IIASA’s Role in Addressing Major Global Challenges
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Deputy Director Markus Amann, Leader Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases (MAG) Program Michael Obersteiner, Leader Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)Program
Retreat of the UN EU Heads of Mission IIASA, Laxenburg – 8 February 2013
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Major Global Challenges
The industrial revolution led to unprecedented levels of affluence and production, but also inequity;
The unintended consequences demonstrate significant impacts on our social and natural environments transcending planetary boundaries.
Overcoming formidable global challenges requires scientific foundations for understanding, formulating effective response strategies and the multi-lateral cooperation for action plans forward.
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
2
Food for a Week, Displaced Family, Chad © 2007 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Food for a Week, German Family © 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY
Primary Education+
Secondary Education+
Global Educational Attainment
Source: Lutz et al. (2007)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diffusion of Democracy
Source: Modelski & Perry, 2002; 2010
Participatory
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diffusion of Democracy Slavery Abolishment
Source: Naki & Rogner, 2012; Modelski & Perry, 2002; 2010
Participatory
Abolishment
1863 United States
of America
1906 China
1948 UN Declaration
of Human Rights
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World
Source: Grubler, 2007
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Historical (UN)
IIASA SRES B1 scenario
IIASA SRES B2 scenario
IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World, UK, BRICs
Source: Grubler, 2007
UK
BRICs
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Data: NASA 1880-2010
Earth is Warming
Global warming predicted (Sawyer, Nature 1972,
Broecker, Science 1975)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
bal C
O2
emis
sion
s (G
tCO
2)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 IPCC Category I GEA - Efficiency
Global CO2 Emissions - (ATR) NoCCS, NoNuc
Peak by 2020
reductions of 35-75% by 2050
almost zero or negative in the long term
Global Carbon Emissions
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density
12
WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold
EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Policy background
EU climate policy has set emission reduction targets of 20% below 1990 levels in 2020 to be achieved through measures implemented by MS
EU climate policy has set renewable energy and biofuel targets for 2020 to be implemented by MS – Increased demand for bioenergy, timber, pulp
and paper will lead to a decline in the forest sink Decline in deforestation in the Brasilian Amazon
(0.47 Billion $) lead roughly to the same GHG savings as the Emission trading system (411 Billion $)
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
13
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Results: Baseline development
-500000
-450000
-400000
-350000
-300000
-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
FM e
mis
sion
s [G
g C
O2
per y
ear]
Projection Baseline G4M
Emissions from forest management (excl. deforestation and afforestation) In MtCO2 (GgCO2) per year for EU countries (excl. Cyprus, Greece and Malta)
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
14
Bottcher et al. 2012
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Integrated perspective to development of EU air quality legislation offered by IIASA’s GAINS model
GAINS used as the central analytical tool for: 1999: National Emission Ceilings Directive 2004: Clean Air For Europe Programme
Despite significant improvements in the past:
There is still scope for highly cost-effective measures in the EU, for which just the gains in labor productivity from better health exceed mitigation costs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Min
utes
per
wor
ker p
er y
ear
Ambition of emission control scenarios
Working time to pay for measures
Reduced absence from work
2013: Revision of Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution
H. Böttcher: From science to policy - how can research affect political decision making? YSSP 2012
Further gains from more integrated climate-air pollution strategies
0
25
50
75
100
125
National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)
Billi
on €
/yr
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation
0
25
50
75
100
125
National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)
Billi
on €
/yr
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation
0
25
50
75
100
125
National energy projections (+3% CO2 in 2020) Illustrative projections meeting the EU climatetarget (-20% CO2 in 2020)
Billi
on €
/yr
Indicative costs for changes in the energy system to meet climate and energy targets Costs for further measures to achieve the targets of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air PollutionCosts for implementing current air pollution legislation
Business as usual National energy projections
(+3% CO2 in 2020)
PRIMES energy scenario with climate measures
(-20% CO2 in 2020)
€20 bn/yr
Source: IIASA GAINS
Air pollution control costs for achieving the EU air quality targets
Co-benefits on health and air pollution control costs demonstrated by GAINS for •Climate & Energy Package, •EU 2050 Roadmap, •and other Commission climate proposals.
2013 #17 Nakicenovic
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Cos
ts (2
010-
2030
)
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals
●Universal Access to Modern Energy
●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
Legitimacy of BAU eroding
Vision: Sustainable Future
→ Growing number of actors of change:
• green businesses • cities • civil society • science • IGOs (UNIDO etc.)
Sustainability Transformation “Doing More with Less” within Boundaries
Time
Tran
sfor
mat
ion
Diff
usio
n
Source: WBGU, 2011
→ Increasing problem perception
→ Policy regimes
→ Values and norms
