IIASA Overview and Integrated Research
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director General and Deputy CEOInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisProfessor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
AMAP-IIASA Arctic Scenarios WorkshopIIASA, Laxenburg – 19-20 May 2014
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A GLOBAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Established as a scientific bridge between East and West
After Cold War ended focused on multiple dimensions of global change
Now embarked on the new research strategy for the next decade
2014 #3NakicenovicSources: US Department of Interior, IIASA
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International, independent, interdisciplinary science
research & big-data on major global problems
Solution & policy oriented, integrated systems analysis
21 IIASA NATIONAL MEMBER ORGANIZATIONS
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IIASA researchers take part in 60 advisory boards and steering committees, including: UN Secretary General Technical Group on
Sustainable Energy for All Advisory Council of the German Government on
Global Change (WBGU) Scientific Steering Group of the UNEP Black
Carbon Assessment UN World Water Scenarios UN Food and Agriculture Organization Land and
Water Division
IIASA AS THE EXPERT ADVISOR
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Food &
Water
Poverty &
Equity
Energy &
Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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Food &
Water
Poverty &
Equity
Energy &
Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE:BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES
1976 1981 1994 2000
RAINS helps cut
sulfur dioxide
2010
MESSAGE has helped over 80 countries with
energy planning
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FOOD & WATER:BUILDING ON PAST SUCCESSES
1975 1986 2002 2002
Database of Russian
forest and land
resources
2004
Shrinking Fish
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Major Challenges of AnthropoceneThe industrial revolution led to unprecedented
levels of affluence and production, but also inequity;
The unintended consequences demonstrate significant impacts on our social and natural environments transcending planetary boundaries;
Overcoming these formidable global challenges requires science-based, integrated and systemic approaches for a fundamental transformation toward sustainability
2014 #11Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MikrochipKommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
VakuumröhreOttomotor
ElektrischerMotor
Dampf-maschine
Nuklear-energie
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Global Primary Energy
2014 #12Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Global Primary Energy
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
2014 #13Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Global Water Withdrawalslim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Source: Frocko et al, 2014
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www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb
RESEARCH INTO POLICY (Example) 2006-12: Global Energy Assessment
involving 500 experts around the world 2009 to date: GEA provides critical input to
Un Secretary-General’s Sustainable Energy For All Initiative including defining the aspirational yet feasible objectives: 1. Ensure universal access to modern
energy services2. Double the global rate of
improvements in energy efficiency3. Double the share of renewable
energy in the global energy mix15
THANK YOU
WWW.IIASA.AC.AT
