1

HUMAN SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITYPROVOCATIONS

Peter Hayes Nautilus Institute

Global Studies, RMIT Universitywww.nautilus.org

“TRANSFORMING ENERGYINITIATIVES FROM AUSTRALIAN AND INDIAN PERSPECTIVES: ACCESS AND INNOVATION:

Deakin University

October 17, 2012State Library of Victoria

2

Navigation

1. Traditional vs comprehensive security concept

2. Complexity, global scale3. Innovation and technological solutions4. Post-carbon transition competition5. Levels of energy security and sustainability6. Conclusion: networked, adaptive strategies

3

Traditional Energy Security Concept

“assured access to oil, coal, and gas”Supply focus ->

1. reducing vulnerability to foreign threats or pressure;2. preventing a supply crisis from occurring; and3. minimizing the economic and military impact of a supply crisis once it has occurred.

METHODOLOGY =(1) the degree to which a country is energy resource-rich

or energy resource poor,(2) the degree to which market forces are allowed to

operate as compared with the use ofgovernment intervention to set prices, and

(3) the degree to which long-term versus short-termplanning is employed.

UNU-KNCU Global Seminar 4D. Von Hippel 7/2005

Japanese Energy Security as a Building Block for Sustainable Development—Add Efficiency

Supply Diversification Index by Path

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.220

0.240

0.260

0.280

0.300

1990 1995 2000 2010 2020

Business-as-Usual

Alternative

Alternative--Pipeline Gas Separate

Alternative--Pipeline, Effic.Separate

5

Comprehensive Energy Security Concept (US-Japan, PARES project)

UNU-KNCU Global Seminar 6D. Von Hippel 7/2005

Energy Security as a Building Block for Sustainable Development

Electricity Technology Diversification Index by Path

0.060

0.080

0.100

0.120

0.140

0.160

0.180

0.200

0.220

1995 2000 2010 2020

Generation--BAU

Generation--Alternative

Capacity--BAU

Capacity--Alternative

7

2. COMPLEXITY AND GLOBAL SCALE

NASA IMAGE ONE ONE EARTH

Complexity and Global Scale

8

How Many Cities are Involved?

Source: J.V. Henderson et al, Urbanization and City Growth: the Role of Institutions, Brown UniversitySeptember 28, 2006, at: http://www.econ.brown.edu/faculty/henderson/papers/Urbanization%20and%20City%20Growth0406%20revised%20-%20Hyoung0906.pdf

PLUS: 5000 > - <100,000: about 18,900 “urban areas” (early 1990s)Source: See data tables, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, SocioEconomic and Applications Data Center, Columbia University, accessed February 6, 2009, at: http://sedac.ciesin.org/gpw/global.jsp

Total Cities > 5,000 people: roughly 22,000

9

This map shows the geographic distribution of cities. It clearly shows that cities are concentrated in Europe, the eastern United States, Japan, China and India. It is a better map for showing the geography of night time electricity consumption for outdoor lighting than it is for showing the geography of population. For example: the eastern United States is very bright but the more densely populated areas of China and India are not nearly as bright in this image. NASA Image.

10

Mega-regions -> Giga-citiesThe biggest mega-regions, which are at the forefront of the rapid urbanisation sweeping the world, are:

• Hong Kong-Shenhzen-Guangzhou, China, home to about 120 million people;• Nagoya-Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe, Japan, expected to grow to 60 million people by 2015;• Rio de Janeiro-São Paulo region with 43 million people in Brazil.

The same trend on an even larger scale is seen in fast-growing "urban corridors":• West Africa: 600km of urbanisation linking Nigeria, Benin, Togo and Ghana, and driving the entire region's economy;• India: From Mumbai to Dehli;• East Asia: Four connected megalopolises and 77 separate cities of over 200,000 people each occur from Beijing to Tokyo via Pyongyang and Seoul.

11

BESOTO: Beijing-Seoul-Tokyo

BESOTO urban corridor--in 1994, it already included 98 million urban dwellers living in 112 cities each with 200,000 or more people, and stretching over 1,500 km

Complexity of Global Governance

12

States: 195Cities > 100,000: 2,360“Urban areas” > 5000 < 100,000: 18,600International NGOs : 25,000Multinational Corporations: 63,000Total 109,155

(without Desa-kota layer)

13

Dipak Gyawali - Re-imagining Desakota through a "toad’s eye science" approach

http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/dipak-gyawali-reimagining-desakota-through-a-toads-eye-science-approach

14

Complexity of Global Governance

15

States: 195Cities > 100,000: 2,360“Urban areas” > 5000 < 100,000: 18,600International NGOs : 25,000Multinational Corporations: 63,000Total 109,155

(Add Desa-kota layer = ~ 3 million + villages < 5K)

16

• Inadequate income • Lack of protected, legal assets• Inadequate shelter• Lack of infrastructure and access to basic

services • Inadequate legal protection• Lack of representation

and political voice• Cross-cutting theme of effects of climate

change

And yet, urbanization trends continue and in fact accelerate

Urban Context

Multi- Dimensional Aspects of Indonesian Urban Poverty

17

Transformative technologies, sometime called platform technologies — the most recent example is the Internet — serve as springboards for technological change in many sectors at once.

The steam engine, machine gun and genetic crop modification led to pervasive and massive impacts on the world economy, warfare and agriculture, respectively.

Transformative technologies occur rarely, perhaps once or twice in a generation, and are inherently hard to foresee or recognize as they emerge.

3. TRANSFORMATIVE TECHNOLOGIES

18

19

SMART POWER GRIDS & DECENTRALIZED GENERATION

use information technology to radically change the way electricity is delivered. Smart grids monitor the flow of electricity to and from generators and consumers, use transmission lines to reduce power loss and accommodate intermittent and renewable power generators, enhance multi-layered network resilience and facilitate demand side management

20

Integrate with Decentralized Generation, eg hypercar

To become transformative, smart grids need to couple with new technologies for urban redesign, transportation systems and new modes of power generation, distribution and end use — all of which are driven by sustainability imperatives. Of these, the vision of electric and hybrid cars serving as generators when not in use or re-charging is a possible combination that makes the smart grid and hyper-car, considered together in a fusion, truly transformative

21

Source: http://coolroofcontractor.com/

PLUS RADICAL END USE EFFICIENCY—LIKE OFF WHITE ROOVES!

• Sustainability and Nano-Technology Manufacturing at the nano, or molecular, level is already big business. Two sustainability applications have immense potential to increase the efficiency of energy use and production. The first is the use of specialized coatings to achieve a cooling effect on buildings and pavements. Most of these man-made surfaces are produced with little regard to their impact on a technical measurement called albedo, which is the amount of light that is reflected rather than absorbed by a surface. Roofs, for example, could use materials that provide a high near-infrared radiation reflectance basecoat, and a cool topcoat (tens of microns) with weak near-infrared radiation absorption. Doing so, according to a recent technical analysis, would increase their albedo by about 10 percent, and result in cooler surfaces.10 If implemented globally to cool roofs, this relatively simple measure could avoid huge amounts of local cooling requirements and offset as much as 24 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, at low cost. The same principle applies to pavements (equivalent to another 20 gigatonnes of emissions), and indeed, to any human object that is exposed to the sun and requires cooling. Acrylic, elastic polymers and cement coatings and plastic membranes are already available for roofs and to a lesser extent for pavements. However, widespread use would likely generate new nano-tech based coatings that would interact with intelligent building materials and structures in ways that would anticipate and adapt to the operational needs of the smart grid — and a stock of decentralized generators based on the hyper-vehicle fleet.

H. Akbari, S. Menon and A. Rosenfeld, “Global Cooling: Increasing World-Wide Urban Albedos To Off set CO2,” Climatic Change, 94, 2009, pp.275-296.

22From: E. Chandler, The Helios Project at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; presentation, May 11, 2009.

• Sustainability and Nano-Technology Manufacturing at the nano, or molecular, level is already big business. Two sustainability applications have immense potential to increase the efficiency of energy use and production. The first is the use of specialized coatings to achieve a cooling effect on buildings and pavements. Most of these man-made surfaces are produced with little regard to their impact on a technical measurement called albedo, which is the amount of light that is reflected rather than absorbed by a surface. Roofs, for example, could use materials that provide a high near-infrared radiation reflectance basecoat, and a cool topcoat (tens of microns) with weak near-infrared radiation absorption. Doing so, according to a recent technical analysis, would increase their albedo by about 10 percent, and result in cooler surfaces.10 If implemented globally to cool roofs, this relatively simple measure could avoid huge amounts of local cooling requirements and offset as much as 24 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, at low cost. The same principle applies to pavements (equivalent to another 20 gigatonnes of emissions), and indeed, to any human object that is exposed to the sun and requires cooling. Acrylic, elastic polymers and cement coatings and plastic membranes are already available for roofs and to a lesser extent for pavements. However, widespread use would likely generate new nano-tech based coatings that would interact with intelligent building materials and structures in ways that would anticipate and adapt to the operational needs of the smart grid — and a stock of decentralized generators based on the hyper-vehicle fleet.

CARBON NANO-TUBE PV SLUDGE?

23

In 2008, approximately 5.1 billion tons of dry cargo was transported by sea, which represents approximately 57% of total global seaborne trade. Drybulk cargo is cargo that is shipped in large quantities and can be easily stowed in a single hold with little risk of cargo damage. Drybulk cargo is generally categorized as either major drybulk or minor drybulk. Major drybulk cargo constitutes the vast majority of drybulk cargo by weight, and includes, among other things, iron ore, coal and grain. Minor drybulk cargo includes products such as agricultural products (other than grain), mineral cargoes, cement, forest products and steel products and represents the balance of the drybulk industry. Other drybulk cargo is categorized as container cargo, which is shipped in 20- or 40- foot containers and includes a wide variety of either finished products, or non-container cargo, which includes other drybulk cargoes that cannot be shipped in a container due to size, weight or handling requirements, such as large manufacturing equipment or large industrial vehicles. The balance of seaborne trade involves the transport of liquids or gases in tanker vessels and includes products such as oil, refined oil products and chemicaRead more: http://www.faqs.org/sec-filings/091014/Baltic-Trading-Ltd_S-1/#ixzz0nNbT7qcd

4. POST-CARBON TRANSITION:

THERE’S A CARBON MONSTER OUT THERE!

24

The fossil fuel logistics chain…

See the World Ports Climate Declaration from C40 World Ports Climate Conference in Rotterdam, and the papers from which the following slides are drawn at: http://wpccrotterdam.com/conclusions

25Source: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/lecz.jsp

Port-City Problem: How to adapt to coming storm of change?

• Impact of climate change on transportation less well understood than GHG emissions

• Climate models cannot yet predict local impacts with any certainty

• Ports lack specific information on:– Local impacts from climate change– Timescales of impact– Probabilities of impact– Indirect impacts

27

Winner Cities: Rotterdam

28

29

Source: G. Schremp, “Overview, Background, Methodologies and Outlook--Terminals & Retail Infrastructure,” Joint Transportation and IEPR Committee Workshop, Sacramento, April 14, 2009

30

Source: R. Iher, “Renewable Fuel Terminal Infrastructure,” California Energy Commission Workshop, April 2009 at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009_energypolicy/documents/2009-04-14-15_workshop/presentations/Day-1/05-Lyer_Rahul_Primafuel_CEC_EnergyInfrastructureWorkshop.pdf

31

Source: R. Iher, “Renewable Fuel Terminal Infrastructure,” California Energy Commission Workshop, April 2009 at: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009_energypolicy/documents/2009-04-14-15_workshop/presentations/Day-1/05-Lyer_Rahul_Primafuel_CEC_EnergyInfrastructureWorkshop.pdf

32

Figure 3.23: Expansion of Brazil Ethanol Export Infrastructure

Figure 3.24: California Ethanol Supply Sources 2004-2008

Currently, five of the six California ethanol facilities are idle with a collective production capacity of nearly 240 million gallons per year. Two of the California facilities, owned by Pacific Ethanol, are in Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. The remaining three idle ethanol plants are temporarily closed due to poor economic operating conditions (costs are exceeding revenue streams)…Marine imports of ethanol to California have been limited over the last several years due primarily to an abundance of ethanol production capacity in the United States and the importtariff for most sources of foreign ethanol. Consequently, the capacity to receive significant quantities of ethanol via marine vessel has not been needed. However, that situation could bealtered due to the changing mix of ethanol sources and the potential impact on marine import infrastructure requirements. At this time, it is uncertain how much incremental ethanol could be imported into California via marine vessel. Over the short‐term, operators of marine import facilities could commit additional storage tanks for receiving ethanol imports. The conversion of storage tanks from one type of service (gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel) to ethanol service does not pose a technical difficulty. These types of decisions would reduce the ability of individual marine facility operators to import other petroleum products, unless overall import capacity was to increase.If California were to transition to greater use of Brazilian ethanol, there are two pathways for this foreign ethanol to enter California: marine vessels directly from Brazil and rail shipmentsfrom another marine terminal outside of California. Along these lines, Primafuel has received permits to construct a new marine terminal in Sacramento that is designed to import up to 400million gallons of ethanol per year.78 At this time, construction has not been initiated. If the facility were to be operational by January 2011, construction would need to begin before the end of 2009. Reticence on the part of potential customers appears to be the primary hurdle at this time. The proposed Sacramento renewable fuels hub terminal would greatly increase themarine ethanol import capability of Northern California such that there should be sufficient capacity to receive Brazilian ethanol over the near to mid‐term period…

Source: G. Schremp et al, Transportation Energy Forecasts And Analyses For The 2009Integrated Energy Policy Report , August 2009 CEC-600-2009-012-SD, p. 83, 91-92.

33

Reverse flow to incoming fossil fuel during transition to post-carbon economy?

Carbon Dioxide Capture and Sequestration

Source: G. Rau, “Evaluation of a CO2 Mitigation Option for California Coastal Power Plants: Using Marine Chemistry to Mitigate CO2 and Ocean Acidification,” Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, and Carbon Management Program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 6th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sept. 8-10, 2009, Sacramento, CA

Or as char into soil restoration

34

5. NE Asia Levels of Energy Security—Zooming in…Infrastructure Cooperation: Gas Pipelines from RFE, Siberia to

China, ROK, Japan

35

36

Regional Security/Energy Security and the DPRK

3737

RFEVladivostok

CHEONGJIN

GAESUNG

(50Hz 500kV AC)

RFE Vladivostok

ROK AC SYSTEM

(60Hz 345kV AC)

DPRK AC SYSTEM

PYONGYANG orBorder of ROK-DPRK

DPRK AC SYSTEM

KEDO NP

Electricity Grid Interconnection, RFE-DPRK-ROK

UNITS: PETAJOULES (PJ)COAL & COKE

CRUDE OIL

REF. PROD

HYDRO/NUCL.

WOOD/ BIOMASS

CHAR-COAL HEAT ELEC. TOTAL

ENERGY SUPPLY 357 23 12 43 207 - - 1 643

Domestic Production 447 1 - 43 195 - - 686 Imports 4 22 12 - 12 - 2 51 Exports 93 - 0 - - - 0 94 Stock Changes - - - - - - - -

ENERGY TRANSF. (91) (23) 17 (43) (6) 2 4 36 (104)

Electricity Generation (63) - (5) (43) - - 4 57 (49) Petroleum Refining - (23) 23 - - - - - Coal Prod./Prep. (21) - - - - - (3) (24) Charcoal Production - - - - (6) 2 - (4) District Heat Production (2) (0) 1 (1) Own Use - - (1) - - - (3) (4) Losses (5) - - - - - (1) (15) (22)

FUELS FOR FINAL CONS. 266 - 29 - 201 2 4 37 539

ENERGY DEMAND 266 - 29 - 201 2 4 37 539

INDUSTRIAL 146 - 5 - 1 - - 14 166 TRANSPORT - - 10 - 1 - - 4 15 RESIDENTIAL 76 - 2 - 156 2 3 4 242 AGRICULTURAL 5 - 1 - 24 - - 1 32 FISHERIES 0 - 1 - - - - 0 1 MILITARY 20 - 9 - 8 - - 8 45 PUBLIC/COMML 19 - 0 - 6 - 1 5 31 NON-ENERGY 1 1 6 8 - Elect. Gen. (Gr. TWhe) 3.73 - 0.20 11.87 - - - 15.80

DPRK Energy Analysis: 2009 Balance

Notes: 1 PJ is 1015 joules, ~ to energy in 24752 tonnes HFO; a 539 PJ/y economy is ~ of 13.5 million tonnes of HFO/yr6-700000 tonnes HFO = ~ 5% DPRK annual energy use in 2009

~20-24 million North Koreans currently use about 2.5 * energy as ½ million Washington DC residents (and ~1/3 NK final energy demand is met by biomass)

38

39

Biomass Energy and Deforestation in DPRK• Forestry Sector: Data from Remote Sensing

– About 10% deforestation since 1995; – FAO—10% loss since 2000– Deforestation leading to flooding, landslides– Growing stocks ~40-60 cu.m./ha– Significant conversion, 1999 to 2004, of stocked

forest to unstocked forest (plants, but no trees) and denuded forest

40

DPRK INFRASTRUCTURE: IMAGES

41

DPRK INFRASTRUCTURE: IMAGES

42

DPRK ENERGY DEMAND: IMAGES

43

DPRK INFRASTRUCTURE: IMAGES

44

45

Unhari Village

46

Nautilus Engagement Activities with DPRK Delegations

• DPRK Study Tour Missions to US• Unhari Village Humanitarian Wind Energy Project• Building Energy Efficiency Project (2008)

Training Should be Done at Every Step, Every Level: Wind Turbine Power-house Training

American and Korean

Engineers Working Atop

Windmill Tower

Installing "Ground Rods" at Unhari with DPRK Engineer

47

DPRK Building Energy

Efficiency Training Project

48

6. Networked adaptive responses

Theoretical frameworksTrans-governmental Agent based modellingComplexity and adaptive managementCity CC mitigation-adaptation networksEast Bay Green PartnershipMetro Tokyo Cap and Trade

49

“Emergent” Urban CC Transnational Networks• Alliance for Healthy Cities: http://www.alliance-healthycities.com/ • Delta Alliance: http://www.deltaalliance.nl/nl/25222734-Home.html • Alliance for Resilient Cities (ARC): http://www.cleanairpartnership.org/arc.php • C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group: http://www.c40cities.org/ • Climate Alliance: http://www.klimabuendnis.org/ • ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection (CCP): http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id=800 • South African Cities Network: http://www.sacities.net/2007/jan23_world2007.stm • UCLG Climate Campaign:

http://www.cities-localgovernments.org/uclg/index.asp?pag=template.asp&L=EN&ID=6• 2005 U.S. Mayors Climate Change Protection Agreement• Milan example To date: mitigation focused; weak; low politics; not players in COP for CC Treaty• Urban Resilience Network (3D Forum—poverty-slums, CCA, urban, World Urban Forum)• Adaptnet http://gc.nautilus.org/gci/adaptnet/ (free weekly update by email)

See: M. Betsill, H. Bulkeley, “Cities and the Multilevel Governanceof Global Climate Change,” Global Governance 12 (2006), 141–159; (see K. Trisolini, J. Zasloff, Cities, Land Use, and the Global Commons: Genesis and the Urban Politics of Climate Change, UCLA School of Law Public Law & Legal Theory Research Paper Series Research Paper No. 08-22, at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1267314 ); summary in IIED, Climate Change, Cities and Urban Networks, 2008)