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Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November 16, 2013
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Page 1: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Hydrology in the National Weather Service

Mark FuchsService Hydrologist

National Weather ServiceSt. Louis, MO

Presentation to local Media PartnersNovember 16, 2013

Page 2: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

• Define flooding and hydrology• Describe factors that contribute to flooding and define flooding categories• Describe the CHPS and the hydrologic forecast process at the RFCs• Provide an overview of the Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service (AHPS) resources and 90-day streamflow outlook tools• Provide additional NWS resource locations

Objectives

Page 3: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Growing Demand for Water Information

Page 4: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

• Flash Flood – a rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area, or a rapid water level rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level, beginning within six hours of the causative event (e.g., intense rainfall, dam failure, ice jam).

• Flood – high flow, overflow, or inundation by water which causes or threatens damage.

Flood vs. Flash Flood

Page 5: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

• Pre-season water levels• Received precipitation/snowfall• Air/ground temperature• Soil moisture• Ice Jams• Snowpack/snow melt

Factors Contributing to a Flood

Page 6: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

• Action Stage: Water is near or over the top of its banks in spots, but no structures are flooded; any flooding is typically limited to parkland and marshland.

• Minor Flood Stage: Few buildings are expected to be inundated, roads, parklands and yards may be covered with water and water may go under buildings on stilts or higher elevations.

• Moderate Flood Stage: Inundation of buildings, roads closed and/or cut off. Some evacuations may be necessary.

• Major Flood Stage: Significant to catastrophic, life-threatening flooding is expected. Extensive flooding with some low-lying areas completely inundated. Structures may be completely submerged. Large-scale evacuations may be necessary.

Flood Categories

Page 7: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

NWS USACE USGS

• NWS – Forecasts• USACE – Engineering and Reservoirs• USGS – River observations and measurements

Page 8: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

USGS and USACE river gauges

Page 9: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

USACE water control

Page 10: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

NWS OperationsAverage Person Only Sees Tip of Iceberg

Private Weather Companies

InternetRadioTV

NWR

122 Weather Forecast Offices

9 National Centers for

Environmental Prediction

13 RiverForecastCenters

Radar Network

SatellitesWeather Balloons

Ground-LevelObservations

Data Buoys

Climate andSeasonalOutlooks

VolunteerNetwork

ModelSimulations

Aviation & Ocean Forecasts

Severe Thunderstormand Tornado Prediction

Space WeatherForecasts

HurricaneForecasts

Government

StreamGauge

Network

River Forecasts

90-day outlooks

Page 11: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

11

NWS OperationsPresence at National, Regional and Local Levels

Page 12: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

NWS River Forecasts

Page 13: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

NWS River Forecast Centers

www.water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php

Page 14: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Three River Forecast Centers serve the St. Louis Service Area

14

MBRFC

NCRFC

LMRFC

Page 15: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

FCFEWS

National Weather Service Northeast River Forecast Center 15

CHPS: Community Hydrologic Prediction System

FEWS Models

NWS Models

HEC Models

Other Models

CHPS

Page 16: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

CHPS NERFC – Alternative data views

CHPS: Providing the forecaster an interface to data

• Intuitive graphical interfaces• Lots of map support• Highly configurable views

CHPS NCRFC – flood status in several catchments

Page 17: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

CHPS: Data visualization and editing – Graphical data

• Powerful graphical tools for viewing time series data

• Point time series Longitudinal profiles (animated)

• Editing capabilities – copy to-from e.g. Excel

Historical event: River Rouge, Detroit

Longitudinal Display

Page 18: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

CHPS: Using and displaying probabilistic data

• Import ensemble data (e.g. ECMWF, GFS, NAM)• Run models for ensemble members• Results

– Statistical Summary– Verification

The CHPS database model is inherently ensemble-aware

Model #2 for 31-05-2007 00:00 UTC

Model #1 for 31-05-2007 00:00 UTC

Page 19: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Hydrologic Forecast Process

Modeling how much rain gets into the river (Rainfall to Runoff)

Modeling snowmelt runoff (Snow model) Modeling how fast water gets to the river

gage (Unit Hydrograph) Modeling how fast upstream water arrives

at the gage (Routing) Translating water volume into water height

(Rating)

Page 20: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Soil Moisture Conditions

Page 21: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Accumulated snow and ice pack

Page 22: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Observed Precipitation

Page 23: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Forecast Precipitation

Page 24: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Rainfall to Runoff Modeling

Page 25: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 150 156

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Series1

Time (hours)

Unit HydrographMeramec River near Steelville, Missouri

Flow

(cfs

)

Page 26: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Routing

Time

Gage

Heig

ht

Page 27: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.
Page 28: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

River Forecasts – How are they created?River Forecasts – How are they created?

Observed PrecipitationObserved

PrecipitationFuture

PrecipitationFuture

Precipitation

Soil ModelRainfall to Runoff

Soil ModelRainfall to Runoff

Local Basin

Rating CurveFlow to StageRating CurveFlow to Stage

Unit HydrographRunoff to Flow

Unit HydrographRunoff to Flow

Upstream FlowUpstream FlowUpstream River Gage

Basin Local FlowBasin Local Flow Total Flow(cfs)

Total Flow(cfs)

ForecasterModificationForecaster

ModificationForecastTo PublicForecastTo Public

Forecast River Gage

Page 29: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Forecast Considerations

Ground State (How dry is it?) Past Model Performances Rainfall (Gage-based or Radar-based?) Rainfall Variability

• Space• Time

Page 30: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Rainfall Variability

Page 31: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Rainfall Variability

Page 32: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Rainfall Variability

Page 33: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Rainfall Variability

Page 34: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Rainfall Variability

Page 35: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

RFC Products and Services

Page 36: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

WFO Products and Services

Page 37: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

• These graphical products are useful planning tools.

• Enable users to make more informed decision about policies and actions to mitigate the dangers posed by floods and droughts.

• New feature demo

AHPS

Page 38: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

River Forecasts

Page 39: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

ImpactsWhat constitutes impacts?– Flooded cropland and parks– Flooded roadways– Damaged storage buildings and garages– Businesses and residences– Levee breaches vs. overtopping– Navigational issues– Water intake problems

Defined as any water level disrupting human activity.

Page 40: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Impacts

Page 41: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Low Flow and Impacts

Page 42: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk

Page 43: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Probability Outlooks

Page 44: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Probability Outlooks

Page 45: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Spring Outlooks

Page 46: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

December 2013 – February 2014

Page 47: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

December 2013 – February 2014

Page 48: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Resources

• www.water.weather.gov• www.weather.gov• www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov• www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov• www.nohrsc.nws.gov

Page 49: Hydrology in the National Weather Service Mark Fuchs Service Hydrologist National Weather Service St. Louis, MO Presentation to local Media Partners November.

Questions


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