ICRA Comments on IIP Nov 2013

8/13/2019 ICRA Comments on IIP Nov 2013

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ICRA Limited P a g e | 1

OVERVIEW

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 2.1% in November 2013 (refer Chart 1 andTable 1) in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, as

compared to the 1.0% de-growth in November 2012, inferior to our expectation of a mild growth (1.5%). Industrial performance in November

2013 was dampened by a sharp 21.5% contraction of consumer durables (1.1% growth in Nov 2012). The other use-based industries

displayed a muted growth in that month, namely intermediate goods (3.3% in Nov 2013; -1.4% in Nov 2012), consumer non-durables (2.5% in

Nov 2013; -1.5% in Nov 2012), basic goods (0.7% in Nov 2013; 1.1% in Nov 2012) and capital goods (0.3% in Nov 2013; -8.5% in Nov 2012).

The pace of industrial contraction deepened in November 2013 from 1.6% in October 2013, in spite of the base effect (-1.0% in Nov 2012;

+8.4% in Oct 2012), pickup in core sector growth (+1.7% in Nov 2013; -0.7% in Oct 2013) and selective uptick in rural demand (double-digit

growth of tractors and two-wheelers). Factors contributing to the weak print for November 2013 include the moderation in growth of

merchandise exports in USD terms (5.9% in Nov 2013; 13.5% in Oct 2013), continuing sector-specific issues (sugar and gems & jewellery), and

sluggish investment activity. Overall, the 1.8% decline in industrial production in October-November 2013 (refer Chart 4) is worrying,

highlighting that the boost to domestic demand following the kharifharvest is uneven and weaker than anticipated.

In terms of the sectoral classification, the industrial performance in November 2013 was dampened by the 3.5% contraction of manufacturing

output, the worst performance since March 2012 (refer Charts 2 and 3). Notably, excluding food products (which includes sugar and

molasses) and furniture manufacturing (which includes gems & jewellery) that were afflicted by sector specific issues, the rest of the

manufacturing sector recorded a contraction of 1.3% in November 2013, somewhat inferior to the level in October 2013 (0.7%).

In contrast, growth of electricity generation improved to 6.3% in November 2013 from 2.4% in November 2012, led by the hydroelectricity

generation (29% in Nov 2013; -17% in Nov 2012) according to data released by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA). However, growth of

thermal electricity generation eased to 3% in November 2013 from 5% in November 2012. Moreover, mining & quarrying output rose by

1.0% in November 2013 as compared to a 5.5% contraction in November 2012, after having contracted for six of the previous seven months.

The pace of contraction of the IIP Index for October 2013 was revised to 1.6% from 1.8%, led by a revision in consumer non-durables (to

+2.2% from +1.8%), intermediate goods (to +2.2% from +1.8%) and basic goods (to -1.4% from -1.6%). Overall, industrial output has

contracted by 0.2% in the first eight months of this fiscal as compared to the 0.9% rise in the corresponding period of 2012-13, led by a

slowdown in core sector growth (to 2.5% from 6.7%).

OUTLOOK:

Provisional data released by the CEA indicates a small improvement in growth of electricity generation in December 2013 as compared to

November 2013, led by thermal electricity generation, which would support industrial growth in the just-concluded month. Additionally, the

pickup in the pace of sugarcane crushing from December 2013 onwards would boost growth of consumer non-durables in the near term.

ICRA RESEARCH SERVICES

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION November 2013

Industrial production contracts by 2.1% in November 2013, following weaker-than-anticipated festive season

consumer demand as well as persisting issues in the sugar and gems & jewelry sectors

JANUARY 2014

Contacts:

Aditi Nayar

+91 124 4545 [email protected]
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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However, the moderation in growth of merchandise exports in USD terms (to 3.5% in Dec 2013 from 5.9% in Nov 2013) and the combined production of passenger

vehicles, commercial vehicles and three- and two-wheelers (to 2.1% in Dec 2013 from 7.8% in Nov 2013; Source: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers or SIAM) as

well as the impact of the continued tight availability of gold on gems & jewellery production would act as a drag on growth in December 2013.

The clearances awarded to various projects by the Cabinet Committee on Investments and the recent pickup in new project announcements is encouraging. However,

the long gestation period of some of these projects as well as the muted private investment sentiments suggest that a pickup in growth of capital goods is not imminent.

Overall, industrial output is likely to display a muted growth in December 2013 as compared to the 0.6% contraction in December 2012.

Table 1: Trend in IIP Growth

Sectoral Use-Based Classification

IIP Mining Manufacturing Electricity Basic Capital Intermediate Durables Non-Durables

Weight 100.00% 14.16% 75.53% 10.32% 45.68% 8.83% 15.69% 8.46% 21.35%

Month

Oct-12 8.4% -0.2% 9.9% 5.5% 4.3% 7.0% 9.6% 16.7% 11.2%

Nov-12 -1.0% -5.5% -0.8% 2.4% 1.1% -8.5% -1.4% 1.1% -1.5%

Oct-13 -1.6% -3.2% -1.8% 1.3% -1.4% 2.4% 2.2% -12.1% 2.2%

Nov-13 -2.1% 1.0% -3.5% 6.3% 0.7% 0.3% 3.3% -21.5% 2.5%

Apr-Nov FY13 0.9% -1.6% 0.9% 4.4% 2.8% -11.3% 1.8% 5.2% 2.5%

Apr-Nov FY14 -0.2% -2.2% -0.6% 5.4% 0.7% -0.1% 2.7% -12.6% 6.3%

Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), ICRA Analysis

Chart 1: Year-on-Year Growth in IIP Chart 2: Year-on-Year Growth in Sectoral Indices

Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

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Mi ni ng Man ufac tu ri ng El ec tr ic it y


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SECTORAL GROWTH

Manufacturing: The contraction of manufacturing output worsened to 3.5% in

November 2013 from the revised 1.8% in y-o-y terms in October 2013, partly

reflecting the easing growth of merchandise exports to 5.9% from 13.5%,

respectively. Overall, the 2.6% decline in manufacturing output in October-

November 2013 as compared to the 4.4% growth in the same months of 2012, is

worrying, highlighting that the pickup in domestic demand following the kharif

harvest is weaker-thananticipated and not broad-based, as well as the

persistence of sector-specific issues for sugar and gems & jewellery.

10 sub-sectors of the manufacturing sector displayed contraction in both October

2013 and November 2013 (refer Tables 2 and3). Although the combined weight of

the sub-sectors witnessing contraction eased to 38.4% in November 2013 from

39.8% in October 2013, the pace of de-growth of these sub-sectors worsened to

13.3% in November 2013 from 9.0% in October 2013.

The pace of contraction of food products and beverages deteriorated to a sharp17% in November 2013 from 1.8% in October 2013. Output of molasses and sugar

contracted by more than 50% in November 2013, following the delays in crushing

of cane in several major States. Additionally, furniture manufacturing contracted

by 19.5% in November 2013, led by a 40% y-o-y decline in output of gems &

jewellery (which accounts for ~60% of this sub-index) on account of the

constrained supply of gold during a month of seasonally high demand. Excluding

food products and furniture manufacturing, the pace of contraction recorded by

the rest of the manufacturing sector worsened slightly to 1.3% in November 2013

from 0.7% in October 2013.

Basic metals, the largest sub-sector of manufacturing, contracted by 2.9% inNovember 2013 similar to the level in October 2013 (3.0%), partly led by the 63%

contraction in HR Sheets (refer Annexure B). This sub-sector has recorded a

sustained de-growth since April 2013. The contraction recorded by fabricated

metal products worsened to 9.0% in November 2013 from 4.7% in October 2013,

displaying a y-o-y decline for fifteenth month in a row. In particular, output of

boilers declined by 47% in y-o-y terms in November 2013. However, the pace of

contraction of motor vehicles, trailers & semi-trailers eased to 10.7% in November

2013 from 13.7% in October 2013.

After contracting by 20-28% since April 2013, the pace of contraction of radio, TV

Table 2: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in November 2013

Source: CSO, ICRA Analysis

Table 3: Sub-Sectors Displaying Contraction in November 2013


Sept 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013

Number of Sub-Sectors 9 10 10

Weight in the IIP Index 29.1% 39.8% 38.4%Combined Growth -8.9% -9.0% -13.3%

Contribution to Growth -4.2% -5.2% -7.6%

Sub-Sectors Weight Growth in

Nov 2013

Comment

Basic Metals 11.3 -2.9%

Contracted

in Oct 2013

Food Products & Beverages 7.3 -17.0%Coke, Refined Petroleum Products &

Nuclear Fuel 6.7 -1.2%

Motor Vehicles, Trailers & Semi-

Trailers 4.1 -10.7%

Fabricated Metal Products, except

Machinery & Equipment 3.1 -9.0%

Furniture; Manufacturing N.E.C. 3.0 -19.5%Radio, TV & Communication

Equipment & Apparatus 1.0 -42.2%

Office, Accounting & Computing

Machinery 0.3 -27.5%Publishing, Printing & Reproduction

of Recorded Media 1.1 -1.7% Expanded in

Oct 2013Medical, Precision & Optical

Instruments, Watches & Clocks 0.6 -10.9%


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& communication equipment & apparatus worsened to 42.2% in November 2013,

led by steeper decline in output of telephone instruments including mobile phones

& accessories (to 44% in Nov 2013 from 23.5% in Oct 2013). Office, accounting &

computing machinery displayed a y-o-y decline of 27.5% in November 2013,

similar to the previous month, partly reflecting the 35% contraction in computers.

Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel contracted by a mild 1.2% in

November 2013 relative to 0.6% in October 2013.

After expanding by a muted 1-4% since April 2013, publishing, printing &

reproduction of recorded media displayed a contraction of 1.7% in November

2013. Moreover, medical, precision & optical instruments, watches & clocks

displayed a y-o-y decline of 10.9% in November 2013 following the healthy 7.6%

expansion in October 2013.

The pace of growth of the five sub-sectors making the maximum contribution to

manufacturing growth (refer Table 4) rose to 14.2% in November 2013 from 11.8%

in October 2013. The pace of growth of chemicals & chemical products increased

significantly to 18.6% in November 2013 from 7.3% in October 2013, led by thestriking 302.3% growth in vitamins and more than 50% growth in antibiotics & its

preparations and ayurvedicmedicaments. Notably, these three items account for

around 30% of chemicals & chemical products.

The pace of expansion of electrical machinery & apparatus halved to 16.1% in

November 2013 from 34.1% in October 2013, led by a slowdown in growth of

rubber insulated cables (albeit to a sharp 61% in Nov 2013 from an initial 143% in

Oct 2013). In contrast, aluminium conductors contracted by 45% in November

2013.

The pace of growth of textiles improved to 6.7% in November 2013 from the sub-

3% rise in the previous two months. Moreover, growth of wearing apparel,

dressing & dyeing of fur increased to 14.5% in November 2013 from 5.2% in

October 2013, boosted by exports. Together these two sub-sectors account for

around 9% of the IIP Index.

The pace of growth of other transport equipment declined to 13.0% in November

2013 from 14.7% in October 2013, despite the high 135% growth of ship building &

repairs.

Table 4: Contribution to the Manufacturing Sector by Sub-Sectors

Sub-Sectors Weight Growth

in Nov

2013

Contribution

to Manuf.

Growth

Chemicals & Chemical Products 10.1 18.6% 1.7%

Electrical Machinery & Apparatus

N.E.C.

2.0 16.1% 0.9%

Textiles 6.2 6.7% 0.4%

Other Transport Equipment 1.8 13.0% 0.4%

Wearing Apparel; Dressing &

Dyeing of Fur

2.8 14.5% 0.3%

Others Displaying Expansion 22.8 14.2% 3.8%

Others Displaying Contraction 38.4 -13.3% -7.6%

Manufacturing 75.5 -3.5% -3.5%


Chart 3: Contribution to IIP Growth in November 2013

Source: CSO; ICRA Analysis

Mining, -0.1%Basic, 0.3%

Manufacturing,

-2.8%

Capital, 0.0%

Electricity, 0.6% Intermediate,

0.4%

Durables, -3.3%

Non Durables,

0.4%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%


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Mining & Quarrying: This sector expanded by 1.0% in November 2013 following

the revised 3.2% contraction in October 2013. The improved performance largely

reflects the turnaround in coal and crude oil (refer Table 5) as indicated by the

Index of Core Industries. Additionally, the contraction recorded by natural gas

eased to 11.3% in November 2013 from 14.1% in September 2013 and 13.6% in

October 2013.

Mining & quarrying output displayed a sharper decline of 2.2% in the first eight

months of 2013-14, as compared to the 1.6% contraction in the same months of

the previous fiscal. The performance of the mining & quarrying sector remains

weaker than the other sectors of the IIP so far in FY14.

Electricity: The growth of electricity generation improved to 6.3% in November

2013 from 1.3% in October 2013, led by a turnaround in growth of thermal

electricity generation (~4% and -4%, respectively), in line with the trends in

domestic coal production (Source: CEA). The growth of hydro electricity generation

remained robust at 29% in November 2013 (~31% in October 2013), reflecting thehealthy reservoir levels following substantial monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall

in 2013.

Growth of electricity generation has improved to 5.4% in April-November 2013

from 4.4% in the same months in 2012. The performance of this sector continues

to exceed the growth recorded by mining & quarrying and manufacturing so far in

FY14.

Table 5: Growth of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas

Weight 4.379 5.216 1.708

Sep-12 22.2% -1.8% -14.8%

Oct-12 11.6% -0.4% -14.9%

Nov-12 -2.9% 0.7% -15.2%

Sep-13 12.5% 0.6% -14.1%

Oct-13 -3.9% -0.8% -13.6%

Nov-13 2.3% 1.1% -11.3%

Source: Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry,

Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA Analysis

Chart 4: Year-on-Year Growth in 2013-14


-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Oct-Nov FY13 Oct-Nov FY14


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USE-BASED CLASSIFICATION

Basic Goods:The performance of basic goods improved in sequential months, with

a 0.7% growth in November 2013 following the revised 1.4% contraction in

October 2013 (refer Chart 5andAnnexure A). This primarily reflects the pickup in

growth of key components of the core sector such as electricity generation, coal

and cement (refer Annexure C). Nevertheless, growth of basic goods in November

2013 was dragged downward by a sharp contraction of molasses (61%) and HR

sheets (63%). This sub-index recorded a slower 0.7% growth in April-November

2013, as compared to the 2.8% rise in the same months in 2012.

Capital Goods:Capital goods recorded a marginal 0.3% growth in November 2013

as compared to a revised 2.4% rise in October 2013 (refer Chart 6).

Notwithstanding the sluggish growth of this sub-index, individual components

displayed disparate trends in November 2013. For instance, ship building & repairs

logged a striking 135% growth in that month, which is likely to reflect lumpiness in

order execution. Moreover, rubber insulated cables expanded by a sharp 61% in

November 2013, which may be attributed to completion of ongoing projects aswell as inconsistencies in data reporting. Additionally, output of tractors rose by a

robust 26.8% in November 2013, in line with a pickup in demand after the kharif

harvest. Moreover, plastic machinery displayed a 28% expansion in that month.

In contrast, several items of capital goods such as earth-moving machinery, sugar

machinery, aluminium conductors and boilers contracted by more than 30% in

November 2013, highlighting the weak investment impulses in the economy.

Additionally, output of computers fell by 35% in that month. Moreover, data

released by SIAM indicates that commercial vehicles output declined by 15% in y-

o-y terms in November 2013.

Overall, capital goods output rose by 1.4% in October-November 2013, as

compared to the 1.3% contraction in the same months in 2012.

Intermediate Goods: The pace of growth of intermediate goods output rose to

3.3% in November 2013 from 2.2% in October 2013, even though polyester chips

contracted by a sharp 28% in November 2013. Intermediate goods output rose by

2.7% in April-November 2013, somewhat higher than the 1.8% growth in the same

months in 2012. The continued muted growth of intermediate goods indicates the

weak demand for final goods in the economy.

Chart 5: Growth of Basic Goods


Chart 6: Growth of Capital Goods


-4%

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6%

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2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

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2011-12 2012-13 2013-14


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Consumer Durables: The contraction of consumer durables deepened to 21.5% in

November 2013 from a revised 12.1% in October 2013 (refer Chart 7). In

particular, the pace of contraction of telephone instruments worsened to 45% in

November 2013 from 23.5% in October 2013. Additionally, data released by SIAM

indicates a weaker performance of passenger vehicles and two wheelers in

November 2013 (-6.8% and 13.5%, respectively) as compared to the previous

month (-4.8% and 21.2%, respectively). Moreover, gems & jewellery, which

accounts for over 20% of the consumer durables sub-index, contracted by 40% inNovember 2013 similar to the trend in the previous month reflecting the limited

availability of gold in the domestic market. However, wood furniture and air

conditioners displayed a robust growth in excess of 30% in November 2013.

As compared to the 8.8% rise in October-November 2012, output of consumer

durables contracted by a worrying 16.5% in the same months of 2013, acting as a

drag on the industrial performance and highlighting the weak and uneven

consumer demand during the festive season.

Consumer Non-Durables:The pace of growth of consumer non-durables stood at2.5% in November 2013 (refer Chart 8), similar to revised 2.2% in October 2013.

Items such as vitamins, antibiotics and ayurvedic medicaments, accounting for

nearly 14% of the consumer non-durables index, expanded by more than 50% in

November 2013. In contrast, sugar output, which accounts for over 7% of the

consumer non-durables sub-index, recorded a sharp contraction for the second

month in a row. Partly as a consequence of the latter, the pace of growth of

consumer non-durables eased to 2.3% in October-November 2013 from 8.1% in

Q2FY14. The pickup in the pace of crushing from December 2013 onwards would

boost growth of consumer non-durables in the near term.

Consumer non-durables output grew by a moderate 6.3% in April-November 2013

as compared to the 2.5% rise in April-November 2012. This stands out as the best

performance amongst the use-based categories, in contrast with the performance

of consumer durables.

Chart 7: Growth of Consumer Durables


Chart 8: Growth of Consumer Non-Durables


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2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

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2011-12 2012-13 2013-14


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ANNEXURE A:

Chart 9: Year-on-Year Growth in Mining & Quarrying Chart 10: Year-on-Year Growth in Manufacturing


Chart 11: Year-on-Year Growth in Electricity Chart 12: Year-on-Year Growth in Basic Goods


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Chart 13: Year-on-Year Growth in Capital Goods Chart 14: Year-on-Year Growth in Intermediate Goods


Chart 15: Year-on-Year Growth in Consumer Durables Chart 16: Year-on-Year Growth in Consumer Non-Durables


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

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ANNEXURE B:

Items Weight Growth in

Nov 2013

Manufacturing Sub-Sector Use-Based Classification

Ship Building & Repairs 0.10 134.8% Other Transport Equipment Capital Goods

Cable, Rubber Insulated 0.12 61.2% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods

Plastic Machinery incl. Moulding Machinery 0.26 28.4% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C Capital Goods

Tractors 0.38 26.8% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C Capital Goods

Sugar Machinery 0.11 -31.6% Machinery &Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods

Computers 0.23 -35.3% Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery Capital Goods

Earth Moving Machinery 0.23 -44.1% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Capital Goods

Conductor, Aluminium 0.20 -45.4% Electrical Machinery & Apparatus N.E.C. Capital Goods

Boilers 0.40 -47.0% Fabricated Metal Products, except Machinery & Equipment Capital Goods

Molasses 0.11 -61.4% Food Products & Beverages Basic Goods

H R Sheets 0.31 -63.2% Basic Metals Basic Goods

Polyester Chips 0.20 -28.0% Rubber & Plastics Products Intermediate

Wood Furniture 0.24 63.3% Furniture; Manufacturing N.E.C. Consumer Durables

Air Conditioner (Room) 0.29 31.5% Machinery & Equipment N.E.C. Consumer Durables

Gems & Jewellery 1.77 -40.4% Furniture; Manufacturing N.E.C. Consumer Durables

Telephone Instruments incl. Mobile Phones &

Accessories

0.22 -44.6% Radio, TV & Communication Equipment & Apparatus Consumer Durables

Vitamins 0.30 302.3% Chemicals & Chemical Products Consumer Non-Durables

Antibiotics & its Preparations 2.38 58.1% Chemicals & Chemical Products Consumer Non-Durables

Ayurvedic Medicaments 0.27 52.1% Chemicals & Chemical Products Consumer Non-Durables

Sugar (incl. sugar cubes) 1.52 -56.3% Food Products & Beverages Consumer Non-Durables



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ANNEXURE C: Growth in Index of Core Industries

Source Index of Eight Core Industries, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Office of the Economic Advisor; ICRA Analysis

Index of Core

Industries

Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Refinery

Products

Fertilizers Steel Cement Electricity

Weight 37.9% 4.38% 5.2% 1.71% 5.94% 1.25% 6.68% 2.41% 10.32%

Month

Sep-12 8.3% 22.2% -1.8% -14.8% 34.9% 5.7% 1.3% 13.8% 3.9%

Oct-12 7.8% 11.6% -0.4% -14.9% 46.3% 2.0% -4.7% 6.8% 5.6%

Nov-12 5.8% -2.9% 0.7% -15.2% 29.9% 5.0% 7.8% -0.2% 2.5%

Sep-13 8.0% 12.5% 0.6% -14.1% 8.0% 5.3% 6.6% 11.5% 12.6%

Oct-13 -0.7% -3.9% -0.8% -13.6% -4.8% 4.1% 3.5% 1.0% 1.3%

Nov-13 1.7% 2.3% 1.1% -11.3% -5.0% 0.5% 3.9% 4.2% 5.8%

April-Nov 2012 6.7% 7.8% -0.5% -13.1% 29.7% -3.3% 2.2% 7.7% 4.6%

April-Nov 2013 2.5% 1.5% -0.9% -15.6% 2.6% 2.5% 4.3% 4.0% 5.0%


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ICRA Comments on IIP Nov 2013

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