Identifying most vulnerable (Roma) communities in Bulgaria

Joost de Laat (Phd)Senior Economist

Human Development Europe and Central Asia

The World Bank

2012 Bulgaria Poverty Mapping project – Statistical Office/ World Bank / European Commission

What are poverty maps? Going from high level NUTS to small LAU areas

Combining 2011 census information with EU-SILC survey information as a (potential) way to poverty mapping

Bulgaria poverty mapping case study

Outline

Estimating EU Poverty Indicators @ LAU Levels

How to go from ‘high-level’ NUTS…?

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/nuts_nomenclature/principles_characteristics

Example: NUTS 3

Example: Nuts 3 in Bulgaria represent 28 regions; Nuts 2 is 6 regions; Nuts 1 is 2 regions

…down to ‘Local Administrative Units’ LAU levels 1 and 2?

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/nuts_nomenclature/local_administrative_units

LAU 1: Bulgaria Poverty Incidence Map

LAU 1 level (‘nuts 4’) – 262 municipalities (2005)

Estimating EU Poverty Indicators @ LAU levels: Main Challenge

Source: “EU legislation on the 2011 Population and Housing Censuses” (Eurostat 2011, ISSN 1977-0375)

In summary: Household survey like EU-SILC have breadth

of indicators, but sample sizes too small to be representative for local area units

Population censuses do allow small areas calculations but frequently lack breadth of indicators necessary to calculate main poverty indicators

Small Area Estimation: Combine Census and Survey Information

Common Household Background CharacteristicsEU-SILC or other detailed

survey

Common Household Background Characteristics

National Population Census

Background characteristics unique to EU-

SILC

Household Welfare Indicator(s) such as at-risk-of-poverty in

EU-SILC

Step 0

Step 1

Household Welfare Indicator(s) such as

at-risk-of-poverty not in census

Step 2

POVERTY MAP(S)

Highly disaggregated databases of:◦ Poverty◦ Inequality◦ Average income/consumption◦ Calorie intake◦ Under-nutrition◦ Other indicators (health, employment etc)

What are Poverty Maps?

Goals◦ Identify poor municipalities◦ Serve a basis for targeting for poverty reduction

Implementation: Joint team (Data Users’ Group)◦ Leadership of the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy (MLSP)◦ Technical expertise of the National Statistical Institute (NSI)◦ Active involvement of leading Bulgarian academics◦ World Bank financing and technical assistance

Outcomes◦ 2003 and 2005 poverty incidence maps

Bulgaria Poverty Map Case Study

Methodology◦ Data sources: 2001 Census and 2001 and 2003

Bulgaria Integrated Household Surveys (BIHS), and district level indicators

◦ BIHS: 2,500-3,023 households, representative at NUTS 1 (Sofia, urban, rural level)

◦ 30 common indicators between Census and BIHS◦ Standard “small-area estimation” procedure

Municipal level indicators estimated◦ Poverty rate, poverty depth, severity of poverty, and

Gini coefficients

Bulgaria Poverty Map Case Study

Main Findings Considerable variation in poverty levels across

municipalities: 3%-40% of individuals Considerable variation in poverty levels across

municipalities within the same district Poorest areas characterized by relatively higher shares of

ethnic minorities (Roma and Turkish households) Poorest areas characterized by lacking in:o human capital endowment (prevalence of people with low

education attainment, or elderly pensioners), ando infrastructure

Bulgaria Poverty Map Case Study

Policy use◦ Strategic poverty documents, e.g.

The National Plan for Poverty Reduction 2005-2006 Strategy for Reduction of Poverty and Social Exclusion

2006-08 District Development Strategies 2005-2015

◦ Targeting of antipoverty interventions Program for Poverty Reduction in the (13) Poorest

Municipalities Targeting of Social Investment Fund (SIF) projects included in a multi-dimensional continuous scoring formula applied

for ranking of municipal proposals, along with other indicators Social Investment and Employment Promotion Project (WB)

Bulgaria Poverty Map Case Study

Appropriate for targeting Poverty maps can be very useful tool to target poorest areas

Implemented around the world.

Window of opportunity: 2011 Censuses and annual EU-SILC or HBS survey data

Involve community of Roma stakeholders to identify Roma communities on poverty map and build ownership

Identify vulnerable communities concluding Remarks