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Obamas all in on TPP, but PC key to bring deal itself across congressional finish line its the mother of all trade fights because its perceived as setting the new framework for ALL FUTURE TRADE DEALSVinik, 15 -- Danny Vinik is a staff writer at The New Republic, New Republic, 4/8/15, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121476/trans-pacific-partnership-foundation-all-future-trade-dealsA theme runs through these four disagreements: They're overrated. The actual effects of the TPP are exaggerated. Labor unions warn about mass job losses and the Obama Administration touts the significant labor provisions in the law, but the academic evidence largely points to small job losses or gains. The left demands a chapter on currency manipulation while knowing that the 11 other TPP countries will never accept one without significant restrictions on the Federal Reserve. Even for Washington, a town where every policy decisions becomes a massive lobbying free-for-all, the TPP seems overblown. Until, that is, you consider whats really at stake with the TPP. "I think its larger importance is trying to establish a new framework under which global trade deals will be done, said Hanson. Now that the [World Trade Organization] seems to be pretty much ineffective as a form for negotiating new trade deals, we need a new rubric." Looked at through that lens, it makes sense why both the unions and the Obama administration have spent so much political capital on the TPP. If the TPP sets the framework for future trade deals, it could be a long time before unions have the leverage again to push for a crackdown on currency manipulation. They understand, as the Obama Administration and many interest groups do, what much of the media doesn't: The TPP isn't just a 12-country trade deal. It's much bigger than that. When I shared this theory with Jared Bernstein, he began to rethink his position. When you put it that way, I kind of feel myself being pulled back into the initial title of my post, he said. In other words, if this is the last big trade deal, then perhaps the absence of a currency chapter is a bigger deal than I thought. If the TPP could determine the course of global trade for decades to come, then each interest group has a huge incentive to fight for every last policy concession. It explains why labor and business groups are putting huge amounts of money into this fight. That money and the accompanying rhetoric has only made it harder for policy journalists to cut through these complex debates. It may take decades before we really understand the stakes of the TPP.

Impact is multiple scenarios for conflict throughout asia and east asia impact D and thumpers dont apply TPP is necessary AND sufficient condition, accesses every structural check 11 reasons Pivot Institutions and Rules that moderate and constrain Territorial disputes and escalation US regional leadership Perception and credibility of US regional commitment Perception and Regional credibility of US-Japan alliance effectiveness Economy Trade Economic interdependence Peaceful china rise and transition Rule of law Outweighs US military shiftEconomist 14. [11-15-14 --- http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21631797-america-needs-push-free-trade-pact-pacific-more-vigorously-americas-big-bet]Mr Froman, the trade tsar, puts TPP into a dauntingly ambitious context. He calls it central to Americas pivot to Asia, a chance to show the countrys commitment to creating institutions that moderate territorial disputes, and an opportunity to show emerging economies (meaning China) what economic rules the global economy should follow. At a time when there is uncertainty about the direction of the global trading system, TPP can play a central role in setting rules of the road for a critical region in flux, he says. The flipside of this is that failure becomes an even bigger risk, which Mr Froman acknowledges. Perhaps in an effort to prod a somnolent, introspective Congress into action, he makes the dramatic claim that failure could mean America would forfeit its seat at the centre of the global economy. Many pundits in Washington agree that American leadership in Asia is on the table. Michael Green of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies says TPP failure would undermine the impression of the United States as a Pacific power and look like an abdication of leadership. It would also take pressure off Japan and China to reform their economies. Mireya Sols, a Japan expert at the Brookings Institution, says it would be a devastating blow to the United States credibility. Those views are echoed in East Asia. Mr Tay in Singapore says TPP failure would be a disaster: If the domestic issues of these two countries cannot be resolved, there is no sense that the US-Japan alliance can provide any kind of steerage for the region. Deborah Elms, head of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, suggests that so far the American pivot has manifested itself mainly as an extra 1,000 marines stationed in Australia. Without TPP, all the pivot amounts to is a few extra boots on the ground in Darwin, she says. Even members of Americas armed forces are worried. As one senior serving officer in the Pacific puts it, the TPP unites countries that are committed to a trade-based future, transparency and the rule of law. It is the model that the United States and Europe have advanced versus that advanced by China. It is an opportunity to move the arc of Chinese development, or identify it as a non-participant.

Nuclear warLanday 00 (Jonathan S., National Security and Intelligence Correspondent, Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service, 3-10, Lexis)

Few if any experts think China and Taiwan, North Korea and South Korea, or India and Pakistan are spoiling to fight. But even a minor miscalculation by any of them could destabilize Asia, jolt the global economy and even start a nuclear war. India, Pakistan and China all have nuclear weapons, and North Korea may have a few, too. Asia lacks the kinds of organizations, negotiations and diplomatic relationships that helped keep an uneasy peace for five decades in Cold War Europe. Nowhere else on Earth are the stakes as high and relationships so fragile, said Bates Gill, director of northeast Asian policy studies at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. We see the convergence of great power interest overlaid with lingering confrontations with no institutionalized security mechanism in place. There are elements for potential disaster. In an effort to cool the regions tempers, President Clinton, Defense Secretary William S. Cohen and National Security Adviser Samuel R. Berger all will hopscotch Asias capitals this month. For America, the stakes could hardly be higher. There are 100,000 U.S. troops in Asia committed to defending Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, and the United States would instantly become embroiled if Beijing moved against Taiwan or North Korea attacked South Korea. While Washington has no defense commitments to either India or Pakistan, a conflict between the two could end the global taboo against using nuclear weapons and demolish the already shaky international nonproliferation regime. In addition, globalization has made a stable Asia, with its massive markets, cheap labor, exports and resources, indispensable to the U.S. economy. Numerous U.S. firms and millions of American jobs depend on trade with Asia that totaled $600 billion last year, according to the Commerce Department.

Uniqueness/Internals TPP Mechanics

Yes Pass/A2: U Overwhelms

Obama PC key to TPP post fast track fight over deal itself is the decisive last round and will be a HUGE political battle passage likely now, but not guaranteed Benen, 6/25 Steve, MSNBC political contributor, Producer Rachel Maddow Show, http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/obamas-trade-agenda-back-the-brinkObamas trade agenda, back from the brink For those engaged in the debate over trade, the last six weeks have been a roller coaster unlike anything the political world has seen in a while. Opponents of President Obamas trade agenda were winning, the supporters were winning. Then opponents reclaimed the advantage, only to see supporters take it right back. As of late yesterday, however, it appears the White House and its unusual set of allies are going to get exactly what they want. NBC News reported last night: A critical aspect of President Barack Obamas economic legacy got a boost on Wednesday when the Senate voted to approve giving him fast-track authority to negotiate a sweeping 12-nation trade pact without the threat of Congress adding amendments or filibustering the final deal. The vote was 60-38. The measure now heads to the presidents desk for signature. The final roll call on the Senate vote is online here. Note, Congress passed Trade Promotion Authority better known as fast-track without the labor-friendly Trade Adjustment Assistance, but that will soon change. Under the plan hatched by the president and Republican leaders, TAA will be on its way to the Oval Office by tomorrow. Indeed, it passed the Senate late yesterday on a voice vote and is expected to clear the House with relative ease. House Democrats originally blocked TAA, which they support, in the hopes of derailing the larger trade agenda, but now that fast-track has already passed, the Democratic minority no longer has an incentive to oppose the policy they like. Several House Dems who oppose the trade agenda acknowledged yesterday that the fight is over. Thats largely true, though theres likely to be one more round. By passing fast-track, Congress has made it easier for Obama and his team to negotiate a massive trade accord the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP which is nearing completion. In fact, the debate surrounding the trade deal is likely to change quite a bit very soon as part of the fast-track legislation, the public will be able to read and scrutinize the deal long before an agreement is formally reached. For quite a while, critics have raised concerns about the secrecy surrounding the trade negotiations, but this will soon fade. The fight will focus more on the TPPs merits, less on its process. All of which leads us to the last fight of the dispute. The White House now has the tools it sought, but the Trans-Pacific Partnership is not yet a done deal. Opponents and supporters of the policy will still have an opportunity to push lawmakers to agree with them when Congress takes up the agreement itself, and its a safe bet those arguments will be fierce. But for now, Obama is right where he wants to be, having won a Capitol Hill fight many expected him to lose. Its still a strange image, though the president has all kinds of impressive accomplishments, but this is the first time in the Obama era the White House agenda advanced thanks to Republican support.

PC and congressional relations key TPA vote proves it works on trade, Obama will use it, its finite and spills over TPP is brutal political fight and passage not guaranteedBaker, 6/24 -- Peter, American political writer and newspaper reporter who is the White House correspondent for The New York Times and a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine, Prior to joining The New York Times in 2008, Baker was a reporter for 20 years at The Washington Post, where he also covered the White House during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/business/obama-bolsters-his-leverage-with-trade-victory-but-at-a-cost.html?_r=0Obama Bolsters His Leverage With Trade Victory, but at a Cost WASHINGTON President Obamas success in rescuing his high-priority trade legislation from a rebellion by fellow Democrats strengthens his hand internationally and paves the way for completion of the most expansive economic agreement in generations. While the turbulent process was embarrassing for the president and deeply confusing for foreign negotiating partners, Mr. Obama now has the leverage he sought to force the final concessions needed to wrap up a free-trade pact bringing together 12 nations along the Pacific Rim. Talks should resume soon, and American officials hope for a deal in short order. Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, called trade promotion authority the most important bill well do this year.Trade Authority Bill Wins Final Approval in SenateJUNE 24, 2015 Today is a very big vote, declared Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader.Trade Accord, Once Blocked, Nears PassageJUNE 23, 2015 Soon-to-be citizens at a naturalization ceremony in New York. One Republican sought a provision to prohibit future trade deals from loosening immigration laws.Republicans Tie Their Favorite Causes to the Trade AgreementJUNE 10, 2015 But the victory on Capitol Hill, orchestrated mainly by the same Republican leaders Mr. Obama has battled over the last six years, came at a cost. The open warfare within his own party was searing and may be slow to heal. Democratic lawmakers said an already fraught relationship with the president had soured further, and some vowed to keep fighting the trade pact, called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, foreshadowing another bruising battle. Mr. Obama faces the question of how he will move forward with Congress in the time he has left in office. Given the alliance with Republican leaders on a shared priority, can he capitalize on the momentum to achieve further bipartisan accords? Or is this a one-time convergence of interests that does not carry over to other major issues like the budget? Hes had a collaboration across the aisle that gave him maybe the strongest legacy of his presidency, said Carla Hills, who served as the United States trade representative under the first President George Bush and went on to found a consulting firm advising businesses on expanding international trade. Now hes got 15 months left. Whats he going to do with it? Perhaps surprisingly, Mr. Obama has found common ground with Republicans several times in the six months since they took control of the Senate and added to their House majority. He signed a bipartisan measure imposing new restrictions on national security surveillance, and, after initially threatening a veto, accepted bipartisan legislation giving Congress a role in evaluating any nuclear deal with Iran. White House officials see room for further consensus with Republicans on a large public works program of road, bridge and other construction projects, as well as legislation to overhaul the criminal justice system to address what both parties see as excessive incarceration. While they would not say so out loud, White House officials found it easier to work with Congress on trade now that Republicans control of both houses. Mr. Obama and his team saw Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, as challenging to work with when he was in the majority, and his opposition could have made it impossible to pass the trade authority measure last year. By contrast, Obama aides have privately praised Republicans like Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader; Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio; and Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, saying they were straightforward and professional during the trade debate. And Mr. Obama invested more energy in lobbying for trade authority, which would grant him enhanced negotiating power, than he had in perhaps any initiative since Democrats lost the House in 2010. The last six months, working on this, theyve really shown a willingness for the first time to work across the aisle, and because of that, this key economic measure has been salvaged, said former Gov. John Engler of Michigan, a Republican who is president of the Business Roundtable. It would have been catastrophic if it had been defeated. White House officials argued that Mr. Obamas efforts were crucial because he delivered enough Democrats to put the measure over the top. Yet he delivered relatively few Democratic votes and had to be saved by Republicans after House Democrats blocked his trade package. Democratic opponents of the trade legislation bristled at what they saw as the presidents belittling their concerns and accusing them of making up arguments. The legislation sent to Mr. Obama allows him to submit trade deals to Congress for up-or-down votes without amendments. But that means his Democratic critics will have another shot at defeating the Trans-Pacific Partnership if it is completed and sent to Congress for approval. Representative Peter A. DeFazio, an Oregon Democrat who was a leading critic of the trade legislation, said the president should listen to his party and address concerns about the labor and environmental standards and investor protections in the agreement. If not, he said, Democrats will fight him again. It is so bad, and we will have so much time to simply explain that to the American people that you might find that we could fuel a very substantial grass-roots revolt, Mr. DeFazio said.

TPP Passage likely, but not guaranteed fast track was necessary, but only a first step its key to success of Asia pivotKehoe, 6/24 John, John Kehoe is the United States correspondent for The Australian Financial Review, , John reports on the economy, politics, and business, John began his career at the Australian Treasury as a policy analyst, after studying economics and politics at Monash University in Melbourne.Australian, Financial Review, 6/24/14, http://www.afr.com/news/economy/trade/obamas-pacific-trade-deal-close-as-congress-reverses-block-20150623-ghvyt4Obamas Pacific trade deal close as Congress reverses block President Barack Obama and the US Congress cleared a major hurdle for a proposed Pacific Rim free trade and investment agreement, paving the way for the 12 participating countries, including Australia and Japan, to finalise negotiations on a deal. After the President copped an embarrassing rejection from his own union-beholden Democratic party 11 days earlier, a majority of US Senators supported advancing legislation that would give Mr Obama the power to set the details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The 60-37 vote in the Senate on Tuesday to prevent a filibuster debate on the so-called trade promotion authority (TPA) bill, sets up a final vote in for senators on Wednesday to grant the President the fast-track power. The TPA measure is widely expected to attract the 51 votes required, after the House of Representative approved mirroring legislation last week. The TPA or fast-track power, which prevents Congress from changing the details of the TPP and limits lawmakers to a simple yes or no vote on the final pact, is vital for other countries to sign the free trade and investment agreement. Luis Miguel Castilla, the ambassador of Peru to the United States, said the TPP negotiations were stalled until other countries had assurance the President had secured TPA. "There are still some critical issues pending at the negotiating table [between TPP countries], but this is an essential first tool to proceed forward," he said at the Atlantic Council in Washington. The TPP is a major proposed multilateral accord, covering more than 40 per cent of the world's economy and will set sweeping new rules for trade, investment, intellectual property, labour and the environment. As well as promising big economic benefits for countries to plug in to the fast growing Asia region, the TPP is considered a vital economic element to President Obama's strategic rebalance to Asia to offset the rise of rival China. The 12 TPP countries are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam. Participating countries yet to remove trade barriers, such as agriculture tariffs and quotas in Japan and Canada, have been holding back their best and final offers until they have confidence that the US Trade Representative can keep its word without meddling from the US Congress. Trade unions and many Democrats have waged a furious campaign against the TPP, claiming that a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada earlier triggered the shifting of thousands of blue collar jobs to lower cost countries and only benefited big corporations. In the end, President Obama relied on mainly Republican support, combined with a handful of Democrats, after the House initially rejected TPA legislation this month. Mr Obama, who was criticised for belatedly lobbying Congress on the benefits of TPP, has said the deal is vital to ensure the US helps set the trade rules in Asia, instead of China. Trade Minister Andrew Robb, who was in India, has said getting trade ministers together to conclude a negoitation was dependent on a successful US outcome on TPA. Pro-free trade Republicans hailed Tuesday's breakthrough in the Senate. "This has been a long and rather twisted path to where we are today but it's a very, very important accomplishment for the country," said Senate majority leader and Republican Mitch McConnell, who helped steer the vote. Despite optimism that the Washington roadblock is now almost cleared, there remain key sticking points to overcome between countries. Chile's amabassador to the US, Juan Gabriel Valds, said other countries faced similar challenges gaining domestic political support in their own legislatures to conclude the TPP. "We have political cycles, we have political circumstances and this is a debate that is going to be a tough debate in our own congress," he said. "There is a tendency to indicate that a mere approval of TPA has solved all the matters pending in the discussions. This is simply not true."

passage on course, but not certain despite fast track - its top Obama priority and PC still key - opponents are regrouping and huge political fight remains Geewax, 6/23 -- Marilyn, Senior Editor and national economics correspondent, NPR, 6/23/15, http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/06/23/416854805/senate-votes-to-advance-the-white-house-trade-agendaSenate Votes To Advance The White House Trade Agenda The Senate voted 60-37 Tuesday to advance President Obama's trade agenda setting up a big victory for the White House and a painful loss for labor unions. This latest Senate vote clears away procedural hurdles for legislation granting Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to Obama. That power allows the president to negotiate trade pacts and then put them on a so-called fast track through Congress. With TPA in place, Congress would take a simple yes-or-no vote on any trade deal, with no room for amendments. For decades, presidents have asked Congress for this power, saying that other countries don't want to approve agreements with the United States unless they know any package is final. This trade-negotiation power has expired, and Obama wanted it renewed so that he could complete a deal with 11 Pacific Rim countries. That trade deal, known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, is still being worked out. Its progress has been slowed by Obama's lack of fast-track authority. But now, Obama is on course to get that power so he can complete TPP. The Senate still needs to take a final vote on TPA, but passage now requires just a simple majority. Given Tuesday's 60 votes in favor of clearing procedural hurdles, passage seems virtually certain when the Senate votes probably on Wednesday. The House has already approved fast-track authority. So barring some amazing turnaround, Congress will send TPA legislation to Obama shortly, and he will sign it into law. Unions have been putting up a fierce fight to stop TPA, which they say leads to secretive trade deals that benefit corporations but harm workers. After the vote, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, a union supporter, took to the Senate floor to say the vote was "shameful" because it would open the door to more trade deals. In contrast, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., praised the vote and said, "America is back in the trade business." Even though TPA seems a virtual certainty, there's still a bit more drama to play out. It involves trade-related legislation that Democrats support. To win Democratic votes for TPA, Republican leaders in the House and Senate have pledged to allow votes on legislation renewing Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), a program to help displaced workers, as well as a bill to extend trade preferences to sub-Saharan African nations. McConnell also promised to move quickly to complete legislation that would step up enforcement of trade laws. Those bills, supported by the White House and by the great majority of Democrats, have been stalled amid procedural maneuvering to get TPA done. It now appears they will move forward. Moving forward with a full trade agenda has been a key goal for the White House. But the battle to do so has created a lot of hurt feelings between the Obama administration and trade opponents, who include union members, environmentalists and consumer advocates. Those opponents are now regrouping for the next fight. Once fast-track authority is in place, Obama will be able to complete negotiations for TPP. Then Congress will have to vote on it, likely this fall. Robert Weissman, president of the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, put out a statement saying that once "people see what is actually in the agreement, they are going to force their representatives in Washington to vote that deal down."

Fast track makes TPP passage likely, but not guaranteed still a big fight key to asia pivot biggest fight in house = no filibuster is irrelevantWerner, 6/24 Erica, Reporter @ Associated Press, Boston Herald, 6/24/15, http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/national/2015/06/senate_vote_moves_obamas_trade_agenda_to_brink_of_enactmentWith Obama within reach of major trade victory, opponents vow to fight individual treaties Senate vote moves Obama's trade agenda to brink of enactment President Barack Obama's long-pursued trade agenda took a giant step toward becoming law on Tuesday, and opponents grudgingly conceded they now must fight on less-favorable terrain. A key Senate vote greatly brightened Obama's hopes for a 12-nation Pacific-rim trade agreement, a keystone of his effort to expand U.S. influence in Asia. The trade pact would be a high point in a foreign policy that has otherwise been consumed by crisis management, and would give Obama a rare legislative achievement in the Republican-controlled Congress. The Senate voted 60-37 to advance his bid for "fast track" negotiating authority. That was the minimum number of votes needed on the procedural question. But final passage, expected no later than Wednesday, needs only a simple majority, which would let Obama sign fast track into law. The president also wants to continue a retraining program for workers displaced by international trade. House and Senate support appears adequate, but even if that measure stumbles, the long-coveted fast track bill will be on Obama's desk. "This is a very important day for our country," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said. In the strange-bedfellows politics of trade, he was among the Republican congressional leaders vital in pushing the agenda forward, with only modest help from Democrats. The big majority of Democrats, especially in the House, oppose free-trade agreements, as do the labor unions that play important roles in Democratic primaries. They say free-trade agreements ship U.S. jobs overseas. Obama, major corporate groups, GOP leaders and others say U.S. products must reach more global markets. They say anti-trade forces have exaggerated the harm done by the 1994 North America Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Previous presidents have enjoyed fast track authority. It lets them propose trade pacts that Congress can reject or ratify, but not change or filibuster. Obama wants to complete negotiations for the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP. Members include Japan, Mexico and Canada. He would ask Congress to ratify it, following weeks or months of public scrutiny that will give opponents another shot. Several such organizations said they will regroup and fight on. The liberal group MoveOn.org said fast track "puts the interests of massive, multinational corporations over those of American workers, consumers, and voters." When the Pacific-rim proposal becomes public, the group said, "MoveOn members and our allies nationwide will hold our elected officials accountable and urge them to vote down any deal that's bad for the American economy."

passage likely, but not guaranteed Obama PC still key, its his top priority and hes pushing hard TPA vote only motivates opposition and shifts fight onto TPP Davis, 6/24 -- Susan, USA Today, 6/24/15, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/24/trade-fast-track-questions/29214127/For the first time since 2007, Congress has approved the renewal of trade promotion authority (TPA), known as "fast track." Passage of the legislation on Wednesday is a huge win for President Obama and Republicans, who formed a rare alliance to enact it over the opposition of the majority of Democrats. Here is a primer on the latest in the trade debate: Q: Why does Obama want fast track authority? A: Fast track creates an expedited legislative process for presidents to get trade bills through Congress. The authority expired in 2007, and Obama is the only president in the modern era who has not had fast track at his disposal. It allows the president to submit to Congress trade pacts that can only be approved or rejected, not amended, after a period of review. TPA therefore enhances the president's hand to finalize negotiations in trade talks. The new fast-track authority is good for six years and may be used to consider potential agreements from several ongoing trade negotiations. Chief among them is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation pact with Asia-Pacific nations that is one of the largest trade agreements ever negotiated. TPP is a cornerstone of Obama's foreign policy agenda with Asia and a top policy priority in his remaining 18 months in office. Obama says it will provide the U.S. a stronger foothold in emerging markets and provide an economic counterbalance to China in the region. Q: But if it's a top Obama priority, why are Democrats so opposed? A: TPA sparked a rare moment of disunity for Obama and congressional Democrats, in part because the party's base has soured on trade and its effects on the U.S. economy. Every major labor union opposed TPA, as did the majority of Democrats in Congress. Just 28 of the of 188 House Democrats voted for TPA as did just 14 of 46 Senate Democrats, which includes two independents. Obama took on his party's base on this, sparring publicly with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and touting renewed TPA as the most progressive fast-track agreement in history. Democrats have historically been more skeptical of trade agreements, and a lagging U.S. economy and slow wage growth for American workers made it an ever harder sell in the current political climate. Michigan Rep. Sander Levin, a top House Democrat on trade issues, has also said Democrats worry the pending trade agreements will undermine human rights and environmental standards, among other concerns. Q: So who are the winners? A: It's a victory for Obama, as well as a number of congressional Republicans who worked with the administration to get it passed, including Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, House Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., as well as House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who helped devise a legislative gambit to get fast track through Congress after an initial rebellion by House Democrats. Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden was also a critical Democratic player in crafting TPA. While the White House may view Wyden as a winner, he also sparked the ire of Democratic activists who are threatening a primary challenge in his reelection bid next year. Q: And the losers? A: House Democrats, including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., took a lot of lumps in the debate after they defied the White House and voted down a trade adjustment assistance (TAA) bill in a poorly executed strategy to slow down or change TPA. The move extracted no changes and did not slow the process in any substantial way, leaving Democrats empty-handed and backed into a corner to support trade adjustment assistance when it returns to the floor this week. Pelosi announced Wednesday she would vote for TAA this time because "it can open the door to a full debate on TPP." Labor unions, who worked hard to keep Democrats in line to defeat TPA, also take a hit with its passage. However, union leaders say it will only serve to motivate union voters at the ballot box. Q: When will TPP come up for a vote? A: There are no votes scheduled yet on TPP. Assuming the negotiations are finalized, fast track requires a 60-day public review period before Congress can vote on it. Realistically, The Asia-Pacific trade agreement is unlikely to come up for a vote before the fall as Congress confronts pressing legislation to fund the nation's highways and grapples with a log jam over the annual spending bills. TPP opponents are pessimistic about their chances to defeat the trade bill once it comes up for a vote, as the vote for fast track indicates that there is majority support in Congress for the trade pact.

TPP passage likely not guaranteed, despite fast track approval PC still key, It Obamas top priority and still a tough political battle Washington Post, 6/23 -- http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/congress/key-issues-and-what-lies-ahead-for-obamas-trade-agenda/2015/06/23/5a00d810-19d5-11e5-bed8-1093ee58dad0_story.htmlKey issues, and what lies ahead, for Obamas trade agenda TPA, TAA, TPP Its an alphabetical mix on trade that requires an explanation. The bottom line is President Barack Obamas trade agenda, a top priority of his last two years in office, is back on track. Trade Promotion Authority, also known as fast track, appears on its way to final Senate passage and President Barack Obamas signature. Enjoyed by previous presidents, it lets the administration negotiate trade agreements that Congress can reject or ratify, but not change or filibuster. WHY IS TPA IMPORTANT? All parties agree that negotiating nations are unwilling to make their best offers to the United States if they feel Congress is well-positioned to kill the deals. That doesnt mean congressional approval is automatic. WHAT COMES NEXT? Obama will urge completion of negotiations for the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP. He would ask Congress to ratify it, following a period of public scrutiny certain to stir debate among unions, environmental groups, businesses, farmers and others. WHAT COUNTRIES ARE IN THE TPP? The United States, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. ___ WILL OTHER TRADE AGREEMENTS FOLLOW? Quite likely. For example, the United States has been negotiating with several European countries, pursuing the Trans-Atlantic Trade Investment Partnership, or TTIP. ___ WHAT ELSE REMAINS ON CONGRESS TRADE AGENDA? Three more trade-related bills await Senate action. The most important would extend trade adjustment assistance, or TAA. Usually a union and liberal priority, it provides aid and retraining to workers displaced by international trade. The House also would have to pass TAA if its to become law. WHAT ARE THE CHIEF ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST FREE-TRADE AGREEMENTS? Unions and many liberal groups say free-trade pacts ship U.S. jobs abroad and reward countries with poor environmental and workplace standards. Obama and others say U.S. products must reach more markets in the global economy.Congressional TPP passage not guaranteed Obama pushing but it will be a tough political fight, despite fast track Lopez, 6/24 Laura Barron-Lopez, covers Congress for The Huffington Post. Previously, she reported for The Hill and E&E Publishing's Greenwire, Huffington Post, 6/24/15, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/24/pelosi-backs-taa_n_7654954.htmlIm disappointed that the TAA bill isnt nearly as robust as it should be in light of a trade agreement that encompasses 40 percent of the global economy," Pelosi wrote in a Dear Colleague letter to House Democrats. "While we may not all vote in the same manner on TAA, I will support its passage because it can open the door to a full debate on TPP." Obama is currently negotiating the TPP with 11 Pacific nations. The TPP and two other large trade deals that the administration is working on, together encompass over half of the world's economy. The passage of the agreements depends on Congress granting him fast-track powers. Pelosi and a majority of House Democrats oppose fast-track, as well as the massive trade deals that the administration is pushing. They argue that such deals fail to protect workers at home, lack sufficiently robust environmental standards and financial regulations, and do nothing to stop unfair currency manipulation. "My standard for any trade agreement is that it must create good-paying 21st century jobs, increase the paychecks of American workers, and it must do so recognizing the relationship between commerce and climate," Pelosi wrote. With fast-track legislation expected to reach Obama's desk Wednesday evening and be signed into law, the public will have only two months to read and understand deals such as the TPP after they are negotiated and before the president signs them. Congress will have to approve the deals as quickly as one month after that, with no changes allowed. "While we have not all voted in the same manner, we all recognize that the next debate will be over Trans-Pacific Partnership itself and all Members -- on both sides of this debate -- will shine a bright light on the provisions of TPP," Pelosi wrote. Pelosi's announcement of support comes after weeks of intense lobbying by the White House, including personal meetings between the president and House Democrats. When all of that failed, however, Obama hunkered down with Republicans, cutting Democrats who opposed fast-track out of the dealmaking process. The battle over Obama's trade agenda has left Capitol Hill in chaos over the past month, and is one of the few issues on which a majority of Democrats have found themselves fighting the president.

Passage of trade bills just shifts the focus to fight over TPP itself passage not guaranteed, obama must overcome intense political resistanceBabington, 6/25 -- Charles, covers Congress and national politics for Associated Press. Prior to joining AP in 2007, he worked at The Washington Post, where he covered politics, Congress and the White House, Star Tribune, 6/25/15, http://www.startribune.com/senate-and-house-prepare-to-complete-obama-s-trade-agenda/309734341/With Congress set to finish Obama's trade bills, eyes turn to proposed pacts in Asia, beyond Congress is wrapping up President Barack Obama's trade agenda, one day after handing him the big prize of "fast track" negotiating authority. Lawmakers appear ready on Thursday to approve a jobs retraining program for workers displaced by international trade. Usually a Democratic priority, it briefly became hostage to Democrats' failed efforts to block fast track. Also on tap are measures to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act and to enact various customs provisions. Passage of the bills will let Obama and his trade opponents shift their focus to proposed trade agreements under negotiation for years. The first involves the United States, Japan, Canada and nine other Pacific-rim nations. The fast-track law allows Congress to ratify or reject such agreements, but not change or filibuster them. Passage of the trade bills mark a huge win for the president, and one paradoxically spearheaded by Republicans. While clearly a setback for liberal Democrats, some say they will focus on details of the Pacific pact and other multination trade agreements the administration is expected to propose soon. The resurrection of Obama's once-imperiled trade package is a stinging defeat for the AFL-CIO and other unions and environmental groups that fiercely opposed it. They say free-trade agreements kill U.S. jobs and help countries with poor environmental and workplace standards. Some have vowed to punish the relatively small number of congressional Democrats who opposed them. But Obama much like the last Democratic president, Bill Clinton portrays expanded trade as crucial in a global, high-tech economy. Most Republicans agree, but most congressional Democrats, especially in the House, do not. Trade has opened the most striking breach between a Democratic president and the lawmakers who overwhelmingly backed him on health care and other hard-fought issues. House Democrats dealt Obama a humiliating rebuke on June 12, when they derailed his trade package only hours after he traveled to the Capitol to personally ask for their help. Republican leaders, with White House support, restructured the legislative package and passed its key elements with big GOP margins, plus modest Democratic support.

TPP passage likely post-fast track, but congressional approval isnt a done deal PC Key, vital to Asia Pivot and EconHughes, 6/24 Krista, Trade Correspondent @ Reuters, 6/24/15, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-usa-trade-idUSKBN0P40BJ20150624Obama's Pacific trade pact nears finish in U.S. Congress President Barack Obama's bid to boost U.S. economic ties with Asia neared approval on Wednesday, when a six-week congressional battle will culminate in a decisive Senate vote on legislation needed to seal his hallmark Pacific Rim trade deal. After two brushes with failure, some fancy legislative footwork and myriad backroom deals to keep the legislation alive, lawmakers are expected to grant Obama the power to negotiate trade deals and send them on a fast track through Congress. Passage could push the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a central part of Obama's foreign policy pivot to Asia, over the finish line in time to get it through Congress before year-end. The deal, potentially a legacy-defining achievement for Obama, would create a free-trade zone stretching from Japan to Chile, comprising 40 percent of the world economy and raising annual global economic output by nearly $300 billion. The Senate voted 60-37 on Tuesday to clear a procedural path for a final vote on passage of fast-track authority, which would let lawmakers set negotiating goals for trade deals, including TPP, but restrict them to yes-or-no votes on final agreements. The fast-track legislation itself now only needs a majority of votes to pass, a hurdle it cleared easily more than a month ago on its first run through the Senate. RESISTANCE EBBS The last congressional hurdle to the trade package also appears to be disintegrating. Fast-track was forced back to the Senate floor after a revolt by House of Representatives Democrats resulted in fast-track being split from a companion measure extending a program to help workers hurt by trade. That bill faces a separate vote in the Senate, as early as Wednesday, and another in the House. Many Democrats who opposed it last week now plan to support it, including House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. "I will support its passage because it can open the door to a full debate on TPP," she said in a letter to colleagues. The top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, Sander Levin, said he expects the "vast majority" of Democrats to vote "yes." Republicans hope to pass both measures this week and send them to Obama for approval, before going on a week-long break. The bruising congressional battle has pitted Obama against many in his own party, including Pelosi, and prompted blood-letting among Republicans after party leaders lashed out at conservatives who refused to back the trade agenda. Although opinion polls show a majority of Americans support trade in general, congressional approval has been a tough slog because labor unions and activists have campaigned against fast-track, warning of job losses and vowing to retaliate against Democrats who break ranks to support trade. The front runner for the party's presidential nomination in 2016, Hillary Clinton, said Democratic critics had legitimate concerns but has so far reserved judgment on the TPP. The TPP would be the biggest trade deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement 20 years ago between the United States, Canada and Mexico.

TPP passage likely post TPA, but not guaranteed Obama has enough PC to deliver the votes now, but congressional politics still key its vital to trade and asia stabilityBaker, 6/24 -- Peter, American political writer and newspaper reporter who is the White House correspondent for The New York Times and a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine, Prior to joining The New York Times in 2008, Baker was a reporter for 20 years at The Washington Post, where he also covered the White House during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, NYT, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/business/obama-bolsters-his-leverage-with-trade-victory-but-at-a-cost.html?_r=0In the near term, though, Mr. Obama is emerging with a more potent hand on the world stage, having avoided a defeat that would have made him look like a lame duck. The trade talks have come as he is at a critical stage in two other international negotiations, one with Iran to curb its nuclear program, the other with Cuba to restore diplomatic relations. Mr. Obamas trade representative, Michael B. Froman, will now renew negotiations with individual countries seeking to join the trade pact to work on outstanding issues. After that, the chief negotiators of all 12 countries will gather in hopes of pushing through the final disputes. Other nations have held off backing down on the toughest issues to see whether Mr. Obama would have the ability to deliver congressional approval. With the congressional votes behind him, Mr. Froman will be in a position to press Japan to make concessions on its rice market, for example, or Vietnam on stronger workplace standards. Congress has made clear what it expects in terms of high-standard trade agreements, Mr. Froman said in an interview. With this guidance, weve been granted the direction and authority to move forward with our negotiations. That does not mean it will be easy. The negotiators have a pretty good sense of where the landing zone is, but now some key political decisions have to be made, said Susan Schwab, the trade representative under President George W. Bush. Victor Cha, another former Bush adviser, who now directs Asian studies at Georgetown University, said that sealing the Pacific trade agreement would transform economic rules across a fast-growing region. If he gets this, Mr. Cha said of the president, historians will record it as the most important new institution in Asia.

Passage likely but Not a done deal presidential politics and bipartisan congressional support still key for TPP successWerner, 6/24 Erica, Reporter @ Associated Press, Boston Herald, 6/24/15, http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/national/2015/06/senate_vote_moves_obamas_trade_agenda_to_brink_of_enactmentThe Senate vote "is an important step towards revitalizing our economy, creating more good American jobs, and reasserting our country's global economic leadership," said U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Thomas J. Donohue. The Senate was poised to give final passage to fast track on Wednesday or possibly late Tuesday and then address three other trade-related bills. The most important would extend trade adjustment assistance, which provides aid and retraining to workers displaced by international trade. The House also would have to endorse the program for it to become law. The retraining program is usually a union and liberal priority. But House Democrats this month voted against it in hopes of scuttling fast track, which was part of the same measure. Obama's trade allies rescued the agenda by decoupling the items and passing fast track, by itself, in the Senate on Tuesday. Some House Democrats still talk of blocking the retraining program, because Obama has insisted on signing it along with fast track. Others, however, say they've lost their legislative leverage and ending the program for displaced workers would be counterproductive. Presidential politics threw a brief scare into pro-trade senators early Tuesday. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, a presidential hopeful, flipped his vote from support in May to opposition, saying the issue had become "enmeshed in corporate backroom deal-making." The only other senator to change positions was Ben Cardin, D-Md. He voted in favor of fast track in May, but voted to block it Tuesday. For all the bitter politics over trade, many economists say new trade agreements might affect the U.S. economy only modestly. Jobs lost to trade might be roughly offset by jobs created, they say. Still, Obama and others say greater U.S. assertiveness on world trade will lessen China's influence in Asia and elsewhere. Obama says China could eventually join the Pacific-rim pact, but China would have to abide by its environmental, economic and workplace rules. White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters, "our work on trade is not finished." "With bipartisan support from Congress," he said, fast track "will help America write the rules of the road and ensure that our new global economy will be constructed to allow more hardworking Americans to compete and win."

Fast track increased chances of congressional TPP passage, but still not guaranteed fierce dem oppositionAFP, 6/24 -- http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/601496/tpp-chances-advance-in-us-congressTPP chances advance in US Congress President Barack Obama inched closer Tuesday to gaining a powerful tool as he tries to seal a trans-Pacific trade deal designed to counter the economic might of China. The tool is called fast-track authority, under which once the United States signs a trade deal with other countries, the president submits it to Congress for a yes-or-no vote. Lawmakers can debate such an accord but not amend it. They have to vote yes or no, treating the accord as a whole rather than being able to tweak a piece of it; they must in essence take it or leave it. A vote on giving Obama this authority will probably come Wednesday. Negotiations on the trade deal itself continue. What happened Tuesday to help Obama was strictly a procedural matter, in the Senate. It was a vote on whether to shorten debate leading up to the definitive, final vote on granting Obama fast-track authority. Most Democrats in both chambers of Congress oppose the Pacific free-trade accord, saying among things it will cause Americans to lose jobs because of cheap labor in Asia. So on this issue, Obama and the Republicans who control both chambers have become odd bedfellows. In Tuesday's vote, most Senate Democrats tried to make life difficult for Obama by voting against letting the fast-track bill move closer to a definitive vote. It was their final attempt to delay the process, and it failed. The final numbers in the vote were 60-37. Of those voting in favor, 13 were Democrats who sided with the Republicans. Gaining fast-track authority would mark a triumph for Obama in a saga that has torn his Democratic Party apart in recent weeks. The vote will let the United States "negotiate and enforce strong, high-standard trade agreements that are good for our economy and good for our workers," White House spokesman Josh Earnest wrote. The House passed the bill last week despite a nearly all-out rebellion by the Democrats. The bill will force an up-or-down vote on trade not just this time but on any future trade bill negotiated by the US president. For the past 40 years, all US presidents have enjoyed fast-track authority, such as with Mexico and Canada in the case of the North American Free Trade Agreement. - Looking ahead to EU deal? - With the new bill, Obama and whoever succeeds him will have such leeway until 2018, with a possible extension until 2021. That should help a free-trade accord in the works with the European Union. But first comes the Trans-Pacific Partnership, billed as the biggest trade accord in history. Obama wants to sign it before he leaves office in January 2017. The agreement under negotiation, comprising an estimated 40 percent of global trade, is a sweeping pact among 12 countries including Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan and Vietnam. It would create a free-trade area to counter the economic might of China in the Asia-Pacific region. Tuesday's vote will send a message to US allies that we understand they are "somewhat wary about Chinese commercial and potentially military domination and that we intend to still be deeply involved in the Pacific," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said. Environmental groups opposed to the trade bill fear the application of a private arbitration system which they say will allow companies to sue states over environmental or labor laws that violate the terms of the Pacific trade deal. "The Senate vote today illustrates the raw power of wealthy campaign contributors, Wall Street financiers, Big Oil and other corporate polluters to put the will of corporations in front of people and the environment," said the president of Friends of the Earth, Erich Pica. Tuesday's vote went ahead only after Republican leaders made a concession: they agreed to pass, by the end of the week, a law aimed at helping workers who lost their jobs because of previous free trade accords. The few Democrats who agreed to side with the Republicans had demanded this and called it non-negotiable.

PC Key/A2: U Overwhelms harder than TPA

PC Key and passage not guaranteed Despite fast track authority, TPP will be an even tougher political battle than TPAPeterson, 6/12 -- Kristina, covers Congress from the Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau, WSJ, http://www.wsj.com/articles/obamas-trade-agenda-faces-crucial-votes-in-house-1434101402Obama Makes Capitol Hill Plea to Democrats on Trade Agenda Votes on fast-track authority, workers aid expected amid struggle between President, fellow Democrats President Barack Obama made an impassioned plea Friday to House Democrats in an 11th-hour bid to shore up support for his trade agenda ahead of a series of crucial votes. In a rare visit to Capitol Hill, Mr. Obama delivered his closing argument to a Democratic caucus sharply divided over whether to support legislation that would grant the president fast-track authority for a Pacific trade dealand extend aid to U.S. workers who lose their jobs because of foreign trade. The House was expected to begin voting midday Friday on two contentious measures, with both expected to face razor-thin margins as a week of last-minute negotiations wound down. Mr. Obama grounded his message in personal experience, telling lawmakers that his actions were aimed at lifting up American workers. But many Democrats remained opposed to the fast-track bill Friday morning, and some said Mr. Obamas argument relied on simply trusting him. The president said, I know steelworkers in the South Side of Chicago who lost their jobs and everything I do is for them. Well, I was born and raised in Detroit and I represent Minneapolis, so I dont really think his emotional tie to displaced workers is greater than mine or anybody elses, said Rep. Keith Ellison (D., Minn.), co-chair of the House Progressive Caucus, who plans to oppose both key trade measures Friday. I really disagree with him on this more and more. Lawmakers said Mr. Obama boiled down his argument to play it straight and not use legislative gambits to bring down a complicated package of trade bills He made a very powerful statement. It was about Democrats voting according to their own conscience and doing the right thing, said Rep. Michael Honda (D., Calif.), who opposes the trade package. Passage of the trade legislation would deliver a rare, second-term political gift from a GOP-controlled Congress to Mr. Obamawho squared off against labor groups in a bruising Democratic battleas well as to business groups and Republican leaders who put aside their suspicion of the White House to advocate for the trade legislation. The presidents excursion to Capitol Hill comes after a surprise appearance Thursday night at the congressional baseball game. There, he made a personal pitch to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) Approval of fast track would give Mr. Obama the power to submit trade deals to Congress for an up-or-down vote, without amendments, as previous presidents have done. Such power would ease passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a near-final deal between the U.S. and 11 other nations around the Pacific Ocean that would cover nearly 40% of the world economy. The Senate approved trade legislation late last month, but its fate remained in jeopardy in the House as Democrats Thursday night raised late concerns over the bill, which many in the party oppose. In the latest twist, many Democrats were expected to oppose a measure extending a workers assistance program long championed by their party. Democrats had balked at a provision in the Senate bill that pays for the program with cuts to Medicare providers. In a deal painstakingly negotiated and refined this week by Mrs. Pelosi and Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio), the program, known as Trade Adjustment Assistance, or TAA, would be funded by a different source. But some Democrats still had qualms because the fix would be made through a separate piece of legislation, and they worried the structure of the deal could open them up to political attacks over the Medicare cuts. The House will hold two fast-track votes Friday, one on the portion of the Senate bill that deals with worker aid legislation andif that passesone on the part of the bill providing fast-track powers to Mr. Obama. The two issues were split up in a procedural maneuver known as dividing the question to allow conservatives opposed to the workers aid to vote against it. The chamber will also vote on altering and passing a customs and enforcement bill already passed by the Senate. Lawmakers said Mr. Obama entreated them not to sink the workers aid program just to derail the fast-track provisions. The workers assistance program expires at the end of September and many Democrats worried that this is their best opportunity to extend it. For us as a party to threaten to bring [TAA] down and face the risk that we will lose it in its entirety in the future because the other side wont bring it up again, we would own that then as a party, said Rep. Ron Kind (D., Wis.), chairman of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of more centrist, business-friendly Democrats. We would have to go home and look into the faces of those workers who arent caught up in all the political squabbles of Washington and wondering why were not there to help them get back on their feet again. But Democrats who vote for the trade legislation could face political repercussions heading into next years elections. Jim Dean, chairman of Democracy for America, a progressive political-action committee, warned Democrats against supporting either the workers aid program or the fast-track measure. We will not lift a finger or raise a penny to protect you when youre attacked in 2016, we will encourage our progressive allies to join us in leaving you to rot, and we will actively search for opportunities to primary you with a real Democrat, Mr. Dean said in a statement Friday. The notion of fast-tracking a trade bill has also met with resistance from conservative Republicans, many of them hesitant to help a president they have clashed with over health care, immigration and other issues. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R. Wis.), an influential conservative, has put much of his own political capital on the line as he has sought to build support for the trade legislation. A yes vote would be a huge win for conservatives, free-market principles and American leadership, Mr. Ryan wrote in an editorial published late Thursday in the Washington Examiner. Many of the presidents critics are rightly concerned that he too often keeps Congress in the dark. But [the fast-track measure] will turn on the lights. Passage of both measures would send fast-track legislation straight to Mr. Obamas desk, ending the uncertain congressional support that is seen as crucial to completing the Pacific trade deal. If fast track becomes law, the trading partnersincluding Japan and Vietnamcould wrap up the TPP in coming weeks. Still, complicated bureaucratic requirements mean the TPP is unlikely to come to a final up-or-down vote in Congress before the end of the year, and could come well into next year. Even if fast track passes, the later fight on the Pacific trade deal could turn out to be longer and more politically divisive if it occurs in the spotlight of the 2016 election cycle, officials and trade experts say. Besides the TPP, the fast-track legislation could expedite potential trade deals with the European Union and other trading partners for the next six years. Failure of the trade legislation Friday would mark a decisive victory for unions, who launched an aggressive campaign to defeat the legislation in final weeks, including releasing ads attacking individual lawmakers and threatening to take revenge in future elections. To counter that, Mr. Obama has indicated he will lend his support to lawmakers who backed him on trade. Rep. Scott Peters (D., Calif.), who Thursday hadnt decided yet how he would vote, said Mr. Obama had called him two or three times to discuss the topic. Hes generally said that hell have the back of people who support him on this so Ill find out what that means if I vote yes, said Mr. Peters. Its a tough vote for me because my districts very trade-dependent, but theres a lot of fear about what happens if we vote for TPA.

PC key, passage not guaranteed congressional opposition to TPP is uniquely intense - its an even tougher fight than TPA - requires arm twisting and political horsetrading, even if approval of other deals is inevitableKane, 6/23 -- Paul Kane covers Congress and politics for the Washington Post, Washington Post, 6/23/15, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/didnt-obamas-trade-bill-already-die-5-questions-on-tpa-taa-tpp-/2015/06/22/cda4639a-1921-11e5-bd7f-4611a60dd8e5_story.htmlDidnt Obamas trade bill already die? 5 questions on TPA, TAA, TPP ... Congress is set to take up another set of votes on legislation to advance President Obamas trade agenda, which if five different roll calls go his way could finally conclude by Friday with a major victory for the White House. Its been a several-month saga for Obama, with his bid to first win fast-track authority so that he can then pass a massive 12-nation trade deal bobbing and weaving at various points, seemingly dead in the legislative waters, only to bounce back to keep advancing. Heres a rundown of the key issues. Wait, didnt Obama already suffer a humiliating defeat on this? Yes, no, kind of, basically. On June 12, the House upended Obamas push to win fast-track powers, known as Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), but it happened not on the centerpiece of the legislation and instead on a side measure designed to provide funds for worker training to help those who have lost jobs because of global competition. Even though almost every Democrat supports that worker program, more than 75 percent of House Democrats decided to oppose that piece of the legislative package because of the unusual rule that Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) used to try to pass the trade initiatives split into two major parts, each measure needed to win a majority or else the entire agenda stalled. Fiercely opposed to expanded trade deals, particularly the emerging Trans-Pacific Partnership the president is closing in on, labor unions encouraged liberal Democrats to oppose the program that their members have benefited from over the years because it meant stalling the overall agenda. Republicans delivered far more votes (86) for the training program, Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA), than they had ever expected, but with just 40 Democrats backing Obama on that vote, he lost in a rout. That came after an unusual level of personal pleas by the president, who has been widely criticized by Democratic lawmakers for not developing close bonds with anyone on Capitol Hill. Before this vote he attended the annual Congressional Baseball Game for a few innings and trekked to the Capitol before the vote. It was a very unusual moment for a presidents own party to so overwhelmingly reject his work. So, how is this possible that the president still might win on trade? Rather than sulk, Obama and his top advisers spent the next few days figuring out how to get around the Democratic blockade. They knew they had a super-majority of senators supporting fast-track powers 48 Republicans and 14 Democrats voted for the entire trade package in late May. And they knew a slim majority supported TPA in the House, where the main issue won on a narrow vote moments after Democrats delivered the blow on the worker program. Working the phones with Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the president agreed to a new plan that would peel off the fast-track powers for trade deals and move that as its own stand-alone bill. They werent abandoning the other pieces of the trade puzzle, but they decided that if everyone who already voted for fast-track would do so again, then TPA could be sent to the presidents desk and there would be no need to hold other trade-related provisions hostage. The first step came Thursday, six days after the initial defeat, when the House approved the fast-track-only bill on a similar vote, with the same 28 Democrats joining with 190 Republicans to advance what Obama considers one of his most important final pieces of his presidency. On Tuesday, the Senate faces a key test vote on the TPA stand-alone bill, needing 60 votes to overcome a filibuster from liberal opponents of the legislation. Most of the 14 pro-trade Democratic senators have signaled they will go along with the plan, despite previous demands that any vote for fast-track come attached with the worker retraining funds. If Tuesdays roll call crests 60 votes, that sets up a final passage for trade authority on Wednesday and would send the legislation to Obama to be signed into law. But what about worker training and the acronym trade programs? Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah), chairman of the Finance Committee and a key negotiator on trade issues, has famously declared that the worker retraining funds are the quid pro quo that is required to get Democratic votes for trade deals. So, despite the apparent victory on expanded trade powers, Boehner and McConnell have pledged to Obama and other supportive Democrats that they are also ready and willing to get the other pieces to the White House. And they have a handy vehicle to accomplish this. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, tinkered with a third trade bill, boosting African trade. That sent the African trade bill back to the Senate, after receiving nearly 400 votes in House. McConnell has taken that already popular bill and set it up to be amended to include TAA and also a program to make U.S. steel manufacturers more competitive on the global markets. McConnell believes that the vote for this package will resemble a test vote held last month that would have gutted TAA, but instead, 46 Democrats and 16 Republicans supported the program. If that coalition holds together and clears the filibuster hurdle, slated for Wednesday evening, a final vote would come Thursday and then send the African trade bill and its new parts to the House. Wont House Democrats still block TAA just like two weeks ago? Thats hard to say, but White House officials and their pro-trade allies in the Capitol believe that this new plan will leave liberal opponents of Obamas trade agenda with no choice but to approve the newly assembled combination. After initially citing many different reasons, most House Democrats eventually said their opposition to TAAs worker funds was done solely to block fast-track. Now that the TPA bill will already be at the White House, the incentive to vote against a collection of three bills that most Democrats otherwise support might fade. Supporters of Obamas trade agenda believe dozens of members of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Steel Caucus will now support the plan, and other Democrats have privately suggested they might now vote for the package if it does nothing to stop the centerpiece of the original bundle TPA from getting signed into law. That vote could happen Friday in the House. Is that all? Whats next? No, theres a lot left to come. Even if each of those dominoes falls in Obamas direction, he now has to go negotiate the final pieces of the TPP, the Pacific Rim trade deal that represents 40 percent of the global economy. Once thats finished, the president must send the deal to Congress for a pair of up-or-down votes under strict timelines and no ability to amend the text. If it reaches that stage, it will be a far bigger debate, probably with even more twists and turns.

TPP is obamas top priority but not guaranteed despite fast track Obama PC and congressional relations key - presidential primary season makes vote even harder than TPA, Obama will need ability to give political and legislative favors and extended congressional delay derails it anywaySteinhauer, 6/17 Jennifer, Jennifer Steinhauer is an American reporter for The New York Times who has covered the United States Congress since February 2010, NYT, 6/17/15, Trade Bills Fate Rests on Whats Been Missing in Congress: Trust The fate of President Obamas trade bill hinges on a complex brew of congressional relationships, procedural rigmarole and several leaps of faith across party lines. On Thursday, the House will take up a bill that would give Mr. Obama accelerated negotiating authority to pursue a sweeping, legacy-building trade agreement with 11 Pacific Rim nations, essentially the same bill it narrowly passed last week. Republicans and a handful of Democrats who support trade deals are expected to again give it the nod. Speaker John A. Boehner and Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, said in a statement Thursday that both were committed to getting the fast-track authority bill to the presidents desk. But that is only half of the solution that both sides are trying to work out. The trade authority is linked to a program to help workers displaced by global trade accords, a measure that House Democrats rejected last week, despite supporting it for 40 years, and that Republicans voted for even though they consider it a giveaway to organized labor. Pro-trade Democrats in the Senate now find themselves in a place of both power and panic as they weigh whether to help Republicans retaliate against House Democrats, all the while trusting those same Republicans to help pass the worker assistance program. Among the nearly 30 Democrats in the House and the 14 in the Senate with a record of supporting trade deals, the political motivations for strategizing with the White House and Republicans at the same time are clear. Having already voted for the bill that would give the president accelerated power to negotiate the broader Trans-Pacific Partnership, many are already feeling the heat emanating from their left flank. In 18 months, if attack ads from labor ensue as promised, the incumbents will need a policy victory that they believe benefits their states to boast about in response. I will do anything to pass trade, said Senator Bill Nelson, Democrat of Florida, in a blunt assessment of his desires. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, Explained The Deal This is the most ambitious trade deal since the North American Free Trade Agreement in the 1990s. The Politics The deal has become a cornerstone of President Obamas trade policy in his final term. The Upshot Who would win? American service industries. Who would lose? Manufacturing workers. There is such a plan. Senate Republicans are hoping to persuade Democrats to pass the trade promotion measure again, trusting Republican leaders to then tuck the worker assistance components they care about into a noncontentious trade preference bill related to Africa, and send it back to the House for final passage. That would allow all sides, including Mr. Obama, to claim victory. The only legislative strategy that the president will support is a strategy that will result in both T.P.A. and T.A.A. coming to his desk, said Josh Earnest, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, referring to trade promotion authority (fast track) and trade adjustment assistance (workers assistance). He added, We also know that for any of those strategies to succeed, it will require the support of Democrats in the House and Senate. Some Democrats are not so sure of the strategy. There are a lot of ways that could be thwarted, warned Senator Maria Cantwell, Democrat of Washington. It is up to both the White House and other Democrats to bring them along. On Wednesday, Mr. Obama met with Democratic lawmakers at the White House, and Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, who has been leading efforts to reach a bipartisan accord on trade, has also organized a series of additional meetings with the group. The calculation for Democrats is essentially this: Do they trust Mr. McConnell to lead fellow Republicans to vote for the noncontentious trade bill that includes the worker protection piece many in their party dislike? They also want to make sure that Mr. Boehner will bring up that measure once the Senate is done with it most likely at the end of next week. Mr. Obama and Democrats aligned with him on trade have to support Mr. McConnell and Mr. Boehner, basically saying, Trust us that we trust them. Senate Democrats will also have to gamble that House Democrats will not once again vote against the measure. For their part, Mr. Boehner and Mr. McConnell have to use their leverage within their own conference to make sure that Republicans who reluctantly voted for the worker assistance do so again. They also have to ensure that House Republicans some of whom have taken a beating from the far right for giving the president too much authority with their trade vote stick with them, and perhaps even convince a few more Republicans to come along in case too many Democrats balk. Taken together, the moves engage bipartisan muscles that have not been flexed in a while. But Republicans may not be the biggest problem. Last month, 16 Republicans voted against an amendment that sought to strip trade assistance from fast track. And some Republicans, especially those up for re-election, care about the worker assistance. I think it makes sense to do it this way if we can get T.P.A. done, said Senator Pat Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania. However, all this delay could spell bad news for the presidents ultimate prize, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal that affects 40 percent of the global economy. Under the terms of the trade promotion legislation, Mr. Obama cannot even sign a completed Pacific trade deal for two months after negotiations conclude. Then the final accord must be made public for review and comment for two additional months before Congress can take it up. That means even if Congress can complete the fast track bill before its July 4 recess, the actual trade accord could come before Congress late this fall at the earliest, when the presidential primary season will no doubt affect the debate. The politics of trade will only get more fierce then.

PC Key to TPP its a tougher political fight than TPA, passage far from guaranteed, TPA only keeps it a possibility success vital to Asia pivot and swamps alt causesPanda, 15 -- Ankit, foreign affairs analyst, writer, and editor with expertise in international relations, political economy, international security, and crisis diplomacy. editor at The Diplomat since 2013. Researcher on Wikistrats Asia-Pacific and South Asia desks. Former Research Specialist at Princeton University where he worked on international crisis diplomacy, international security, technology policy, and geopolitics. Panda received his A.B., cum laude, in Public and International Affairs from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, The Diplomat, 4/17, http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/is-this-the-congressional-breakthrough-the-trans-pacific-partnership-needed/Is This the Congressional Breakthrough the Trans-Pacific Partnership Needed?Bipartisan legislation granting the U.S. president trade promotion authority was introduced on Thursday. Will it save the TPP?Ending months of uncertainty over the future of the economic leg of the U.S. rebalance to Asia, U.S. congressional leaders agreed on Thursday evening to open the way for President Barack Obama to take the lead on negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on a fast track. The U.S. Senates Finance Committee introduced bipartisan Trade Promotion Authority legislation, known as the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015 (TPA-2015), that sets a range of constraints within which the president must pursue a final TPP agreement, but unencumbers the executive branch from any congressional interference before a final deal is reached with the assent of the 11 other nations involved in the negotiating processa group comprising Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam, in addition to the United States. TPA-2015 will affect future U.S. administrations and sets a general set of principles for all trade negotiations carried out by the executive branch, not just the TPP and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).Under TPA-2015, all future trade agreements that the United States will sign on to must adhere to strict standards on environmental protections, labor, and human rights. The last provision, according to the New York Times reporting, was added as a Republican concession to satisfy the Senate Finance committees ranking Democrat, Senator Ron Wyden. In the months leading up to this moment, weve witnessed an odd partisan alignment where Congressional Republicans have backed a Democratic presidents appeal for trade promotion authority (with the exception of some recalcitrant Republicans who, as a matter of principle, would like to yield as little authority as possible to the current administration). Liberal congressional Democrats, for the most part, have been a thorn in the administrations side over the TPP, raising concerns about the agreements potential to suppress U.S. wages among other issues. As The Diplomat reported in late 2013, 151 House Democrats wrote the White House expressing their opposition to the TPP as a whole and any new TPA, sending signs that the trade agreement might be entirely politically unfeasible for the administration.An important point worth stressing is that while the TPA will simplify the negotiation process, and increase the credibility of the United States Trade Representative and the president in their interactions with foreign leaders, Congress has reserved the capacity to have a final say in the passage of the deal. Under TPA-2015, the Obama administration would be obliged to make the final text of a TPP agreement public at least four months before Congress votes on it. (TPP negotiations have faced public and bipartisan Congressional criticism for their opaqueness.) Congress retains its power, but without TPA-2015, there would be no TPPthat much was a certainty. With this legislation, the TPP, while still a distant light at the end of a long tunnel of negotiations, remains a possibility.The other 11 parties to the TPP negotiations will have taken note of todays announcement and will read the development as an unambiguously positive development. Some states, such as Vietnam, may balk at the human rights provisionan odd constraint for trade negotiations. The timing of TPA-2015 will be particularly welcomed by the administration given that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is scheduled to visit the United States later this month. Japan and the United States represent the two largest economies among the TPP group of 12 who together comprise approximately 40 percent of world GDP.The TPP is the economic crown jewel of the United States Pivotor Rebalanceto Asia. Asia-Pacific states would see a concluded agreement as a guarantee that the United States was committing itself to long-term economic integration in Asia. The U.S. defense secretary, Ashton Carter, likened the agreements strategic importance to that of an additional U.S. aircraft carrier. With Congress imprimatur in hand, Obama now needs to set out on finding an agreement that will not only satisfy Congress but the economic interests of the other 11 states negotiating the TPP. With 19 months left in office, Obama may come to terms with the harsh reality that TPA wasnt the hardest part of getting to the finish line on the TPP after all.Still, the TPA saga is far from over. TPA-2015 still has to gather the necessary votes to come into law.

Obama PC key to TPP even with TPA politics more difficult going forward, fast approval vital to political support congressional docket crowd out link independently derails Behsudi, 15 -- Adam, Trade reporter for POLITICO Pro, Prior to joining POLITICO, he covered international trade policy for Inside U.S. Trade, where he tracked down the latest news on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Politico, 1/2/15, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/trade-outlook-2015-113793.html?hp=t3_rTrade's big breakout Could 2015 be the year of trillion-dollar deals? The new Republican majority in Congress could turn 2015 into the year of the trade deal. Republicans and President Barack Obama are both eager to act on a massive Asia-Pacific deal, an even bigger agreement with the European Union and legislation that would fast-track their approval by Congress all of which have a shot of moving next year. So while many in Washington are bracing for stalemates on issues as wide-ranging as health care to immigration, the climate could be just right to move the kind of bipartisan trade agreements not seen since NAFTA 20 years ago. And with trillions of dollars at stake for both the domestic and global economies, trade could become a signature issue for both Republicans and the president as they look to claim significant political victories. The temperature is rising, and I think, at least now, we have President Obama making very direct comments to support the trade agenda in a way that I hadnt seen in a long while, said Mireya Solis, a senior fellow and Japan expert at the Brookings Institution. The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which would cover about 40 percent of the worlds gross domestic product and about a third of global trade, is expected to get a huge boost from the GOP takeover of the Senate, with Republicans eager to pass legislation that would expedite congressional approval of that and several other pacts. But the trade promotion authority legislation, which would allow Obama to send the agreement to lawmakers for an up-or-down vote with no amendments, could also serve as a legislative vehicle for a slew of other trade bills that have been waiting in the wings, including measures to renew tariff cuts for developing nations, sub-Saharan Africa and U.S. manufacturers, and to reauthorize the Export-Import Bank. The last time Washington saw even a piece of this kind of trade action was in 2011, when Congress approved the South Korea, Colombia and Panama free trade deals in rapid succession. The United States is also expected to finish negotiations on major expansion of an Information Technology Agreement with nearly 80 countries that account for about 90 percent of world technology trade. The deal, which would eliminate duties on a long list of tech products, came within a hairs breadth of concluding this month, but talks broke down after China refused to meet other countries demands for concessions on what goods to make duty-free. The White House will also press forward with the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the U.S. and the 28-nation European Union, a deal even bigger than the TPP, with European Union leaders earlier this month calling for the talks to finish up by the end of 2015. If all of that isnt enough, the U.S. is also pushing a new Environmental Goods Agreement with 13 other members of the World Trade Organization including China and the EU that compose about 86 percent of global trade. Talks on a new global services agreement and a bilateral investment treaty with China also will proceed. Not all of those will get done in 2015, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman said. But we hope its a very productive year both in terms of negotiations and the legislative agenda. Before the biggest trade deals can get done, Obama will need to get lawmakers to give him the legislative authority to expedite their debate and passage. Also known as fast-track legislation, the Obama-backed TPA bill failed to advance earlier this year after outgoing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) refused to take it up out of concern that a vote on the bill before the midterm elections would put Democrats in the politically hazardous position of possibly damaging their support from labor and environmental groups. Even with the GOP majority in the Senate, the bill will still need Democratic support to get through Congress, political observers say. The critical item here is the extent to which the president manages what Ive characterized as intraparty politics for Democrats, said Scott Miller, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. I think everybody has concluded, including myself, that this needs to be a bipartisan effort. House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has said the White House needs to rally support from at least 50 House Democrats to get the bill through the lower chamber no easy task given the post-election decline in the number of trade-friendly Democrats. Underscoring the difficulties the administration could face from intransigent Democrats, the White Houses legislative abilities were tested just this month when countering Democratic opposition to the massive spending package, which barely squeaked through to passage, Miller said. And even if the votes on a fast-track bill can be had, this years stalled effort to get the legislation underway has left little time to spare, especially given that Democratic support could again grow more scarce once the presidential campaign kicks into full gear toward the beginning of 2016. The point isnt lost on congressional trade leaders. Incoming Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) said trade will top the committees agenda in early 2015. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), a Finance committee member and No. 3 in the Senate GOP leadership as Republican Conference chairman, said the bill would likely be one of the first pieces of legislation that emerges from the panel, which has jurisdiction over trade. Trade supporters consider the bill vital to ushering the Asia-Pacific trade talks toward their conclusion because it would give other countries the confidence to resolve major outstanding issues such as access to medicines in developing nations, environmental protections and Japanese agricultural and U.S. auto tariffs without having to worry that any hard-won concessions could be picked apart by congressional amendment. Bilateral talks between the U.S. and Japan on the tariffs issue have proved particularly troublesome for the larger deal. In a breakthrough last month, Tokyo proposed more meaningful tariff cuts on U.S. beef, pork and dairy products, but the negotiations have since stalled again over the United States refusal to meet Japans demands for lower auto parts tariffs. Theyre kind of stuck because nobodys sure where the United States bottom lines are, Miller said. I think thats the reason to get TPA, so all our trading partners know where the Congress bottom line is, and at that point you conclude pretty quickly. The first six months of the year will be a critical window for finishing up the talks given the tight timeline, officials from the TPP countries have said. Even if the pact gets signed, it will still have to go through a legal scrubbing and translation before a bill to ratify the deal can be introduced. That could mean that the implementing legislation would have to be drafted over the August recess with a view to getting the bill to a vote before Thanksgiving, a former Senate Democratic aide speculated. If people are motivated to finish, they could do it really, really quickly assuming they got the votes, the former aide said, adding that the timing that the administration and others are talking about strikes me as incredibly aggressive, but maybe not impossible. In 2011, the House and Senate were able to pass bills ratifying the deals with South Korea, Colombia and Panama in a single day, the aide noted. But those agreements had been concluded in 2006 and 2007 under President George W. Bushs administration and had a number of provisions renegotiated before the Obama admi