Humboldt County Economy2007

Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary Club

November 6, 2007

Humboldt County Economy2007

By Erick Eschker

Department of EconomicsHumboldt State University

Humboldt Economic Indexwww.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm

Humboldt Economic Index Sponsors

Six Sectors and Composite

• Energy• Lumber-based manufacturing• Employment• Hospitality• Retail• Housing• Composite

Energy• Not much has changed in two years

Humbodt County Energy Consumption

(seasonally adjusted)

0100200300

S ep-

Dec

Mar

Jun

Sep

Dec

Mar

Jun S ep-in

dex

valu

es

Electricity Natural Gas

Lumber Manufacturing• Structural Decline but high variability

Lumber-based Manufacturing Index (seasonally adjusted)

50

60

70

80

90

Sep-05 Dec Mar

Jun

Sep Dec MarJu

n

Sep-07

The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Employment• Very little change in overall employment• Unemployment rate has risen recently

Unemployment Rates September '06 - September '07

(seasonally adjusted)

4.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Feb Mar AprMay Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep

State National County

Hospitality• Slight upward trend

Hospitality (seasonally adjusted)

75

85

95

Sep-07 Dec Mar Ju

nSep Dec Mar Ju

n

Sep-07

Inde

x va

lue

The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Retail• Based on our own survey (we’re always looking

for more data providers!)

Retail (seasonally adjusted)

120130140150160170180

Sep Dec Mar Jun

Sep Dec Mar Jun

Sep

Inde

x va

lue

The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.

Housing• New Real Estate Page on the Index• Significant sales drop since summer 2005• 40% drop July-Sept (record drop)• Sales now at 1997 levels

Housing

House Price to Rent Ratio• Rose very quickly starting in 2003

Composite• Decline since May• Housing and Manufacturing the main reason

Seasonally Adjusted Composite Index

100

105

110

115

Sept'05

Dec'05

Mar'06

Jun'06

Sept'06

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun'07

Sep'07

Forecast• We don’t do forecasts• Two local Leading Indicators show slowing

Forecast• This is an important time

– Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation?• Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22• Uncertainty:

– Financial Markets– Housing– Energy Prices– Consumer Spending