18 February 2013

Produced for U.S. Africa Command by:

Arthur AnalystAmy AnalystAndy AnalystAnnie Analyst

IGAD: LACKING UNITY BUT LIKELY TO SUPPORTIVE AFRICOM

Executive SummaryKey FindingsDiscussion

Intergovernmental Authority on Development

DjiboutiSomaliaSudanUganda

OVERVIEW

Most IGAD members are likely to support AFRICOM mission despite lack of unity

between members and instability in Sudan.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

IGAD: Unlikely to be unified, but likely to support Security operations in Somalia Peace negotiations in Sudan Economic development

Djibouti: Likely to support Base of operations for security

missions Facilitating diplomatic relations Building economic cooperation

KEY FINDINGS

Djibouti’s location is ideal for CT operations in Yemen and Somalia and anti-piracy in the Gulf of AdenSources: Inset - http://tinyurl.com/azlgv5m Large - http://tinyurl.com/3uluzjk

Somalia: Likely to support AMISOM security operations Delivery of public services Reform of economic and judicial

systems Re-establishing diplomatic and

economic ties

Sudan: Unlikely to support Struggling with security and stability

issues

Uganda: Likely to support Direct military support for security

missions Continuing IGAD leadership

KEY FINDINGS

President Hassan (left) and Secretary of State Clinton (right) at the press conference announcing the US recognition of Somalia. Source: http://tinyurl.com/apafxgf .

DISCUSSION - IGAD

Unlikely to provide unified support to AFRICOM

Internal conflict restrains effectiveness

Somalia is an area of focus

Djiboutian soldiers supporting the AMISOM mission in the Somali town of Belet WeyneSource: http://amisom-au.org/djibouti/

DISCUSSION - DJIBOUTI

Ideal location for counterterrorism and antipiracy missions

Troop support to AMISOM

Facilitator for diplomatic relations among IGAD members

Economic growth is key to regional stability

Camp Lemonier in Djibouti provides AFRICOM a critical base of operations in the Horn of AfricaSources: Camp - http://tinyurl.com/ao2tfcv Inset - http://tinyurl.com/af2cxc8

DISCUSSION - SOMALIAPledged support to

AFRICOM and IGAD missions

Using international assistance to provide public services

New constitution and government

Rapprochement with other IGAD member states

Southern Somalia: recent government-allied advances against Al Shabaab

Source: Maps by Evan Centanni, Eric Gaba, and TheEmirr. (license: CC BY-SA) http://tinyurl.com/a9qrq7z.

DISCUSSION - SUDANHampered by

domestic security and stability issues

Economic downturn due to decrease in oil sales

Border violence with rebel groups

Refused IGAD meditation for negotiations with South Sudan

Disputed border areas and conflicts during 2012.

Source: http://tinyurl.com/bbrwgo2.

DISCUSSION - UGANDA

Well-trained military

Key to fight against LRA in South Sudan

Provides significant troop support to AMISOM

Active leadership role in IGAD

U.S. Marine training Ugandan Soldier (Kampala, Uganda)

Source: http://www.africom.mil/NEWSROOM/Article/8863/us-marine-corps-forces-africa-partners-with-uganda

Analytic confidence is high

Source reliability is very high

Analysts’ expertise is high

Time available for task was adequate

ANALYTIC CONFIDENCE

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Contact Information:

Djibouti: Arthur Analyst Email: aa@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

Somalia: Amy Analyst Email: aa2@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

Sudan : Andy Analyst E-Mail: aa3@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

Uganda : Any Analyst Email: aa4@lakers.mercyhurst.edu

QUESTIONS?

Jane’s Information Group. (2012). North Africa Security Assessment. Jane’s Sentinel, 31. (Reliability: 48.08, Very High. Accessed January 2013)

http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-lays-bare-reservations-over,42468 (Reliability:47.94, Very High. Accessed February 2013)

http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/countries/east-africa/djibouti/ (Reliability: 43.79, High. Accessed January 2013)

http://www.igad.int/attachments/559_COMMUNIQUE%20OF%20THE%2046th%20IGAD%20EXTRAORDINARY%20COUNCIL%20MINISTERS.pdf. (Reliability: 52.88, Very High. Accessed February 2013)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-expands-secret-intelligence-operations-in-africa/2012/06/13/gJQAHyvAbV_story_3.html (Reliability: 52.8, Very High. Accessed February 2013)

PRIMARY REFERENCES

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16969483 (Reliability: 52.09, Very High. Accessed January 2013)

http://sabahionline.com/en_GB/articles/hoa/articles/newsbriefs/2013/01/21/newsbrief-07 (Reliability: 48.31, Very High. Accessed January 2013)

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/opinion/hope-and-lessons-in-somalia.html?_r=0 (Reliability: 42.77, High. Accessed January 2013)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/africa/2013-01/27/c_132130154.htm (Reliability: 39.09, Medium. Accessed February 2013)

PRIMARY REFERENCES

http://news.sudanvisiondaily.com/details.html?rsnpid=209843 (Reliability: 46, High. Accessed February 2013)

http://news.yahoo.com/african-mediators-press-sudans-end-stand-off-151428704.html (Reliability: 47, High. Accessed February 2013)

http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1257300/-/bhytjgz/-/index.html (Reliability: 48.36, High. Accessed February 2013)

http://www.africom.mil/Newsroom/Article/8495/ugandan-press-delegation-visits-us-africa-command- (Reliability: 52.88, Very High. Accessed January 2013)

PRIMARY REFERENCES