S1. Identifying the forces shaping the future

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S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future

S2 – Identification of plausible futures

S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps

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Objective - Identify all forces that had, have, willhave an influence on the system

Method “Brainstorming” Visualisation and grouping Elimination of duplicates Discussion: relevance + internal/external

Output A list of relevant internal forces A list of relevant external forces

S1.2 Identify the forces of change

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A force of change has the capacity to transform the system

Some rules about identifying a force of change Not a sentence : “Inputs are too expansive”

No negative forms: “Bad weather”

No physical expression : “Money”

What is a force of change ?

Cost of inputs

Access to financial resources Climatic conditions

It must have states that can be identified “Conflicts between local communities and private companies” = is not a force but

“Relations between local communities and private companies” = is a force of change;

and it can take different states such as: Trust; Distrust; Open conflict, Indifference.

Support material: S1.2 Methodological Note 4

External and internal forces

External forces Generally related to more global policy, economic, social,

environmental issues

The actors of the system cannot affect/change them

They usually are very influential on all other forces

Internal forces Generally related to specific issues within the system

They are influenced/controlled by the actors in the system

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External and internal forces

Why separate them?

External forces strongly influence internal forces. If they are kept together, strong internal forces cannot be identified.

Building scenarios on external forces which cannot be influenced by the actors of the system would mean that actors have no possibility of action.

When separated the analysis is more accurate leading to contextual scenarios and internal scenarios

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Two risks Too complex (too many forces)

The more the forces, the longer the analysis Co-linearity: forces that behave similarly become drivers Heterogeneity: mixing small and big causes of change

Too simple (not enough forces) Omission: important forces are missing Bias: key dimensions are not considered

Some hints 20 to 60 internal forces (the software handle 73 forces)

Technical, physical, economic, social, policy, cultural Make sense

How many forces of change?

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Organizing a stakholder workshop for the identification of the forces of change

Method

“Brainstorming”

Elimination of duplicates, visualisation and grouping

Discussion: relevance + internal/external

Application

Support material: S1.2 Methodological Note 8

S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future

S2 – Identification of plausible futures

S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps

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Objective - Reach an agreement about the meaning of each force

Method

Structured group discussion with the “experts”

Output

A list of definitions to be used in the next steps

S1.3 Define the forces of change

Support material: S1.3 Methodological Note 10

S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future

S2 – Identification of plausible futures

S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps

11

S1.4 Measure mutual influences

Objective - Estimate the direct influence of each force on all other forces

Method Structural analysis

Estimations of the direct influence {0;1} for each force

Filling an Influence/Dependence Matrix

Output

An Influence/Dependence matrix of all direct influences

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What is a direct influence?

Force 1 has a direct influence on Force 2 only if a change in Force 1 causes an immediate change in Force 2.

If the state of Force 1 changes, then the state of Force 2 also automatically change without needing any other Force to act.

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Common errors when working on direct influences

Confusion in the sense of causality

One believes that A B, but in fact B A

Indirect influence

One believes that A B, but in fact A C B

Co-variation

One believes that A B , but in fact C A and simultaneously C B

A B

C

x

A

C

B

x

A BA B

x

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The influence/dependence matrix

Action of: on: Force 1 Force 2 Force 3 Force 4

Total

influence

Force 1 1 1

Force 2 1 1 2

Force 3 1 1

Force 4 1 1

Totaldependence

1 2 1 1 5

Force 2 has a direct influence on Force 1 and Force 4

Force 2 has no direct influence on Force 115

The Influence/Dependence matrix

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How do we fill the I/D matrix?

Influence of Force1

0 1

Use a physical support (foam board, flip chart, paper) and cards with the name of the forces and fixing material (needles, glue, tape…)

Example with values from 0 to 1

Force 2

Force 4

Force 3

is

onon

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How do we fill the I/D matrix?

or

Directly fill the electronic I/D matrix projected on a screen or a wall

18Support material: S1.4 Methodological Note

S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future

S2 – Identification of plausible futures

S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps

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Objective Find the most influential forces in the evolution of the

system - “the driving forces”

Method Interpretation of the matrix and graphs

Global direct influence of each forceGlobal direct and indirect weighted influence Position of the forces in the graphsThe strength of the force

Output A set of key driving forces

S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

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The direct influence/dependence Automatically calculated in a table below the direct influence

matrix in the Variables' influence worksheet

The indirect influence/dependence Automatically calculated in the indirect influence matrix and

related tables below it in the Variables' total influ worksheet

The global influence /dependence Automatically calculated in the global influence matrix and

related tables below it in the Variables' total influ worksheet

The global influence matrix is located below the matrix and tables of the indirect influence

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Direct influence Direct dependence

AccEau 9 0,64 AccEau 9 0,64

AccEauPot 11 0,78 AccEauPot 6 0,42

AccEmpAId 15 1,07 AccEmpAId 4 0,28

AccFoncier 11 0,78 AccFoncier 8 0,57

AccIntrant 8 0,57 AccIntrant 8 0,57

AccPresSoc 6 0,42 AccPresSoc 3 0,21

AmenTerr 26 1,85 AmenTerr 22 1,57

CapVRefRur 15 1,07 CapVRefRur 26 1,85

CapGestRur 17 1,21 CapGestRur 25 1,78

Circali 20 1,42 Circali 9 0,64

ConnLoc 23 1,64 ConnLoc 9 0,64

ContrRegAg 31 2,21 ContrRegAg 8 0,57

CoutEner 13 0,92 CoutEner 4 0,28

DispEnerRur 18 1,28 DispEnerRur 12 0,85

EchVillage 9 0,64 EchVillage 13 0,92

EducEnfant 21 1,5 EducEnfant 29 2,07

EmInitLoc 23 1,64 EmInitLoc 36 2,57

EspritJeune 12 0,85 EspritJeune 26 1,85

EvolDeRepRu 13 0,92 EvolDeRepRu 18 1,28

Example of a direct influence and dependence table

Very influent forces

Very independent forces

Coordinates of the forces in the graphs 22

Direct influence Direct dependence

AccEau 9 0,64 AccEau 9 0,64

CapGestRur 17 1,21 CapGestRur 25 1,78

Circali 20 1,42 Circali 9 0,64

ConnLoc 23 1,64 ConnLoc 9 0,64

ContrRegAg 31 2,21 ContrRegAg 8 0,57

CoutEner 13 0,92 CoutEner 4 0,28

DispEnerRur 18 1,28 DispEnerRur 12 0,85

EchVillage 9 0,64 EchVillage 13 0,92

EducEnfant 21 1,5 EducEnfant 29 2,07

EmInitLoc 23 1,64 EmInitLoc 36 2,57

EspritJeune 12 0,85 EspritJeune 26 1,85

EvolDeRepRur 13 0,92 EvolDeRepRur 18 1,28

Example of application of the strength calculation

Same influenceDifferent dependences

The strongest force should be ConnLoc

Calculation of ConnLoc strength: 23/826*(23/(23+9)) = 0,020Calculation of EmInitLoc strength: 23/826*(23/(23+36)) = 0,010

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The direct, indirect and global strength Automatically calculated in a table below each related matrix (direct,

indirect, global in the corresponding worksheets

The tables are located on the right side of the influence/dependence tables

How is the it calculated? The formula takes into account both its influence and its dependence:

first the influence of the force is divided by the total influence of all forces, and then this result is multiplied by the quotient of the force’s influence by the sum of its influence and dependence

The “strongest” forces are the most influent and the least dependent

The “weakest” forces are the least influent and the most dependent

Calculating strength

Strength (Force 1)=Influence (Force 1)

Sum (all influences)

Influence (Force 1)

(Influence + Dependence) (Force 1) x

24Support material: S1.5 Methodological Note

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Visualizing the forces of change

Outlyers

Drivers Leverages

Outputs

Bunch forces

High

Low

HighLow

Influence

Dependence

The Influence/Dependence Graphs

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The driving forces are selected first among the drivers

Some driving forces can be leverages

The driving forces are selected among the strongest

Between 4 and 8 is reasonable

Less than 4: a few too simplistic scenarios

More than 8: too many very complex scenarios

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Control and rules in Agriculture, Fishery and Husbandry

Immigrated population and workers in the rural areas

Infrastructures (roads, harbours, airports) Local know-how and knowledgeModes of production and functionality of

agriculture Land use managementBehavior of the population towards public

authority and the respect of the rules of law

Example of driving forces:the evolution of the rural world in Mayotte

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Graphe des influences/dépendances directes

0000000000000000000000000000000000000000

UrbZonRur

SytRisqEpA

TypeAgric

SpecifTerr

SystEntrSol

SitRisquHum

ServProx

RessHum

ResComm

RemuTrav

RelComVC

QualProdAl

QualEnvRur

PopImmig

PenibTrav

OuvMayExt

OfProdLocOfProdImp

NivPrelRess

MoyTransp

MonEchAg

ModProd

MobMig

MigVilCamp

Medtrad

MainImm

InsertProf

InfraRoute

InfraPort

ModGouvEchVillage

DispEnerRur

CoutEner

ContrRegAg

ConnLoc

Circali

CapGestRur

CapVRefRur

AmenTerr

AccPresSoc

AccEau

AccFoncier

AccIntrant

AccEauPot

AccEmpAId

EducEnfant

EmInitLoc

EspritJeuneEvolDeRepRur

EvolHabAlim

EvolModVie

EvolSecAct

FonctAgr

FormJeunAdul

Imcultur

RoleHF

SecFonc

ZRevenu

ValEcoAg

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3

Dépendance

Infl

uen

ce

Droits de propriété intellectuelle: CIRAD - 2010 Auteurs: Robin Bourgeois et

Franck Jésus

LEVIERSMOTEURS

SINGULIERS PRODUITS

Drivers

OutputsOutlyers

Leverages

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Example of selection of driving forcesTotal weighted strength Total weighted strength Total weighted strength Total weighted strength

ContrRegAg 2,71 RessHum 1,21 FormJeunAdul 0,75 QualProdAl 0,44

InfraRoute 2,63 ResComm 1,18 Medtrad 0,75 RoleHF 0,43

MainImm 2,61 UrbZonRur 1,16 SystEntrSol 0,75 ValEcoAg 0,42

ConnLoc 2,07 EmInitLoc 1,14 AccPresSoc 0,71 NivPrelRess 0,42

AmenTerr 2,01 CapGestRur 1,11 SpecifTerr 0,69 EvolSecAct 0,37

PopImmig 2,01 MoyTransp 1,02 MobMig 0,67 Imcultur 0,34

Circali 1,90 EducEnfant 0,99 OfProdImp 0,63 RemuTrav 0,33

InfraPort 1,84 AccFoncier 0,94 SecFonc 0,61 EvolHabAlim 0,33

ModProd 1,83 AccEauPot 0,93 EchVillage 0,58 SitRisqEpA 0,29

FonctAgr 1,66 ModGouv 0,89 QualEnvRur 0,58 InsertProf 0,28

DispEnerRur 1,59 TypeAgric 0,88 AccEau 0,56 SitRisqHum 0,13

CoutEner 1,50 MonEchAg 0,87 RelComVC 0,50 MonEchAg 0,87

AccEmpAId 1,48 MigVilCamp 0,86 OfProdLoc 0,50 MigVilCamp 0,86

Zrevenu 1,42 OuvMayExt 0,84 AccIntrant 0,49 OuvMayExt 0,84

EvolModVie 1,40 CapVRefRur 0,81 EspritJeune 0,47 CapVRefRur 0,81

ServProx 1,28 EvolDeRepRur 0,77 PenibTrav 0,46 EvolDeRepRur 0,77

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Application

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