37
Connect with Amplify #amplifyfest or www.amplifyeffect.com.au Sponsored by:
| Date post: | 18-Dec-2014 |
| Category: |
Business |
| Upload: | amplifyfest |
| View: | 643 times |
| Download: | 0 times |
Connect with Amplify #amplifyfest or www.amplifyeffect.com.au
Sponsored by:
Ian Dunlop 2011
Looking beyond the Carbon “Tax”- the emergency transition to global sustainability
AMP Amplify Festival
Sydney, 6th June 2011
Ian T. DunlopDirector Australia 21
Member, Club of RomeChairman, Safe Climate Australia
Deputy Convenor, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil
2
Ian Dunlop 2011
World Population- a unique point in history -
Source: J.E.Cohen, Columbia University, New York, 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000
Year
Pop
ula
tion
- b
illi
on
Today
Where to ?
BC AD3
1945 – An Empty World
A Full World?
Ian Dunlop 2011
World Ecological Footprint- humanity today needs 1.5 planets to survive-
Source: GFN, WWF, ZSL
4
Ian Dunlop 2011
Everything Connects ---- !
Water
Peak Oil
Climate ChangeAll Symptoms of an Unsustainable
World
- and all inextricably
linked
Food
FinancialInstability 5
- but we are not joining the dots
Ian Dunlop 2011
6
Energy
Ian Dunlop 2011
Cheap Energy- has been the basis for our prosperity
7
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Oil - is fundamentally changing energy supply
Peak
50% still to be produced
Pro
duct
ion m
b/d
8
At the peak, production is limited by reservoir characteristics, not by price
Ian Dunlop 2011
The Growing GapTHE GROWING GAP
Regular Conventional Oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gb
/a
Past Discovery
Future Discovery
Production
Revisions backdated & rounded with 3yr moving average Campbell, 2008
Source: Colin Campbell 2008
9
Ian Dunlop 2011
World Energy Outlook 2010- acknowledging the Peak is near, or here!
10
Source: World Energy Outlook 2010, International Energy Agency
4 Saudi Arabia’s are required by 2035 to just maintain current supply – highly unlikely!
Ian Dunlop 2011
11
Global Warming
Ian Dunlop 2011
This is a graphical interpretation by David Spratt, Melbourne Climate Action Centre, of aspects of recent paleoclimate research by Hansen et al, available in draft form at:
http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1140http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110514_PaleoAndImbalance.pdfVersion 1.3 of 3 June 2011
Eocene peak
Planetary temperature over the last 65 million years…Lessons for today… and tomorrow.
Ian Dunlop 2011
Antarctic glaciation ~ 34 million years ago…
Eocene peak
Around 34 million years ago, glaciation of Antarctica as temperature drops from
Eocene peak.
Ian Dunlop 2011
Around ~4.5 million years ago, northern hemisphere glaciation.Associated with the rise of the Panama Cordillera which isolates the
Pacific from the Atlantic oceans and leads to intra-oceanic circulation (Gyres) which introduces warm currents and moisture to the North
Atlantic – resulting in increased snow fall and formation of ice in Greenland, Laurentia and Fennoscandia.
Northern hemisphere glaciation ~ 4.5 million years ago…
Eocene peak
Ian Dunlop 2011
The last million years…Climate swings
between ice ages and warm
inter-glacial periods over last million years.CO2 between 180 and 300 parts per million.
Carbon dioxide and methane
over last 500,000 years
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900AD
The last 10,000 years – the Holocene
Peak Holocene
temp.
Holocene: after the last ice age, relatively stable temperatures (+/–0.5C) and sea-levels over last
10,000 years – the period of human
civilisation
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene
Today temperature rises above the Holocene maximum
2010
CO2 level today (2011) is 391ppm but “thermal inertia” (delay as ocean mass warm)
means temperature will increase further.Temperatures have risen ~0.83C since 1900
and are now ~0.6C over peak Holocene.
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases
2 degrees – goodbye to Greenland ice sheet…
+2C
When climate system reaches equilibrium,
present level of CO2 will produce >2C of warming
with feedbacks…
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases
+2C
… which is sufficient for large parts of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to be lost, leading to at least a 6-7 metre sea-level rise over time
“Goals to limit human-made warming to 2°C.. are not sufficient – they are prescriptions for disaster” — Dr James Hansen
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases4C of warming
4 degrees – goodbye, goodbye …
Best present emission reduction commitments by all governments (if
implemented) will still lead to 4 degrees of warming by 2100…
+4C
Ian Dunlop 2011
Peak Holocene: over last 10,000 years up 1900ADGlobal average temperature now ~0.6C above peak Holocene2C of warming: consequence of current level of greenhouse gases4C of warming
+4C
…and likely loss overtime of all ice sheets. No ice sheets on planet = 70 metre sea-
level rise over time…
… amongst many devastating impacts. Read more about 4 degrees hotter at http://www.climateactioncentre.org/resources
Ian Dunlop 2011
Arctic Sea Ice Volume - accelerating melt
Source: Neven et al, PIOMAS, University of Washington 2011
22
Sea Ice VolumeKm3
Years 1979 – 2010 actuals
Months- actual volume
Months-forecastquadratic trend
Ian Dunlop 2011
Potential Global Tipping Points
23
Source: Schellnhuber, after Lenton et al, PNAS, 2008
Ian Dunlop 2011
Time to face reality- risks are escalating fast
Human carbon emissions accelerating Rapid summer melt of Arctic sea ice Decline in natural carbon sinks Tipping point for ice sheet loss & glaciers at lower
temperatures than expected Large increase in projected sea level rise Increased ocean acidification Initial indications of Arctic permafrost & seabed methane
hydrate (clathrate) emissions
24
Ian Dunlop 2011
Australia – World Emissions Leader
25
Ind
ivid
ual C
arb
on
Em
issio
ns 2
00
5
Source: World Development Report 2010, World Bank
Ian Dunlop 2011
Climate & Energy are Inextricably Linked- global carbon budget to avoid dangerous climate change
75% chance of staying below 20C
50% chance of staying below 20C
From 2010 onwards, we can only afford to burn 40 – 30% respectively of existing fossil fuel reserves to have:
So why are we continuing to explore for fossil fuels?
Source: Meinhausen et al, Greenhouse-gas emission targets, Nature, April 200926
Ian Dunlop 2011
27
The Way Forward
Our Great Opportunity - for our current way-of-life is unsustainable -
Ian Dunlop 2011
Honesty about the challenge-it is far greater than we are being told
Emission reductions of: 50% by 2020, not 5% 100% by 2050, not 60% and re-absorption of some carbon from the atmosphere emissions must peak within 5 years, then drop rapidly
Take Peak Oil seriously and prepare
28
Ian Dunlop 2011
Solutions- global warming
Early introduction of: Carbon pricing, leading to clean emissions trading
without escape clauses and with minimal compensation revenue recycling to community and low-carbon innovation
Complementary measures to accelerate innovation Personal carbon trading
Remove fossil-fuel subsidies Major support for biosequestration, soil carbon,reforestation Continued objective research into Carbon Capture & Storage(CCS)
But not as the “silver bullet”
Retain our options – no more high-carbon projects Export or domestic Unless CCS in place – “carbon-ready” is a nonsense
Stringent vehicle & aircraft emission standards
29
Ian Dunlop 2011
Solutions- energy
Energy efficiency & conservation Full range of renewables Serious consideration of new-generation nuclear Careful development of:
biofuels, avoiding food conflict gas-to-liquids (possibly), coal-to-liquids (unlikely)
Gas - as a transition fuel only but coal seam gas and shale gas may be environmentally unacceptable
Fuel cells Prepare contingency oil allocation system
30
Ian Dunlop 2011
Solutions- infrastructure
Urban re-design using high-density sustainability principles, integrated with efficient public transport De-centralisation of work centres
Rail becomes major transport mode for high-speed passengers and freight
Electricity from clean energy becomes dominant energy supply Halt to freeway and airport construction Air travel will reduce
unless quality biofuels emerge
Localised food production Major IT innovation to reduce ecological footprint
built around high speed broadband
Enhanced resource productivity zero-waste design with waste becoming a major resource
31
Ian Dunlop 2011
Solutions- Risk & Resilience
GrowthGrowthSystemicBreakdown
Re-organisation
Re-birth
Over-extendedOver-extendedGrowthGrowth
CatastrophicCatastrophicBreakdownBreakdown
CollapseCollapseSource: Resilience Alliance, Thomas Homer-DixonSource: Resilience Alliance, Thomas Homer-Dixon
32
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends on him not understanding it”Upton Sinclair
Ian Dunlop 2011
Solutions- institutional
Mobilisation to establish sustainable, resilient societies conventional economic growth is untenable
Re-defining success based on long-term sustainability, not maximising consumption
Re-designing markets based on enhancing the “Commons”, not short-term profit maximisation
New forms of community involvement & democratic structure essential, given the extent of change required
Developed / developing world cooperation new paradigm built on climate / energy solutions
Business, governance and taxation models re-structured incentives re-focused
Statesmanship recognising that what was politically impossible will become politically inevitable
Community awareness & commitment
33
Ian Dunlop 2011
This is triggering the greatest innovation wave in history
- but technology alone is not sufficient !
Source: The Natural Edge Project
34
Ian Dunlop 2011
Values must also change
Population
Time
Values in 20th C•Quantity•Economy•Growth•Consumption•Materialism•Competition•Selfism•Nationalism•Short-term•Chains
Values in 21st C•Quality•Environment•Sustainability•De-materialisation•Self-restraint•Cooperation•Mutualism•Globalism•Long-term•Loops
Ian Dunlop 2011
Existing political & corporate processes will not deliver: either in time, or in substance
A circuit-breaker is required to move: from incrementalism to rapid transformation
political & corporate mindsets beyond their comfort zone
We have to move to an emergency war-footing programme, akin to: Marshall Plan for re-construction of Europe post-WW2 Apollo Project Mobilisation of US,UK,German economies pre-WW2 21C version of the Snowy Hydro scheme
but much bigger !
Rapid change can occur with the right incentive: we now have that incentive
36
Our Great Opportunity- but it requires a radically different approach
Ian Dunlop 2011
“Australia’s advantages as a low-cost supplier of energy and raw materials are likely to be even greater after a successful transition to a low-carbon economy than they are in a world in which fossil fuels dominate energy supply”.
Ross Garnaut
Garnaut Climate Change ReviewMay 2011
Thank you
Two Questions
37
“In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, whilst the rest find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world which no longer
exists”Eric Hoffman
Will we learn in time ?
Will we seize the opportunity ?
