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IEA Perspective on Clean Energy Transitions
21ème Colloque du SER, Maison de l’UNESCO, Paris, 6 February 2020
Dr. Fatih Birol
Executive Director, International Energy Agency
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Perspectives from energy history
Global energy demand
The last century has witnessed multiple transitions to and from different fuels and technologies
20182000197419501919
Coal Natural gasWood Modern renewablesNuclearOil
0%
100%
50%
14 300 Mtoe1 500 Mtoe
The challenge today is one of scale: global energy use is ten times higher than in 1919…. and growing
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Power and SUVs have been the main forces driving emissions higher
Change in CO2 emissions by energy sector, 2010-2018
The global fleet of SUVs increased from 35 million in 2010 to over 200 million in 2018, becoming a major
force in rising oil demand and the second-largest reason for CO2 emissions growth since 2010
SUVsPower Heavyindustry
Trucks Aviation Shipping Othercars
- 400
400
800
1 200
1 600Mt CO2
0
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Global energy efficiency improvements are slowing down
In 2018 the global economy produced 1.2% more value for every unit of energy used compared to 2017.
Improvements in primary energy intensity
Cost-effective opportunities exist to deliver an annual improvement rate of 3%.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2010-14 2015 2016 2017 2018
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Solar is the star
Global power capacity by source in the Stated Policies Scenario
Renewables provide three-quarters of the growth in electricity supply to 2040 under stated policies but
much more is needed: in Sustainable Development Scenario wind and solar capacity in 2040 is 50% higher
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Solar PV
WindHydro
1 000
2 000
3 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GW
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Electricity moves to the heart of modern energy security
Global needs for flexibility double to 2040, but today’s market designs may not bring sufficient investment to
deliver it, e.g. in power plants, networks, demand-side response and energy storage in all forms, incl. hydrogen
Hour-to-hour adjustments required in power systems due to variability in demand, wind and solar
IndiaChinaEuropean Union United States
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
2018
2040
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An unprecedented momentum for hydrogen
• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges
Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options & tapping their full potential
Decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors – steel, chemicals, trucks, ships & planes
Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing flexibility to balance grids
• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructure needs to be developed; cleaner
hydrogen is needed; and regulatory barriers persist
• Hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, but declining costs of PV & wind increasingly make them
a low-cost source for hydrogen including in Latin America, Africa, Middle East, India & Australia
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Investment in CCUS will be critical to ensure that the young coal fleet is compatible with climate targets, while
repurposing them to provide flexibility can reduce CO2 and pollutant emissions, and help integrate renewables
Today’s coal plants leave a legacy that technology can address
Annual CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants
Existing andunder construction
Sustainable DevelopmentScenario
2018 2040 20502030
Coal-fired capacity, existing and under construction:
2
4
6
8
10
12
Gig
ato
nn
es
Early retirements
CCUS retrofits orrepurposing
Subcritical
Advanced
Combinedheat andpower
2 250 GW
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No single or simple solutions to reach sustainable energy goals
Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions in the Sustainable Development Scenario by source
A host of policies and technologies will be needed across every sector to keep climate targets within reach,
and further technology innovation will be essential to aid the pursuit of a 1.5°C stabilisation
10
20
30
40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt CO2
Other renewables end-uses
Nuclear
Sustainable Development Scenario
Biofuels transport
Air conditioners
Cars & trucksHeavy industry
WindSolar PV
Hydro
Electric vehiclesFuel switch incl. hydrogen
Buildings
CCUS power
Current Trends
Efficiency
Renewables
Fuel switch, CCUSand other
Aviation and shipping
Power
CCUS industry
Other renewables power
Light industry
Stated Policies ScenarioIndustrial electric motors
Behavioural changeResource efficiency
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Conclusions
• The energy sector is adjusting to new pressures, but the overall response remains far from
adequate in view of the energy security & environmental threats the world faces
• While solar, wind, storage & digital technologies are transforming the electricity sector, legacy
issues surrounding existing infrastructure also need to be tackled
• Investment in energy efficiency, renewables and more flexible energy systems must significantly
accelerate
• The oil & gas industry is critical for some key capital-intensive technologies to reach maturity,
including CCUS, low-carbon hydrogen, biofuels, and offshore wind
• The IEA is convening, leading & supporting a Grand Coalition – made up of govts, industry & civil
society – to accelerate global energy transitions that underpin energy security & economic growth
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