Dr. Diana Traikova, IAMO Forum 2016
If you call them will they come? Emigration intentions among Eastern European skilled farmers
www.iamo.de 2
Overview
1. Agricultural education and jobs in Bulgaria
2. Theoretical background
3. Data and methods
4. Results
5. Summary
Agricultural education in Bulgaria
• Transition – still not perfect adjustment to the market• Mismatch betwen labor market needs and university programs• Universities are funded based quantity and not quality• Demographic change• Competition among universities‐> loose admission criteria• Barely any professional consulting before the choice of study
program
The agricultural training in universities
• Low quality of the equimpment, overloaded study programs• Crisis in agriculture (especially in livestock sector)• Graduates unprepared for the practice• Many graduates work in different field and start from scratch• Misallocation of public money, of time and talent
Maybe some of these graduatesunfitting the local labor marketcould bring relief in the shortageof skilled farm labor in Germany ?
Survey among agricultural students
• Representive results for soon‐to‐graduate students in Bulgaria• Four universities• Sample of 461 students• Questionnaires filled out in class• Topics
– Professional plans– Lifestyle preferences– Abroad experience– Migration inclinations
Dr. Diana Traikova 7
Do you plan to work in farming after graduation? N=461
11.7%
15.0%
31.5%
16.5%
25.4%
absolut nicht eher nicht so-soeher ja absolut jaabsolutely no
rather yes
rather noabsolutely yes
so‐so
Dr. Diana Traikova 8
Which lifestyle do you prefer? N=461
58.5
21.619.9
020
4060
perc
ent
städtisch ländlich egalurban rural like both
Dr. Diana Traikova 9
Have you ever worked on a farm? N=461
67.2%
32.8%
NeinJaNoYes
Dr. Diana Traikova 10
How do you see your job chances in Bulgaria? N=461
0 10 20 30 40percent
sehr gut
gut
so-so
schlecht
sehr schlechtvery bad
bad
so‐so
good
very good
Language skills %, N=461
1.5
7.8
13.7
77.0
0 20 40 60 80percent
Fortgeschrittene
Intermediate
Anfänger
keine
Deutsch
21.7
36.2
25.6
16.5
0 10 20 30 40percent
Fortgeschrittene
Intermediate
Anfänger
keine
EnglischGerman English
none
beginner
advanced
intermediate
none
beginner
intermediate
advanced
Dr. Diana Traikova 12
Do you believe the situation in Bulgariawill improve in the next 5 years? N=461
23.6%
24.5%28.9%
15.6%
7.4%
absolut nicht eher nicht so-soeher ja absolut jaabsolutely norather yes
rather noabsolutely yes
so‐so
Dr. Diana Traikova 13
Should you receive a job offer as skilled farmer in rural Germany, how likely is it that you will emigrate within 5 years? N=461
17.1%
17.1%
32.5%
18.9%
14.3%
sehr unwahrscheinlich unwahrscheinlich so-sowahrscheinlich sehr wahrscheinlich
Means 66 students!
Just a drop in the sea!
87 students
very unlikely
likely very likelyunlikely so‐so
Dr. Diana Traikova 14
Intender/Stayer division
Should you receive a job offer as skilled farmer in rural Germany, how likely is it that you will emigrate within 5 years?
1 2 3 4 5
very unlikely very likely
Intenders
Following question used:
Stayers
Dr. Diana Traikova 15
Group comparison
Source: Own calculation.
Dr. Diana Traikova 16
German skills by group, N=461
3
13
18
119
4
23
45
236
0 50 100 150 200 250frequency
migriert
bleibt
Fortgeschritten
Intermediate
Anfänger
keine
Fortgeschritten
Intermediate
Anfänger
keine
Own calculation.
none
beginner
intermediate
advanced
Stayers
Intenders
none
beginner
intermediate
advanced
Dr. Diana Traikova 17
English skills by group, N=461
Own calcualtion.
37
65
32
19
63
102
86
56
0 20 40 60 80 100Häufigkeit
migriert
bleibt
Fortgeschritten
Intermediate
Anfänger
keine
Fortgeschritten
Intermediate
Anfänger
keinenone
beginner
intermediate
advanced
none
beginner
intermediate
advanced
Stayers
Intenders
frequencies
Dr. Diana Traikova 18
Ajzen‘s Theory of Planned Behavior
AttitudeDo I like the idea?
Social normsWhat will the others say?
Perceived controlCan I make it?
Intentionto migrate
Adapted from Ajzen, 1991.
Backgrou
nd factors
Dr. Diana Traikova 19
Theoretical model
Economicmotives
Non‐economicmotives
Attitude
Socialnorms
Perceived control
Instrumentalbarriers
Social barriers
Migrationintention
Dr. Diana Traikova 20
Operationalisation of migration intentions
Intention indicators
I would apply for a farm job in rural Germany
Should you receive a job offer as skilled farmer in rural Germany, how likely is it thatyou will emigrate within 5 years?
I would migrate to rural Germany for a longer time (4+ years)
I plan to emigrate.
Chronbach‘s Alpha = 0,772AVE = 0,585Composite reliability = 0,847HTMT Attitude –> Intention = 0,792
valid measurement
Dr. Diana Traikova 21
Operationalisation migration motives
Economic Non‐economic
Improve skills Escape corruption
Escape unemployment Escape Bulgarian mentality
Earn money I love to work with animals
Prepare my own farm I like the rural lifestyle
To use the social benefits in Germany I am happy with my life in Bulgaria
I would like to manage
I like the idea to work as a farm specialist in rural Germany
Dr. Diana Traikova 22
Operationalisation migration barriers
Instrumental Social
I have abroad experience I can‘t go because of children/elderly
I can easily find a place to stay I have supportive contacts in Germany
I can easily handle the language barrier I am confident I can integrate in Germany
I can handle the skills mismatch I can easily handle the stress from separation
I can easily fund the trip
These indicators form the perceived control
I can!
Dr. Diana Traikova 23
Partial Least Squares (PLS) Model, N=461
Own calculation with SmartPLS 3.
Dr. Diana Traikova 24
Message PLS Model
Economic motives
Attitude
Socialnorms
Perceived control
Instrumentalbarriers
SozialeBarrieren
Migrationintentions
Skills
MoneyBG unemployment
Prepare own farm
Be a manager
Family
LanguageAccommodation
Skills mismatch
Integration
Dr. Diana Traikova 25
82
42
29 27
19 18 18
93 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90freq
uencies
Reasons to leave Bulgaria, N=249
Open question answers.
Dr. Diana Traikova 26
142
57
2316
7 61 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
family patriot optimistfor BG
ownbusiness
good job own farm noavailablejobs
abroad
no moneyto leave
freq
uencies
Reasons to stay in Bulgaria, N=253
Open question answers.
Dr. Diana Traikova, IAMO 27
Take home message
• If at all, only few graduates would come to work as skilledfarmers in rural Germany. (about 50 persons per year max!)
• Main migration motives aremoney and skills improvement.
• Biggest perceived obstacles are insufficient languageproficiency, skills mismatch and fear of difficult integration.
Dr. Diana Traikova, IAMO 28
Further details and country report
www.alfa‐agrar.de
Thank you!
Dr. Diana Traikova
IAMO
Email: [email protected]
Dr. Diana Traikova 29
Message PLS Model
Economic motives
Attitude
Socialnorms
Perceived control
Instrumentalbarriers
SozialeBarrieren
Migrationintentions
Skills
MoneyBG unemployment
Prepare own farm
Be a manager
Family
LanguageAccommodation
Skills mismatch
Integration