&NEWS TRENDS I Green building represents an increasing percentage of residential construction Note: Market value varies based on market size, percent of market remains constant. Green Home* Market Estimate: High Estimate Low Estimate $70 billion $40 billion $20 billion $12 billion $7 billion Percent of green market estimated to more than double between 2005 and 2008 Percent expected to double over next five years 2% of market 6% - 10% of market 12% - 20% of market $ (billions) Residential Green Building Market Growth Source: Based on surveys conducted by McGraw-Hill Construction between 2006 & 2008, MHC construction activity data and U.S. Department of Census Data. * Green home defined as one containing attributes in energy efficiency, indoor air quality, water efficiency, resource ef ficiency and site management. Growth in Green Total Work Expected to be Green In Five Years (2013) Architects Contractors 0% of work Up to 10% of work 21% to 30% of work 1% to 20% of work 41% to 50% of work 31% to 40% of work More than 50% of work Refused Overall Industry: 66% expect more than 20% of work to be green in five years 3% 3% 6% 17% 17% 34% 7% 13% 3% 2% 13% 15% 16% 20% 13% 18% Your Carbon Footprint You’ve heard a lot about it. There’s a simple calculator available on a Yahoo! site—green.yahoo.com/calculator A New LEED The USGBC introduced LEED 2009—a new version of its Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design—in November. There was a renewed emphasis on energy efficiency and emissions reduction. CFLs Get Salute! From Earth Day (4/22/08) to mid-October, 84 U.S. military bases installed 359,268 CFLs in 40,951 military housing units. The government says Operation Change Out will trim electricity use by nearly 100 million kWh over the bulbs’ lifetime. M cGraw-Hill Construction recently performed several research projects into the future of green construction. The company presented some of the results in its Oct. 23, 2008, “Out- look ‘09” conference in Washington, D.C. Power Outlet has selected five key slides for you to review, with especially interesting data, from a 67-slide presentation. continued on page 10 Green Construction’s Future Is Golden Higher estimates for the residential market in 2013 show expectations that 20% of the homes built in that year will be green. McGraw-Hill talked to architects and contractors about the future of green construction. Note that the “contractor” segment probably included general contractors and constructors more than subcontractors. POWER OUTLET rexelusa.com Volume 9 Number 1 8
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Green building represents an increasing percentage of residential construction
Note: Market value varies based on market size, percent of market remains constant.
Green Home* Market Estimate: High Estimate Low Estimate
$70 billion
$40 billion
$20 billion
$12 billion $7 billion
Percent of green market estimated to more than double between 2005 and 2008
Percent expected to double over next five years
2% of market
6% - 10% of market
12% - 20% of market
$ (b
illio
ns)
Residential Green Building Market Growth
Source: Based on surveys conducted by McGraw-Hill Construction between 2006 & 2008, MHC construction activity data and U.S. Department of Census Data.* Green home defined as one containing attributes in energy efficiency, indoor air quality, water efficiency, resource ef ficiency and site management.
Growth in GreenTotal Work Expected to be Green In Five Years (2013)
Architects Contractors
0% of work
Up to 10% of work
21% to 30% of work
1% to 20% of work
41% to 50% of work
31% to 40% of work
More than 50% of work
Refused
Overall Industry: 66% expect more than 20% of work to be green in five years
3%3%
6%
17%17%
34%
7%
13%
3%2%
13%
15%
16%
20%
13%
18%
Your Carbon Footprint
You’ve heard a lot about it. There’s a
simple calculator available on a Yahoo!
site—green.yahoo.com/calculator
A New LEED The USGBC introduced LEED
2009—a new version of its Leadership in Energy
and Environmental Design—in November. There was a renewed emphasis on energy
efficiency and emissions reduction.
CFLs Get Salute!From Earth Day (4/22/08) to
mid-October, 84 U.S. military bases installed 359,268 CFLs in 40,951 military housing units.
The government says Operation Change Out will trim electricity use by nearly 100 million kWh
over the bulbs’ lifetime.
McGraw-Hill Construction recently performed several research projects into the
future of green construction. The company presented some of the results in its oct. 23, 2008, “out-look ‘09” conference in Washington, D.C. Power Outlet has selected five key slides for you to review, with especially interesting data, from a 67-slide presentation.
continued on page 10
green Construction’s Future Is golden
higher estimates for the residential market in 2013 show expectations that 20% of the homes built in that year will be green.
McGraw-hill talked to architects and contractors about the future of green construction. note that the “contractor” segment probably included general contractors and constructors more than subcontractors.
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LEED in Project Specification Higher Specification in Larger Projects
LEED in Project Specifications Dormitories Top Industry Sector for Rate of LEED in Project Specifications
U.S. New Construction $19 Billion $60 - $100 Billion
Commercial / Institutional
$7 Billion
$20 – $30 Billion
Residential
$12 Billion
$40 - $70 Billion
U.S. Renovation $130 Billion $240 Billion
2007 2013 Projection
U.S. Green Building Market Opportunity Green Building Market Estimates
Source: Based on surveys conducted by McGraw-Hill Construction between 2006 & 2008, MHC construction activity data and U.S. Depart-ment of Census Data
* Green home defined as one containing attributes in energy efficiency, indoor air quality, water efficiency, resource efficiency and site management
* Green commercial/institutional building defined as being built according to LEED guidelines
Solar Maps: 25 CitiesReportedly, CH2M Hill’s a solar map of San Francisco— sf.solarmap.org—will be replicated
for 24 other cities.You enter in your address,
and estimate the size and cost of putting a
solar PV system on your roof.
More Solar Cells
New manufacturing facilities for solar cells and modules in MA, MI,
OH, OR & TX promise to add enough capacity to produce thousands of megawatts of solar
devices per year within the next few years, according to the Dept. of Energy.
eco-Friendly hospitals
PracticeGreenhealth.org is the site of a non-
profit for healthcare entities committed
to sustainable, eco-friendly practices.
BuildingGreen.com said it “absorbed”
the Green Guide for health care &
healthcare clean energy exchange.
Green construction’s Future is Golden continued from page 8
McGraw-hill’s research showed a relatively low use of leed in retail, religious, hotel, and recreational construction, and a high incidence of the green spec in dormitories, offices, and healthcare facilities. the trend is especially dramatic when graphed by project dollar value.
estimates for 2013, summarized in the table above, show as much as $200 billion in new construction and $240 billion in renovation will comprise the green construction market.
the bigger the construction project in 2007, the more likely it was to include leadership in energy & environmental design (leed) in its specifications. leed comes from the u.s. Green Building council.
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86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 081.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
Housing Is Becoming More Affordable…
Sources: BEA, Census, PPR, Realtors
Price-income ratio (R)
Price-rentratio (L)
Number of vacant homes for sale, ths, Source: Census
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Inventories Are Peaking…
Housing supply 925,000000,055elgniS000,003itluM
Manufactured 75,000
Housing demand 1,425,000Households 900,000Obsolescence 400,000Second homes 125,000
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
rebmetpeStsuguAyluJ
Source: Bankrate.com
30-year fixed mortgage rate
Nationalization Means Lower Rates…
Savers’ Blog The Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy arm of the U.S. Dept. of Energy has an Energy Savers blog—useful for tips, perhaps. See eere.typepad.com/energysavers
Green Construction
Book ClubA deal between the US
Green Building Council and
Island Press has led to the
GreenWorks book club, at
www.islandpress.com/usgbc.
It will “offer the newest and
best books on green building
at discounted prices.
Architects Walking Greenwww.aia.org/walkthewalk is the home of a site from the American Institute of Architects, a group that wants to take the lead in things green. At the time of our late-fall visit, there were 12 “webisodes” up in the site’s video
series.
Early Housing Pessimist Sees Sunshine!
If there was big news at the fall forecast con-
ference held oct. 22, 2008, by the national
Association of Home Builders, it was not the
flood tide of gloomy data. Instead, it was the
volte-face by Mark Zandi, chief economist of
Moody’s Economy.com.
Zandi has been the pessimist at these nAHB
conferences. He foresaw, years ago, some of
what has happened in the housing market—
although perhaps he didn’t predict the decline’s
full extent and drama.
Here’s the good news: Zandi now says there
are at least three reasons to believe that hous-
ing’s decline will bottom during the current year,
with a recovery likely to follow. Asked to name
the date of recovery, he was astonishingly pre-
cise: Aug. 3, 2010! The slides below, from his
presentation, include captions summarizing his
positive remarks. i
Inventories of vacant for-sale houses were 1.0 million higher than normal as of september, zandi said. he projected this excess would be worked off at a rate of 500,000 homes a year in 2009 and 2010.
With no-doc/no-interest loans and arMs with steep adjustments likely to go out of style, zandi indicated that another key to a housing recovery was low 30-year fixed mortgage rates. We’re likely to get that, he said, with the u.s. government having “nationalized” Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
affordability is one key to a housing recovery, zandi noted. he provided two indicators (shown above). Judging by the “price-income ratio,” housing is already affordable, he said in october. the price-rent ratio, on the other hand, has a ways to go.
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Global Green ConstructionMcGraw-Hill Construction Analytics
says:53% of construction industry respondents globally expect to be
dedicated to green on over 60% of their projects in the next five years. Additionally:
32% of these professionals say green already makes up 10% of domestic construction output.
Our Green Issue—OnlineFind 90+ pages of Power
Outlet’s GREEN issue—V8N3—
online, with all the
articles available (free, no registration) in PDF. www.rexelusa.com/PastIssues.aspx
Schools Get GreenerAlmost 1,000 schools have earned one of the LEED certifications or are seeking to, according to GreenBiz.com. Compared to traditional school buildings, LEED-certified schools cut energy use by 33%, water use by 32%, and solid waste production by 74%.
Potential New green Jobs 2038—U.S. Total2018 2028 2038
renewable Power Generation 407,200 802,000 1,236,800
MR-5, Wedge, Festoon, Bi-Pin, GU-24 and all others not listed in
categories A or B.
Lamp Efficiency Requirement
Energy Star Program Requirements for
Compact Fluorescent Lamps, version 3.0
Energy Star Program Requirements for Residential Light
Fixtures, version 4.0
none (Incandescent/ Halogen)
Lamps Shipped Inside The Product Packaging By The Manufacturer?
Yes, Energy Star Listed Compact Fluorescent Yes Yes
Quantity of Lamps Enough To Fill All Sockets
Enough To Fill All Sockets Enough To Fill All Sockets
Maximum Total Wattage of Lamps Shipped With Products no Limit no Limit 190 Watts
190 Watt Fuse, Circuit Breaker, or Power Limiter Built Into The Product
no no Yes
Effective Date 1/1/2007 1/1/2007 1/1/2009
At its annual meeting in September 2008,
an American Lighting Association staffer
noted that federal ceiling fan regulations
that were about to go into effect (1/1/09) were
confusing. Information from various suppliers,
the ALA said, was confusing at the least and, in
places, perhaps even contradictory.
As a result, ALA issued a three-page PDF, which
included the table below. To see the original, use
this web address: snipurl.com/4ru0z. i
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Green Radio Would you like to listen to green stuff as well as read about it? GreenBiz.com offers podcasts. There were many online as of mid-fall—including four posted in each of September and October. www.greenbiz.com/current/podcasts
$56 Billion Saved
Research at the U. of California
at Berkeley found California
energy-efficiency laws reduced
per-capita energy needs in the
state to 40% below the national
average—saving households
$56 billion in the years 1972-2006.
www.next10.org/research_eeijc.html
64 Green MBAsA nonprofit called Net Impact has published a new edition of Business As Unusual. It’s a 222-page guide, downloadable (free) as a PDF. According to GreenBiz.com, the document profiles 64 schools that offer MBAs with a green tint. www.snipurl.com/qygst
Total Construction Starts (billions of dollars)2005a 2006a 2007a 2008e 2009F
total construction $670.2 $689.6 $634.4 $555.5 $514.6
Outside Of Housing, It’s Not That Bad!
McGraw-Hill Construction didn’t see this coming. MHC’s official forecast for 2008 was for the dollar value of new construc-
tion starts to decline by 2%. In october, however, at its “outlook ‘09” conference, the company pro-vided a new look (based at least in part on what’s happened)—that 2008 would be down 12%.
However, take a look at the table below. Let’s do a little math:
• Total construction, 2005-2009: Down from 2005’s peak by $155.6 billion.
• Residential, 2005-2009: Down $216 billion.
• The rest of the market, 2005-2009: The forecast for 2009 shows the rest of construction will be UP $60.4 billion on 2005, the best year the construction industry has had on record.
So McGraw-Hill’s forecast is for a 7% decline in 2009. But if you ignore residential and compare the ’09 forecast with 2005—it’s a 9% gain! i
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