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IEA –international state of the art in Urban Energy

Alexander LosDexa Solar / TU Delft

Solar Resource Assessment and ForecastingPVPS Task 16 (Photovoltaic Power Systems)

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Task 46: Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting

IEA Solar Heating and Cooling Programme

Providing knowledge of bankable solar resource data sets and tools.

PV production from 90 individual systems (black), and avg. of all systems (red) (Source: Jan Remund, Meteotest)

Rotating Shadowband Irradiometer (RSI) Calibration Station at Plataforma Solar de Almería, Spain (Source: Stefan Wilbert, DLR)

OBJECTIVES• Evaluate solar resource variability that impacts large penetrations of solar

technologies; • Develop standardization and integration procedures for creating

“bankable” data sets; • Improve procedures for short-term solar resource forecasting; • Advance solar resource modeling and analytical procedures.

AREAS OF WORKSubtask A: Solar Resource Applications for High Penetrations

of Solar TechnologiesLeader: Richard Perez (SUNY/Albany, USA) Studies for synthetic production of short term time series

Subtask B: Standardization and Integration Procedures for Data Bankability

Leader : Stefan Wilbert (DLR/PSA, Spain)Measurement best practices, data sources (satellite with ground data), data

uncertainties, evaluation of meteorological products

Subtask C: Solar Irradiance ForecastingLeader : Elke Lorenz (Uni-Oldenburg, Germany)Short-term forecasting, integration of solar forecasts into operations

Subtask D: Advanced Resource ModelingLeader : Philippe Blanc (MINES ParisTech, France)Improvements to retrieval methods, long-term analysis of trends and variability

SHC Task 46 Poster, 2014

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Outcomes• Best practices manuals for solar measurements, benchmarking of solar products• Reports on data integration procedures• Benchmarking reports on solar forecasting techniques• Research reports on model improvements (e.g. AOD, terrain influences, clear sky models)• Presentations at international conferences; webinars; specialty workshops• Journal publications

DurationJuly 2011 – June 2016

Participating CountriesAUS, AUT, CAN, DEN, FRA, GER, NLD, SIN, SPA, SUI, USA, NOR, (SLO)

Operating Agent / ContactDave Renné – 2385 Panorama Ave., Boulder, Colorado 80304 USAE-mail : drenne@mac.com

http://task46.iea-shc.org/

Benchmarking results of various forecasting schemes, using RMSE (root-mean-square error) of model vs. observed values at multiple USA solar measurement stations as a metric (Source: Richard Perez, SUNY/Albany)

Uncertainties (RMSE, %) of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) clear sky calculations using Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Aerosol Optical Depth estimates compared with AOD’s from Aeronet measurement stations (Source: Philippe Blanc, MINES ParisTech)

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Algemene informatie PVPS T16 Titel: Solar resource for high penetration and large-scale applications

Operating agent: Jan Remund (Meteotest, Switzerland)

Start / verwachte einddatum: juli 2017 tot juni 2020 (gepland)

Betrokken landen: AUS, AUT, DEU, CAN, CHE, CHL, DNK, ESP, EU, FRA, GBR, ITA, NLD, NOR, SVK, USA

Doelstellingen: o Het verlagen van drempels en kosten voor de integratie van

duurzame energie installatieso Het reduceren van investeringskosten voor duurzame energie

projecten door het verbeteren van de kwaliteit van zonnestralings-evaluaties en voorspellingen

Doelgroep: ontwikkelaars, investoren, banken, EPC’s, etc. van thermische, PV en CPV installaties. Verder: utilities, distributie (DSO) en transmissie (TSO) operators

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Opzet PVPS T16 Werkpakketten / subtasks

1. Evaluation of current and emerging resource assessment methodologies

2. [Provide] Enhanced data & bankable products3. Evaluation of current and emerging solar forecasting

techniques4. Dissemination and outreach

Subtasks 1 en 3: benaadrukt wetenschappelijke samenwerking Subtasks 2 en 4: gebruikersbelangen en informatie voorziening Dexa Solar’s bijdrage: Nowcasting van zonnestraling met behulp van

all-sky cameras en satelliet waarnemingen (van 0 tot 4 uur vooruit)

Forecast for t+4

Sun Mask

Forecast for t+2

Image transformation

All-Sky camera 1-15 min. DNI forecasts

Cloud motion vector field

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Verwachte resultaten PVPS T16 Deliverables:

o Workshops, webinarso Newsletters, publicaties, “Best Practice” handbooko Contributies conferentieso Rapporten

Relevantie voor Nederland:o PVPS T16 betrefft “Urban and Rural Implementation”o PVPS T16 legt meer nadruk op belang van gebruikers en

internationale samenwerkingo PVPS T16 leverd hoogwaardige informatie op over variabiliteit

en TMY van zonnestraling waarvoor de belangstelling ook in NL sterk toeneemd (planning, evaluatie, bankability etc.).

o Diverse workshops/webinars/newsletters voor gebruikerso Bevorderd samenwerking NL: Universiteit Utrecht / Dexa Solar

(universiteit – industrie)

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Huidige status PVPS T16 Status: Voorbereiding (wordt in oktober definitief beoordeeld tijdens

PVPS ExCo meeting, November 2016, Vienna, AUT)

Opmerkingen/Highlights:o PVPS T16 is deels voortzetting van succesvolle SHC T46o Kick-off meeting gepland in Q1 2017o Deelnemers: ~ 54 organisaties uit 16 landeno Totaal 337 ”Person-Months” bevestigde contribudieo Nadruk op behoeftes van gebruikers gelegd:

“This subtask [Dissemination and outreach] focuses on information dissemination procedures that effectively release key findings to the data users and other stakeholders involved in the PVPS, SolarPACES, and SHC Technology Implementing Agreements, and to the general public”

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FOR MORE INFORMATION

Task contact person: Jan Remund (Meteotest)www.meteotest.ch

My name: Alexander Los (los@dexasolar.com)www.dexasolar.com