Hurricane Forecasting in Canada: a partnership between research and

operations J.D. Abraham Director General Weather and Environmental Monitoring Meteorological Service of Canada IWET IV May 24 2012

Creation and evolution of the CHC: 25th Anniversary September 25-28, 1985 – Hurricane Gloria affected the Maritime provinces.

Canadians had to rely largely on U.S. forecasts concerning this intense storm. When the storm's effects on Canada were much less than predicted, there was considerable confusion in the media and the general public. This eventually lead to the creation of the CHC. 1980’s CNN – Growth in cable news and live coverage August 31, 1987 – Environment Canada established hurricane centres on each coast: at the then Maritimes Weather Centre (Bedford, N.S.), and at the then Pacific Weather Centre (Vancouver, B.C.). 2000 – The Canadian Hurricane Centre was established in Dartmouth, N.S., to serve all of Canada.

Canadian Hurricane Centre Ops 1987: First hurricane forecasting specialists were identified: Jim Abraham, Peter Bowyer, Al MacAfee, Ken MacDonald, John Merrick CHC issues first bulletins on Hurricane Emily 1989: First Environment Canada meteorologist attends the WMO-NHC Hurricane Workshop 1991: First hurricane-forecasting training delivered in Canada by a U.S. National Hurricane Centre specialist (Hal Gerrish) 1994: Development and implementation of hurricane workstation software that prepares tracks and bulletins (Al MacAfee)

TC (not ET) Training

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ET: a collaborative R&D and forecaster challenge

1989: Tropical Storm Hugo hits Ontario; this storm marks the first time Doppler images of a tropical cyclone are captured over Canada: Paul Joe 1993: First CHC member attends the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-III, Mexico) 1996 McGill University: Peter Yau and John Gyakum 1998: IWTC-IV Haikou : Special session on ET 1999: IWET I: Kaufbeuren DE (Sarah Jones and Roger Smith) 1999: AEPRI 2001: COMET partnership established 2003: IWET II and Hurricane Juan Halifax NS 2004: National Lab in each Storm Prediction Centre 2005: IWET III Perth AU 2012: IWET IV Montreal QC

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. Our knowledge and understanding of extratropical transition could be enhanced through a field experiment with Intensive Observation Periods. Scientific objectives must be developed for such an experiment. The possibility of using existing resources should be considered, e.g. WWRP/WMO and Typhoon Committee in the Pacific, USWRP and the HRD field programme in the Atlantic. The participation of both forecasters and researchers is essential for the success of a field programme.

First International Workshop on Extratropical Transition Kaufbeuren, Germany, 10 - 14 May 1999

Outcome: Improved understanding, and better prediction through:

– Knowledge transfer (training and development, conceptual models, techniques)

– Technology transfer (numerical models, tools) – Data (aircraft, remote sensing, impacts)

Training: COMET Courses and Modules

Parametric Wind and Wave modeling

Max Reported Sig. Waves 17+ metres

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HURRICANE LUIS

Sept. 10-11, 1995

85 knots 10 / 06Z

85 knots 10 / 12Z

10 / 18Z

85 knots

95 knots

11 / 00Z

11 / 06Z

105 knots

Wave Field at Sept.11 - 01Z

* QEII

Numerical Weather Prediction • Coupled Modeling strategies • Ocean and atmospheric data assimilation • High resolution simulations • Vortex insertions

• Improved operational modeling suite

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Storm surge prediction and water level alert system

• The first project to be brought to fruition through AEPRI, with collaborators:

• Natacha Bernier, Janya Humble, Josko Bobanovic and Keith Thompson (Dal)

• George Parkes, Serge Desjardins, and Al MacAfee (MTs, MSC - Atlantic)

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Storm Surge Prediction System • Predicts sea level changes caused by weather systems • Based on Dal coastal ocean model • Driven by CMC regional forecast model surface

pressures and winds • Alerts forecasters of flooding risk from combination of

high tide and large surge

The January 21st 2000 Storm • Powerful storm hit

Maritimes • Significant flooding

in Charlottetown • Successful

prediction by forecast model

• Forecast

“Helene” barotropic waves

Large Atmospheric Computation on the Earth Simulator

• 40 clusters of 16 full SX-6 nodes • 8 vector processors per node Total 5120 PEs • Peak performance 40 Tflops/sec • Memory: 16 Gbytes/node Total: 10 TB • NEC IXS Xbar Interconnec

Numerical Simulation

Collaboration

ESC: Wataru Ohfuchi

RPN: Michel Desgagné

Gilbert Brunet Robert Benoit Claude Girard Pierre Pellerin Michel Valin

McGill University: Peter Yau

John Gyakum Ron McTaggart-Cowan

Yosvany Martinez

CSU: Mike Montgomery

Tropical Phase Class2 Hurricane

ET Phase

985 hPa

964 hPa

September 1998: Classified as a very active TC period

LACES: A Grand Challenge project on the Earth Simulator

Modelling the Full Lifecycle of Hurricane Earl (Sept 1998) at 1km Resolution with the Canadian MC2 Model

Observations

•Doppler Radar •Additional buoys •Aircraft flights CV580

• Michael 2000 • Karen 2001 • Isabel and Juan 2003 • Ophelia 2006

•Synthetic Aperture Radar

Hugo through King City radar 1989

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Bouys: Trapped Fetch Resonant Waves

Defense Research: AXBT/AXCTD “Michael”

Aircraft Investigations

Cross-section of wind speeds

Key findings from the flights

• Highly asymmetric wind field • Deep wind region again on right-hand side (as in Michael 2000) • Drying-out above 900 mb (1000 m) on south side • Tilted eyewall - stadium effect or ET tilt? • High degree of variability in wind profiles in different sectors of the

storm: • Near 50% wind reduction in BL on east side outside RMW • Near 20% (only) wind reduction near RMW and on south side

(downward momentum mixing more efficient; BL rolls seen in doppler may be helping?)

• This has significant implications for wind forecasting • Challenges: • Isabel (GPS) winds, icing buildup • Juan some lingering GPS issues in high wind region

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Another opportunistic SAR scan capturing wind field early in the ET process

CHC Outcomes • Very good relationship with research

community and other operational centres (facilitated by WMO TMP, National Marine Lab and a wonderful TC community)

• Trained and motivated forecasters • Credibility with Canadian media and

public • Demonstrated public response to

protect lives and property

Courtesy, Newton Pritchett

Courtesy, Newton Pritchett

Courtesy, CBC

SPECIAL STATEMENT FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND: •

WITH THE PASSAGE OF HURRICANE KATIA WELL OFFSHORE OF NEWFOUNDLAND, ITS RAPID FORWARD SPEED OF TRAVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS MAY TRIGGER RAPID TIDE-LIKE CHANGES IN HARBOUR WATER LEVELS OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. THE MOST PROBABLE PERIOD FOR THIS WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, AND AREAS MOST PRONE TO THIS RANGE FROM THE SOUTHERN AVALON TO THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORMS THAT HAVE RACED ACROSS THE GRAND BANKS (MOVING OVER 100 KM/H) IN THE PAST HAVE CAUSED WATER LEVELS IN HARBOURS TO RISE AND FALL 2 OR 3 TIMES OVER THE SPAN OF AN HOUR AND FLUCTUATE BY AS MUCH AS 2 OR 3 METRES (6 TO 10 FEET). THIS IS AN ADVISORY THAT THIS MAY - REPEAT MAY - OCCUR AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE ON THE WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PREDICTING THE ACTUAL WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR VARIOUS HARBOURS IS VERY DIFFICULT. THE HIGH (NATURAL) TIDE IN THE REGION WILL BE IN THE 7:30 TO 8:30 PM TIME FRAME TODAY, WHEN SUCH EFFECTS WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT IF THEY OCCUR.

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Research-operational partnerships: Benefit to public safety

• International partnerships facilitated by IWTC and IWET • Substantial benefit from forecaster-researcher

interaction – Knowledge transfer (understanding, conceptual models, training

and development) – Technology transfer (models, tools and techniques) – Data (aircraft, remote sensing, impacts)

• Recruitment, retention and succession planning

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Thanks Merci!

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