Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges

in Central Asia

Bakhtiyor MukhammadievUS Embassy Tashkent

These slides are personal opinion only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

Central Asian ESTH News

Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks01/21/2009

Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute04/19/2006

Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations03/12/2009

Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis01/21/2009

Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region02/11/2008

Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan02/12/2010

Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People03/03/2007 World Bank Group

Statement on Water-Energy in Central Asia03/11/2010

Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, DespiteUzbekistan’s Objection04/12/2009

Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asia’s Water Problem04/15/2007

Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute?04/22/2006

The Amu-Darya River Basin

The Syr-Darya River Basin

Total water resources: 116 km3/year

50%

25%

2%

1%

10%

5% / 12%

52%

20%

10%

11%5%

Central Asia StatisticsCountries Population

(106)(2009)

GDP(109 USD)

(2009)

Dependence on trans-boundary

waters(%)

Energy Security

(%)

Food Security

(%)(2010)

ODA(106 USD)

(2006)

Military Spending(109 USD)

(2007)

Kyrgyzstan 5.3 4.6 0 73 57 311 0.17

Tajikistan 7.0 5.0 0 69 31 240 0.53

Upstream 12.3 9.6 0 71 44 551 0.7

Kazakhstan 15.9 115 42 100 100 172 1.6

Turkmenistan 5.1 20 94 100 50 26 1.1

Uzbekistan 27.8 32 77 100 55 149 1.6

Downstream 48.8 139 71 100 65 347 4.3

Central Asia 61.1 167 18 86 58.6 898 5.0

New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia

Environ-mental Securit

y

Food Securit

y

Energy Securit

y

90% and 95% of energy in

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come

from hydro

Environmental refugees

(Environment and Security

Initiative)

Food security/Water

scarcity/Access to Water/Pro-

poor Irrigation

Water Security

Water security is a common feature

Understanding Central Asia

HISTORY LEGACY RELIGION

POLITICS SECURITY GEOPOLITICSECONOMICS

NATION-BUILDING

Understanding Water in Central Asia

Resource sovereignty Crumbling infrastructure Planned Projects

Access to water Environmental security Drought & floods Rivalry

Water for Afghanistan Climate change Declaratory regionalismEnergy security

Aral Sea (N/A)

Natural losses

(6.5 km3=5%)

Total withdrawals

(120 km3=93%)

Irrigation, 90%

Industry, 5.4%

Drinking, 3.2%

Env. flow, 1.4%

Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya Rivers

(116 km3)Groundwater

(13 km3)

Total(129 km3=100%)

Return water33 km3=29%

Discharged into depressions

(10 km3=30%)

Back to rivers(18 km3=55%)Reused water

(5 km3=15%)

Aral Sea Basin Water Balance

Central Asian Water Related Agreements

BWO Syr-Darya

UDC Energy

Irrigation-energy trade-offs

Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syr-Darya Basin

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan

04/17/1998

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water

50/50 division of Amu-Darya flow at Kerki river post

Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues

Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

01/16/1996

Charjev, Turkmenistan

ICAS/IFASSustainable development; obligation to cooperate

Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

03/26/1993

Kyzylorda,

Kazakhstan

ICWC; BWO Amu-Darya; BWO Syr-Darya

Institutions

Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm

Governing Rules

Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

02/18/1992

Almaty, Kazakhstan

TitlePartiesDate/place

Central Asian Regional Institutions

HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL

International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (IFAS) President

EC IFAS Branchin Nukus,

Uzbekistan

EC IFAS Branchin Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan

EC IFAS Branchin Dashauz,

Turkmenistan

Interstate Commission

for Water Coordination

Scientific-Information Center

(Tashkent)

BWO Syr-Darya(Tashkent)

BWO Amu-Darya(Urgench)

Interstate Commission for

Sustainable Development

Secretariat Scientific Information

Center(Ashgabat)

IFAS Board of Directors

IFAS Executive Committee

(Almaty)

TAJIKISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

UZBEKISTANNUREK Status: Under construction

Purpose: Hydropower, irrigationVolume: 13 km3Capacity: 3600 MWCost: 2.2-5 Billion USDStatus: Under construction

Purpose: HydropowerDuration: 2005-2010Capacity: 670+220 MWCost: 650 and 182 Million USD

SANGTUDA 1 & 2

Status: ProposedPurpose: Hydropower, irrigationVolume: 17.6 km3Capacity: 4000 MWCost: 3.2 Billion USD

DASHTIJUM

ROGHUN

1

5

4

3

2

6

7

8

910

Baipaza

Sangtuda-1

Sangtuda-2

Golovnaya

Perepadnaya

Tsentralnaya

Shurob

ROGHUN

DASHTIJUM

TURKMENISTAN

Kambarata I&II Projects in KG

Purpose: HydropowerVolume: 4.7 km3

Duration: 2005-2010Capacity: 190+360 MWCost: 2.2 Billion USD

Status: Under construction

Unilateral developmentsSyr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,

Kazakhstan

Fergana Reservoirs in UZ

Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releasesVolume: 2.5 km3

Duration: 2004-20--Cost: N/A

Status: Under construction

Koksaray Reservoir in KZ

Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releasesVolume: 3 km3

Duration: 2007-2010Cost: 200 Million USD

Status: Completed

Unilateral developmentsGolden Century Lake of Turkmenistan

Karakum Canal

Golden Century Canal

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

Iran

Turkmenistan

Amudarya River

Karashor Depression:Golden Century Lake site

Purpose: Agricultural developmentDuration: 2002-2022Volume: 132 km3

Cost: 9 Billion USD

Status: Under construction

STATUS-QUO According to the 1946 agreement between the

Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km3/yr.

[possible] Unilateral Development

Amu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan

POTENTIAL IMPACT Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from

the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya.

PROPOSED PROJECTS Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the

northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.

Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN “…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along

its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…”

President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York

“…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…”

“…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed…”

“…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…”

Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009

Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009

Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN

“…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan…”

“…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan…”

Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York

Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010

Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit

of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, 08/30/2010

Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN “…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate

existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries…”

“…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…”

“… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…”

“…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants…”

“…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts…”

President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009

Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the

International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009

Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009

Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN

“…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built…”

“…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…”

“…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management…”

Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010

Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstanwww.mfa.kz

President of Kazakhstan Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev,

United Nations

Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN “…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on

the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations…”

“…the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages…”

“… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of water…”

“…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...”

President of Turkmenistan Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov,

UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009

Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake;

Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode;

Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan;

Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water;

Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea;

Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges.

Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River (Embassy Dushanbe)

Roghun site 2008

Roghun site 2010

Nurek reservoirNurek Dam

Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on Roghun (November 2008)

Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules; Amu-Darya’s natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the

runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct); Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream

(22% less water on average); The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam

can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU;

Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands; Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated

fields downstream; $4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields,

processing and fishing industry; $146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands,

pastures, extinction of animal and bird species); Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million

people in Turkmenistan; Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million

people in downstream; Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with

daily regulation of storages.

World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies- The Five-Point Program -

Consultant (Assessment) Studies

The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT, including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim and draft reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects.

Regional Studies The bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank managed trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet both domestic energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of hydrological data and analysis.

Panels of Experts The Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality assurance. Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be drawn from outside former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel will focus on the ESIA; however, the Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary linkages between the two studies (Note: These Panels are usually convened by the Borrower)

Riparian Involvement The Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the Assessment Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The specific program will be determined with input from riparians.

Commitments GOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer dam. The Bank’s involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the operation policies and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.

Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events

2010: Aral SeaBasin Program

Phase III

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19981991 1992 1991 1992 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20061999 2000 2007-11

2007: UZ accedes to 1992 UNECEand 1997 UN

Water Conventions

1998: UN SpecialProgram for Economies

of Central Asia

2001: ShanghaiCooperationOrganization

2001: EurasianEconomic

Community

1992: EconomicCooperationOrganization

1997: Central AsianEconomic Cooperation

Organization

1994: Central AsianEconomic

Cooperation

1993: Commonwealthof Independent

States

1992: Almaty Agreement: ICWC, BWOs

1993: Kyzylorda Agreement: ICAS / IFAS

Co

lla

ps

e o

f U

SS

R

1994: Aral SeaBasin Program

Phase I

1998: SyrdaryaFrameworkAgreement

2002: DushanbeDeclaration

of Heads of State

1996: AmudaryaAgreement between

UZ and TU

2000: Chu-TalasAgreement between

KG and KZ

2006: MoU between

AF and TJ

2000: KZ accedes to 1992 UNECE

Water Convention

1995: Nukus Declaration

of Heads of State

2002: Aral SeaBasin Program

Phase II

1999: Agreementson (1) Hydrometeorologyand (2) Parallel Operation

of Energy Systems

2001: TW Framework Agreement between

KZ and CN

2006: FrameworkAgreement on

EP and SD in CA

2009: Heads of State Joint Statement

Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

The Aral Sea2000 2001 2002 2003

2004 2005 2006 2007

2008 2009 2010 2011