WELCOMEI-395 SEMINARY ROAD RAMP — TRAFFIC ANALYSIS FOR THE CONVERSION FROM HOV TO HOT
To develop a transportation solution that:
✓ Encourages greater use of existing interstate network and capacity
✓ Reduces congestion on the general purpose lanes
✓ Improves safety ✓ Improves network reliability and provide predictable travel choice
Project goals
To provide information and gain public input:
� Traffic analysis findings � Safety findings
Goals of tonight’s meeting
Opportunities to provide formal comment for the public record:
� Submit written comments on the comment sheet
� Ask questions following the presentation
PROJECT BENEFITS
✓ Expanded travel choices � The Project utilizes existing infrastructure to provide an
alternative choice for single or double occupancy vehicles – post-conversion HOV3+ will travel free 24/7
� Analysis shows utilization of the ramp increases when converted from HOV to HOT
✓ To repurpose underutilized infrastructure � The ramp is underutilized today, carrying only
49 – 61% of forecasted volumes for 2015
✓ Improved reliability � Reduces congestion on I-395 general purpose lanes � Increased ability for the interstate network to handle
crashes and other congestion events
✓ Improved safety � Overall estimated crash rate reduction across
general purpose and HOT ramps
✓ Improved operations on local streets � The increase in volumes on the HOT ramp exceeds the decrease
in volumes on the general purpose lanes, indicating cars are being drawn from local streets to the HOT Lanes (see figure)
� No impact or small reductions in traffic volumes on local streets
Anticipated traffic volumes on the NB ramps during the AM peak period
2020 No Build/HOV 2020 Build/HOT
Local Streets AMGP AM HOV/HOT AM
135
230 525
1,470 1,310
PROJECT INFORMATION AND SCHEDULE
Existing infrastructure � Ramp constructed by VDOT in 2012, opened in 2016 � No additional civil construction required
Signage and pavement marking changes � No new signage or digital messaging boards � Seminary Road: 4 sign removals, 5 sign overlays, 2 sign replacements, and 2 sets of pavement message replacements
� I-395 Northbound General Purpose Lanes: 4 sign removals, 1 sign overlay, 3 sign replacements, and 2 sets of pavement message removals
TASKS LATE 2019 EARLY 2020 MID 2020
Public meeting December 9th
Public comment period closes December 31st
Traffic analysis input from the City of Alexandria
Traffic analysis and NEPA approval from FHWA
Traffic analysis approval from VDOT
Target ramp conversion
STUDY AREA
Study area and data collection
✓ Study area limits and intersections were delineated in coordination with VDOT, FHWA, and the City of Alexandria
✓ Further traffic counts in a wider area were completed to inform the larger analysis of local streets
✓ Data was collected during October and November 2018
✓ Automatic traffic recorder and turning movement counts were collected for the study area
✓ 70+ intersections were studied
Eisenhower Ave
Janneys Ln
Columbia Pike
UV236UV620
UV648
495
395
95
UV 7
UV236
.1
W Braddock Rd
N Q
uaker Ln
ALEXANDRIAWEST
LANDMARK
DEL RAY
Russell Rd
Extended study area for cut-through analysis
Initial study area for traffic analysis
EXISTING CONDITIONS � Utilizing existing infrastructure � The ramp is underutilized, and currently carrying only 49-61% of the traffic forecasted for 2015 in the peak hour
Seminary Rd
< 395 Express Lanes (reversible) >
395 GP NB >
< 395 GP SB
Seminary HOV Ramp (south-facing)
Reversible – Currently operating as HOV
Seminary HOT Ramp (north-facing)
Reversible – Converted from HOV to HOT November 17, 2019
LegendMorning Direction
Afternoon Direction
EXPRESS LANES NETWORK
DullesInternational
Airport
Ronald ReaganWashington National Airport
M A R Y L A N D
M A R Y L A N D
V I R G I N I A
John HansonHighway
PennsylvaniaAvenue
Richmond Highway
Dulles Toll RoadDulles Access Road
Dulles GreenwayToll Road
1
1
29
50
15
17
1
267
286
235
28
190
189
190
123
7
28
234
WASHINGTON DC
495
95
95
95
270
495
495
495
395
395 695
295
95
95
66
66
3
295
295
5
4
7
610
610
3
50
50
29
1
301
301
301
301
301
301
5
George Washington
Parkway
George Washington
Parkway
Garrisonville Road
395 Express Lanes
95 Express Lanes
New Lane at Occoquan
495 Express Lanes
Northern Extension
Opitz BlvdConnection
66 Express Lanes
Seminary HOV South-facing Ramp
95 FredericksburgExtension
Greater Washington Area
Transurban asset
Motorway Upgrade Tunnel
495 Express Lanes Northern Extension and Opitz Blvd. Connection
Committed projects/projects under construction
N
� Opened November 17, 2019
� Extended existing 95 Express lanes from near Edsall Road to the D.C. line
� $15M annual transit investment
� Reversible in peak direction
� HOV-3+ travel free 24/7 with E-ZPass Flex in HOV ON mode
� The Seminary south-facing HOV ramp is a reversible access point that connects to the 395 Express Lanes
TRAFFIC OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS KEY FINDINGS
✓ Traffic volumes from general purpose lanes and local arterials move to the HOT lanes
✓ No adverse impacts on intersections in 2020 and 2040
✓ No adverse impacts on speeds along local streets in 2020 and 2040
✓ Findings do not change materially with and without the road diet along Seminary Road
✓ Ramp is underutilized today currently carrying only 49 – 61% of forecasted volumes for 2015
✓ Converting to HOT, volumes expected to be lower than original forecasts
Seminary Ramp Volumes (AM Peak Hour)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Existing Counts
2019 Study (IMR)
2019 Study (IMR)
2012 Study (IMR) 2015 Forecast (HOV)
2018 (HOV)
2020 Forecast (HOT)
2040 Forecast (HOT)
Seminary Ramp Volumes (PM Peak Hour)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Existing Counts
2019 Study (IMR)
2019 Study (IMR)
2012 Study (IMR) 2015 Forecast (HOV)
2018 (HOV)
2020 Forecast (HOT)
2040 Forecast (HOT)
TRAFFIC SAFETY ANALYSIS KEY FINDINGS
✓ Based on crash analysis, estimate less than 1 crash per year along the south facing HOV ramp
✓ Converting ramp from HOV to HOT increases traffic on HOT ramp and decreases traffic on general purpose (GP) ramp, therefore the estimated crash rate reduction on GP ramp is greater than the crash rate increase on the ramp operating as HOT
✓ In summary, estimate a net reduction in crashes on the corridor
Crash analysis performed using last 5 years (2014-2018) data for freeway, ramps & arterials within the IMR Study Areacrash rates compared with statewide and crash modification factors used to predict future crash frequency*Includes all on- and off-ramps within the IMR Study Area
EXTENDED STUDY AREA TRAFFIC ANALYSISAM PEAK HOUR 2020 — HOV vs. HOT
HOT scenario ✓ Increase in HOT ramp volume is greater than the decrease in the general purpose ramp volume
✓ Traffic shifts from general purpose lanes to HOT and from local streets to HOT
✓ Traffic filters from local streets south of Alexandria to I-495 general purpose lanesEisenhower Ave
Janneys Ln
Columbia Pike
UV236UV620
UV648
495
395
95
UV 7
UV236
.1
W Braddock Rd
N Q
uaker Ln
ALEXANDRIAWEST
LANDMARK
DEL RAY
Russell Rd
LegendIncrease
Decrease
No Material Change
395
Seminary Rd
UV401HOT
GP
HOT
HOT
GP
GP
Seminary Ramp
EXTENDED STUDY AREA TRAFFIC ANALYSISPM PEAK HOUR 2020 — HOV vs. HOT
HOT scenario ✓ Increase in HOT ramp volume is greater than the decrease in the general purpose ramp volume
✓ Traffic shifts from general purpose lanes to HOT and from local streets to HOT
✓ Small movement of traffic from local streets to interstate network
Eisenhower Ave
Janneys Ln
Columbia Pike
UV236UV620
UV648
495
395
95
UV 7
UV236
.1
W Braddock Rd
N Q
uaker Ln
ALEXANDRIAWEST
LANDMARK
DEL RAY
Russell Rd
395
Seminary Rd
UV401
HOT
GP
HOT
HOT
GP
GP
Seminary Ramp
LegendIncrease
Decrease
No Material Change