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Hugo_G_ Peri urban demographic change

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Beyond the Edge: Australia's First National Peri-Urban Conference La Trobe University Oct 2013
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Peri-Urban Demographic Change by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre , The University of Adelaide Presentation to Beyond the Edge: Australia’s First National Peri-Urban Conference: Explaining Ideas, Practice, Policy and Research, organised by La Trobe University and RMIT, La Trobe University, Melbourne Campus 2 October 2013
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  • 1. Peri-Urban Demographic Change by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre , The University of Adelaide Presentation to Beyond the Edge: Australias First National Peri-Urban Conference: Explaining Ideas, Practice, Policy and Research, organised by La Trobe University and RMIT, La Trobe University, Melbourne Campus 2 October 2013

2. Outline of Presentation Introduction Peri-Urban Areas: An International Perspective Defining Peri-Urban Areas Population Dynamics Natural Increase Internal Migration International Migration Population Characteristics Key Trends and Policy Issues 3. A GLOBAL PHENOMENON Between 2013 and 2050 the worlds population will increase by around 2 billion All of this increase will be in urban areas most in Asia, Africa, South America and the Pacific Most of this increase will be in periurban areas 4. A Period of Exceptional Population Growth in Australia 2006-12 Australian population increased by 2.27 million compared with 1.18 million 2001-6 Net migration gain from overseas has reached unprecedented levels (1.41 million, 2006-12) Fastest growing OECD country However spatial pattern of growth uneven 5. Growth Hot Spots Mining Areas Coastal Areas Outer Suburbs Peri-Urban Areas *Characterised by lagging of infrastructure and service provision. In Australia this is based largely on past population growth rather than present and future population 6. Rethinking The Rural/Urban Dichotomy Blurring of distinction Role of enhanced transport and communication Extension of Functional Metropolitan Regions Reduced tyranny of distance Extended commuting Global phenomenon - eg. In China 7. Defining Peri-Urban Areas No standard definition Attempts over long period (eg Rural-Urban Fringe literature beginning in 1950s) In Australia - ASGC Outer Metropolitan Statistical Divisions - ASGS new Greater Capital Statistical Areas and Significant Urban Areas 8. centres with a population of over 10,000 and contain not only the built up urban area but likely growth over the next 15 years plus immediately associated rural areas. 9. Schematic Representation of Suggested Functional Metropolitan Region 10. Key Features of Peri-Urban Areas The dynamic expanding edge zone of major cities Mix of urban and rural land issues Rapid change in land use with increasingly intensive uses replacing less intensive uses Rapid population change Governance issues and conflicts because of different interest groups Growth of Retirement Communities 11. Key Demographic Features Increasing dynamism and diversity Rapid growth Increasing diversity of population and households Retirement migration, second homes 12. APPROACH TAKEN HERE Two groups of Local Government Areas (a)National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA) on the edge of Metropolitan Areas (b) Peri-Urban Areas Adjoining new metropolitan regions 13. Box 1: The National Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA) Local Government Areas New South Wales Victoria Queensland Western AustraliaSouth AustraliaBlacktown, Camden, Campbelltown, Liverpool, Penrith Casey, Cardinia, Wyndham, Melton, Hume and Whittlesea Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich Gosnells, Wanneroo, Swan, Cockburn, Mandurah, Serpentine -Jarrahdale, Kwinana, Armadale, Rockingham Playford, Mount Barker 14. Adjoining Areas, 2011 New South Wales Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Lithgow, Newcastle, Oberon, Singleton, Upper Lachlan Shire, Wingecarribee, Wollongong Victoria Bass Coast, Baw Baw, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Macedon Ranges, Mitchell, Moorabool, Mount Alexander, Murrindindi, Queenscliff, Surf Coast Queensland Gold Coast, Lockyer Valley, Scenic Rim, Somerset, Sunshine Coast Beverley, Chittering, Gingin, Mandurah, Murray, Northam, Toodyay, Western Australia Wandering, York Tasmania Derwent Valley, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Huon Valley, Southern Midlands South Australia Adelaide Hills - North and Balance, Alexandrina - Coastal and Strathalbyn, Barossa - Angaston, Barossa and Tanunda, Light, Mallala, Mount Barker Central and Balance, Victor Harbor, Yankalilla 15. DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE The population of local areas is shaped by three demographic processes: The excess of births over deaths (natural increase) The excess of immigrants from overseas over emigrants who leave the area and Australia (net international migration) The excess of in-migrants from elsewhere in Australia over out-migrants moving to other parts of Australia (net internal migration) 16. Box 2: Alliance LGAs as a Percent of Australia as a Whole Source: ABS 2011 Census Total population Population growth 2006-11 Household Growth 2006-11 All migrants Recent migrants Persons aged 65+ Persons aged less than 15 Single parent families Internal migrants Persons aged 0-415.9 35.4 31.6 19.0 17.5 11.5 19.0 18.3 16.5 19.4 17. Adjoining Areas as a Percent of Australia as a Whole, 2011 Total population Population Growth 2006-11 Household growth 2006-11 All migrants Recent migrants Persons aged 65+ years Persons aged less than 15 years Single parent families Internal migrants Persons aged 0-4 years9.9 9.4 10.3 7.3 6.3 11.6 9.8 10.3 10.9 3.5 18. AGE STRUCTURE The age composition of areas is fundamental to planning services since demand for all services is influenced by age. It is crucial to recognise that age groups do not all grow at the same rate or at the same rate as the total population. Hence demand for particular services can change rapidly even though there may be little change in the total population size. 19. Alliance LGAs: Age-Sex Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses 2006 (shaded) and 2011 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4150000MalesFemales100000500000 Number50000100000150000 20. Adjoining Areas: Age Sex Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 CensusAdjoining LGAs 2006 (shaded) and 2011 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-480000Males60000Females40000200000 Number20000400006000080000 21. Australia and Alliance LGAs: Age Sex Distribution, 2011 Australia (shaded) and Alliance LGAsAgeMales85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-45Females43210 Percent12345 22. Australia and Adjoining LGAs: Age Sex Distribution, 2011 23. Largest Immigrant Groups in Alliance LGAs, 2011 United Kingdom214,061 Iraq18,892New Zealand113,270 Malaysia14,911India68,573 Germany14527Philippines56,916 Lebanon13763South Africa28,083 Netherlands12335Italy27,537 Malta12121Fiji24,328 Croatia11903Vietnam22,666 Samoa11239Sri Lanka21,862 Turkey11163China21,233 24. Largest Immigrant Groups in Adjoining LGAs, 2011 England New Zealand Scotland South Africa Germany Netherlands Italy China Philippines USA108,473 75,670 14,486 12,978 12,394 9,379 8,602 8,492 8,246 7,383India Japan Ireland FYROM Canada Korea (South) Wales Malaysia Croatia Thailand6,945 4,774 4,601 4,534 4,410 3,893 3,760 3,654 2,958 2,923 25. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Alliance LGAs NumberPercent of Australian TotalFamily109,09519.3Skilled204,48619.145,53628.7359,11720.0Humanitarian Total 26. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Adjoining LGAsVisa Category Family Skilled Humanitarian TotalNumber 18434 1721 33800 53955Percent of Australian Total 5.6 2.0 5.1 5.0 27. Household Dynamics Grow at different rates to population Faster growth than population Larger average size Over-representation of families with children Aged households in retirement areas 28. Alliance LGAs: Households and Families, 2011 Growth in households 2006-11 Percent of households privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings Average size of household Percent of households with two parents and children Percent of households with single parent and children Percent own house outright Percent with mortgage Median monthly mortgage Median weekly rentAlliance 261,418 13.5 1.2 2.8 38.6Australia 616,220 13.9 3.7 2.6 30.713.210.624.5 43.7 $1850 $29531.0 33.1 $1800 $285 29. Adjoining LGAs: Households and Families, 2011 Growth in households 2006-11 Percent of households privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings Average size of household Percent of households with two parents and children Percent of households with single parent and children Percent own house outright Percent with mortgage Average median monthly mortgage Average median weekly rentAdjoining Australia 247,692 616,220 12.7 13.9 3.9 3.7 2.5 2.6 29.9 30.7 11.3 10.6 32.6 31.0 33.2 33.1 $1,527 $1,800 $217 $285 30. Alliance LGAs: Workforce Issues Male participation rate Female participation rate Percent unemployed Youth unemployment Median personal income per week Percent in Professional/Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings with no motor vehicle Percent travel to work by carAlliance 74.3 59.9 6.2 13.3 $598Australia 71.2 59.2 5.6 12.2 $57725.0 6.334.8 9.082.778.2 31. Adjoining LGAs: Workforce IssuesMale participation rate Female participation rate Percent unemployed Youth unemployment Average median personal income per week Percent in Professional /Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings with no motor vehicle Percent travel to work by carAdjoining 68.2 57.0 6.2 13.1 $516 30.6 5.5 87.0Australia 71.2 59.2 5.6 12.2 $577 34.8 9.0 78.2 32. Key Demographic Issues 1 The LGAs are absorbing a disproportionately large share of national growth in both population and households twice their proportionate share on average but greater in several LGAs. They are absorbing a disproportionate share of growth in the dependent children and youth groups. While they have a lower share of the nations rapidly growing aged population, it is growing faster than in the nation as a whole. Absorb a disproportionately large share of new immigrants settling in Australia this is especially marked for humanitarian migrants, almost 1 in 3 of whom settle in these LGAs. Since these groups have especially significant needs of support in the early years of settlement, this represents an important feature of several of the LGAs. 33. Key Demographic Issues 2 LGAs are characterised by immigrant settlement of particular groups including those from Mainly English speaking backgrounds (especially young families), Indian background, Fijian and Philippines-born. More than half of residents in these areas are a migrant or the child of a migrant. LGAs have a disproportionately large share of persons who moved within Australia during the 2006-11 period. This is an important part of the dynamics of these areas and creates challenges for infrastructure and service provision. There is a dominance of working families with mortgages in these areas. There is a disproportionate representation of couples and single parent families with children. 34. CONCLUSION Distinctive demography Need for research on defining PeriUrban areas Distinctive issues, lack infrastructure, services Global issue


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