ICES plans 2014 forward

ICES work 2014

• Recurrent TAC advice– Sandeel 28/2– NS main package 30/6– Rays and skates 30/9

• Data limited stocks– DLS categories developed and used in advice since 2012– Establish ‘target categories’ for all stocks – proposal has been developed and communicated in DC-

MAP process– 2013 – develop risk assessment approach to vulnerable by-catch species – productivity

/suceptibility approach• Landing obligation ....• Mixed fisheries ...• Multispecies considerations ....• Overviews - Ecosystem integration ...• Popular advice

– Publication of ‘popular advice’ sheets shortly after main advice– Further development of overview and availability– Feed back and suggestions very welcome!

• ICES work can be followed – On the external webpage http://www.ices.dk/community/Advisory-process/Pages/default.aspx– In details /real time on sharepoint http://groupnet.ices.dk/Workplan/default.aspx

Landing obligation

• Shift to catch-based advice in 2013• Further develop catch based advice –

data and ecosystem effects• Catch data after landing obligation?• Division of work agreed between ICES

and STECF• ICES will develop guidelines for

survival estimation experiments to be delivered in 2014

Mixed fisheries advice options

Options outcomes 2013

Mixed fisheries 2015 (advice in 2014)?

• All stocks exploited at or below FMSY

• = ‘Minimum’ option?

• Dialogue to clarify basis with advice recipients (EU, Norway)

Multispecies considerations NS

Multispecies considerations• Fish eat fish – the natural mortalities and growth of one

population depends on the size of other populations. North Sea – Cod and Saithe most important predators among exploited fish stocks

• Fish populations depend on wider ecosystem regime• All reference points are therefore dependent on other stocks

and the ecosystem state – and natural processes become increasingly important at F is reduced

• FMSY – no single solution in multispecies/ecosystem context– Policy choices need to be made – what to ‘maximise’ ? – Ecosystem state needs to be specified

• FMSY in multispecies context generally higher than those derived from simplistic single-stock approach

• Single stock target biomasses illusionary – Biomass not directly controlled by F, will vary with ecological regime– Biomass will depend on stock sizes of other fish stocks

• Biomass lower precautionary limits

How to further dialogue?• Multispecies considerations presented to stimulate

dialogue and feed back regarding policy preferences and choices

• Reactions from policy makers have revealed that this is politically complex and difficult to handle (at best silence, at worst blaming ICES for making its own choices)

• Reactions from stakeholders have varied from praise through silence to blame

• BUT – nearly no constructive debate, helping all parties to move towards greater clarity about policy preferences

• In 2014:– ICES again to present ‘considerations’ to provide some basis

for debate– Autumn 2014: dialogue meeting (Policy makers,

stakeholders, scientific advisers) regarding MSY in an ecosystem (especially multispecies) context

Overviews in consolidated advice report

See you at MIRAC 2014

16-17 January 2014Copenhagen