Theme of the Day: Comparison of Croatian Tourism Companies by Multiples Bond, Money and Currency Markets: Croatian 9Y EUR Spread Continues to Tighten Despite the ECB Taper Tantrum Croatian Equity Market: ZABA and PBZ Deliver Better Performance Regional Equity Market: Romgaz Invests in the Construction of a New Thermal Plant Global Equity Market: Fed Holds Rates Steady Technical Perspective - Region: RIVPRA ZA - Downward trend Technical Perspective - Global: FTSE100 - Support @ 6763 IC Daily Highlights •[CROATIA] Valamar Riviera's hotels won World Luxury Hotel Awards •[SLOVENIA] Merger of 4 insurance companies from Sava Re Group formally completed •[SLOVENIA] A.M. Best credit rating agency upgraded ratings of Zavarovalnica Triglav - financial strength rating up from “A–” to “A”, issuer credit rating up from “a–” to “a” •[ROMANIA] Romgaz has concluded a contract worth EUR 268.8m with the consortium for the construction of a new thermal power plant •[ROMANIA] Jan-Sep 2016 tourist overnight stays and arrivals increased by 8.9% and 11.0% respectively •[ROMANIA] Industrial production prices down by 1.5% YoY in Sep 2016 •[SERBIA] NIS' 9M 2016 sales revenues down by 20.6% to RSD 120.9bn, net profit fell by 29.8% to RSD 7.7bn •[SERBIA] Aerodrom Nikola Tesla's 9M 2016 sales up 5% to EUR 52.8m, net profit up 13% to EUR 19m, the management also announced interim cash dividend for November •[BULGARIA] Merger of Albena Invest Holding into Albena entered in the Commercial Register yesterday IC Daily Newsflash InterCapital Contacts Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures IC MARKET ESPRESSO InterCapital Research 03 November 2016 Quote of the Day: “The market, like the Lord helps those who help themselves. But unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. ” Warren Buffet Ivan Dražetić Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 888 E-mail: [email protected]Kristina Pukšec Head of Fixed Income and Money Market Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854 E-mail: [email protected]IC.trader InterCapital.hr 1 Đivo Pulitika Analyst Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 867 E-mail: [email protected]Croatia I Slovenia I Romania I Bulgaria I Serbia 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 4-Nov-15 4-Feb-16 4-May-16 4-Aug-16 CRO Index SBITOP Index BELEX15 Index BET Index SOFIX Index Source: Bloomberg Regional indices TTM Date Announcement 3-Nov-16 BRD - 9M 2016 results 9-Nov-16 OMV Petrom - 9M 2016 results 11-Nov-16 GRVG - 9M 2016 results 11-Nov-16 Transelectrica - 9M 2016 results 11-Nov-16 Romgaz - 9M 2016 results 14-Nov-16 Transgaz - 9M 2016 results 14-Nov-16 Banca Transilvania - 9M 2016 results 14-Nov-16 LJSE - new working hours 15-Nov-16 Fondul Propr. - 9M 2016 results 15-Nov-16 Nuclearel. - 9M 2016 results Upcoming Announcements Company Investment Thesis VALAMAR RIVIERA One of the largest hospitality groups Favourable accommodation positioning Strong growth potential PETROL GROUP Stable cash flow High level of debt Strong retail player ADRIS GROUP Strategic shift Strong cash position Growth potential in insurance FONDUL PROPR. Managed by Franklin Templeton Significant discount to NAV Possible privatizations of portfolio companies Top Regional Investment Stories Margareta Maresić Junior Analyst Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 857 E-mail: [email protected]Renata Čempuh Head of Front Office Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 890 E-mail: [email protected]Danijel Delač Head of Brokerage Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 894 E-mail: [email protected]Filip Majić Broker Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 896 E-mail: [email protected]Marin Onorato Money Market and Fixed Income, Dealer Phone: + 385 (0)1 4343 180 E-mail: [email protected]Marcel Dimač Junior Analyst Phone: + 385 (0)1 4825 858 E-mail: [email protected]
Transcript
Theme of the Day:
Comparison of Croatian Tourism Companies by MultiplesBond, Money and Currency Markets:
Croatian 9Y EUR Spread Continues to Tighten Despite the ECB Taper TantrumCroatian Equity Market:
ZABA and PBZ Deliver Better PerformanceRegional Equity Market:
Romgaz Invests in the Construction of a New Thermal PlantGlobal Equity Market:
RIVPRA ZA - Downward trend Technical Perspective - Global:
FTSE100 - Support @ 6763
IC Daily Highlights
•[CROATIA] Valamar Riviera's hotels won World Luxury Hotel Awards•[SLOVENIA] Merger of 4 insurance companies from Sava Re Group formally completed•[SLOVENIA] A.M. Best credit rating agency upgraded ratings of Zavarovalnica Triglav - financial strength rating up from “A–” to “A”, issuer credit rating up from “a–” to “a” •[ROMANIA] Romgaz has concluded a contract worth EUR 268.8m with the consortium for the construction of a new thermal power plant•[ROMANIA] Jan-Sep 2016 tourist overnight stays and arrivals increased by 8.9% and 11.0% respectively•[ROMANIA] Industrial production prices down by 1.5% YoY in Sep 2016•[SERBIA] NIS' 9M 2016 sales revenues down by 20.6% to RSD 120.9bn, net profit fell by 29.8% to RSD 7.7bn•[SERBIA] Aerodrom Nikola Tesla's 9M 2016 sales up 5% to EUR 52.8m, net profit up 13% to EUR 19m, the management also announced interim cash dividend for November•[BULGARIA] Merger of Albena Invest Holding into Albena entered in the Commercial Register yesterday
IC Daily Newsflash
InterCapital Contacts
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures
IC MARKET ESPRESSOInterCapital Research
03 November 2016
Quote of the Day:“The market, like the Lord helps those who help
themselves. But unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. ”
Warren Buffet
Ivan DražetićMoney Market and Fixed Income, DealerPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 888E-mail: [email protected]
Kristina PukšecHead of Fixed Income and Money MarketPhone: + 385 (0)1 4825 854E-mail: [email protected]
Comparison of Croatian Tourism Companies by Multiples
Theme of the Day
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 2 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Croatian tourism companies have released their 9M results and overall showed what was expected by the markets – strong growth in profitabilityand top line backed up by another record season. The third quarter proved to be traditionally the strongest one and thus we decided to observe itseffect through the EV/EBITDA multiple. Our analysis calculated the trailing multiple on the basis on H1 results and 3Q results in order to show theimpact of the released results based upon the same date for the calculation of the equity value.
In line with the expectations of solid growth in the sector Q3 2016 pushed the multiples rather down and as such provided for a solid overview ofhow growth expectations are priced in the financial markets as well as how the announcement of future investments incorporates itself in tradingmultiples.
Arenaturist shows the biggest change as its current EV/EBITDA is about 30% lower when the latest trailing EBITDA result is taken into account.However, such a large change is partly because of different basis in terms of companies under consolidation. Furthermore, before the release of9M results, Valamar Riviera was trading at 11.4x EV/EBITDA which now dropped to 9.6x. Lastly, many of the tourist companies have announcedhefty investments for the years to come which should ultimately add new value to the shareholders. As such it will be interesting to observe howthe markets will price these expectations going forward.
T12M EBITDA (million HRK)
EV/EBITDA on 12M trailing basis ending June and September 2016
Global bond sell-off managed to lift up European yields across the continent in a movethat was subsequently dubbed “ECB taper tantrum”, evoking the 2013 events fromacross the Atlantic. German 10Y briefly touched a YTM of 20bps (compared to July’s -20bps), nevertheless a pickup soon ensued pushing the yield down to the current13.4bps. Quite an interesting move happened on the Bobl too (i. e. German 5Y), which fora day or two moved above the ECB’s deposit rate (-40bps), nevertheless the recovery weare writing about pushed the yield once again below the PSPP threshold. It’s worthmentioning that before the last day of September ECB bought some EUR 255b ofGerman paper with an average weighted maturity of 7.88 years. It’s interesting to notethat in March 2016 (QE’s first anniversary) the average weighted maturity stood justslightly above 7 years, a testament to how the buying power of the Frankfurt-basedinstitution affects the yield curves altogether.
Croatian Eurobonds nevertheless continue to report a reduction in risk premia, a movethat we closely observe on the benchmark CROATIA 2025 EUR. The international bond iscurrently traded at 2.74% YTM (101.90 in clean price) and in spite of visible pricecorrection, it still hard to compare it to a drop in equivalent German bonds. Also, with thecurrent macroeconomic fundamentals, this might be another opportunity to go long onCroatian Eurobonds, i.e. buying on dips might soon be reactivated. The possible sourcesof risk lying ahead are clearly the ECB meeting beginning December, FOMC meeting (theDecember one, i. e. the “big” one) and US presidential election next week. Considering thelatter, if Brexit taught us anything, it’s that bull markets may go forth even with blackswan events taking place (appearing as if nothing had happened). And with Blackrockanalysts claiming that there’s still some 50 trillion USD in cash held by investors, itseems that the markets are just waiting for the risk to be excluded from the riskpremium equation in order to ignite another risk on trend.
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital
Croatian 9Y EUR Spread Continues to Tighten Despite the ECB Taper Tantrum
Bond, money and currency markets
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
InterCapital domestic bond quotes Bloomberg: INKA5 <GO>
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 3
[Slovenia–Triglav Group–ZVTG SV] Confirmation of Triglav's good business performance manifestedwith the latest upgrade of its financial strength rating from A- to A (excellent) and the issuer creditrating from „ a-„ to „a“ with stable medium-term outlook by the rating agency A.M. Best. Hence,Slovenian insurance market leader has been given a competitive status on the financial marketswhich will further improve its business performance.
[Serbia– NIS – NIIS SG] Similar to the other industry peers, NIS's consolidated 9M results indicate adrop in the sales revenues by 15.8% down to RSD 134.1bn. Decreases in the costs of crude oil andgas, as well as the positive net income from exchange rate differences (unlike in the previous year),were not sufficient to prevent EBIT and net income from dropping by 48.5% and 29.8% respectively.More thorough dissemination of NIS's 9M results will be presented in the Company Note.
[Romania– Romgaz – SNG RO] Romgaz signed a EUR 268.8m worth contract with Spanish companyDuro Felguera and Romelectro for the construction of a new thermal power plant. This investmentamounts to 10% of the company’s net turnover for the 2015. The construction is due within the next3 years and its completion will further strengthen Romgaz's position on the electricity supply market
Romgaz Invests in the Construction of a New Thermal Plant
Regional Equity Market
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 4
Since there were no major corporate news yesterday, we have decided to show a brief comparison ofrecently published Q3 2016 results of two major Croatian banks listed on the Zagreb Stock Exchange.Namely, we have compared the key financials of Zagrebacka banka and Privredna banka Zagreb.
In spite of the conversions of CHF denominated loans, ZABA’s net loans staid stable at HRK 83.9bn (-0.5% YTD), while deposits from customers went up by 5.3% to HRK 91.1bn. Net interest revenue wentup by 4.7% to HRK 2.6bn, while the net fees and commissions increased by 6.2% to HRK 959m. Netprofit from trading and other revenues have increased by HRK 341m and eventually amounted toHRK 572m (most of this increase is the result of HRK 135m gain from sale of stake in Visa EuropeLimited). With 7.3% higher operating costs, the group’s posted net profit before impairment andother provisions in the amount of HRK 2.2bn, up by 20.8% YoY. Impairment and other provisionsamounted to HRK 529 million and they have decreased by HRK 1,871 million, mainly due to Swissfranc loans conversion expense in the previous year. Therefore the bottom line turned out positiveamounting to HRK 1.4bn.
In the first nine months of 2016 PBZ recorded a 4.2% higher net interest revenue of HRK 1.9bn, whilenet fees and commissions went up by 4.6% to HRK 944m compared to the same period last year.With costs down by 0.4% YoY, net profit before value adjustments and reservations for losses endedat HRK 1.8bn (+22.9% YoY). The group managed to decrease impairments and reservations by 81.3%YoY to HRK 265m. Altogether, the period ended with net profit reaching HRK 1.2bn. From the balancesheet perspective, PBZ posted flattish loans to customers of roughly HRK 51.5bn compared to YE. Inthe meantime, deposits went up by 3.5% to HRK 60.8bn.
ZABA and PBZ Deliver Better Performance
Croatian Equity Market
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
4-Nov-15 4-Feb-16 4-May-16 4-Aug-16
SBITOP Index
Source: Bloomberg
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
4-Nov-15 4-Feb-16 4-May-16 4-Aug-16
CRO Index
CRO10 Index
CROPLUS Index
Source: Bloomberg
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
4-Nov-15 4-Feb-16 4-May-16 4-Aug-16
BELEX15 Index
BELEXLIN Index
Source: Bloomberg
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
4-Nov-15 4-Feb-16 4-May-16 4-Aug-16
BET Index
BET-BK Index
Source: Bloomberg
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
4-Nov-15 4-Feb-16 4-May-16 4-Aug-16
SOFIX Index
BGBX40 Index
Source: Bloomberg
Index fundamentals
Daily market snapshot
Banca Transilvania 2,10 Metalac 4,2% Aerodrom Nikola Tesla -5,32%
Ericsson Nikola Tesla 0,30 Chimimport 0,2% Varteks -2,20%
Volume (EURm) Winners Laggards
Volume: EUR 6.71m
Volume: EUR 0.48m
Volume: EUR 1.15m
Volume: EUR 2.12m
Volume: EUR 0.34m
* ATPLRA ZA and ADRSPA ZA are excluded from CROBEX multiples and ratios due to large one-off event / Market snapshot includes only main index components
U.S. equities closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept interest ratesunchanged, while worries surrounding the presidential election weighed on investorsentiment.
With financial markets anticipating a rate hike before the end of the year, the FederalReserve held interest rates steady again while continuing to acknowledge that the casefor a move is getting stronger. Federal Open Market Committee officials, however, madeno direct nod to a coming rate increase at the December meeting, a move that themarket is strongly anticipating. In fact, the dovish FOMC majority gained a vote.
According to investment managers, there's no surprises here. This meeting was aboutsetting the mood music ahead of the December meeting. All the signs now point to ahike in December. The labour market is doing well, inflation is creeping up and growth isgood.
Fed Holds Rates Steady
Global Equity Market
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 5
Today we are looking @ daily RIVPRA graph. It continues to move downwards andbreached support that was provided by SMAVG50. Short term key support providespsychological level @ 30. First resistance provides low from 28/09/2016 @ 33,7. RSI isin downward trend.
RIVPRA ZA - Downward trend (daily chart)
Technical Perspective - Region
Today we are looking @ daily FTSE100 index. After it tested resistance that is provided byhigh from 2015 @ 7122, it moves downwards and breached psychological level @ 7000and now is testing support that provides SMAVG50. First support provides high from06/08/2015 @ 6763 + SMAVG100. RSI is in downward trend and felt below 50 points.
FTSE100 - Support @ 6763 (daily chart)
Technical Perspective - Global
We would be buyers in case red downward trend line on RSI gets
breached.
Trading Suggestion:
We would be sellers in case support @ 6763 gets breached.
Trading Suggestion:
Technical Targets:7122… high 2015
7000… psychological level6955… high 15/08/2016
6900… SMAVG506861… last
6763… high 06/08/20156748… SMAVG100
Technical Targets:37,25… ATH
36,25… high 201633,75… low 28/09/2016
31,92… SMAVG5031,20… last
30,00… psychological level28,79… SMAVG100
IC MARKET ESPRESSO
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 6 IC.traderInterCapital.hr
Important: Please read the references at the end of this report to possible conflicts of interest and disclaimers/disclosures 11
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IC MARKET ESPRESSO
„IC Market Espresso“ is a Recommendation that proposes investment strategy in terms of one or more financial instruments or the Issuer offinancial instruments, including opinions about current or future value and price of these instruments. Market Espresso is published every workday.The first issue was published on 2 January 2008, while the technical analysis of Croatian equities and index was introduced on 1 September 2008.Information in this report is intended for informative purposes only and does not represent the solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments orparticipate in any particular trading strategy.
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