33
HURRICANE RESILIENCE: LONG-RANGE PLANNING FOR THE PORT OF PROVIDENCE Aus7n Becker Nov. 10, 2015 URI Coastal Resources Seminar Series
HURRICANERESILIENCE:LONG-RANGEPLANNINGFORTHE
PORTOFPROVIDENCE
Aus7nBeckerNov.10,2015
URICoastalResourcesSeminarSeries
• Understandandcommentonstormscenario&consequences• Reviewfourlong-rangeresilienceconceptalterna9ves• Reviewpossiblelong-range“resiliencegoals”fortheportand
weighimportanceofeach• Providefeedbackonworkshopmethodologyasawayto
measureportvulnerabilityandini9ate• Iden9fycollec9veac9onthatneedstobediscussednowand
recommenda9onsforRIDOT
ReviewofWorkshopObjec7ves
h"p://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/
Perimeter=7MilesArea=1500Acres#ofbusinesses:~30#employed:
• Direct:~1,000• Indirect:~2,000
Totalforeigntrade(MT):• 4.8M(2013)• Rank:46(inUS)MainpetroleumsupplyforRIChanneldepth:40’(2004-$65M)
STUDYAREA
USACE,2013,2012FXMAssociates,2008;4WardPlanning,2015
EastProvidence
Providence
4
ThePortofProvidence
8-3-1528parCcipants
Photos:JohnHaymaker
Aug.3WorkshopAgenda
Scenariosa. SuperStormSandyandthePNYNJb. WhatthesciencesayscouldhappeninProvidencec. ConsequencesofCat3inweeks/months/years
Longtermresilienceconceptalterna7vesa. PresentWecisiontoolb. Threelongtermresilienceconceptalterna7vesc. Compareproposedlongtermresiliencegoalstoconcept
alterna7vesConclusionAdjournforcocktails(Sponsor:ProvidenceWorkingWaterfrontAlliance)
HurricaneScienceanda“HurricaneScenario”
R.DuncanMcIntosh,MPS
UniversityofRhodeIsland
DepartmentofMarineAffairs
RhodeIslandHurricanes:HistoricalRecord
• 37hurricaneswithin50miofRIsince1851• ≈4yearreturnperiod• ≈22.8%chanceofhurricaneperyear
StormSurgeinaChangingClimate
Photo:KrisAllred
FortheNortheasternUS:By2050today’s100-yearstormsurgeevent
maybeequaledorexceededevery30years.
(Kirshenetal.2008)
1 74-95 somedamage
2 96-110 extensivedamage
3 111-129 Devasta9ngdamage
4 130-156 Catastrophicdamage
5 >157 Catastrophicdamage
• ‘Directhit’forProvidence
• Comparableto1938hurricane,butshifed~80miEast
• ComparabletoSandywithoutthe‘lefhook’
HurricaneScenario
HurricaneScenario
• GISVisualiza9onof21f“bathtub”inunda9on
• AssumesFoxPointBarriernotovertopped
• Onlyshowspassivelevelofsea
• Doesnotshowexpected6-10’waveac9on
• Youhavehardcopiesofthismapatyourtables
• BasedonRIGIS,2013DEMderivedfroma1-meterresolu9ondigitaleleva9onmodeloriginallyproducedaspartoftheNortheastLiDARProjectin2011.
SURGE
ProvPort
See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html
MetalsRecycling,Inc.
See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html
Mo7va
See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html
Sprague
See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html
ExxonMobile(E.Providence)
See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html
Wilkes-BarrePier(CapitalTerminals,E.Providence)
See:hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/storm-scenario.html
PreliminaryFindings
Weeks
Lossofcri9calfacili9escripplesbusinessEnergysupplycompromised(hospitals,ins9tu9ons,etc.)RawwastewaterdischargeDebriscleanup,debrisobstruc9ons,debrisasbaqeringram
Months
DamagedroadsandraildisruptcommerceDebris/sedimenta9onrequiresurveying,restrictnaviga9onBulkhead/pierdamageresultinpermisngdelays&repairErosionofriverbankleadstosedimentloadingofdeepchannel
Years
Long-termenvironmentalimpactstoNarr.BayEconomicimpacts,butliqleclarityovertheirnatureRiskstocompe9venessofportifperceivedasvulnerabletostormsIncreaseininsuranceratescouldforcebusinesstoleave
ResilienceStrategies:4long-termresiliencedesign
concepts
hqp://www.portofprovidenceresilience.org/
1.DoNothing–Nochangetoportresilience
1.DoNothing–Nochangetoportresilience
Advantages
• Low/noupfrontcosts• Nodisrup9onun9lstorm
event(s)occur• Easy• Allowsforinvestmentsin
otherpriori9es
Disadvantages• Riskofmajorcatastrophe
afereachstormevent• Riskofbusinessesleaving
theState• Riskofmajorenvironmental
damagetoNarraganseqBay
• Riskofchannelclosingforweeks/months
• Impactstostate’senergysupplies
2.Accommodate–Site-specificimprovementstoincreaseresilience
Elevate
ElevatedU9li9esandGenerator(Pt.Judith,RI)
Landunderneathinfrastructure(Gulfport,MS)
Advantages
• Costscanbeincremental• Site-specificity• Low-costop9ons• Singlebusinesscouldimprove
itsownresilience• CouldaddressSLR• Doesnotdisruptportsystem
asawhole
Disadvantages
• Limitedinabilitytoprotectagainstmajorstorm
• Doesnotaddressinterdependentuses
• Stormcouldresultinhighlevelsofenvironmentaldamages
• Fewtestedexamplesforindustrialwaterfronts
• Lesslikelytoprotectnaviga9onchannelfromdebris
2.Accommodate–Site-specificimprovementstoincreaseresilience
3.RelocateMoveportusestolessvulnerableloca9on.
Providence~21f
Quonset~15f
Newport~14f
Characteris7c Pts.
1000’from>40’water
3
1000’from30-40’water
2
1000’from10-20’water
1
1000’fromType6waters
2
Currentlanduseindustrial
2
Currentlandusevacant
2
Industrialzoninginplace
1
>1milefromhighwayexit
1
<1000’fromrailline
1
Example:EastProvidenceTerminals
ExxonMobileTerminal
Eleva9on~50f
ExxonMobileBerth
3.Relocate–Movingportusestolessvulnerableloca7on.
Advantages• Removeshazardousmaterials
fromfloodplain• Testedstrategyhasbeen
implementedelsewhere• Opensfloodplainaspublic
waterfrontspaceand/orenvironmentalremedia9on
• CanaccountforSLR• Reducesdebrisinnaviga9on
channelaferstorm• Improveswaterqualityto
ProvidenceHarbor
Disadvantages• Disruptsportnetwork• Limitedlandavailability• Highcosts• Mayimpactcommuni9es
aroundreloca9onsites• Complexi9esfromdependence
onu9li9es(e.g.,pipelines,rail,highway)
• Maydisplaceenvironmentaldamagestootherplaces
4.Protect–NewstormbarrierforProvidenceHarbor.
StormGate
Berm
RemoveFoxPointBarrier
FloodwaterStorage
Image:LAR4442014
Advantages• Protectsduringallmajor
events• Newpublicusescanbe
integrated(e.g.,onberm)• Doesnotdisruptshipping• Createssafeharborfornew
business• Testedsolu9on• Verylongtermsolu9on• FreesuplandinCitythrough
removalofcurrentbarriersystem
Disadvantages• Impactsofsealevelriseare
notaddressed• Mayimpact9dalflows(water
quality)• Impactssedimentflow,water
quality,dischargefromwatershed(sedimenta9onofnaviga9onchannel)
• Highupfrontcosts• MayimpactviewofBay• Mayrequirepumpingdueto
increasedfreshwaterflows
4.Protect–StormbarrierforProvidenceHarbor.
29
CONCEPTS G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7
Protect
Relocate
Accommodate
DoNothing
RESILIENCEGOALSREVIEW
1 2 3 4 5LESSEFFECTIVE MOREEFFECTIVE
1. Ensurepost-hurricanebusinesscon9nuityforwaterfrontbusiness2. Minimizehurricanedamageforinfrastructureandwaterfront
business3. Minimizehurricane-relatedenvironmentaldamagefromportuses.4. Buildpublicsupportforhurricaneresiliencemeasures&port
opera9ons5. Minimizehazardinsurancerates6. Fosterportgrowth7. Protecthumansafety&cri9callifelines
20
0
10
Preliminaryfindings• Noclearlong-termportplanformajorhurricaneevent
• Difficulttoen9ceprivatebusinesstopar9cipatewhennextstepsaren’tclear
• Noclearchampion(gov’torprivate)totaketheleadonlong-termplanning
• Businessesveryresistantto“relocate”concept,mostlybecausetheyfeltitwouldnotbefeasible
• Overall,“protect”wouldbethefavoredstrategy• Stakeholdersfounditdifficulttoengagebecausecostswerenotpartofconversa9on
• Costcalcula9onsverydifficulttoes9mate
PreliminaryRecommenda9ons• Reviseworkshopmethodology(e.g.,probabilis9cstormscenario,addcostandfeasibility,addmore9mefordiscussion)
• Createdatabaseofexpertsandbestprac9cestoincludeinresiliencedialogues
• Createadhocstakeholdergrouptobeginmoreformaldialoguearoundlong-termresilienceplanning
• Engageportwithexis9ngclimateeffortsinthestate(e.g.,theEC4,CRMCBeachSAMP)
• Create“poststormrebuildinggoalsandstrategies”• Iden9fybusiness-con9nuityopportuni9esbeforethestormhits(e.g.,con9ngencycontracts,debrisdes9na9ons)
• Conducteconomicassessmentof“portshutdown”
ProjectTeamLeadsEvanMaqhews,PortofDavisville,ChairofSteeringCommiqeeDr.Aus9nBecker,URI,Projectco-leadDr.RickBurroughs,URI,Projectco-leadDr.JohnHaymaker,AreaResearch,WecisionleadMarkAmaral,LighthouseConsul9ng,WorkshopFacilitator
SteeringCommiaeeDanGoulet,CRMCCoreyBobba,FHWADr.JulieRosas,USACEKatherineTouzinsky,USACEPamRubinoff,CRC/RISeaGrantKevinBlount,USCGBillMcDonald,MARADMeredithBrady,RIDOTJohnRiendeau,CommerceRIDavidEvereq,CityofProvidenceDept.ofPlanningChrisWiq,RIStatewidePlanning
StudentsEricKretsch,JuliaMiller,DuncanMcIntosh,EmilyHumphries,
PeterStempel,EmilyTradd,NicoleAndrescavage,ZaireGarreq,BrianLaverriere,LAR444Class
