Identification of High Risk Areas

RAOP-MED WP4

Evaluation of Oil Spillage

RAOP-MED WP5

East Mediterranean Sea

HAZMAT

27.10.15

WP4 Scope of Work

• Identify the high risk areas in the east Mediterranean Sea

• Map the high risk areas obtained

Definitions

• Grid cell has been defined as 0.1° X 0.1° (app. 9 km X 9 km).

• High risk has been defined as a frequency of at least once in 100 years for an oil spill.

Six Generic Scenarios

• Vessel-vessel collision

• Vessel-rig collision

• Spill from vessels (for reasons other than collision)

• Spill from oil rigs (for any reason other than collision)

• Spill due to disconnection during oil discharge from an oil rig

• Spills from maritime connection

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• Vessel traffic density - number of vessels (ships and tankers) passing through a grid cell during a one year period (2013)

• Vessel traffic density has been received from IOLR.

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• P - Probability of accident

• Pg - The geometrical probability

• Pc - The causation probability

Vessel-Vessel Collision

Geometrical probability by Macduff's model (1974)

• Pg– Probability of collision per grid cell

• D – Average distance between ships or between a ship and a rig [nautical miles]

• X – Actual length of path to be considered for a single ship [nautical miles]

• L – Average vessel length [meters]

• θ – The angle of collision

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• The causation probability Pc

• Probability of causing or failing to avoid the accident

Oil Spill from Rigs

• Vessel-Rig collision

• Spills due to: – Blowouts

– Helicopter accidents

– Structure failures

• Spill due to disconnection during oil loading from an oil / condensate rig to a tanker

Oil Spill from Maritime

Connections

• Israeli contingency plan is currently being updated

• Full bore rupture from a flexible hose – for example during the connection to the

maritime connection

• Full bore rupture from the offshore pipeline – for example due to maintenance work

Results

0.06%

0.24% 2.75%

14.05%

47.83% 25.49%

8.35%

1.24%

Percentage division of probabilities obtained

10^0

10^-1

10^-2

10^-3

10^-4

10^-5

10^-6

10^-7

Results Grid Map*

*To be updated

WP5 Scope of Work

• Evaluate the oil spills in the east Mediterranean Sea by size and type

Six Generic Scenarios

• Vessel-vessel collision

• Vessel-rig collision

• Spill from vessels (for reasons other than collision)

• Spill from oil rigs (for any reason other than collision)

• Spill due to disconnection during oil discharge from an oil rig

• Spills from maritime connection

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• According to REMPEC , it has been found that only 50% of the collision accidents will cause an oil spill (regardless of spill size)

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• The relative size of the vessels colliding

– 40% of the collisions between a ship and a tanker, the tankers will spill their oil cargo

– 60% of the collisions will result in a spill from the ship's fuel oil tank

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• Tankers cargo according to global product demand of the different oil types

7%

25%

7%

29%

11%

11%

10%

Global Product Demand

Naphta

Gasoline

Jet/Kerosene

Diesel/Gasoil

Residual fuel

Other

LPG (gas- not relevant)

Vessel-Vessel Collision

• Fuel oil tank :

– Marine diesel oil

– HFO (heavy fuel oil)

Oil Spill from Rigs

• Vessel-Rig collision - according to the vessel colliding into the rig

• Spill due to disconnection during oil loading from an oil / condensate rig to a tanker

• Spills due to: – Blowouts

– Helicopter accidents

– Structure failures

Oil Spill from Maritime

Connections

• Israeli contingency plan is currently being updated

• Full bore rupture from a flexible hose – for example during the connection to the

maritime connection

• Full bore rupture from the offshore pipeline – for example due to maintenance work

Results

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

13.86 34.64 62.36

110.85 166.28

221.71

443.42

762.13

[10

0 m

^3]

Tanker DWT

Gasoline

10 DWT

25 DWT

45 DWT

80 DWT

120 DWT

160 DWT

320 DWT

550 DWT

17.9% 8.9% 27.0% 12.6% 15.8% 9.8% 7.5% 0.6%

Results

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

12.45 31.12

56.02

99.60 149.40

199.20

398.39

684.73

[10

0 m

^3]

Tanker DWT

Jet/Kerosene

10 DWT

25 DWT

45 DWT

80 DWT

120 DWT

160 DWT

320 DWT

550 DWT

17.9% 8.9% 27.0% 12.6% 15.8% 9.8% 7.5% 0.6%

Results

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

12.32 30.81 55.45

98.58 147.87

197.16

394.32

677.74

[10

0 m

^3]

Tanker DWT

Diesel/Gasoil

10 DWT

25 DWT

45 DWT

80 DWT

120 DWT

160 DWT

320 DWT

550 DWT

17.9% 8.9% 27.0% 12.6% 15.8% 9.8% 7.5% 0.6%

Results

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

10.84 27.11

48.80 86.75

130.13

173.50

347.00

596.41

[10

0 m

^3]

Tanker DWT

Other*

10 DWT

25 DWT

45 DWT

80 DWT

120 DWT

160 DWT

320 DWT

550 DWT

17.9% 8.9% 27.0% 12.6% 15.8% 9.8% 7.5% 0.6%

* Including bitumen, waxes, direct use of crude oil, etc.

Results

• The average oil spill amount from a vessel’s fuel oil tank is 1650m3 (70% HFO, 30%MDO)

• the amount estimated in oil discharge from rig is 1679 ton (about 2000m3)

• According to the Israeli contingency plan (2007) the maximum amount to be spilled in maritime connection scenario is about 8500 ton oil (crude oil).