Human Activities and

Lifestyles

Climate Change Model

Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp.

etc.)

GHG Emissions

Earth Science Oriented• Physics• Chemistry• Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes

Social Science Oriented• Social influences

• Human behavior• Affluence• Diet/food, • geography influences

• Political aspects• Isolation/globalization• Economic drivers• Environmental regulations

• Technology and its implementation• Energy efficiency• Alternative energy sources

Predicting our Climate Future

Emission scenarios

• Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to project what our lives and activities will be for the next century.– What are the possible economic scenarios?– What changes will we have in our society?

• How do these changes influence emissions?

IPCC SRES

• Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • Developed “stories” that would define the

range of possible social systems that we may develop through the 21st century– Economic growth– Population growth– Technology development and adoption– Commitment to the environment– Globalization

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=9#fig4

A1: Global, Economically Oriented

Population growth and decline Technological advances applied

globally Equity in economic development

among regions Extensive fossil fuel use in A1FI

scenario Rapid technology development to

reduce fossil fuels (A1T)

by 2100:o 7 billion populationo $550 trillion GDPo ~970 ppm CO2 (A1FI),

(720 ppm for A1B)

A2: Regional, Economically oriented

Population growth Technological advances,

resource consumption and cultural differences among regions

by 2100:o 15 billion populationo $250 trillion GDPo ~850 ppm CO2

A: Economic Focus

B: Environmental FocusB1: Global, Environmentally

oriented global solutions to economic,

social, and environmental sustainability

no additional climate initiatives service and information oriented

economy reductions in material intensity clean and resource-efficient

technologies

by 2100:o 7 billion populationo $350 trillion GDPo estimated 550 ppm CO2

B2: Regional, Environmentally oriented

local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability

economic equity within regions, but not between regions

less rapid and more diverse technological changes

global policies for climate change mitigation

by 2100: o 10 billion population, o $250 trillion GDPo ~600 PPM CO2

Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios

Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios

A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2

Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios

A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2

Model predictions

IPCC scenarios

350.org

IPCC scenarios

IPCC Data

• Visualization of IPCC climate model results– http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/