IFEX-09: NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program

Eric W. UhlhornNOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX; Rogers et al., BAMS, 2006)

• IFEX is intended to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change by:

– Collecting observations that span the TC life cycle in a variety of environments• Pre-genesis• Rapid Intensification• Landfall

– Developing and refining measurement technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment

• SFMR surface winds• Doppler 3-D wind vector• IWRAP

– Improving the understanding of the physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle.

• Air-sea interactions• Convective-scale and microphysical processes

2009 Goals• Upper ocean observations

– Gulf of Mexico Loop Current variability through a joint NOAA/DoI MMS project

– Continue float/drifter deployments coordinated through CARCAH/53rd WRS

– Real-time AXBT data processing and transmission from P-3• Doppler winds

– Real-time processing and transmission from P-3– Available for inner-core data asssimilation

• SALEX/envrionmental interactions– Test observing proto-vortex “pouches” (easterly-waves) in pre-

genesis stage (PREDICT-2010 dry run)– Coordinate P-3 and G-IV observing capabilities

• Other– Landfall, SFMR, Rapid-intensity change

Summary – A Relatively Quiet Season

• Forward deployment to Barbados (12-22 Aug)– N43RF and N49RF– TS Ana (14-16 Aug.)– H Bill (18-21 Aug.)

• TS Danny from KMCF (25-28 Aug.) • Other

– Pre-season GoM AXBT (15 July)– Coyote UAS test (20 Sept.)– SFMR rain measurements (21 Sept.)

Ana

Date A/C T/O time Flt ID MissionDoppler

Analyses Dropsonde AXBT

14 Aug N49RF 20Z 090814N1 SALEX 19

15 Aug N43RF 20Z Canceled 20

15 Aug N49RF 20Z 090815N1 SALEX

16 Aug N43RF 08Z Canceled

16 Aug N49RF 08Z Canceled

16 Aug N43RF 20Z 090816I1 SALEX/TDR 2 16

18 Aug N43RF 08Z Canceled

TS Ana 16-18 AugustN49RF N43RF

E. Blake, NHC

Saharan Air Layer

Saharan Air Layer

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

5a

6a7b

4a3a

2a

1a8a

7a

3b

Ana 090914N1

BillDate A/C T/O time Flt ID Mission

Doppler Analyses Dropsonde AXBT

18 Aug N43RF 08Z Canceled

18 Aug N49RF 08Z 090818N1 SALEX 25

18 Aug N43RF 20Z 090818I1 TDR 3 39

18 Aug N49RF 20Z 090818N2 SALEX 27

19 Aug N43RF 08Z 090819I1 TDR 4 22

19 Aug N49RF 08Z 090819N1 SALEX 20

19 Aug N43RF 20Z 090819I2 TDR 4 24

19 Aug N49RF 20Z 090819N2 SALEX 18

20 Aug N43RF 08Z 090820I1 TDR 2 14

20 Aug N49RF 08Z 090820N1 SALEX 24

20 Aug N43RF 20Z 090820I2 TDR 21

20 Aug N49RF 1730Z 090820N2Syn.

Surv./NHC 33

21 Aug N49RF 1730Z 090821N1Syn.

Surv./NHC 27

Hurricane Bill 18 – 21 August

L. Avila, NHC

Bill 090818N2

Environmental Interactions

1 km alt. 3 km alt.

Tail Doppler Radar – Bill 090819I1

DannyDate A/C Flight ID T/O Mission Doppler

AnalysesDropsonde AXBT

25 Aug N49RF 090825N1 20Z SALEX 21

25 Aug N43RF 090825I1 Cancelled

26 Aug N43RF 090826I1 08Z TDR 3 12 10

26 Aug N49RF 090826N1 1730Z Syn. Surv./NHC

29

27 Aug N43RF 090826I2 20Z TDR 3 13 10

27 Aug N43RF 090827I1 08Z TDR 3 16 19

27 Aug N49RF 090827N1 1730Z Syn. Surv./NHC

28

27 Aug N43RF 090827I2 20Z TDR 3 15 19

28 Aug N43RF 090828I1 08Z TDR 1 2 19

TS Danny 26-28 August

Environmental Interactions – Danny 090825N1

• 2

• 1

• 4

• 2a• 1a

• 2c

• 2

• 3

• 5• 6

• 7

• 1b

• 2b• 3a

• 3b

• 3c

• 4a

• 5a• 6a• 6b

• 8

• 7a

• 090825n (with changes): near take-off

Danny 090826I2

Danny 090826I2 Vortex-scale observations2242-2556 UTC Aug. 26

850 hPa drops

850 hPa drops

700 hPa drops

700 hPa drops

500 hPa drops

500 hPa drops

Other Missions

• Pre-season Gulf of Mexico AXBT ocean survey• Coyote UAS test flight• SFMR rain observations• (Hurricane Ida)

AXBT Gulf of Mexico Survey

Coyote UAS Test Flight 090920I1 • Fill existing low altitude data void in hurricanes • Safely provide continuous observations of T,P,V, q below 200ft

– Unique measurements of near-surface winds in the eyewall.

– Possible early detection of a rapid intensity change process as ‘loitering’ in the eye takes place.

SFMR mission• Support JHT project• Improve SFMR surface wind accuracy

by improving rain modeling– Obtain SFMR Tb measurements in

convective rain– Relate absorprtion coefficient to rain

rate measurements

Current Absorp. Coef. Data

A look ahead to 2010

– Continuation of IFEX objectives– ~700 hours total for all aircraft– N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF

available early August, N49RF (G-IV) available early June

– Coordinate with NSF/PREDICT and NASA/GRIP experiments

• IFEX goal 1: collecting observations spanning lifecycle– Doppler radar– Synoptic surveillance– HWRFx real-time runs– HFIP real-time runs

• IFEX goal 2: new and improved measurement technologies– SFMR evaluations– Ocean winds/AWRAP

• IFEX goal 3: improving understanding– Genesis– SAL/vortex interactions– Rapid Intensity Change

• Landfall coordination• Ocean Observations

Focus areas for 2010

Acknowledgments

• AOC• NHC• NPS