HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT OFFICE14 March 2013

RISE OF THE SOUTH:

• TECTONIC SHIFTS

• EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPABILITIES AND CHOICES

GLOBAL REBALANCING

A CHANGING WORLD

1820

1835

1850

1865

1880

1895

1910

1925

1940

1955

1970

1985

2000

2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Brazil, India, ChinaGermany, France, Italy, UK, US, Canada

% S

hare

of

worl

d o

utp

ut

(PP

P)

REALIGNMENT OF WORLD TRADE

A CHANGING WORLD

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

South-South

% s

hare

of

worl

d m

er-

ch

an

dis

e t

rad

e

RAPID HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GLOBE

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.90

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

HDI 1990

HD

I 2

01

2

RwandaUganda

Bangladesh

IndiaGhana

Viet NamIndonesia

ChinaTunisia

Turkey

Brazil

MauritiusMalaysiaMexico

Chile

A CHANGING WORLD

Korea, Rep.

Thailand

Lao PDR

MUCH HUMAN PROGRESS, PARTICULARLY IN LOW HDI COUNTRIES

Avg. Annual Growth rate 2000-12 HDI Spread– highest vs. lowest

Very high HDI

High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Very high HDI High HDI Medium HDI Low HDI0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

MASSIVE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS

1990 (1.8 billion)

Europe and North AmericaAsia-PacificCentral and South America

2030 (4.9 billion)

A CHANGING WORLD

2020 (3.2 billion)

INTERNET CONNECTIVITY

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

South North

Inte

rnet

users

(m

illion

s)

Why have some countries done better than others?

What can we learn from them?

What are the common drivers?

Nurturing

industrial capacities

PROACTIVE DEVELOPMENTAL STATES

DRIVERS

Enhancing public investment in

health and education

Commitment to

long-term human development

Actively

promoting job creation1

43

2

1Investing in

infrastructure to facilitate market access

TAPPING GLOBAL MARKETS

DRIVERS

Investment in people to make the best of trade opportunities

23 Expanding into

non-traditional markets

1 Expanding education access by equalizing funds across regions and municipalities

SOCIAL POLICY INNOVATIONS

DRIVERS

Poverty reduction through innovative cash transfer programmes

Health care for all and targeting the poor

2

3

BRAZIL TURKEY

MEXICO

4 Extending development benefits to the broader society key to accelerating progress

INDIA

How can we sustain human development for the

generations to come?

PROMOTING EQUITY, VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY

SUSTAINING MOMENTUM

Countries with less inequality do better and improve more in human development

1 2

4

Women’s education is essential to reduce gender inequality

Participation and inclusion essential to stability

and social cohesion

3Educated, interconnected youth demand greater

accountability

CONFRONTING ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES

SUSTAINING MOMENTUM

COST OF INACTION: POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON POVERTY

1

To reap a demographic dividend and benefit from

youth bulge, job creation should have priority

IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY?

SUSTAININGMOMENTUM

Education is key to reduce fertility rates

23

Skills formation and productivity gains can help cope with a rapidly aging population

• Governance for a changed world

• Opportunities for new development partnerships

THE RISE OF THE SOUTH

1MORE SPACE FOR NON STATE ACTORSCitizen networks and social media can promote new norms to reinforce accountability of both state and private actors

REDESIGN FOR A NEW ERA

IMPLICATIONS

GLOBAL GOVERNANCEFor fair representation and shared responsibility, 20th century institutions must adapt to 21st century realities

COHERENT PLURALISMRise in regional institutions and finance mechanisms2

3

NEW INSTITUTIONS, NEW MECHANISMS

IMPLICATIONS

$3.36 trillion

$6.84 trillion

• Infrastructure development banks

• New institutions can facilitate regional integration and South-South relationships

• A new South Commission

• Rising economic strength must be matched by a full commitment to human development

• LDCs can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies

• Greater representation for the South and CSOs can accelerate progress on major global challenges

• In a more connected world, the South continues to need the North and the North now needs the South as well

PRIORITIES FOR A NEW ERA