HURRICANE PAMHURRICANE PAM7AM CDT Mon Sep 27, 20047AM CDT Mon Sep 27, 2004

Pre-LandfallPre-Landfall

Briefing Package #4Briefing Package #4

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Past and Current ConditionsPast and Current Conditions

Conditions Rapidly Deteriorating during Pre-Conditions Rapidly Deteriorating during Pre-dawn hoursdawn hours– Burrwood NOAA C-man - NE 55kt gust 80 ktBurrwood NOAA C-man - NE 55kt gust 80 kt– New Orleans Armstrong Int’l AirportNew Orleans Armstrong Int’l Airport

NE 30 kt gust 45 kt in squall , 1.5 inches of rain.NE 30 kt gust 45 kt in squall , 1.5 inches of rain.

– Tides 3 to 5 feet above normal east side of Tides 3 to 5 feet above normal east side of Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes. Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes.

Current and Expected Conditions TodayCurrent and Expected Conditions Today– Hurricane conditions overspreading area.Hurricane conditions overspreading area.– Wind gust to 120 mph likely in coastal areasWind gust to 120 mph likely in coastal areas– Rapid increase in tide levels expected during day.Rapid increase in tide levels expected during day.

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Hurricane Pam – Adv. 48Hurricane Pam – Adv. 48

28.0 N, 88.8 W28.0 N, 88.8 W

Category 3 HurricaneCategory 3 Hurricane

Winds 120 mphWinds 120 mph

Expected to strike Expected to strike New Orleans New Orleans Tuesday as Cat 3Tuesday as Cat 3

Hurricane Warning Hurricane Warning from Morgan City LA from Morgan City LA to AL/FL Borderto AL/FL Border

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Satellite ImageSatellite Image

Images Courtesy of LSU Earth Scan Laboratory

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Satellite LoopSatellite Loop

Images Courtesy of LSU Earth Scan Laboratory

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Onset of Hurricane Force WindOnset of Hurricane Force Wind

Current Day/TimeCurrent Day/Time– 7AM Monday7AM Monday

Onset of Hurricane Onset of Hurricane Force Wind Force Wind – 7AM to 7PM today7AM to 7PM today

Seek refuge of last Seek refuge of last resort per advice of resort per advice of local emergency local emergency management management

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Inland WindsInland Winds

Hurricane Force Wind Hurricane Force Wind (>74 mph) as far north (>74 mph) as far north as Baton Rougeas Baton Rouge

50-74 mph Winds 50-74 mph Winds Possible to Alexandria Possible to Alexandria AreaArea

Tropical Storm Force Tropical Storm Force Winds Possible to Winds Possible to MonroeMonroe

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Storm Surge PotentialStorm Surge Potential

SLOSH ModelSLOSH Model

Worst Case Scenario at Worst Case Scenario at Each LocationEach Location

Category 3 Hurricane Category 3 Hurricane moving NNW 5 mph – moving NNW 5 mph – with high tide optionwith high tide option

14 to 17 ft storm surge 14 to 17 ft storm surge with locally higher valueswith locally higher values

Potential to overtop most Potential to overtop most leveeslevees

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24 Hour Rainfall24 Hour Rainfall

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24 Hour Future Rainfall24 Hour Future Rainfall

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48 Hour Future Rainfall48 Hour Future Rainfall

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72 Hour Future Rainfall72 Hour Future Rainfall

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Forecast River StatusForecast River Status

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River Flood OutlookRiver Flood Outlook

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Pearl River / Bogalusa, LAPearl River / Bogalusa, LA

Major FloodingMajor Flooding

Bogalusa Water Bogalusa Water Treatment Plant Treatment Plant

will be Threatenwill be Threaten

Property East of LAProperty East of LA

Hwy 21 will FloodHwy 21 will Flood

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Amite River/Denham Springs, LAAmite River/Denham Springs, LA

Major FloodingMajor Flooding

Flooding in Flooding in subdivisions along subdivisions along Tiger Bend, Antioch, Tiger Bend, Antioch, and Eliot Roads and Eliot Roads