1 1 If I’d known now what I’ll know then! Back casting to inform forest management decisions in the face of climate change. If I If I ’ ’ d known now what I d known now what I ’ ’ ll know then! ll know then! Back casting to inform forest management decisions in Back casting to inform forest management decisions in the face of climate change. the face of climate change. Andrew Park Andrew Park (University of Winnipeg) (University of Winnipeg) [email protected][email protected](204) 786 9407 (204) 786 9407 [email protected][email protected]http://andrewpark.org http://andrewpark.org
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If I’d known now what I’ll know then!
Back casting to inform forest management decisions in
the face of climate change.
If IIf I’’d known now what Id known now what I’’ll know then!ll know then!
Back casting to inform forest management decisions in Back casting to inform forest management decisions in
the face of climate change.the face of climate change.
Andrew ParkAndrew Park(University of Winnipeg)(University of Winnipeg)
�� How will forestry be transformed in a rapidly How will forestry be transformed in a rapidly changing climate? changing climate?
�� How can silvicultural decisions be made when the How can silvicultural decisions be made when the old assumptions about forest management no old assumptions about forest management no longer apply?longer apply?
�� How can researchers contribute to the successful How can researchers contribute to the successful adaptation of forests, urban landscapes, and adaptation of forests, urban landscapes, and restoration activities?restoration activities?
�� Forestry Assisted Migration (FAM, Pedlar Forestry Assisted Migration (FAM, Pedlar et alet al2012) as a focal adaptation strategy.2012) as a focal adaptation strategy.
QuestionsQuestions
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�� Our climatic future is dominated by Our climatic future is dominated by
““knownknown”” and and ““unknown unknownsunknown unknowns””. .
�� Adaptation requires a sophisticated Adaptation requires a sophisticated
knowledge of tree functional traits.knowledge of tree functional traits.
�� Need to adopt management that Need to adopt management that
Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.
Sensitivity and niche.Sensitivity and niche.
Environmental gradient
Response
Climatic Range
JuvenileJuvenile
AdultAdult
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Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.
Sensitivity and niche.Sensitivity and niche.
Environmental gradient
Response
Climatic Range
JuvenileJuvenile
AdultAdult
1313
Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.
Sensitivity and niche.Sensitivity and niche.
Environmental gradient
Response
Climatic Range
JuvenileJuvenile
AdultAdult
1414
Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.Adapted from Jackson et al, 2009.
Sensitivity and niche.Sensitivity and niche.
Environmental gradient
Response
Climatic Range
JuvenileJuvenile
AdultAdult
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Plant function and climatePlant function and climate
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Temperature (deg C)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Precipitation (mm)
Cold
tolerance
Spring
forcing
Growth rates /
competitionDrought / fire /
pests
Growth
Cessation /
Dormancy
1616
Temperature Temperature ““BacklashBacklash””..
http://www.canr.msu.edu/vanburen/frost.
html http://www.sciencedaily.co
m/releases/2008/03/080303
072651.htm
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Kvaalen and Johnsen, 2008
Phenology and Embryogenesis.Phenology and Embryogenesis.
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�� Epigenetics may foster local or regional Epigenetics may foster local or regional ““land land racesraces”” ..
�� Environmentally induced plasticity might buffer Environmentally induced plasticity might buffer populations against change (Johnston et al 2010) populations against change (Johnston et al 2010)
ButBut
�� What happens to seedlings acclimated to late bud What happens to seedlings acclimated to late bud set in unseasonal cold?set in unseasonal cold?
�� How long do epigenetic effects last as tree grows?How long do epigenetic effects last as tree grows?
�� Acclimation of bud set is sometimes accompanied Acclimation of bud set is sometimes accompanied by greater spring forcing requirements.by greater spring forcing requirements.
�� Vascular anatomy related to bud burst date and Vascular anatomy related to bud burst date and whether growth is determinate or indeterminate.whether growth is determinate or indeterminate.
�� Respiration acclimates to higher temperatures; Respiration acclimates to higher temperatures; photosynthesis less so. photosynthesis less so.
ButBut
�� What all this means and how multiple factors What all this means and how multiple factors interact is open to speculation.interact is open to speculation.
Other ObservationsOther Observations
2020
�� Our climatic future is dominated by Our climatic future is dominated by
““knownknown”” and and ““unknown unknownsunknown unknowns””. .
�� Adaptation requires a sophisticated Adaptation requires a sophisticated
knowledge of tree functional traits.knowledge of tree functional traits.
�� Need to adopt management that Need to adopt management that
First three focus on adaptation, while the fourth seeks First three focus on adaptation, while the fourth seeks mitigation via C storage or reduced GHG emissions mitigation via C storage or reduced GHG emissions
(Noss et al. 2001; Millar et al. 2007; Millar et al. 2008; (Noss et al. 2001; Millar et al. 2007; Millar et al. 2008; Bolte et al. 2009; Galatowitsch et al. 2009; Gunn et al. Bolte et al. 2009; Galatowitsch et al. 2009; Gunn et al.
