IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS, VOL. SMC-6, NO. 3, MARCH 1976 161

JIASA: Developing a Research StrategyHOWARD RAIFFA

T HREE YEARS AGO, on October 4, 1972, represen- methodology of applied systems analysis;tatives from distinguished scientific organizations in energy systems;

twelve nations met in London to create the International water resources;Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). In doing integrated industrial systems;so, they established a center for scientists from many ecological systems;nations to work together on complex problems. Their management of urban and regional systems;action was the fruition of a series of multinational negotia- biomedical systems;tions that began in 1967. computer systems and computer science; andThe rhetoric surrounding the signing of the Charter was design and management of large organizations.

optimistic, but the tasks ahead were difficult: the delinea- The nine areas are not as disparate as they might seem attion of a research strategy; proof to ourselves and others first glance. We knew that if we were to look thoroughlythat an international, multidisciplinary research center at the systems aspects of any problem, we would needwould work; and demonstration that it could promote the experts from each of those fields. Each area was of interest totechniques and application of systems analysis and thereby a number of our National Member Organizations (NMO's),increase cooperation among the nations represented in the and the priorities of each NMO were included somewheremembership. We had no precedents. We were on a frontier in the program.of science as well as of institutionalized detente. As we began to implement research in each area, we madeNow, three years later, we have a base of experience from a conscious effort to be flexible and experimerntal. An in-which we can evaluate our initial research strategy, insti-

tute some midcorse guidance, nd frame plansforth stitution with no failures would be much less innovat'ivetute some midcourse guidance, and frame plans for the than we should have been or should be. We were willing tofuture. In the following paragraphs, I shall describe the ad various re e n resh m eme stlein

evoltioof reearc stateg fo IISA adopt various research and research management styles inevolution of a research strategy for IIASA. the projects. We wanted to learn more about IIASA'sWhen we chose the name "International Institute for potential, and we were striving to find the unique contri-

Applied Systems Analysis" we considered systems analysis bution IIASA could make to science, and to internationalnot as a technique or set of techniques but as an approach problem-solvingto problem-solving. Our approach includes careful definition In retrospect, our approach was right. It has permittedof a problem and its bounds, the objectives of the policy- us, in only two years, to realize promising scientific results.maker, and the alternatives he faces. Our job is not to make When we started to implement a research plan, we startedthe decision, but to organize the available information so from strength. Early in our negotiations, I had enjoyedas to enable the decision-maker to evaluate his alternatives several long discussions with Wolf Haefele, a distinguishedand meet his objectives effectively. nuclear physicist from the Federal Republic of Germany.During the planning meetings that immediately followed Deeply concerned about the energy options available in the

the signing of the Charter, it was virtually impossible to long term-in the year 2000-and the systems implicationsachieve a consensus on one or two major research areas of those options, Prof. Haefele longed to initiate anfor IIASA. The individuals present and the institutions international effort to systematize existing knowledge andand groups they represented had very different ideas about formulate a methodology for comparison of options. Knowl-how IIASA's research program should be structured. -edge was fragmented, pockets of technical expertise existedFurthermore, there were no guidelines to help us narrow the in each country, and a coordinator of existing research wasfield. No one knew which projects would succeed; which sorely needed. With Prof. Haefele as leader, IIASA com-would founder. We could not predict the institutional and menced on a project to provide that coordination.scientific barriers that might arise to prevent even the I believe our decision was wise. By the end of 1974, we hadbest conceived plan from succeeding. We had few notions almost completed a comprehensive description ofthe nuclearof which scientists we would be able to recruit during option, with special emphasis on environmental effects, andour first two or three years. had begun phasing in an analysis of solar power. This year,As a result, our rather complex negotiations yielded a we have begun actual comparison of the nuclear and solar

portfolio of interrelated projects. The portfolio included options and started work on coal and other fossil fueloptions. By 1976, we shall be ready to examine the geo-

Manuscript received September 29, 1975. thermal option.The author is with the International Institute for Applied Systems By no means have we attempted to perform all of the

Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, on leave from the Kennedy School of aayi igehnel.Orsinii tf nLxnugiGovernment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA. aayl lgehnel.Orslnli tf nLxnugi

162 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS, MARCH 1976

small, and it could not accomplish the task alone. Indeed, what to do, we want to help them find better ways ofeven if the staff were many times as large, we would not achieving what they feel is desirable". As the implemen-want to do all the research at IIASA. Our aim is to avoid, tation phase proceeds, IIASA will develop a case studynot proliferate, duplication of research. We try to coordi- from which not only techniques but problem solvingnate existing efforts, to "fill in the gaps," and to insure that approaches can be transferred to other settings.the physicists communicate at least indirectly with the As I indicated in my discussion of the Ecology project, aenvironmentalists. Thus much of our work is decentralized. primary task of our methodologists has been to assist theFor instance, in the comparison of fusion and fission tech- other projects with their methodological problems: model-nologies, Prof. Haefele cooperates with senior scientists at ing, statistical validation and inference, experimentalthe Kurchatov Institute ofAtomic Energy in Moscow. During design, optimization, and policy analysis. During our firstour first energy planning meeting, experts from each NMO two years, several methodological themes common to thecited thermal pollution as a serious, long-term issue. To applied projects have emerged: analysis with multiple,examine it more closely, we have been able to use a complex conflicting objectives; the resolution of conflicts; and theclimatic model developed by the British Meteorological notions of stability and resilience. These themes have re-Office. Quantitative investigations have been monitored ceived most of our methodologists' attention.and partially guided by scientists from the National Center As we examine the alternatives for solving problems, wefor Atmospheric Research (USA) and the Hydro-Meteoro- find that, in most cases, there is not a single attribute orlogical Institute (USSR). Numerical simulation experiments performance characteristic that the decision-maker wouldwere conducted using computers at Karlsruhe, FRG. like to monitor. In fact, there are often several, and improvedOur work on risk perception is performed jointly with a performance of some of them comes only at the expense of

team at the International Atomic Energy Agency. Our task performance of others. The problem gets even more com-force on the estimation of international coal resources plicated when we consider not only how different perform-includes representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey, ance measures evolve over time, but their stochasticBritish Coal Board, Ostrawa Coal Authority (Czechoslo- characteristics. The central issue is: Can one systematicallyvakia), and Ruhrkokle AG (FRG). find an appropriate utility function defined over a multi-

I believe our energy project is a source of pride for IIASA. dimensional space?We are performing important research, and we are bridging Currently, there is a great deal of research being donegaps between East and West and among disciplines. on the multiattribute problem, and approaches vary greatly.A different research approach has been followed in our The techniques of decision analysts are quite different from

ecology work. The aim of that research has been to develop those of scientists working in the tradition of psychometricsa new science of ecological management. Here again, IIASA and econometrics. At IIASA, we want to compare ap-provides the intellectual "value-added". Good examples of proaches in the framework of some prototypal appliedecological modeling exist; care has been taken to deal problems. As a result, we hope to identify techniqueswith problems of validation and inference. However, little particularly useful to decision-makers who must balancesophisticated attention has been devoted to determining various objectives in confronting complex problems.how well the validated models can be used by ecological One does not have to look far for problems in which themanagers. This attention is what the IIASA project team resolution of conflict between interest groups or nationsadds. is a central issue. A typical example is the case where

In conjunction with methodologists who can incorporate industries upstream pollute and citizens downstream mustecological models into a decision making context, the suffer the consequences. Nearly all of our applied projectsecology group focuses on case studies which highlight have been forced to grapple with similar issues, and themethodology and problems of implementation. The case question for our methodologists is: Are there techniquesstudies themselves are specific to particular countries, or approaches which can help us formulate guide-linesbut we attempt to generalize techniques from them to for dealing with such situations?ecological problems faced by many countries. The body of knowledge that comes closest to providingThe first case study is forest management in New Bruns- such guidelines is the classical theory of games. However,

wick, Canada. Here, forests are plagued by periodic infesta- the focus of most game theory is the way an individualtions of the spruce budworm. Management has focused on player can maximize his own interest when in conflict withselective cutting and spraying, and our project group de- others. What we want to discover at IIASA is a frameworksigned its analysis to help answer the complex of questions: fcr creating new alternatives. I believe that careful analysishow much to cut, in which area, and at what time intervals? of the values and probabilistic beliefs of the conflicting

In essence, the budworm study became a laboratory for parties might suggest options for joint gains that hadexperimentation in optimizing techniques, in balancing previously been overlooked. Through a better understandingseveral conflicting objectives and in analyzing intergener- of the beliefs and priorities of the conflicting parties, weational tradeoffs. The study has yielded methodological should be better prepared to generate imaginative alter-breakthroughs in utility analysis, and the IIASA team, natives for compromise.under the direction of Prof. C. S. Holling, is now presenting The notions of stability and resilience are enticing, andthe results to government and industry officials. In his we believe that they may offer exciting new approaches towords, "We do not want to tell the people ofNew Brunswick systems studies. Tjalling Koopmans, former leader of our

RAIFFA: ITASA: DEVELOPING A RESEARCH STRATEGY 163

methodology project, is a mathematical economist familiar written by IIASA staff and outside contributors. The serieswith recent work on numerical algorithmic methods of find- will focus on both the techniques and application of systemsing fixed points and stable sets ofdynamic economic models. analysis in a format designed for a wide audience, includingHe believes that those techniques can be of use in similar practitioners in government and industry. In the nearmodels in climatology, meteorology, oceanography, and future we will supplement the series with a comprehensiveecology. This summer IIASA hosted a workshop to which "Handbook of Applied Systems Analysis". General activi-we invited experts from each of those fields. After a week of ties, our eleventh area, has been our mechanism for explor-cautious introduction, Koopmans' belief proved true, and ing topics which we did not feel prepared to include asthe economists did provide insights into noneconomic projects in the formal program. In 1975, food and agri-models and vice versa. We would like to continue such culture, as well as an ongoing review of global modeling,interchange at IIASA, in the hope of finding algorithms that have been the focal points of this effort.will help us organize our knowledge about complex systems Amid our successes, we have also experienced some dis-and explain their behavior. appointments. We have identified areas for improvement.

There have been practically endless debates at IIASA as In too many instances, our research has not been closeto whether the ecologists' notion of resilience differs from enough to decision-making: we have worked too often forthe relatively well-defined concept of stability. Prof. Holling imagined rather than real clients. Our research teams havedefines resilience as a systems' ability to absorb unexpected tended to be too tightly organized around areas of specialshock. Operationally, he interprets his concept very dif- interest. Assembling scientists from many nations or dis-ferently from those control theorists who prove stability ciplines in one institute does not insure integration acrosstheorems. The ecologists have observed that ecological either national or disciplinary boundaries. The Urbansystems which endure are those which are varied. They scholars may still tend to be geographers and demographers;are systems that are safe despite failures, not those which the Energy scientists, physicists and engineers. To recruitare designed to be safe from failures. The concept has scientists from many disciplines and countries to workpervaded almost all applied work at IIASA, and it implies together on a single problem requires careful attentionvery different perspective on some old suppositions about and direction. It is not a trivial issue in research manage-the behavior of systems. What we will attempt in the ment. Personally, I believe that to achieve integrationfuture is a precise methodological definition of resilience, in eleven project areas, with 75 scientists and finite re-identification of resilience indicators, and tests of applica- sources, is practically impossible. To build policy analysisbility to other problem areas. teams which truly straddle national and disciplinary

Ecology, Energy, and Methodology are our research pro- boundaries, given the constraints we face as a relativelyjects with the longest histories, but they are not the only small institute, is more easily achieved with two or threeendeavors to yield success. Our Water group is completing major research programs rather than with eleven.work on river basin management that has drawn to the Of course, the ensuing paradox is that to concentrate isforefront questions of resolving international conflicts to run the risk of narrowing, rather than broadening, thesurrounding shared resources. Scholars in our Industrial areas of technical expertise represented on the staff. Howgroup recently completed an international survey of steel can we maintain or expand technical expertise whileproduction which enabled experts from many countries to concentrating research effort?compare experiences and latest management techniques. The answer we have chosen is the selection of no moreUrban scientists are preparing "packages" of models to than two or three major research programs, which togetherassist decision-makers in evaluating policies which influence would account for approximately 50 percent of our totalsettlement patterns. In Computer Science, research on research budget. The remaining 50 percent would be devotedplanning and management of international networks is to independent research on the part of experts from manyunder way. The Large Organizations project is sponsoring fields-with particular emphasis on tasks proposed jointlya series of retrospective case studies of large-scale planning by two or three of them. We want to encourage the syner-in order to evaluate approaches to integrated systems gistic combinations of individuals that often produceplanning in a geographical region. The first case study, of innovation.the Tennessee Valley Authority, began with a conference The "nonprogram" staff would be organized into areas:which brought scientists and managers from East and West perhaps system and decision sciences; natural resources andtogether to analyze common problems. The conference will environment; human settlement and systems; managementbe followed this year by a similar analysis of the develop- and technology. All of our current tasks could fit into onement of the Bratsk-Ilim region of Siberia. In the Biomedical of the areas, and, of course, new tasks can be added.project, research is proceeding on crucial elements in public The research programs would cut across each researchhealth systems-screening procedures, for instance-in area conceptually and practically. The resulting matrixorder to generate improved methods for public health organization will test our managerial skills and require amanagement. creative tension between areas and programs. The areasTo the nine-areas included in the original portfolio, we must contribute manpower and methodological innovations

have added two activities. In our Survey Materials project, to the programs, which will serve to focus our research.we have organized the publication of a series of monographs Our aim in selecting topics for a program is to select aon the State of the Art of Applied Systems Analysis, to be set of issues that will necessarily exploit our multidis-

164 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS, MARCH 1976

ciplinary, international character. A topic for major con- small and well-contained that we can discover and definecentration should draw on scientists and experiences in systematic relationships with specificity. At IIASA, univer-different fields and different countries. To do this ade- sal studies are under way in almost all of our projects. Inquately, at least one topic should be "global" in nature; designing a major research program, our objective is toat least one "universal". We define a global problem as integrate this work through specific case studies into aone which is faced jointly by many nations and can be program of integrated regional development. Currently,solved only by their coordinated action. Certainly, energy research teams in the Southwestern United States, theis a global problem, as is food and agriculture and the law Soviet Union, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africaof the sea. are concerned with the problems of planning comprehensive

All of these topics could be major research areas for development of geographic regions.IIASA, but in the near future, energy and food and agricul- Perhaps IIASA researchers can enter into second-orderture will receive most attention. Our energy work has consulting relationships with several of them, utilizing ourreached a threshold of scientific and policy relevance that interdisciplinary staff to highlight common methodologicalrenders it the leading candidate for our first major global problems and facilitate the natural learning that can occurprogram. Interest in the research is high in our NMO from exchange and comparison of experiences. Much cancountries and among national and international agencies be learned about the integration of industrial, energy,concerned with energy policy. IIASA has an opportunity environmental, health, transportation, and commercialto produce a useful, important product, and energy will subsectors in a comprehensive analysis. IIASA is the placecontinue to figure prominently in our research plan for the where the necessary methodology can and should benext year or two. developed.

Simultaneously, we will explore the dimensions of the Discussions of planning, whether of programs oriented tocurrent food problem and the state of the art of inter- global or to universal problems, should not obscure anational policy research on food and agriculture. Food continuing need for flexibility at IIASA. We must be freepolicy decisions are complex, and the systems aspects are to initiate research tasks-in much the same way as wecrucial. Policies in various countries must be coordinated, initiated our original projects-on an experimental basis. Weand planning must take account of distributional, economic, must look for critical research milestones, admit failurefiscal, and social, as well as technical, factors. I believe when it occurs, and be willing to reward success with in-there is a unique research role for IIASA in food and creased resources. In the management of research atIIASA,agriculture. As our planning momentum increases in 1976, flexibility is a guiding principle. We must be able to meetI believe we will define the challenges of that role and begin research opportunities when they arise, and we shouldto meet them. actively explore frontiers in many areas to discover thoseAs great as the opportunities for global research are, they opportunities.

should not be construed as a closed set of opportunities In three years, we have witnessed as many research stylesfor IIASA. Indeed, as we plan for the Institute, we will as we have hired research leaders. The lessons from ouralso include problems universal in nature-those problems experiment cannot be formalized into rigid researchfaced by policy-makers individually in their unique na- protocols. Our major lesson is that we must balance con-tional or regional contexts. Forest management and pro- tinuity and depth with trial and error. It is the balance that,vision of municipal services are universal problems. In once achieved, will enable us to continue movingexamining them, our geographic laboratory is sufficiently forward.