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Triple Threats for the Human FutureWill Civilization Arrive?

L. David Roper

Forward by Michael Abraham

This file is http://www.roperld.com/science/HumanFuture.pdf


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Forward

Saudi Arabian proverb: My grandfather rode a camel, my father drove a car, I fly a jetplane, my son will ride a camel.

Special.

As the twenty-first century dawns, citizens of the planet earth benefit from amazing technologies. TheHubbell space telescope and radio interferometry array telescopes bring us views of our universe that

boggle the imagination. Intergalactic distances, fabulous supernovae and black holes warping time andspace indicate a universe of unfathomable energy, size, and scope.

Yet what astronomer Carl Sagan called our Pale Blue Dot, the starship Earth, stands apart, special.

Special, as a verbal construct, is arguably the most browbeaten word in the lexicon. Its been diced and

sliced, mashed, trampled and marginalized. Special delivery! Special: two for one! Special offer; acttoday!

Before we assaulted it, special meant this: distinguished by some unusual quality; especially: being in

some way superior. And no word better described our home planet, for, as far as we know, it is the onlyone that supports life. Thats it. As far as we know, were utterly and completely alone.

In the universe, energy is everywhere, grand and fabulous in places, scarce in others. Life, however, isexcruciatingly rare. Energy can and does exist without life, but life cannot exist without energy. The

story of life on earth, of microbes and mastodons, of amoeba and apples and antelopes, of condors andcornstalks and caterpillars, of bacteria and broccoli and bears, is about the use and consumption of

energy.

Paradoxically, whats so rare in the universe is almost overwhelming in profusion here on earth. Life

here is so tenacious, fecund, and resolute; its sometimes easy to take for granted. Always there. Likeso many things we experience in profusion, its difficult to grasp the specialness.

And maybe thats the root of our problem.

Millennia ago on the steppes of Eurasia emerged a new species, one destined to impact the earth, itsother species, and itself in unprecedented ways. Homo sapiens, wise man, was neither bigger, moreagile, nor faster than the proto-humans from which he evolved, yet he possessed many competitive

advantages that would serve him well. He had an opposed thumb, making grasping tools easy. He hadan uncanny, unprecedented ability to communicate with other members of his species. And he had

reasoning and thought powers as never before. He was omnivorous, shrewd and adaptable. His rangespread and his populations grew, withstanding periods of feast and famine, heat and cool. He used thelast Ice Age to his advantage, bridging to the New World and further expanding his numbers and

predominance.


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But in spite of his successes, when the glaciers retreated ten thousand years ago, worldwide humanpopulation numbered some five million, less than the current population of my native state of Virginia.

When Christ sat with his disciples at his final Passover Seder, merely 250 million souls populated theearth. It took 1800 more years to hit a billion. Since then, the population has exploded nearly seven-

fold and growth continues unabated.

In the 1995 essay, Energy and Human Evolution, David Price tells the tale of a planned introduction of a

herd of 29 reindeer introduced to St. Matthew Island in the Bering Sea in 1944. With an untouchedbounty of the lichen on which they feed, by 1957 the population, given ample food and no predators,

reached 1350 and by 1963 was 6000.

Well revisit this herd in a moment, but lets return to our human population.

Competing theories vie for acceptance as to how and why human populations soared, beginning about

200 years ago. Did humans become more fecund? No, offspring production was about the same asbefore. Were humans suddenly smarter? No, the human brain reached its current size and acumen

thousands of years earlier. The correct answer is simple and intuitive: humans found and exploited anew energy source, fossil fuels. This endowment, always buried literally beneath their feet, had alwaysbeen there for any species at any time to use, but neither the grasshopper, the dog, the housefly, nor the

jellyfish had the intelligence, the dexterity, or the need to make use of it, as neither did humanstheretofore.

So profoundly important was the discovery and use of energy from fossil fuels, particularly petroleum,in the population explosion that we might see humans as having almost literally evolved into a new

species, Homo petroleum: Oil Man. Oil Man, not in the J. R. Ewing, Boone Pickens, or Jed Clampettmodel, but in the form of John Q. Consumer, physically resembled Homo sapiens, but clearly differentin his prodigious appetite for food, clothing, recreation, travel, refrigerators, color TVs, and all the other

accouterments of what we now think of as everyday modern life.

Oil Mans newfound gift of coal, oil, and natural gas let a farmer grow enough food not to feed a few asbefore but to feed hundreds. Furthermore, Oil Man could build skyscrapers, interstate highway systems,particle accelerators, microwave ovens, space telescopes, and so much more. Oil was quickly put to use

not solely in food production, but in plastics, fabrics, pharmaceuticals, and notably transportation. OilMan radically re-engineered his living environments to consume fuel in frantic, profligate ways. Heat

trapping greenhouse gasses, previously encapsulated in these fuels, were liberated into the atmosphere inunprecedented quantities, blocking radiant energy from breaching into the near infinite heat sink ofspace. Oil Man competed aggressively for land and other resources with many species, driving untold

numbers to extinction. Most measures of environmental health of the planet have become significantlynegative, including top soil, fisheries, aquifers, and surface fresh-water.

Oil Mans skyrocketing numbers resembled the reindeer on St. Mathews Island; the bounty in fossilfuels was to Oil Man what the untouched lichen were to the reindeer. Oil Man was like a newly

introduced species on his own planet, feasting voraciously on an energy source, always there but neverbefore touched.


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Growth, growth, growth thats all weve known World automobile production is doubling everyten years; human population growth is like nothing that has happened in all of geologic history. The

world will only tolerate so many doublings of anything whether its power plants or grasshoppers.M. King Hubbert, 1975

Today informed, sentient, and rational Oil Men almost universally conclude that a crossroads is at hand.We occupy a society in which growth is revered, worshipped by politicians, economic developers, and

demographers, and accepted as a normal condition of existence. The emergence of a competing view,that the only thing that grows unrestrained is cancer, is sacrilegious, blasphemous. Yet growth has only

been possible with a continuously expanding availability and consumption of fossil fuel energy. OilMan is in natures crosshairs, standing like a blinded deer in the headlights, facing an impendingcollision between continually escalating demand and peaking supply.

Thirty years ago, Professor David Roper wrote a book entitled, Where have all the metals gone,

documenting the peak in production of scores of valuable minerals and energy sources. Domesticproduction of gold, silver, mercury, lead, and many others were found to already be in highly depleted

states even then. As alarming as his conclusions were, the sky didnt fall. Our economy, lifestyle, andconsumptive patterns have continued unabated. Weve always been able to find ready substitutes. Oil,because of its amazing energy density, transportability, and versatility, will be different. Its looming

scarcity will not be easily replaced.

Many esteemed oil production geologists believe the peak of worldwide oil production is neigh. And

with the peak in oil discovery forty years ago, who can doubt them? The when and how disruptivequestions of Peak Oil are open to debate, but the whether is a certainty.

The threat is real, imminent, and dreadfully, frightfully serious.

Dr. Roper, in this volume, lends his thorough, analytic and mathematical voice to the growing choir ofalarmists, warning us in his use of the tools of scientists: charts, graphs, and displays, of the impending

threats of Peak Oil, Global Warming, and the next Major Ice Age. It is important and valuable that hehas done so, as the issues are complex and the means of understanding vary from interested person toperson.

The trifecta of impending maladies of which Dr. Roper writes is completely predictable. Our ability, or

inability, as a society to begin the process of adequate preparation will define our generation.

Incidentally, the reindeer herd on St. Mathews Island effectively consumed all the lichen on the ent irety

of the island and collapsed in one season from 6000 to 41 females and one apparently dysfunctionalmale.

Nature doesnt care if were having a nice day.

Michael Abraham, Blacksburg, Virginia April 2006


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Preface

References are often made to Western Civilization or civilization in books, magazines, newspapersand speeches by politicians. When I encounter the word civilization I often wonder what is meant by

the word.

The on-line encyclopedia http://www.wikipedia.com defines civilization as follows:

By the most minimal, literal definition, a civilization is a complex society. Technically,

anthropologists distinguish civilizations in which many of the people live in cities and get theirfood from agriculture, from band and tribal societies in which people live in small settlements or

nomadic groups and subsist by foraging, hunting, or working small horticultural gardens. Whenused in this sense, civilization is an exclusive term, applied to some human groups and notothers.

The second definition is widely used; for example, as in the title of the bookThe Clash of Civilizationsand the Remaking of World Orderby Samuel P. Huntington.

I would transfer the conventional definition for civilization to be part of the definitions for

industrialization and urbanization.

There is a computer game called Civilization. It involves game players as nations accruing resourcesfor their survival and vanity and involves much fighting over control of those resources. That is, it is asomewhat realistic game about what happens in the real World.

I prefer a loftier simpler definition of civilization not mentioned in Wikipedia:

A civilization is a society in which the basic needs (shelter, sustenance and meaningful

contributing work) of all its members are achieved through cooperation among its

members.

The smallest unit of a civilized society is a household (often called a family) working together for the

good of all members of the family. The next smallest unit of civilization is a local community with itsmembers cooperating for the good of all, then regional communities, then continental communities and,

finally, a cooperating planetary community. For the World to be civilized by my definitioncooperation for mutual benefit among humans would have to occur at all of these geographical scales. Itappears that being civilized becomes more difficult the larger the geographic region involved. Words

that also describe a civilized society are a nurturing community.

By my definition no truly civilized society has ever existed in the World. Proto-civilizations haveexisted to varying degrees of being civilized. See Chapter 7.

The degree to which humans are civilized will be sorely tested in the near and far future as the TripleThreats discussed in this book plague humans.


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Many books have been written with the theme Can Civilization Survive? For example: GlobalWarming: Can Civilization Survive? by Paul Brown. Since by my definition no civilization has ever

existed, I think a better question to ask is Will civilization arrive?

So, the question this book addresses is Will civilizationarrive? as human societies try to cope with

the extreme stresses that they will undergo as the end of the Petroleum Age, increasing AnthropologicalGlobal Warming and the next Major Ice Age occur. See Chapter 1.

However, the messages of this book are not all distressing. I show that there is hope if humans come to

understand the dangers and act now to make survival of humans more likely in the future. The remaininghalf of crude oil and natural gas must be used to develop the infrastructure for renewable energy sourcesand recycling of materials. If the current rates of growth of wind power, photovoltaic power and

biodiesel production are enhanced by reasonable amounts, these renewable sources of energy canprovide replacements for declining crude oil and natural gas extraction and make it possible to slowly

and carefully use some coal and nuclear energy to help further develop infrastructure for eventualsustainable renewable energy and recycled materials use. Other minor sources, if increased in magnitude

can fill in to make the vision of a Multi-Source-Distributed-Energy System (MSDES) future possible.For such an energy system to work, World population must be stabilized and eventually reduced by pre-conception birth control and education of women. In any case, World population will be reduced, either

by intentional more pleasant means or by very undesirable means. If fact, the latter is already happening.

My emphasis is on the survival of humans into the far and not-so-far future on Earth. Of course, plants

and other animals must also survive, if humans are going to survive. The current rapid extinction ofother animals and plants by human activities must be curbed. Wilson (Wilson, 2002) and Benford

(Benford, 2000) discuss possible ways to assure survival of a complex biodiversity into the far future.This book presents a more comprehensive view of the threats to the survival of humans (and plants andother animals) into the near and far future than any other book that has been published.

This book presents much data and discussion of those data. I have read too many books that discuss

quantitative data without presenting the data for the reader to see; so I prefer to err on the side of perhapstoo much data. The best way to present so much data is by graphs. Study carefully the many graphs thatI present, as they contain a wealth of information, not all of which I discuss.

Some mathematical equations are occasionally used. A reader can skip over them.

This book refers to many Internet web pages. Since the average lifetime of an Internet web page isprobably only a few years, some of the Internet references may not be valid in the near future. One can

often find another version of a specific page by backing up on the web address to parent directories orsearch for a title or collection of words.

My training and professional life was in theoretical particle physics, but I also did research in theoreticalbiophysics and resources depletion. I am a scientist who is capable of putting together information from

several fields of study, some of which are often neglected by the specialists in the separate fieldsinvolved. The interactions of data between different fields are often more important for human welfare

than are the isolated data from the separate fields. I believe that this book presents a more unified viewof the interactions of the triple threats that are its theme than any other book that has been published.


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The author has benefited from discussions with his beloved wife, Prof. Jeanne Baril Roper, Prof.

Richard A. Arndt, Prof. Linda Hinov and Michael Abraham.


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Table of Contents

Forward........................................................................................................................................................2Preface .........................................................................................................................................................5Table of Contents.........................................................................................................................................8

Figures .......................................................................................................................................................10Chapter 1. Triple Threats for the Human Future.................................................................................14

Introduction............................................................................................................................................14Threat 1: The End of the Oil Age ..........................................................................................................14Threat 2: Anthropogenic Global Warming............................................................................................15

Threat 3: The Next Major Ice Age ........................................................................................................15Troubles Ahead......................................................................................................................................15

How Can Humans get from Now to 1000 Years from Now?................................................................16Chapter 2. Anthropogenic Global Warming: It Started Long Ago .....................................................17

Introduction............................................................................................................................................17

Neolithic Global Warming ....................................................................................................................18

North Atlantic Ocean Currents ..............................................................................................................20Global Warming and Hurricanes ...........................................................................................................24Can Humans Control Future Global Warming? ....................................................................................25The Next Major Ice Age ........................................................................................................................30

Chapter 3. A World Energy Plan Now and for the Future ..................................................................31Introduction............................................................................................................................................31

Nonrenewable Energy Sources..............................................................................................................32Crude Oil Extraction in the United States .........................................................................................32Crude oil Extraction for the World....................................................................................................33

Natural-Gas Extraction......................................................................................................................46Methane Extraction from Methane Hydrates ....................................................................................49

Coal Extraction..................................................................................................................................50Uranium Extraction...........................................................................................................................52Comparison of World Energy Minerals Extraction Rates.................................................................57

Miraculous Energy Sources...................................................................................................................59Need for a Multi-Source Distributed Energy System............................................................................61

Hybrid Vehicles .................................................................................................................................61

Plug-in/Gridable Hybrid and Electric Vehicles.................................................................................66Biodiesel for Vehicle Fuel and Heating.............................................................................................68

Ethanol for Vehicle Fuel....................................................................................................................71Methanol for Vehicle Fuel.................................................................................................................74Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles?...........................................................................................................75

Multiple Energy Sources ...................................................................................................................76Wind Power .......................................................................................................................................78

Photovoltaic Power............................................................................................................................79General Solar Power ..........................................................................................................................80Geothermal Power .............................................................................................................................82

Conservation as an Energy Source.................................................................................................84Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................84

Chapter 4. The Next Major Ice Age ....................................................................................................86


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The last Four Major Ice Ages over the last 425,000 Years...................................................................86Evolution of Homo sapiens ...................................................................................................................88

Predictions for the Next Two Major Ice Ages.......................................................................................89Can Humans Keep the Next Major Ice Age from Occurring? ..............................................................95

Chapter 5. World Population Control..................................................................................................97

Introduction............................................................................................................................................97Pre-Conception Birth Control................................................................................................................99

Post-Conception Birth Control ..............................................................................................................99Educating Women ...............................................................................................................................100

Chapter 6. Storage for the Future ......................................................................................................101Carbon Dioxide Storage ......................................................................................................................101Knowledge Storage..............................................................................................................................101

Chapter 7. Will Civilization Arrive? .................................................................................................105Afterward: Advice to Earth from An Extraterrestrial..............................................................................109

The need to limit the population of your planet ..................................................................................110The need to use nonrenewable energy resources for developing infrastructure for using renewable

energy sources .....................................................................................................................................110The need to recycle nonrenewable materials as much as possible ......................................................110Do it now! ............................................................................................................................................111

Glossary...................................................................................................................................................113References................................................................................................................................................115Index ........................................................................................................................................................118

Author ......................................................................................................................................................124


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Figures

Figure 2-1. Vostok Antarctica atmospheric temperature (right axis) from -425,000 years to now asdetermined from deuterium concentrations in ice cores (Petit, 1999) and North-Pole summer

insolation (left axis) from -425,000 to +250,000 years calculated using the Berger code (Berger,1991). .................................................................................................................................................17

Figure 2-2. North-Pole summer insolation from -15,000 years to 10,000 years into the future. ..............18Figure 2-3. Neolithic Global Warming. This is taken from Ruddimans Scientific American article. It

illustrates the thesis that the entry into the next Major Ice Age, that without Neolithic Global

Warming would have happened about 5,000 years ago, has been delayed.......................................19Figure 2-4. Neolithic Global Warming, Modern Global Warming, Future Global Warming and the

plunge into the next Major Ice Age. ..................................................................................................20Figure 2-5. North Atlantic Ocean currents as depicted in

http://www.fiu.edu/~srimal/Currents_files/v3_document.htm..........................................................21

Figure 2-6. The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt (GOCB). This diagram is taken from

(http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/small/04.18.jpg) (Houghton, 2001). Surface currentsflow from the east and then from the south; then they sink in the Arctic region to form deep oceancurrents back toward the south and the east. .....................................................................................22

Figure 2-7. Future Global Warming may trigger the next major ice sooner than it would otherwise occur,

due to switching off Atlantic Ocean currents. The dark curve on the right is an estimate of howrapidly temperatures might fall..........................................................................................................23

Figure 2-8. Hurricane power dissipated (PDI) versus sea surface temperature (SST) in the North AtlanticOcean (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181#more-181)....................................................24

Figure 2-9. Controlled entry into the next Major Ice Age, represented by the stretched out curve, by

slowing the rate of burning fossil fuels, storing carbon dioxide to be released later more slowly andreducing population. ..........................................................................................................................25

Figure 2-10. Earth temperature data for the last 1000 years. (Data from IPCC) The slow drop until about150 years ago was due to falling solar insolation. .............................................................................26

Figure 2-11. Earth average temperature difference (relative to 1990) for the last 10,000, assuming it is

one-half of the Antarctica temperature difference.............................................................................26Figure 2-12. Earth temperature data (left axis) as reported by IPCC and human population data (right

axis) for the last 200 years. ................................................................................................................27

Figure 2-13. Top: Prediction of Future Global Warming by projecting the World temperature/populationratio. Bottom: Future Global Warming predicted by climate models. ..............................................28

Figure 2-14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculations for Earth temperatures since 1860compared to measurements. Note that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of the recent rapidrise (Modern Global Warming), rather than natural forcing.

(http://www.ipcc.ch/pug/un/syreng/spm.pdf)....................................................................................29Figure 2-15. Different models predictions of Antarctica temperature for the next two Major Ice Ages of

about 115,000 years duration. (Roper, 2004)....................................................................................30Figure 3-1. United States extraction rate of crude oil, a fit using the Verhulst function and the fits

projection into the future. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov ....................................................32

Figure 3-2. United States crude oil consumption rate, extraction rate, imports and the Alaskancomponent of extraction. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov . ...................................................33


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Figure 3-3. Top: World crude oil discoveries rate and a Verhulst-function fit to the data. Bottom: Crudeoil discoveries per capita. Data are from http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html . ...................34

Figure 3-4. World crude oil extraction rate, two fits using the Verhulst function and projection of the fitsinto the future. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov . ....................................................................36

Figure 3-5. World crude oil extraction per capita using the Verhulst fit to the data with 3 x 1012 barrels

eventual extraction. ............................................................................................................................37Figure 3-6. World crude oil prices from 1947 to 2004. Taken from

http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif ............................................................................38Figure 3-7. World crude oil prices and an exponential fit to the data since January 2002. Data are from

http://www.eia.doe.gov .....................................................................................................................39Figure 3-8. Top: Standard and Poors stock prices (http://www.econ.yale.edu/%7Eshiller/data.htm and

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC) and World crude oil prices. Bottom: Ratio of

S&P/Oil-Price. ...................................................................................................................................41Figure 3-9. Top: Linear and hyperbolic tangent fits to the S&P-Price/Oil-Price ratio. Bottom: projection

of S&P stock prices according to the fits to the S&P-Price/Oil-Price ratio assuming oil pricecontinues to rise according to the fit to recent oil prices. ..................................................................42

Figure 3-10. Top: Exponential and hyperbolic-tangent fits to World crude oil price. Bottom: Hyperbolictangent crude-oil price and a possible depressive reaction of the S&P price without a completecollapse. .............................................................................................................................................44

Figure 3-11. Top: Crude oil extraction data for Saudi Arabia and a Verhulst function fit to the data.Bottom: Extrapolation of the fit into the future. Data are taken from Simmons (Simmons, 2005). .45

Figure 3-12. Crude oil extraction data for Saudi Arabia and a Verhulst- function fit to the data, with the

total amount to be extracted equal to 200x109 barrels, and extrapolation of the fit into the future. .46Figure 3-13. United States (top graph) and World (bottom) natural-gas extraction rates, fits to them

using a Verhulst function and projection of the fits into the future. Data are fromhttp://www.eia.doe.gov .....................................................................................................................48

Figure 3-14. World natural-gas discoveries rate and extraction rate in 1012 (trillion) cubic feet per year.

Taken from Darley, p. 92. (Darley, 2004) .........................................................................................48Figure 3-15. World natural-gas prices and an exponential fit to the data since January 1999. Data are

from http://www.eia.doe.gov . ...........................................................................................................49Figure 3-16. Coal extraction rate in the United States. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov ...............51Figure 3-17. World and United States coal extraction rate and Verhulst fits to the data. The solid curve is

for 1.5x10^12 short tons total extraction for the World and the dashed curve is for 3.0x10^12 shorttons total extraction for the World. ....................................................................................................51

Figure 3-18. Uranium extraction rate for the World and a Verhulst function fit to the data.http://www.globeuranium.com.au/index.php?id=22&PHPSESSID=bb901a92b43b2edca8f0667673e64b39................................................................................................................................................52

Figure 3-19. Uranium extraction rate for the World and Verhulst function fits to the data and theirextrapolations into the future. The solid curve is for the total amount to be extracted equal to

15,000x103 tonnes and the dashed curve is for a fit to non-Cold-War data with the total amount tobe extracted equal to 15,000x103 tonnes. ..........................................................................................53

Figure 3-20. Fit to uranium extraction data using only 7500x103 tonnes total eventual extraction. .........54

Figure 3-21. Spot prices per pound for U3O8. http://www.uxc.com/review/uxc_g_hist-price.html . Notethe huge Cold War prices. .................................................................................................................55

Figure 3-22. Western World uranium supply versus demand. (http://www.uxc.com/cover-stories/uxw_18-34-cover.html)..........................................................................................................56


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Figure 3-23. Comparison of World extraction rates for coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium, allnormalized to 1 at year 2000. ............................................................................................................57

Figure 3-24. United States consumption of energy by resource.(http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/2/114144/2387) .............................................................58

Figure 3-25. Heat energy per time released by humans on the Earths surface for three different

temperature increases using the Stefan-Boltzmann law, a hyperbolic-tangent time variation inenergy release and a set of reasonable parameters. dT = the final change in the Earths temperature

in Celsius degrees. .............................................................................................................................60Figure 3-26. The 2005 Toyota Prius. Taken from

http://photos.groups.yahoo.com/group/prius_technical_stuff . .........................................................62Figure 3-27. The Power Split Device of the Toyota Prius. The ring gear is the largest outer gear, the sun

gear is the smallest inner gear and the planetary carrier is in the middle. Taken from

http://photos.groups.yahoo.com/group/prius_technical_stuff/lst . ....................................................63Figure 3-28. The arrangement of the Power Split Device (planetary gear set), the engine, the large

motor/generator (Motor) and the small generator/motor (Generator) in the Toyota Prius. Takenfrom http://www.toyota.co.jp/en/tech/environment/ths2/hybrid.html . .............................................64

Figure 3-29. The Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive electronic-control networking of the five computerswith other components. Taken from Toyota Motor Company. .........................................................65Figure 3-30. The Hymotion plug- in module for the 2004-6 Toyota Prius. ...............................................66

Figure 3-31. State of charge of the battery of a plug-in hybrid vehicle. (http://www.udel.edu/V2G/V2G-Cal-2001.pdf) .....................................................................................................................................67

Figure 3-32. World biodiesel production rate and a mathematical fit to it. (barrel = 42 US gallons). Data

are from (Pahl, 2005). ........................................................................................................................69Figure 3-33. Projection of World biodiesel production rate into the future compared to the projection of

World crude oil extraction rate. .........................................................................................................70Figure 3-34. The top light-gray bars are World fuel ethanol production rate. Taken from

http://www.distill.com/berg . .............................................................................................................71

Figure 3-35. Number of E85 filling stations in 35 states of the United States in December 2005. Thestates not listed have zero stations. Data are from http://www.e85fuel.com/database/search.php . .72

Figure 3-36. Comparison of the energy input and output for corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel and thegreenhouse-gas emissions of corn ethanol, gasoline, soybean biodiesel and diesel. ........................73

Figure 3-37. Comparison of vehicle emissions for renewable versus nonrenewable sources of energy and

different types of vehicles..................................................................................................................74Figure 3-38. A linear fit to the World energy consumption data to allow projection into the future. Data

are from http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tablee1.xls . ..............................................76Figure 3-39. World energy consumption per capita as projected using the projected energy consumption

and projected population....................................................................................................................77

Figure 3-40. A 25% rate of growth would make World wind power equal to World total power by about2028. Data are from http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2 . ..................................................................78

Figure 3-41. A 31% rate of growth would make World photovoltaic power equal to World total powerby about 2036. Data are from http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2 . ...................................................79

Figure 3-42. Comparison of the projected total World power and a possible increase in solar power by

humans. To convert the power to BTU/year multiply by 29,900. .....................................................81Figure 3-43. Hot Rock geothermal energy system. Taken from http://hotrock.anu.edu.au . ....................83

Figure 3-44. Lovins calculations (Lovins, 2005) (Figure 8) showing how the United States ratio of useof oil (barrels) to real GDP ($) (top curve on left and bottom curve on right) has declined since


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1977 and how gallons per mile for light vehicles has changed with time. The dashed lines indicatehow the two ratios could improve by using state-of-the art technology............................................84

Figure 4-1. Antarctica temperature data (right scale) for 425,000 ybp to the present (present=0 onhorizontal scale), which shows four Major Ice Ages of about 115,000-years duration. The dashed

curve is the precisely calculated solar energy per area that strikes the Earths upper atmosphere

(insolation) (left scale) at the North Pole in the summer. The solid curve is a model fit to thetemperature data for four previous Major Ice Ages (Roper, 2004), which is extrapolated into the

next two Major Ice Ages up to 250,000 yap. (http://www.roperld.com/science/tempsolinsatc.pdf )...........................................................................................................................................................86

Figure 4-2. Some major events forHomo sapiens during the last Major Ice Age. ...................................88Figure 4-3. Models predictions for Antarctica temperatures for the next two Major Ice Ages of about

115,000 years duration.......................................................................................................................89

Figure 4-4. Fits to Antarctica temperature data for the last four Major Ice Ages (Petit, 1999) by amathematical function involving the North-Pole summer insolation and two Earth states transitions

in the time vicinity of the five Major Interglacials (Roper, 2004). The fit is then projected into thefuture for the next two Major Ice Ages. The bottom graph shows the two Earth states transitions

and their sum (solid curve). ...............................................................................................................90Figure 4-5. An example of fitting (blue curve) the last Major Interglacial using three Earth-statestransitions and the current Major Interglacial using four Earth-states transitions. The dashed red

curve is the contribution of the North-Pole summer insolation to the temperature. The dashed blackcurve is the calculated North-Pole summer insolation. The far-right transition curve in the bottomgraph is Neolithic Global Warming which began with the onset of agriculture about 8,000 ybp. The

other curves are the transitions components in the fit. .....................................................................92Figure 4-6. Antarctica temperatures for two different Antarctica ice cores: Older data (Vostok location)

(Petit, 1999) back to 425,000 ybp and recent data (Dome C location, labeled EDC) (EPICA, 2004)extend Antarctica temperatures back to 740,000 ybp. The lower graph shows the calculated North-Pole summer insolation (Berger, 1991). These graphs start at 650,000 ybp; the scale is right-to-left

in time according to the custom of ice-core measurements...............................................................93Figure 4-7. North-Pole summer insolation (Berger, 1991) for 450,000 ybp to 300,000 years from now.

The short bars at the top approximately represent the time intervals of Major Interglacials accordingto the EPICA data. The two red bars are the -415,000 and the current Major Interglacials. ............94

Figure 4-8. Antarctica temperatures relative to 1990 for the current and last four Major Interglacials,

which are shifted in time to make their peaks at about the same point in the graph. ........................95Figure 4-9. Antarctica temperatures for the last five million years.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png) ............................................96Figure 5-1. World population change (top graph) and World population (bottom graph) and their

projection into the future by fitting the data from 1950 to 2005 with an inverse-tangent function. .98

Figure 6-1. Human refugia in Europe during the coldest time, ~18,000 ybp, of the last Major Ice Age.(http://www.dnaheritage.com/masterclass2.asp) .............................................................................103

Figure 7-1. Income inequality measure (Gini Coefficient: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient)for the United States from 1947 to 2001 (top graph) and the World (bottom two graphs). (G = 0 forfull equality = equal income to all people, G = 1 for full inequality = all income to one person) See

http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/inequality.htm. Data are from the United States CensusBureau. .............................................................................................................................................107


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Chapter 1. Triple Threats for the Human Future

Introduction

Homo sapiens face some formidable troubles within the next few years, the next few decades, the nextfew centuries and the next few millennia. Close cooperation between peoples of all nations of the Earthwill be necessary to deal adequately with those troubles. Without close cooperation our species may not

survive those troubles. Certainly without close cooperation many humans will die unnecessarily. Humanpopulation of the World will reduce either by intentional birth control or by much more undesirablemeans.

This chapter will outline what I call the Triple Threats for the Human Future on three time scales.

Other chapters will discuss the Triple Threats in greater detail.

1. The next few years to decades: Crude oil and natural-gas availability for the World will start

declining soon, with probable dire consequences for social organization. This is Threat 1.2. The next few decades to centuries: Anthropogenic Global Warming (see Glossary) will cause

drastic changes in climates and may even cause the third Threat to happen sooner than centuries ormillennia. This is Threat 2.3. The next few centuries to millennia : The next Major Ice Age (see Glossary) will probably begin

within the next 1000 years, one of the many Major Ice Ages that have occurred about every 115,000years for, at least, the last million years. About 10,000 years from now, the Earths temperature will be

several Celsius degrees colder than at present. This is Threat 3.

Threat 1: The End of the Oil Age

It has been known for several decades that World crude oil extraction would peak shortly after the year

2000. Chapter 3 discusses in detail the situation for United States and World crude oil extraction andother nonrenewable sources of energy, and how they must be quickly replaced by renewable sources ofenergy.

The most versatile of the nonrenewable sources of energy is petroleum, especially as a fuel for

transportation. The United States peaked in crude oil extraction at about 1970 and the World is peakingabout now (2006). It will be excruciatingly difficult for human societies to adjust to less petroleum percapita than it has been accustomed for the last century, which decline has already begun. (See Figure

3-5.)


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Threat 2: Anthropogenic Global Warming

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a report in 2001 (Houghton, 2001) withthe conclusion that Anthropogenic Global Warming (see Glossary) is real. The consequences will be

dire if it is not stopped. Chapter 2 discusses Neolithic Global Warming, Modern Global Warming andFuture Global Warming (see Glossary) and some of their consequences.

Threat 3: The Next Major Ice Age

Were it not for Neolithic Global Warming, the Earth probably would be headed already into the nextMajor Ice Age, because solar energy striking the Earth (insolation) has been declining for almost 10,000

years. Neolithic Global Warming and Modern Global Warming have delayed the entry into the nextMajor Ice Age. However, the next Major Ice Age is inevitable because of the huge amounts of energychanges involved, including large Atlantic Ocean currents (Colling, 2002). After most of the fossil fuels

are burned within the next few hundred years the next Major Ice Age will begin. In fact, it may beginmuch sooner if Future Global Warming turns off some or all of the North Atlantic Ocean currents

(Houghton, 2001). Chapter 4 discusses these issues.

Troubles Ahead

Rich highly-developed nations will probably not give up their dependency on using more than their

share of the Worlds resources. Rich nations may continue their long-standing practice of killing peoplein poor nations to capture their resources in order to maintain the high standard of living in the richnations. (Klare, 2001)

Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and weapons of indiscriminate destruction may

be used again as they have been used in the past if the rich nations deem their use necessary to guaranteethose nations access to the remaining resources of the World.

Suburban life will become difficult because of the difficulty and expense of traveling large distances forperceived and real necessities. City life will become difficult because of the energy required to bring in

real and perceived necessities. Mostly self sufficient communities with surrounding farm lands andexpertise at growing food and other survival techniques are the best bet as survival locations (forexample: Blacksburg VA and other small university and college communities). See The End of

Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream DVD.

Starvation will be widespread. Mass migrations from poorer nations to richer nations will probablyoccur, with many people dying along the way and in conflicts after reaching their destination. In fact,that is already occurring.

Much knowledge may be lost about how to survive in a less energy-intensive World and about how to

create better living conditions. (Benford, 2000)


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How Can Humans get from Now to 1000 Years from Now?

The following is a brief outline of how humans can make life easier in the future. More details will begiven in later chapters.

Eliminate nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction by all countries, including theUnited States. This implies a high degree of World cooperation, not go-it-alone by each nation.(Klare, 2001) When developing nations are commanded by developed nations that they are notallowed to construct nuclear weapons, they must in turn demand that the developed nations

destroy their nuclear weapons.

Emphasize pre-conception birth control and education of women to try to stabilize andpeacefully bring down World population.

Safely store knowledge for future use, including survival knowledge tribal groups accumulatedbefore industrialization. (Benford, 2000 (See Chapter 6.)

Use energy and materials much more efficiently.

Recycle materials to a high degree. Change from nonrenewable to renewable energy sources. (See Chapter 3.) Use the remaining fossil fuels and uranium to develop infrastructure needed to use renewable

energy sources.

Depend more on local sources of energy, food and materials. Support farmers markets that selllocally-grown food.

Reduce waste and use organic waste to create soil and biofuels. Live closer together in self-sufficient communities. Change from mostly individual/family transportation to mostly shared transportation (for

example, railroads and shared personal vehicles instead of interstates/motorways). (See

http://www.carsharing.net and http://www.cooperativeauto.net .)

Store carbon dioxide, and perhaps methane, now and in the future in a way so that humans canrecover it later to release it into the atmosphere to ameliorate the plunge into the next Major IceAge. (Roper, 2004)

Are humans informed and intelligent enough to realize these huge problems and to do these thingsquickly enough? (Kuntsler, 2005) That is, Will civilization arrive?


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Chapter 2. Anthropogenic Global Warming: It Started Long Ago

Introduction

In recent years many books, articles and news programs have discussed the concept that humanactivities have caused Global Warming within the last two hundred years (Modern Global Warming).The latest definitive scientific study by several thousand scientists concerning Anthropogenic Global

Warming was reported in 2001 (Houghton, 2001), with the conclusion that Anthropogenic GlobalWarming is real.

Without human interference the Earths atmospheric temperature is largely determined by insolation(solar energy per time per area that strikes the upper atmosphere) magnitude, which can be calculated

very accurately, and the turning on and off of different states of energy storage in the Earth and itsatmosphere other than as atmospheric heat (measured by temperature). For example, North AtlanticOcean currents can store and transport energy, especially in the times of Major Interglacials (see

Glossary). The turning on and off of those ocean currents can cause changes in the climate. This hasbeen the pattern for at least the last one million years. See Chapter 4. ( Colling, 2002)

Figure 2-1 shows North-Pole summer insolation (Berger, 1991)and Vostok Antarctica temperatureversus time as determined by deuterium concentration in ice cores (Petit, 1999). North-Pole summer

insolation is an important factor because accumulation of ice on the land in the Arctic region is crucial tothe existence of Major Ice Ages and summer is when the ice can melt. (There appear to be time-scale

problems between the insolation calculation and temperature measurements for the earlier times. Timesare more difficult to determine for deeper ice cores; that is, for earlier times.) Vostok Antarcticatemperature data are used because they are the best data available and they show the same major

features as do data from Greenland ice cores near the Arctic. They also extend farther back in time than

do the Greenland ice cores; that is, the cores are deeper.

Figure 2-1. Vostok Antarctica atmospheric temperature (right axis) from -425,000 years to now as determined from

deuterium concentrations in ice cores (Petit, 1999) and North-Pole summer insolation (left axis) from -425,000 to

+250,000 years calculated using the Berger code (Berger, 1991).


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About 11,000 years ago North-Pole summer insolation began falling and it is calculated to gradually fallfor another 500 years into the future. Figure 2-2 shows the North-Pole summer insolation for the last

15,000 years and 10,000 years into the future.

Figure 2-2. North-Pole summer insolation from -15,000 years to 10,000 years into the future.

Neolithic Global Warming

A recent study by Professor Emeritus William F. Ruddiman of University of Virginia

(Ruddiman, 2005) makes a convincing case that Anthropogenic Global Warming began about 8,000years ago.

Ruddiman presented strong evidence that carbon dioxide and methane in the upper atmosphere shouldfollow insolation, but about 8,000 years ago, instead of falling with falling insolation, carbon dioxidestarted rising because humans began to farm extensively and about 5,000 years ago, instead of falling

with falling insolation, methane started rising because humans began to flood land for rice farming. Theincreases of these two potent greenhouse gases in the upper atmosphere caused the Earths temperature

to fall only slightly instead of the more rapid fall that would have occurred had extensive agriculture notbegun.

Figure 2-3 taken from Ruddimans Scientific American article, illustrates what I call the NeolithicGlobal Warming effect. Ruddiman surmised that the Earth would have already entered into the next

115,000-year Major Ice Age had not Neolithic Global Warming occurred. The sharp peak at the right isan estimate of Future Global Warming due to the massive burning of fossil fuels accompanied by a largeincrease in human population, which mutually affect each other.


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Figure 2-3. Neolithic Global Warming. This is taken from Ruddimans Scientific American article. It illustrates the

thesis that the entry into the next Major Ice Age, that without Neolithic Global Warming would have happened about

5,000 years ago, has been delayed

Figure 2-4 shows the time interval for Anthropogenic Global Warming in order to show the three

components: Neolithic Global Warming, Modern Global Warming over the last two centuries andFuture Global Warming. Note the estimated rapid plunge into the next Major Ice Age after the burningof nonrenewable fuels peaks a few hundred years from now.


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Figure 2-4. Neolithic Global Warming, Modern Global Warming, Future Global Warming and the plunge into the

next Major Ice Age.

There are many adverse effects of Future Global Warming, among which are:

Rapid changes in temperature cause agriculture possibilities to switch from one area of theWorld to another. Thus, many people will die due to lack of food where they live and as they try

to migrate to areas where food might be available. Rapid increases in temperature cause more severe weather to occur, such as hurricanes and other

strong storms. Thus, many people will die (have already died!). See Figure 2-8 below.

Rapid increases in temperature cause the glacial ice at the North and South Poles to melt andocean waters to expand, raising sea levels; which will flood many major cities of the World.

Rapid increases in temperature may cause North Atlantic Ocean currents to turn off, plunging theEarth into the next Major Ice Age.

North Atlantic Ocean Currents

Perhaps the most important effect of Future Global Warming is that the fast rise in temperature maytrigger the next Major Ice Age sooner than it would otherwise occur, due to switching off North AtlanticOcean currents (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation) (Houghton, 2001). Figure 2-5

and Figure 2-6 contain two different representations of the Atlantic Ocean currents.

In Figure 2-5 note that the Brazilian coastline deflects most of the South Equatorial Current into thenorthern hemisphere, which results in a large transfer of heat from the southern hemisphere into the farnorthern hemisphere. There are several different branching North Atlantic Ocean currents. The Isthmus


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of Panama that connects Central America and South America keeps the Atlantic Ocean currents fromgoing into the Pacific Ocean. It closed about 4 million years ago due to continental drift, enabling the

periodic Major Ice Ages of about 115,000 years duration.

Figure 2-5. North Atlantic Ocean currents as depicted in

http://www.fiu.edu/~srimal/Currents_files/v3_document.htm.

In Figure 2-6 note the Great Ocean Conveyor Belts (GOCB) release of energy into the atmosphere inthe Antarctica area, as well as the North Atlantic (Gulf Stream), and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

absorption of energy from solar insolation and the atmosphere all over the Earth to drive the GOCB.


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Figure 2-6. The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt (GOCB). This diagram is taken from

(http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/small/04.18.jpg ) (Houghton, 2001). Surface currents flow from the east

and then from the south; then they sink in the Arctic region to form deep ocean currents back toward the south and

the east.

Figure 2-7 illustrates what might happen if the rapid rise in Future Global Warming turns off some or all

of the North Atlantic Ocean currents. The black curve on the right is an estimate of how rapidlytemperatures might fall. (See the movie The Day After Tomorrow, whose time scale is probably muchtoo short.) The reason that a sooner plunge into the next Major Ice Age might occur is that the North

Atlantic Ocean currents are what keep ice from forming in the Arctic region, which ice creation causespositive feedback to start the ice age. Some factors to consider are:

Earth temperature will probably drop about as fast as it has risen over the last few hundred

years, or faster.

Will humans desperately try to increase burning of fossil fuels to try to ameliorate the fasttemperature drop, instead of using them to develop infrastructure needed for long-term human

survival?


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Figure 2-7. Future Global Warming may trigger the next major ice sooner than it would otherwise occur, due to

switching off Atlantic Ocean currents. The dark curve on the right is an estimate of how rapidly temperatures might

fall.

The following is a short explanation of why Future Global Warming could turn off North Atlantic Ocean

currents (Colling, 2002):

n In the tropics warm surface water evaporates, leaving greater salt concentration in the surfacewater.

n Salty water travels north and becomes cooler by releasing energy into the atmosphere by

evaporation and radiation.n At some point the salty cool surface water becomes denser than the water underneath it, so it

sinks to lower ocean levels and then travels south as deep ocean currents to complete the circuit.n When the northern ice cap melts by Global Warming or otherwise, fresh water flows into the

North Atlantic.

n At some point the water ceases to be salty enough to sink at a specific location.n The sinking of cold salty water in the North Atlantic Ocean is what drives the North Atlantic

Ocean Currents.


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Global Warming and Hurricanes

It is well known that warm surface ocean water is a major causative factor in creating hurricanes.(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane) The increase in hurricane power dissipated (PDI) versus sea

surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean is shown in Figure 2-8. Strong correlationbetween ocean surface temperature and hurricane power is obvious.

Figure 2-8. Hurricane power dissipated (PDI) versus sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean

(http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=181#more-181)

Some hurricane experts have stated that the increase in power dissipated by Atlantic hurricanes in recent

years is due to an Atlantic hurricane cycle independent of Anthropogenic Global Warming. However,the power dissipated by hurricanes/typhoons is a World wide phenomenon, and no hurricane cycle has

been determined for the other oceans (http://zfacts.com/p/49.html). It seems clear that the World canexpect much more energetic hurricanes in the future as long as Anthropogenic Global Warmingincreases.


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Can Humans Control Future Global Warming?

Can humans control Future Global Warming to ameliorate entry into the next Major Ice Age? F igure 2-9illustrates how humans might control Global Warming somewhat by slowing the rate of burning fossil

fuels, storing the carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases produced by using fossil fuels, to be

released later more slowly and by reducing population. (See Chapter 6.) This would give more time fordeveloping the infrastructure needed for humans to survive into the next Major Ice Age. (See Chapter 4.)

Figure 2-9. Controlled entry into the next Major Ice Age, represented by the stretched out curve, by slowing the rate

of burning fossil fuels , storing carbon dioxide to be released later more slowly and reducing population.

The major question is: Can humans co-operate enough Worldwide to reduce population peacefully,reduce the rate of burning fossil fuels and store carbon dioxide in the Earth to be released at a controlled

rate later? (Roper, 2004) That is, will civilization arrive?

Figure 2-10 shows the Earths temperature data for the last 1000 years. The slight drop in temperatureuntil about 150 years ago was due to insolation decreasing. The rapid rise in temperature during the last150 years is due to burning fossil fuels (Modern Global Warming). This is expected to continue for

several hundred more years (Future Global Warming) if humans continue to burn fossil fuels (mostlycoal after petroleum runs out); unless the Atlantic Ocean current(s) are turned off by the rapid rise in

temperature.


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Figure 2-10. Earth temperature data for the last 1000 years. (Data from IPCC) The slow drop until about 150 years

ago was due to falling solar insolation.

Compare the Earth temperature rise for the last 100 years to the change in Earth average temperature,

relative to 1990, over the entire current Major Interglacial of 10,000 years duration in Figure 2-11

Figure 2-11. Earth average temperature difference (relative to 1990) for the last 10,000, assuming it is one-half of the

Antarctica temperature difference.

It is seen that only rarely were the temperature differences relative to 1990 as large as the recenttemperature rise (about 0.6 Celsius degrees). Over the next century the Earth average temperature rise

will be much larger than any rise in the last 10,000 years.

Figure 2-12 shows Earth temperature data and human population data for the last 200 years. Note the

close relationship between the two sets of data. One way to reduce the rise in temperature with time is toreduce the rise in population by pre-conception birth control and education of women. (See Chapter 6.)


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Figure 2-12. Earth temperature data (left axis) as reported by IPCC and human population data (right axis) for the

last 200 years.

One can calculate the ratio of temperature to population for the last 25 years and fit a parabola to it topredict the temperature for the next 50 years by using the projected population (Roper, 2006), as shown

in the top graph of Figure 2-13. It is seen that, if the population grows as projected, the temperature willrise by about 0.5 Celsius degrees in 50 years. Compare this to the drop in temperature of about 0.2Celsius degrees in the last Little Ice Age (c1350-c1850) as shown in Figure 2-10. Such a temperature

rise by itself will cause drastic changes in the climate, but the danger of such a temperature rise turning

off some or all of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt (GOCB) is perhaps greater ( Houghton, 2001).Turning off the GOCB will cause temperatures to drop by several degrees C, perhaps ushering in the100,000-year cold interval of the next Major Ice Age sooner than it would otherwise occur.


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-3 -> -1 -1 -> 0 0 -> 1 1 -> 2 2 -> 3 3 -> 4 4 -> 5 5 -> 6 6 -> 7 7 -> 8

Figure 2-13. Top: Prediction of Future Global Warming by projecting the World temperature/population ratio.

Bottom: Future Global Warming predicted by climate models.

Of course, Global Warming is not only a function of increasing population; there are other factors. Infact, climate models predict that the average temperature increase by 2050 will be about 1 to 2 Celsius

degrees depending on geographic location, as shown in the bottom graph of Figure 2-13.(http://atlas.gc.ca/site/english/maps/climatechange/scenarios/globalannualtemp2050) Thus, Earths

temperature will probably rise faster per population than it has in the past, due to increased insertion ofgreenhouse gases into the upper atmosphere. For a discussion of the effects of greenhouse gases onglobal warming see http://www.roperld.com/science/CO2_Temp.pdf.

Figure 2-14 shows the calculations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001 for Earthtemperatures since 1860 and compares them to the measured temperatures. This makes a convincing

case that the recent rise in temperature (Modern Global Warming) is due to human activities.


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Figure 2-14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calculations for Earth temperatures since 1860 compared to

measurements. Note that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of the recent rapid rise (Modern Global Warming),

rather than natural forcing. (http://www.ipcc.ch/pug/un/syreng/spm.pdf)

The oceans currently contain unbalanced heat energy relative to the atmosphere, which will causeatmospheric temperatures to rise for another century even if humans quit putting greenhouse gases into

the atmosphere now. (http://www.nasa.gov/vision/Earth/environment/Earth_energy.html ;http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=148 )


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The Next Major Ice Age

The next Major Ice Age will occur no matter whether humans quickly use all the fossil fuels or not.Figure 2-15 shows several models predictions for the next two Major Ice Ages. (Roper, 2004) Homo

sapiens will undoubtedly evolve greatly over the next Major Ice Age of about 115,000 years duration,due to the extreme stresses of cold climate, as theydid during the last Major Ice Age.(See Chapter 4.)(Kurzweil, 2005) Earth average temperature change is about one- half Antarctica temperature change.

(Houghton, 2004)

Figure 2-15. Different models predictions of Antarctica temperature for the next two Major Ice Ages of about

115,000 years duration. (Roper, 2004)


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Chapter 3. A World Energy Plan Now and for the Future

Introduction

It has become obvious to many citizens of the World that there is something wrong with the Worldenergy-supply situation. The prices of energy from almost all nonrenewable sources rose dramaticallywithin the last decades of the twentieth century. And energy crisis after energy crisis have occurred

since 1970 when crude oil extraction peaked in the United States.

United States President Jimmy Carter during his administration of 1977-1981 recognized that there was a

severe problem and instituted a plan to conserve energy and develop renewable energy sources.(http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/carter/filmmore/ps_energy.html)

Then Ronald Reagan became President of the United States for eight years and cancelled the entire Carterprogram and renewed the emphasis on using mostly nonrenewable energy sources; which will redound to

his great discredit into the far distant future.(http://www.4president.org/speeches/reagan1980convention.htm)

Since then no United States president has developed a viable energy plan for the future. The currentPresident G. W. Bush (2006) is even worse than Reagan was in understanding the problems with the

energy supply now and in the future.

The economy of the World is highly dependent on using petroleum distillates (gasoline, diesel andkerosene) to move its people and goods across the huge expanse of the World and on petroleum toproduce the products, including food, that are transported. This chapter will show that this dependence

cannot continue much longer and, indeed, should not continue, since petroleum is needed to develop the

infrastructure for using renewable energy sources that will be needed to assure human survival into thedistant future, including the next Major Ice Age.

Also there will need to be a smaller population of humans on the Earth, which perhaps could be

achieved by pre-conception birth control and education of women. If it is not achieved intentionally itwill occur very unpleasantly.

This chapter will discuss nonrenewable energy sources (crude oil, natural gas, coal and uranium),concluding that oil and gas will have been fully extracted within the next century and that coal and

uranium will have run their course within about 200 years. It will show that even a miraculous energysource will not allow unlimited growth of energy use, because of the limited capability of the Earth to

radiate the energy released. A Multi-Source Distributed Energy System (MSDES) will be proposedutilizing many renewable sources of energy. The importance of hybrid vehicles, especially biofueledplug-in hybrid vehicles will be discussed. It will be shown that the recent rapid growth in biodiesel

production, wind power and photovoltaic power lend some hope that the growth rate can be increased,with undivided governmental and business attention, in time to replace crude oil and natural gas as

energy sources.


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Nonrenewable Energy Sources

Crude Oil Extraction in the United States

The rate of crude oil extraction (extraction, not production!) in the United States is shown inFigure 3-1. (Heinberg, 2003) It peaked about 1970, got a slight boost from Alaska extraction in the

1980s, but has declined steadily for the last twenty years and will continue to do so with possible short-lived small peaks. The Verhulst function fit (Roper, 1976) to the data gives a reserves value 1.5 timesthe 2003 proven reserves, which probably is about right for predicting the future.

Figure 3-1. United States extraction rate of crude oil, a fit using the Verhulst function and the fits projection into the

future. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov .

Note that the extraction curve is not symmetrical; it is skewed toward future times. This is to be expected

as Herculean efforts will be made to extract crude oil in the future.

Figure 3-2 shows the crude-oil extraction rate along with the Alaskan extraction rate (which is includedin the total rate), the consumption rate and the imports rate for the United States. Note that Alaskanextraction peaked only ten years after it started and was down to about half its peak rate in 2005. The

proposed (2006) ANWAR Alaskan extraction would be an even smaller blip, with total eventual


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extraction equal to only about one years consumption for the United States (~1010 barrels=10 billionbarrels). (http://www.inforain.org/Northslope/anwr_3.htm)

Figure 3-2. United States crude oil consumption rate, extraction rate, imports and the Alaskan component of

extraction. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov .

Crude oil Extraction for the World

Figure 3-3 shows crude oil discoveries rate and the discoveries rate per capita for the World. [Populationextrapolation into the future is taken from (Roper, 2006).] Note the peak in discoveries at about 1965

and the rapid fall since about 1975. The Verhulst function fit (Roper, 1976) to the discoveries data givesthe total amount of crude oil to be extracted as slightly less than 2 x 1012 (2 trillion) barrels. Obviously,

World crude oil discoveries have been meager and declining for the last thirty years.


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Figure 3-3. Top: World crude oil discoveries rate and a Verhulst-function fit to the data. Bottom: Crude oildiscoveries per capita. Data are from http://www.durangobill.com/Rollover.html .


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A recent (2006) discovery of an oil field 28,175 feet below the water surface of the Gulf of Mexico,estimated to contain 3 to 15 billion barrels of oil, falls neatly on the declining tail of the discoveries curve

in the top part of Figure 3-3. Just to overcome gravity to bring the oil to the surface of the Gulf cost about20% of the energy content of the oil. (For a barrel of crude oil

(http://www.oilegypt.com/Webpro1/Oil/approxEnergyContent.asp):

( )( ) ( )3 22

2

kg 3m

9 kg m9

9

9

93,000 0.159 m 9.8 8588 mEnergy to bring to surface

Energy content 6.1 10 Joules 6.1 10

1.245 100.204 or 20% .)

6.1 10

ms

s

mgh= =

= =

g

g

Of course, friction losses in the pipes and pump systems will increase this, probably double it. Then thereare the energy costs to transport the oil to the shore and to the refinery, to refine it and then transport it to

filling stations. It is not clear that any net energy will finally emerge from that Gulf of Mexico discovery.

The same formula can be used to calculate the maximum depth from which oil can be pumped such thatthe energy required to overcome gravity is just equal to the energy content of the oil:

( ) ( )

2

2

23 2

kg m99

kg m53 3 m

s

6.1 106.1 10 Joules41200 meters 135000 ft 25.6 miles.

1.48 1095 10 0.159 m 9.8

s

kg

sm

Eh

mg

= = = = = =

g

g

g

The actual energy required to bring the oil to the surface is probably at least twice the amount needed to

overcome gravity, which reduces the maximum depth to about 12 miles. The top of the new Gulf ofMexico field is 5.3 miles.

Oil discovered on the declining tail of the discovery curve steadily yields less energy per barrel as timeprogresses. At some point the energy used to get it is equal to the energy gained; then further oil

extraction for energy will cease. Oil probably still will be pumped for the hydrocarbon chemicals thathumans desire to use.

Extraction rates for crude oil are typically about forty years behind discoveries rates. So, the Worldcrude-oil extraction rate is expected to peak at about 2005.


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Figure 3-4 shows the World crude oil extraction rate and two mathematical fits to the data. The twoVerhulst function fits (Roper, 1976) were obtained by fixing the total amount of World crude oil to be

extracted at 2 x 1012 (2 trillion) barrels, an amount consistent with the fit to World crude oil discoveriesdiscussed above and shown in Figure 3-3 and at 3 x 1012 barrels, 50% more than the amount that fits the

discoveries rate data.

Figure 3-4. World crude oil extraction rate , two fits using the Verhulst function and projection of the fits into the

future. Data are from http://www.eia.doe.gov .

The peak has been predicted by many geologists to be between 2000 and 2010. (Deffeyes, 2005)

Whether the peak of crude oil extraction has already occurred or will occur in the near future, themessage is the same: The World, led by the United States, must use the remaining crude oil mostly to

develop the infrastructure needed for the use of renewable energy sources beginning now and into thefuture.

Another way to look at the dire straits the World is in with regard to crude oil extraction is to study theWorld crude oil extraction rate per capita, as shown in Figure 3-5. Since 1979 the crude oil extraction

rate per capita for the World has been falling most of the time, and the prediction is that it will continueto fall as the extraction rate falls and the population rises.


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Figure 3-5. World crude oil extraction per capita using the Verhulst fit to the data with 3 x 1012

barrels eventual

extraction.

By the year 2100 there will be less than one-fourth as much crude oil per capita as there was in 2005.The smooth curve after 2005 is calculated using the fits of Figure 3-4 and a fit to the World population

extrapolated to 2100 (Roper, 2006).

Obviously, one way to keep the fall in crude oil per capita from being so drastic would be to have World-

wide adoption of pre-conception birth control and education of women to stabilize and then eventuallyreduce human population.

World Crude Oil Prices

Yet another way to observe the peak of crude oil extraction for the United States in about 1975 and thepeak for the World shortly after 2000 is to study the price of a barrel of crude oil as shown in Figure 3-6

and Figure 3-7.


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Figure 3-6. World crude oil prices from 1947 to 2004. Taken from http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/oilprice1947.gif

Crude oil prices from 1947 to 2004 in Figure 3-6 show the sharp rise in price near the United States

peak, which was accompanied by several Middle-East conflicts (Klare, 2001) and the beginning of asharp rise in price near the Worlds peak, which is shown to have continued through 2006 in Figure 3-7.


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Figure 3-7. World crude oil prices and an exponential fit to the data since January 2002. Data are fromhttp://www.eia.doe.gov.


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The daily prices for crude oil can be found at http://www.wtrg.com/daily/clfclose.gif.

A World economic slump or collapse will probably keep crude oil prices from rising this rapidly.Eventually the price of oil will approach some asymptote after only the dregs are left to be extracted

from the Earth and after humans quit burning it and recycle it as useful chemicals instead.

Stephen and Donna Leeb (The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis,

2004) have done a study that shows that the years when oil price has risen 80% or more correlate withyears when the stock market is bear and the years when oil price has risen 20% or less correlate with

years when the stock market is bull. Given the central role of energy in the economy and of oil in energyconsumption, that result is almost a logical conclusion.


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Figure 3-8 shows data for Standard and Poors (S&P) stock-market prices used in Robert J. ShillersbookIrrational Exuberance (2006) and World crude oil prices given above and the ratio of S&P prices

to oil prices.

Figure 3-8. Top: Standard and Poors stock prices (http://www.econ.yale.edu/%7Eshiller/data.htmand

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EGSPC) and World crude oil prices. Bottom: Ratio of S&P/Oil-Price.

The connection between stock prices and oil price was fairly benign until about 1997, when the ratio ofS&P price to oil price began a sharp rise as oil price declined quickly and then began to rise morequickly in 1999. Then the ratio began a downward trend as oil price generally rose. This behavior is as

predicted by Leeb mentioned above.


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The question is: What will be the ratio of S&P prices to the oil price from now on. From 2000 to 2006one can fit a linear function or the hyperbolic tangent function to the S&P-price/Oil-price ratio to yield

the fits shown in Figure 3-9. A hyperbolic tangent function often occurs in nature when an asymptoticratio occurs. It is expected that, as the oil price rises, stock prices either will collapse in a depression or

adjust to an asymptotic relationship with the oil price. The hyperbolic tangent fit represents a soft

landing for stock prices relative to increasing oil price and the linear fit represents a hard landing.

Figure 3-9. Top: Linear and hyperbolic tangent fits to the S&P-Price/Oil-Price ratio. Bottom: projection of S&P stockprices according to the fits to the S&P-Price/Oil-Price ratio assuming oil price continues to rise according to the fit to

recent oil prices.


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The fitted functions are:

S&P-price

Oil-price

S&P-price

Oil-price

2003.6737.29 32.70tanh and

5.02

6.00841 12076 .

t

t

=

= +

The bottom graph of Figure 3-9 shows the calculated projected S&P stock prices according to the fits torecent oil prices and ratio of S&P-price/Oil-price. Note the soft landing for the hyperbolic tangent fit

and the hard landing (collapse of the stock market) for the linear fit. I suppose that question is: Canhuman organizations engineer the soft landing instead of the hard landing?

It may turn out that the price of crude oil will not rise exponentially for the next several decades ashumans learn that life can go on without huge consumption of it. A fit can be made to the crude-oil price

data with a final price of about twice the current price, as shown in Figure 3-10.


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Figure 3-10. Top: Exponential and hyperbolic-tangent fits to World crude oil price. Bottom: Hyperbolic tangent

crude-oil price and a possible depressive reaction of the S&P price without a complete collapse.

Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Extraction

A discussion of the World situation for crude oil extraction is not complete without discussing thesituation for Saudi Arabia as an example of a major supplier of crude oil to the rest of the World. Figure3-11 shows the extraction data and a Verhulst function fit (Roper, 1976) to the data. In the fit the totalamount to be extracted is fixed at the sum of the amount already extracted (105x109 barrels) and the

proven reserves (263x109 barrels). (Simmons, 2005) (total of 368x109 barrels)


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Figure 3-11. Top: Crude oil extraction data for Saudi Arabia and a Verhulst function fit to the data. Bottom:

Extrapolation of the fit into the future. Data are taken from Simmons (Simmons, 2005).

Comparing Figure 3-11 for Saudi Arabia crude oil extraction rate to Figure 3-4 for World crude oilextraction, it is clear that Saudi Arabia will remain a major supplier of crude oil well into the middle of

the 21st century. However, it may be that the proven reserves for Saudi Arabia are exaggerated


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(Simmons, 2005). For example, suppose the total amount to be extracted would be 200x109 barrels; thatis, about half has already been ext racted. Figure 3-12 shows the projected crude oil extraction for Saudi

Arabia for this case.

Figure 3-12. Crude oil extraction data for Saudi Arabia and a Verhulst-function fit to the data, with the total amount

to be extracted equal to 200x109

barrels, and extrapolation of the fit into the future.

In this case, Saudi Arabia would provide only about 10% for the Worlds crude oil in 2030. (Compare toFigure 3-4.)

For analyses of crude-oil extraction data for Venezuela and Mexico seehttp://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/minerals/crudeoil.htm .

Natural-Gas Extraction

Natural gas (70 to 90% methane = CH4) is widely used to generate electric power and will be used more

for that purpose in the future because it produces much less pollution than does crude oil, coal or nuclearenergy. Since one can use natural gas for transportation, can the World just switch to natural gas for

transportation when crude oil extraction declines? (I drove tractors, cars and trucks that burned propaneand butane, small components of natural gas which are easily liquefied, when I was in high school andcollege in the1950s.) See the section below abou

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