Date post: | 21-Aug-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | nguyenphuc |
View: | 214 times |
Download: | 0 times |
1 of 2
© Copyright 2011 Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the written permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This report is for general guidance only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis“). Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use.
Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation.
Tropical Storm MariaInformation from NHC Advisory 35A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday September 15, 2011Tropical Storm Maria’s rain-bands are affecting Bermuda. On the forecast track, Maria will quickly pass west of Bermuda later today. There is a possibility that Maria will become a hurricane today, however weakening is forecast thereafter.
Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC)
Max Sustained Wind Speed:
65 mph (tropical storm)
Position Relative to Land: 325 miles WSW of Bermuda
Est. Time & Region: n/aMin Central Pressure: 999 mb Coordinates: 30.9, 67.8 W
Trop. Storm ForceWinds (39+ mph):
205 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: NNE or 15 degrees at 26 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind
Speed: n/a
HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY
eVENT™
Forecast Summary• Within 12 hours, there is a 46% chance Maria will remain a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds), a 54% chance Maria will strengthen to a hurricane
(74+ mph winds) and near 0% chance Maria will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate.
• The windfield map – based on the BAMM 06:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at
category 1 hurricane strength (74-95 mph winds). The BAMM – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the
current “best performing” model for Tropical Storm Maria by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are
shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Maria’s forecast track.
• Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1-3 inches across Bermuda through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected on
Bermuda later today with hurricane conditions possible.
• The NHC estimates that Bermuda has an 82% chance of experiencing weak tropical storm force winds (39-58 mph) and a 25% chance of
experiencing strong tropical storm force winds (58-73 mph) from Maria within the next 24 hours.
Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Maria(National Hurricane Center)
Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Tropical Storm Maria(Based on BAMM as of 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.
New YorkNew York
MontrealMontreal
CACA
USUS
Bermuda
09-17
09-16
09-15
0 1,000 2,000500 Miles
weak TSstrong TSCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5All Fcst Tracks
below 1 in1 - 3 in3 - 6 in6 - 9 in9 - 12 in12 - 24 inBAMM FcstTrackNHC FcstTrack
Ï!D TD
Ï!S TS
Ï!1 Cat1
Ï!2 Cat2
Ï!3 Cat3
Ï!4 Cat4
Ï!5 Cat5
Page 2 of 2
Roy Cloutier7760 France Avenue SouthMinneapolis, MN [email protected]+1 (952) 841-6652
Contact us
Brian Owens51 Lime Street London EC3M [email protected]+44 (0)20 3124 7637
Warnings, Watches and New Tropical Cyclone PotentialA hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area, in this case within 18 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case within 18 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.
NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone FormationThe map to the right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical
cyclone formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic.
There is a nearly 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the
yellow region near Africa, within the next 48 hours.
National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 15, 2011
Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to DateTropical Storm Activity to DateMaria is the thirteenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic
Hurricane Season. Eleven named storms, five hurricanes
and four major hurricanes - Danielle, Earl, Igor and Julia -
had occurred by this date last year. The next tropical storm
of 2011 will be named Ophelia.
For the years 1995-2010, the average dates of the fourteenth
and eleventh named storms are Oct 20 and Sep 29,
respectively. Aug 23 and Sep 13 are the average dates of the
second and fifth hurricanes. Sep 9 and Sep 24 are the
average date of the second and fourth major hurricanes.
Benchmarking the 2011 Atlantic Season to DateTropical Storms
Total Hurricanes
Cat 3-5 Hurricanes
2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 9/15/11) 14 2 22010 year to date (1/1/10 – 9/15/10) 11 5 41995-2010 season average 14.4 7.9 3.81950-2010 season average 10.5 6.2 2.72010 CSU season forecasts(Colorado State University at Aug 3)
16 9 5
2010 NOAA season forecasts(NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 4)
14-19 7-10 3-5
Risk Remaining in the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonAtlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity
(categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph to the
right illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days
with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 15 is 42.9% for all hurricanes and 37.4% for major hurricanes.
Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900
0%
12%
24%
36%
48%
60%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ave
rage
Dai
ly R
isk
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ave
rage
Rem
aini
ng R
isk
All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)