Human exploration update v1

SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)www.sei.aero

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Status Update of Human Exploration Within the United StatesRevision A15 October 2005

Note: Observations are only current as of presentation date. This presentation is only provided for educational purposes. All images are copyright of their respective owners.

Mr. A.C. CharaniaSenior FuturistSpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)


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Vision for Space Exploration


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Destinations: Transportation Links and Infrastructure Segments

Sun-Earth L1 , L2

High Earth OrbitEarth-Moon L1, L2

MoonLow Earth Orbit

Earth

Mars and Asteroids

Earth

’s N

eigh

borh

ood

Acce

ssib

le P

lane

tary

Sur

face

s

Outer Planets and beyond

Sun, Mercury, Venus

Base Image source: Gary L. Martin, Space Architect, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, “NASA’s Strategy for Human and Robotic Exploration”, June 10, 2003


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National Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)

Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond

Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations;

Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and

Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.

THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST THROUGH A ROBUST SPACE

EXPLORATION PROGRAM


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Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) Outline-UNDER REVISION


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Building Blocks of the Vision-UNDER REVISION


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THE REVISION - NASA HQ Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)

The ESAS is a 90-day study that examined many of the larger questions associated with the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE)

- From NASA HQ’s Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation- Provide the analytical support for a number of key near-term decisions for NASA, the White House, and

Congress

Some of the topics the ESAS is reviewing include the requirements for returning to the Moon and extending human exploration to Mars, as well as possibilities for accelerating the development of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV)

This team completed its main work in late Summer 2005 and will start presenting findings to the public

Focus areas- Complete assessment of the top-level Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) requirements and plans to enable the

CEV to provide crew transport to the ISS and to accelerate the development of the CEV and crew launch system to reduce the gap between Shuttle retirement and CEV IOC.

- Definition of top-level requirements and configurations for crew and cargo launch systems to support the lunar and Mars exploration programs.

- Development of a reference lunar exploration architecture concept to support sustained human and robotic lunar exploration operations.

- Identification of key technologies required to enable and significantly enhance these reference exploration systems and reprioritization of near-term and far-term technology investments.


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The International Space Station (ISS)And Its Future


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The Current International Space Station (ISS)


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ISS: Now and to Core Complete (33 Major Elements to Completion)

Source: International Space Station, Introduction and ISS Familiarization, Caris “Skip” Hatfield, Manager, Program Integration Office, April 25, 2005

15 Elements on Orbit About 50% of ISS Configuration

9 at KSC for LaunchP3/P4 TrussS6 TrussP5 TrussNode 2S3/S4 TrussJEM-PS (Pressurized Section)Cupola

9 in ProgressEuropean Columbus Lab (Development Complete)Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator - Canada hand (Development Complete)Centrifuge Accommodation Module (CAM)Node 3JEM – EF & ES (Exposed Facility)JEM – ES (Exposed Section)Russian Science Power Module (SPM)Russian Research Module -1Russian Multipurpose Laboratory Module (MLM)


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ISS Elements: NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF)



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Note: Additional Progress, Soyuz, H-II Transfer Vehicle and Automated Transfer Vehicle flights for crew transport, logistics and resupply are not listed.Source: http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/shuttle/future/, 26 September 2005

Consolidated Launch ManifestSpace Shuttle Flights and ISS Assembly Sequence

ISS U.S. Core Complete after 10A

U.S. Node 2U.S. OrbiterSTS-120

10AUnder review

Fourth starboard truss segment (ITS S6)•Solar Array set and Batteries

U.S. OrbiterSTS-119

15AUnder review

SPACEHAB Single Cargo Module•Third starboard truss segment (ITS S5)•Logistics and Supplies

U.S. Orbiter STS-118

13A.1Under review

Second starboard truss segment (ITS S3/S4)•Solar array set and batteries

U.S. OrbiterSTS-117

13AUnder review

Third port truss segment (ITS P5)•SPACEHAB single cargo module•Logistics and Supplies

U.S. OrbiterSTS-116

12A.1Under review

Second port truss segment (ITS P3/P4)•Solar array set and batteries

U.S. OrbiterSTS-115

12AUnder review

Return to Flight test mission•Utilization and Logistics Flight

DiscoverySTS-121

ULF1.1No earlier than March 2006

Element(s)LaunchVehicle

AssemblyFlightDate

Notes:Additional Progress, Soyuz, H-II Transfer Vehicle and Automated Transfer Vehicle flights for crew transport, logistics and resupply are not listed.

Cupola•EXPRESS Pallet•Extended Duration Orbiter Pallet

U.S. Orbiter14AUnder review

Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle U.S. OrbiterHTV-1Under review

Multi-Purpose Logistics Module (MPLM)•Utilization and Logistics Flight•Crew Rotation

U.S. OrbiterULF5Under review

Japanese Experiment Module Exposed Facility (JEM EF)•Japanese Experiment Logistics Module -Exposed Section (ELM-ES)•Additional Science Power Platform (SPP) solar arrays

U.S. Orbiter2J/AUnder review

Centrifuge Accommodation Module (CAM)•Crew Rotation

U.S. OrbiterUF-7Under review

Science Power Platform (SPP) solar arrays with truss•Multi Purpose Module (MTsM)

U.S. Orbiter9A.1Under review

Universal Docking Module (UDM)Russian Soyuz

3RNovember 2006


U.S. Orbiter ULF3Under review

Kibo Japanese Experiment Module (JEM)•Japanese Remote Manipulator System (JEM RMS)

U.S. Orbiter1JUnder review

Japanese Experiment Module Experiment Logistics Module (JEM ELM PS)•EXPRESS Pallet

U.S. Orbiter1J/AUnder review

Multi-Purpose Logistics Module (MPLM)•Crew Rotation


EXPRESS Pallet•S3 Attached P/L

U.S. OrbiterUF-4.1Under review



Spacelab Pallet carrying "Canada Hand" (Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator)•Extended Duration Orbiter Pallet




European Laboratory - Columbus ModuleU.S. Orbiter1EUnder review

European Automated Transfer VehicleATV1Under review


U.S. OrbiterULF2Under review

Element(s)LaunchVehicle

AssemblyFlightDate

Current ISS Launch Manifest


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International Space Station (ISS) Support After 2010

“The loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia has made us acutely aware that one of the major impediments in fully utilizing the Space Station's capabilities is that we need a more robust logistics capability for crew and cargo than the United States or our international partners have readily available or on the drawing board. For this reason, we plan to leverage our nation's commercial space industry to meet NASA's needs for ISS cargo logistics and possibly crew support.” (Source: Opening Statement by Michael Griffin at a House Science Committee Hearing on The Future of NASA, Tuesday, June 28, 2005)

Possible reduction of total Shuttle flights before 2010 from 23-30 flights to 10-18

NASA and other USG agencies addressing Iran Nonproliferation Act (INA) of 2000

Additional commercial purchases for ISS support- For crew transport, logistics, and resupply- Beyond Progress, Soyuz, Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle, and European Automated Transfer Vehicles

NASA is also currently examining alternative configurations for the ISS- May 2005, NASA initiated the Shuttle/Station Configuration Options Team (SSCOT)- This team is conducting a 60-day study of the configuration options for the ISS and assessing the related

number of flights needed by the Space Shuttle before it retires no later than the year 2010- Scope include ISS assembly, operations, and use and considers such factors as international partner

commitments, research utilization, cost, and ISS sustainability.- This team is expected to complete its work in June/July, with those results integrated into the ongoing

Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)


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ISS Technical Configuration: Approved by the ISS Partnership in January 2005


Multipurpose Laboratory Module (MLM) *

Research Module (RM)*

•RM and MLM are included in Russian plans and launched on Russian vehicles

CAMNode 2U.S. Lab

Canadarm2

SO Truss SegmentPMA 1

Docking Compartment (DC) 1

PMA 3Airlock

Zarya Control Module

Z1 Truss Segment

P1 Truss Segment

S1 Truss Segment

PMA 2

Starboard Photovoltaic Arrays

Express Pallets

SPDM

JEM RMS & Exposed Facility

Mobile Remote Servicer Base System (MBS), Mobile Transporter (MT), Mobile Servicing System (MSS)

ULC2ULC1

Port Photovoltaic Arrays

JEM ELM-PS

JEM PM

Columbus

Zvezda Service Module

Science Power Module (SPM)

ESP-3

AMS

Node 3

ESP-2

S5 Truss Segment

P5 Truss Segment

CupolaNode 1 ESP-1

SM MMOD Shields

Port MT/ CETA Rails

Starboard MT/ CETA Rails

S6 Truss Segment

P6 Truss Segment

S3/4 Truss Segment

P3/4 Truss Segment

Elements Pending Russian Launch

Elements Currently on Orbit

Elements Pending US Shuttle Launch

ESP-4


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NASA ESAS: ISS Completion Options (26 Flights versus 16 Flights)

Source: NASAWatch.com


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ISS Cargo Supply/Delivery Balance with Shuttle Retirement

Source: ISS Commercial Cargo Service:Requirements & Constraints Summary, ISS Commercial Cargo Service, Industry Day Conference, April 25, 2005, Valin Thorn - ISS Strategic Planning & Requirements Office

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Mas

s (K

g)

•Assembly Hardware is not included•Accommodation masses are not included•Crew rotation mass not included

3 ISS Crew 6 ISS Crew 6 ISS Crew

ISS Assembly ISS Assembly Complete

Crew Supplies, Water, and Gas

Internal Maintenance and EVA Hardware

Internal Utilization

External Utilization

External Maintenance

U.S. - Russian Bilateral Obligations

Baseline Capability

Commercial Cargo Services

Matt Scheutz & Neil Lemmons / SABER SAI


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Background on NASA’s Recent Exploration Studies


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Sample Lunar Architecture Elements

Source: Orlando Sentinel


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Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV)

The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) is NASA's proposed series of human spaceflight spacecraft, intended to succeed the space shuttle system. Together with the Earth Departure Stage (EDS), the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM), and the associated launch infrastructure, the CEV is one of the elements of Project Constellation

- Draft Statement of Work for the CEV: December 9, 2004; Final RFP issued: March 1, 2005 - Bidder’s response: May 2, 2005; Selection announcement: June 13, 2005

Two industry-led consortiums to each receive a $28 million contract to come up with a complete design for the CEV and its launch vehicle by early 2006

- Northrop Grumman associated with Boeing as subcontractor associated with Alenia Spazio, ARES Corporation, Draper Laboratory, and United Space Alliance

- Lockheed Martin associated with EADS SPACE Transportation, United Space Alliance, Honeywell, Orbital Sciences, Hamilton Sundstrand, and Wyle Laboratories

NASA had planned to have a suborbital or an Earth orbit fly-off called Flight Application of Spacecraft Technologies (FAST) between two teams' CEV designs before September 1, 2008

- However, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin has indicated that NASA will select one contractor for the CEV in 2006 to permit an earlier date for the start of CEV operations (impact of Exploration Systems Architecture Study)

- “Following these awards a "Call for Improvements" (CFI) based on the results of the Exploration Systems Architecture Study will be issued to the selected contractor(s). CFI proposals will be evaluated for a final down-select decision to a single contractor expected in early 2006.” (Source: http://exploration.nasa.gov/acquisition/cev_procurement3.html)


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Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Possibilities


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Breadth of Space Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicles

Source: AIAA Space 2005 AIAA-2005-6667, Long Beach, CA 30-13 August 2005


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Sample Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicle (Side-Mount)



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Sample Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicle (In-Line)



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Sample CEV Launch Vehicle-SRB Based



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NASA Concept Exploration and Refinement (CE&R) Studies

In September 2004, NASA made eleven Concept Exploration and Refinement (CE&R) contract awards

- Human lunar exploration architecture studies and Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) preliminary concepts- Lead organizations included both traditional large aerospace companies and smaller aerospace firms.

Suggestions for how the commercial sector (including new and/or smaller firms could contribute)- Place commercial propellant depots in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to be available to architecture elements (lunar

architecture elements could be launched dry and refuel in orbit)- Commercial industry get domain over ISS resupply after Space Shuttle retirement where NASA would only

purchase the service given an abbreviated set of requirements- Open an alternative, non-traditional path for CEV development where there would be one large traditional

prime supplier (after a down-select process) but also allow a path for the involvement of a non-traditional supplier. This has been suggested by one of the CE&R contractors Transformational Space (tSpace), an association of non-traditional aerospace suppliers including Scaled Composites (builders of SpaceShipOne)

Source: http://exploration.nasa.gov/documents/cer_reports.html


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Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS)


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Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Concept


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CEV in Possible Support of ISS


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Crew Launch Vehicle


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Cargo Launch Vehicle


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“Single Train” Departing for the Moon After Earth-Orbit Rendezvous (EOR)


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Lunar Surface Activities (starting in 2018, 4 people x 7 days x 2 missions per year)


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Lunar Ascent


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NASA ESAS: Budget Reference

Source: NASAWatch.com


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The New Space Community


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SpaceShipOne and The X-Prize


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Current Launch Capabilities


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10-point “Profile of a Space Tourist”

1) They aren’t rocket scientists.

2) They may be “super-sized”.

3) They won’t really care where you put your spaceport.

4) They shouldn’t be expected to meet stringent physical requirements.

5) They don’t like surprises and expect perfection.

6) They aren’t overly concerned with price or safety.

7) They’re short on time.

8) They’ll likely be men over 50.

9) They will come from around the globe.

10) They’re nothing like the tourists that show up at Disney parks.

Source: Jane Reifert, President of Incredible Adventures, Inc., “Confessions of a Space Tourism Operator”, www.space.com/news/050513_tourism_confessions.html, Leonard David, Space.com, 13 May 2005.


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Recent Quotes from the NASA Administrator

So it is a real dilemma - it is a real dichotomy: how do we engage competition and position ourselves to take advantage of the successes and accept the failures which inevitable occur in that environment while, at the same time, meeting the goals and objectives that we have as managers? What I've come to, after considerable thinking (with some discussion and modifications to come) - for NASA: the best way to do that is to utilize the market that is offered by the International Space Station and its requirements to supply crew and cargo as the years unfold. So, there will - and there must - be a government-derived capability to service the space station even after the shuttle is retired. But because there must be such a capability does not imply to us that that is the way we would most prefer - to have cargo and crew logistics requirements for the station satisfied. What I would like to do is be able to buy those services from industry…There is a line in our budget called "ISS Crew and Cargo". It is not overly well-funded right now - a couple of hundred million dollars…We plan to use that to get us started on that process.

[You can] expect to see the government looking to "make a deal" in a commercial sense. Again, rather than issuing a prime contract focused on process and on very detailed specifications on "how to do" things, [you should] look for a deal-making arrangement where we tell you what it is we want the requested services or good to be able to perform. For those of you that have spent any time in the world of communication satellites - look for that to be the model rather than the CEV procurement.

[You should] look for us to conduct such a competitive procurement - and [you should] look for us to pick a "leader" with whom we will get started - and also to fund a couple of "followers" at the study level in case the leader falls off the track. Because, the leader is only going to continue to get his money if progress continues to be met. We will set up verifiable milestones, agreed upon in the deal, the way that any commercial deal would be done…[You should] look for us to conduct our contracting on a fixed price basis…In exchange for that [you should] look to be required to provide a commitment to sell at a specified price if I provide a commitment to buy - at a specified number…There won't be balloon payments at the end and there won't be "get well" arrangements if you screw up. On the other hand, there will be fairly substantial rewards for people who can deliver.

Source: Mike Griffin Reveals His Commercialization Vision for NASA: Parts 1 and 2, NASA Administrator Mike Griffin Remarks to the Space Transportation Association, Washington, D.C., Tuesday, June 21, 2005, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1034, http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1035, www.nasa.gov/pdf/119275main_ Griffin_STA_21_June_2005.pdf


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“Emerging” Space


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Falcon Launch Vehicle by SpaceX


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Falcon by SpaceX Evolution and Current Launch Manifest

Source: www.spacex.com

TBDFalcon 1

$100 million contract thru 2010

US Air Force

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q4 2008 Swedish Space Corp.

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q3 2008 MDA Corp.

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q2 2008 US Commercial

KwajaleinFalcon 9 Q1 2008Bigelow Aerospace

KwajaleinFalcon 9 Q2 2007 US Government

KwajaleinFalcon 1 Q2 2006Malaysia (ATSB)

VandenbergFalcon 1 Q4 2005US Defense Dept (OSD/NRL)

KwajaleinFalcon 1 Q4 2005US Defense Dept (DARPA)

Departure PointVehicleLaunch DateCustomer

SpaceX Falcon Launch Manifest (ref. 10/14/05)


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Bigelow Aerospace


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Contact Information

Business Address:SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI)1200 Ashwood ParkwaySuite 506Atlanta, GA 30338 U.S.A.

Phone: 770-379-8000Fax: 770-379-8001

Internet:WWW: www.sei.aeroE-mail: [email protected]

Senior Futurist: Mr. A.C. CharaniaPhone: 770-379-8006E-mail: [email protected]

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Human exploration update v1

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