IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IAEA’s Programme on Advanced
Energy Planning and Economic
Studies
David Shropshire, Section Head
IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section (PESS)
Technical Meeting on Technology Assessment for SMRs
Chengdu, China, 2-4 Sept. 2013
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Objective: Help Member States build the
capability to perform energy assessments
• Develop sustainable energy strategies.
• Identify the potential contribution of different
technologies, including nuclear power, in meeting
future energy needs.
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Capacity Building for
energy assessment
Information
Dissemination
Analytical Tools
and Training
Technical Assistance for
National Energy Studies
Capacity building has three vectors
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Capacity building can be customized to
meet Member State needs
• Capacity Building for energy and nuclear power
planning at Regional and Sub-regional levels
• (e.g., ECOWAS).
• Support to “new comers” for conducting Pre-
feasibility and Feasibility studies for introducing
nuclear power.
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PESS Capacity Building is “Hands-On”
Currently 40 Active TC Projects in 34 Countries 02 September 2013
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Capacity Building in the Classroom
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eTraining (Distance Learning)
Video Conferences On-Line Tutor
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Distance Learning
OLADE
IAEA
ANENT
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PESS continues to advance new eLearning tools
In 2012, more than 200 people (over 30% of those
trained) were trained using eLearning. 02 September 2013 9
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PESS has developed a full suite of analytic tools
for Energy Assessment
MAED
WASP
MESSAGE
FINPLAN
SIMPACTS
Energy Demand
Energy Mix
Finance
Expansion Plans
Health &
Environmental Impacts
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Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED)
INPUT
• Energy sector data (energy balance)
• Scenario assumptions
• Socio-economic
• Technological
• Substitutable energy uses
• Process efficiencies
• Hourly load characteristics
MAED
OUTPUT
• Useful or final
energy demand by
sector/fuel
• Electricity demand
• Degree of
electrification
• Hourly electric load
• Load duration
curves
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Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives
and their General Environmental impacts
OUTPUT
MESSAGE
INPUT
• Energy system
structure (including
vintage of plant and
equipment)
• Base year energy
flows and prices
• Energy demand
projections (MAED)
• Technology and
resource options &
their techno-economic
performance profiles
• Technical and
policy constraints
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
TW
h
biomass
geoth
hydro
nuclear
gas
diesel
fuel oil
coal
• Primary and final energy mix
• Emissions and waste
streams
• Health and environmental
impacts (externalities)
• Resource use
• Land use
• Import dependence
• Investment requirements
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• Load forecast
• Existing system
• Candidates
• Constraints:
• Reliability
• Implementation
• Fuel
• Generation
• Emissions
INPUT
WASP
OUTPUT
• Build schedule
• Generation
• Costs
• Fuel consumption
• Emissions
Wien Automatic System Planning
Package (WASP)
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Financial Analysis of Electric
Sector Expansion Plans
INPUT
• Investment
programme (=
capacity additions) &
operating expenses
• Economic and fiscal parameters (inflation, escalation, exchange rates, taxes)
• Financial parameters (credits, bonds…)
FINPLAN
For each year:
• Cash flows
• Balance Sheet,
Statement of Sources,
Applications of Funds
• Financial Ratios:
- Working Capital Ratio
- Leverage ratio
- Debt Repayment Ratio
- Global Ratio
OUTPUT
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Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity
Generation
OUTPUT
Case 1 (minimal results):
• uniform world model (UWM)
estimate for total exposure
• quantification of health
impacts
• monetisation of impacts
Case 2 (more output):
• estimates 1 adjusted for
effective stack height
(including H+Vexit+Texit)
INPUT
Case 1 (minimum data requirements):
• pollutant emission rates
• regional population density (< 1000 km)
• source location (urban/rural)
Case 2 (some more data):
• stack characteristics
• local population (<50 km)
Case 3 (even more data):
• local metrological data (wind directions & speed)
• population around the source (10x10 km)
Estimate 1
Estimate 2
Estimate 3
Case 3 (even more output):
• Gaussian plume used for
local exposure and impact
estimate
• estimates 2 adjusted for
more accurate pollutant &
receptor distribution
SIMPACTS
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Energy Models Dissemination
128 countries (majority regular users)
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Follow-up Expert Support
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National Studies
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Regional /Sub-regional Studies
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National Studies
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IAEA Tools and Methodologies for Energy System
Planning and Nuclear Energy System Assessments
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Energy Economics Environmental (3E) Analysis
• Climate change, sustainable energy: NE’s role in Post-
2015 Framework -SDGs & -Kyoto Climate Change regime.
• Coordinated Research Projects on: i) climate impacts on
energy; and ii) financing NE investments.
• Economic and social impacts of NE: development and
testing.
• (New) Role of NE in energy system integration: transport,
load shifts, smart grids, energy storage, as a potential
collaboration with NE-NP (LOADCAPS).
• (New) Multi-criteria comparative assessments: NE versus
shale gas (fraking); CO2 capture and disposal; and
renewables.
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IAEA also supports Socio-economic Development,
Climate Protection and Energy Security
Highlighted Publications
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Finally, Investigate new roles and markets for new
flexible nuclear energy systems
• SMRs in the energy mix can enhance the
penetration from Renewable Energy in the
energy mix;
• Nuclear Cogeneration (heat and power);
• Hybrid Energy Systems.
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Thank you 02 September 2013 25
