
The issues workbook is a rich starting point for policy discussions. So rich that the research team began its analysis by acknowledging that a single scenario building project was insufficient to address all the issues the workbook contained. The team reviewed the interview output, highlighting the obvious gaps, major trends, and possible paradigm shifts. Of the critical issues and questions, the team chose twenty-six for participants to consider in the scenario building workshop.
Gaps
Some issues that the research team expected would surface did not. For example, if China continues economic growth at 10% per year, it will be three times bigger than it is now in ten years, with huge impacts on global economy and global workforce and implications for the UK workplace; no one mentioned this. As the respondent pool did not include educators, issues of the future of education, schools, and e-learning and e-training did not arise. Nor was an emerging shift to a more female-centric world mentioned.
Gaps also occurred in discussing health and safety. None of the respondents spoke of private or voluntary sector involvement in health and safety. Yet this could increase steadily over the next
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ten years with the increase in private sector activity generally. Very little was mentioned vis-à-vis dependency – people staying at home and living off the state – yet if disability is not addressed, the percentage of dependency in the population could grow.
With regard to HSE specifically, the interviews contained little detail about customers or duty holders. Some respondents did mention that HSE was going through a cultural change and re-framing some stakeholders as clients and customers, but those comments were very general. Finally, it was interesting how few international comparisons were made. To what extent do we link and liaise with other countries in regarding health and safety competencies, procedures, and regulations? Is there a worldwide basis for health and safety standards? Is health and safety a source of competitiveness? What opportunities exist for HSE to go out and spread the health and safety message internationally? How much data do we have as to whether an effective health and safety structure actually translates to higher economic competitiveness? These gaps in the issue coverage point are all potential weak signals of emerging change. They point to areas where further horizon scanning research may prove useful.
Trends
The interviews also uncovered what respondents felt were strong trends, or certainties. One obvious trend is the growth of older workers in the workforce. Patterns of work are changing as well. More and more people work on short contracts or are self-employed, and could be inadequately protected with regard to health and safety at work. The increase in disability is increasing emphasis on rehabilitation, but could also result in a shift from rehabilitation to accommodation of workers who are chronically disabled. Another trend is the growing emphasis on health rather than accident prevention. This will change HSE’s role in workplace health, e.g., rather than focusing on stress, focusing on well-being. Each of these trends could contribute detail in the scenario building process, emerging in every scenario, but unfolding differently in each.
Potential Paradigm Shifts
Currently our mental model of a typical workforce assumes healthy workers. In the future, that model may no longer apply. Ageing, stress, and health epidemics such as obesity suggest that much of the workforce will suffer health difficulties at least some of the time. Another current operating assumption is that the workforce is literate and numerate. As communications and media become increasingly pervasive, immersive, and intelligent, literate and numerate workers may represent a decreasing percentage of the future workforce. Finally, the risk exists that price pressures in the economic system may actually drive standards down, and more and more companies will see health and safety as a burden in an ever-more competitive global market.
Critical Issues and Questions
The project team (Infinite Futures/SAMI/HSL staff) reviewed the workbook and highlighted the following major issues as a starting point for this first HSE scenarios exercise. The quotes included are excerpts from the interviews; the ideas expressed may be provocative or controversial, but they were articulated to start discussions: they are not HSE policy. The numbers merely identify each issue, they do not indicate priority.
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Culture/society: 1. Happiness/well-being: more health, less accident prevention: “…in 10 years time, I
will be surprised if the overwhelming majority of medium to large employers don't have much more coherent strategies … providing real support and encouragement for staff to engage in leisure activities which are conducive to well-being.”
2. Dependency and self-reliance: “To what extent are people taking the initiative in managing their health and well-being; how much have they wanted to do this, rather than being compelled to…?”
3. Social exclusion or inclusion: “A good outcome would be a dramatic reduction in the number of people who are socially excluded. … we’ve still got a stubborn number of households in the UK where nobody works.”
4. Changing nature of the living unit, i.e., family: “There is a different dynamic around life, family life and the structure of society, single people, and care for the elderly. There will be very different challenges for people in terms of where their responsibilities lie.”
5. Blurring of work, e.g., in home/working patterns: “Home/tele-working is on the increase together with the more flexible use of time and a blurring of the interface between work and non-work time.”
Demographics: 6. Ageing and its impacts on the working population: “What shape will society and the
future workforce be? There will be lots more older people. What unknown health conditions could affect them in the workplace?”
7. Diversity of ethnicity and gender: “Racial equality is not just about black or Asian anymore, it is becoming increasingly more diverse. There are a growing number of ethnic groups. A large number of migrants now come from non-Commonwealth countries. …What about women? That is one of the key dramatic changes in the labour market. We can expect to see more, but there are still barriers, a glass ceiling, entrenched attitudes.”
8. Increase in partially able workforce (changing model of ‘average’ or ‘uniform’ employee): “…organisations will have to accommodate the needs of the older workforce - manage experienced frailty”. This is not too much of a problem as frailty is an extrapolation of disability. … Society’s understanding of disability is already happening. If you need staff enough and value their experience then you will accommodate them.”
Technology / science: 9. Increase in disruptive technologies: “There may be health scares around new materials
– chemicals, individual nano-materials that might be transported to parts of the body not reached by other substances. Carbon nano-tubes don’t seem to be as much of a problem as some say – they are difficult to disperse in air. We hope to have the methodologies to cope in time. Changes in regulation might be needed to control new materials – this is under debate in the EU and the US at present. We need to spot any new dangers early.”
Environment: 10. Effect of climate change on legislation and regulation, changes in energy provision, and
their effect on work and working environment: “How will we manage global warning and what will be the knock on effects in terms of health and safety? We need to understand the workplace implications of the new technologies that will come in. There might be numerous wind turbines on the work site, which help with sustainable energy, but are workers exposed to a new noise source?”
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Economics: 11. ‘Hour-glass’ economy: rising skills gap and lack of middle-range jobs; increased
number of degree-holders: “Intensive middle jobs will be cut out and the focus will be the top and bottom, the ‘hour-glass’ economy. The factors behind this are young people staying in education, older workers still leaving employment early, employers not tuned into retaining them.”
12. Shift to services and niche manufacturing: “Great Britain will be moving rapidly from a post industrial society towards a 3rd level – the knowledge society, based on IT. … We’re primarily a service economy. We need to move upmarket in manufacturing – technical innovation must be first priority.”
13. Changing work structures with more flexible, part-time, multiple jobs, short-term contracts – ‘precarious work’: “…huge amounts of contracting and sub-contracting and it is difficult to find out who is working for whom. Family companies have pretty much gone. Globalisation and takeovers will have an impact on workers, people have multiple careers, they move on more, they change work more. …There is no longer an expectation of having a ‘job for life’ and the service sector has a different range of risks and hazards, with, e.g., more movement between jobs and people having multiple jobs.”
14. Decentralisation of the economy, including increased entrepreneurship and SMEs: “Our approach to entrepreneurship is more accommodating now. Traditionally it was seen as an inferior activity, but now it is seen as a good activity.”
15. Outsourcing and the effect of the move from public sector to private and voluntary sector, and from large companies to small companies: “There is a continuing move away from large organisations and for more outsourcing of services, together with increasing home-working (i.e. working at home or using home as a base to work from).”
16. The role of an effective health and safety regime on competitiveness: “If the UK is under financial pressure, then there could be pressure to resist more expensive (i.e. safer) ways of doing things. Firms could have to justify health and safety in economic terms, e.g. ‘Good Health is Good Business’. There could be conflict if other countries don’t comply. … An optimistic outcome would be that HSE is seen as an enabler that adds value to GB plc – health and safety is a collateral benefit alongside other risks of businesses.”
17. Trades unions and employers’ organisations: “? The influence of trade unions is unpredictable – where are they going? There is a large proportion of non-union labour in the workforce – small companies, contingent work arrangements.”
Politics: 18. Joined-up government – central, local, regional: “There has been too much ‘working in
silos’ among different departments and agencies, which has led to the perception that government is not ‘joined-up’ at a central level, although there is a feeling that local government operates more effectively in this respect.”
19. Attitudes to risk (blame, litigation), including public and political attitudes to health and safety: “A change in societal attitudes to risk will have taken place such that there is more ownership of Health, Safety (and Well-being) and these issues will have been integrated into standard management practices, alongside and with a similar priority to, e.g., financial control.”
20. Attitudes to privacy, e.g., medical monitoring/invasive monitoring: shifting attitudes to ownership and security of personal and business data, and demands for regulation of privacy.
21. Regulation/deregulation vs. the role of enlightened self-interest (EU, CSR, GHGB): “In terms of regulations – [we could] end up with multiple standards so have to cherry pick as an organisation. Greater emphasis on self-regulation to enable industry to thrive, or a
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mixed approach - recognition for organisations doing well, harsher approach to organisations not doing enough. “Persuade people to do the right thing.”
22. Changing nature of democracy, e.g., increase in lobby and special interest groups facilitated by ICT and declining trust in institutions: “…growing societal disenfranchisement from politics and governance. Leads to single issue politics, which distort priorities and expectations, make it difficult to take broad views.”
Globalisation: 23. Off-shoring and its effects on the nature of work in Britain: “There is a question over
where the balance may be struck over free trade in goods and in people (i.e. will jobs move or will people migrate?)”
24. Capital, competition and effects on UK plc (cost pressures): “Our unique selling points are not cheap labour, not necessarily high skills, but entrepreneurship and education. [vs.] …An inexorable requirement to drive down costs for competitive reasons, resulting in, e.g. sub-contracting, extra layers of communication down the supply chain.”
25. Migration and effects on UK working population: “Currently the majority of immigrants are from Eastern Europe, I don’t know who they will be in the future, I don’t know if this will die down and there will be an influx from elsewhere. It will depend on what happens over the next 10 years; wars could lead to more immigrants coming to the UK. …That is an issue, whether or not we ghettoise the workforce in terms of ethnic origin. But health outcomes are undeniably worse for those people, and it's not actually much to do with occupational risk, in a sense of risk of hazards, but it's more about more complicated factors like psychology, control, sense of empowerment people have over the health outcomes, and so on.”
26. Conflict/war on terrorism, etc. and effects on stability: “Other major instabilities occur such as economic upheaval, war and conflict, without having civilised means of resolution – triggers could be e.g. crises in energy, food and water supplies…[re:] global terror, in terms of the break-up of Eastern Europe and the problems in the Middle East. Insecurity is rife. The government's solution to this global uncertainty seems to be to arm oneself with nuclear capabilities, rather than grapple with it. What is the ultimate direction?”
These twenty-six issues are weighted more towards society, culture, politics, economics, and global change than towards the environment or scientific and technological innovation. The single technological issue, ‘disruptive technologies,’ refers to the cluster of highly transformative innovations emerging in nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, information technologies, and cognitive technologies. The HSE horizon scan’s ‘hot topics’ (see the next chapter) present specific examples of emerging disruptive technologies. The twenty-six issues chosen thus provided an appropriate human balance to the more technological focus of the ‘hot topics’.
3. EVALUATION
The project design did not call for formal evaluation by the respondents of the interview process. In hindsight, that would have been useful. The issue interviews do not merely gather data, although that is their primary purpose. They also serve to engage colleagues and stakeholders with the horizon scanning and scenario building processes within HSE. Explicitly asking respondents whether the interview engaged their interest in HSE’s horizon scanning and scenario efforts would have been informative.
On an informal basis, the interviewers and scribes reported that the responses were generally of high quality, demonstrating the broad thinking that HSE sought, and highlighting interesting
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areas for future research. Respondents mentioned that they found the foresight perspective and questions interesting, and appreciated the formal opportunity to reflect on big issues. They enjoyed the interview and looked forward to project results. The interviews helped to create a positive, interested word-of-mouth buzz about the project.
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3. SCENARIO BUILDING
3.1 PROCESS
3.1.1 Workshop Activities M
ore
Cer
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More U
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The HSE Futures scenario-building workshop was held in Bootle on 21-22 July 2006. Twenty-five participants attended, of whom 22 were HSE staff and three people were from another agency, business, or academia. The workshop had three goals:
1. Acquaint people with the HSE Horizon Scan and the emerging changes it identifies; 2. Review and discuss critical issues facing health and safety in the workplace; 3. Build scenarios to help HSE and stakeholders think through possible outcomes
generated by the convergence of critical issues and emerging changes. The workshop activities included presentations on the critical issues and the ‘hot topics’ of emerging change, plenary discussions, and small group work. The scenario building itself focussed on ten-year futures for health and safety in UK workplaces generally, rather than on futures for the HSE itself. Specific process steps are described below.
Basic Process
The workshop began with an introduction to the project by Geoff Brown, and an introduction to the workshop process and agenda by Gill Ringland of SAMI Consulting. Peter Ellwood of the HSE Horizon Scanning Team then introduced the twenty-six critical issues identified in the issue interviews. The remainder of day one was devoted to four analytic tasks applied to the twenty-six critical issues:
1. Working in syndicates to identify any critical omissions from the list, and then refining it to a maximum of fifteen high priority issues;
2. Meeting in plenary to synthesise output from the syndicates into a master list of fifteen high priority issues for the future of health and safety;
3. Working in syndicates to sort the master list of fifteen issues onto a matrix of importance and uncertainty (see Figure 2); and
More Important
Scenarios are built from drivers. You need to Strong trends and
uncertainties in this plan for these. box, plus emerging Forecasting Units track issues and strong these. trends.
Context shapers. These Occasional review. need to be monitored.
Less Important
Figure 2 Scenario issues matrix
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4. Meeting in plenary to synthesise output from the syndicates into two critical questions to form the scenario cross – the basic framework that defines the outcome spaces of the four futures.
As a result of this process, participants identified a cluster of related issues resulting in the following two questions:
• Are public attitudes towards risk that of personal responsibility or of the ‘blame culture’? This cluster also included attitudes towards adoption of technology, ability to absorb impacts from conflicts and resilience in the face of economic, social, or other shocks.
• Will the UK increase its competitiveness in the global economy? This cluster also linked to harmonisation of regulations, numbers of the differently abled in employment, incorporation of migrants, vitality of the enterprise culture, expectations of well-being, and social cohesion.
Opposite possible outcomes of these two questions created the four arms of the scenario cross (see Figure 3).
Personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of technology, Management of risk, ability to absorb impacts of conflict/war, and resilience in the face of economic/social/other shocks
The Digital Rose Garden A Virtue of Necessity
Boom and Blame Tough Choices
iti itiDecreased UK compet veness
Increased UK compet veness
Blame culture, resistance to new technology, rejection of risk Shattered by impacts of conflict/war, and fragility in the face of economic/social/other shocks
Figure 3 Scenario cross and scenario titles
Owing to lack of space, Figure 3 does not specifically list the other issues clustered with ‘UK competitiveness’, but participants did consider those issues during their discussions.
Day two began with a review of the previous day’s work followed by a brief exercise with the group as a whole to name the four scenarios. The working titles proposed were ‘The Rose Garden’ (now ‘The Digital Rose Garden’), ‘Boom and Blame,’ ‘The Road to Nowhere’ (now ‘Tough Choices’), and ‘Strength in Weakness’ (now ‘A Virtue of Necessity’). The working titles helped to focus the scenario elaboration work by highlighting a core characteristic of each scenario.
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Peter Ellwood then presented the sixteen ‘hot topics’ resulting from HSE’s horizon scanning research to date. Those topics are explained in greater detail in the section below. As emerging issues of potentially disruptive change, they helped create truly dialogue-provoking scenarios. Participants were encouraged to add them into their assigned scenario following the rule of logical consistency – imagining how the particular hot topic might contribute to, amplify, or otherwise fit into the future they were describing.
The scenarios were built in syndicates. Each syndicate was prompted for details about their future by a series of questions:
• How is 2017 different from 2006? - In the UK, in politics, the economy, society, technology, or the environment? - Globally, in politics, the economy, society, technology, or the environment?
• What events, innovations, value shifts, etc. would need to occur for this scenario to happen? Create a timeline: 2007-2009-2011-2013-2015-2017.
• Pick at least two of the hot topics and describe how they have influenced conditions in 2017 in this scenario.
• What would the crisis wild card be – the Piper Alpha/BSE/Kings Cross – in thisscenario?
• Who are the winners and losers in this scenario? Personalise it, e.g. a female office worker; self-employed builder; seasonal migrant worker; differently abled clerk…
These questions elicited a vivid array of details about life in the four alternative futures. Each syndicate was then asked to prepare a ten-minute presentation describing their scenario – a news report from their future. The workshop closed with the presentations from each syndicate, after which participants discussed what each scenario implied for health and safety generally, and the HSE in particular.
HSE ‘Hot Topics’
Presenting and using HSE Horizon Scanning data was a key goal of the workshop. The Horizon Scan contributed sixteen ‘hot topics’ of emerging change to the scenario building exercise. All sixteen could potentially create challenging political, economic, environmental, and social impacts. That is, the issue is not so much if they will happen, as how they will happen. The scenarios create spaces to explore how these changes will emerge into daily life given different social, economic, and political conditions. Workshop participants had the freedom to build the topics into scenarios as they saw fit.
The sixteen ‘hot topics’ include: • Demographics and Ageing: Changes, especially as they affect workplace issues, in
population, ageing, gender, workforce by sector and occupation, ethnicity and migration, working patterns, housing and living patterns and the shape of industry.
• Nanotechnology: The design and manufacture of materials on the ‘nano’ scale (i.e., at sizes down to 1 billionth of a metre) have massive potential for application: sunscreens, anti-microbial coatings, self-cleaning windows and additives to improve the efficiency of diesel engines are all examples of products already on the market that incorporate nanotechnology.
• Recycling: The value shift towards sustainability encourages manufacturers and consumers to adopt a ‘cradle to grave’ attitude to waste minimisation. This could lead to a significant expansion in recycling activities, e.g. increased recycling of car components, plastics and electronic goods.
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• Human Performance Enhancement (HPE): Augmenting the capabilities of the human body using technologies including:
− Bionics: exoskeletons, arms, hands, eyes, some controlled by thought; − Body or brain implants: laboratory-grown or artificial hearts, lungs, etc.; − Brain implanted chips to control computers and robotic arms; − Cognitive enhancing drugs such as modafinil (to improve concentration,
memory, wakefulness and decision making); and − Genomics: gene therapy, stem cells, xenotransplantation, ageing studies.
These innovations augur an emerging era of technologically-mediated increases in human potential.
• Pervasive Computing: The concept of integrating computers into the environment such that people can interact with them more seamlessly. Also known as ‘ubiquitous computing’ or ‘ambient intelligence.’ Current examples include the use of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) tags and GPS systems in vehicles.
• Hydrogen Economy: A ‘fuel chain’ that transforms a primary energy source to generate hydrogen for fuel cells. These in turn provide power for a range of stationary or vehicle applications.
• Cyber Security: Attacks on IT systems by hackers, disgruntled employees and criminals are commonplace but are to date mostly being carried out for monetary gain. Increasingly similar threats exist to the safety of industrial processes from breaches in the security of safety-critical control systems.
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Sequestration: The current UK target calls for reducing CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050. One option is to capture the gas at the point of generation (mainly during power generation from fossil fuels and during the manufacture of steel and cement) and then to store the gas underground.
• Obesity: the ‘obesity epidemic’ in the UK and other developed economies brought on by the increasing consumption of high calorie foods and reduced levels of exercise.
• Genetic Testing: Currently Britain has no law to prevent employers using genetic test results to decide who gets a job or pension. Genetic tests for susceptibility to occupational illness are being developed and a few have been used in UK and US workplaces, even though the tests are not yet thought to be accurate or reliable enough to predict whether an individual is at risk.
• New and Emerging Pests and Diseases: The emergence of new ‘pests’ in the form of flora and fauna or diseases (human or animal), which were previously rare or unknown in the UK. These could appear as a result of various external factors including climate change and the increasing migration and transport of people, livestock and food products.
• Biotechnology: The large-scale exploitation of microorganisms to produce pharmaceuticals, feedstuffs or other valuable metabolites, including:
− Gene Therapy: the potential to treat inherited disorders, cancer and some genetic diseases by explicit manipulation of living genomes;
− RNAi: Gene silencing technology offering the potential to treat genetic disease; − Biopharming: the use of genetically transformed crop plants and livestock
animals to produce valuable compounds, especially pharmaceuticals; − Synthetic Biology: the re-writing of the genetic code of DNA to create or
recreate microorganisms from scratch; and − Stem Cells: re-engineering stem cells to create therapies to treat disease.
• Terahertz Technology: This exploits the region of the electromagnetic spectrum between the Infrared and Microwave frequency ranges using relatively cheap, coherent (laser) sources and detectors. As it can non-harmfully penetrate a wide range of materials, it creates commercial opportunities particularly in medical imaging and security.
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• Robots and Artificial Intelligence (AI): The wider application of complex software and robotic systems to act as assistants to workers and in closer proximity to workers.
• Flexible Working and Employment Patterns: Increased adoption of flexible work and employment patterns (i.e. time flexibility, telework, and contractual flexibility).
• Do Keyboards Have a Future? Increasing use of voice-recognition software, virtual (laser projected) keyboards, and non-keyboard input devices like touch screens and gestural technologies.
These ‘hot topics’ are defined in greater detail in ‘Current Issues: health and safety in the changing workplace’, HSE’s horizon scanning briefing paper.
HSE’s horizon scanning data, and the ‘Current Issues’ summary, are linked to and corroborated by scanning databases in other UK government agencies, chief among them the Delta Scan of the Office of Science and Innovation’s Horizon Scanning Centre (OSI/HSC). Figure 4 maps the connections between the eight science and technology clusters derived from OSI/HSC’s Sigma and Delta Scans. The Sigma Scan is a quality-assured synthesis of existing national and international scanning work. The Delta Scan is a synthesis of key science and technology issues collected from over 200 scientists in the UK and USA. These key emerging science and technology clusters have the potential, over the period from 2015-2020, to transform the delivery of public services; challenge society; and/or affect wealth creation. Both Sigma and Delta Scan data, including the eight key clusters, have been integrated into HSE scanning data and the scenarios.
Figure 4 OSI/HSC’s 8 S&T themes and HSE’s “Current Issues”
3.1.2 Drafting the Research Scenarios
Drafting the research scenarios was a multi-layered process, beginning with synthesising and elaborating the ideas and details generated by each syndicate to create a coherent narrative. As they were drafted, citations of confirming data were added, as were links to relevant scenarios generated by other organisations. Depth and structure were added to the emerging story by drawing upon the perspectives of systems thinking, ethnography, and even integral philosophy. What feedback loops were driving the creation of each scenario? How do the resulting changes affect not only actions and infrastructures, but also deep structures like worldview, values, and identity?
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This deep dive into the scenario ideas generated by workshop participants rendered a more accurate view of each scenario’s core characteristic, resulting in adjustments to three of the names. ‘The Rose Garden,’ while undoubtedly rosy, is mostly so for the generation of digital natives, and thus became ‘The Digital Rose Garden.’ ‘Strength in Weakness’ describes people generating economic revival by creative response to challenges, and thus became ‘A Virtue of Necessity.’ Finally, the dark ‘Road to Nowhere’ focuses on the difficult trade-offs necessary in situations of straitened resources, and thus became ‘Tough Choices.’
The research scenarios for this project each begin with a brief overview of conditions in 2017 and the historical changes that created them. They then explore how life is different in the future in greater detail:1
• What concepts, ideas and paradigms define the world around us? • How do we relate to each other – what are the social structures and relationships that
link people and organisations? • How do we connect with each other – what technologies connect people, places and
things? • What are the processes and technologies through which we create goods and services? • How do we consume goods and services – how do we acquire and use them?
Each scenario ends by focussing on the changing workplace, and changed health and safety issues. The complete research scenarios are available as Appendix 2 of this report.
3.1.3 Drafting the Workshop Scenarios
With the rich details of the research scenarios in hand, compiling more vivid versions for use in participatory workshops began. These more vivid scenarios are less detailed by design; they must be quick to read in workshop settings, and leave holes for the imagination to fill. The project team all contributed to this effort, generating short ‘news editorials’, headlines, example companies, characters’ quotes, and core values. In addition, the following details were provided in brief for each scenario, to allow comparison across the four:
• Attitudes to personal responsibility; • Social structure; • Demographic patterns; • Use of ICT and pervasive computing; • Economic structures; • Consumption patterns; • Attitudes towards the environment; • Workplace characteristics; and • Health and safety context.
These workshop scenarios are brief, illustrated, and easy to read within five or ten minutes. They are presented in Appendix 3.
1 This organisational scheme is adapted from Global Foresight Associates’ “EthnoFutures Scanning Framework,” devised by Michele Bowman and Kaipo Lum. This framework proposes organising scan data based on its point of impact on society, rather than on the origin point of the change. Michelle Bowman and Wendy Schultz, “Best Practices in Environmental Scanning: The World Beyond Steep,” presentation at the World Future Society, Chicago, 30 July 2005.
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3.2 OUTPUT
3.2.1 Overview
Remember, scenarios are not predictions of the future. They are vivid stories about possible futures. They help us explore the boundaries of uncertainty defined by specified drivers of change. They are used by organisations to develop and implement plans for the future. Scenarios written for interactive exercises are typically brief, depicted in personal rather than institutional anecdotes, and salted with humour (laughter aids impact and memory). But these are best based on research scenarios - longer narratives, depicted in broader terms. The summaries offered below are extracts from the longer research scenarios.
3.2.2 The Digital Rose Garden
Overview
Britain has harnessed the creativity of its diverse society to service both the economy and the environment. This renewed, cohesive spirit of innovation looks likely to create the ‘Roaring Twenties’ of the 21st century. A bumper crop of new businesses has energised the national economy. Graduates in the sciences and mathematics are partnering with the best in British design, generating economic value in biosciences, materials sciences, and nanotechnology, and attracting a brain gain internationally. Expert youth are working with experienced seniors on the real millennium challenges: global climate change, poverty, and sustainability.
British employees are staying at home, and so are Britain’s businesses. Offshoring is declining; as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and emerging economies increase their wealth and the salaries paid their workers, the comparative advantage of overseas labour has declined. Increasing international standardisation of regulations has also raised overseas operating costs, particularly in comparison to the leaner, rationalised regulatory framework in the UK.
Individuals are channelling their inner Edmund Hillary – or, more appropriately, their inner Kevin Warwick (pioneer in the human-machine interface; he embedded a microchip in his arm). It’s the age of cool explorers and new adventures; risks are acknowledged, weighed, and managed in cooperative public-private partnerships that enable a continuous stream of responsible innovation. This heightened comfort with managing risks heightens comfort with transformative technologies on an individual level as well; history may come to know this new ‘Roaring Twenties’ as the ‘Transhumanist Twenties’. Human performance enhancements, both pharmacological and bionic, are popular lifestyle design choices, especially among extreme sports enthusiasts. Britain’s next decade will transform its economy and environment for the better, but how will history judge the increasing transformation of humans themselves?
Health and Safety in the changing workplace
Workers no longer face a simple blurring between the workplace and the home. Wrestling with the challenges that blurring presents to work/life balance is relatively straightforward. Instead, the immersive computing and media environment through which everyone now moves has created a blurring between the workplace and everywhere – and everything – else. Mobile phones are embedded in sunglasses, so videoconferences can find you in Devon. Worse, an age of ‘peer production’ means people ‘work’ even as consumers.
The emphasis on local manufacturing and short-haul delivery drove most companies to decentralise their offices. Smart software puts resources where they are needed with minimal miles travelled. The same software helps employees cooperate to reduce resource consumption in both work and leisure. While offices are smaller and local, they are consistent in their design,
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amenities, and operations, facilitating consistent regulatory compliance across a company’s establishments.
People think differently about risk and safety now, in what analysts call “a return to a more rational view.” It is a world away from the legal micromanagement of personal risk that so characterised concerns about the ‘compensation culture’ a dozen years before. More funds and time are now invested in informing the public about the potential risks, costs, and benefits of new technologies, products and services. Over the decade from 2007-2017, the efforts of public agencies and others to manage risk and enable informed use of common sense have paid off.
The last ten years have seen a proliferation of health and safety consultants with expertise in different sectors – hardly surprising, given what seems like the almost weekly emergence of new areas of innovative production. It’s a scientific and technological conveyor belt and the challenge now is for public agencies, consultants and others to agree what the risks actually are, and how they should be managed and communicated consistently. To compound the problem, the variety of software and hardware systems now marketed to assist both businesses and private individuals in managing health and safety is skyrocketing. If historical business patterns hold, however, the 20s should see a consolidation of smaller H&S hardware and software firms and a rationalization of that market.
Winners and Losers
It’s a booming economy and winners abound. New lifestyle products and services have revolutionized leisure further from even the heady days of 2007 and Nintendo’s Wii. Huge steps forward in health biosciences hardware and software have allowed improvements in many conditions and have made healthy, active ageing the norm.
Employment is at an all-time high, especially employment of previously marginalised workers like the elderly and the differently abled. More economic centres exist, and they are more widely distributed throughout the country. The environment itself is both benefiting from increased accountability, and returning those benefits; with the increase in ‘low-carbon-cost at-home holidays’, Preston by the Sea and the ‘Devon Riviera’ exemplify the revitalisation of the British seaside resort – even given the risk of climate-change-intensified storms and storm surge.
The losers are insurance companies who see customers opting for lower levels of coverage. The increased understanding of relative risk makes people less litigious. With more food grown at home and a greater emphasis on ‘buying British’ to conserve transport fuel use and its carbon cost, import/export companies are also under pressure. The less well educated are marginalised, as they are less able to navigate the landscape of informed choice. Immigrants suffer a similar problem for a different reason; different cultural filters may make it difficult for them to assess risks adequately in the British environment. Finally, people who are unnerved by the emerging future of transhumanism and want to reject it may well find themselves marginalised.
3.2.3 Boom and Blame
Overview
The global economy of 2017 is a dog-eat-dog arena. Privatisation is up, and the market is free. Britain has a history of economic success and is relatively strong today, but how stable is that strength? People are worried about the future. What compounds the worry is the cost to the environment of maintaining economic vitality. Remember sustainability? It has taken a back seat to aggressive growth strategies, among them the loosening of environmental and health
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regulations. Companies are offshoring production to reduce costs. They are also offshoring waste to minimise disposal and remediation expenses. While British investors are moving aggressively into emerging markets, foreign investors are snatching up vulnerable UK companies.
Society prizes competition and assertiveness. Economic and social pressures to enhance business productivity mean that business owners have a vested interest in the wellness of employees. Companies now genetically profile prospective employees as a matter of course, and provide subcutaneous RFID wellness/environment sensors to assist employees in maintaining peak health and peak productivity. The economic value of proving ‘clean genes’ has produced a new extended family as a knock-on effect; genealogy has replaced sudoku, and relatives who find each other using online genealogy software often meet to discuss medical histories and stay to socialise.
The public mood is increasingly laissez-faire. Government is expected to be less intrusive in the business sector and less intrusive in private lives. The corollary is erosion of social safety nets. Influential commentators are focusing on what they call an increasingly polarized society, with privileged enclaves and ghettoised communities. But the tide of communitarianism seems to be rising; more voters are voicing dissatisfaction with rising crime and the growing indigent population.
Health and Safety in the changing workplace
Manufacturing has mostly been outsourced and offshored. The workplace today is the office more than the factory floor. Where businesses have consolidated, the work environments are standardised for the sake of efficiency of supply and training. But shifts are longer; pressure to produce keeps workers at their desks well into the evening. Life has lost out to work in the battle for work/life balance.
At first corporate genetic profiling was used to identify workers particularly sensitive to chemicals and substances used in innovative materials production. The increasing sophistication of genomic analysis allowed companies to evaluate candidates’ fit to corporate culture in terms of metabolism, personality, and vulnerability to stress. These screening programs are the first step in corporate HR support for the use of human performance enhancement (HPE) drugs and technologies by employees. Company cafes offer an array of sanctioned HPE drugs, and corporate training includes instruction in their use. Monitoring and screening employees’ behaviour and health at work and at home permits the HR team to monitor staff productivity. It’s all about additional competitive edge. (“Maintaining productivity is a 24/7/365 endeavour!”)
But issues of trust, privacy, and liability are still rife, and the tightest corporate cyber-security can be found firewalling the HR health sensor nets. Initially employees accepted intrusive ‘chipping’ because in a buyers’ market for labour they had little choice. Of course, there were also economic incentives in the form of reduced insurance premiums and a higher salary scale. Most people now acknowledge the physical benefits.
In FTSE 100 companies, employers view worker health and fitness as a strategic resource ensuring high productivity. Successful employees guard their health as a resource with concrete salary implications. These perspectives render genetic profiling and subcutaneous RFID health sensors non-controversial. In free market conditions, the insurance industry drives health and safety, spurred on by litigation. Consumer health issues and public safety are as big a priority as workplace safety.
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Stress is the top health issue among the employed as hazards from the more traditional industries have reduced. Worsening air quality coupled with stress-depressed immune systems has caused a resurgence in respiratory infections.
Obesity is on the decline among the haves, more because it is perceived as unproductive and uncompetitive than specifically for health reasons. The chronically under- and unemployed – whose ranks currently equal 20% of the potential workforce – remain the hotspot of the lingering obesity epidemic.
Winners and Losers
In the competitive, privatised landscape of 2017, skilled workers have an advantage. Likewise, physical disability is overlooked in the balance with education, expertise, and essential good health, so it is a win for the differently abled. Healthcare professionals also win, as their salaries increase, although competition for work is stiffer – but so it is for everyone.
Guaranteeing consistent productivity is key. Thus long-term ill health – physical or mental – is a significant disadvantage in the employment market. Inadequately prepared school leavers cannot compete in this market.
3.2.4 Tough Choices
Overview
The present is a landscape littered with tough choices; the future seems nasty and brutish. Any comparative advantage that Europe once enjoyed on the global economic stage has evaporated. The declining economy drove the best and brightest of the young overseas searching for well-paid careers. Innovation has slowed as a result. Unemployment is high while at the same time low-end jobs go begging. More and more often those jobs are filled by migrant workers or illegal aliens.
Social divides and alienation have amplified from the millennium on. Rising resentments generated more litigation and ambulance chasing as people strive to blame someone else for their grievances. Disaffected youth join gangs that split community turf. News from urban neighbourhoods looks like coverage of civil war – local riots are common, and local policing is tougher in response.
Sweeping deregulation across Europe was hoped to jump-start the economy. The only result so far is an increase in air, soil, and water pollution. The grey and black economies have certainly been growing – but that trend preceded deregulation, as organised crime disregards regulations in any case.
While still free at the point of delivery, the NHS is under tremendous pressure. Private health insurance is expensive but those that can afford it, pay. Analysts worry that the UK is on the brink of complete societal breakdown; new data suggests increased malnutrition and declining life expectancy.
Health and Safety in the changing workplace
The health divide grows wider; there’s not enough work and for those at work, precious little well-being. The priority for people is to have at least one job, particularly a job that may offer the holy grail of perks such as a pension and private health insurance. Accusations of the
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‘nanny state’ have long since withered on the vine of history – no one expects the state to nanny anybody anymore. It’s a competitive and cut-throat society. Each looks out for number one.
Businesses are struggling and cutting costs. The average workplace, whether a manufacturing floor or a business office, is showing signs of wear and tear with little hope for renovation or updating in the near future. Old machinery, worn flooring, jury-rigged wiring and over-taxed ventilation and exhaust systems combine to create health hazards and the potential for accidents. Employers are juggling resource costs, staffing costs, and the need for capital improvement, and health and safety considerations often lose out in the trade-off.
In a stripped down regulatory structure, safety at work rather than health is the priority for employees. People know that health is important – the campaigns of a decade before hit their targets – but why worry about long term health when an accident at work may strike you first? Already, the media are referring to Britain’s accident epidemic, an epidemic that is amplifying litigation, as injured parties look for means to punish offending employers and obtain financial redress. Too often their litigation goes nowhere – employers can’t or won’t pay and the will isn’t there to make them do so. But some high profile cases against organisations with deep pockets succeed and this encourages a ‘have a go’ mentality. So individuals still over-eat, drink too much, and smoke, but are more prepared to lay the fault at the feet of the marketing people, brewers, and cigarette manufacturers.
Stress, pollution, and street violence have reached heights not seen for thirty years. Under-reporting of health and safety failures in the workplace is rife – and the system in any case lacks the resources for anything more than low-level interventions and the investigation of serious incidents. Given the dominance of the black market, huge numbers of workers fall outside those regulatory regimes that remain.
Winners and Losers
The new barons of the black economy are definitely benefiting from the ‘Wild West’ environment of stripped down regulations. The boundaries between the legal and black markets are narrowing. Street peddlers selling cheap knock-offs are seeing higher growth than the high street stores. Those few companies willing to play fast and loose with the remaining laws and regulations can match organized crime in generating wealth. A flexible ethical and moral framework is a competitive advantage in this environment.
Longer-term economic recovery is emerging where CEOs have retrenched, making strategic trade-offs among staff numbers, capital improvement, and workplace standards. Improved workplace health and safety standards are attracting better staff and avoiding lawsuits. With consumers retrenching as well, discount retailers and wholesale clubs are forecasting some improvement in consumer purchasing.
Youth bright enough and with sufficient initiative to scout out opportunities overseas are coping, if not benefiting.
Basic research is suffering, as is higher education generally; resources are scarce and business foundations have much less money than in past. Older people find themselves in dire straits as public programs evaporate and even their pension payments decline. Other populations in need are also suffering, with incapacity benefits sharply curtailed. Recent immigrants, whether legal or illegal, have a particularly hard time.
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3.2.5 A Virtue of Necessity
Overview
Britain now resembles one great seaside town. More and more UK communities – even cities – consist of older people, needing services more than consumer goods. The local economy provides the services, and while goods are imported, consumers now buy for durability and extended uselife. As traditional industries declined young workers started out-migrating and looking elsewhere for employment. With fewer people supporting more elderly people and large corporations relocating to Asia, the economy contracted. Entrepreneurial activities are smaller in scope; more business initiatives are local, resulting in less wealth generation nationally.
The gap between haves and have-nots has widened. Society as a whole has looked for ways to retrench. Increasingly, people are choosing to reject consumerism in favour of a shift towards increased self-sufficiency. Those who remain form, in one sense, more tightly knit communities, which are more focussed on self-reliance than the communities of 2006. While this certainly means a gain for sustainability, it is more the self-reliance of the war garden than the eco-tribe. Nonetheless, the avalanche of data confirming global warming did accelerate the growth of environmental values, as did social and business strategies pioneered by change organisations such as Clinton’s Global Initiatives in 2006.
People now take greater responsibility for their own well-being and for the well-being of their environment. What bodes well for a future revitalisation of UK competitiveness is a national mood of adventure. Britons are responding to the current challenges with resilience and creativity, working together to innovate and create new businesses and renew their communities.
Health and Safety in the changing workplace
Britain has fewer large industries and large corporations that standardise office practices and environments throughout their branches. The proliferation of small businesses, local businesses, and at-home businesses creates widely varying work environments. The line between work and home continues to erode. The increased value placed on achieving work/life balance is countered by labour demands and many people’s need to work two jobs, or one job in conjunction with elder care or self-sufficiency tasks. Work at home allows more seamless integration of elder care, but it also lowers productivity owing to the distraction quotient.
One emerging reason for optimism, however, is the increasing trend for small businesses to share office space and support staff, leveraging dynamically administered resources to function more efficiently and parsimoniously. Implementing ‘green office’ design is also easier when resources are shared. Less waste and lower operating costs allow these office cooperatives to invest more in creating a healthy workplace environment.
With regard to health and safety, fear and uncertainty have driven people to think, “If I don’t do it for myself, no-one else will do it for me.” It’s a brave new world of personal responsibility, driven as much by galloping technological process and the emergence of increasingly complex health and safety issues as from any increase in individual or social enlightenment. Detection and prevention of ill health causal factors is the key. Health agencies are moving into the roles of coaches and advisors. They provide resources that enable people to take responsibility for their own well-being more effectively.
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Immersive monitoring systems and ‘wellness webs’ allow more efficient monitoring of health and stress indicators throughout an individual’s day. Businesses and employees who can afford the system find that it not only aids productivity, but reduces employee health costs. As a result, the bell curve of workplace health and safety has widened and flattened; we see more exemplary practices, but also more reports of businesses attempting to fly under the regulatory radar to save costs.
Many businesses have simply cut and run. Recession-induced pressures on profit margins increased the offshoring of innovation, R&D, and production by those who could afford it. Offshoring was welcomed by some environmental campaign groups, though by no means all, as a means of protecting Britain’s natural environment from experimental or industrial disasters. The sluggish economy did create some bargains for overseas buyers, with some British companies going cheaply. However, their new overseas owners tended to bring their own attitudes and approaches to health and safety issues. In some sectors this mattered little; in others, a lot.
Winners and Losers
The winners in 2017 are the self-sufficient, high-tech, green micro-energy producers and consumers in the wealthier rural communities. Landowners in those communities have benefited from the increased demand for land for the self-sufficient lifestyle. Pensioners who can afford the supportive technology are better off, as are those who belong to support networks or have either successful or devoted children on whom they can rely. Private security companies are succeeding, as are small businesses developing wellness products or services, especially those that are locally unique. Digital media and experience economy entrepreneurs are beginning to re-establish a name for British design. In politics, proportional representation has created a lively, if fragmented arena for special interest groups – and political extremists.
But the losers are too often the young and working age adults, especially those with minimal education whose traditional industrial jobs are disappearing. Pensioners whose children out-migrate and who lack the resources or support networks suffer from the erosion of public assistance. While 2017 contains the potential for new growth, it is still for too many an era of struggle.
3.2.6 Commonalities and Contrasts
The review of the HSE ‘hot topics,’ above, pointed out that the issue is not so much if they will happen, as how they will happen. One use of the four scenarios is comparing how innovations or structural changes might play out in the different future environments they portray. A good example of this is ‘pervasive computing.’ Pervasive telecommunications and media, ubiquitous computing, and RFID/nano ‘smart dust’ sensors are certainties; an immersive media and computing environment will exist in all four scenarios. The critical difference will be why and how those systems are used, and who has access to them:
• In ‘The Digital Rose Garden,’ pervasive computing creates a seamless, immersive digital data/media environment that overlays the real world and that everyone accesses constantly.
• In ‘Boom and Blame,’ a more limited version allows total lifestyle, environment, and performance monitoring by companies via implants tracking working wellness and productivity.
• In ‘Tough Choices,’ pervasive computing is a luxury of the wealthy; government uses RFID implants to track felons, and gangmasters use them as ‘inventory tags’ for migrant workers. Everybody else gets by with cell phones.
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• In ‘A Virtue of Necessity,’ people use pervasive computing to link family and local community, and for environmental and health monitoring and problem detection; it eases home care and enables telemedicine for seniors.
Extrapolating how impact patterns of a specific detail will vary across the four scenarios is also known as ‘incasting.’ Given a set of clearly defined scenarios, this exercise can be used to explore alternative outcomes for almost any issue or innovation. The table below offers two more examples: human performance enhancement (HPE), and sustainability.
Table 1 Comparing Human Performance Enhancement and sustainability outcomes across the four scenarios Scenario HPE Sustainability The Digital Used for extreme sports Rose pursuits and as a lifestyle Garden choice.
‘Green de luxe’: sustainability for design elegance and parsimony of system solutions
Boom and HPE drugs distributed by ‘Success first, sustainability later’: Blame companies as a key only a wealthy, expanding economy
competitive edge enhancing can afford sustainability -- the ‘trickle worker productivity. down’ approach.
Tough Used by organised crime ‘Conserving to cope’: no available Choices elements; distributed to illegal capital to invest in green retrofitting or
workers by gangmasters to entrepreneurial initiatives. extend work hours.
A Virtue of Used to cope with the ‘Shabby green’: sustainability forced Necessity demands of multiple jobs and by economic limitations -- don’t have
senior care responsibilities. much so you don’t use much: reduce, re-use, recycle.
As HSE’s Horizon Scanning continues to identify emerging issues of change, the four scenarios can help explore their possible impacts and outcome patterns.
3.3 EVALUATION
The project aimed to involve HSE staff and stakeholders in joint foresight activities. Creating a positive experience for participants would in turn help foster a foresight culture within HSE. Participant reviews of the scenario building workshop were positive. Over 70% rated the content ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ with respect to the 26 major issues from interviews; the ‘hot topics’; developing the scenarios; and presenting the scenarios and brainstorming health and safety issues. When asked if they felt they understood scenarios better as a result of the workshop, 23% responded with a 5, ‘completely’; 71% with a 4; and 6% with a 3, on a 1-5 scale where 1 equalled ‘not at all’ and 5 equalled ‘completely’. When asked if they thought the session was interesting and worthwhile (using the same 1-5 scale), 50% responded with a 5, ‘completely’; 44% with a 4; and 6% with a 3.
Written comments included the following:
• “…a very valuable exercise which was extremely enjoyable to participate in…” • “…would like to do it all again with my fuller understanding of the process now!” • “I must admit I wondered what this was all about and was a little sceptical at first. I
finished a strong supporter and thought it was worthwhile and well organised.”
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• “I greatly enjoyed the workshop and found it a valuable introduction to the concept of scenarios. I feel the process has considerable potential and will help HSE teams to develop a long-range view and ensure that we are ready to meet future challenges.”
The feedback did point out some perceived weaknesses in the content, as well as strengths of the process, e.g.
• “Hot topics were largely about technological developments - whereas societal and managerial (psychosocial) practices are of equal if not greater importance.”
• “I thought that the contributions captured in debate after each presentation were useful in augmenting each scenario descriptions, therefore making them more realistic.”
The most serious weakness was perceived to be the time constraint. As the team anticipated when designing the project, compressing so many tasks into one scenario workshop, even if two days long, was frustrating to participants. The process was successful in provoking thoughtful dialogue and people wanted more time for in-depth discussion and to clarify both the interrelationships among issues and the issue priorities. Comments that reflect this frustration included:
• “…would have been better if we had had a bit more time for discussion - also hindered by some people having left early…”
• “I felt this was a bit rushed and we came up with scenario axes that some of us felt were not quite right…”
• “…One of the axes appeared to reflect two different issues. Also the axes we ended up with reflected different concepts that made the work on the next day more difficult not to say impossible…”
This demonstrates the need for stand-alone issues workshops to digest the wealth of data generated by the issues interviews. More time for discussion and analysis of the complex issues raised by the interviews would enable the creation of more concise and consistent scenario axes.
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4. SCENARIO INCASTING: HOLISTIC APPROACH
4.1 PROCESS
4.1.1 Context: The HSE Horizon Scanning Conference
HSE’s first horizon scanning conference – Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace – was held at the DTI Conference Centre in London on 30 November 2006. The primary aims of the workshop were to:
• Work with others in identifying and exploring the key new and emerging risks for the health and safety system
• Explore the policy implications, for regulators and others, of these new and emerging risks.
• Support and contribute to the Wider Implications of Science and Technology (WIST) Programme, led by the Office of Science and Innovation.
• Broaden the ‘horizon scanning for health and safety’ community.
About 100 delegates from government, industry and academia met to hear a range of invited speakers and to work with HSE’s newly completed Scenarios for the health and safety system in 2017.
The exercise set for delegates was Scenario Incasting, a holistic approach to working with scenarios in which groups are asked to imagine the specific details of a possible future based on a more general scenario description.
4.1.2. Activity Instructions
After a brief introduction to the scenario building process, delegates were split into six breakout groups, each of which was asked to work with one scenario. Two groups worked with A Virtue of Necessity, two with Boom and Blame, and one each with Tough Choices and The Digital Rose Garden. Each group was assisted by a facilitator and a scribe.
Ground rules
Delegates were given five minutes to read a two-page summary of their scenario. They were then asked to split into twos or threes to discuss the following questions:
What does this scenario imply for health and safety in your organisation or profession?
What does this scenario imply for stakeholders in the health and safety system and what should they be doing to prepare for this future?
After about ten minutes a group discussion was initiated in which the issues raised were discussed and delegates produced a list of key issues to report back to the plenary session.
4.2 OUTPUT
4.2.1 Scenario Discussions
The following points were reported back from the breakout groups.
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A Virtue of Necessity
Groups 1 and 5
• Importance of education; teaching children now about health and safety • Communicating and influencing … • …and identifying the key stakeholders • More local-based regulation; greater role for LA activity; and for local support
networks • Training in safety as well as health • With SMEs, fiscal incentives rather than sanctions – changing behaviour • H&S merges with Environment – one hit, high impact, integrated intervention • Fitness for work – standards for fitness given changes in ageing, generational lifestyle
differences
A Digital Rose Garden
Group 2
• Choice vs coercion (you have no choice in this scenario) – growth in mental health issues
• Polarisation of society – wills/will nots – some will opt out → dual approach from HSE, both guardian/enforcer vs advisor, plus more education re risk management
• Changing relationships – blurring of work and home, which requires HSE to abandon distinction between occupational and public health. Also requires a more holistic focus on well-being, and closer relationship between occupational health and the social services.
Boom and Blame
Groups 3 and 6
• From regulation to litigation – from criminal courts to civil courts • Individual – has more responsibility, but less freedom • ‘Karoshi’ – STRESS – working until you drop • Quality of life ”bloody awful” • Major accidents due to loss of expertise, competitive insularity – risks due to holes in
expertise → major accident potential • Implications for surveillance of workers/workplace – could be used for regulation tool
by HSE • Can HSE regulate the rate of change?
Tough Choices
Group 4
• Fewer resources for health and safety – but it’s declining in priority anyway – the focus shifts to enforcement
• Less compliance, conformance – less insurance
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• Big risks to the social progress of the last 30 years, especially in disability rights and health and safety – the ‘social scrapheap’
• Lower standards at work leading to lower standards at work (a downward spiral) • Storing up trouble for the next 30 years – e.g. asbestos No. 2 • Fewer big global H&S champions among companies • Higher accident rates all round.
Common Themes
The following common themes were identified from the group feedback:
Education – informing and preparing the next generation of stakeholders about emerging risks, sensible risk management and communicating risks, in an environment where public attitudes to risk and responsibility may have been influenced by debate and action on public health issues such as obesity, technological advancement and climate change.
Role and nature of regulation – reviewing the regulatory framework, assessing its adequacy for controlling changing risks in the changing workplace, where the latter is quite likely to be subject to the interdependent but not necessarily mutually compatible impacts of, for example, demographic change, human performance enhancement and new ways of ‘real-time’ monitoring of workplace/worker health.
Crossovers and blurring – not just between, for example, occupational health, public health and common health issues, but between the work and the home; between health, safety and environment issues; between national and local priorities for health and safety; between privacy and monitoring at work; and between national security and personal liberty considerations – all of which may be influenced by developments in issues such as recycling, pervasive computing and the impact of environmental legislation.
Division and competition – not just between the haves and have-nots but, for example, between environmental and health and safety issues, between national and local priorities, large and small organisation priorities, work and home, technological advances and morality/ethics (for instance, with reference to the employment of those who may be genetically predisposed to certain occupational diseases, or in biotechnologies).
Continuing links to well-being – building upon the ‘good jobs, good health’ agenda, developing Health Work and Well-being, in an environment of changing demographics, flexible and/or precarious working and shifting employment patterns and increased workplace monitoring (whether for productivity or health reasons).
4.2.2 Plenary Discussion
The report back from the breakout groups was provided by Dr Schultz, and was followed by a Panel Session chaired by Jonathan Rees and featuring:
Patrick McDonald – HSE Chief Scientist Pam Hurley - Managing Director, Tosca Consulting Lisa Fowlie – President, Institution of Occupational Safety and Health Mark Du Val – Director of Policy, Local Authority Coordinators of Regulatory Services
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This provided a further opportunity for delegates to draw out and discuss topics of relevance. Key issues that emerged included:
• Work related road safety and the role of the regulator; • Separating the enforcer and the regulator; • Blurring of work and home, for example in causation of musculoskeletal disorders – the
role for ‘systems thinking’; • Disabilities and developments in ensuring equality in the workplace; • Merging of Health & Safety and Environment disciplines; • The barrier the tax regime imposes on back to work initiatives; • The role of education in sensible risk management; • The role of trades unions in well-being management; • Health and safety and the role of small businesses; • Developments in Corporate Social Responsibility and their potential for impact on work
related risk management; and • Is there the political will to act on issues thrown up by horizon scanning?
4.3 EVALUATION
Delegates were each asked to complete an evaluation questionnaire.
Overall feedback on this event was positive, with the vast majority of attendees rating it as good or excellent. The mix of those with experience of horizon scanning and those without was about even, but again the majority learned something new. The most commonly mentioned benefit was the variety of stakeholders and interest groups represented and the opportunity to network.
Looking to the future, most attendees indicated that they would provide feedback to colleagues about the event, while a small number went so far to indicate they would like to develop their own scenarios.
The scenarios session itself produced the most diverse feedback, ranging from “not differentiated sufficiently” to “entirely credible, almost here today”. Having said that, the majority of attendees reported that they found the scenarios “thought provoking”. From HSE’s perspective, outputs from the discussion groups on the scenarios really enriched our findings and will be of great value both in informing the final versions of the scenarios and in helping HSE continue to take forward this work.
Finally, looking to future engagement, there was a high degree of interest in a quarterly newsletter.
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5. WIND TUNNELLING: ANALYTIC APPROACH
5.1 PROCESS
5.1.1 Context
An alternative to the holistic approach to the use of scenarios, which was used at the November conference, is wind-tunnelling, or the analytic approach. With this approach, scenarios are used to test specific policy ideas or proposals.
A workshop was held on 7 December 2006, attended by 22 members of HSE staff and facilitated by the Infinite Futures/SAMI team.
The purpose of the workshop was not to produce any definitive conclusions on specific issues, but to demonstrate the principles behind wind-tunnelling. Therefore a range of issues was considered and this report does not go into the detail of the deliberations on particular issues. To do so on the basis of such a short session could give misleading impressions of future directions and so this report concentrates mainly on the methodology.
5.1.2 Activity Instructions
First Exercise – Review the Scenarios
In the first exercise delegates reviewed a set of elements common to all scenarios and considered their implications for HSE strategy. They were asked to indicate on a Characterisation Chart (an example of which is shown in Figure 5) the anticipated situation in 2017 in their scenario with regard to various parameters. They were also asked to identify key indicators for each scenario, i.e. clues that a particular scenario might be developing.
Characterisation
Compared to 2006, the UK social situation in 2017 will be:
Less Blame culture
Less prosperous
Work time and personal time are
distinct
Regulate to change
behaviour
Less Intrusive Safety regime
Decentralised government
More Blame culture
More prosperous
Work time and personal time are
blurred
Free market & price signals to change
behaviour
Intrusive Safety inspections
Centralised government
2006
X
X
X
X
X
X
Scenario - Rose Garden
Figure 5 Scenario Characterisation Chart
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Key Scenario Indicators
The following key scenario indicators were identified for each scenario.
The Digital Rose Garden - Reduction in economic gap between rich and poor - Low carbon footprint – increase in green products/technologies etc - Accelerated adoption of technology
Boom and Blame - Structural differences; mergers; consolidation of services; locally – chief
executives and ? - Increasing stress – cited as a cause of work absences, more people working
long hours and more poverty at the bottom. Tough Choices
- Rise of the spiv- Organised crime/black market
A Virtue of Necessity - Romanians flood to Ireland
Second Exercise – Wind-Tunnelling Conference Outputs
In this exercise, delegates were asked to consider various policy options arising from the findings of the November conference. Figures 6 to 9 below list the findings from the conference for each scenario, alongside possible policy options. It is important to stress at this point that the policy options listed were produced by the project team, not HSE policy makers. They were selected for the purposes of this exercise only and do not necessarily reflect any policy that HSE might consider in the future. The policy options selected for the workshop are highlighted.
What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health
and safety system, of these scenarios?
A Digital Rose Garden:
• Choice vs. coercion (you have no choice in this scenario) --growth in mental health issues
• Polarisation of society -- wills / will nots -- some will opt out >> dual approach from HSE, both guardian/enforcer vs. advisor, plus more education re: risk management
• Changing relationships --blurring of work and home which requires HSE to abandon distinction between occupational health and public health. Also requires a more holistic focus on well-being, and closer relationship between occupational health and the social services.
The Digital Rose Garden
Possible Policy Options1. Develop expertise and policy in the area of
mental wellbeing
2. Equal or more weight to roles of advisor / educator than to guardian / enforcer
3. Distinguish more clearly between the roles of enforcer and advisor – two brands, if not two organisations
4. More focus on risk management education. Teach children about H&S: Introduce risk management into the curriculum / scouts etc.
5. Abandon distinction between occupational health and public health
6. Develop expertise and policy in the area of holistic wellbeing
7. H&S to develop closer partnerships with with public health bodies. Build closer relationships with occupational health and the social services
8. Merge H&S with public health bodies
Figure 6 Policy options for ‘A Digital Rose Garden’
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What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health and safety system,
of these scenarios?
Boom and Blame:
• From regulation to litigation -- from criminal courts to civil courts
• Individual -- has more responsibility, but less freedom
• “Karoshi” -- STRESS -- working until you drop
• Quality of life “bloody awful”
• Major accidents due to loss of expertise, competitive insularity -- risks due to holes in expertise >> major accident potential
• Implications for surveillance of workers/workplace -- could be used for regulation tool by HSE
• Can HSE regulate the rate of change?
Boom and Blame
Possible Policy Options
1. Develop expertise and policy to cover stress
2. Move towards civil litigation to modify behaviour, rather than criminal sanctions. Introduce an insurance-based Health and Safety system, (e.g. based on the German model)
3. Introduce and enforce policies to promote continuity of safety oversight in companies
4. As pervasive surveillance is used as a tool to aid productivity, HSE should expect to use such facilities to regulate and oversee working practices
Figure 7 Policy options for ‘Boom and Blame’
What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health and safety system,
of these scenarios?
Tough Choices:
• Fewer resources for health and safety --but it’s declining in priority anyway --the focus shifts to enforcement
• Less compliance, conformance -- less insurance
• Big risks to the social progress of the last 30 years, especially in disability rights and health and safety -- the “social scrapheap”
• Lower standards at work, leading to lower standards at home (a downward spiral)
• Storing up trouble for the next 30 years -- eg, asbestos no. 2
• Fewer big global H&S champions among companies
• Higher accident rates all round
Tough Choices
Possible Policy Options
1. Communicate with and influence the public on the need for continuing Health and Safety oversight
2. Focus efforts on enforcement
3. Maintain safety standards at work, despite lack of public support
4. Scan for future asbestos-like issues. Cooperate with other agencies’ scanning efforts (DEFRA and environmental health?)
5. Prepare policy responses to possible changes to accident rates, driven by changing economic circumstances outside of HSE control
Figure 8 Policy options for ‘Tough Choices’
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What are the critical implications for health and safety in the workplace, and for the health and safety
system, of these scenarios?
A Virtue of Necessity:• Importance of education: teaching
children now about h&s
• Communicating and influencing…
• …and identifying the key stakeholders
• More local-based regulation; greater role for LA activity; and for local support networks
• Training in safety as well as health
• With SMEs, fiscal incentives rather than sanctions -- changing behaviour
• H&S merges with Environment -- one-hit, high-impact, integrated intervention
• Fitness for work -- standards for fitness given changes in ageing, generational lifestyle differences
A Virtue of NecessityPossible Policy Options
1. Teach children now about H&S. Introduce H&S into the curriculum
2. Communicate with and influence the key stakeholders
3. Introduce more local-based regulation; greater role for LA activity; and for local support networks
4. Prioritise safety above general health training
5. Introduce fiscal incentives rather than sanctions for SMEs, to change behaviour
6. H&S to merge with Environment to create a one-hit, high-impact, integrated intervention
7. Adapt standards for fitness for work to accommodate changes in ageing, and generational lifestyle differences
Figure 9 Policy options for ‘A Virtue of Necessity’
In the first part of the wind-tunnelling exercise, delegates were asked to work through two initiatives per syndicate with the aim of classifying them as success, failure, contingent or unclassifiable. This was done using a simple score card, shown in Figure 10, in which the viability of a course of action in each scenario is considered.
Wind Tunnelling – Example
Virtue of
Necessity
Equal or more weight to roles of advisor / educator than to guardian / enforcer
Become an
Enforcement
Organisation
Focus
efforts on
enforcement
Tough
Choices
Boom
Blame
Rose
Garden
10 year
Destination
Policy
Option
Figure 10 Wind-tunnelling score card
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The second part of the exercise required delegates to ‘flesh out’ successful or accepted and contingent initiatives as follows. Figure 11 shows the various outcomes of the wind-tunnelling exercise and the actions that could follow each outcome.
Actions and Strategies
Short-termAction
10 y Destination
PreparatoryActivity
ScanningActivity
10 y Destination
ContingencyPlanning
? ? ? ?
Low-costPlanning
10 y Destination
ResearchProgramme
??
10 y Destination
ReviseScenarios
FocusedScanning
Accepted
Mixed
Contingent
Unclassifiable
Figure 11 Actions and strategies following wind-tunnelling
These are as follows:
• Accepted initiatives: Describe the policy initiative as a set of short, medium and long term commitments. Add short term actions needed to prepare for medium and long term decisions.
• Contingent initiatives: Develop and outline a decision tree for contingent decisions. Specify monitoring programme for decision indicators (e.g. the Key Scenario Indicators identified earlier). Consider any low-cost preparatory work that could or should be done even before a decision to commit is made.
• Unclassifiable initiatives: Describe a research programme needed to reach a decision.
Third Exercise – Develop and Test Own Policy Proposals
In the third exercise delegates were invited to repeat the second exercise, but using policy proposals not considered so far, using as source material:
• The Horizon Scanning Hot Topics List (Section 3.1.1) • Issues from the Interview Workbook (Section 2.2) • The November Conference Output Common Issues (shown below in Figure
12)
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Common issues:
• Educating next generation of stakeholders re: emerging risks, risk management -- and communication
• Role of regulation
• Crossovers -- blurring between home / work, health & safety / environment
• Links to well-being -- should not look at health and safety in isolation
• Divides -- big and small, skills and not, will and not
Common issues
Possible Policy Options
1. Teach children now about h&s. Introduce H&S into the curriculum
2. Move towards civil litigation to modify behaviour, rather than criminal sanctions. (e.g. Insurance model?)
3. Extend the role of the Health and Safety system into: traveling on business; commuting to work; working at home; leisure activities in public places; leisure activities in private
4. Start a public debate about the trade-off between Health and Safety and environmental action
5. Measure HSE success in terms of general well-being, rather than accident rates
Figure 12 Common issues from November conference
5.2 EVALUATION
Delegates were asked to complete an evaluation questionnaire. Overall the response was positive, with 91% of delegates reporting ‘Good’ to the question on whether the event met their expectations.
Most delegates found the instructions clear and that the sessions helped them picture the scenarios clearly and helped them expand their thinking on the policy approaches considered in the groups. They welcomed the opportunity to engage with colleagues and to acquire a greater understanding of scenarios and how they can be used.
Individual comments received included:
On the process –
“The way the issue to be tested is framed is crucial. Too bland or unspecific an issue could produce a bland response.”
“This was interesting in that the views on what we were wind-tunnelling varied – was it HSE action and how we could influence things, or was it a wider action that may influence a policy or activity?”
“It is difficult to picture how these scenarios might ‘pan out’ but the notion of thinking ahead and planning policy considerations is very clear in my mind following the exercise.”
“Not enough time for the exercise.”
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“I think it would have been better to concentrate on one initiative and do it in more detail. There wasn’t really time to discuss the topics and come to a considered view about the scoring.”
On future actions –
“Encourage HSE to engage with DWP at a more senior level to extol the virtues of theapproach.”
On possible future topics –
“The project looking at the ‘footprint’ of HSE i.e. its geographical locations.”
“How HSE can influence H/S systems and awareness at school level [8-15 yr?] What novel wayscan HSE use to persuade school authorities and children to accept that H/S is a key learning skill and competence for the future world of work?”
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6. NEXT STEPS
6.1 DISSEMINATION WITHIN HSE
Why engage in scanning and foresight? The flow of new ideas builds flexibility into an organisation, creates a learning culture, and encourages innovation. You can’t force people to look ahead – but most do welcome the opportunity for reflective and creative thought. Start by involving those who are most interested in exploring the future, and build positive word-of-mouth. Encourage that with robust foresight tools, a clear evidence trail, and conclusions that are both thought provoking and concrete in their implications.
Keep the scenarios alive. Create a menu of ways you might use them for different audiences. This could include:
• Use the scenarios yourselves: as new ‘hot topics’ arise, imagine how they might emerge in each of the four futures, and what questions, challenges, or opportunities they would create.
• Present examples of incasting or wind tunnelling output in the scanning newsletter, highlighting interesting applications of the scenarios to specific issues and questions.
• Offer half-day, on-site “scan and scenarios” workshops to specific teams within HSE. Do mini-interviews by phone with participants first to determine what issues they think are critical, and use those to focus presentations and scenario exercises.
• Explore values: ask people to choose what they most like and most deplore in each scenario and use the resulting discussion to articulate and fine-tune a preferred future for health and safety in the workplace, and HSE’s role in assuring that.
• Update the scenarios: change changes, and so should the scenarios. Monitor the news for events that match the scenario patterns, potentially confirming them, altering them, or rendering them obsolete.
Using the scenarios in a variety of activities and settings will allow you to evaluate how they can most effectively contribute to a culture of foresight within the HSE.
6.2 DISSEMINATION EXTERNALLY
The Horizon Scanning Conference generated a lot of interest both in HSE’s Horizon Scanning efforts, and in the scenarios. This needs to be built on by:
• Producing a Horizon Scanning Newsletter. • Using the scenarios to engage with HSE’s stakeholders, for example, by running short
workshops. • Continuing to expand the range of short form reports on hot topics. • Promoting the scenarios through the OSI FAN Club (Future Analysts Network).
6.3 ONGOING FORESIGHT
The scenarios have brought together much of the information gathered in the first eighteen months of the operation of HSE’s new horizon scanning system. They can be used now to guide future scanning activities. Now that the scanning groundwork has been carried out and that new topics may well not surface so frequently, it may be appropriate to turn the focus of activity towards dissemination
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of the findings at the expense of scanning, although scanning does, of course, need to be continued.
42
APPENDIX 1: INTERVIEWEES
Professor Raymond Agius, Professor of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, University of Manchester Dr Janet Asherson, Head of Policy, CBI Dr Andrew Auty, Managing Director, Re: Liability (Oxford) Ltd Stephan Bevan, Director of Research, The Work Foundation Gary Booton, Director of Health, Safety and Environment, EEF The Manufacturers’ Organisation Bill Callaghan, Chair, Health and Safety Commission Sandra Caldwell, Director Field Operations, HSE Kären Clayton, Head of Process Safety Corporate Topic Group, HSE Mike Cross, Head of Operations, Construction Division NW, HSE Dr Andrew Curran, Director Health Improvement Group, Health and Safety Laboratory, HSE Dr Paul Davies, formerly Head of Hazardous Installations and Chief Scientist, HSE Dr Brian Fullam, Head Corporate Science and Knowledge Unit, HSE Rory Heap, Disability Rights Commission Professor Sir David King, Government Chief Scientific Adviser Keith Montague, formerly development Director, CIRIA Kevin Myers, Head Hazardous Installations Directorate, HSE Michael Parkes, Head of Environmental Health and Trading Standards, Sandwell MBC Professor Monder Ram, Professor of Small Business, De Montfort University Jonathan Rees, Deputy Director General, HSE Kevin Ross, Director of Legal Services and Enforcement, Commission for Racial Equality Dr Robert Turner, Head of Occupational Hygiene Specialist Group, HSE David Wallington, Group Safety Adviser, BT Professor David Walters, Seafarers International Research Centre, University of Cardiff and TUC Chair of the Working Environment Lawrence Waterman, Chair of Sypol and Head of Health and Safety, Olympic Delivery Authority Dr Angela Wilkinson, Director, Scenarios and Futures Research, James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford Jerry Williams, Head of Human Factors Group, Health and Safety Laboratory, HSE Jane Willis, Strategic Programme Director, HSE Richard Worsley, Director, The Tomorrow Project
43
44
APPENDIX 2: FULL SCENARIOS
The full or research scenarios for this project each begin with a brief overview of conditions in 2017 and the historical changes that created them. They then explore how life is different in the future in greater detail:
• What concepts, ideas and paradigms define the world around us? • How do we relate to each other – what are the social structures and relationships that
link people and organisations? • How do we connect with each other – what technologies connect people, places and
things? • What are the processes and technologies through which we create goods and services? • How do we consume goods and services – how do we acquire and use them?
Each scenario ends by focussing on the changing workplace, and changed health and safety issues.
45
46
47
HSE
Sce
nario
Pro
ject
: The
Dig
ital R
ose
Gar
den
Intr
oduc
tion:
Th
is s
cena
rio is
one
of a
set
of f
our c
ompr
isin
g H
SE
’s S
cena
rios
for t
he F
utur
e of
H
ealth
and
Saf
ety
in 2
017.
The
sce
nario
s re
sulte
d fro
m d
iscu
ssio
ns a
nd g
roup
w
ork
durin
g a
scen
ario
-bui
ldin
g w
orks
hop
(20-
21 J
uly
2006
) hos
ted
by H
SE
’s
Hor
izon
Sca
nnin
g te
am a
s pa
rt of
a w
ider
sce
nario
-pla
nnin
g pr
ojec
t. P
artic
ipan
ts
prio
ritis
ed c
hang
e is
sues
and
cre
ated
the
‘sce
nario
cro
ss’ t
o th
e rig
ht th
at
prov
ided
the
logi
cal f
ram
ewor
k fo
r the
four
sce
nario
s. T
he ti
me
horiz
on ta
rget
ed
was
201
7. T
his
scen
ario
, ‘Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n’, i
s dr
iven
by
incr
ease
d pe
rson
al re
spon
sibi
lity
and
incr
ease
d ris
k to
lera
nce
com
bine
d w
ith in
crea
sed
UK
co
mpe
titiv
enes
s in
the
glob
al p
oliti
cal e
cono
my
(illu
stra
ted
low
er ri
ght).
Sce
nario
s ar
e no
t pre
dict
ions
of t
he fu
ture
-th
ey a
re v
ivid
sto
ries
abou
t pos
sibl
e fu
ture
s. T
hey
help
us
expl
ore
the
boun
darie
s of
unc
erta
inty
def
ined
by
spec
ified
dr
iver
s of
cha
nge.
Sce
nario
s w
ritte
n fo
r int
erac
tive
exer
cise
s ar
e ty
pica
lly b
rief,
depi
cted
in p
erso
nal r
athe
r tha
n in
stitu
tiona
l ane
cdot
es, a
nd s
alte
d w
ith h
umou
r (la
ught
er a
ids
impa
ct a
nd m
emor
y).
But
thes
e ar
e be
st b
ased
on
rese
arch
sc
enar
ios:
lon
ger n
arra
tives
, dep
icte
d in
bro
ader
term
s. T
he re
sear
ch
scen
ario
for ‘
The
Dig
ital R
ose
Gar
den’
beg
ins
with
a b
rief o
verv
iew
of
cond
ition
s in
201
7 an
d th
e hi
stor
ical
cha
nges
that
cre
ated
them
. It
then
ex
plor
es h
ow li
fe is
diff
eren
t in
this
futu
re in
gre
ater
det
ail:i
•W
hat c
once
pts,
idea
s an
d pa
radi
gms
defin
e th
e w
orld
aro
und
us?
•H
ow d
o w
e re
late
to e
ach
othe
r – w
hat a
re th
e so
cial
stru
ctur
es a
nd
rela
tions
hips
that
link
peo
ple
and
orga
nisa
tions
? •
How
do
we
conn
ect w
ith e
ach
othe
r --w
hat t
echn
olog
ies
conn
ect
peop
le, p
lace
s an
d th
ings
? •
Wha
t are
the
proc
esse
s an
d te
chno
logi
es th
roug
h w
hich
we
crea
te
good
s an
d se
rvic
es?
•H
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow d
o w
e ac
quire
and
use
th
em?
The
scen
ario
fini
shes
by
focu
sing
on
the
chan
ging
wor
kpla
ce, a
nd c
hang
ed
heal
th a
nd s
afet
y is
sues
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
Scen
ario
Cro
ss
Per
sona
l res
pons
ibili
ty, p
ro-a
ctiv
e ad
optio
n of
tech
nolo
gy,
man
agem
ent o
f ris
k, a
bilit
y to
abs
orb
impa
cts
of c
onfli
ct/w
ar a
nd
resi
lienc
e in
the
face
of e
cono
mic
/soc
ial/o
ther
sho
cks
iti ii
li
; di
ll
in
l;
ii
mi
; l
ill-
iia
l i
iti
Incr
ease
d U
K
com
pet
vene
ss,
harm
onsa
ton
of
regu
aton
sffe
rent
y ab
ed
emp
oym
ent
ncor
pora
ton
of
gran
tsen
terp
rise
cutu
re,
expe
ctat
on o
f w
ebe
ng a
nd
soc
cohe
son
Dec
reas
ed U
K
com
pet
vene
ss
Bla
me
cultu
re, r
esis
tanc
e to
new
tech
nolo
gy, r
ejec
tion
of ri
sk,
shat
tere
d by
impa
cts
of c
onfli
ct/w
ar a
nd fr
agili
ty in
the
face
of
econ
omic
/soc
ial/o
ther
sho
cks Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n P
erso
nal r
espo
nsib
ility
, pro
-act
ive
adop
tion
of
tech
nolo
gy, m
anag
emen
t of r
isk,
abi
lity
to a
bsor
b im
pact
s of
con
flict
/war
and
resi
lienc
e in
the
face
of
eco
nom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er s
hock
s
Incr
ease
d U
K c
ompe
titiv
enes
s, h
arm
onis
atio
n of
re
gula
tions
; diff
eren
tly a
bled
in e
mpl
oym
ent;
inco
rpor
atio
n of
mig
rant
s; e
nter
pris
e cu
lture
, ex
pect
atio
n of
wel
l-bei
ng a
nd s
ocia
l coh
esio
n
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
48
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
‘The
Dig
ital R
ose
Gar
den’
Ove
rvie
w
As
the
20th
ce
ntur
y en
ded,
an
alys
ts
wro
te
‘202
0’
fore
cast
s, s
cena
rios,
and
vis
ions
– f
or c
ities
, pr
ovin
ces,
an
d co
untri
es;
for
com
pani
es,
agen
cies
, an
d en
tire
sect
ors;
an
d fo
r sp
ecie
s,
ecos
yste
ms,
an
d pl
anet
ary
dyna
mic
s.
From
the
van
tage
of
2017
– w
ithin
hai
ling
dist
ance
of 2
020
–
Brita
in h
as h
arne
ssed
the
cre
ativ
ity o
f its
div
erse
soc
iety
in
ser
vice
to b
oth
the
econ
omy
and
the
envi
ronm
ent.
This
re
new
ed,
cohe
sive
sp
irit
of
inno
vatio
n lo
oks
likel
y to
cr
eate
the
‘R
oarin
g Tw
entie
s’ o
f th
e 21
st
cent
ury.
A
bu
mpe
r cr
op
of
new
bu
sine
sses
ha
s en
ergi
sed
the
natio
nal
econ
omy.
G
radu
ates
in
th
e sc
ienc
es
and
mat
hem
atic
s ar
e pa
rtner
ing
with
the
best
in B
ritis
h de
sign
, ge
nera
ting
econ
omic
va
lue
in
bios
cien
ces,
m
ater
ials
sc
ienc
es, a
nd n
anot
echn
olog
y, a
nd a
ttrac
ting
a br
ain
gain
in
tern
atio
nally
. Ex
pert
yout
h ar
e w
orki
ng w
ith e
xper
ienc
ed
seni
ors
on th
e re
al m
illenn
ium
cha
lleng
es:
glob
al c
limat
e ch
ange
, pov
erty
, and
sus
tain
abilit
y.
Briti
sh
empl
oyee
s ar
e st
ayin
g at
ho
me,
an
d so
ar
e Br
itain
’s b
usin
esse
s.
Offs
horin
g is
dec
linin
g –
as B
RIC
s (B
razi
l, R
ussi
a, In
dia
and
Chi
na) a
nd e
mer
ging
eco
nom
ies
incr
ease
th
eir
wea
lth
and
the
sala
ries
paid
to
th
eir
wor
kers
, th
e co
mpa
rativ
e ad
vant
age
of o
vers
eas
labo
ur
has
decl
ined
. In
crea
sing
inte
rnat
iona
l sta
ndar
disa
tion
of
regu
latio
ns h
as a
lso
rais
ed o
vers
eas
oper
atin
g co
sts,
pa
rticu
larly
in
co
mpa
rison
to
th
e le
aner
, ra
tiona
lised
re
gula
tory
fram
ewor
k in
the
UK.
Peop
le a
re c
hann
ellin
g th
eir
inne
r Ed
mun
d H
illary
– o
r, m
ore
appr
opria
tely
, the
ir in
ner
Kevi
n W
arw
ick
(pio
neer
in
the
hum
an-m
achi
ne in
terfa
ce;
he e
mbe
dded
a m
icro
chip
in
hi
s ar
m).
It’s
the
age
of
cool
ex
plor
ers
and
new
ad
vent
ures
; ris
ks
are
ackn
owle
dged
, w
eigh
ed,
and
man
aged
in
coop
erat
ive
publ
ic-p
rivat
e pa
rtner
ship
s th
at
enab
le a
con
tinuo
us s
tream
of
resp
onsi
ble
inno
vatio
n.
This
hei
ghte
ned
com
fort
with
man
agin
g ris
ks h
eigh
tens
co
mfo
rt w
ith t
rans
form
ativ
e te
chno
logi
es o
n an
indi
vidu
al
leve
l as
wel
l; hi
stor
y m
ay c
ome
to k
now
this
new
‘Roa
ring
Twen
ties’
as
the
‘Tra
nshu
man
ist T
wen
ties’
. Br
itain
’s n
ext
deca
de w
ill tra
nsfo
rm i
ts e
cono
my
and
envi
ronm
ent
for
the
bette
r, bu
t ho
w
will
hist
ory
judg
e th
e in
crea
sing
tra
nsfo
rmat
ion
of h
uman
s th
emse
lves
?
Rec
ent H
isto
ry (2
007
– 20
17)
2007
: At
titud
es to
war
ds r
isk
wer
e in
flux
at t
he b
egin
ning
of
the
21st
ce
ntur
y.
Gen
erat
ion
X a
nd M
illenn
ials
bot
h ex
hibi
ted
a lo
ve o
f ris
k w
ith t
heir
penc
hant
for
‘ex
trem
e’
spor
ts li
ke s
now
boar
ding
, ba
se ju
mpi
ng,
free
runn
ing,
or
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
49
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
zorb
ing.
ii An
em
ergi
ng g
ener
atio
nal v
alue
shi
ft em
brac
ed
the
cons
ciou
s m
anag
emen
t of r
isk
by in
divi
dual
s.
This
was
acc
eler
ated
by
adva
nces
in h
uman
per
form
ance
en
hanc
emen
t and
bio
nic
tech
nolo
gies
. Th
e lin
e be
twee
n re
habi
litat
ive
pros
thet
ics
and
hum
an a
ugm
enta
tion
was
bl
urrin
g, a
s ev
iden
ced
by t
he s
imila
rity
betw
een
Otto
Bo
ck’s
spr
ing-
base
d pr
osth
etic
foot
and
Pow
eris
er s
prin
g st
ilts.
iii If
extre
me
activ
ities
ris
ked
phys
ical
dam
age,
but
th
e re
sulti
ng r
ebui
ld o
f yo
ur b
ody
impr
oved
it b
eyon
d its
‘n
atur
al’ l
evel
s of
abi
lity,
wha
t was
the
dow
nsid
e?
The
dow
nsid
e w
as t
he u
ncer
tain
ty s
urro
undi
ng t
he lo
ng-
term
effe
cts
on i
ndiv
idua
ls o
f su
ch ‘
rebu
ilds’
. Ye
t m
any
pres
sed
ahea
d an
yway
. Thi
s w
as w
idel
y in
terp
rete
d as
a
sign
that
priv
ate
indi
vidu
als
wer
e in
crea
sing
ly p
repa
red
to
man
age
risks
for
th
emse
lves
. Th
is c
ontri
bute
d to
the
gr
owin
g er
osio
n of
the
so-c
alle
d ‘N
anny
Sta
te’ w
orld
view
.
Exci
tem
ent
abou
t th
e st
ill un
tapp
ed p
oten
tial o
f th
e ne
w
biot
echn
olog
ies
and
bios
cien
ces
snap
ped
publ
ic p
atie
nce
with
the
mor
e ag
gres
sive
ele
men
ts o
f th
e an
imal
rig
hts
lobb
y.
Ther
e w
as w
ides
prea
d su
ppor
t fo
r po
licie
s to
pr
eser
ve t
he p
harm
aceu
tical
ind
ustry
and
agg
ress
ivel
y su
ppor
t th
e U
K’s
bios
cien
ces
sect
or,
both
aca
dem
ic a
nd
priv
ate.
2009
: In
spr
ing
of 2
009,
Wes
t Nile
Viru
s cr
osse
d Br
itish
bo
rder
s, w
ith o
ver 3
0 ca
ses
iden
tifie
d w
ithin
a w
eek.
The
ou
tbre
ak
was
sw
iftly
co
ntai
ned,
w
ith
no
fata
litie
s,
high
light
ing
once
m
ore
the
stre
ngth
of
th
e U
K’s
bios
cien
ces
sect
or,
and
the
effe
ctiv
e ‘tr
ipod
’ pa
rtner
ship
st
rate
gy l
inki
ng h
ealth
and
bio
scie
nces
aca
dem
ics,
the
he
alth
indu
stry
, and
the
publ
ic h
ealth
age
ncie
s.
2011
: Th
e si
gnifi
cant
env
ironm
enta
l bre
akth
roug
h of
the
ea
rly 2
1st ce
ntur
y w
as p
oliti
cal r
athe
r th
an s
cien
tific
: Th
e U
SA s
igne
d th
e Ky
oto
acco
rds.
In
itiat
ives
to
addr
ess
glob
al c
limat
e ch
ange
and
its
im
pact
s fin
ally
had
bot
h te
eth
and
reso
urce
s.
Chi
na’s
eco
nom
ic m
omen
tum
suf
fere
d a
hicc
up a
fter
the
Augu
st 2
011
polit
ical
mel
tdow
n in
Bei
jing.
D
evol
utio
n to
gr
eate
r re
gion
al a
uton
omy
slow
ed b
usin
ess
grow
th a
s po
litic
al a
nd e
cono
mic
pow
er s
truct
ures
reco
nfig
ured
.
2013
: A
jo
int
gove
rnm
ent
and
insu
ranc
e co
nsor
tium
an
alys
is o
f ris
k be
havi
our i
ntro
duce
s th
e ‘S
afe
as H
ouse
s’
cam
paig
n.
This
so
ught
to
ed
ucat
e te
chno
logi
cally
en
hanc
ed p
eopl
e ab
out
the
rela
tive
risk
of e
xpec
ting
too
muc
h fro
m
thei
r ‘te
chno
logi
cal
enha
ncem
ent’
whe
n ca
rryi
ng o
ut c
omm
on a
ctiv
ities
: ca
rryin
g sh
oppi
ng,
DIY
an
d le
isur
e pu
rsui
ts s
uch
as jo
ggin
g an
d gy
m.
2015
: W
ith C
hina
bou
ncin
g ba
ck e
cono
mic
ally
fro
m t
he
rest
ruct
urin
g of
20
11,
Chi
nese
po
licy-
mak
ers
and
busi
ness
es
look
ab
road
fo
r as
sist
ance
in
reg
ular
isin
g he
alth
and
saf
ety
stan
dard
s, p
roto
cols
, an
d re
gula
tions
. H
SE w
ins
the
cont
ract
to d
evel
op a
nd la
unch
an
‘HSE
for
Chi
na’ b
y le
vera
ging
its
track
reco
rd a
nd e
xper
tise.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
50
2017
: Th
e U
K’s
glob
al
stre
ngth
in
na
note
chno
logy
re
sear
ch
and
desi
gn
bear
s fru
it as
N
anom
ed
Plc’
s re
sear
ch d
ivis
ion
anno
unce
s st
ill m
ore
brea
kthr
ough
s in
ca
ncer
det
ectio
n an
d pr
even
tion.
In t
he p
ast
deca
de,
pers
onal
aug
men
tatio
n an
d hu
man
pe
rform
ance
enh
ance
men
t ha
ve g
iven
an
entir
ely
new
tw
ist
to ‘
mar
gina
lisat
ion’
and
‘di
ffere
ntly
-abl
ed’.
The
31
Oct
ober
201
7 “1
00%
org
anic
hum
an b
ean”
dem
onst
ratio
n in
Hyd
e Pa
rk w
as o
rgan
ised
by
a ba
ckla
sh m
ovem
ent
cele
brat
ing
the
joys
of s
impl
icity
(rem
aini
ng a
ugm
enta
tion-
free)
, and
has
cre
ated
a p
ublic
deb
ate
on th
e re
spon
sibl
e de
sign
of f
utur
e hu
man
s.
In-D
epth
Exp
lora
tion
Def
ine:
w
hat
conc
epts
, id
eas,
par
adig
ms,
and
val
ues
defin
e th
is w
orld
?
Pund
its h
ave
sugg
este
d th
at e
xper
ts fi
nally
exh
aust
ed th
e pu
blic
’s
abilit
y to
ab
sorb
th
e ‘w
arni
ng
of
the
wee
k’:
“But
ter’s
bad
for
you
-us
e m
arga
rine!
” “T
he tr
ans-
fats
in
mar
garin
e ar
e ba
d fo
r yo
u –
use
oliv
e oi
l!”
Out
of
the
absu
rditi
es
has
emer
ged
the
age
of
the
cons
ider
ed
ratio
nal r
espo
nse:
“C
lean
lines
s m
ay b
e ne
xt to
god
lines
s,
but
we
surv
ived
chi
ldho
od w
ithou
t al
l th
ose
antib
acte
rial
clea
nser
s; a
ll th
ings
in m
oder
atio
n”.
Kids
are
allo
wed
to
fall
out
of t
rees
; th
e oc
casi
onal
scu
ff or
bru
ise
is p
art
of
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
grow
ing
up.iv
Th
e pu
blic
de
man
ds
trans
pare
ncy
of
info
rmat
ion,
but
reje
cts
alar
mis
m.
As a
res
ult,
open
deb
ate
and
enga
gem
ent
abou
t ne
w
tech
nolo
gies
an
d em
ergi
ng
heal
th
and
safe
ty
issu
es
char
acte
rise
polic
y fo
rmul
atio
n. T
he c
orol
lary
in th
e pr
ivat
e sp
here
is a
hei
ghte
ned
ackn
owle
dgem
ent o
f per
sona
l and
or
gani
satio
nal
resp
onsi
bilit
y an
d ac
coun
tabi
lity.
An
ex
plic
itly
stat
ed m
oral
res
pons
e to
dec
isio
n-ta
king
and
im
pact
ass
essm
ent i
s no
w h
ighl
y va
lued
in b
rand
stra
tegy
. Fa
ir tra
de,
sust
aina
bilit
y,
and
corp
orat
e so
cial
re
spon
sibi
lity
are
esse
ntia
l el
emen
ts
of
succ
ess
in
busi
ness
. Bo
th th
e pu
blic
and
priv
ate
sect
ors
see
wor
king
in
pa
rtner
ship
as
ke
y to
ac
hiev
ing
trans
pare
nt
acco
unta
bilit
y. T
his
incr
ease
d pu
blic
and
priv
ate
sect
or
trans
pare
ncy
has
wid
ened
the
poo
l of
ear
ly a
dopt
ers.
Pe
ople
ar
e no
w
mor
e lik
ely
to
embr
ace
inno
vatio
ns
perc
eive
d as
ben
efic
ial,
such
as
expe
rt-sy
stem
-bas
ed a
nd
robo
tic h
ealth
care
, ge
ne t
hera
py,
and
even
hea
lth a
nd
safe
ty p
rodu
cts
aris
ing
from
nan
otec
hnol
ogy.
The
glob
al s
cien
tific
and
pol
icy
cons
ensu
s th
at c
limat
e ch
ange
is u
pon
us d
emon
stra
tes
inte
rnat
iona
l con
fiden
ce
in c
limat
e m
odel
s.
Mor
e ge
nera
lly,
it de
mon
stra
tes
how
de
eply
roo
ted
the
syst
ems
pers
pect
ive
has
beco
me
in
scie
nce,
pol
icy,
and
bus
ines
s.
Mor
e an
d m
ore
insi
ghts
an
d in
nova
tions
em
erge
fro
m c
once
pts
base
d on
cha
otic
sy
stem
beh
avio
ur o
r in
tellig
ent a
gent
s an
d se
lf-or
gani
sing
co
mpl
ex a
dapt
ive
syst
ems.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
51
Rel
ate:
how
do
peop
le re
late
to e
ach
othe
r – w
hat a
re th
e so
cial
stru
ctur
es a
nd r
elat
ions
hips
tha
t lin
k pe
ople
and
or
gani
satio
ns?
Peop
le a
re m
ore
polit
ical
ly e
ngag
ed. T
he g
over
nmen
t is
cu
rren
tly r
eapi
ng t
he b
enef
its o
f in
crea
sed
publ
ic r
espe
ct
for
inst
itutio
ns,
spec
ifica
lly l
ever
agin
g th
e po
wer
of
self-
orga
nisi
ng g
roup
s to
add
ress
com
plex
cha
lleng
es.
A
deca
de o
f so
cial
net
wor
king
am
plifi
ed b
y w
eb r
esou
rces
lik
e Li
nked
In,
MyS
pace
, an
d Li
veJo
urna
l cr
eate
d a
com
plex
web
of p
erso
nal i
nter
conn
ectio
ns a
cros
s di
vers
e po
pula
tions
. Th
e in
clus
iven
ess
of o
nlin
e co
mm
uniti
es
with
reg
ard
to p
revi
ousl
y m
argi
nalis
ed g
roup
s lik
e th
e el
derly
, th
e di
ffere
ntly
abl
ed,
and
ethn
ic c
omm
uniti
es i
s re
flect
ed in
real
life
by
incr
ease
d so
cial
coh
esio
n.
Con
sequ
ently
, tod
ay’s
pol
icy
aren
a se
es fa
r fe
wer
sin
gle-
issu
e ca
mpa
igns
. In
add
ition
, th
e co
nsen
sus
on c
limat
e ch
ange
pr
oved
a
unify
ing
chal
leng
e th
at
cata
lyse
d in
crea
sing
pub
lic s
uppo
rt of
sus
tain
abilit
y. T
he r
esul
ting
‘War
on
C
arbo
n’
help
s fo
cus
polic
y pr
iorit
ies
amon
g po
litic
ians
, civ
il se
rvan
ts, a
nd c
onst
ituen
ts.
Glo
bal
rela
tions
hips
hav
e ac
hiev
ed a
new
bal
ance
, as
ec
onom
ies
outs
ide
the
Wes
t gr
ow
and
stre
ngth
en,
parti
cula
rly
thos
e of
Br
azil,
R
ussi
a,
Indi
a,
and
Chi
na
(BR
IC).
Fina
ncia
l and
lega
l ser
vice
s ar
e m
ore
glob
al a
nd
mor
e lib
eral
ised
(W
TO),
and
are
a su
bsta
ntia
l sh
are
of
glob
al G
DP.
Thi
s co
nver
genc
e of
eco
nom
ies
wor
ldw
ide
is
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
vast
ly e
xpan
ding
the
glo
bal m
iddl
e cl
ass,
mea
ning
mor
e po
tent
ial c
onsu
mer
s, a
nd m
ore
pote
ntia
l tou
rists
. C
lose
r to
hom
e, B
ritai
n’s
links
with
in th
e EU
hav
e st
reng
then
ed.
Briti
sh s
ocie
ty h
as r
educ
ed t
he h
ave-
have
not
gap
, bu
t no
t er
adic
ated
it
entir
ely.
Th
e w
ealth
div
ide
still
follo
ws
the
educ
atio
n di
vide
, al
thou
gh w
ith in
crea
sing
pro
sper
ity
mor
e pu
blic
res
ourc
es a
re b
eing
inve
sted
in e
duca
tion
to
addr
ess
that
issu
e.
The
gene
ratio
n ga
p is
bei
ng r
apid
ly
eras
ed
by
the
trend
in
‘v
igor
ous
agei
ng’;
mor
e so
phis
ticat
ed h
ealth
care
, a
grea
ter
unde
rsta
ndin
g of
the
ag
eing
pro
cess
, an
d hu
man
per
form
ance
enh
ance
men
t ha
ve s
wel
led
the
over
-65
wor
kfor
ce.
This
als
o m
eans
the
aver
age
disp
osab
le i
ncom
e fo
r ov
er-6
5s h
as i
ncre
ased
co
nsid
erab
ly.
In
addi
tion,
ad
vanc
ed
gero
ntol
ogy
and
assi
stiv
e te
chno
logi
es e
nabl
e gr
eate
r in
depe
nden
ce e
ven
for
fraile
r se
nior
s.
Hom
e he
alth
sys
tem
s in
terc
onne
cted
with
loca
l cl
inic
s an
d ho
spita
ls a
llow
OAP
s to
rem
ain
hom
e lo
nger
, an
d m
ake
it ea
sier
for
chi
ldre
n to
car
e fo
r th
eir
pare
nts
them
selv
es.
Rea
l est
ate
agen
ts r
epor
t a b
oom
in g
rann
y fla
ts a
nd d
emog
raph
ers
conc
ur t
hat
the
num
ber
of m
ulti-
gene
ratio
nal
hom
es i
s in
crea
sing
. Th
e ge
nera
tions
are
cl
oser
kni
t w
ithin
fam
ilies
, an
d th
e fa
milie
s ar
e m
ore
clos
ely
tied
to t
heir
inte
rest
gro
ups
and
soci
al n
etw
orks
, cr
eatin
g en
tirel
y ne
w fo
rms
of e
xten
ded
fam
ilies.
Our
re
latio
nshi
p w
ith
the
envi
ronm
ent
has
chan
ged.
G
loba
l cl
imat
e ch
ange
is
now
a g
iven
, w
hich
thr
ows
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
52
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
issu
es o
f sus
tain
abilit
y in
to s
tark
relie
f. Sc
hool
child
ren
are
taug
ht to
con
side
r th
e im
pact
of l
ifest
yle
choi
ces
on t
heir
ecol
ogic
al
foot
prin
t. Th
e go
vern
men
t is
di
scus
sing
re
stric
ting
carb
on u
se b
y in
stitu
ting
carb
on r
atio
n ca
rds
and
carb
on lo
tterie
s fo
r bot
h in
divi
dual
s an
d or
gani
satio
ns.
The
upsi
de i
s an
enh
ance
d se
nse
of c
onne
ctio
n to
the
na
tiona
l la
ndsc
ape
and
the
glob
al b
iosp
here
. Br
itain
is
grow
ing
perc
eptib
ly
war
mer
an
d w
ette
r, an
d se
asid
e to
wns
– l
ike
Sout
hpor
t –
are
incr
easi
ngly
und
er f
lood
th
reat
.
Con
nect
: ho
w d
o w
e co
nnec
t w
ith e
ach
othe
r --
wha
t te
chno
logi
es c
onne
ct p
eopl
e, p
lace
s, a
nd th
ings
?
This
may
be
the
first
gen
erat
ion
that
fin
ds t
hem
selv
es
thin
king
, “G
rand
ma
wou
ld c
all
my
kids
cyb
orgs
.” Ke
vin
War
wic
kv of
Rea
ding
Uni
vers
ity w
as t
he f
irst
pers
on t
o em
bed
a m
icro
chip
into
his
ner
vous
sys
tem
– a
lthou
gh h
e di
dn’t
orig
inat
e th
e id
ea –
and
onc
e w
e’d
chip
ped
jew
elle
ry
and
clot
hes,
ski
n w
as th
e ne
xt o
bvio
us la
yer.
In t
he f
irst
year
s of
the
21st
ce
ntur
y, s
oftw
are
mas
hups
cr
eate
d ne
w p
rodu
cts
by l
ayer
ing
and
inte
rcon
nect
ing
exis
ting
softw
are
and
data
base
s in
new
way
s.vi
Th
is w
as
para
llele
d by
har
dwar
e m
ashu
ps -
the
seam
less
web
of
com
putin
g, c
omm
unic
atio
ns,
med
ia,
and
gam
ing
devi
ces
that
wer
e em
bedd
ed i
n ca
rs,
clot
hes,
jew
elle
ry,
cont
act
lens
es, a
nd fi
nally
, our
selv
es.
Indi
vidu
als
can
wal
k do
wn
the
Hig
h St
reet
in
re
al
life
and
in
virtu
al
life
sim
ulta
neou
sly,
sw
itchi
ng b
etw
een
thei
r ph
ysic
al s
elve
s an
d th
eir
vario
us a
vata
rs fr
om o
ne c
onve
rsat
ion
and
one
data
stre
am to
the
next
.
Seco
nd L
ifevi
i ce
ased
to
be m
erel
y a
soci
al a
nd g
ames
en
viro
nmen
t on
5 A
pril
2010
, w
hen
the
seve
ral F
ar E
ast
natio
ns o
pene
d di
gita
l em
bass
ies
ther
e.vi
ii O
ffice
s an
d re
al-w
orld
in
com
e-ge
nera
ting
busi
ness
es
had
been
th
rivin
g fo
r ye
ars
prio
r to
that
. Th
e bl
urrin
g of
bou
ndar
ies
betw
een
the
real
and
dig
ital
wor
lds
has
impl
oded
the
bo
unda
ries
betw
een
polit
ics,
wor
k, fa
mily
life
, lei
sure
, art,
an
d sp
iritu
ality
. Th
is g
ener
atio
n of
dig
ital n
eo-r
oman
tics
sees
no
dist
inct
ion
betw
een
life
and
art.
Cre
ate:
wha
t are
the
proc
esse
s an
d te
chno
logi
es th
roug
h w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
and
ser
vice
s?
The
new
pro
cess
es o
f de
sign
and
pro
duct
ion
are
base
d on
the
con
verg
ence
of
the
bios
cien
ces
and
the
mat
eria
l sc
ienc
es,
and
on
the
conn
ectio
n be
twee
n ge
netic
en
gine
erin
g an
d na
note
chno
logy
. ‘B
iom
imic
ry’,
popu
laris
ed b
y Ja
nine
Ben
yus’
boo
k of
the
sam
e na
me,
is
a st
aple
of
indu
stria
l des
ign,
dra
win
g in
spira
tion
for
new
pr
oduc
ts a
nd e
ven
serv
ices
fro
m n
atur
e.ix
Th
e U
K’s
inte
llect
ual
reso
urce
s in
bio
scie
nces
, m
ater
ial
scie
nces
, na
note
ch,
and
desi
gn
have
gi
ven
UK
co
mpa
nies
a
deci
sive
edg
e in
this
sec
tor.
The
‘bio
nano
boo
m’ r
ecal
ls
the
dotc
om
boom
of
th
e la
te
90’s
; in
vent
ors
and
entre
pren
eurs
ar
e cr
eatin
g bi
osci
ence
s an
d m
ater
ials
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
53
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
scie
nces
sta
rt-up
s w
ith a
n en
d-go
al o
f buy
-out
by
a la
rger
co
mpa
ny.
Larg
e co
mpa
nies
are
in
turn
cre
atin
g m
ore
skun
kwor
ks; a
ctin
g as
ang
els
to s
mal
l ent
repr
eneu
rs; a
nd
partn
erin
g w
ith u
nive
rsiti
es.
Get
ting
cust
omer
s in
volv
ed
via
‘pee
r pro
duct
ion’
stra
tegi
es tu
rbo-
char
ges
crea
tivity
by
x la
yerin
g m
ultip
le
pers
pect
ives
.Al
l th
ese
stra
tegi
es
enliv
en t
he U
K’s
ente
rpris
e cu
lture
and
mak
e Br
itain
the
w
orkp
lace
of c
hoic
e fo
r glo
bal ‘
know
ledg
e no
mad
s’.xi
At t
he s
ame
time,
acc
ount
abilit
y an
d co
rpor
ate
soci
al
resp
onsi
bilit
y ar
e cr
itica
l in
attr
actin
g cu
stom
ers.
H
ow
som
ethi
ng
is
crea
ted,
its
ec
olog
ical
fo
otpr
int,
and
its
‘cra
dle-
to-c
radl
e’
lifep
lan,
ar
e m
ajor
se
lling
poin
ts.
Cus
tom
ers
cons
ider
th
e qu
ality
of
th
e pr
oces
s as
im
porta
nt a
s th
e qu
ality
of
the
final
pro
duct
or
serv
ice.
Th
e us
e of
RFI
D c
hips
on
all c
onsu
mab
les
enab
les
auto
-re
cycl
ing
and
mor
e ef
ficie
nt r
e-us
e, a
s w
ell
as e
ffici
ent
track
ing
for
pollu
tion
and
was
te-m
onito
ring
purp
oses
. As
a
bonu
s it
incr
ease
s se
curit
y fo
r cu
stom
ers
sinc
e ow
ners
hip
data
is e
asy
to a
dd p
ost-p
urch
ase.
Man
ufac
turin
g in
Brit
ain
has
stab
ilised
afte
r the
rock
y ro
ad
to
enha
ncin
g its
pr
oces
ses
for
sust
aina
bilit
y an
d re
-po
sitio
ning
to
ca
ptur
e th
e le
ad
in t
he b
iona
no/d
esig
n m
arke
ts.
With
the
loo
min
g th
reat
of
carb
on r
atio
ning
, co
mpa
nies
kee
p an
eye
on
trans
port
mile
s as
soci
ated
w
ith t
heir
prod
ucts
. Th
is h
as r
educ
ed o
ffsho
ring
and
enco
urag
ed l
ocal
man
ufac
turin
g an
d de
liver
y of
goo
ds.
As a
res
ult,
UK
agr
icul
ture
is e
xper
ienc
ing
som
ethi
ng o
f a
rena
issa
nce.
Con
sum
e: h
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
–
how
do
we
acqu
ire a
nd u
se th
em?
Envi
ronm
enta
l val
ues
have
put
pai
d to
‘sho
p ‘ti
ll yo
u dr
op’;
inst
ead
we
have
a g
ener
atio
n of
‘m
od y
our
bod’
cyb
er-
triba
ls.
They
gre
w u
p th
inki
ng ta
ttoos
and
pie
rcin
gs w
ere
chic
. Th
e fa
ct th
at th
e ta
ttoos
now
con
tain
dig
ital i
nk, a
nd
the
nave
l rin
gs s
port
wifi
RFI
D c
hips
, is
sim
ply
a bo
nus.
Th
e ne
wes
t ge
nera
tion
is
extre
mel
y co
mfo
rtabl
e w
ith
augm
enta
tion,
whe
ther
cog
nitiv
e au
gmen
tatio
n vi
a sm
art
softw
are,
met
abol
ic a
nd s
ynap
tic a
ugm
enta
tion
via
HPE
dr
ugs,
or
ph
ysic
al
augm
enta
tion
via
embe
dded
m
icro
proc
esso
rs a
nd b
ioni
cs.
And
it’s
not j
ust t
he y
oung
-m
ore
seni
ors
are
augm
entin
g as
wel
l. Bi
onic
s –
tech
nolo
gica
l aug
men
tatio
n –
redu
ce
phys
ical
fra
ilty,
or
the
perc
eptio
n of
per
sona
l ph
ysic
al
frailt
y.
Sim
ilarly
, au
gmen
ted
cogn
ition
via
sof
twar
e or
H
PE d
rugs
red
uces
men
tal f
railt
y.
Both
ena
ble
exte
nded
in
depe
nden
ce.
One
w
ag
refe
rred
to
th
e gr
owin
g co
mm
unity
of
augm
ente
d O
APs
as ‘
high
-tech
wrin
klie
s’.
Whi
le h
umor
ists
joke
abo
ut w
ind-
pow
ered
zim
mer
fram
es,
pros
thet
ic m
anuf
actu
rers
hav
e be
gun
to m
arke
t hyd
roge
n-fu
el-c
ell-p
ower
ed
exos
kele
tons
in
stea
d.
They
as
sist
m
ovem
ent
in a
wid
er r
ange
of
circ
umst
ance
s th
an,
say,
Se
gway
s –
whi
ch h
ave
also
bec
ome
popu
lar
with
the
se
nior
set
now
that
the
pric
e ha
s dr
oppe
d.
Con
sum
ers
have
do
wns
hifte
d.
Hyp
erco
nsum
ptio
n of
go
ods
is n
o lo
nger
pop
ular
; it i
s ne
arly
con
side
red
a vi
ce.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
54
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
Wha
t pe
ople
do
cons
ume
avid
ly i
s ex
perie
nce,
whe
ther
ac
tual
or
virtu
al;
thei
r ow
n or
oth
er
peop
le’s
; as
liv
e ev
ents
, in
tera
ctiv
e ga
mes
, or
as
ex
pres
sed
in
blog
s,
podc
asts
, or
oth
er m
edia
. Ex
perie
nce
addi
cts
and
the
adre
nalin
ju
nkie
s ar
e co
nsta
ntly
lo
okin
g fo
r ne
w
com
bina
tions
of
ex
trem
e sp
orts
or
ga
mes
, an
d en
terta
inin
g co
mbi
natio
ns o
f sp
orts
and
pee
r-pr
oduc
ed
ente
rtain
men
t. R
isks
are
mad
e ex
plic
it, a
nd re
lativ
e co
sts
for
vary
ing
risks
are
a t
rans
pare
nt c
hoic
e:
“Jam
es g
ot
quot
es t
o re
pair
his
gutte
r: £5
00 w
ith s
caffo
ldin
g, £
50 if
he
hol
ds th
e la
dder
for
the
wor
kman
and
gam
bles
on
the
liabi
lity.
”
Low
erin
g yo
ur e
colo
gica
l foo
tprin
t is
the
new
way
to
get
ahea
d of
the
Jon
eses
. Th
e ef
fect
on
the
UK
lei
sure
in
dust
ry h
as b
een
skyr
ocke
ting
inte
rest
in
the
‘Dev
on
Riv
iera
’ as
wel
l as
red
isco
very
of
othe
r je
wel
s of
the
Br
itish
nat
ural
env
ironm
ent.xi
i
Focu
s on
the
Cha
ngin
g W
orkp
lace
Wor
kers
no
long
er f
ace
a si
mpl
e bl
urrin
g be
twee
n th
e w
orkp
lace
and
the
hom
e.
Wre
stlin
g w
ith t
he c
halle
nges
th
at t
hat
pres
ents
to
your
wor
k/lif
e ba
lanc
e is
rel
ativ
ely
stra
ight
forw
ard.
In
stea
d, t
he i
mm
ersi
ve c
ompu
ting
and
med
ia m
esh
thro
ugh
whi
ch e
very
one
now
mov
es h
as
crea
ted
a bl
urrin
g be
twee
n th
e w
orkp
lace
and
eve
ryw
here
–
and
ever
ythi
ng –
els
e. M
obile
pho
nes
are
embe
dded
in
sung
lass
es,
so v
ideo
conf
eren
ces
can
find
you
in D
evon
.
Wor
se,
an a
ge o
f ‘p
eer
prod
uctio
n’ m
eans
peo
ple
wor
k ev
en a
s co
nsum
ers.
The
emph
asis
on
lo
cal
man
ufac
turin
g an
d sh
ort-h
aul
deliv
ery
drov
e m
ost
com
pani
es
to
dece
ntra
lise
thei
r of
fices
. Sm
art
softw
are
puts
res
ourc
es w
here
the
y ar
e ne
eded
with
min
imal
mile
s tra
velle
d.
The
sam
e so
ftwar
e he
lps
empl
oyee
s co
oper
ate
to
redu
ce
reso
urce
co
nsum
ptio
n in
bot
h w
ork
and
leis
ure.
W
hile
offi
ces
are
smal
ler
and
loca
l, th
ey a
re c
onsi
sten
t in
the
ir de
sign
, am
eniti
es,
and
oper
atio
ns,
enab
ling
cons
iste
nt r
egul
ator
y co
mpl
ianc
e ac
ross
a c
ompa
ny’s
est
ablis
hmen
ts.xi
ii
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y Is
sues
Peop
le th
ink
diffe
rent
ly a
bout
risk
and
saf
ety
now
, in
wha
t an
alys
ts c
all
“a r
etur
n to
a m
ore
ratio
nal
view
. ” It
is a
w
orld
aw
ay fr
om t
he le
gal m
icro
man
agem
ent o
f per
sona
l ris
k th
at
so
char
acte
rised
co
ncer
ns
abou
t th
e ‘c
ompe
nsat
ion
cultu
re’ a
doz
en y
ears
bef
ore.
Mor
e fu
nds
and
time
are
now
inve
sted
in in
form
ing
the
publ
ic a
bout
th
e po
tent
ial
risks
, co
sts,
an
d be
nefit
s of
ne
w
tech
nolo
gies
, pro
duct
s an
d se
rvic
es.
The
effo
rts o
f pub
lic
agen
cies
and
oth
ers
over
the
pas
t de
cade
on
man
agin
g ris
k ha
ve p
aid
off.
Of c
ours
e, w
ith te
chno
logy
dev
elop
ing
at it
s cu
rren
t pac
e th
is p
ublic
vie
w c
an’t
be a
ssum
ed to
be
fore
ver
last
ing.
It
coul
d in
tim
e sw
ing
back
to th
e ba
d ol
d da
ys.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
55
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
A s
impl
ified
reg
ulat
ory
stru
ctur
e re
quire
s gr
eate
r pe
rson
al
judg
emen
t. R
elyi
ng o
n in
form
ed c
hoic
e to
nav
igat
e he
alth
an
d sa
fety
ris
ks r
equi
res
mor
e tra
nspa
rent
info
rmat
ion
of
regu
lato
ry s
truct
ures
as
wel
l as
ris
ks.
Stre
amlin
ing
the
heal
th a
nd s
afet
y re
gula
tory
stru
ctur
e op
ened
spa
ce f
or
mor
e fle
xibl
e re
spon
ses
to h
ealth
and
saf
ety
issu
es a
nd
mad
e it
easi
er t
o ac
hiev
e co
nsis
tenc
y w
ith i
nter
natio
nal
heal
th a
nd s
afet
y re
gula
tions
bey
ond
the
EU.
As a
resu
lt,
over
seas
con
tract
pos
sibi
litie
s ha
ve b
loss
omed
for
the
H
SE a
s an
exp
ert r
esou
rce.
The
last
ten
year
s ha
ve s
ee a
pro
lifer
atio
n of
hea
lth a
nd
safe
ty c
onsu
ltant
s w
ith e
xper
tise
in d
iffer
ent
sect
ors
-ha
rdly
su
rpris
ing,
gi
ven
wha
t se
ems
like
the
alm
ost
wee
kly
emer
genc
e of
new
are
as o
f pr
oduc
tion.
It’s
a
scie
ntifi
c an
d te
chno
logi
cal
conv
eyor
bel
t of
inn
ovat
ion
and
the
chal
leng
e no
w is
for
publ
ic a
genc
ies,
con
sulta
nts
and
othe
rs to
agr
ee w
hat t
he ri
sks
actu
ally
are
, how
thes
e ris
ks s
houl
d be
man
aged
and
fin
ally
, ho
w t
he r
esul
tant
m
essa
ges
shou
ld b
e co
mm
unic
ated
. To
com
poun
d th
e pr
oble
m,
the
varie
ty o
f so
ftwar
e an
d ha
rdw
are
syst
ems
now
m
arke
ted
to
assi
st
both
bu
sine
sses
an
d pr
ivat
e in
divi
dual
s in
man
agin
g he
alth
and
saf
ety
seem
s to
be
grow
ing
expo
nent
ially
. If
hist
oric
al b
usin
ess
patte
rns
hold
, ho
wev
er, t
he 2
020s
sho
uld
see
a co
nsol
idat
ion
of s
mal
ler
H&S
har
dwar
e an
d so
ftwar
e fir
ms
and
a ra
tiona
lisat
ion
of
that
mar
ket.
Win
ners
and
Los
ers
Win
ners
abo
und
– or
so
it w
ould
see
m.
New
life
styl
e pr
oduc
ts a
nd s
ervi
ces
have
rev
olut
ioni
sed
leis
ure
furth
er
from
eve
n th
e he
ady
days
of 2
007
and
Play
Stat
ion
3, a
nd
huge
ste
ps f
orw
ard
in h
ealth
bio
scie
nces
har
dwar
e an
d so
ftwar
e ha
ve m
ade
heal
thy,
act
ive
agei
ng th
e no
rm.
Empl
oym
ent i
s at
an
all-t
ime
high
, esp
ecia
lly e
mpl
oym
ent
of p
revi
ousl
y m
argi
nalis
ed w
orke
rs li
ke th
e el
derly
and
the
diffe
rent
ly a
bled
. M
ore
econ
omic
cen
tres
exis
t, an
d th
ey
are
mor
e w
idel
y di
strib
uted
thr
ough
out
the
coun
try.
The
envi
ronm
ent
itsel
f is
bo
th
bene
fitin
g fro
m
incr
ease
d ac
coun
tabi
lity,
and
ret
urni
ng t
hose
ben
efits
; w
ith t
he
incr
ease
in ‘l
ow-c
arbo
n-co
st a
t-hom
e ho
liday
s’, P
rest
on b
y th
e Se
a an
d th
e ‘D
evon
R
ivie
ra’
exem
plify
th
e re
vita
lisat
ion
of th
e Br
itish
sea
side
tow
n –
even
whi
le th
e ris
k ris
es o
f cl
imat
e-ch
ange
-inte
nsifi
ed s
torm
s an
d st
orm
su
rge.
The
lose
rs a
re in
sura
nce
com
pani
es w
ho s
ee c
usto
mer
s op
ting
for l
ower
leve
ls o
f cov
erag
e. T
he in
crea
sed
unde
rsta
ndin
g of
rela
tive
risk
mak
es p
eopl
e le
ss li
tigio
us.
With
mor
e fo
od g
row
n at
hom
e an
d a
grea
ter e
mph
asis
on
‘buy
ing
Briti
sh’ t
o co
nser
ve tr
ansp
ort f
uel u
se a
nd it
s ca
rbon
cos
t, im
port/
expo
rt co
mpa
nies
are
als
o un
der
pres
sure
. Th
e le
ss w
ell e
duca
ted
also
lose
, as
they
are
le
ss a
ble
to n
avig
ate
the
land
scap
e of
info
rmed
cho
ice.
Im
mig
rant
s su
ffer a
sim
ilar p
robl
em fo
r a d
iffer
ent r
easo
n;
diffe
rent
cul
tura
l filt
ers
may
mak
e it
diffi
cult
for t
hem
to
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
56
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
asse
ss ri
sks
adeq
uate
ly in
the
Briti
sh e
nviro
nmen
t. of
tran
shum
anis
m a
nd w
ant t
o re
ject
it m
ay w
ell f
ind
Fina
lly, p
eopl
e w
ho a
re u
nner
ved
by th
e em
ergi
ng fu
ture
th
emse
lves
mar
gina
lised
.
Ref
eren
ces
and
Res
ourc
es:
Fore
sigh
t and
sce
nario
s re
sour
ces
whi
ch o
ffer c
onfir
min
g ev
iden
ce a
nd in
sigh
ts fo
r the
HSE
sce
nario
s:
•ES
RC
Soc
iety
Tod
ay, “
Cha
ngin
g O
ur B
ehav
iour
, Not
the
Clim
ate”
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.e
src.
ac.u
k/E
SRC
Info
Cen
tre/a
bout
/CI/C
P/O
ur_S
ocie
ty_T
oday
/Spo
tligh
ts_2
006/
chan
ge1.
aspx
?Com
pone
ntId
=157
78&
Sour
cePa
geId
=157
97
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. •
Inst
itute
of t
he F
utur
e M
ap o
f the
Dec
ade
(200
3, 2
004,
200
5), a
vaila
ble
at:
o
2003
--ht
tp://
ww
w.if
tf.or
g/do
cs/S
R-7
97_M
ap_o
f_de
cade
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. o
20
04 --
http
://w
ww
.iftf.
org/
docs
/SR
-844
_200
4_M
ap_o
f_th
e_D
ecad
e.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
. o
20
05 --
http
://w
ww
.iftf.
org/
docs
/SR
-910
_200
5_M
OTD
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. •
Offi
ce o
f Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy,
“For
esig
ht:
Dru
gs F
utur
es 2
025?
The
Sce
nario
s, ” a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.fore
sigh
t.gov
.uk/
Brai
n_Sc
ienc
e_A
ddic
tion_
and_
Dru
gs/R
epor
ts_a
nd_P
ublic
atio
ns/D
rugs
Futu
res2
025/
DTI
-Sce
nario
s.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
. •
Ora
nge
Futu
re E
nter
pris
e C
oalit
ion,
“Sce
nario
s of
Wor
k an
d Te
chno
logy
in 2
016,
” ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.o
rang
ecoa
litio
n.co
m/a
pp/w
ebro
ot/fi
les/
whi
tepa
pers
/Ora
nge_
scen
ario
s_of
_wor
k_an
d_te
chno
logy
_201
6.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber
2006
). •
Taki
ng S
tock
, “Fu
ture
s Sc
enar
ios”
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.ta
king
stoc
k.or
g/Fu
ture
s.as
p (a
cces
sed
15 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6).
•Th
e W
orkp
lace
Inte
lligen
ce U
nit /
DTI
, “Th
e Fu
ture
of W
ork”
sce
nario
s, a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.wor
kpla
cein
telli
genc
e.co
.uk/
uplo
ads/
files
/dti_
futu
re_o
f_w
ork.
pdf (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
i This
org
anis
atio
nal s
chem
e is
ada
pted
from
Glo
bal F
ores
ight
Ass
ocia
tes’
“Eth
noFu
ture
s Sc
anni
ng F
ram
ewor
k, ” d
evis
ed b
y M
iche
lle B
owm
an a
nd K
aipo
Lu
m.
Mic
helle
Bow
man
and
Wen
dy S
chul
tz, “
Best
Pra
ctic
es in
Env
ironm
enta
l Sca
nnin
g: T
he W
orld
Bey
ond
Stee
p, ” p
rese
ntat
ion
at th
e W
orld
Fut
ure
Soci
ety,
Chi
cago
, 30
July
200
5.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: Th
e D
igita
l Ros
e G
arde
n
57
ii S
now
boar
ding
and
bas
e ju
mpi
ng h
ave
beco
me
fam
iliar
; fre
e ru
nnin
g an
d its
pre
dece
ssor
, par
kour
, are
rela
ted
activ
ities
mix
ing
runn
ing
and
acro
batic
s as
a
mea
ns to
trav
erse
an
urba
n la
ndsc
ape;
zor
bing
invo
lves
rollin
g do
wn
land
scap
es e
ncas
ed in
a la
rge
plas
tic b
all (
thin
k hu
man
-siz
ed g
erbi
l pla
ybal
l).
Info
rmat
ion
and
links
on
all t
hree
are
ava
ilabl
e at
Wik
iped
ia; s
ee:
•Pa
rkou
r: ht
tp://
en.w
ikip
edia
.org
/wik
i/Par
kour
(acc
esse
d 22
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
; •
Free
runn
ing:
http
://en
.wik
iped
ia.o
rg/w
iki/F
ree_
runn
ing
(acc
esse
d 22
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
--se
e al
so C
hann
el F
our’s
“Jum
p Lo
ndon
” pag
e at
:ht
tp://
ww
w.c
hann
el4.
com
/ent
erta
inm
ent/t
v/m
icro
site
s/J/
jum
p_lo
ndon
/ (ac
cess
ed 2
2 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
.•
Zorb
ing:
http
://en
.wik
iped
ia.o
rg/w
iki/Z
orbi
ng (a
cces
sed
22 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6).
iii In
form
atio
n on
inno
vativ
e pr
osth
etic
feet
is a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.spe
ctru
m.ie
ee.o
rg/p
rint/2
189
(acc
esse
d 22
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
; inf
orm
atio
n on
Po
wer
iser
s is
ava
ilabl
e at
: http
://en
g.po
wer
iser
.co.
kr/c
ompa
ny/p
refa
ce.h
tml (
acce
ssed
22
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
iv Fo
r exa
mpl
e, s
ee th
e st
eadi
ly ri
sing
pop
ular
ity o
f Wen
dy M
ogel
’s b
ook,
The
Ble
ssin
gs o
f a S
kinn
ed K
nee:
Usi
ng J
ewis
h Te
achi
ngs
to R
aise
Sel
f-Rel
iant
C
hild
ren
(Pen
guin
, 30
Oct
ober
200
1).
Rel
ated
arti
cle
in th
e N
ew Y
ork
Tim
es, S
unda
y 1
Oct
ober
200
6, a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.nyt
imes
.com
/200
6/10
/01/
mag
azin
e/01
pare
ntin
g.ht
ml?
th=&
adxn
nl=1
&em
c=th
&adx
nnlx
=115
9697
045-
+uX
joT2
mm
l//fq
Iz0V
z6zQ
(acc
esse
d 1
Oct
ober
200
6).
v S
ee in
form
atio
n av
aila
ble
at: h
ttp://
ww
w.k
evin
war
wic
k.or
g/ (a
cces
sed
22 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6).
vi Zi
llow
is o
ne e
xam
ple,
com
bini
ng G
oogl
e Ea
rth w
ith lo
cal r
eal e
stat
e ta
x ap
prai
sal d
atab
ases
to c
reat
e an
inte
ract
ive,
onl
ine
map
ping
of n
eigh
borh
ood
hous
e va
lues
as
an a
id to
sel
lers
del
iber
atin
g on
feas
ible
hou
se p
rices
. Zi
llow
can
be
expe
rienc
ed a
t: ht
tp://
ww
w.z
illow
.com
/ (ac
cess
ed 2
2 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
. vi
i See
the
Busi
ness
Wee
k ar
ticle
on
Seco
nd L
ife, a
nd re
late
d m
ater
ial,
here
: http
://w
ww
.bus
ines
swee
k.co
m/m
agaz
ine/
cont
ent/0
6_18
/b39
8200
1.ht
m
(acc
esse
d 22
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. vi
ii Fo
uts,
Jos
hua
S. “
Publ
ic D
iplo
mac
y an
d N
atio
nal I
mag
es:
Theo
ry a
nd P
ract
ice,
” in
Publ
ic D
iplo
mac
y an
d th
e Ko
rea
Foun
datio
n: P
ast,
Pres
ent,
and
Futu
re, p
roce
edin
gs o
f the
Con
fere
nce
to C
omm
emor
ate
the
15th
Anni
vers
ary
of th
e K
orea
Fou
ndat
ion,
Sep
tem
ber 2
006;
pag
es 2
9-32
. ix
Ben
yus,
Jan
ine.
Bio
mim
icry
: In
nova
tion
Insp
ired
by N
atur
e. H
arpe
r Per
enni
al, 1
Sep
tem
ber 2
002.
x
See
And
erso
n, C
hris
, “Pe
ople
pow
er, ”
in W
IRED
Issu
e 14
.07,
Jul
y 20
06, a
vaila
ble
at: h
ttp://
ww
w.w
ired.
com
/wire
d/ar
chiv
e/14
.07/
peop
le.h
tml (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
xi O
ffice
of S
cien
ce a
nd T
echn
olog
y, “F
ores
ight
: D
rugs
Fut
ures
202
5? T
he S
cena
rios,
” sce
nario
4:
Hig
h P
erfo
rman
ce, p
.11.
xi
i The
Wor
kpla
ce In
telli
genc
e U
nit/D
TI, “
The
Futu
re o
f Wor
k” s
cena
rios,
“Goo
d In
tent
ions
” sce
nario
, pp.
19-
23.
xiii
Ibid
.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
HSE
Sce
nario
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
Intr
oduc
tion:
Sc
enar
io C
ross
Th
is s
cena
rio is
one
of a
set
of f
our c
ompr
isin
g H
SE
’s S
cena
rios
for t
he F
utur
e of
P
erso
nal r
espo
nsib
ility
, pro
-act
ive
adop
tion
of te
chno
logy
, H
ealth
and
Saf
ety
in 2
017.
The
sce
nario
s re
sulte
d fro
m d
iscu
ssio
ns a
nd g
roup
wor
k m
anag
emen
t of r
isk,
abi
lity
to a
bsor
b im
pact
s of
con
flict
/war
and
du
ring
a sc
enar
io-b
uild
ing
wor
ksho
p (2
0-21
Jul
y 20
06) h
oste
d by
HS
E’s
Hor
izon
re
silie
nce
in th
e fa
ce o
f eco
nom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er s
hock
s
Sca
nnin
g te
am a
s pa
rt of
a w
ider
sce
nario
-pla
nnin
g pr
ojec
t. P
artic
ipan
ts p
riorit
ised
ch
ange
issu
es a
nd c
reat
ed th
e ‘s
cena
rio c
ross
’ to
the
right
that
pro
vide
d th
e lo
gica
l fra
mew
ork
for f
our s
cena
rios.
The
tim
e ho
rizon
targ
eted
was
201
7.
This
sce
nario
, ‘B
oom
and
Bla
me’
, is
driv
en b
y de
crea
sed
pers
onal
resp
onsi
bilit
y –
a ’b
lam
e cu
lture
’ – a
nd d
ecre
ased
risk
tole
ranc
e co
mbi
ned
with
incr
ease
d U
K
Dec
reas
ed U
K
com
petit
iven
ess
in th
e gl
obal
pol
itica
l eco
nom
y.
com
petit
iven
ess
Sce
nario
s ar
e no
t pre
dict
ions
of t
he fu
ture
-th
ey a
re v
ivid
sto
ries
abou
t pos
sibl
e fu
ture
s. T
hey
help
us
expl
ore
the
boun
darie
s of
unc
erta
inty
def
ined
by
spec
ified
Incr
ease
d U
K
com
petit
iven
ess,
ha
rmon
isat
ion
of
regu
latio
ns;
diffe
rent
ly a
bled
in
empl
oym
ent;
inco
rpor
atio
n of
m
igra
nts;
ente
rpris
e cu
lture
, ex
pect
atio
n of
w
ell-b
eing
and
so
cial
coh
esio
n
58
driv
ers
of c
hang
e. S
cena
rios
writ
ten
for i
nter
activ
e ex
erci
ses
are
typi
cally
brie
f, B
lam
e cu
lture
, res
ista
nce
to n
ew te
chno
logy
, rej
ectio
n of
risk
, de
pict
ed in
per
sona
l rat
her t
han
inst
itutio
nal a
necd
otes
, and
sal
ted
with
hum
our
shat
tere
d by
impa
cts
of c
onfli
ct/w
ar a
nd fr
agili
ty in
the
face
of
(laug
hter
aid
s im
pact
and
mem
ory)
. B
ut th
ese
are
best
bas
ed o
n re
sear
ch
econ
omic
/soc
ial/o
ther
sho
cks
scen
ario
s: l
onge
r nar
rativ
es, d
epic
ted
in b
road
er te
rms.
The
rese
arch
sce
nario
for
‘Boo
m a
nd B
lam
e’ b
egin
s w
ith a
brie
f ove
rvie
w o
f con
ditio
ns in
201
7 an
d th
e hi
stor
ical
cha
nges
whi
ch c
reat
ed th
em.
It th
en e
xplo
res
how
life
is d
iffer
ent i
n th
is
futu
re in
gre
ater
det
ail:i
•W
hat c
once
pts,
idea
s an
d pa
radi
gms
defin
e th
e w
orld
aro
und
us?
•H
ow d
o w
e re
late
to e
ach
othe
r – w
hat a
re th
e so
cial
stru
ctur
es a
nd
rela
tions
hips
that
link
peo
ple
and
orga
nisa
tions
? •
How
do
we
conn
ect w
ith e
ach
othe
r --w
hat t
echn
olog
ies
conn
ect p
eopl
e,
plac
es a
nd th
ings
? •
Wha
t are
the
proc
esse
s an
d te
chno
logi
es th
roug
h w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
an
d se
rvic
es?
•H
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow d
o w
e ac
quire
and
use
th
em?
The
scen
ario
fini
shes
by
focu
sing
on
the
chan
ging
wor
kpla
ce, a
nd c
hang
ed h
ealth
an
d sa
fety
issu
es.
Incr
ease
d U
K c
ompe
titiv
enes
s, h
arm
onis
atio
n of
re
gula
tions
; diff
eren
tly a
bled
in e
mpl
oym
ent;
inco
rpor
atio
n of
mig
rant
s; e
nter
pris
e cu
lture
, ex
pect
atio
n of
wel
l-bei
ng a
nd s
ocia
l coh
esio
n
Bla
me
cultu
re, r
esis
tanc
e to
new
te
chno
logy
, rej
ectio
n of
risk
, sh
atte
red
by im
pact
s of
co
nflic
t/war
and
frag
ility
in th
e fa
ce o
f eco
nom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er
Boo
m a
nd B
lam
e sh
ocks
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
59
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
‘Boo
m a
nd B
lam
e’
Ove
rvie
w
As t
he 2
0th ce
ntur
y en
ded,
ana
lyst
s w
rote
‘202
0’ f
orec
asts
, sc
enar
ios,
and
vis
ions
– fo
r ci
ties,
pro
vinc
es, a
nd c
ount
ries;
fo
r com
pani
es, a
genc
ies,
and
ent
ire s
ecto
rs; a
nd fo
r spe
cies
, ec
osys
tem
s, a
nd p
lane
tary
dyn
amic
s.
From
the
vant
age
of
2017
– w
ithin
hai
ling
dist
ance
of 2
020
–
The
glob
al e
cono
my
of 2
017
is a
dog
-eat
-dog
are
na.
In th
e U
K p
rivat
isat
ion
is u
p, a
nd th
e m
arke
t is
free.
Br
itain
has
a
hist
ory
of e
cono
mic
suc
cess
and
is r
elat
ivel
y st
rong
tod
ay,
but
how
sta
ble
is t
hat
stre
ngth
? Pe
ople
are
wor
ried
abou
t th
e fu
ture
. W
hat
com
poun
ds t
he w
orry
is
the
cost
to
the
envi
ronm
ent
of m
aint
aini
ng e
cono
mic
vita
lity.
R
emem
ber
sust
aina
bilit
y? I
t has
take
n a
back
sea
t to
aggr
essi
ve g
row
th
stra
tegi
es, a
mon
g th
em th
e lo
osen
ing
of e
nviro
nmen
tal a
nd
heal
th r
egul
atio
ns.
Com
pani
es a
re o
ffsho
ring
prod
uctio
n to
re
duce
cos
ts.
They
are
als
o of
fsho
ring
was
te t
o m
inim
ise
disp
osal
and
rem
edia
tion
expe
nses
. W
hile
Brit
ish
inve
stor
s ar
e m
ovin
g ag
gres
sive
ly
into
em
ergi
ng
mar
kets
, fo
reig
n in
vest
ors
are
snat
chin
g up
vul
nera
ble
UK
com
pani
es.
Soci
ety
priz
es c
ompe
titio
n an
d as
serti
vene
ss.
Econ
omic
an
d so
cial
pre
ssur
es to
enh
ance
bus
ines
s pr
oduc
tivity
mea
n th
at b
usin
ess
owne
rs h
ave
a ve
sted
inte
rest
in th
e w
elln
ess
of
empl
oyee
s.
Com
pani
es
now
ge
netic
ally
pr
ofile
pr
ospe
ctiv
e em
ploy
ees
as a
mat
ter
of c
ours
e, a
nd p
rovi
de
subc
utan
eous
RFI
D w
elln
ess/
envi
ronm
ent s
enso
rs to
ass
ist
empl
oyee
s in
mai
ntai
ning
pea
k he
alth
and
pea
k pr
oduc
tivity
. Th
e ec
onom
ic v
alue
of p
rovi
ng ‘c
lean
gen
es’ h
as p
rodu
ced
a ne
w e
xten
ded
fam
ily a
s a
knoc
k-on
effe
ct; g
enea
logy
has
beco
me
popu
lar,
and
rela
tives
who
fin
d ea
ch o
ther
usi
ng
onlin
e ge
neal
ogy
softw
are
ofte
n m
eet
to d
iscu
ss m
edic
al
hist
orie
s an
d st
ay to
soc
ialis
e.
The
publ
ic m
ood
is in
crea
sing
ly la
isse
z-fa
ire.
Gov
ernm
ent i
s ex
pect
ed to
be
less
intru
sive
in th
e bu
sine
ss s
ecto
r and
less
in
trusi
ve in
priv
ate
lives
. Th
e co
rolla
ry is
ero
sion
of
soci
al
safe
ty n
ets.
In
fluen
tial
com
men
tato
rs a
re f
ocus
ing
in o
n w
hat
they
see
as
an e
ver-p
olar
ised
soc
iety
, w
ith p
rivile
ged
encl
aves
and
ghe
ttois
ed c
omm
uniti
es.
But
the
tide
of
com
mun
itaria
nism
, lo
ng i
n eb
b, s
eem
s to
be
risin
g; m
ore
vote
rs a
re v
oici
ng d
issa
tisfa
ctio
n w
ith r
isin
g cr
ime
and
the
grow
ing
indi
gent
pop
ulat
ion.
Rec
ent H
isto
ry (2
007
– 20
17)
2009
: Tr
ust
betw
een
econ
omic
par
tner
s be
gins
to
unra
vel
as s
ever
al E
U m
embe
r st
ates
opt
for
‘as
soci
ate
mem
ber’
stat
us; t
he e
xtra
pre
ssur
es o
n th
e Eu
ro s
ee th
e Br
itish
pou
nd
soar
. C
heap
hol
iday
s ar
e of
fset
by
ever
-loud
er r
oars
fro
m
the
beas
t of
inf
latio
n, s
till
cage
d bu
t ra
ttlin
g th
e ba
rs w
ith
ever
incr
easi
ng v
igou
r.
2011
: O
n 22
Nov
embe
r 20
11,
the
ban
on u
sing
gen
etic
in
form
atio
n ex
pire
d,
and
insu
rers
co
mpe
ted
fierc
ely
for
owne
rshi
p of
gen
etic
dat
abas
es.
Acce
ss to
gen
etic
pro
files
of
ins
uran
ce c
usto
mer
s ra
dica
lly c
hang
ed t
he i
nsur
ance
m
odel
; in
sura
nce
beca
me
muc
h ch
eape
r fo
r so
me,
mor
e ex
pens
ive
for m
ost,
and
unob
tain
able
for t
he fe
w.ii
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
60
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
2013
: Th
e er
osio
n of
mul
ti-la
tera
lism
con
tinue
d in
the
early
pa
rt of
th
is
deca
de
as
som
e EU
m
embe
rs
opte
d fo
r m
embe
rshi
p of
the
Nor
th A
mer
ican
Fre
e Tr
ade
Agre
emen
t. C
oope
ratio
n de
finite
ly lo
st o
ut t
o co
mpe
titio
n in
tern
atio
nally
as
th
e em
ergi
ng
econ
omie
s sc
ram
bled
fo
r ev
er-s
carc
er
reso
urce
s ag
ains
t the
est
ablis
hed
econ
omie
s.
This
com
petit
ion
for
reso
urce
s im
pact
ed o
n al
l. Th
e ‘w
ater
ta
x’ w
as a
pplie
d to
thos
e w
ithou
t wat
er m
eter
s.
New
dut
ies
on c
ars
fuel
led
by s
olel
y by
pet
rol w
ere
intro
duce
d. A
nd c
ar
tax
was
fix
ed a
ccor
ding
to
both
mile
s tra
velle
d an
d tim
e of
tra
vel.
Hitc
h-hi
kers
reap
pear
ed a
t Brit
ain’
s sl
ip ro
ads.
Man
y ris
ked
stop
ping
to g
ive
them
a li
ft -
the
expe
ctat
ion
was
that
th
ey w
ould
con
tribu
te to
the
cost
of f
uel;
it w
asn’
t unc
omm
on
to p
ick
up s
omeo
ne e
n ro
ute
to a
bus
ines
s m
eetin
g.
The
skills
of
ha
cker
s an
d cy
ber-a
ttack
ers
reac
hed
new
he
ight
s. A
con
sorti
um a
nnou
nced
milli
ons
in c
ash
priz
es fo
r an
yone
abl
e to
dev
ise
a fo
olpr
oof m
eans
to ‘t
rack
the
hack
’ fo
llow
ing
the
‘FTS
E 1
00 B
lack
out’
of 2
1 Ju
ly 2
013.
Th
is c
ut
elec
trici
ty
to
the
UK’
s to
p 10
0 co
mpa
nies
, st
oppi
ng
prod
uctio
n lin
es
and
over
heat
ing
insu
ffici
ently
ai
r-co
nditi
oned
ser
ver
farm
s, w
ith k
nock
-on
impa
cts
on o
ver
1,00
0 su
bsid
iary
firm
s.
2015
: A
co
nsor
tium
of
U
K
com
pani
es
spon
sore
d th
e ‘W
orke
r W
elln
ess
Hea
dsta
rt’ p
rogr
amm
e, o
fferin
g fin
anci
al
ince
ntiv
es
for
pare
nts
in
thei
r em
ploy
to
ha
ve
babi
es
gene
tical
ly p
rofil
ed a
t birt
h. S
ocia
l ana
lyst
s co
mm
ente
d th
at
this
mig
ht c
reat
e a
‘new
aris
tocr
acy’
of t
hose
fam
ilies
who
se
gene
tic e
valu
atio
ns in
dica
te c
onsi
sten
tly g
ood
heal
th.
In a
rel
ated
sto
ry,
the
sam
e co
nsor
tium
’s ‘W
orke
r W
elln
ess
Now
’ pro
gram
me
met
with
run
away
suc
cess
. Th
is in
itiat
ive
offe
red
an
info
rmat
ion
pack
an
d H
R
staf
f tra
inin
g fo
r co
mpa
nies
wis
hing
to im
plan
t em
ploy
ees
with
sub
cuta
neou
s R
FID
sen
sors
to
mon
itor
envi
ronm
enta
l st
ress
ors,
hea
lth,
and
prod
uctiv
ity.
Orig
inal
ly,
empl
oyee
s w
ere
offe
red
ince
ntiv
es fo
r ad
optin
g th
e im
plan
ts.
They
are
now
see
n as
lu
xury
ben
efits
; all
pers
onal
hea
lth te
chno
logi
es a
re v
alue
d.
2017
: In
ear
ly F
ebru
ary,
ove
r 1,
200
seni
or m
anag
ers
in
com
pani
es a
cros
s th
e U
K to
ok il
l. Th
e ‘E
xecu
tive
Epid
emic
’ w
as fi
nally
trac
ed to
infe
cted
RFI
D im
plan
ts.
In-D
epth
Exp
lora
tion
Def
ine:
wha
t con
cept
s, id
eas,
par
adig
ms,
and
val
ues
defin
e th
is w
orld
?
21st
Cen
tury
Brit
ain
has
unle
ashe
d th
e m
arke
t. C
ompe
titio
n is
the
prim
ary
valu
e, a
nd e
cono
mic
ape
x pr
edat
ors
are
wid
ely
adm
ired.
Pr
ivat
isat
ion
is
cons
ider
ed
the
mos
t ef
fect
ive
mod
el to
ach
ieve
org
anis
atio
nal e
ffici
enci
es.
Whe
n do
ne r
ight
, of
cou
rse;
it is
ack
now
ledg
ed t
hat
som
e of
the
20
th ce
ntur
y pr
ivat
isat
ion
expe
rimen
ts h
ad s
erio
us s
truct
ural
fla
ws.
In
2017
the
ide
al o
rgan
isat
ion
has
a le
an b
alan
ce
shee
t, an
d ex
tern
alis
es
cost
s as
an
ex
plic
it st
rate
gy.
Cor
pora
te s
ocia
l re
spon
sibi
lity
now
mea
ns h
ow m
uch
a bu
sine
ss h
as c
ontri
bute
d to
enr
ichi
ng th
e na
tion
as a
who
le,
its im
med
iate
env
irons
, and
its
stoc
khol
ders
.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
61
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
Peop
le d
o ac
know
ledg
e th
e re
al c
halle
nges
the
wor
ld fa
ces.
Th
e te
n st
raig
ht y
ears
of
incr
easi
ngly
war
m S
epte
mbe
rs
illust
rate
d th
e gr
owin
g im
pact
s of
clim
ate
chan
ge.
The
priv
ate
sect
or h
as s
impl
y co
nclu
ded
that
add
ress
ing
such
a
mas
sive
pro
blem
req
uire
s ge
nera
ting
inco
me
on a
mas
sive
sc
ale.
Fix
ing
big
prob
lem
s co
sts
big
mon
ey.
Con
sequ
ently
, m
aint
aini
ng th
e U
K’s
econ
omic
vita
lity
is a
prio
rity.
The
cont
radi
ctio
n bu
ilt i
nto
this
wor
ldvi
ew is
stil
l a
poin
t of
pu
blic
de
bate
; ke
epin
g co
sts
low
to
in
crea
se
prof
its
inev
itabl
y ge
nera
tes
a tra
gedy
of t
he c
omm
ons
that
am
plifi
es
the
envi
ronm
enta
l pro
blem
s pe
ople
are
gen
erat
ing
wea
lth to
so
lve.
Th
e ba
ckla
sh
has
enco
urag
ed
a m
ilitan
t en
viro
nmen
talis
t fift
h co
lum
n.
Soci
ety
valu
es e
duca
tion
mor
e th
an e
ver
– an
d co
mpe
titiv
e sp
orts
(fo
r th
e m
inds
et).
Both
are
see
n as
ess
entia
l to
m
aint
aini
ng B
ritai
n in
the
for
efro
nt o
f th
e w
orld
eco
nom
y.
Chr
onic
und
erin
vest
men
t in
educ
atio
n m
eans
that
ove
r 85
%
of la
rge
corp
orat
ions
offe
r no
t ju
st in
-hou
se tr
aini
ng,
but
in-
hous
e sc
hool
ing.
M
ost
of t
hese
cor
pora
tions
are
lob
byin
g th
e go
vern
men
t to
ren
ovat
e th
e na
tiona
l edu
catio
n sy
stem
: th
is is
not
a c
ost t
hey
wan
t to
bear
inde
finite
ly.
Con
cept
s of
equ
ality
hav
e sh
ifted
. Pe
ople
no
long
er t
alk
abou
t in
equa
lity
rela
ting
to
race
/dis
abilit
y/ag
e,
and
the
gend
er
bala
nce
has
now
sh
ifted
in
fa
vour
of
w
omen
. In
equa
lity
is p
rimar
ily d
ue t
o he
alth
/gen
etic
pre
disp
ositi
ons.
In
kee
ping
with
pub
lic e
xpec
tatio
ns,
the
Gov
ernm
ent
has
refu
sed
to le
gisl
ate
on th
is.
Attit
udes
tow
ards
imm
igra
tion
have
als
o ch
ange
d, a
s sk
illed
wor
kers
in th
e m
anuf
actu
ring
sect
or a
re fo
rced
to e
mig
rate
in
sear
ch o
f w
ork.
Im
mig
rant
s w
ith g
ood
heal
th p
rofil
es a
re
wel
com
ed.
Rel
ate:
ho
w d
o pe
ople
rel
ate
to e
ach
othe
r –
wha
t are
the
so
cial
st
ruct
ures
an
d re
latio
nshi
ps
that
lin
k pe
ople
an
d or
gani
satio
ns?
Gov
ernm
ent i
n 20
17 is
muc
h le
ss in
trusi
ve.
Whi
le g
ood
for
busi
ness
, th
at s
tanc
e is
bel
ieve
d to
gen
erat
e so
cial
cris
es.
Safe
ty n
ets
for
the
unem
ploy
ed a
nd u
nder
-em
ploy
ed,
the
elde
rly a
nd c
hild
ren
have
ero
ded
over
the
pas
t de
cade
. D
isco
nten
t is
ris
ing
over
the
ext
ent
to w
hich
thi
s cr
eate
s m
ini-h
uman
itaria
n di
sast
ers
in p
ocke
ts th
roug
hout
Brit
ain.
The
UK
has
sup
porte
d fre
e tra
de w
ithin
trad
e bl
ocks
and
EU
pr
otec
tioni
sm.
The
Euro
pean
Com
mis
sion
has
lost
muc
h of
its
pow
er.
The
way
forw
ard
for
the
‘new
Eur
ope’
of t
he p
ost
Wor
ld W
ar T
wo
year
s no
w s
eem
s ve
ry u
ncle
ar.
Glo
bally
, the
free
mar
ket c
ontin
ues
to th
row
spa
rks.
Peo
ple
caug
ht o
n th
e w
rong
sid
e of
the
glo
bal w
ealth
div
ide
have
m
oved
bey
ond
sim
mer
ing
rese
ntm
ent
to e
xplo
sive
ang
er
and
mat
chin
g m
ilitan
cy.
The
reso
urce
div
ide,
exe
mpl
ified
by
gl
obal
w
ater
sh
orta
ges,
ex
acer
bate
s th
is.
Stra
tegi
c al
lianc
es w
ith o
rgan
ised
cyb
er-c
rime
allo
w h
acke
rs to
cau
se
glob
al d
isru
ptio
n vi
a di
gita
l net
wor
ks.
Soci
ety
is m
ore
divi
ded.
Pr
izin
g co
mpe
titio
n le
gitim
ises
the
wea
lthy
and
recr
eate
s th
e Vi
ctor
ian
notio
n of
th
e ‘u
ndes
ervi
ng
poor
’. U
rban
ar
chite
ctur
e en
scrib
es
the
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
62
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
‘suc
cess
’ ga
p in
th
e fo
rtifie
d ga
rden
wal
ls
of
priv
ilege
d en
clav
es a
nd th
e bl
aste
d co
mm
ons
of th
e ne
w g
hetto
s.
Con
solid
atio
n of
th
e Br
itish
ec
onom
y ar
ound
tra
ditio
nal
know
ledg
e ec
onom
y an
d ex
perie
nce
econ
omy
sect
ors
– fin
ance
s, b
usin
ess
serv
ices
, tec
hnic
al e
xper
tise,
and
tour
ism
–
has
wid
ened
the
‘suc
cess
gap
’. M
anuf
actu
ring
jobs
are
di
sapp
earin
g an
d th
e jo
b m
arke
t in
crea
sing
ly
dem
ands
ad
vanc
ed e
duca
tion.
In
dust
rial
skills
hav
e lo
st v
alue
, an
d fis
cal
wiz
ardr
y,
stra
tegi
c re
sear
ch,
and
tech
nica
l un
ders
tand
ing
are
the
orde
r of
the
day.
Th
e la
bour
mar
ket
has
pola
rised
bet
wee
n hi
gh-le
vel
know
ledg
e jo
bs a
nd l
ow-
leve
l ser
vice
jobs
. Sk
illed
blue
-col
lar
wor
kers
are
look
ing
abro
ad
for
posi
tions
an
d Br
itain
is
lo
sing
la
bour
to
em
igra
tion.
Th
e in
crea
sed
empl
oym
ent
and
rete
ntio
n of
ol
der w
orke
rs h
as c
lose
d ou
t job
opp
ortu
nitie
s fo
r the
you
ng.
Soci
ety
is la
bour
rich
, but
incr
easi
ngly
ski
lls p
oor i
n ex
perti
se
criti
cal f
or th
e kn
owle
dge
econ
omy.
Girl
s co
ntin
ued
to o
utpe
rform
boy
s in
sch
ools
, an
d w
ith
grea
ter
acad
emic
ach
ieve
men
ts b
ecam
e m
ore
soug
ht a
fter
in th
e w
orkp
lace
. The
focu
s of
em
ploy
ers
on e
duca
tion
and
know
ledg
e le
ft m
any
youn
g m
en a
t a
disa
dvan
tage
in
the
jobs
mar
ket a
nd u
nem
ploy
men
t with
in th
is g
roup
has
rise
n.
Wom
en
also
co
ntin
ue
to
live
long
er
than
m
en.
In
an
econ
omy
relia
nt o
n ol
der
wor
kers
, thi
s m
eans
you
ng fe
mal
e w
orke
rs a
re r
epla
cing
em
ploy
ees
who
die
in p
ost,
resu
lting
in
bus
ines
ses
dom
inat
ed b
y w
omen
.
As
unem
ploy
men
t ro
se
amon
g yo
ung
men
, so
di
d re
sent
men
t, cr
ime
and
urba
n un
rest
cha
ract
eris
ed b
y a
burg
eoni
ng
gang
cu
lture
. Em
ploy
ers
are
incr
easi
ngly
re
luct
ant
to e
mpl
oy y
oung
men
who
se p
ostc
ode
reve
als
a ‘c
erta
in’
area
. Th
e go
vern
men
t ha
s pr
opos
ed c
ompu
lsor
y na
tiona
l ‘ga
p ye
ar’ s
ervi
ce a
s a
poss
ible
sol
utio
n.
Empl
oyer
s ge
netic
ally
pr
ofile
em
ploy
ees
as
a m
atte
r of
co
urse
. G
enea
logy
has
boo
med
as
a re
sult.
Fa
mili
es a
re
inve
stin
g tim
e an
d m
oney
in tr
acin
g al
l the
bra
nche
s of
thei
r fa
mily
tre
e.
Far-f
lung
rel
ativ
es m
eet
to m
ap t
heir
heal
th
prof
iles
and
soci
alis
e, r
evita
lisin
g th
e ex
tend
ed f
amily
for
ve
ry 2
1st ce
ntur
y re
ason
s.
Peop
le w
ho w
ant
child
ren
pay
mor
e at
tent
ion
to
DN
A
prof
iles
and
com
bina
toric
s in
ch
oosi
ng s
pous
es.
Glo
bal c
limat
e ch
ange
is v
isib
ly e
tche
d on
the
envi
ronm
ent.
Sum
mer
s ar
e w
arm
er a
nd l
onge
r, an
d he
at w
aves
mor
e co
mm
on.
Coa
sts
and
estu
arie
s su
ffer
from
mor
e, a
nd m
ore
extre
me,
sto
rms.
Fl
oodi
ng
patte
rns
have
cha
nged
and
re
draw
n th
e ris
k m
ap fo
r co
nstru
ctio
n.
Build
ing
regu
latio
ns
have
bee
n ad
just
ed a
s a
resu
lt.
Unf
ortu
nate
ly, m
ore
wat
er
from
sto
rms
ofte
n m
eans
les
s w
ater
to
drin
k as
sea
wat
er
intru
des
on w
ater
tabl
es.
Pollu
tion
leve
ls a
re a
lso
high
er in
th
e w
ake
of g
over
nmen
t der
egul
atio
n an
d lo
oser
con
trols
.
Con
nect
: ho
w
do
we
conn
ect
with
ea
ch
othe
r –
wha
t te
chno
logi
es c
onne
ct p
eopl
e, p
lace
s, a
nd th
ings
?
Com
petit
ion
in t
he 2
4/7/
365
econ
omy
requ
ires
ubiq
uito
us
com
putin
g.
The
perv
asiv
e, ‘
alw
ays
on’
tele
com
s/co
mpu
ter
net
crea
tes
an
imm
ersi
ve,
roun
d-th
e-cl
ock
wor
k en
viro
nmen
t. To
he
lp e
mpl
oyee
s m
anag
e st
ress
and
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
mai
ntai
n he
alth
in
th
is
turb
o-ch
arge
d at
mos
pher
e,
com
pani
es d
istri
bute
‘dig
ital b
urrs
’ – s
mal
l RFI
D s
enso
rs th
at
atta
ch t
o cl
othe
s, h
air,
or
equi
pmen
t to
mon
itor
heal
th,
envi
ronm
enta
l fa
ctor
s,
and
safe
ty.iii
They
co
nnec
t to
co
rpor
ate
HR
sy
stem
s,
insu
ranc
e da
taba
ses,
an
d w
hat
rem
ains
of
the
publ
ic A
&E r
espo
nse
infra
stru
ctur
e.
Larg
er
com
pani
es re
quire
sub
cuta
neou
s se
nsor
impl
ants
dur
ing
the
full
tenu
re o
f em
ploy
men
t.iv
The
mos
t pop
ular
soc
ial n
etw
orki
ng p
rogr
ams
of th
is d
ecad
e ar
e ge
neal
ogic
al s
earc
h-an
d-ch
at c
omm
uniti
es.
The
mos
t so
ught
-afte
r lu
xury
bus
ines
s so
ftwar
e is
a
digi
tal
clon
e,
whi
ch
stan
ds
betw
een
the
user
an
d th
is
high
-stre
ss
imm
ersi
ve
envi
ronm
ent,
filte
ring
data
-stre
ams
for
the
high
est-p
riorit
y in
put.
Ther
e ha
s be
en a
rev
ersa
l of
the
trend
to
live
far
from
the
w
orkp
lace
be
caus
e of
lo
nger
w
orki
ng
hour
s,
secu
rity
conc
erns
an
d fu
el
cost
s.
Tran
spor
t co
mpa
nies
de
liver
im
prov
emen
ts f
or
shor
t-dis
tanc
e tra
ins
(with
in t
he ‘
have
’ en
clav
es a
t le
ast).
Jou
rney
tim
es a
re d
rast
ical
ly c
ut a
nd
dela
ys fo
r com
mut
ers
beco
me
a th
ing
of th
e pa
st (p
eopl
e do
no
t wan
t to
was
te a
sec
ond
of th
eir t
ime)
.
edge
thr
ough
an
ever
-ligh
t re
gula
tory
touc
h; r
educ
ing
taxe
s on
fue
ls a
nd p
rivat
isin
g se
rvic
es.
Busi
ness
is c
ontri
butin
g to
o th
roug
h ta
king
up
the
slac
k to
tig
hten
the
skills
gap
; in-
hous
e tra
inin
g ha
s be
com
e in
-hou
se s
choo
ling;
ed
ucat
iona
l pr
ogra
ms
are
now
com
mon
in la
rge
busi
ness
es.
The
inte
nse
focu
s on
cy
ber-
secu
rity
has
hobb
led
open
so
urce
com
mun
ities
and
pee
r-pro
duce
d so
ftwar
e. ‘
Mas
h up
’ m
edia
are
all
but i
nter
dict
ed;
busi
ness
has
dem
ande
d m
uch
mor
e st
ringe
nt a
nd c
ompr
ehen
sive
pro
secu
tion
of d
ata
and
med
ia p
iracy
.
Whi
te g
oods
and
sm
all c
onsu
mer
goo
ds a
re im
porte
d. ‘M
ade
in th
e U
K’ n
ow a
pplie
s pr
imar
ily to
ser
vice
s an
d ep
hem
era.
En
terp
rises
are
lar
ger.
Succ
essf
ul s
mal
l co
mpa
nies
gro
w;
unsu
cces
sful
sm
all
com
pani
es
are
abso
rbed
by
la
rger
en
terp
rises
. Th
e tre
nd o
f ne
ighb
ourh
ood
‘mom
and
pop
’ st
oref
ront
s di
sapp
earin
g co
ntin
ued.
Lo
okin
g at
tou
rism
as
an e
xam
ple,
hot
el c
hain
s ar
e bu
ying
up
loca
l B&B
’s to
cre
ate
natio
nal
B&B
br
ands
. Th
ey
have
ho
mog
enis
ed
the
gues
thou
se e
xper
ienc
e in
ser
vice
to e
cono
mie
s of
sca
le a
nd
in a
id o
f ra
isin
g qu
ality
sta
ndar
ds.
Som
e sm
all e
nter
pris
es
achi
eve
effic
ienc
y w
hile
mai
ntai
ning
a u
niqu
e br
and
via
cons
ortia
agr
eem
ents
with
sim
ilar b
usin
esse
s.
Cre
ate:
wha
t ar
e th
e pr
oces
ses
and
tech
nolo
gies
thr
ough
w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
and
ser
vice
s?
Con
sum
e: h
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow
In g
loba
l te
rms,
the
UK
is
a fa
st a
dopt
er a
nd i
nnov
ator
. do
we
acqu
ire a
nd u
se th
em?
Busi
ness
is
bo
omin
g in
fin
ance
s,
busi
ness
se
rvic
es,
tech
nica
l exp
ertis
e, a
nd to
uris
m.
Fore
ign
owne
rshi
p am
ong
Hig
h st
reet
sho
ps a
re s
uffe
ring:
th
e em
ploy
ed h
ave
not
the
FTSE
10
0 co
mpa
nies
ha
s in
crea
sed
over
th
e la
st
enou
gh
time
to
shop
fo
r no
n-es
sent
ial
good
s,
and
the
deca
de.
The
gove
rnm
ent w
orks
to e
nhan
ce th
is c
ompe
titiv
e un
empl
oyed
not
eno
ugh
mon
ey.
In r
espo
nse,
mor
e an
d
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
63
64
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
mor
e re
taile
rs u
se t
heir
bric
k-an
d-m
orta
r sh
ops
as d
ispl
ays
for
mer
chan
dise
tha
t is
act
ually
sol
d on
line
‘“W
indo
w s
hop
and
then
sho
p on
Win
dow
s In
tern
et E
xplo
rer’)
. An
othe
r po
pula
r st
rate
gy i
s th
e ‘e
xpre
ss s
hop’
– s
tore
red
esig
ns
aim
ed a
t ten
-min
ute
turn
over
of c
usto
mer
s w
ith a
pur
chas
e.
Thes
e re
ly o
n da
taba
ses
with
cus
tom
er s
izes
, pr
efer
ence
s,
and
prev
ious
pur
chas
es in
terli
nked
with
fina
ncia
l dat
a. C
hip
read
ers
in d
oors
reco
gnis
e th
e cu
stom
er a
nd re
lay
thei
r dat
a to
the
near
est a
vaila
ble
sale
sper
son’
s da
tapa
d.
This
allo
ws
the
sale
s st
aff
to
link
cust
omer
re
ques
ts
to
avai
labl
e pr
efer
red
stoc
k in
sec
onds
. W
ith s
ize
(incl
udin
g he
ight
, w
eigh
t, an
d m
easu
rem
ents
)v al
read
y co
rrela
ted
to t
he it
em,
peop
le d
on’t
even
try
clot
hing
on
anym
ore.
vi
Ther
e ha
s be
en
grow
th
in
pers
onal
ph
ysic
al
secu
rity
serv
ices
to
o,
as a
re
sult
of
pola
risat
ion
of
soci
ety
and
incr
easi
ng m
ilitan
cy o
f the
‘hav
e-no
ts’.
Secu
rity
is n
o lo
nger
so
met
hing
tha
t th
e go
vern
men
t pr
ovid
es,
so t
he m
arke
t fo
r th
is i
s gr
owin
g (b
oth
in t
erm
s of
new
tec
hnol
ogie
s an
d se
curit
y gu
ards
). So
met
imes
thi
s is
pro
vide
d by
em
ploy
ers,
bu
t gen
eral
ly it
is s
omet
hing
that
indi
vidu
als
need
to p
rocu
re
for
them
selv
es. S
ervi
ces
are
acqu
ired
from
one
of t
he m
ajor
se
curit
y pr
ovid
ers,
who
ens
ure
qual
ity a
nd v
ettin
g of
sta
ff.
With
reg
ard
to e
nviro
nmen
talis
m a
nd re
sour
ce u
se, t
he a
nti-
carb
on l
obby
won
. Br
itain
has
bui
lt m
ore
nucl
ear
pow
er
plan
ts t
o as
sure
dom
estic
ele
ctric
al s
uppl
y. S
ubsi
dies
on
biof
uels
hav
e re
duce
d fu
el p
rices
, m
akin
g go
ods
trans
port
less
exp
ensi
ve.
Mor
e ca
rs a
re o
n th
e ro
ads,
alth
ough
man
y co
rpor
ate
wor
kers
use
pub
lic t
rans
port
beca
use
they
can
co
ntin
ue w
orki
ng o
n th
e w
ay in
or
out
of t
he o
ffice
. O
ther
pu
blic
env
ironm
enta
l in
itiat
ives
mus
t no
w o
pera
te i
n th
e
blac
k. C
omm
unity
recy
clin
g pr
ogra
ms
still
exis
t, bu
t are
now
ta
xed
to c
over
ope
ratin
g co
sts.
Focu
s on
the
Cha
ngin
g W
orkp
lace
Man
ufac
turin
g ha
s m
ostly
bee
n ou
tsou
rced
and
offs
hore
d.
The
wor
kpla
ce to
day
is th
e of
fice
mor
e th
an th
e fa
ctor
y flo
or.
This
con
side
rabl
y re
duce
s w
orrie
s ab
out
maj
or w
orkp
lace
ha
zard
s.
Whe
re b
usin
esse
s ha
ve c
onso
lidat
ed,
the
wor
k en
viro
nmen
ts a
re s
tand
ardi
sed
for
the
sake
of
effic
ienc
y of
su
pply
and
tra
inin
g.
But
shift
s ar
e lo
nger
; pr
essu
re t
o pr
oduc
e ke
eps
wor
kers
at t
heir
desk
s w
ell i
nto
the
even
ing.
At
first
co
rpor
ate
gene
tic
prof
iling
was
us
ed
to
iden
tify
wor
kers
par
ticul
arly
sen
sitiv
e to
che
mic
als
and
subs
tanc
es
used
in
inno
vativ
e m
ater
ials
pro
duct
ion.
Th
e in
crea
sing
so
phis
ticat
ion
of g
enom
ic a
naly
sis
allo
wed
com
pani
es t
o ev
alua
te c
andi
date
s’ f
it to
cor
pora
te c
ultu
re i
n te
rms
of
met
abol
ism
, per
sona
lity,
and
vul
nera
bilit
y to
stre
ss. G
enom
ic
eval
uatio
n ha
s cr
eate
d ne
w s
ocia
l ga
ps a
s sc
reen
ing
for
heal
th
and
long
evity
is
us
ed
for
insu
ranc
e,
pens
ion
sche
mes
, an
d be
nefit
s, a
ll ad
just
ed a
ccor
ding
to
peop
le’s
ex
pect
ed li
fesp
an.
Thes
e sc
reen
ing
prog
ram
s ar
e th
e fir
st s
tep
in c
orpo
rate
HR
su
ppor
t fo
r th
e us
e of
hum
an p
erfo
rman
ce e
nhan
cem
ent
drug
s an
d te
chno
logi
es b
y em
ploy
ees.
Com
pany
caf
es o
ffer
an a
rray
of s
anct
ione
d H
PE d
rugs
, an
d co
rpor
ate
train
ing
incl
udes
inst
ruct
ion
in th
eir
use.
It
also
incl
udes
inst
ruct
ion
in u
sing
RFI
D/n
ano
heal
th s
enso
rs t
o m
onito
r pr
oduc
tivity
, en
viro
nmen
tal
stre
ssor
s, m
etab
olis
m,
and
over
all
heal
th.
Mon
itorin
g an
d sc
reen
ing
empl
oyee
s’ b
ehav
iour
and
hea
lth
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
at
wor
k an
d at
ho
me
lets
th
e H
R
team
m
onito
r st
aff
prod
uctiv
ity.
It’s
all
abou
t ad
ditio
nal
com
petit
ive
edge
. (“
Mai
ntai
ning
pro
duct
ivity
is a
24/
7/36
5 en
deav
our!”
)
Cor
pora
tions
and
bus
ines
ses
are
cutti
ng b
ack
on w
orke
r am
eniti
es,
alth
ough
so
fa
r pr
oduc
tivity
co
ncer
ns
have
pr
eser
ved
heal
th-r
elat
ed p
erks
like
com
pany
fitn
ess
cent
res.
But i
ssue
s of
trus
t, pr
ivac
y, a
nd li
abilit
y ar
e st
ill rif
e, a
nd th
e tig
htes
t cor
pora
te c
yber
-sec
urity
can
be
foun
d fir
ewal
ling
the
HR
he
alth
se
nsor
ne
ts.
Initi
ally
em
ploy
ees
acce
pted
in
trusi
ve ‘
chip
ping
’ be
caus
e in
a b
uyer
s’ m
arke
t fo
r la
bour
th
ey h
ad li
ttle
choi
ce.
Of c
ours
e, th
ere
wer
e al
so e
cono
mic
in
cent
ives
in th
e fo
rm o
f red
uced
insu
ranc
e pr
emiu
ms
and
a hi
gher
sal
ary
scal
e.
Mos
t pe
ople
now
ack
now
ledg
e th
e ph
ysic
al b
enef
its.
The
sens
ors
do a
ctua
lly im
prov
e he
alth
mai
nten
ance
. Th
ey
are
desi
gned
to b
e pr
even
tativ
e, fo
cuse
d on
enh
anci
ng w
ell-
bein
g.
Pers
onal
sen
sors
hav
e be
com
e a
luxu
ry t
he ‘h
ave-
nots
’ w
ishe
d th
ey h
ad –
and
the
‘ha
ves’
wis
hed
they
had
co
ntro
l ove
r. Pe
ople
rel
y on
chi
ps t
o m
onito
r th
eir
heal
th,
whi
ch d
ista
nces
res
pons
ibilit
y fo
r he
alth
and
env
ironm
enta
l ris
ks fr
om in
divi
dual
s th
emse
lves
.
Life
has
los
t to
wor
k in
the
bat
tle f
or w
ork/
life
bala
nce.
Pe
rvas
ive
com
putin
g al
low
s w
ork
alm
ost
anyw
here
, bu
t co
rpor
ate
secu
rity
and
priv
acy
conc
erns
m
ean
mos
t em
ploy
ees
still
wor
k in
the
offic
e, w
here
gre
ater
sec
urity
can
be
ass
ured
. Th
is p
rodu
ces
stag
gere
d ru
sh h
our
traffi
c, a
nd
shift
s it
to a
ban
d be
twee
n 8
and
10 p
m.
Mor
e co
mpe
titio
n am
ong
com
pani
es
mea
ns
mor
e co
mpe
titio
n w
ithin
com
pani
es;
empl
oyee
s ba
ttle
for
high
er
payi
ng p
ositi
ons
and
suffe
r hig
her s
tress
as
a re
sult.
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y Is
sues
In F
TSE
100
com
pani
es, e
mpl
oyer
s vi
ew w
orke
r he
alth
and
fit
ness
as
a st
rate
gic
reso
urce
ens
urin
g hi
gh p
rodu
ctiv
ity.
Succ
essf
ul e
mpl
oyee
s gu
ard
thei
r he
alth
as
a re
sour
ce w
ith
conc
rete
sal
ary
impl
icat
ions
. Th
ese
pers
pect
ives
ren
der
gene
tic p
rofil
ing
and
subc
utan
eous
RFI
D h
ealth
sen
sors
no
n-co
ntro
vers
ial.
In f
ree
mar
ket
cond
ition
s, t
he in
sura
nce
indu
stry
driv
es h
ealth
and
saf
ety,
spu
rred
on
by l
itiga
tion.
C
onsu
mer
hea
lth i
ssue
s an
d pu
blic
saf
ety
are
as b
ig a
pr
iorit
y as
wor
kpla
ce s
afet
y.
The
conc
ept
of s
ensi
ble
risk
is n
ow f
orgo
tten.
With
gen
etic
pr
ofilin
g an
d th
e po
wer
of i
nsur
ance
com
pani
es, p
eopl
e an
d or
gani
satio
ns
are
seek
ing
mor
e an
d m
ore
cont
rol.
Ris
k as
sess
men
t is
repl
aced
by
risk
prev
entio
n, a
s th
e hi
gher
end
of
soc
iety
(i.e
. th
e ‘h
aves
’) de
man
ds a
ll ris
ks a
re s
tam
ped
out a
s so
on a
s th
ey m
ater
ialis
e.
Stre
ss
is
the
top
heal
th
issu
e am
ong
the
empl
oyed
. W
orse
ning
air
qual
ity c
oupl
ed w
ith s
tress
-dep
ress
ed im
mun
e sy
stem
s ha
s ca
used
a re
surg
ence
in re
spira
tory
infe
ctio
ns.
Obe
sity
is o
n th
e de
clin
e am
ong
the
‘hav
es’,
mor
e be
caus
e it
is
perc
eive
d as
un
prod
uctiv
e an
d un
com
petit
ive
than
sp
ecifi
cally
for
hea
lth r
easo
ns.
The
chro
nica
lly u
nder
-an
d un
empl
oyed
– w
hose
ran
ks c
urre
ntly
equ
al 2
0% o
f th
e
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
65
66
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
pote
ntia
l w
orkf
orce
– r
emai
n th
e ho
tspo
t of
the
lin
gerin
g ob
esity
epi
dem
ic.
Gro
wth
in
the
know
ledg
e ec
onom
y ha
s sh
ifted
the
foc
us
firm
ly in
the
dire
ctio
n of
hea
lth.
Stre
ss a
nd m
uscu
losk
elet
al
prob
lem
s ar
e th
e m
ain
focu
s.
But
empl
oyer
s us
e pr
even
tativ
e m
easu
res
(incl
udin
g ne
w
tech
nolo
gy)
in
conj
unct
ion
with
gen
etic
pro
filin
g, s
o on
ly t
hose
ind
icat
ing
inhe
rent
long
evity
and
goo
d he
alth
ben
efit.
Oth
er e
mpl
oyee
s su
fferin
g fro
m t
hese
pro
blem
s w
ill jo
in t
he e
ver-
incr
easi
ng
rank
s of
the
‘hav
e-no
ts’ a
s em
ploy
ers
do n
ot s
ee in
vest
men
t in
pre
vent
ion
as w
orth
whi
le.
Win
ners
and
Los
ers
In t
he c
ompe
titiv
e, p
rivat
ised
lan
dsca
pe o
f 20
17,
skille
d w
orke
rs a
nd fe
mal
e w
orke
rs h
ave
an a
dvan
tage
. Li
kew
ise,
ph
ysic
al
disa
bilit
y is
ov
erlo
oked
in
th
e ba
lanc
e w
ith
educ
atio
n, e
xper
tise,
and
ess
entia
l goo
d he
alth
, so
it is
a w
in
for
the
diffe
rent
ly a
bled
. H
ealth
care
pro
fess
iona
ls a
lso
win
, as
the
ir sa
larie
s in
crea
se,
alth
ough
com
petit
ion
for
wor
k is
st
iffer
– b
ut s
o it
is fo
r eve
ryon
e.
Gua
rant
eein
g co
nsis
tent
pro
duct
ivity
is k
ey.
Thus
long
-term
ill
heal
th –
phy
sica
l or m
enta
l – is
a s
igni
fican
t dis
adva
ntag
e in
the
empl
oym
ent m
arke
t.
Ref
eren
ces
and
Res
ourc
es:
Fore
sigh
t and
sce
nario
s re
sour
ces
whi
ch o
ffer c
onfir
min
g ev
iden
ce a
nd in
sigh
ts fo
r the
HSE
sce
nario
s:
•ES
RC
Soc
iety
Tod
ay, “
Cha
ngin
g O
ur B
ehav
iour
, Not
the
Clim
ate”
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.e
src.
ac.u
k/E
SRC
Info
Cen
tre/a
bout
/CI/C
P/O
ur_S
ocie
ty_T
oday
/Spo
tligh
ts_2
006/
chan
ge1.
aspx
?Com
pone
ntId
=157
78&
Sour
cePa
geId
=157
97
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. •
Inst
itute
of t
he F
utur
e M
ap o
f the
Dec
ade
(200
3, 2
004,
200
5), a
vaila
ble
at:
o
2003
--ht
tp://
ww
w.if
tf.or
g/do
cs/S
R-7
97_M
ap_o
f_de
cade
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. o
20
04 --
http
://w
ww
.iftf.
org/
docs
/SR
-844
_200
4_M
ap_o
f_th
e_D
ecad
e.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
. o
20
05 --
http
://w
ww
.iftf.
org/
docs
/SR
-910
_200
5_M
OTD
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. •
Offi
ce o
f Sci
ence
and
Tec
hnol
ogy,
“For
esig
ht:
Dru
gs F
utur
es 2
025?
The
Sce
nario
s, ” a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.fore
sigh
t.gov
.uk/
Brai
n_Sc
ienc
e_A
ddic
tion_
and_
Dru
gs/R
epor
ts_a
nd_P
ublic
atio
ns/D
rugs
Futu
res2
025/
DTI
-Sce
nario
s.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
. •
Ora
nge
Futu
re E
nter
pris
e C
oalit
ion,
“Sce
nario
s of
Wor
k an
d Te
chno
logy
in 2
016,
” ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.o
rang
ecoa
litio
n.co
m/a
pp/w
ebro
ot/fi
les/
whi
tepa
pers
/Ora
nge_
scen
ario
s_of
_wor
k_an
d_te
chno
logy
_201
6.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber
2006
). •
Taki
ng S
tock
, “Fu
ture
s Sc
enar
ios”
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.ta
king
stoc
k.or
g/Fu
ture
s.as
p (a
cces
sed
15 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6).
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
67
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: B
oom
and
Bla
me
•Th
e W
orkp
lace
Inte
lligen
ce U
nit /
DTI
, “Th
e Fu
ture
of W
ork”
sce
nario
s, a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.wor
kpla
cein
telli
genc
e.co
.uk/
uplo
ads/
files
/dti_
futu
re_o
f_w
ork.
pdf (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
i This
org
anis
atio
nal s
chem
e is
ada
pted
from
Glo
bal F
ores
ight
Ass
ocia
tes’
“Eth
noFu
ture
s Sc
anni
ng F
ram
ewor
k, ” d
evis
ed b
y M
iche
lle B
owm
an a
nd K
aipo
Lu
m.
Mic
helle
Bow
man
and
Wen
dy S
chul
tz, “
Best
Pra
ctic
es in
Env
ironm
enta
l Sca
nnin
g: T
he W
orld
Bey
ond
Stee
p, ” p
rese
ntat
ion
at th
e W
orld
Fut
ure
Soci
ety,
Chi
cago
, 30
July
200
5.
ii W
ith a
ckno
wle
dgem
ents
to th
e w
riter
and
dire
ctor
of t
he m
ovie
“Gat
taca
, ” w
ho c
oine
d th
is te
rm.
iii Fi
tzge
rald
, Ron
an, “
Follo
w y
ou, f
ollo
w m
e, ” T
he G
uard
ian,
Thu
rsda
y, 1
4 Se
ptem
ber 2
006.
iv
Mui
r, Ka
te, “
The
first
hum
an c
redi
t car
ds, ”
The
Tim
es, 3
Sep
tem
ber 2
006.
v
See
Fre
eman
, Had
ley,
“Not
hing
in y
our s
ize?
Sto
res
seek
to m
easu
re u
p, ” T
he G
uard
ian,
Sat
urda
y, 9
Sep
tem
ber 2
006.
vi
C
hris
Oak
ley’
s 20
04 s
hort
film
, “Th
e C
atal
ogue
, ” pr
esen
ts a
vis
ual s
cena
rio o
f a d
atab
ase
of c
usto
mer
info
rmat
ion
incl
udin
g pr
evio
us p
urch
ases
, phy
sica
l an
d he
alth
cha
ract
eris
tics,
and
fina
ncia
l inf
orm
atio
n.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
HSE
Sce
nario
Pro
ject
: Tou
gh C
hoic
es
Intro
duct
ion:
Sc
enar
io C
ross
Th
is s
cena
rio is
one
of a
set
of f
our c
ompr
isin
g H
SE
’s S
cena
rios
for t
he F
utur
e of
P
erso
nal r
espo
nsib
ility
, pro
-act
ive
adop
tion
of te
chno
logy
, H
ealth
and
Saf
ety
in 2
017.
The
sce
nario
s re
sulte
d fro
m d
iscu
ssio
ns a
nd g
roup
wor
k m
anag
emen
t of r
isk,
abi
lity
to a
bsor
b im
pact
s of
con
flict
/war
and
du
ring
a sc
enar
io b
uild
ing
wor
ksho
p (2
0-21
Jul
y 20
06) h
oste
d by
the
HS
E’s
Hor
izon
re
silie
nce
in th
e fa
ce o
f eco
nom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er s
hock
s S
cann
ing
team
as
part
of a
wid
er s
cena
rio p
lann
ing
proj
ect.
Par
ticip
ants
prio
ritis
ed
chan
ge is
sues
and
cre
ated
the
‘sce
nario
cro
ss’ t
o th
e rig
ht th
at p
rovi
ded
the
logi
cal
fram
ewor
k fo
r fou
r sce
nario
s. T
he ti
me
horiz
on ta
rget
ed w
as 2
017.
Thi
s sc
enar
io,
‘Tou
gh C
hoic
es’,
is d
riven
by
decr
ease
d pe
rson
al re
spon
sibi
lity
– a
‘bla
me
cultu
re’
– an
d de
crea
sed
risk
tole
ranc
e co
mbi
ned
with
dec
reas
ed U
K c
ompe
titiv
enes
s in
th
e gl
obal
pol
itica
l eco
nom
y.
Dec
reas
ed U
K
com
petit
iven
ess
Sce
nario
s ar
e no
t pre
dict
ions
of t
he fu
ture
– th
ey a
re v
ivid
sto
ries
abou
t pos
sibl
e fu
ture
s. T
hey
help
us
expl
ore
the
boun
darie
s of
unc
erta
inty
def
ined
by
spec
ified
dr
iver
s of
cha
nge.
Sce
nario
s w
ritte
n fo
r int
erac
tive
exer
cise
s ar
e ty
pica
lly b
rief,
Incr
ease
d U
K
com
petit
iven
ess,
ha
rmon
isat
ion
of
regu
latio
ns;
diffe
rent
ly a
bled
in
empl
oym
ent;
inco
rpor
atio
n of
m
igra
nts;
ente
rpris
e cu
lture
, ex
pect
atio
n of
w
ell-b
eing
and
so
cial
coh
esio
n
68
depi
cted
in p
erso
nal r
athe
r tha
n in
stitu
tiona
l ane
cdot
es, a
nd s
alte
d w
ith h
umou
r (la
ught
er a
ids
impa
ct a
nd m
emor
y).
But
thes
e ar
e be
st b
ased
on
rese
arch
sc
enar
ios:
lon
ger n
arra
tives
, dep
icte
d in
bro
ader
term
s. T
he re
sear
ch s
cena
rio fo
r ‘T
ough
Cho
ices
’ beg
ins
with
a b
rief o
verv
iew
of c
ondi
tions
in 2
017
and
the
hist
oric
al c
hang
es th
at c
reat
ed th
em.
It th
en e
xplo
res
how
life
is d
iffer
ent i
n th
is
futu
re in
gre
ater
det
ail:i
•W
hat c
once
pts,
idea
s an
d pa
radi
gms
defin
e th
e w
orld
aro
und
us?
•H
ow d
o w
e re
late
to e
ach
othe
r – w
hat a
re th
e so
cial
stru
ctur
es a
nd
rela
tions
hips
that
link
peo
ple
and
orga
nisa
tions
?•
How
do
we
conn
ect w
ith e
ach
othe
r --w
hat t
echn
olog
ies
conn
ect p
eopl
e,
plac
es a
nd th
ings
? •
Wha
t are
the
proc
esse
s an
d te
chno
logi
es th
roug
h w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
an
d se
rvic
es?
•H
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow d
o w
e ac
quire
and
use
th
em?
The
scen
ario
fini
shes
by
focu
sing
on
the
chan
ging
wor
kpla
ce, a
nd c
hang
ed h
ealth
an
d sa
fety
issu
es.
Bla
me
cultu
re, r
esis
tanc
e to
new
tech
nolo
gy, r
ejec
tion
of ri
sk,
shat
tere
d by
impa
cts
of c
onfli
ct/w
ar a
nd fr
agili
ty in
the
face
of
econ
omic
/soc
ial/o
ther
sho
cks
Dec
reas
ed U
K c
ompe
titiv
enes
s
Bla
me
cultu
re, r
esis
tanc
e to
ne
w te
chno
logy
, rej
ectio
n of
ris
k, s
hatte
red
by im
pact
s of
co
nflic
t/war
and
frag
ility
in th
e To
ugh
Cho
ices
fa
ce o
f eco
nom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er
shoc
ks
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
69
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
‘Tou
gh C
hoic
es’
Ove
rvie
w
As t
he 2
0th ce
ntur
y en
ded,
ana
lyst
s w
rote
‘202
0’ f
orec
asts
, sc
enar
ios,
and
vis
ions
– fo
r ci
ties,
pro
vinc
es, a
nd c
ount
ries;
fo
r com
pani
es, a
genc
ies,
and
ent
ire s
ecto
rs; a
nd fo
r spe
cies
, ec
osys
tem
s, a
nd p
lane
tary
dyn
amic
s.
From
the
vant
age
of
2017
– w
ithin
hai
ling
dist
ance
of 2
020
–
The
pres
ent
is a
land
scap
e lit
tere
d w
ith t
ough
cho
ices
; th
e fu
ture
see
ms
nast
y an
d br
utis
h. A
ny c
ompa
rativ
e ad
vant
age
that
Eur
ope
once
enj
oyed
on
the
glob
al e
cono
mic
sta
ge h
as
evap
orat
ed.
The
decl
inin
g ec
onom
y dr
ove
the
best
and
br
ight
est
of t
he y
oung
ove
rsea
s se
arch
ing
for
wel
l-pai
d ca
reer
s. I
nnov
atio
n ha
s sl
owed
as
a re
sult.
Une
mpl
oym
ent
is h
igh
whi
le a
t th
e sa
me
time
low
-end
job
s go
beg
ging
. M
ore
and
mor
e of
ten
thos
e jo
bs a
re fi
lled
by m
igra
nt w
orke
rs
or il
lega
l alie
ns.
Soci
al
divi
des
and
alie
natio
n ha
ve
ampl
ified
fro
m
the
mille
nniu
m o
n. R
isin
g re
sent
men
ts g
ener
ated
mor
e lit
igat
ion
as
peop
le
stro
ve
to
blam
e so
meo
ne
else
fo
r th
eir
grie
vanc
es.
Dis
affe
cted
yo
uth
join
ga
ngs
that
sp
lit
com
mun
ity tu
rf. N
ews
from
urb
an n
eigh
bour
hood
s lo
oks
like
cove
rage
of
civi
l w
ar –
loc
al r
iots
are
com
mon
, an
d lo
cal
polic
ing
is to
ughe
r in
resp
onse
.
Swee
ping
der
egul
atio
n ac
ross
Eur
ope
was
hop
ed t
o ju
mp-
star
t th
e ec
onom
y.
The
only
res
ult s
o fa
r is
an
incr
ease
in
air,
soil,
and
wat
er p
ollu
tion.
The
gre
y an
d bl
ack
econ
omie
s ha
ve c
erta
inly
bee
n gr
owin
g –
but t
hat t
rend
pre
cede
d de
-
regu
latio
n, a
s or
gani
sed
crim
e di
sreg
ards
reg
ulat
ions
in a
ny
case
.
Whi
le s
till
free
at t
he p
oint
of
deliv
ery,
the
NH
S i
s un
der
trem
endo
us p
ress
ure.
Priv
ate
heal
th in
sura
nce
is e
xpen
sive
bu
t tho
se th
at c
an a
fford
it, p
ay.
Anal
ysts
wor
ry th
at th
e U
K
is o
n th
e br
ink
of c
ompl
ete
soci
etal
bre
akdo
wn;
new
dat
a su
gges
ts
incr
ease
d m
alnu
tritio
n an
d de
clin
ing
life
expe
ctan
cy.
Rec
ent H
isto
ry (2
007
– 20
17)
2007
: So
ciet
y as
a w
hole
was
gro
win
g in
crea
sing
ly li
tigio
us.
Whi
le n
ot m
atch
ing
US
lev
els,
mor
e an
d m
ore
com
pani
es
wer
e co
ping
with
cla
ss a
nd g
roup
act
ions
. ii U
K c
ompa
nies
al
so i
ncre
asin
gly
foun
d th
emse
lves
in
cour
t ac
tions
with
re
gard
to
regu
lato
ry i
nfra
ctio
ns.
Busi
ness
lea
ders
dec
ried
wha
t th
ey s
aw a
s th
e ex
cess
ivel
y co
mpl
ex U
K r
egul
ator
y en
viro
nmen
t.
Atte
mpt
s to
repr
iorit
ise
the
scie
nces
and
mat
hem
atic
s w
ithin
th
e U
K e
duca
tiona
l sys
tem
sho
wed
mix
ed r
esul
ts.
The
first
ye
ar
of
the
expe
rimen
tal
prog
ram
fo
cusi
ng
mat
hs
and
scie
nces
G
CSE
s on
qu
estio
ns
draw
n fro
m
daily
lif
e m
aint
aine
d st
uden
t int
eres
t, bu
t did
not
dem
onst
rate
whe
ther
th
ey w
ere
adeq
uate
ly p
repa
red
to c
ontin
ue s
cien
ce s
tudi
es
post
-16.
Tow
ards
the
end
of 2
007,
the
EU e
cono
my
slow
ed.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
70
2008
: R
ecor
d le
vels
of i
mm
igra
tion
into
the
UK
from
eas
tern
Eu
rope
co
ntin
ued.
iii In
crea
sing
pu
blic
un
ease
w
ith
the
situ
atio
n m
ay h
ave
cont
ribut
ed t
o th
e gr
owth
of
the
right
-w
ing
in g
over
nmen
t; ca
ndid
ates
wer
e pr
opos
ing
to c
onsi
der
imm
igra
tion
cont
rols
in a
dditi
on to
sim
plify
ing
the
regu
lato
ry
envi
ronm
ent f
or b
usin
ess.
2009
: As
the
firs
t de
cade
of
the
21st
ce
ntur
y ca
me
to a
n en
d, th
e po
wer
hous
e ec
onom
ies
in M
iddl
e Ea
st, S
outh
Asi
a,
and
East
Asi
a ca
me
into
thei
r ow
n. E
U c
ompe
titiv
enes
s an
d gr
owth
sag
ged
in c
ompa
rison
. Th
us b
egan
the
UK
‘yo
uth
drai
n’.
Mor
e an
d m
ore
high
ly q
ualif
ied
grad
uate
s be
gan
to
look
abr
oad
for i
nter
estin
g ca
reer
s.
Dom
estic
ally
, th
e nu
mbe
rs a
nd v
arie
ties
of y
outh
gan
gs in
U
K
com
mun
ities
in
crea
sed.
An
alys
ts
sugg
este
d a
conn
ectio
n w
ith
the
econ
omic
sl
owdo
wn
and
risin
g un
empl
oym
ent.
Ris
ing
leve
ls o
f con
flict
, on
the
othe
r ha
nd,
wer
e at
tribu
ted
to c
ultu
ral
clas
hes
amon
g lo
ng-ti
me
loca
ls
and
vario
us n
ew im
mig
rant
gro
ups.
2010
: By
201
0 th
e Eu
rope
an e
cono
mic
hic
coug
h w
as
reve
alin
g its
elf a
s a
maj
or s
tum
ble.
The
UK
was
not
imm
une,
an
d bu
sine
ss’ a
bilit
y to
ada
pt a
nd in
nova
te w
as h
ampe
red
by
an
incr
easi
ng
tale
nt
drou
ght
in
the
scie
nces
, m
athe
mat
ics,
and
eng
inee
ring.
The
influ
x of
imm
igra
nts
and
mig
rant
w
orke
rs
cont
inue
d,
alon
g w
ith
an
incr
ease
d in
cide
nce
of il
lega
l wor
k ga
ngs.
N
ew g
hetto
are
as e
mer
ged
in U
K c
ities
, and
the
grey
and
bla
ck e
cono
mie
s bl
osso
med
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
2011
: An
alre
ady
pres
sure
d N
HS
foun
d its
elf u
nabl
e to
cop
e w
ith t
he a
dditi
onal
bur
den
of im
mig
rant
and
mig
rant
wor
ker
heal
th p
robl
ems.
Ep
idem
iolo
gist
s tra
cked
a ju
mp
in T
B a
nd
cont
agio
us
dise
ases
ce
ntre
d in
de
pres
sed
urba
n ne
ighb
ourh
oods
. C
omm
uniti
es
wer
e po
laris
ed
by
fear
, pr
imar
ily
acro
ss
cultu
ral
lines
, w
hen
long
-tim
e re
side
nts
blam
ed i
mm
igra
nts
for
brin
ging
the
inf
ectio
ns w
ith t
hem
. Th
e pu
blic
bla
med
the
gov
ernm
ent
as w
ell
for
failin
g to
co
ntro
l th
e tid
e of
im
mig
ratio
n. T
his
parti
cula
r cr
isis
was
si
mpl
y a
sym
ptom
of
the
pola
risat
ion
of s
ocie
ty a
s a
who
le
due
to a
dee
peni
ng e
cono
mic
div
ide.
2012
: Th
e TB
cris
is o
f 20
12 f
inal
ly p
ut t
he N
HS
int
o fu
ll-bl
own
arre
st:
it si
mpl
y la
cked
th
e re
sour
ces
to
treat
ev
eryo
ne i
nfec
ted,
or
even
to
iden
tify
who
all
the
infe
cted
w
ere.
On
the
econ
omic
fro
nt,
inno
vatio
n co
ntin
ued
to s
low
, an
d em
ploy
men
t fe
ll ov
eral
l. Th
e re
sulti
ng d
rop
in g
over
nmen
t re
venu
e co
uple
d w
ith c
ontin
ued
stre
sses
on
gove
rnm
ent
serv
ices
for
ced
cutb
acks
. H
ealth
ben
efits
wer
e cu
rtaile
d;
unem
ploy
men
t an
d in
capa
city
ben
efits
pro
gram
mes
wer
e re
duce
d; a
nd o
ld-a
ge p
ensi
ons
suffe
red
thei
r firs
t cut
.
2014
: M
ore
and
mor
e sm
all
busi
ness
es w
ere
driv
en t
o du
biou
s hi
ring
prac
tices
in a
n ef
fort
to s
tay
com
petit
ive.
Thi
s in
tur
n en
cour
aged
gan
gmas
ters
to
proc
ure
ever
che
aper
la
bour
poo
ls a
nd t
he N
ovem
ber
acci
dent
in
Live
rpoo
l w
as
com
mon
ly r
efer
red
to a
s an
‘in
dust
rial
Mor
ecam
be B
ay’.
Auto
psie
s un
veile
d th
e ap
pallin
g de
tail
that
the
gang
mas
ters
in
que
stio
n ha
d in
ject
ed t
he w
orke
rs w
ith s
ubcu
tane
ous
RFI
D ‘i
nven
tory
tags
’.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
71
Hea
lth o
ffici
als
note
d th
e ris
e in
mum
ps, m
easl
es a
nd ru
bella
w
ith re
sign
atio
n; s
tress
es o
n N
HS
resu
lted
in th
e co
llaps
e of
an
ythi
ng li
ke a
n ef
fect
ive
vacc
inat
ion
regi
me.
2017
: “It
’s
offic
ial;
it’s
defla
tion!
” Br
itain
’s
cons
umer
sp
endi
ng f
alls
to
its l
owes
t po
int
in t
hirty
yea
rs.
Wha
t w
e ne
ed, p
undi
ts d
ecla
red,
is in
cent
ives
to b
orro
w a
nd b
uild
in
orde
r to
jum
psta
rt th
e ec
onom
y. P
ublic
out
rage
ove
r th
e ec
onom
ic c
risis
was
furth
er fu
elle
d by
a s
erie
s of
inte
rvie
ws
cond
ucte
d by
BBC
of p
ensi
oner
s on
the
brea
dlin
e.
In-D
epth
Exp
lora
tion
Def
ine:
wha
t con
cept
s, id
eas,
par
adig
ms,
and
val
ues
defin
e th
is w
orld
?
Peop
le h
ave
beco
me
mor
e in
war
d lo
okin
g. I
n st
raite
ned
finan
cial
tim
es,
the
prio
rity
is o
n pe
rson
al c
halle
nges
, no
t gl
obal
ch
alle
nges
. In
divi
dual
s’
prim
ary
loya
lty
is
to
them
selv
es. D
aily
life
bot
h at
wor
k an
d at
hom
e ha
s be
com
e a
serie
s of
diff
icul
t tra
de-o
ffs. M
ost p
eopl
e se
e co
nser
vatio
n as
the
best
cop
ing
mec
hani
sm, c
onse
rvin
g th
eir e
nerg
y, th
eir
time,
th
eir
mon
ey,
and
even
th
eir
soci
al
cont
acts
. Li
fe
invo
lves
car
eful
ratio
ning
and
allo
catio
n of
lim
ited
reso
urce
s.
Get
ting
ahea
d is
a d
ista
nt d
ream
; lit
tle e
xces
s ex
ists
for
an
ythi
ng
muc
h be
yond
m
aint
aini
ng
thei
r st
atus
qu
o.
Soci
ety’
s op
erat
iona
l m
odel
mig
ht a
s w
ell
be,
“if y
ou c
an’t
gain
gro
und,
at l
east
don
’t lo
se a
ny.”
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
Soci
ety
as a
who
le i
s m
ore
insu
lar,
seei
ng o
utsi
ders
as
com
petit
ors
for
scar
ce r
esou
rces
. Ad
vent
ure
is a
luxu
ry, a
s is
hav
ing
a ch
oice
abo
ut w
ork/
life
bala
nce.
Pe
ople
are
ch
afin
g w
ithin
the
ir ec
onom
ic c
onst
rain
ts.
Res
entm
ent
is
rife,
and
an
incr
easi
ngly
agg
rieve
d pu
blic
find
s it
easi
er a
nd
easi
er t
o co
mpl
ain
via
the
cour
ts.
Litig
atio
n is
the
new
‘p
rope
rty la
dder
’, ju
st a
noth
er ta
ctic
for g
ettin
g ah
ead.
Rel
ate:
ho
w d
o pe
ople
rel
ate
to e
ach
othe
r –
wha
t are
the
soci
al
stru
ctur
es
and
rela
tions
hips
th
at
link
peop
le
and
orga
nisa
tions
?
Ove
r the
last
dec
ade
pres
sure
on
gove
rnm
ent s
ervi
ces
and
agen
cies
has
gro
wn
whi
le ta
x re
venu
es h
ave
slow
ly e
rode
d.
The
inev
itabl
e cu
tbac
ks
redu
ced
serv
ices
an
d be
nefit
s.
Peop
le c
an r
ely
on g
over
nmen
t as
sist
ance
in
few
er a
nd
few
er
area
s of
th
eir
lives
. Po
litic
al
initi
ativ
es
prun
ing
regu
lato
ry s
truct
ures
hav
e ha
d th
e sa
me
resu
lt vi
s-à-
vis
busi
ness
.
Euro
pe’s
rol
e in
the
glo
bal
econ
omy
has
ebbe
d.
Brita
in’s
hi
stor
ical
con
nect
ions
with
Sou
th a
nd E
ast A
sia
now
see
m to
fu
nctio
n pr
imar
ily a
s a
conv
enie
nt c
ondu
it by
whi
ch A
sian
in
vest
ors
buy
out
Briti
sh
com
pani
es,
and
attra
ct
youn
g Br
itish
wor
kers
. Ev
en w
ith a
slu
ggis
h ec
onom
y, h
owev
er,
Brita
in s
till o
ffers
mor
e op
portu
nitie
s th
an m
any
of it
s ea
ster
n Eu
rope
an n
eigh
bour
s, s
o w
hile
the
bes
t an
d br
ight
est
in
Brita
in h
ead
east
, eas
tern
Eur
opea
ns h
ungr
y fo
r op
portu
nity
he
ad w
est t
o th
e U
K.
Org
anis
ed c
rime
netw
orks
hun
gry
for
oppo
rtuni
ty
have
al
so
mov
ed
onto
Br
itish
so
il w
hile
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
72
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
mai
ntai
ning
the
ir co
nnec
tions
and
act
iviti
es in
hom
e ba
ses
thro
ugho
ut E
urop
e.
Peop
le
wor
ry
a lo
t m
ore
abou
t se
curit
y in
th
eir
neig
hbou
rhoo
ds
and
com
mun
ities
. In
crea
sed
yout
h vi
olen
ce b
oth
cont
ribut
es t
o an
d re
sults
fro
m
incr
ease
d et
hnic
te
nsio
n be
twee
n lo
ng-te
rm
resi
dent
s an
d ne
w
imm
igra
nts,
whe
ther
lega
l or
illega
l. As
a r
esul
t, th
e po
lice
are
the
one
bran
ch o
f go
vern
men
t ex
pand
ing,
and
hav
e in
crea
sed
thei
r pr
esen
ce in
com
mun
ities
thro
ugho
ut B
ritai
n.
That
pre
senc
e is
toug
her
than
it w
as in
yea
rs p
ast,
as b
oth
the
yout
h vi
olen
ce a
nd t
he i
llega
l im
mig
rant
s ar
e of
ten
sym
ptom
s of
the
und
erly
ing
encr
oach
men
t of
int
erna
tiona
l or
gani
sed
crim
e.
The
‘eve
ry o
ne f
or t
hem
selv
es’
envi
ronm
ent
has
draw
n a
clos
e lin
e ar
ound
imm
edia
te fa
mili
es.
The
eros
ion
of m
iddl
e cl
ass
expe
ctat
ions
, no
t to
men
tion
disc
retio
nary
inc
ome,
le
aves
littl
e ex
cess
to a
id e
xten
ded
rela
tions
. W
here
you
ng
peop
le h
ave
foun
d jo
bs o
vers
eas,
the
y of
ten
send
fun
ds
hom
e an
d as
sist
thei
r bro
ther
s an
d si
ster
s in
find
ing
wor
k as
w
ell.
It ty
pifie
s th
e to
ugh
choi
ces
of th
is e
nviro
nmen
t: liv
e w
ith y
our
fam
ily a
nd s
trugg
le to
mak
e en
ds m
eet,
or s
catte
r th
e fa
mily
ove
r the
glo
be a
nd g
et a
head
?
Glo
bal
war
min
g ha
s re
nder
ed
the
natu
ral
envi
ronm
ent
incr
easi
ngly
un
pred
icta
ble.
U
ncer
tain
te
mpe
ratu
re
and
wea
ther
pat
tern
s m
ake
agric
ultu
re m
ore
of a
gam
ble,
and
ex
trem
e st
orm
s ac
com
pani
ed b
y he
ight
ened
sto
rm s
urge
da
mag
e co
asta
l inf
rast
ruct
ure.
Th
e en
viro
nmen
talis
ts m
ade
thei
r cas
e su
cces
sful
ly, a
nd e
very
one
ackn
owle
dges
the
link
betw
een
the
high
-car
bon
lifes
tyle
and
glo
bal w
arm
ing.
Bu
t
mos
t pe
ople
gru
mbl
e th
at m
ost
of t
he f
ault
can
be l
aid
at
Amer
ica’
s do
orst
ep,
and
it’s
not
like
any
of u
s ha
ve a
ny
spar
e ch
ange
fo
r re
trofit
ting
our
lifes
tyle
s w
ith
gree
n co
nsum
er g
oods
, now
do
we?
Pe
ople
do
cons
erve
ene
rgy
and
reso
urce
s as
muc
h as
they
can
, but
in th
is e
cono
my,
the
ratio
nale
is c
ost-s
avin
g, n
ot e
nviro
nmen
tal c
orre
ctne
ss.
Con
nect
: ho
w
do
we
conn
ect
with
ea
ch
othe
r –
wha
t te
chno
logi
es c
onne
ct p
eopl
e, p
lace
s, a
nd th
ings
?
The
‘dig
ital d
ivid
e’ th
at p
undi
ts w
arne
d ab
out t
en y
ears
ago
ha
s w
iden
ed a
nd t
rans
form
ed.
It’s
no lo
nger
a q
uest
ion
of
whe
ther
peo
ple
own
a ho
me
com
pute
r an
d ha
ve I
nter
net
acce
ss:
with
the
adv
ent
of p
erva
sive
com
putin
g, s
ocie
ty
now
face
s a
‘real
wor
ld’ –
‘dig
ital r
ealit
y’ d
ivid
e. T
he w
ealth
y ha
ve p
erva
sive
com
putin
g an
d co
mm
unic
atio
n ne
twor
ks,
livin
g im
mer
sed
in a
n ‘a
lway
s on
’ inf
orm
atio
n en
viro
nmen
t of
ambi
ent i
ntel
ligen
ce.
Ever
ybod
y el
se is
stu
ck in
an
anal
ogue
w
orld
, ha
ving
to
mak
e do
with
tur
n-of
-the-
21st-c
entu
ry I
CT
syst
ems.
Mob
ile p
hone
s co
ntin
ued
thei
r M
oore
’s L
aw m
arch
tow
ards
in
crea
sing
cap
acity
and
cap
abilit
ies,
and
so
have
bec
ome
the
poor
per
son’
s po
rtabl
e in
form
atio
n en
viro
nmen
t. In
tern
et
conn
ectio
n,
GPS
ca
pabi
lity,
an
d in
tera
ctio
n w
ith
othe
r pe
rson
al
com
putin
g an
d en
terta
inm
ent
appl
ianc
es
all
beca
me
chea
p en
ough
to in
clud
e in
bas
ic s
ervi
ce p
acka
ges.
As u
sual
, kid
s ar
e ap
plyi
ng th
ose
capa
bilit
ies
crea
tivel
y. T
he
new
cra
ze i
n ur
ban
free
run
orie
ntee
ring
com
bine
s fre
e ru
nnin
g w
ith m
ore
tradi
tiona
l orie
ntee
ring,
with
che
ckpo
ints
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
73
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
digi
tally
adm
inis
tere
d vi
a G
PS a
nd in
tern
et-e
nabl
ed m
obile
ph
ones
. O
f co
urse
, yo
uth
gang
s ar
e al
so u
sing
mob
ile
phon
es c
reat
ivel
y to
coo
rdin
ate
thei
r ac
tiviti
es;
gang
war
s of
ten
begi
n w
ith c
oord
inat
ed ‘f
lash
mob
’ vio
lenc
e.
The
phys
ical
in
frast
ruct
ure
of
conn
ectio
n is
de
cayi
ng.
Roa
ds, b
ridge
s, r
ails
, air
term
inal
s –
all n
eed
refu
rbis
hmen
t no
w to
mai
ntai
n sa
fe o
pera
ting
cond
ition
s, a
nd th
e fu
nds
for
capi
tal
impr
ovem
ent
sim
ply
aren
’t th
ere.
Ev
en
com
mun
icat
ions
net
wor
ks n
eed
cons
iste
nt r
e-in
vest
men
t to
as
sure
un
brok
en
serv
ice,
an
d co
ntin
ued
econ
omic
de
pres
sion
will
mak
e th
at d
iffic
ult.
With
eac
h ye
ar o
f w
ear
on t
hese
bas
ic s
yste
ms,
acc
iden
ts i
ncre
ase,
fee
ding
the
lit
igat
ion
frenz
y.
And
the
mor
e ex
trem
e w
eath
er g
ener
ated
by
glo
bal w
arm
ing
will
only
acc
eler
ate
that
wea
r and
tear
.
Cre
ate:
wha
t ar
e th
e pr
oces
ses
and
tech
nolo
gies
thr
ough
w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
and
ser
vice
s?
The
UK
labo
ur m
arke
t ha
s be
com
e a
push
me-
pull
you
of
emig
ratio
n an
d im
mig
ratio
n. B
usin
esse
s ha
ve d
owns
ized
to
cut c
osts
and
incr
ease
pro
duct
ivity
. C
ompe
titio
n fo
r the
bes
t jo
bs is
hot
, and
dis
appo
inte
d ca
ndid
ates
with
gre
at C
Vs lo
ok
else
whe
re i
n th
e w
orld
.iv
Low
er d
own
the
empl
oym
ent
ladd
er,
peop
le a
re e
lbow
ing
each
oth
er a
side
for
jobs
with
lo
ng-te
rm h
ealth
and
pen
sion
ben
efits
.
Even
with
hig
h un
empl
oym
ent,
seas
onal
and
low
-end
jobs
go
beg
ging
. Th
at n
eed
is a
nsw
ered
by
EU im
mig
rant
s ea
ger
to g
et a
toe
on
the
econ
omic
ladd
er,
even
at
the
low
end
. U
nfor
tuna
tely
, th
e ne
ed
has
also
be
en
answ
ered
by
v un
scru
pulo
us g
angm
aste
rs a
nd o
rgan
ised
crim
e.
Stor
ies
erup
t in
the
new
s on
a r
egul
ar b
asis
abo
ut t
he a
buse
of
mig
rant
wor
kers
and
the
illega
l im
port
of la
bour
.
Rev
enue
pie
s ar
e sh
rinki
ng a
nd r
esou
rces
are
incr
easi
ngly
lim
ited
for
indi
vidu
als,
fo
r co
mpa
nies
, an
d fo
r th
e go
vern
men
t. Be
lt-tig
hten
ing
is t
he r
ule
of t
he d
ay.
With
lim
ited
capi
tal a
nd re
sour
ces
to g
ambl
e on
new
end
eavo
urs,
in
vest
ors
shy
away
fro
m
risky
in
nova
tions
. Th
is
cons
erva
tism
ha
s sl
owed
th
e U
K’s
vigo
rous
fin
anci
al
serv
ices
sec
tor.
The
era
of tr
aditi
onal
indu
stry
and
man
ufac
turin
g w
as fa
ding
at
th
e tu
rn o
f th
e m
illenn
ium
. M
assi
ve t
rans
ition
s ar
e di
fficu
lt, a
nd th
e tra
nsiti
on to
the
digi
tal e
xper
ienc
e ec
onom
y is
no
diffe
rent
. W
ith a
wea
lth o
f in
telle
ctua
l cap
ital,
the
UK
sh
ould
hav
e be
en fi
rst o
ff th
e st
artin
g bl
ock
in m
eldi
ng n
ew
mat
eria
ls s
cien
ces,
des
ign,
and
med
ia i
nto
an e
cono
mic
tra
nsfo
rmat
ion.
Whe
re d
id B
ritai
n’s
econ
omy
stum
ble?
The
U
K’s
capa
city
to
crea
te s
nagg
ed o
n a
lega
cy o
f un
der-
inve
stm
ent
in
basi
c in
frast
ruct
ure
and
educ
atio
n,
com
poun
ded
by i
ncre
asin
g pu
blic
war
ines
s of
inn
ovat
ive
tech
nolo
gies
as
pote
ntia
lly d
isru
ptiv
e.
Con
sum
e: h
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow
do w
e ac
quire
and
use
them
?
Both
con
sum
er s
pend
ing
and
savi
ng a
re a
t th
e lo
wes
t eb
b fo
r th
irty
year
s.
Peop
le a
re p
urch
asin
g fe
wer
goo
ds,
and
purc
hasi
ng le
ss e
xpen
sive
goo
ds.
They
are
buy
ing
chea
p,
buyi
ng k
nock
-offs
, and
buy
ing
in b
ulk.
Sal
es o
f spe
cial
ty a
nd
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
74
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
orga
nic
food
s ha
ve fa
llen.
C
onsu
mer
s ar
e no
long
er a
imin
g fo
r the
bes
t; th
ey a
re a
imin
g in
stea
d fo
r the
mos
t affo
rdab
le.
This
mea
ns s
ales
in
high
stre
et s
hops
hav
e dr
oppe
d, a
nd
that
hig
h-en
d su
perm
arke
ts a
re l
osin
g to
low
-end
cha
ins.
D
irect
mar
ketin
g vi
a th
e In
tern
et is
als
o po
pula
r, as
is e
Bay.
St
reet
ped
dler
s ha
ve s
een
a st
artli
ng r
ise
in s
ales
in
thei
r cl
ient
ele,
and
the
gre
y m
arke
t, th
e us
ed m
arke
t, an
d th
e bl
ack
mar
ket
are
all g
row
ing,
in c
ontra
st t
o th
e re
st o
f th
e ec
onom
y.
This
of c
ours
e ha
s its
haz
ards
for
the
cons
umer
, as
thes
e go
ods
tend
to la
ck a
ctiv
e w
arra
ntie
s.
Onc
e ac
quire
d,
peop
le
use
thei
r pu
rcha
ses
– w
heth
er
clot
hing
, app
lianc
es, o
r con
sum
able
s –
with
a g
reat
er e
ye to
th
eir
long
evity
. D
efla
tion
has
trans
form
ed t
he c
onsu
mer
lif
esty
le i
nto
a co
nser
ver
lifes
tyle
, w
here
peo
ple
have
les
s an
d w
hat t
hey
have
they
use
mor
e ge
ntly
and
rep
air
rath
er
than
repl
ace.
It i
s, o
f cou
rse,
this
low
ered
dem
and
that
itse
lf re
info
rces
def
latio
n:
the
vici
ous
circ
le o
f lo
wer
ed d
eman
d de
crea
sing
pr
oduc
tion,
lo
wer
ing
reve
nues
, tri
gger
ing
job
cutb
acks
, and
dep
ress
ing
dem
and
even
furth
er.
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y in
the
Cha
ngin
g W
orkp
lace
The
heal
th d
ivid
e gr
ows
wid
er: t
here
’s n
ot e
noug
h w
ork
and
for
thos
e at
wor
k, p
reci
ous
little
wel
l-bei
ng.
The
prio
rity
for
peop
le is
to h
ave
at le
ast o
ne jo
b, p
artic
ular
ly a
job
that
may
of
fer
the
holy
gra
il of
per
ks s
uch
as a
pen
sion
and
priv
ate
heal
th in
sura
nce.
Acc
usat
ions
of t
he ‘n
anny
sta
te’ h
ave
long
si
nce
with
ered
on
the
vine
of
hist
ory
– no
one
exp
ects
the
stat
e to
nan
ny a
nybo
dy a
nym
ore.
It’
s a
com
petit
ive
and
cont
entio
us s
ocie
ty.
Each
look
s ou
t for
num
ber o
ne.
Busi
ness
es
are
stru
gglin
g an
d cu
tting
ex
pens
es.
The
aver
age
wor
kpla
ce,
whe
ther
a
man
ufac
turin
g flo
or
or
a bu
sine
ss o
ffice
, is
show
ing
sign
s of
wea
r an
d te
ar w
ith li
ttle
hope
for
ren
ovat
ion
or u
pdat
ing
in t
he n
ear
futu
re.
Old
m
achi
nery
, wor
n flo
orin
g, je
rry-r
igge
d w
iring
and
ove
r-tax
ed
vent
ilatio
n an
d ex
haus
t sy
stem
s co
mbi
ne t
o cr
eate
hea
lth
haza
rds
and
the
pote
ntia
l fo
r ac
cide
nts.
Em
ploy
ers
are
jugg
ling
reso
urce
cos
ts,
staf
fing
cost
s, a
nd t
he n
eed
for
capi
tal
impr
ovem
ent,
and
heal
th a
nd s
afet
y co
nsid
erat
ions
of
ten
lose
ou
t am
ong
othe
r tra
de-o
ffs.
With
pu
blic
in
frast
ruct
ure
in
a si
mila
r st
ate,
th
e he
alth
an
d sa
fety
ha
zard
s ar
e ha
rdly
less
whe
n em
ploy
ees
leav
e w
ork.
In a
stri
pped
dow
n re
gula
tory
stru
ctur
e, s
afet
y at
wor
k is
the
prio
rity.
Pe
ople
kn
ow
that
he
alth
is
im
porta
nt
– th
e ca
mpa
igns
of
a de
cade
bef
ore
hit
thei
r ta
rget
s –
but
why
w
orry
abo
ut lo
ng-te
rm h
ealth
whe
n an
acc
iden
t at w
ork
may
st
rike
you
first
? Al
read
y, th
e m
edia
are
ref
errin
g to
Brit
ain’
s ac
cide
nt e
pide
mic
, an
epi
dem
ic t
hat
is a
mpl
ifyin
g lit
igat
ion,
as
in
jure
d pa
rties
lo
ok
for
mea
ns
to
puni
sh
offe
ndin
g em
ploy
ers
and
obta
in f
inan
cial
red
ress
. To
o of
ten
thei
r lit
igat
ion
goes
now
here
– e
mpl
oyer
s ca
n’t
or w
on’t
pay
and
the
will
isn’
t the
re to
mak
e th
em d
o so
. Bu
t som
e hi
gh p
rofil
e ca
ses
agai
nst o
rgan
isat
ions
with
dee
p po
cket
s su
ccee
d an
d ot
hers
are
enc
oura
ged
to h
ave
a go
. So
ind
ivid
uals
stil
l ov
er-e
at, d
rink
too
muc
h, a
nd s
mok
e, b
ut a
re m
ore
prep
ared
to
lay
the
fau
lt at
the
fee
t of
mar
kete
rs,
brew
ers,
and
ci
gare
tte m
anuf
actu
rers
.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
75
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
Stre
ss,
pollu
tion,
and
stre
et v
iole
nce
have
rea
ched
hei
ghts
no
t see
n fo
r thi
rty y
ears
. U
nder
repo
rting
of h
ealth
and
saf
ety
failu
res
in th
e w
orkp
lace
is ri
fe –
and
the
syst
em in
any
cas
e la
cks
the
reso
urce
s fo
r an
ythi
ng
mor
e th
an
low
-leve
l in
terv
entio
ns
and
the
inve
stig
atio
n of
se
rious
in
cide
nts.
G
iven
the
dom
inan
ce o
f the
bla
ck m
arke
t, hu
ge n
umbe
rs o
f w
orke
rs fa
ll ou
tsid
e th
ose
regu
lato
ry re
gim
es th
at re
mai
n.
Long
er-te
rm e
cono
mic
rec
over
y is
em
ergi
ng w
here
CEO
s ha
ve r
etre
nche
d, m
akin
g st
rate
gic
trade
-offs
am
ong
staf
f nu
mbe
rs,
capi
tal
impr
ovem
ent,
and
wor
kpla
ce s
tand
ards
. Im
prov
ed
wor
kpla
ce
heal
th
and
safe
ty
stan
dard
s ar
e at
tract
ing
bette
r sta
ff an
d av
oidi
ng la
wsu
its.
With
con
sum
ers
retre
nchi
ng a
s w
ell,
disc
ount
ret
aile
rs a
nd w
hole
sale
clu
bs
are
fore
cast
ing
som
e im
prov
emen
t in
cons
umer
pur
chas
ing.
Yout
h br
ight
eno
ugh
and
with
suf
ficie
nt in
itiat
ive
to s
cout
out
W
inne
rs a
nd L
oser
s op
portu
nitie
s ov
erse
as a
re c
opin
g, if
not
ben
efiti
ng.
The
new
ba
rons
of
th
e bl
ack
econ
omy
are
defin
itely
be
nefit
ing
from
the
‘Wild
Wes
t’ en
viro
nmen
t of s
tripp
ed-d
own
regu
latio
ns.
The
boun
darie
s be
twee
n th
e le
gal
and
blac
k m
arke
ts a
re n
arro
win
g. S
treet
ped
dler
s se
lling
chea
p kn
ock-
offs
are
see
ing
high
er g
row
th in
sal
es t
han
the
high
stre
et
stor
es.
Thos
e fe
w c
ompa
nies
willi
ng to
pla
y fa
st a
nd lo
ose
with
th
e re
mai
ning
la
ws
and
regu
latio
ns
can
mat
ch
orga
nize
d cr
ime
in g
ener
atin
g w
ealth
. A
flex
ible
eth
ical
and
m
oral
fra
mew
ork
is
a co
mpe
titiv
e ad
vant
age
in
this
en
viro
nmen
t.
Basi
c re
sear
ch is
suf
ferin
g, a
s is
hig
her e
duca
tion
gene
rally
: re
sour
ces
are
scar
ce a
nd b
usin
ess
foun
datio
ns h
ave
muc
h le
ss m
oney
tha
n in
pas
t. O
lder
peo
ple
find
them
selv
es in
di
re s
traits
as
publ
ic p
rogr
ams
evap
orat
e an
d ev
en t
heir
pens
ion
paym
ents
dec
line.
O
ther
pop
ulat
ions
in
need
are
al
so s
uffe
ring,
with
inc
apac
ity a
nd o
ther
ben
efits
sha
rply
cu
rtaile
d.
Rec
ent i
mm
igra
nts,
whe
ther
lega
l or
illega
l, ha
ve
a pa
rticu
larly
har
d tim
e, a
s go
vern
men
t ha
s fe
w a
ssis
tive
serv
ices
to fa
cilit
ate
thei
r ass
imila
tion
into
Brit
ish
soci
ety.
Ref
eren
ces
and
Res
ourc
es:
Fore
sigh
t and
sce
nario
s re
sour
ces
whi
ch o
ffer c
onfir
min
g ev
iden
ce a
nd in
sigh
ts fo
r the
HSE
sce
nario
s:
• ES
RC
Soc
iety
Tod
ay, “
Cha
ngin
g O
ur B
ehav
ior,
Not
the
Clim
ate”
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.e
src.
ac.u
k/E
SRC
Info
Cen
tre/a
bout
/CI/C
P/O
ur_S
ocie
ty_T
oday
/Spo
tligh
ts_2
006/
chan
ge1.
aspx
?Com
pone
ntId
=157
78&
Sour
cePa
geId
=157
97
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. •
Inst
itute
of t
he F
utur
e M
ap o
f the
Dec
ade
(200
3, 2
004,
200
5), a
vaila
ble
at:
o
2003
--ht
tp://
ww
w.if
tf.or
g/do
cs/S
R-7
97_M
ap_o
f_de
cade
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. o
20
04 --
http
://w
ww
.iftf.
org/
docs
/SR
-844
_200
4_M
ap_o
f_th
e_D
ecad
e.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
76
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: To
ugh
Cho
ices
o
2005
--ht
tp://
ww
w.if
tf.or
g/do
cs/S
R-9
10_2
005_
MO
TD.p
df (a
cces
sed
15 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6).
•O
ffice
of S
cien
ce a
nd T
echn
olog
y, “F
ores
ight
: D
rugs
Fut
ures
202
5? T
he S
cena
rios,
” ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.fo
resi
ght.g
ov.u
k/Br
ain_
Scie
nce_
Add
ictio
n_an
d_D
rugs
/Rep
orts
_and
_Pub
licat
ions
/Dru
gsFu
ture
s202
5/D
TI-S
cena
rios.
pdf (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
•O
rang
e Fu
ture
Ent
erpr
ise
Coa
litio
n, “S
cena
rios
of W
ork
and
Tech
nolo
gy in
201
6, ” a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.ora
ngec
oalit
ion.
com
/app
/web
root
/file
s/w
hite
pape
rs/O
rang
e_sc
enar
ios_
of_w
ork_
and_
tech
nolo
gy_2
016.
pdf (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 20
06).
•Ta
king
Sto
ck, “
Futu
res
Scen
ario
s” a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.taki
ngst
ock.
org/
Futu
res.
asp
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
. •
The
Wor
kpla
ce In
tellig
ence
Uni
t / D
TI, “
The
Futu
re o
f Wor
k” s
cena
rios,
ava
ilabl
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.w
orkp
lace
inte
llige
nce.
co.u
k/up
load
s/fil
es/d
ti_fu
ture
_of_
wor
k.pd
f (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
.
i This
org
anis
atio
nal s
chem
e is
ada
pted
from
Glo
bal F
ores
ight
Ass
ocia
tes’
“Eth
noFu
ture
s Sc
anni
ng F
ram
ewor
k, ” d
evis
ed b
y M
iche
lle B
owm
an a
nd K
aipo
Lu
m.
Mic
helle
Bow
man
and
Wen
dy S
chul
tz, “
Best
Pra
ctic
es in
Env
ironm
enta
l Sca
nnin
g: T
he W
orld
Bey
ond
Stee
p, ” p
rese
ntat
ion
at th
e W
orld
Fut
ure
Soci
ety,
Chi
cago
, 30
July
200
5.
ii Se
e th
e re
port
by F
ulbr
ight
and
Jaw
orsk
i, “F
ulbr
ight
Lau
nche
s Its
Thi
rd A
nnua
l Liti
gatio
n Tr
ends
Sur
vey
Find
ing,
” 10
Oct
ober
200
6, a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.fulb
right
.com
/inde
x.cf
m?f
usea
ctio
n=ne
ws.
deta
il&si
te_i
d=28
6&ar
ticle
_id=
5789
(acc
esse
d 10
Oct
ober
200
6).
Or t
he e
arlie
r rep
ort b
y th
e Fe
dera
tion
of E
urop
ean
Em
ploy
ers,
“Whi
ch c
ount
ry to
ps th
e em
ploy
men
t liti
gatio
n le
ague
in E
urop
e?”,
20 S
epte
mbe
r 200
4,
avai
labl
e at
: http
://w
ww
.fede
e.co
m/p
ress
.sht
ml#
202S
epte
mbe
r200
4 (a
cces
sed
15 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6).
iii
The
Tele
grap
h, “R
ecor
d im
mig
ratio
n fro
m E
aste
rn E
urop
e, ” 2
2 Au
gust
200
6, a
vaila
ble
onlin
e at
: ht
tp://
ww
w.te
legr
aph.
co.u
k/ne
ws/
mai
n.jh
tml;j
sess
ioni
d=U
IIKW
R5G
NN
IJH
QFI
QM
GS
FFO
AVC
BQ
WIV
0?xm
l=/n
ews/
2006
/08/
22/u
imm
igra
nt.x
ml (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
BBC
New
s, “E
x-m
inis
ter’s
imm
igra
tion
war
ning
, ” 28
Jun
e 20
06, a
vaila
ble
onlin
e at
: http
://ne
ws.
bbc.
co.u
k/1/
hi/u
k_po
litic
s/51
1989
2.st
m (a
cces
sed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
iv Th
e Ec
onom
ist,
“Nig
htm
are
scen
ario
s, ” 5
Oct
ober
200
6, a
vaila
ble
onlin
e at
: http
://w
ww
.eco
nom
ist.c
om/s
urve
ys/d
ispl
ayst
ory.
cfm
?sto
ry_i
d=E1
_SJG
TJN
G
(acc
esse
d 10
Oct
ober
200
6).
v Sc
ienc
e D
aily
, “P
olis
h w
orke
rs m
issi
ng in
Ital
ian
cam
ps, ”
14 S
epte
mbe
r 200
6, a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://w
ww
.sci
ence
daily
.com
/upi
/inde
x.ph
p?fe
ed=T
opN
ews&
artic
le=U
PI-1
-200
6091
4-07
3121
00-b
c-ita
ly-p
olan
d.xm
l (ac
cess
ed 1
5 Se
ptem
ber 2
006)
. Th
e G
uard
ian
Unl
imite
d, “E
xten
d ga
ngm
aste
r pro
tect
ion,
say
MPs
, ” 10
Jan
uary
200
5, a
vaila
ble
at:
http
://po
litic
s.gu
ardi
an.c
o.uk
/new
s/st
ory/
0,91
74,1
3871
58,0
0.ht
ml (
acce
ssed
15
Sept
embe
r 200
6).
Haz
ards
Mag
azin
e, “W
ho’s
pro
tect
ing
the
mig
rant
wor
kers
?” a
vaila
ble
at: h
ttp://
ww
w.h
azar
ds.o
rg/m
igra
nts/
(acc
esse
d 15
Sep
tem
ber 2
006)
.
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
77
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
HSE
Sce
nario
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
Intr
oduc
tion:
Sc
enar
io C
ross
Th
is s
cena
rio is
one
of a
set
of f
our c
ompr
isin
g H
SE
’s S
cena
rios
for t
he F
utur
e of
P
erso
nal r
espo
nsib
ility
, pro
-act
ive
adop
tion
of te
chno
logy
, H
ealth
and
Saf
ety
in 2
017.
The
sce
nario
s re
sulte
d fro
m d
iscu
ssio
ns a
nd g
roup
wor
k m
anag
emen
t of r
isk,
abi
lity
to a
bsor
b im
pact
s of
con
flict
/war
and
du
ring
a sc
enar
io-b
uild
ing
wor
ksho
p (2
0-21
Jul
y 20
06) h
oste
d by
HS
E’s
Hor
izon
re
silie
nce
in th
e fa
ce o
f eco
nom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er s
hock
sS
cann
ing
team
as
part
of a
wid
er s
cena
rio-p
lann
ing
proj
ect.
Par
ticip
ants
prio
ritis
ed
chan
ge is
sues
and
cre
ated
the
‘sce
nario
cro
ss’ t
o th
e rig
ht th
at p
rovi
ded
the
logi
cal
fram
ewor
k fo
r the
four
sce
nario
s. T
he ti
me
horiz
on ta
rget
ed w
as 2
017.
Thi
ssc
enar
io, ‘
A V
irtue
of N
eces
sity
’, is
driv
en b
y in
crea
sed
pers
onal
resp
onsi
bilit
y an
d
incr
ease
d ris
k to
lera
nce
com
bine
d w
ith d
ecre
ased
UK
com
petit
iven
ess
in th
e gl
obal
po
litic
al e
cono
my
(illu
stra
ted
low
er ri
ght).
D
ecre
ased
UK
co
mpe
titiv
enes
s
Sce
nario
s ar
e no
t pre
dict
ions
of t
he fu
ture
-th
ey a
re v
ivid
sto
ries
abou
t pos
sibl
e
futu
res.
The
y he
lp u
s ex
plor
e th
e bo
unda
ries
of u
ncer
tain
ty d
efin
ed b
y sp
ecifi
ed
driv
ers
of c
hang
e. S
cena
rios
writ
ten
for i
nter
activ
e ex
erci
ses
are
typi
cally
brie
f,de
pict
ed in
per
sona
l rat
her t
han
inst
itutio
nal a
necd
otes
, and
sal
ted
with
hum
our
Bla
me
cultu
re, r
esis
tanc
e to
new
tech
nolo
gy, r
ejec
tion
of ri
sk,
(laug
hter
aid
s im
pact
and
mem
ory)
. B
ut th
ese
are
best
bas
ed o
n re
sear
ch
shat
tere
d by
impa
cts
of c
onfli
ct/w
ar a
nd fr
agili
ty in
the
face
of
iti ii
li
; di
ll
in
l;
ii
mi
; l
ill-
iia
l i
Incr
ease
d U
K
com
pet
vene
ss,
harm
onsa
ton
of
regu
aton
sffe
rent
y ab
ed
emp
oym
ent
ncor
pora
ton
of
gran
tsen
terp
rise
cutu
re,
expe
ctat
on o
f w
ebe
ng a
nd
soc
cohe
son
econ
omic
/soc
ial/o
ther
sho
cks
scen
ario
s: l
onge
r nar
rativ
es, d
epic
ted
in b
road
er te
rms.
Thi
s re
sear
ch s
cena
rio fo
r ‘A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty’ b
egin
s w
ith a
brie
f ove
rvie
w o
f con
ditio
ns in
201
7 an
d th
e hi
stor
ical
cha
nges
that
cre
ated
them
. It
then
exp
lore
s ho
w li
fe is
diff
eren
t in
this
P
erso
nal r
espo
nsib
ility
, pro
-fu
ture
in g
reat
er d
etai
l:i A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
activ
e ad
optio
n of
tech
nolo
gy,
•W
hat c
once
pts,
idea
s an
d pa
radi
gms
defin
e th
e w
orld
aro
und
us?
man
agem
ent o
f ris
k, a
bilit
y to
ab
sorb
impa
cts
of c
onfli
ct/w
ar
•H
ow d
o w
e re
late
to e
ach
othe
r – w
hat a
re th
e so
cial
stru
ctur
es a
nd
and
resi
lienc
e in
the
face
of
rela
tions
hips
that
link
peo
ple
and
orga
nisa
tions
? ec
onom
ic/s
ocia
l/oth
er s
hock
s •
How
do
we
conn
ect w
ith e
ach
othe
r -w
hat t
echn
olog
ies
conn
ect p
eopl
e,
plac
es a
nd th
ings
?•
Wha
t are
the
proc
esse
s an
d te
chno
logi
es th
roug
h w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
an
d se
rvic
es?
•H
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow d
o w
e ac
quire
and
use
th
em?
The
scen
ario
fini
shes
by
focu
sing
on
the
chan
ging
wor
kpla
ce, a
nd c
hang
ed h
ealth
an
d sa
fety
issu
es.
Dec
reas
ed U
K c
ompe
titiv
enes
s
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
78
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
‘A V
irtue
of N
eces
sity
’
Ove
rvie
w
As t
he 2
0th ce
ntur
y en
ded,
ana
lyst
s w
rote
‘202
0’ f
orec
asts
, sc
enar
ios,
and
vis
ions
– fo
r ci
ties,
pro
vinc
es, a
nd c
ount
ries;
fo
r com
pani
es, a
genc
ies,
and
ent
ire s
ecto
rs; a
nd fo
r spe
cies
, ec
osys
tem
s, a
nd p
lane
tary
dyn
amic
s.
From
the
vant
age
of
2017
– w
ithin
hai
ling
dist
ance
of 2
020
–
Brita
in n
ow r
esem
bles
one
gre
at s
easi
de t
own.
M
ore
and
mor
e U
K c
omm
uniti
es –
eve
n ci
ties
– co
nsis
t of
old
er
peop
le, n
eedi
ng s
ervi
ces
mor
e th
an c
onsu
mer
goo
ds.
The
loca
l ec
onom
y pr
ovid
es t
he s
ervi
ces,
and
whi
le g
oods
are
im
porte
d, c
onsu
mer
s no
w b
uy f
or d
urab
ility
and
exte
nded
us
e lif
e.
As t
radi
tiona
l in
dust
ries
decl
ined
, yo
ung
wor
kers
st
arte
d em
igra
ting
and
look
ing
else
whe
re f
or e
mpl
oym
ent.
With
fe
wer
pe
ople
su
ppor
ting
mor
e el
derly
an
d la
rge
corp
orat
ions
rel
ocat
ing
to A
sia,
the
eco
nom
y co
ntra
cted
. En
trepr
eneu
rial
activ
ities
ar
e sm
alle
r in
sc
ope;
m
ore
busi
ness
in
itiat
ives
ar
e lo
cal,
resu
lting
in
le
ss
wea
lth
gene
ratio
n na
tiona
lly.
The
gap
betw
een
‘hav
es’
and
‘hav
e-no
ts’
has
wid
ened
. So
ciet
y as
a
who
le
has
look
ed
for
way
s to
re
-tren
ch.
Incr
easi
ngly
, pe
ople
are
cho
osin
g to
rej
ect
cons
umer
ism
in
favo
ur o
f a
shift
tow
ards
inc
reas
ed s
elf-s
uffic
ienc
y. T
hose
w
ho
rem
ain
form
, in
on
e se
nse,
m
ore
tight
ly
knit
com
mun
ities
, w
hich
are
mor
e fo
cuse
d on
sel
f-rel
ianc
e th
an
the
com
mun
ities
of 2
007.
W
hile
this
cer
tain
ly m
eans
a g
ain
for
sust
aina
bilit
y, i
t is
mor
e th
e se
lf-re
lianc
e of
the
war
ga
rden
tha
n th
e ec
o-tri
be.
Non
ethe
less
, th
e av
alan
che
of
data
con
firm
ing
glob
al w
arm
ing
did
acce
lera
te th
e gr
owth
of
envi
ronm
enta
l val
ues,
as
did
soci
al a
nd b
usin
ess
stra
tegi
es
pion
eere
d by
cha
nge
orga
nisa
tions
suc
h as
Clin
ton’
s G
loba
l In
itiat
ives
in 2
006.
Peop
le n
ow t
ake
grea
ter
resp
onsi
bilit
y fo
r th
eir
own
wel
l-be
ing
and
for
the
wel
l-bei
ng o
f th
eir
envi
ronm
ent.
Wha
t bo
des
wel
l for
a fu
ture
revi
talis
atio
n of
UK
com
petit
iven
ess
is
a na
tiona
l moo
d of
adv
entu
re:
Brito
ns a
re re
spon
ding
to th
e cu
rren
t ch
alle
nges
with
res
ilienc
e an
d cr
eativ
ity,
wor
king
to
geth
er t
o in
nova
te a
nd c
reat
e ne
w b
usin
esse
s an
d re
new
th
eir c
omm
uniti
es.
Rec
ent H
isto
ry (2
007
– 20
17)
2007
: O
utso
urci
ng w
as a
sen
sitiv
e is
sue
even
bef
ore
the
mille
nniu
m,
but
prim
arily
for
man
ufac
turin
g.
Even
in 2
007,
m
any
inno
vativ
e in
dust
ries
wer
e m
ovin
g to
che
aper
loca
les.
O
ther
s w
ere
relo
catin
g th
eir
rese
arch
an
d de
velo
pmen
t ce
ntre
s to
th
e BR
IC
(Bra
zil,
Rus
sia,
In
dia
and
Chi
na)
coun
tries
. Th
is s
trate
gy o
ffere
d th
e co
mpe
titiv
e ad
vant
age
of a
hig
hly
educ
ated
wor
kfor
ce a
vaila
ble
at a
sig
nific
ant c
ost
savi
ngs,
giv
en c
urre
ncy
and
cost
of l
ivin
g di
ffere
nces
. It
also
pu
t pr
oduc
tion
clos
er t
o th
e C
hine
se c
onsu
mer
. W
ith t
he
grow
th o
f di
stan
ce l
earn
ing,
edu
catio
n ce
ntre
s be
gan
a si
mila
r re
loca
tion.
In
crea
sing
ly t
he b
est
engi
neer
ing
and
scie
nce
scho
ols
cam
e to
be
in A
sia,
as
dem
and
for
scie
nce
and
tech
nolo
gy d
egre
es in
the
UK
ero
ded.
ii
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
79
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
As t
he d
ecad
e pr
ogre
ssed
, it
beca
me
clea
r U
K b
usin
esse
s ha
d in
suffi
cien
tly
addr
esse
d th
e m
arke
t op
portu
nitie
s em
ergi
ng in
Asi
a.
Whi
le B
ritis
h bu
sine
sses
wer
e st
rong
in
man
y se
ctor
s,
othe
r bu
sine
sses
w
ere
sim
ply
bette
r. Em
ergi
ng e
cono
mie
s pr
oduc
ed b
asic
con
sum
er g
oods
mor
e ch
eapl
y; S
outh
Kor
ea a
nd I
ndia
wer
e sh
owin
g si
gns
of
outp
erfo
rmin
g th
e U
K i
n bo
th i
nfor
mat
ion
hard
war
e an
d so
ftwar
e pr
oduc
tion.
2009
: In
a b
id to
incr
ease
bot
h ef
ficie
ncy
and
sust
aina
bilit
y,
Gov
ernm
ent
effo
rts
to
push
co
nser
vatio
n an
d re
cycl
ing
redo
uble
d.
The
25%
rec
yclin
g ta
rget
was
hit
early
, in
2009
. Pu
blic
op
inio
n in
crea
sing
ly
supp
orte
d su
stai
nabi
lity
initi
ativ
es, b
ut th
e gr
owin
g se
lf-in
tere
st in
per
sona
l wel
l-bei
ng
and
a co
mfo
rtabl
e en
viro
nmen
t se
emed
to
er
ode
entre
pren
euria
l ac
tiviti
es i
n 20
th ce
ntur
y in
dust
ries.
Pu
blic
co
ncer
n ab
out
clim
ate
chan
ge h
it a
new
hig
h w
ith B
ritai
n’s
first
cas
es o
f Wes
t Nile
Viru
s.
The
gove
rnm
ent d
id r
espo
nd
effe
ctiv
ely
to th
e su
bseq
uent
clu
ster
of i
nfec
tions
, and
ther
e w
ere
no
fata
litie
s,
but
the
cris
is
did
dam
age
publ
ic
conf
iden
ce in
thei
r day
-to-d
ay e
nviro
nmen
t as
heal
thy.
2011
: By
the
2011
Par
liam
enta
ry e
lect
ions
, mor
e an
d m
ore
spec
ial
inte
rest
par
ties
wer
e vy
ing
for
seat
s.
The
polit
ical
he
at
gene
rate
d de
mon
stra
tions
, ra
ce
riots
an
d ci
vil
diso
bedi
ence
. Sp
ecia
l in
tere
st g
roup
s lo
bbie
d to
exp
and
lifes
tyle
ph
arm
aceu
tical
s as
w
ell,
crea
ting
our
mod
ern
‘sup
er-a
thle
tes’
with
ove
r th
e co
unte
r hu
man
per
form
ance
en
hanc
emen
t re
gim
es.
In a
sur
pris
e m
ove
for
the
usua
lly
cons
erva
tive
Inte
rnat
iona
l Oly
mpi
c C
omm
ittee
, the
pro
posa
l fo
r th
e fir
st
Hum
an
Perfo
rman
ce
Enha
nced
O
lym
pics
, m
irror
ing
the
Para
lym
pics
, was
pas
sed.
2013
: Th
e he
at g
ener
ated
by
the
2011
ele
ctio
n sm
ould
ers
on, s
inge
ing
UK
and
Eur
opea
n bu
sine
ss c
omm
uniti
es.
The
poun
d fe
ll,
impo
rts
soar
ed
and
expo
rts
suffe
red.
Th
e sp
ectre
of s
tagf
latio
n, lo
ng th
ough
t to
have
bee
n er
adic
ated
, lo
omed
onc
e m
ore
as th
e ec
onom
y co
ntra
cted
, with
onl
y th
e ec
onom
ic s
ucce
ss o
f th
e O
lym
pics
kee
ping
tha
t pa
rticu
lar
drag
on a
t ba
y.
Anti-
regu
lato
ry f
eelin
gs i
n bu
sine
ss a
nd
indu
stria
l sec
tors
sur
ged.
Sp
ecia
l int
eres
t lo
bbyi
ng f
or t
he
UK
to p
ull o
ut o
f the
EU
inte
nsifi
ed.
On
a po
sitiv
e no
te, t
he
Oly
mpi
cs a
lso
spur
red
a re
surg
ence
of
inte
rest
in
spor
ts,
fitne
ss, a
nd p
hysi
cal p
ursu
its.
Link
ed w
ith th
e gr
owin
g fo
cus
on p
erso
nal
wel
lnes
s, t
his
lifes
tyle
shi
ft pu
t pa
id t
o th
e ob
esity
epi
dem
ic.
2015
: D
uty
on b
iofu
els
was
rem
oved
as
publ
ic c
once
rn o
n cl
imat
e ch
ange
con
tinue
d to
spi
ral
– an
d in
a r
elat
ed
deve
lopm
ent,
Brita
in’s
env
ironm
enta
l cam
paig
ners
won
thei
r fir
st s
eats
in
Parli
amen
t. M
ore
hots
pots
eru
pted
on
the
glob
al s
tage
; in
res
pons
e to
the
soc
ial
disl
ocat
ion
and
conf
lict
in t
he C
auca
sus,
cal
ls g
rew
for
the
int
rodu
ctio
n of
co
mpu
lsor
y on
e-ye
ar p
ublic
ser
vice
for
you
ng a
dults
, in
ei
ther
a m
ilitar
y su
ppor
t or h
uman
itaria
n ca
paci
ty.
2017
: Th
e U
K b
egin
s its
mov
e in
to th
e ex
perie
nce
econ
omy
with
a f
ocus
on
the
tech
nolo
gies
and
act
iviti
es o
f w
elln
ess.
Br
itish
in
vent
ors
crea
te
brea
kthr
ough
s in
em
bedd
ed
com
putin
g (h
uman
-mac
hine
in
terfa
ce)
and
augm
ente
d co
gniti
on; b
ioni
c he
art c
ompo
nent
s; a
nd h
uman
per
form
ance
en
hanc
emen
t bi
oche
mic
als.
Br
itish
des
igne
rs le
vera
ge t
he
UK’
s di
vers
e cu
ltura
l her
itage
and
env
ironm
enta
l ric
hnes
s in
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
a gr
een
appr
oach
to
sust
aina
bilit
y an
d he
alth
: ae
sthe
tic
nece
ssity
of
su
stai
nabl
e liv
ing.
Th
e cu
rrent
ec
onom
ic
asce
ticis
m.
cons
train
ts m
erel
y un
derli
ne th
at.
In-D
epth
Exp
lora
tion
Def
ine:
wha
t con
cept
s, id
eas,
par
adig
ms,
and
val
ues
defin
e th
is w
orld
?
Rel
ate:
ho
w d
o pe
ople
rel
ate
to e
ach
othe
r –
wha
t are
the
soci
al
stru
ctur
es
and
rela
tions
hips
th
at
link
peop
le
and
orga
nisa
tions
?
Peop
le f
ocus
mor
e on
qua
lity
of li
fe, o
n bo
th in
divi
dual
and
en
viro
nmen
tal l
evel
s. A
chie
ving
and
mai
ntai
ning
that
qua
lity
is w
idel
y co
nsid
ered
a m
atte
r of
per
sona
l res
pons
ibilit
y; th
e ch
alle
nge
is a
t onc
e to
o pe
rson
al a
nd lo
cal,
and
too
com
plex
an
d pe
rvas
ive
for
gove
rnm
ents
to
ad
dres
s ef
fect
ivel
y.
Rat
her
than
rel
ying
on
the
gove
rnm
ent
as t
heir
trust
ed
agen
t, in
divi
dual
s re
ly o
n th
emse
lves
.iii Bu
t not
them
selv
es
alon
e;
peop
le h
ave
inte
rnal
ised
the
par
adig
ms
of s
elf-
orga
nisi
ng c
ompl
exity
and
ope
n so
urce
com
mun
ities
fro
m
21st
ce
ntur
y sc
ienc
e an
d so
ftwar
e.
Org
anis
ing
supp
ort
grou
ps,
polit
ical
act
ion
grou
ps,
and
nece
ssar
y re
sour
ces
– w
heth
er lo
cally
, nat
iona
lly, o
r glo
bally
– is
sim
ple
refle
x.
And
it’s
a ne
cess
ary
refle
x, a
s to
o m
any
peop
le s
cram
ble
to
mak
e en
ds
mee
t. Th
e sc
arci
ty
min
dset
fu
sed
with
en
viro
nmen
tal c
once
rns
in a
bac
klas
h ag
ains
t the
thro
waw
ay
cons
umer
cul
ture
. Pe
ople
are
mak
ing
do w
ith “
redu
ce,
re-
use,
rec
ycle
, ” a
wor
ldvi
ew m
ade
effic
ient
and
eve
n so
ciab
le
with
eBa
y an
d Fr
eecy
cle.
It’
s th
e ne
w w
ar g
arde
n in
the
gl
obal
eco
nom
ic a
nd e
nviro
nmen
tal b
attle
zon
e. T
his
shift
is
suffi
cien
tly
perv
asiv
e th
at
plan
ned
obso
lesc
ence
m
ay
beco
me
illega
l by
2020
, not
mer
ely
a ta
rget
of c
onsu
mer
ire.
Ev
ery
new
st
ream
of
en
viro
nmen
tal
data
su
ppor
ts
the
Gov
ernm
ent r
esou
rces
are
pre
ssur
ed b
y ag
eing
, of b
oth
the
popu
lace
and
the
infra
stru
ctur
e. T
axes
hav
e ris
en in
the
last
de
cade
, bu
t w
ith a
sla
ck e
cono
my,
the
rev
enue
pie
has
n’t
kept
pac
e w
ith c
rises
. Bo
th n
atio
nal
agen
cies
and
loc
al
auth
oriti
es
stru
ggle
to
re
prio
ritis
e am
ong
equa
lly
criti
cal
need
s.
Res
earc
h an
d de
velo
pmen
t fu
nds
wer
e sh
ifted
to
prop
up
pens
ion
fund
s; e
duca
tiona
l and
you
th p
rogr
ams
lost
ou
t to
sen
ior
care
. An
inc
reas
ed s
ense
of
pers
onal
and
co
mm
unity
re
spon
sibi
lity
repl
aced
th
e ‘a
nti-h
oody
’ an
d AS
BO c
ampa
igns
of
ten
year
s ag
o w
ith a
tec
hnol
ogic
ally
-en
hanc
ed,
soci
ally
ne
twor
ked
vers
ion
of
‘nei
ghbo
urho
od
wat
ch’.
Whi
le a
sav
ing
for
gove
rnm
ent,
the
dow
nsid
e is
un
equa
l co
mm
unity
sec
urity
, as
wea
lthie
r ne
ighb
ourh
oods
hi
re p
rivat
e se
curit
y co
mpa
nies
, as
wel
l as
a d
isqu
ietin
g em
erge
nce
of v
igila
ntis
m.
The
latte
r ha
s al
so c
ontri
bute
d to
th
e in
crea
se
in
fring
e po
litic
al
grou
ps
capt
urin
g Pa
rliam
enta
ry s
eats
.
Glo
bal
rela
tions
hips
hav
e re
-focu
ssed
: Th
e Pa
cific
Era
da
wne
d in
the
2010
s. I
ndia
, Chi
na, S
outh
Kor
ea, S
inga
pore
an
d ot
her
Asia
n co
untri
es a
re t
he n
ew g
ravi
ty w
ells
of
the
glob
al e
cono
my,
and
of
glob
al g
eopo
litic
s as
wel
l. Br
itish
bu
sine
sses
are
stil
l pla
ying
cat
ch-u
p in
Asi
an m
arke
ts v
is-à
-vi
s ot
her W
este
rn e
cono
mie
s, a
fter s
tarti
ng to
o sl
owly
off
the
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
80
81
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
bloc
k.
In 2
017
the
UK
is n
ot g
loba
lly c
ompe
titiv
e ei
ther
in
the
indu
stria
l, se
rvic
e,
or
info
rmat
ion
sect
ors.
Br
itain
’s
econ
omic
re
viva
l is
, in
stea
d,
bein
g bu
ilt
by
expe
rienc
e ec
onom
y en
trepr
eneu
rs
focu
sed
on
min
d/bo
dy/s
pirit
pr
oduc
ts
and
serv
ices
fo
r th
e hi
gh-te
ch,
high
-touc
h co
nsum
ers
of 2
020.
Brita
in’s
age
ing
soci
ety
is a
n un
bala
nced
soc
iety
. Th
e yo
unge
r ge
nera
tion
are
serfs
to th
eir
seni
ors,
not
onl
y in
tax
supp
ort,
but
in d
irect
inc
ome
cont
ribut
ions
as
wel
l. In
the
cu
rren
t cl
imat
e of
eco
nom
ic u
ncer
tain
ty,
youn
g ad
ults
hea
d in
to m
atur
ity s
addl
ed w
ith e
duca
tiona
l and
con
sum
er d
ebt.
And
not
mer
ely
finan
cial
deb
ts:
man
y ca
rry a
‘he
alth
deb
t’ ge
nera
ted
by t
he s
tress
of
carin
g fo
r th
eir
pare
nts
and
wor
king
mul
tiple
job
s to
cov
er e
xpen
ses.
Th
e em
ergi
ng
yout
h dr
ain
to A
sia
com
es a
s no
sur
pris
e, a
s yo
ung
wor
kers
op
t fo
r hi
gher
pay
ing
jobs
ove
rsea
s.
It ta
kes
them
aw
ay
from
the
ir fa
milie
s, b
ut t
hey
ratio
nalis
e th
at t
he e
nhan
ced
finan
cial
sup
port
they
can
offe
r bal
ance
s th
eir a
bsen
ce.
With
the
you
th d
rain
tak
ing
a si
gnifi
cant
per
cent
age
of t
he
skille
d un
der-
forti
es o
vers
eas,
mor
e O
APs
are
orga
nisi
ng
self-
help
an
d su
ppor
t ne
twor
ks.
Elde
r vo
lunt
eeris
m
is
grow
ing,
whi
ch h
as t
he d
oubl
e be
nefit
of
prov
idin
g lo
cal
com
mun
ities
a v
olun
teer
poo
l of
exp
erie
nced
lab
our,
and
also
kee
ping
the
elde
rly a
ctiv
e an
d so
cial
ly e
ngag
ed.
In s
hort,
in
the
last
dec
ade
the
Briti
sh f
amily
has
bot
h im
plod
ed a
nd e
xplo
ded.
Ta
king
per
sona
l res
pons
ibilit
y fo
r th
e w
ell-b
eing
of
thei
r pa
rent
s an
d re
lativ
es h
as p
ushe
d so
me
fam
ilies
into
mor
e co
hesi
ve,
clos
e-kn
it st
ruct
ures
that
ar
e in
turn
tied
mor
e cl
osel
y in
to lo
cal s
ocia
l and
com
mun
ity
netw
orks
. O
n th
e ot
her
hand
, so
me
fam
ilies
have
‘e
xplo
ded’
, go
ing
glob
al,
with
you
nger
mem
bers
tra
ckin
g ec
onom
ic
hots
pots
in
tern
atio
nally
. Ev
en
thes
e fa
milie
s,
how
ever
, re
mai
n vi
rtual
ly
tight
-kni
t, w
ith
fam
ily
intra
nets
fe
atur
ing
priv
ate
web
-cam
s an
d am
bien
t he
alth
se
nsor
s en
ablin
g ki
ds to
kee
p a
cons
tant
eye
on
thei
r pa
rent
s’ w
ell-
bein
g –
and
vice
ver
sa.
Con
nect
: ho
w
do
we
conn
ect
with
ea
ch
othe
r -
wha
t te
chno
logi
es c
onne
ct p
eopl
e, p
lace
s, a
nd th
ings
?
Littl
e di
stin
ctio
n ex
ists
now
bet
wee
n m
edia
and
per
sona
l co
mm
unic
atio
ns, b
etw
een
a ce
ll ph
one,
an
Inte
rnet
term
inal
, an
d a
hom
e th
eatre
. Th
e pe
rvas
ive
glob
al w
ifi m
esh
of
ubiq
uito
us c
ompu
ting
mea
ns t
hat
one
Chi
nese
sch
oolg
irl’s
vi
deob
log
mas
h up
of
liv
e co
ncer
t fo
otag
e,
orig
inal
an
imat
ion,
and
cel
l-pho
ne-c
aptu
red
com
men
tary
is
a U
K
view
er’s
ind
ie d
ocum
enta
ry.
Expa
t w
orke
rs o
vers
eas
can
catc
h th
e gl
obal
and
Mum
bai
even
ing
new
s ro
undu
p ov
er
dinn
er, s
eam
less
ly in
terc
ut w
ith li
ve w
ebca
m fo
otag
e of
Mum
an
d G
rand
ma
havi
ng lu
nch
in th
e ga
rden
in B
uxto
n.
Che
ap,
wid
ely
avai
labl
e se
nsor
tag
s an
d bu
ttons
are
link
ed
to w
ifi n
etw
orks
. H
ome
heal
th m
onito
ring
– yo
ur b
ody
and
your
life
as
a bi
osci
ence
pro
ject
– i
s be
com
ing
com
mon
. Th
e gr
owth
in h
ome
heal
th te
lem
edic
ine
has
been
a b
oon
for
thos
e w
ho c
an a
fford
the
sys
tem
. It
redu
ces
cost
s an
d in
crea
ses
the
sens
e of
sec
urity
for
the
eld
erly
wis
hing
to
exte
nd t
heir
inde
pend
ence
. Th
ese
syst
ems
also
pro
vide
ho
me
envi
ronm
enta
l te
lem
onito
ring,
ena
blin
g ho
meo
wne
rs
to m
onito
r not
just
env
ironm
enta
l con
ditio
ns –
air
qual
ity a
nd
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
82
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
cont
amin
atio
n, w
ater
qua
lity,
loc
al a
llerg
en c
ount
, an
d U
V
cond
ition
s –
but a
lso
leve
ls o
f res
ourc
e us
e in
thei
r ho
mes
. H
omeo
wne
rs c
an m
icro
-man
age
thei
r eco
logi
cal f
ootp
rint o
n a
daily
, hou
rly, o
r min
ute-
by-m
inut
e ba
sis.
The
sam
e se
nsor
ta
gs
have
in
crea
sed
the
sens
e of
co
mm
unity
sec
urity
, as
mor
e ne
ighb
ourh
oods
use
the
m t
o m
onito
r su
spec
ted
loca
l ne
’er-
do-w
ells
. In
evita
bly,
th
is
ASBO
rep
lace
men
t has
spa
wne
d an
und
ergr
ound
mar
ket i
n se
nsor
tag
hack
ing.
Cre
ate:
wha
t ar
e th
e pr
oces
ses
and
tech
nolo
gies
thr
ough
w
hich
we
crea
te g
oods
and
ser
vice
s?
The
post
-rece
ssio
n ec
onom
y of
201
7 fe
atur
es f
ewer
job
s an
d hi
gher
un
empl
oym
ent.
Labo
ur
is s
hifti
ng i
nto
new
se
ctor
s –
and
emig
ratin
g to
the
Asia
n ec
onom
ic n
exus
. Th
is
crea
tes
a vi
ciou
s ci
rcle
; as
Brit
ish
com
pani
es l
ose
skille
d la
bour
loc
ally
, th
ey o
utso
urce
inno
vatio
n an
d pr
oduc
tion
to
Asia
as
wel
l. Th
e m
ore
com
pani
es lo
cate
thei
r exc
iting
jobs
ov
erse
as,
the
mor
e sk
illed
wor
kers
lo
ok
over
seas
fo
r po
sitio
ns
– w
here
th
ey
com
pete
ag
ains
t of
ten
bette
r-ed
ucat
ed fo
reig
n w
orke
rs.
Briti
sh
entre
pren
eurs
ha
ve
turn
ed
to
the
expe
rienc
e ec
onom
y to
rev
italis
e gr
owth
. N
ew v
entu
res
com
bine
the
st
reng
ths
of
thos
e hi
stor
ical
re
sour
ces
that
su
ppor
t U
K
tour
ism
– a
nd U
K fi
lm a
nd th
eatre
– w
ith B
ritai
n’s
aest
hetic
st
reng
ths
in a
rts a
nd d
esig
n.
Smal
l bus
ines
s ow
ners
hav
e fo
cuss
ed
on
the
new
gr
owth
m
arke
t fo
r gr
een
min
d/bo
dy/s
pirit
pro
duct
s, c
ater
ing
to th
e he
ight
ened
inte
rest
in p
erso
nal
wel
lnes
s.
Ret
reat
s, s
pa b
reak
s, a
nd ‘
who
le
pers
on’
life
man
agem
ent
clas
ses
inte
grat
e no
t on
ly e
co-
frien
dly
heal
th p
rodu
cts,
but
als
o re
gion
al o
rgan
ic s
peci
alty
fo
ods.
Lo
cally
uni
que
and
sust
aina
ble
‘neo
-cra
fts’
fit w
ell
with
tou
rism
and
the
cul
ture
tra
de.
As l
ocal
pro
duct
ion
cont
ribut
es to
the
ir in
trins
ic v
alue
, th
ese
busi
ness
es c
anno
t by
de
finiti
on
be
outs
ourc
ed.
Thes
e em
ergi
ng
sign
s of
ec
onom
ic r
evita
lisat
ion
are
prom
isin
g, b
ut t
he l
ocal
eco
-w
elln
ess
sect
or i
s lim
ited
by i
ts s
treng
th a
s a
com
mun
ity-
base
d ac
tivity
. It
rem
ains
too
smal
l to
repl
ace
the
indu
stria
l se
ctor
inco
me
Brita
in h
as lo
st.
Larg
er i
nitia
tives
are
em
ergi
ng w
here
gre
en r
espo
nsib
ility
links
to h
igh
tech
nolo
gy.
UK
ven
ture
cap
ital h
as s
uppo
rted
loca
l de
sign
of
‘sm
art
envi
ronm
ent’
who
le h
ealth
sys
tem
s.
Thes
e ap
ply
self-
orga
nisi
ng s
yste
m d
esig
ns t
o pe
rvas
ive
sens
or n
etw
orks
tha
t lin
k ho
me
heal
th m
onito
ring
syst
ems
with
mob
ile h
eart/
stre
ss m
onito
rs a
nd w
ork
envi
ronm
ent
mon
itors
. Th
is im
mer
sive
‘wel
lnes
s w
eb’ a
llow
s em
ploy
ees
and
smal
l bu
sine
sses
to
wor
k to
geth
er t
o en
sure
wor
ker
heal
th fr
om h
ome
to o
ffice
and
bac
k ag
ain.
Con
sum
e: h
ow d
o w
e co
nsum
e go
ods
and
serv
ices
– h
ow
do w
e ac
quire
and
use
them
?
Brito
ns a
re c
onsu
min
g le
ss p
er p
erso
n w
ith e
ach
pass
ing
year
. 20
17 m
ay g
o on
rec
ord
as t
he y
ear
the
thro
waw
ay
cultu
re e
nded
. Pe
ople
try
to
mak
e th
e m
ost
of a
ll th
eir
belo
ngin
gs, e
ncou
ragi
ng m
anuf
actu
rers
to s
tress
eas
y re
pair
and
the
hard
war
e eq
uiva
lent
of ‘
mas
h up
s’ -
mix
and
mat
ch
appl
ianc
e co
mpo
nent
s.
This
tre
nd h
as m
ade
eBay
and
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
83
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
Free
cycl
e m
ore
popu
lar
than
m
any
high
st
reet
ch
ains
. Pe
ople
ar
e al
so
liter
ally
co
nsum
ing
less
: th
e ob
esity
ep
idem
ic h
as p
eake
d.
The
imm
ersi
ve m
edia
exp
osur
e to
th
e ex
hila
ratio
n of
fitn
ess
exem
plifi
ed b
y O
lym
pic
athl
etes
he
lped
. In
ad
ditio
n,
the
new
H
PE
Oly
mpi
cs
publ
icly
de
mon
stra
ted
the
hum
an p
erfo
rman
ce in
nova
tions
tha
t ca
n ai
d w
illpow
er a
lone
in h
elpi
ng in
divi
dual
s ac
hiev
e th
at ‘n
ew
svel
te y
ou’.
Fina
lly,
risin
g en
viro
nmen
tal a
war
enes
s m
ade
cons
umer
s no
t onl
y m
ore
likel
y to
ask
wha
t was
in fo
od, b
ut
also
to a
sk w
hat t
he e
nviro
nmen
tal a
nd s
ocia
l con
sequ
ence
s of
fo
od
prod
uctio
n w
ere.
Th
e O
xfam
‘c
ompa
re
thes
e di
nner
s’ a
d ca
mpa
ign
for
thei
r co
ntin
uing
wor
k in
fam
ine-
pron
e Af
rican
reg
ions
res
onat
ed w
ith m
any,
esp
ecia
lly a
fter
Sir
Jam
ie O
liver
’s r
ivet
ing
spec
ial b
road
cast
und
erlin
ing
the
prob
lem
.
Wat
er
shor
tage
s ar
e m
uch
less
co
mm
on.
Enha
nced
en
viro
nmen
tal
awar
enes
s m
eans
gr
eate
r ca
re
in
wat
er
usag
e at
the
tap
. It
also
pro
duce
d a
spec
ial i
nter
est
grou
p th
at
pres
sure
d th
e go
vern
men
t to
rai
se
fines
fo
r w
ater
ut
ilitie
s th
at
allo
wed
m
ore
than
5%
sy
stem
le
akag
e to
co
ntin
ue m
ore
than
thre
e m
onth
s.
Pars
imon
y is
all
in b
asic
re
sour
ce
use.
C
onsu
mer
s ar
e al
so
supp
ortin
g a
new
sc
hem
e to
tap
the
mor
e th
an 3
00 y
ears
’ wor
th o
f co
al s
till
unde
rgro
und
via
gasi
ficat
ion,
whi
ch d
oes
not r
equi
re m
iner
s.
Biof
uels
ha
ve
seen
ex
plos
ive
grow
th
sinc
e th
e ca
taly
st
inno
vatio
ns
earli
er
in
the
deca
de;
alte
rnat
ive
fuel
s ar
e di
spla
cing
pet
rol i
n pe
rson
al tr
ansp
ort.
Focu
s on
the
Cha
ngin
g W
orkp
lace
Brita
in h
as fe
wer
larg
e in
dust
ries
and
larg
e co
rpor
atio
ns th
at
stan
dard
ise
offic
e pr
actic
es a
nd e
nviro
nmen
ts t
hrou
ghou
t th
eir
bran
ches
. Th
e pr
olife
ratio
n of
sm
all b
usin
esse
s, lo
cal
busi
ness
es, a
nd a
t-hom
e bu
sine
sses
cre
ates
wid
ely
vary
ing
wor
k en
viro
nmen
ts.
The
line
betw
een
wor
k an
d ho
me
cont
inue
s to
er
ode.
Th
e in
crea
sed
valu
e pl
aced
on
ac
hiev
ing
wor
k/lif
e ba
lanc
e is
cou
nter
ed b
y la
bour
nee
ds
and
man
y pe
ople
’s n
eed
to w
ork
two
jobs
, or
one
job
in
conj
unct
ion
with
eld
er c
are
or s
elf-s
uffic
ienc
y ta
sks.
Wor
k at
ho
me
allo
ws
mor
e se
amle
ss in
tegr
atio
n of
eld
er c
are,
but
it
also
low
ers
prod
uctiv
ity d
ue to
the
dist
ract
ion
quot
ient
.
One
em
ergi
ng
reas
on
for
optim
ism
, ho
wev
er,
is
the
incr
easi
ng t
rend
for
sm
all b
usin
esse
s to
sha
re o
ffice
spa
ce
and
supp
ort
staf
f, le
vera
ging
dy
nam
ical
ly
adm
inis
tere
d re
sour
ces
to f
unct
ion
mor
e ef
ficie
ntly
and
par
sim
onio
usly
.iv
Impl
emen
ting
‘gre
en
offic
e’
desi
gn
is
also
ea
sier
w
hen
reso
urce
s ar
e sh
ared
. Le
ss w
aste
and
low
er o
pera
ting
cost
s al
low
the
se o
ffice
coo
pera
tives
to in
vest
mor
e in
cre
atin
g a
heal
thy
wor
kpla
ce e
nviro
nmen
t.
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y
With
reg
ard
to h
ealth
and
saf
ety,
fear
and
unc
erta
inty
hav
e dr
iven
peo
ple
to th
ink,
“If I
don
’t do
it fo
r mys
elf,
no-o
ne e
lse
will
do i
t fo
r m
e. ”
It’s
a br
ave
new
wor
ld o
f pe
rson
al
resp
onsi
bilit
y, d
riven
as
muc
h by
gal
lopi
ng t
echn
olog
ical
pr
ogre
ss
as
from
an
y in
crea
se
in
indi
vidu
al
or
soci
al
enlig
hten
men
t. D
etec
tion
and
prev
entio
n of
ill-h
ealth
cau
sal
Thes
e Sc
enar
ios
wer
e pr
oduc
ed b
y In
finite
Fut
ures
wor
king
with
SA
MI C
onsu
lting
and
the
Hea
lth a
nd S
afet
y La
bora
tory
. The
y ar
e in
tend
ed to
stim
ulat
e th
ough
t and
are
in n
o w
ay p
redi
ctio
ns o
f the
futu
re. T
hey
do n
ot re
pres
ent H
SE
vie
ws
on h
ow th
e fu
ture
may
dev
elop
.
84
HS
E S
cena
rios
Pro
ject
: A
Virt
ue o
f Nec
essi
ty
fact
ors
is th
e ke
y. H
ealth
age
ncie
s ar
e m
ovin
g in
to th
e ro
les
of c
oach
es a
nd a
dvis
ors.
Th
ey p
rovi
de r
esou
rces
tha
t en
able
peo
ple
to ta
ke r
espo
nsib
ility
for
thei
r ow
n w
ell-b
eing
m
ore
effe
ctiv
ely.
Imm
ersi
ve m
onito
ring
syst
ems
and
‘wel
lnes
s w
ebs’
allo
w
mor
e ef
ficie
nt m
onito
ring
of h
ealth
and
stre
ss i
ndic
ator
s th
roug
hout
an
indi
vidu
al’s
day
. Bu
sine
sses
and
em
ploy
ees
who
ca
n af
ford
th
e sy
stem
fin
d th
at
it no
t on
ly
aids
pr
oduc
tivity
, but
als
o re
duce
s em
ploy
ee h
ealth
cos
ts.
As a
re
sult,
the
bel
l cu
rve
of w
orkp
lace
hea
lth a
nd s
afet
y ha
s w
iden
ed a
nd f
latte
ned;
we
see
mor
e ex
empl
ary
prac
tices
, bu
t al
so m
ore
repo
rts o
f sm
all b
usin
esse
s at
tem
ptin
g to
fly
un
der t
he re
gula
tory
rada
r to
save
cos
ts.
Man
y bu
sine
sses
hav
e si
mpl
y cu
t an
d ru
n.
Rec
essi
on-
indu
ced
pres
sure
s on
pro
fit m
argi
ns in
crea
sed
the
offs
horin
g of
inn
ovat
ion,
R&D
, an
d pr
oduc
tion
by t
hose
who
cou
ld
affo
rd
it.
This
w
as
wel
com
ed
by
som
e en
viro
nmen
tal
cam
paig
n gr
oups
, th
ough
by
no m
eans
all,
as
a m
eans
of
prot
ectin
g Br
itain
’s n
atur
al e
nviro
nmen
t fro
m e
xper
imen
tal o
r in
dust
rial d
isas
ters
. Th
e sl
uggi
sh e
cono
my
did
crea
te s
ome
barg
ains
for
over
seas
buy
ers,
with
Brit
ish
com
pani
es g
oing
ch
eapl
y.
How
ever
, th
eir
new
ove
rsea
s ow
ners
ten
ded
to
brin
g th
eir
own
attit
udes
and
app
roac
hes
to h
ealth
and
sa
fety
issu
es.
In s
ome
sect
ors
this
mat
tere
d lit
tle; i
n ot
hers
, a
lot.
Win
ners
and
Los
ers
The
win
ners
in 2
017
are
the
self-
suffi
cien
t, hi
gh-te
ch, g
reen
m
icro
-ene
rgy
prod
ucer
s an
d co
nsum
ers
in th
e w
ealth
ier r
ural
co
mm
uniti
es.
Land
owne
rs
in
thos
e co
mm
uniti
es
have
be
nefit
ed f
rom
the
incr
ease
d de
man
d fo
r la
nd f
or t
he s
elf-
suffi
cien
t life
styl
e. P
ensi
oner
s w
ho c
an a
fford
the
supp
ortiv
e te
chno
logy
are
bet
ter o
ff, a
s ar
e th
ose
who
bel
ong
to s
uppo
rt ne
twor
ks o
r ha
ve e
ither
suc
cess
ful
or d
evot
ed c
hild
ren
on
who
m
they
ca
n re
ly.
Priv
ate
secu
rity
com
pani
es
are
succ
eedi
ng,
as a
re s
mal
l bu
sine
sses
dev
elop
ing
wel
lnes
s pr
oduc
ts o
r ser
vice
s, e
spec
ially
thos
e th
at a
re lo
cally
uni
que.
D
igita
l m
edia
and
exp
erie
nce
econ
omy
entre
pren
eurs
are
be
ginn
ing
to r
e-es
tabl
ish
a na
me
for
Briti
sh d
esig
n.
In
polit
ics,
pro
porti
onal
rep
rese
ntat
ion
has
crea
ted
a liv
ely,
if
fragm
ente
d ar
ena
for
spec
ial i
nter
est
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. 11.
85
86
APPENDIX 3: SHORT FORM SCENARIOS
The short form or workshop scenarios are brief, illustrated and easy to read in five or ten minutes; they are designed for use in workshops.
87
88
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
The Digital Rose Gardenhealth and safety in the changing workplace
Leading article – Global Financial Tribune:
WiMax immersive edition – 1 December 2017
It’s official. Yesterday’s report from Work, Life and World tells us so. The roaring 1920s are back. And where do we go to taste the energy and innovation of those boom years of old? Well, believe it or not, to work.
The world of work is very different now from even five years ago. Technologies have advanced more in the last ten years than in the previous one hundred. Pervasive computing, immersive communications, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, and new materials are transforming production, offices, homes, our relationships, even ourselves. We are all explorers now: and we’ll take a little risk along the way. As for work-life balance, what about it? To quote last year’s Productivity Consortium’s ad campaign ‘Work? Life? It’s all living!’
We work ‘glocally’ – in small, high tech outfits doing global business – so where we work barely matters at all. Why should it when immersive communications – witness last week’s videophone sunglasses launch – can take you anywhere in the world in an instant? So we work at home or rent a desk at the neighbourhood office down the road. ‘Factories’ are cleaner, greener, self-monitoring, self-repairing.
Yes, it’s great to be at work as we near the roaring 2020s. Or it is if you’re one of the 50% working in the brave, new, risk-embracing world of biotechnology and innovation. For the rest of us, it’s not all good news.
We worry about keeping pace with developments and about what happens when systems collapse; we can build virtual friendships on-line but nothing really compensates for a chat at the coffee machine; and increasingly, we wonder if human performance enhancement technologies, both bionic and personality improving, are turning us into something else, something almost trans-human.
Others see a divide between those who work within the innovation dynamo and those who do not. Manufacturing jobs, contrary to predictions, are still very much around, albeit transformed by intelligent infrastructure. Building continues apace, particularly as the 2018 World Cup approaches and as docks are expanded to meet our ever-increasing import needs. These jobs can’t be done at home. And neither can some of the new jobs – sorting rubbish by hand for recycling may not be the most glamorous of occupations but over 150,000 of us now do it. In social occupations, we still need policemen to patrol our high streets – vastly changed as chain stores move online – and we still need carers for the elderly: with life expectancy now at 93 years and rising, we’ll need many more in the future.
The changing workplace has transformed the lives of millions for the better; for others, not at all; and some, for the worse. We’re heading for the roaring 2020s – but it’s not yet all coming up roses.
KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD
STRONG, INCREASING UK COMPETITIVENESS
ECONOMIC BOOMTIME
CULTURE OF PARTNERED RESPONSIBILTY
INTER-CONNECTED SOCIETY
SUSTAINABILITY: EFFICIENT, ELEGANT DESIGN
LOW-FOOTPRINT CONSUMPTION
IMMERSIVE COMPUTING & MEDIA
WORKPLACE IS EVERYWHERE
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
The Digital Rose Garden health and safety in the changing workplace
• First loyalties to digital social network and communities of interest;
• Focus on transcending the life / work conflict.
HEADLINES
Life?
The roaring 1920s are back.
Brain-Enhancing Drugs Boost Productivity
UK Brain Gain Boosts Innovation
Family sue over care home bionic suit accident
1 GB-wide broadband in 50% of UK homes
UK Net Hub down 2 hours after net attack; hackers get 10-year jail term
“Green de luxe”: eco-design is elegant and parsimonious.
The changing workplace has changed the lives of millions for the better
Assistive Devices, LADs): “Demand for our bionic limbs remains high and is rising now we’ve introduced a new leasing system for seniors.”
various Government agencies looking at the many ethical issues associated with the use of Human Performance Enhancement technologies in the workplace.”
Local authority employee RAHEEMA: “I just don’t know who is working and who is not.”
Health and safety representative STEVE: “WiFi remote safety inspections are a breeze, but we’re dealing with ever
ADMIRED PEOPLE
Ray Kurzweil
Philip Rosedale
VALUES
• Value exploration and creativity;
“Work? It’s all living!’
Virtuality Dependence tops sick note list.
Tonight I’m gonna party ‘cos I’m 99!
QUOTES AND METAPHORS
Not ‘shop ‘til you drop’ but ‘mod your bod’;
Worker SUE (Ex Air Host): “I’m gutted I lost my job to a robot, but now I work as a virtual holiday rep in Third Life/Westworld.”
Business Owner NEILL (of high tech company Limb
Employee representative TED: “I’m working closely with
increasing incidences of VRA (Virtual Reality Addiction).”
A THRIVING COMPANY
An SME with a small staff mixing locals and ‘knowledge nomads’, producing biomimetic clothing designs using genetically tailored bioluminescent textiles for the global market.
* These scenarios are intended to stimulate thought. They are in no way predictions of the future and do not represent HSE views on how the future may develop.
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
The Digital Rose Garden health and safety in the changing workplace
Partnered Responsibility A New Global Balance Sustainability Works
• Pro-active adoption of technology, management of • Globalised capital and BRIC economic strength; • Sustainability for design elegance and parsimony of system solutions;risk a partnership among individuals, business, and • Partnerships as emerging economies strengthen and
government; move to centre stage; • Embrace technology innovation, but take responsibility • Ability to absorb impacts of conflict/war, resilience in • UK Economy booming, generating innovative goods for impacts.
face of economic/social/ other shocks. and services; Workplace is Everywhere Inter-Connected Society • Labour force growing – ‘Knowledge nomads’ in-migrating: • Transformative high tech; • People are more politically engaged and unified – act UK is the place to be;
• “Glocal”: small enterprises do business globally;in partnership with government; • Offsets ageing of UK society;
• Workplace has exploded and been absorbed: it’s • Generations are more closely knit, and families are • Business initiatives succeed; everywhere;
more inter-knit with interest groups: the cyber- • Innovations based on biosciences, materials sciences, • Biosciences, new materials;extended family; design expertise – linked to CSR; small, nimble, global • An enhanced sense of connection to, and responsibility enterprises. • Ever more rapid technological advances as pace of
for, the national landscape and global environment. change outstrips development of social values, e.g., ethics. Low-Footprint Consumption
Immersive Computing • Avid consumers of experience, not consumer goods – Health and Safety Implicit
• Seamless, immersive digital data/media environment but buy high quality when they buy; • Workplace stressors/risks: stress from over-immersion;
(telecoms and computing networks; Wifi / RFID); • Designer food – but eco-friendly; • Home stressors/risks: over-augmentation; over-reliance
• Overlays the real world and everyone accesses it • Value parsimonious design resulting in resource on cyber social networks;
constantly. conservation; • Leisure stressors/risks: adrenalin overload;
Economic Boomtime • Low footprint holidays: Devon Riviera; • Attitude to H&S: a matter of exceeding congenital potential;
Increased UK competitiveness • Beyond health to HPE (Human Performance • H&S infrastructure: in partnership with peers and
• Harmonisation of regulations; differently abled in Enhancement) and augmentation; government; H&S built in at design phase, more
employment; incorporation of migrants; enterprise • But still widespread obesity. automated H&S monitoring and control;culture, expectation of well-being, and social cohesion.
• Extent of regulatory structure: HIGH
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
Boom and Blame health and safety in the changing workplace
Leading article – The Competitive Intelligencer:
from our database to your mobile PDA – 1 December 2017
Welcome, businesses of the world! A LSE economic survey has confirmed the UK as the world’s most supportive business environment. Low taxes and a minimal regulatory environment entice the world’s businesses to the UK free market. And in our 24/7/365 world, Britain needs to remain strongly competitive – the current economic woes of those nations that failed to keep pace with change are a daily reminder to us to do so. The world’s climate may be getting warmer, but the world’s markets are incandescent.
We’ve worked hard to become early adopters and rapid adapters. We made the most of our strengths, and business is booming in finances, business services, competitive intelligence, technical expertise, and a smaller but more competitive tourist industry. Enterprises are larger: our successful small companies have grown; less competitive companies are absorbed by larger firms. Large chunks of manufacturing have been outsourced, offshored or automated.
The job for life has gone and with it, many of the old
Biosciences have transformed teamwork and HR – companies can now evaluate candidates’ fit to corporate culture in terms of metabolism, personality, and vulnerability to workplace environments and stress. Health regimes can be tailored to our individual genetic profile, and supported by a wide array of sanctioned performance enhancement medicines. The latest new-hire perk, the HealthNano implantable health sensor, helps employees monitor their own health stats as well as productivity. For the individual, it’s preventative health care – for the company, it’s additional competitive edge. And it helps keep our 1 million workers aged over 65 healthy and at work. We can’t afford to lose them from the labour market – nor their skills.
Of course, more competition among companies means more competition within companies. We know life is losing to work under these conditions – while we can work anywhere, corporate security and privacy concerns keep most of us at the office, and at the office late: evening rush hour now falls between 8 and 10 pm. Yes, we’re still competitive, but how long can Britain’s workforce keep up this white-hot pace before blowing a collective gasket?
KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD
STRONG UK COMPETITIVENESS
ECONOMIC SUCCESS - CAN IT CONTINUE?
BLAME CULTURE
COMPETITIVE SOCIETY
STRONG CONSUMPTION
SUSTAINABILITY DELAYED
HIGH-TECH WORKPLACE | GENETIC IDs
INVASIVE COMPUTING
bonds of employer loyalty. Average tenure in post has slipped to 4 years. Most workers, across all sectors, are on short, fixed-term contracts. Being dismissed is nothing unusual. It’s just something that happens.
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
Boom and Blame health and safety in the changing workplace
VALUES
• First loyalties to current company or organisation;
• Value competition and winning;
• Focus on work.
HEADLINES
• They’re Watching While You Work….
• Nuclear Power 1: Renewables 0
• Deregulate To Accumulate
PEOPLE
Worker SUE (MultiSource Energy): “I work all the hoursGod sends and more, but it’s not so bad because we’vegot pills to help us along.”
Lawyer NEILL: “Genetic profiling saves my new materialsclients a packet.”
Employee representative TED: “Health and Safety takesup way more time than pay issues.”
Local authority employee RAHEEMA: “Health andSafety? Least of my problems.”
A THRIVING COMPANY
A large corporation offering global investment and trading services, including competitive intelligence.
• Workplace pressures linked to alcohol abuse” sayshealth advisor
• Obesity: Britain tops EU league
• “Maintaining productivity is a 24/7/365 endeavour!”
ADMIRED PEOPLE
Gordon Gekko
J R Ewing QUOTES AND METAPHORS
• “There is no society, there are only individuals.”
• “Success first, sustainability later.”
* These scenarios are intended to stimulate thought. They are in no way predictions of the future and do not represent HSE views on how the future may develop.
• Newsagents’ collective sue over paper cuts Ex health and safety representative now working for
• ASBOs Reach Record High Health and Safety Insurance (HSI) STEVE: “The new
• ‘Phish and Chips’: RFID scam; consumers hit Health and Safety accreditation scheme is a winner.”
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
Boom and Blame health and safety in the changing workplace
Blame Culture • Global free market amplifies economic divide: UK • Less consideration for the environment, leading to worsening conditions; • Resistance to new technology, economy holding steady,
• Rejection of risk, • Large enterprises; • Technology: adopt and adapt – let someone else pay
• Focused on finances, business services, expertise, for R&D, and externalise the impacts where possible. • Shattered by impacts of conflict/war;
and tourism; • Fragility in face of economic/social/other shocks. High-Tech Workplace
• Government intrudes much less – regulatory structures are reduced and the market is free; • High tech for productivity;
Competitive Society • Knowledge workers staying home; skilled blue collar • Big enterprises working globally;
• Ageing UK/European demographic; out-migrating; • Workplace standardisation and limited company-sponsored
• Widespread obesity; augmentation for competitive advantage; • New focus on extended biological family as genetic Business Adapt
• Financial sectors, technical services, expertise, and tourismhealth mapping gains importance. • Initiatives known for rapid adoption and adaptation
more than innovation; • Deregulating to generate wealth to fix environment;Invasive Computing
• UK label on services and ephemera. BUT • Pervasive computing (seamless, immersive telecoms • Deregulation adds to environmental damage.
and computing networks; Wifi/RFID) monitors productivity; Growing Consumption
• Total lifestyle, environment, and performance monitoring • Who has time to shop? ‘fastgoods’; Health and Safety only for Productivity by companies via implants tracking working wellness • Conspicuous consumption still fashionable; • Workplace stressors/risks: high pressure to compete and productivity.
• Foods healthier – must enhance productivity; successfully;
Economic Success • Nuclear power; fuel subsidies, no support for • Home stressors/risks: lack of home/down time;
Increased UK competitiveness environmental initiatives; • Leisure stressors/risks: insufficient leisure;
• Harmonisation of regulations; differently-abled in • What leisure? • Attitude to H&S: necessary to maintain productivity; employment; incorporation of migrants; enterprise culture, expectation of well-being, and social cohesion; Sustainability Delayed • H&S infrastructure: based within company; government
involvement minimal – increased role for insurance • Only stable, surplus generating economy can afford companies;A world of globalised capital sustainability;
• BRIC economic strength; • Extent of regulatory structure: MINIMAL
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
Tough Choices health and safety in the changing workplace
Leading article – The Economiser – 1 December 2017
We’re calling it: the recession is now a slump. Asset price deflation has spilled over into a general deflation, which low interest rates cannot correct. Chunks of our cities decay as organisations outsource and migrate. We’ve watched public agencies, NGOs, and big business cut costs and re-trench. The health infrastructure is creaking, pensioners are job-hunting with the vigour of school leavers and in some cities,
It’s no surprise that accident rates are up – as are insurance claims.
Yet in many ways, Britain’s employers and workers have proved remarkably adaptable. Short term contracts, part time working and creative shift patterns have kept many a business afloat; and the older worker – who may have skills, both technical and inter-personal, that many employers now consider lost – is valued more highly than ever before. Over 1 million workers are aged 65 or KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD
over. The challenge is to enable them to continue to DECREASED EU COMPETITIVENESS gangs clash over turf. Climate change has lost out to keep working. ECONOMIC STAGNATION battling international organised crime as the new global Britain is not a country in collapse. Flexible employers, BLAME CULTURE challenge. adaptable employees and continued business The world of work has changed. Competition for the endeavours, even in these troubled times, provide hope. FRAGMENTING SOCIETY
best jobs is hot, and disappointed candidates with great But we face at present a landscape littered with tough REDUCED CONSUMPTION CVs are looking elsewhere in the world. Elsewhere, choices and a future of tougher challenges.
SUSTAINABILITY BY COPING people are elbowing each other aside for jobs with It’s time for action. long-term health and pension benefits. Yet even with PERVASIVE COMPUTING A LUXURY high unemployment, some seasonal and labour intensive WORKPLACES CHEAP AND SHABBY jobs go begging.
In the workplace itself, the picture has changed. With shrinking revenues, ‘shabbily genteel’ now describes too many British workplaces. Reports show that old machinery, worn flooring, improvised wiring and over-taxed ventilation and exhaust systems are common. Advanced automation and intelligent systems installed just five years ago aren’t getting the updates they need.
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
Tough Choices health and safety in the changing workplace
• First loyalties to self;
•
• Wish for the luxury of choice regarding work/life balance;
HEADLINES
Monetary Policy Committee stands firm – lower interest rates must wait.
Fourth anniversary of the great crash. When will the bear market end?
Prices fell another 3% last year
Infections in warehouse linked to tag-chip implants
Crime levels reach 10-year high
a productivity tag.”
track of who you’re dealing with...”
Local authority representative RAHEEMA:
where they work?”
ADMIRED PEOPLE
Arthur Daley
VALUES
Value security;
“Where’s the aid we were promised?” say bankers.
QUOTES AND METAPHORS
“Tough choices require tough resolve.”
I can’t afford!”
Private Walker
Factory Worker SUE: “I’ve just started my third job this year, I don’t know how long it will last. The pay’s not great, but I’ll get a pound extra an hour if I agree to wear
Business Owner NEILL: ”Health and what? It’s a luxury
Employee representative TED: “I’m flat out. And companies switch management so often it’s hard to keep
“I sometimes feel like I’m fighting a losing battle. People don’t seem to listen the way they used to…”
Health and safety representative STEVE: “I’m banging my head against a brick wall. How can I improve health and safety when I barely know what people are doing or
EXAMPLE COMPANY
A medium-sized corporation working within the UK and EU, producing small electrical appliances and struggling to remain competitive.
* These scenarios are intended to stimulate thought. They are in no way predictions of the future and do not represent HSE views on how the future may develop.
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
Tough Choices health and safety in the changing workplace
Blame Culture Economic Stagnation Workplaces Cheap and Shabby
• Resistance to new technology; • Decreased UK competitiveness; • Outmoded high technology, no renovation of
• Rejection of risk; • Globalised capital and BRIC economic strength; infrastructure;
• Shattered by impacts of conflict/war; • Labour competing hard for one good job; • Medium-sized enterprises operating mainly in Europe;
• Fragility in face of economic/ social/other shocks. • Companies tempted to use moonlight labour; • Workplace increasingly shabby, worn, and a hazard;
Fragmenting Society • Few business initiatives; Health and Safety Circumvented • As pressures on government increase, government • Belt-tightening, retrenchment, cost-cutting.
• Workplace stressors/risks: worn office andprogrammes are increasingly undependable; Reduced Consumption infrastructure;
• Europe moving towards the wings of the global stage – • Consumption at lowest ebb in thirty years; • Home stressors/risks: unwarranted goods, lack of home seen as a fertile field for organised crime activities;
• Consumers buy cheap goods, knock-offs, most repair, stress from juggling conflicting priorities; • Worried about personal and economic security, people affordable in all categories; • Leisure stressors/risks: limited; hazards of worn-out
draw a close line around near relatives - the new infrastructure;nuclear family. • Drop in expensive imported foods, speciality foods,
organic foods; • Attitude to H&S: problems are other people's fault;
Unfavourable Demographics • Conserve resource use to lower bills; • H&S infrastructure: individual responsibility, with some
• Ageing UK/European societies; • Travel curtailed -- leisure at home; limited government advice;
• Widespread obesity; • DIY health and wellness. • Extent of regulatory structure: Who cares?
• Skilled labour out-migrating if possible. Circumvention. Sustainability by Coping
Computing Only For The Rich • No available capital to invest in retro fitting or • Seamless, immersive telecoms and computing entrepreneurial initiatives;
networks are a luxury for the wealthy; • Technology: can’t afford the R&D – or ameliorating • Increased technological monitoring of people using any negative impacts;
RFID tags; • Resource degradation increases, but with straitened • Everybody else gets by with cell phones. resources, there’s not much we can do.
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
A Virtue of Necessity health and safety in the changing workplace
Leading article – Sustainability Times: resources dynamically among several businesses,
Local edition – 1 December 2017 lowering costs and reducing waste. Given our concerns about climate change, this office ’co-op’ may well be
WiMax immersive edition – 1 December 2017 just a cycle ride away. And new industries are emerging The latest figures are in: going green and staying local that recycle, repair and ‘make do’. The ‘We Can Fix It’ have fertilised a dormant economy. Britain is becoming franchise is flourishing. a beacon for high tech sustainability in our technically Of course, declining birth rates and a slowdown inastonishing world. But it is also a nation with huge immigration mean it’s more important than ever to keep KEY FEATURES OF THIS WORLD demands on its public services, particularly health workers safe and healthy – particularly those 1 millionprovision and elderly care. The have/have not gap has workers aged over 65. This is achievable - technological REVIVING UK COMPETITIVENESS widened. Yet the march of change continues. progress has been blamed for increasingly complex THE ECONOMICS OF RECOVERY Take the world of work. In some ways, it’s similar to that health and safety issues but at least we have the ability CULTURE OF PERSONAL RESPONSIBILTY of ten years ago. Manufacturing still exists. There are still to track workers’ health and stress indicators throughout large corporations – mostly with overseas owners and the day. Or at least we do if your employer can afford CLOSE-KNIT SOCIETY
notwithstanding those that relocated overseas, taking the RFID monitor tag systems. It’s often those workers SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION many skilled workers with them. And the health and care who need them most that can’t have them – those in
“SHABBY GREEN” SUSTAINABILITY sector remains by far the largest employer. Yet in other care professions, for example, or people working shifts ways the world of work is very different. and juggling child (and parent) care responsibilities. PERVASIVE COMPUTING
Society has re-trenched. More people have shifted from So how do we keep our workers safe and well as the GREENING OF WORKPLACES
consumerism to self-sufficiency – it is a warmer world, world of work changes? No one pretends it’s easy. after all. It’s been a gain for sustainability – and, it But it’s essential. Our economy – and the future careseems, for revived competitiveness, as people re-create needs of all of us – may depend on it…businesses from a unique local and green perspective.
More and more of us work for small companies – in aworkplace as likely to be a ‘flat pack’ office in your boss’sback garden as it is an office block. More and moresmall businesses are sharing office space, productionmachinery and support staff – using software to allocate
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
A Virtue of Necessity health and safety in the changing workplace
VALUES
• First loyalties to family and local community;
• Value balance and wellness;
• Focus on life over work.
PEOPLE
Worker SUE: “It’s tough holding down 3 jobs, but at least I can check on my Gran round the corner on my mobile videophone and webcam …it’s 5 years old now but it still works OK.”
A THRIVING COMPANY
An SME focused on local markets, specialising in organic botanicals for nearby B&Bs and spas.
Businessman NEILL (Local Biofuel Producer): “I’ve had a low sugar beet harvest this year so prices are high but sales are still holding up.”
Employee representative TED: “Membership’s stable, but people seem to rely on local social networks for support.”
Local authority employee RAHEEMA: “I’m worked off my feet trying to keep tags on all the local businesses springing up.”
Health and safety representative STEVE: “I spend most of my time dealing with bad backs, what with all the local food producers.”
• “Shabby Green” is the new black;
ADMIRED PEOPLE
Charlie DimmockQUOTES AND METAPHORS
• A Nation of Tinkerers and Eco-Friendly Gardeners
Trevor Bayliss
‘Remember Reduce Re-use Recycle’
• Community spirit echoes post-World War II attitude
* These scenarios are intended to stimulate thought. They are in no way predictions of the future and do not represent HSE views on how the future may develop.
HEADLINES
• DIY Nation: “Can you fix it?”...”Yes we can!!”
• Carbon taxes to go up again
• “Get off our backs!” say workers and management
• Golden Oldies aim to create the Good Life
• Oranges and Lemons, from Brighton…and Melons!
• Torquay beats Torremolinos! Record visitors to seaside town…
• Public backs Governments 4Rs campaign:
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
Horizon Scanning: health and safety in the changing workplace
Breakout Groups
A Virtue of Necessity health and safety in the changing workplace
Personal Responsibility The Economics of Recovery Greening of Workplaces
• Pro-active adoption of technology, management of risk; • Decreased UK competitiveness; • High tech for green health;
• Ability to absorb impacts of conflict / war; • Dawn of the Pacific Era; • Enclaves, mini-networks;
• Resilience in face of economic / social / other shocks. • Globalised capital and BRIC economic strength; • Increased workspace diversity (more small local
• UK economy is recovering, but resources are still limited; businesses, fewer large corporate offices, more home Close-Knit Society working); • People use social networking to form tightly knit special • Working in small local businesses and caring for
• Less industry, more organic and speciality agriculture, interest groups and enclaves; parents, family;
destination / experience / wellness businesses; • Families closer knit, but sometimes far-flung – children • Business initiatives are typically local, unique,
• Increased personal responsibility and green values;out-migrated for jobs; ecological, experiential.
BUT• Government focuses on elderly, health detection and Sustainable Consumption
prevention; role of coach. • Increased pressures for cost reduction can lead to • Consumption low but rebounding; increased regulatory avoidance.
Unfavourable Demographics • Consumers buy durable, efficient goods, easy to repair, Health and Safety in Moderation • Ageing UK / European societies; modular, re-usable;
• Workplace stressors / risks: more manual jobs; • Widespread obesity, but not increasing; • Purchasing more locally grown food, doing without increase in ‘traditional’ injuries; • Skilled labour out-migrating if possible. imports – and eating less;
• Home stressors / risks: too much responsibility for family; • Travel and leisure local and community-based;
Pervasive Computing • Leisure stressors/risks: minimal; • Focus on fitness, some use of HPE (Human Performance
• Seamless, immersive telecoms and computing networks; Enhancement). • Attitude to H&S: individual responsibility; Wifi / RFID; • H&S infrastructure: government as coach; self-organised
• Used to link family and local community, for environmental “Shabby Green” Sustainability support networks; and health monitoring and problem detection; eases • Forced by economic limitations – don’t have much so • Extent of regulatory structure: MODERATE. home care and enables telemedicine for elderly. you don’t use much – innovations help;
• Assess health and environmental impacts of technology before adopting.
F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n o n H o r i z o n S c a n n i n g v i s i t w w w . h s e . g o v . u k / h o r i z o n s / i n d e x . h t m
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Schwartz, Peter (1991) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain
World, Wiley, ISBN 0-471-97785-3
van der Heijden, Kies (2002) The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with
Scenarios, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84491-4
van der Heijden, Kied (2005) Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, ISBN 0-
470-02368-6
Ringland, Gill (2002) Scenarios in Public Policy, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-84383-7
Ringland, Gill (2006) Scenario Planning: Managing for theFuture, Wiley, ISBN 0-470-01881-1
HSE Website Horizon Scanning pages www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm
Horizon Scanning Centre, Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills:
• Sigma Scan www.sigmascan.org
• Delta Scan www.deltascan.org
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8. GLOSSARY: FORESIGHT TERMS
Confirming hit: a scan hit that provides additional evidence that an original scan hit could develop into a full-blown trend (see scan hit). Driver: development producing major change; may be an emerging issue, a trend, or a megatrend (see megatrend). Effects: this term loosely encompasses all the linked changes that change itself causes: mapping the effects of change in essence looks not just at the result of the cue ball striking the racked balls, but at the subsequent results of the balls in motion as they rebound off the table walls and each other. As differentiated from impacts: this term, on the other hand, loosely encompasses how all the players involved feel about the effects of the cue ball striking the racked balls. The "impacts" of change are our evaluations of all the effects of change - and thus vary from person to person. Emerging issue: a source of change -- the first case; the original idea or invention; the watershed event; the social outlier expressing a new value - that is, a sign of change that exists presently in only a few scattered instances, which might multiply into enough data points to constitute a trend. You might say that an emerging issue is a trend with only one or two cases, Environmental scanning: see horizon scanning. Foresight: see futures studies. “Future present:” a clumsy term to describe the time described in images of the future: the present-day of the future any image describes, or the future considered as if we were living in it now, with our present as its past. Futures studies: a trans-disciplinary, systems-science-based approach to analysing patterns of change in the past; identifying trends of change in the present; and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible outcomes in the future; in order to help people create the future they most desire. Horizon scanning: the research strategy of reviewing a broad range of information sources across all fields of investigation (STEEP / EPISTLE / PESTLEC) in order to glean data about emerging sources of change; also known as environmental scanning. Image of the future: an imaginary description (in any format or media) of a possible future outcome for a given item of interest: a person, a community, an organization, nation, society, bioregion, planet, etc. An infinite number of possible images of the future exist. This futures concept is related to the notion in physics of alternate universes. Megatrend / metatrend: commonly used to indicate a widespread (i.e., more than one country) trend of major impact, composed of sub-trends that in themselves are capable of major impacts. More precisely, a cluster of related trends which reinforce each other and together form a ‘super-trend’, of which the best example is perhaps globalisation: the cluster of related trends in production, infrastructure development and linkage, labour mobility, capital mobility, worldwide IT capabilities, etc., all of which tend to reinforce each other's growth through a complex system of interrelationships allowing feedback and feedforward. Scan source: a documentable source of information about change; may be published (newsletter, journal, magazine, conference proceedings, book, newspaper); online (website, weblog, e-journal, bulletin board, discussion group); broadcast (TV, radio); or live (focus group, conference, interview, personal conversation), as long as it is documentable. Scan hit: a datum (fact) providing information about an emerging issue, trend, or driver of change. Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation. Scenario: a technical term usually used to describe an image of the future deliberately crafted for planning or foresight purposes. It should be rooted in identifiable trends or emerging issues data extrapolated and organized using an explicit theory of social change. It should describe how changes created the particular future present out of the past, and offer a vivid, provocative,
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accessible picture of how the future present differs from today. Scenarios are often evaluated in terms of plausibility and probability; they should contain both opportunities and threats – they are statements of possible future outcomes. Scenario building: the process of combining data about change – trends, drivers, emerging issues, and their potential impacts – into a coherent, logically consistent narrative describing the world at a specified future time. Many different approaches exist, of which the following are a few examples:
• Matrix: popularised by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View, also thought of as the approach used at Shell Oil and the Global Business Network. Essentially, chooses two highly important but highly uncertain trends or emerging issues to act as “drivers” of change, and creates a 2X2 matrix by expressing each driver as a continuum between two antithetical outcomes. The scenarios are created in the four spaces defined by the opposite ends of the two continua.
• FAR/futures table: developed by R. Rhyne (1981), the Field Anomaly Relaxation approach to generating futures chooses relevant trends and emerging issues of change, forecasts a range of potential outcome values for each, and then allows the creation of internally consistent scenarios by creating a comparative table which allows checking each potential outcome of each variable against all the others, scoring for contradiction. Scenarios are generated by choosing those clusters of trend outcomes that do not contradict each other.
• Dialogue: an approach used by Sociovision and refined by Joop de Vries which explores potential outcomes of drivers, trends, and emerging issues by means of a facilitated dialogue, resulting in group mapping of potential outcomes and expression of the metaphors and future images which provide organising motifs for clusters of outcomes.
• Diversity: an approach developed at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, which focuses on creating scenarios depicting medium- to long-term futures (at least one generation out). Three to five emerging issues from different STEEP categories are used to generate potential impacts and cross-impacts; these details are woven into a narrative depicting a possible future which is maximally diverse from the present.Parameter: developed at SRI International and documented by Thomas Mandel, this approach assumes four archetypal scenario outcomes – upside, downside, transformational, and wildcard – and creates scenarios by extrapolating possible upside, downside, transformational, and wildcard outcomes for each trend or emerging issue chosen as relevant.
Seed(s) of change: see emerging issue. Trend: a pattern of change over time in some variable of interest. Having trend data for some variable implies multiple instances of that variable. For example, one revolution in Africa is an event; two or three revolutions would call for comparative case studies; fifteen revolutions in countries in Africa within five years would constitute a trend. One of the most obvious, and largest trends, is the increase in world population. A potentially even larger trend, but much less obvious -- or even agreed upon -- would be the gradual warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. Another is the continuing decline in the cost of microchips and consequently of computers. Weak signal: see emerging issue. Wild cards: low probability but high impact changes – like a global plague, or the invention of table-top fusion – usually described as events rather than gradually unfolding changes. NOTE: they may be very positive, very negative, or mixed in effects and impacts. Variable: a quantifiable subject of study, the value of which can change over time. Vision: a technical term used to describe an image of the future that articulates an individual’s or group's most closely held values, most cherished ideals, and most preferred goals in a positive statement of a preferred future outcome.
Published by the Health and Safety Executive 12/07
Executive Health and Safety
HSE futures scenario building The future of health and safety in 2017
This report describes the processes, output, and participant evaluations of a scenario-building project completed for the Horizon Scanning function of the Health and Safety Executive. The scenario process incorporated critical issues of change derived from 28 interviews of HSE policy-makers and outside experts. Participants in a two-day scenario-building workshop chose drivers of change from among these issues, and created a framework defining four different possible futures for health and safety in the UK in 2017. The scenario process also incorporated the emerging changes identified by horizon scanning as ‘hot topics’ for health and safety. Results from the workshop were written up in two formats:
n ‘research scenarios’ that include supporting evidence such as reference to other government agency foresight research and scenarios; and
n ‘workshop scenarios’ that present the key ideas in a vivid but compressed format to generate group dialogue.
As a test of their efficacy in generating policy discussion and ideas, the scenarios were deployed twice:
n at the HSE Horizon Scanning Conference in November 2006 to spark wide-ranging discussion of possible challenges facing the HSE; and
n in a subsequent wind-tunnelling workshop to demonstrate how scenarios can be used to consider specific policies in the face of potential change.
This report and the work it describes were funded by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Its contents, including any opinions and/or conclusions expressed, are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect HSE policy.
RR600
www.hse.gov.uk