Workshop of IGES/APN Mega-city Project
Policy Integration towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia, 4-5 February, 2003 in Honolulu
Modeling of urban development, Modeling of urban development, energy and environmentenergy and environment
Shinji KANEKOShinji KANEKOIDEC, Hiroshima Univ.IDEC, Hiroshima Univ.
ContentsContentsWhat we have learnt from the project with What we have learnt from the project with special focus on methodology and dataspecial focus on methodology and data�� Data availability/comparabilityData availability/comparability�� Model selection/integrationModel selection/integration
Brief introduction of selected complementary Brief introduction of selected complementary case studiescase studies�� Urban economic growth modelUrban economic growth model�� Energy dependency and indirect CO2 emissionEnergy dependency and indirect CO2 emission�� Spatial analysis of urban transportationSpatial analysis of urban transportation
Objectives of the projectObjectives of the project
To make cityTo make city--wide inventories of major air wide inventories of major air pollutants including CO2 in four megapollutants including CO2 in four mega--cities in Asiacities in AsiaTo generate future projections of those To generate future projections of those pollutants by sector up until 2020pollutants by sector up until 2020To draw policy recommendations for the To draw policy recommendations for the four megafour mega--citiescities
Emissions
MaterialFlow/Stock
Final Energy ConsumptionEnergy Type/Sector•Coal•Oil•Gas•Hydro•Solar•Wind•Nuclear
19902000
20102020
Energy Type
Sect
or
Embodied EnergyConsumption/StockEnergy Type/Sector•Coal•Oil•Gas•Hydro•Solar•Wind•Nuclear
19902000
20102020
Energy Type
Sect
or
CO2 Emission
NOx Emission
SOx Emission
TSP Emission
CO Emission
MP10 Emission
within the city
outside the city
Emissions
Emis
sion
Fac
tors
(Ene
rgy
=>C
O2,
NO
x, SO
x, C
O, T
SP, P
M10
etc
.)
InfrastructureConstruction
Energy ServiceDemand
Waste Heat
Method1
ConsumptionActivities
Macro UrbanEconomic Model
Transportation Sector
Res.Com Sector
WasteManagement
ModelC
onve
rsio
n Fa
ctor
s(M
ater
ial=
>Em
bodi
ed E
nerg
y)
Technology
Lifestyle
I/O AnalysisLCA AnalysisMFA Analysis
Direct
Indirect
Energy Consumption
Industrial Sector
Method2
Method3
Method4
Initial framework of modeling
Challenges of the projectChallenges of the projectInternational comparative study at city levelInternational comparative study at city level�� Development of comparable dataset for the four citiesDevelopment of comparable dataset for the four cities�� Effective collaboration in interdisciplinary and Effective collaboration in interdisciplinary and
international joint researchinternational joint research
Modeling techniqueModeling technique�� Integration of sector modelsIntegration of sector models�� Integration of topIntegration of top--down and bottomdown and bottom--up approachesup approaches
KKey indicator groups and data ey indicator groups and data requirementrequirement
Macro socioeconomic dataMacro socioeconomic data�� GRP by major sectorGRP by major sector�� Demographic dataDemographic data�� Labors by sectorLabors by sector
Energy balance dataEnergy balance data�� Sector (Primary energy supply, transformation, final consumptionSector (Primary energy supply, transformation, final consumption))�� Energy type (Coal and coal products, Oil and oil products, LNG, Energy type (Coal and coal products, Oil and oil products, LNG, Town gas (City gas), Town gas (City gas),
Electricity, Heat)Electricity, Heat)
SectoralSectoral data/ transportation, residential, commercial and waste managemdata/ transportation, residential, commercial and waste managementent�� Classification of registered vehicleClassification of registered vehicle�� Travel demand by type of vehicleTravel demand by type of vehicle�� Floor space by type of buildingFloor space by type of building�� Appliances by energy serviceAppliances by energy service�� Energy efficiencies by applianceEnergy efficiencies by appliance�� Waste generation and compositionWaste generation and composition�� Waste management facilities profilesWaste management facilities profiles
Emission factorEmission factor�� CO2CO2�� Air pollutants (CO, HC, Air pollutants (CO, HC, NOxNOx, PM) from transportation sector, PM) from transportation sector
Definition of cityDefinition of city
Beijing, 12,167
Beijing(Wardarea), 9,201
Shanghai, 13,055
Shanghai(Wardarea), 10,186
Tokyo, 11,830
Tokyo(Wardarea), 7,980
Seoul, 10,389
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
-2,000 3,000 8,000 13,000 18,000 23,000Area (km2)
Popu
latio
n de
nsity
(per
sons
/km
2)
*The number with the city name and area of circleshows total popuation(1,000).
Energy balanceEnergy balance
18 energy types:18 energy types:Coal and coal Coal and coal products (7); Oil products (7); Oil and oil products and oil products (8); Natural Gas; (8); Natural Gas; Electricity; HeatElectricity; HeatNo Town gasNo Town gas
17 sectors in total; 17 sectors in total; Supply (4); Supply (4); TransportationTransportation(6); Final (6); Final cons. (7).cons. (7).Partially available: Partially available: mining (7); mining (7); manufacturing (17)manufacturing (17)
85, 90, 85, 90, 9595--9999
Commercial Commercial publicationpublication
Energy Energy balancebalanceBeijing/ Beijing/
ShanghaiShanghai
28 energy types:28 energy types:Coal and coal Coal and coal products (5); Oil products (5); Oil and oil products and oil products (19); Natural Gas; (19); Natural Gas; Town Gas; Town Gas; Electricity; HeatElectricity; Heat
8 sectors in total;8 sectors in total;Production(1)Production(1)Transformation(3)Transformation(3)Final cons. (4)/Final cons. (4)/ResCom ResCom aggregatedaggregated
9090--9898Internal Internal database of database of KEEIKEEI
Energy Energy balancebalanceSeoulSeoul
17 energy types:17 energy types:Coal and coal Coal and coal products (3); Oil products (3); Oil and oil products and oil products (11); Natural Gas; (11); Natural Gas; Town Gas; Town Gas; ElectricityElectricity
31 final cons. sectors in 31 final cons. sectors in total: Agriculture; total: Agriculture; manufacturing (22); manufacturing (22); residential; commercial; residential; commercial; Transportation (4)/Transportation (4)/no no Construction, energy for Construction, energy for air craft is not includedair craft is not included
70, 80, 70, 80, 9090--9898
Internal Internal report of report of TMGTMG
Final energy Final energy consumption consumption datadata
TokyoTokyo
Energy typeEnergy typeSectorSectorYearYearSourceSourceTypeType
Common format of final energy consumption Common format of final energy consumption table (13 energy types and 5 sectors)table (13 energy types and 5 sectors)
Total
Others
Heat
Electricity
Town Gas
Natural Gas
LPG
Other Petroleum Products
Heavy Oil (Fuel Oil, Bunkner)
Kerosene
Gasoline
Diesel
Crude Oil
Coal
TOETOETOETOETOETOEUNIT:
TotalOthersTransportationCommercialResidential Industry
SectoralSectoral datadata
Total Total residential onlyresidential onlyNo commercialNo commercial
Total Total residential onlyresidential onlyNo commercialNo commercial
Commercial Commercial (office, school, (office, school, hospital, hospital, entertainment, entertainment, etc), etc), Residential Residential (wooden and (wooden and nonnon--wooden wooden (5))(5))
Floor spaceFloor space
Residential/CommercialResidential/Commercial
No. of major No. of major energy service energy service devices for devices for urban and ruralurban and ruralNo efficiency No efficiency datadata
NoNo
No. of energy No. of energy service devices service devices (heating, (heating, cooling, lighting cooling, lighting refrigerator, refrigerator, TVs, etc)TVs, etc)Energy Energy efficiency by efficiency by typetype
AppliancesAppliances
Waste managementWaste managementTransportationTransportation
NoNoWaste collected Waste collected volume by typevolume by typePaper, plastic and Paper, plastic and textile are textile are integratedintegratedNo calorific valueNo calorific value
Working hour of Working hour of passenger vehicle, passenger vehicle, speed, Tonspeed, Ton--km, km, average freight average freight capacitycapacityvehiclevehicle--km km (survey report)(survey report)
Passenger vehicle Passenger vehicle (including bus), Truck(including bus), TruckCar, Small bus, Car, Small bus, Large bus, Small Large bus, Small truck, Large trucktruck, Large truck��6 types, 3 types6 types, 3 types
Beijing/ Beijing/ ShanghaiShanghai
No. of No. of facilities facilities (incinerator, (incinerator, landfill site, landfill site, composting)composting)Capacity of Capacity of facilitiesfacilities
Waste collected Waste collected volume by volume by treatment method treatment method and by type (10)and by type (10)Calorific value of Calorific value of waste by typewaste by type
Vehicle number, Vehicle number, Driving distance Driving distance (national average)(national average)vehiclevehicle--km (pass. km (pass. car, taxi, bus)car, taxi, bus)
Bus, Truck, Bus, Truck, Passenger car, Passenger car, Special vehicleSpecial vehicleNA for further detail NA for further detail datadata�� 3 types3 types
SeoulSeoul
No. of No. of facilities facilities (incinerator, (incinerator, landfill site, landfill site, composting)composting)Capacity of Capacity of facilitiesfacilities
Waste collected Waste collected volume by volume by treatment method treatment method and by type (10)and by type (10)Calorific value of Calorific value of waste by typewaste by type
PassengerPassenger--km, km, TonTon--kmkmvehiclevehicle--km km (survey report)(survey report)
Bus, Truck, Bus, Truck, Passenger vehicle, Passenger vehicle, light car (<660cc)light car (<660cc)Truck (4), Bus (2), Truck (4), Bus (2), Sedan (2), Light Sedan (2), Light motor (2), Special motor (2), Special use (2), Heavy use (2), Heavy special kinds of special kinds of vehiclevehicle��6 types, 3 types6 types, 3 types
TokyoTokyo
FacilitiesFacilitiesWaste volumeWaste volumeTravel demandTravel demandVehicle fleetVehicle fleet
Emission factorEmission factorPMPM--1010HCHCNOxNOxCOCOCO2CO2
g/kmg/km by by type of type of vehiclevehicle
g/kmg/km by by type of type of vehiclevehicle
g/kmg/km by by type of type of vehiclevehicle
Note1: Light duty gasoline vehicle, Light duty diesel Note1: Light duty gasoline vehicle, Light duty diesel vehicle, Light duty gasoline truck 1 and 2, Light duty vehicle, Light duty gasoline truck 1 and 2, Light duty diesel truck, Heavy duty diesel truck, Heavy duty diesel truck, Heavy duty diesel truck, Heavy duty gasoline vehicle, Heavy duty diesel vehicle.gasoline vehicle, Heavy duty diesel vehicle.Note2: Past emission factors are estimated based on Note2: Past emission factors are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and their emission standard.their emission standard.
IPCC IPCC guideline guideline (1996)(1996)Energy Energy balancebalance
Beijing/ Beijing/ ShanghaiShanghai
Note1: Private passenger car, tax, small bus (gas., Note1: Private passenger car, tax, small bus (gas., diesel, LPG), medium bus (diesel), large bus (LNG), diesel, LPG), medium bus (diesel), large bus (LNG), small truck (gas., LPG, diesel) medium truck, large small truck (gas., LPG, diesel) medium truck, large trucktruckNote2: Past emission factors are estimated based on Note2: Past emission factors are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and their emission standard. their emission standard. No information for future No information for future
IPCC IPCC guideline guideline (1996)(1996)Energy Energy balancebalance
SeoulSeoul
Note1: Classification of vehicle type (Passenger Note1: Classification of vehicle type (Passenger vehicle, bus, light truck and ordinary truck) is based on vehicle, bus, light truck and ordinary truck) is based on transportation census which is not consistent with transportation census which is not consistent with Tokyo statistical yearbook and vehicle registration data.Tokyo statistical yearbook and vehicle registration data.Note2: Emission factors for each type of vehicle in use Note2: Emission factors for each type of vehicle in use are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet are estimated based on the existing vehicle fleet composition by vintage and their emission standards.composition by vintage and their emission standards.
National National emission emission factor (factor (MoEMoE, , Japan)Japan)TEPCOTEPCO
TokyoTokyo
Overall framework of the project Overall framework of the project in practicein practice
Macro socioeconomic sector (GME)
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
Waste managementCO2 and other pollutants (2000-2020)
Energy (2000-2020)
• Embodied energy in production sector
• OD based transportation study
• Direct/indirect
• MARKAL model for Shanghai
Main models
Complementary studies
• CGE
• Factor decomposition
Selected complementary studiesSelected complementary studies
Issues to be addressed by complementary Issues to be addressed by complementary studiesstudies�� Interaction with outsideInteraction with outside
Energy dependency and transEnergy dependency and trans--boundary boundary environmental impactsenvironmental impactsTraffic inflow and outflow with surrounding regionsTraffic inflow and outflow with surrounding regions
�� Urban economic growth Urban economic growth CGE (Computational General Equilibrium) modelCGE (Computational General Equilibrium) model