Hurricane Matthew: Impact on Florida and its Infrastructure Investments

JOEL DUBOW, PH.D., CISSP

FULCRUM CO,

CENTREVILLE VA, 20120

JDUBOW@FULCRUMIT.COM

Outline

• 1. Hurricane Matthew summary;

• 2. Impacts on Florida

• 3. Utilities Impact

• 4. Emergency Response Infrastructure

• 5. Technical Developments

• 6. Future Issues

• 7. Questions and awards presentation

1.Hurricane Mathew SummaryWITH A FOCUS ON FLORIDA

It was bad, but we expected worse

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Major Impacts

• 603 deaths, 47 in the United States

• Est. $15 billion in damages, $10 billion in US-costliest Hurricane since Sandy in 2012

• Extensive power outages and flooding

• Loss would have been much higher had the hurricane path been 20 miles further west

• Extensive warning and preparation helped reduce losses

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Damage proportional to Category

• Category (Florida hurricane loss index)

• Most Hurricanes strike Florida, around 50%

probability per year.

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Category Est. loss (2005 $US)

1 $250-500 million

2 $500 million-1.5 billion

3 $1.5 billion-7.9 billion

4 $ 8. billion -50 billion

5 Over $ 50 billion

What are key lessons

• We dodged a MOAB hurricane, but that isn’t the smart way to live

• A coordinated and cost-effective approach is needed to improve detection, preparation and response to hurricanes

• Short term horizons, financial profitability and political imperatives act to shift costs to consumers and impede the upgrades and hardening needed to mitigate future disasters

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2. Impacts on Florida

STATE SPECIFIC IMPACTS

Damage in Florida

• 12 deaths

• Estimated $2.75 billion in damages

• Many facilities damaged by water intrusion (i.e. Kennedy Space Center, beaches etc.)

• Petroleum ports were closed.

• Most deaths were caused by drowning (direct, vehicular and indirect accident causes)

• Disney World, NASCAR and LSU-Florida football game etc. were cancelled or closed!!

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Physical Damages

• Shorelines, beaches

• Roads

• Trees

• Coastline infrastructure

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3. Utilities Impact Issues

STATEWIDE ISSUES MOVING FORWARD

Energy Supply Damage• Hurricanes estimated annual property damage is

around $250 million, followed by Tornados ($180 million and Flooding ($115 million). All others at $50 million and below

• Petroleum is supplied through72 terminals and 44 miles of pipeline but direct losses are relatively small (a few million/year)

• Natural Gas is dominating electrical power generation. But direct losses are still in the low millions per year

• Natural disasters cause the bulk of electrical outages

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Florida Energy Infrastructure

• Total energy production supplemented by out of state energy, electrical and natural gas

• Energy consumption dominated by residential consumers since industry is relatively small

• Florida is improving transmission systems

• US ASCE (Am. Soc. Civil Engineers) grades Florida at C— for infrastructure

• Suggest smart grid, better forecasting and infrastructure hardening to raise its grade

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Energy Infrastructure issues(EPA)

• Restructured electrical industry (unbundle supply and distribution since distribution is a natural monopoly, supply isn’t)

• Joining a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) or Independent System Operator(ISO) for regional coordination and cooperation and long term planning

• Institute Statewide Energy planning and Integrated Resource/procurement planning

• Institute Statewide energy efficiency and clean energy policies

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4. Emergency Response

Infrastructure

There are a number of resources

• FEMA has offices all over Florida and elsewhere and provides significant emergency services (6 million meals, 4.5 million liters of water, 500 generators, over $100 million relief funds etc.)

• Florida Division of Emergency Management (DEM) worked with FEMA and used its HAZUS software to develop emergency standard operating procedures and assess impacts

• Department of Energy ISER coordinates restoration of power with other agencies and other regions

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Emergency Response Teams• DHS National Planning Frameworks (6/2016)

coordinates prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery

• FEMA CERT’s (Community Emergency Response Teams) Statewide

• Department of Energy ESF #12, responds with restoration efforts when activated by Secretary of Homeland Security

• Florida Division of Emergency Management coordinates State Emergency Response Teams (SERTS)

• Local Law enforcement and first responders

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Is technology making emergency

response smart or just confused?

• Agile combination sensing, data fusion and decision support sounds terrific.

• Comparing fairy tales and war stories

• Yet the technology is emerging and will pervade emergency response

• Our job is to avoid it taking down too many people with it in the process

• ASIS Utilities Security Council is working with the US Government to help ensure that their research focuses on helping the people doing the work

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Monitored: model trends

Analytic: model process

prediction success

Proactive : Real time

monitoring and control

Adaptive: change model

as situation evolves

Optimizing: Develop new

response tactics in real

time

Output

findings

from

cyber

tools

This Figure shows how unmonitored processes

is projected to evolve. Infrastructure is

connected, by networks and data transformed

into information emergency response managers

need for resource allocation

Smart Systems evolution

Ponce de Leon

Are we looking in the wrong

direction?

• James Clapper, Mike Rogers and Marcel Lettre testified at the House Intelligence Committee (Jan 5, 2107) that we need to manage risk since we can no longer erect walls that can keep hackers out.

• Should we be focusing on risk management (loss minimization) rather than damage prevention?

• The answer will impact new development strategies

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The Dieters Dilemma• The better we do emergency response the more

society will make future disasters even more damaging based on discounting future loss (wmw?)

• Delaying investment or saving money tends to increase risk

• Emergency infrastructure is based on “Hierarchical Reductionism” (i.e. stove piping)

• The sooner vulnerability is addressed the higher the impact on a disaster

• We don’t know true state of grid until we have a disaster (Hurricane Sandy and 1938 RI hurricane )

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5. Technical Developments

Social Media played a role

• Individuals served as storm trackers

• Meteorologists posted viral, and often useful images (Stu Ostro, Weather Chan. “Skull” etc.)

• FEMA and other agencies have Twitter and Facebook feeds to inform the public

• Some Twitter feeds created public alarm

• Online media and radio were a mixed bag

• Potential is just being tapped

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Integrated Data Collection and

improved Models

• FEMA Hazus Hurricane Model, now in v 4

• NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Latency decreasing to a couple of hours for use in disaster response

• Use of drones and robots for monitoring

• Life-cycle electrical and fuel interruption models

• What do the improved forecast models mean for the “price of tea in China”?

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Useful data from forecast Models

• There is a gap between making better forecasts and making better decisions

• How do better forecasts provide first responders with actionable information?

• How do they provide decision support for policy makers?

• How do they assist society in general answer the questions that are most generally important?

• This is another job that WE needs to tackle.

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Ubiquitous Sensing and IOT• Sensors are becoming much cheaper and have

integrated data processing and communication

• Sensor networks can provide 3-d and real time information for all stakeholders

• There are many issues to resolve before they realize their potential– Tsunami of data that is makes it all but useless

– Determining what needs sensing and how to combine data into decision support information

– Ensuring data quality and sensor functionality

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Cybersecurity is a threat

Converged IT SecurityPhysical security and emergency response were not typically considered an internet of

computer security issue, but is becoming one since alarms and surveillance systems are now

digital and networked. Cross domain attacks on electrical grid and industrial systems wreak

physical as well as data loss assets (Stuxnet, Ukraine Power Grid, Air vehicles)

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Information

Security and

networks

Internet of things:

Cyber physical

Security

Physical security and

emergency response

Information Security

and networksevolving Being Studied Being Studied

Internet of things:

Cyber physical

Security

emerging evolving emerging

Physical security and

emergency responseBeing Studied emerging evolving

Coordinated Emergency Response:

Cloudy Weather ahead

• Cloud computing (distributed, centrally managed data centers) is emerging to take the place of data centers. It has advantages of lower cost and flexibility as well as centralized security

• But many organizations use a number of clouds from suppliers such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, IBM, Rackspace etc

• With applications moving to the cloud a number of issues arise: common interfaces, interoperability, secure communications and common management

• Federation (a common management as at a mall) can help organizations manage multi-clouds)

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If you had a Dream

• What is your response to the new technology for hurricane and disaster response?

• If you had three wishes that you could make for new technology, policies or processes, what would they be?

• Please email me at jdubow@fulcrumit.com or Tony Hurley aenergyman@aol.com

• We will include it in our ASIS Utilities/Government subpanel to help make things better.

• Anything come to mind now?

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6. Future Issues

We need an emergency manhunt

to locate “We”

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. Everyone agrees we ought do invest more in infrastructure resilienceYet when it comes time to write checks, “we” is nowhere to be found

Context of Risk Mitigation

Investments

• Many are predicting that atmospheric and geoclimactic changes will result in increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes

• Infrastructure hardening and wetlands restoration will improve infrastructure resilience

• It is suggested that WE ought to invest in this

• It isn’t be done because the return on investment isn’t positive, or soon enough

• Social factors aren’t given much weight in decisions

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Example: Florida DOT

• Has an “adopted work program” that was studied in 2016

• Metric is (increase in state revenue-state investment)/state investment

• Greater than 1 is good, less than zero is bad

• Aviation and Seaports are between 1 and 2 because of tourism and total economic activity

• Roads, rails and public transport have cost savings to consumers and business, but don’t translate into State Revenue. Thus Uncle We is assigned the job.

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7. Questions and awards

presentation

Its time for the quiz

• How effective was emergency response for Hurricane Matthew?

• Are there any critical preparations that need to be made?

• What are the individual responders needs?

• Please write Tony or me.

• If you write us we will send you the presentation award.

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