IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA July 17-19, 2017 | Singapore

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2 KEY MACROECONOMIC TOPICS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

COURSE DESCRIPTION

IIF GLOBAL SEMINAR

Key Macroeconomic Topics and Forecasting in Emerging Economies This three-day seminar presents practical tools useful in

country analysis to help economists better assess a

country’s macroeconomic conditions and prepare

consistent forecasts for the real, fiscal, monetary, and

external sectors.

The program also includes a series of workshops in which

participants are divided into groups, under the guidance

of counselors, to implement the diagnostic and analytical

tools presented in the lectures and to develop consistent

forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators in Emerging

economies, particularly in Asia.

An impressive group of expert industry practitioners,

including IIF experts and former IMF staff members will

share their insights with participants.

This seminar is similar to a condensed version of the two-

week Financial Programming and Policies or

Macroeconomic Diagnostic courses offered by the IMF.

Class size will be kept small and the content is tailored to

fit participants’ interests.

This training course will be eligible for CPD/CE credits through the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI), the Chartered Banker Institute, the CFA Institute, the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), and the International Compliance Association (ICA).

PROGRAM FACTS

Date: July 17-19, 2017

Location: Singapore

Venue: DBS Auditorium, Marina Bay

Program Fee:

Member Firm $1,750 (USD)

Non-Member Firm $3,000 (USD)

REGISTER AT IIF.COM/

EVENTS

Registration is open up to

one week prior to the

program start date or until

capacity is reached.

Capacity limitations may

force some programs to

close registration early.

IDEAL FOR PROFESSIONALS WHO:

Provide advice on macroeconomic and financial policies

Work in economic research at financial institutions, hedge funds, central banks, ministry of finance, and work on country/sovereign risk or investment management

PLEASE JOIN US IN

SINGAPORE TO TAKE

ADVANTAGE OF THIS

UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Review the principal features of

the different accounts used in

macroeconomic analysis, and

the interrelations among these

accounts

Receive insights from leading

experts on the formulation of

internally-consistent forecasts

and financial programs

Participate in a country case

study with fellow participants

to analyze economic

challenges and develop

forecasts under the guidance

of experienced counselors

Network with global peers

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3 KEY MACROECONOMIC TOPICS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

MONDAY JULY 17

8:30 am—9:00 am REGISTRATION

9:00 am—9:15 am

SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program What you will learn on this course?

DBS speaker TBC Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, IIF

9:15 am—10:00 am SESSION 2: HOW DO WE GO ABOUT DOING PROJECTIONS Projecting growth Examples of inconsistency of forecast Schematic representation of inter-sectoral linkages

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF

10:00 am—11:00 am SESSION 3: INTERRELATIONS AMONG MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS Links between BOP and the fiscal sector Links between BOP and monetary survey Links between the fiscal sector and monetary sector Data consistency

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF

11:00 am—11:30 am COFFEE BREAK

11:30 am—12:30 pm SESSION 4: PROJECTING GDP AND COMPONENTS Estimating potential output using production function - Hodrick-Prescott filter of real GDP - Production function Growth accounting decomposition

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, MENA, IIF

12:30 pm—1:30 pm LUNCH

1:30 pm—2:30 pm SESSION 5: GUIDELINES FOR FORECASTING CPI AND THE GDP DEFLATOR Inflation drivers New Keynesian Phillips curve Yield curves and monetary policy Taylor rule Forecasting CPI inflation Forecasting the GDP deflator

Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, IIF

2:30 pm—3:00 pm COFFEE BREAK

3:00 pm—4:00 pm SESSION 6: FORECASTING THE CURRENT ACOOUNT Analytical presentation of the BOP Exports, imports and other current account components

Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, IIF

4:00 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 7: FORECASTING CAPITAL FLOWS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES Foreign direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment

Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, IIF

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TUESDAY JULY 18

KEY MACROECONOMIC TOPICS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

9:00 am—10:00 am SESSION 8: FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES IN EMERGING ASIA

Philip Wee Executive Director, Group Research, DBS

10:00 am—11:00 am SESSION 9: FORECASTING THE FISCAL ACCOUNTS Analytical presentation of the fiscal accounts Forecasting revenues Forecasting expenditures Country examples

Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

11:00 am—11:30 am COFFEE BREAK

11:30 am—12:30 pm SESSION 10: EXTERNAL AND FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY Key external indicators Assessing fiscal sustainability Debt-to-GDP dynamics How to stabilize debt Country examples

Garbis Iradian Chief Economist, MENA, IIF

12:30 pm—1:30 pm LUNCH

1:30 pm—2:30 pm SESSION 11: FORECASTING THE MONETARY SURVEY Analytical presentation of the monetary survey Forecasting net foreign assets, domestic credit, and other

items Forecasting broad money Country examples

Garbis Iradian Chief Economist, MENA, IIF

2:30 pm—3:30 pm SESSION 12: MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE OF EMERGING ASIAN ECONOMIES—OVERVIEW AND CHALLENGES Monetary and fiscal policies Exchange rate policy and assessment Key external indicators Structural reforms

Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

3:30 pm—4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK

4:00 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 13: OUTLOOK AND RISKS FOR CHINA Shifts in growth drivers Impact of aging, lower capital, and productivity growth Deleveraging and structural reforms China’s impact on emerging markets

David Carbon Chief Economist, DBS

5 KEY MACROECONOMIC TOPICS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

WEDNESDAY JULY 19

9:00 am—9:30 am SESSION 14: DISCUSSION ON COUNTRY CASES Prepare forecasts for 2017 and 2018 by sectors Assumptions: commodity prices, global growth Participants are expected to bring their own laptops

equipped with Excel and preferably EViews 9 (MS Windows compatible) to work on a macroeconomic framework of selected countries

Garbis Iradian Chief Economist, MENA, IIF

9:30 am—10:30 am SESSION 15: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS Forecast of real GDP growth Estimating potential growth Forecast of CPI and GDP deflator

Garbis Iradian Chief Economist, MENA, IIF Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

10:30 am—11:00 am COFFEE BREAK

11:00 am—12:00 pm SESSION 16: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT.) Forecast of government revenue Forecast of government spending

Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

12:00 pm—1:00 pm SESSION 17: FORECASTING KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY How Trump’s policies may effect the Mexican economy? Econometric techniques used at Banorte-Ixe Bank Channels of transmission of monetary policy using SVAR

Gabriel Casillas Managing Director and Chief Economist, Banorte-Ixe Bank, Mexico

1:00 pm—2:00 pm LUNCH

2:00 pm—3:30 pm SESSION 18: GROUP WORK ON THE COUNTRY CASE STUDY WITH HELP FROM COUNSELORS (CONT.) Forecast of the main components of the balance of

payments Forecasting the monetary survey

Garbis Iradian Chief Economist, MENA, IIF Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

3:30 pm—4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK

4:00 pm—5:00 pm SESSION 19: WRAP UP What have we learned over the three days—main

takeaways What are the areas where more focus is needed going

forward

Garbis Iradian Chief Economist, MENA, IIF Bejoy Das Gupta Chief Economist, Asia/Pacific, IIF

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SPEAKER PROFILES

KEY MACROECONOMIC TOPICS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

David Carbon, Chief Economist, DBS

David Carbon is the Chief Economist and Managing Director for Economic and Currency Research

at DBS Bank. He has more than 30 years’ of experience covering the economies & markets of Asia

and the G10 from Singapore, Hong Kong and London.

David began his banking career in Asia with JP Morgan and spent 5 years with WestLB AG in

London where headed their G10 economic and currency research team. After returning to Asia,

David was in 2012 voted the Best Economist in Southeast Asia in an investor poll conducted by

Alpha Southeast Asia.

Prior to his career in investment banking, Carbon taught international trade and finance at Fudan

University in Shanghai and at the Guangdong Engineering Institute in Guangzhou and was a

Fellow at the Korea Development Institute in Seoul.

David graduated Phi Beta Kappa from the University of Wisconsin and holds an MPhil in

economics from Yale University. He is fluent in Mandarin.

Bejoy Das Gupta, Chief Economist, Asia Pacific, Institute of International Finance

Dr. Bejoy Das Gupta has over twenty five years’ experience in the analysis of macroeconomic

policy, capital flows and financial sector; communicating research to bankers, asset managers and

senior officials; providing policy advice, leading missions, and organizing/participating in

conferences; and developing/maintaining high-level contacts with senior officials and the private

sector. He is Chief Economist for Asia/Pacific at the IIF, where he manages the economic analysis

for the region. In addition to responsibilities at the IIF, Dr. Das Gupta serves as Adjunct Professor

of the Maxwell School of Syracuse University’s Washington Program. He is also a Member of the

Board of the Mandiri Institute, which was established in May 2014 by Bank Mandiri, Indonesia’s

largest bank, to promote research on financial inclusion, deepening and entrepreneurship to

shape the public policy agenda. Prior to joining the IIF in 1993, Dr. Das Gupta served as

Economist for the International Lead and Zinc Study Group in London, an inter-governmental

commodity organization, and in investment banking with Grindlays Bank.

After graduating from the London School of Economics, he received M.Phil. and D.Phil. in

Economics from Christ Church, Oxford. He is a recipient of several prizes, including the AMEX

Bank Review Awards in International Economics and Finance in 1988. He was born in Kolkata,

India, where he completed his early education.

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SPEAKER PROFILES

KEY MACROECONOMIC TOPICS AND FORECASTING IN EMERGING ECONOMIES WITH A FOCUS ON ASIA

Garbis Iradian, Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa Department,

Institute of International Finance

Dr. Garbis Iradian has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of

MENA economies. He is currently the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa

Department at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF in 2008, he worked for 18 years at the International

Monetary Fund (IMF). While there he held the positions of senior economist and senior advisor to

an Executive Director where he monitored and assessed macroeconomic and financial

developments of several Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies.

Prior to joining the IMF he served as international economist at the Royal Bank of Canada and

taught macroeconomics and econometrics at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada. He

received his Ph.D. in Economics from Freiburg University, Germany after obtaining a masters

degree from the American University of Beirut. Iradian has published several articles and working

papers on sources of growth, income inequality, and economic challenges of MENA economies.

Philip Wee, Executive Director, Group Research, DBS Bank

Philip Wee co-manages macroeconomic and market research at DBS Group Research. His team

comprises of four economists and two strategists. Prior to joining DBS Bank in 2000, he was a

Treasury Economist at Standard Chartered Bank, and an Economist at NatWest Markets and HSBC.

In all, Philip has more than twenty years in analyzing economic and market trends in G3 and Asian

economies. In 2016, Philip was best remembered as the only economist who correctly predicted

Singapore ending its appreciating SGD policy in April. His Singapore dollar nominal effective

exchange rate (SGD NEER) model is closely followed by institutional clients. In the second half of

2016, Philip has been cautioning against excessive pessimism to the bank’s corporate, multinational

and institutional clients across Asia. Believing that a global cyclical recovery was underway, Philip

has been looking for commodities and world trade to bottom, upside surprises in growth and

inflation, and the US Fed to step up its rate hikes this year. Philip’s key research interests are global

imbalances and the integrity of the global financial system, the internationalization of the Chinese

yuan and the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Gabriel Casillas, Managing Director and Chief Economist Banorte-Ixe Bank, México

Gabriel Casillas (Managing Director) is currently Investor Relations Officer and Chief Economist at

Banorte-Ixe bank, based in Mexico City. He obtained his Ph.D. from Texas A&M University,

specializing in Monetary Theory, Econometrics, and Information Economics. Dr. Casillas previously

worked at J.P.Morgan as Chief Mexico Economist, as well as at UBS Investment Bank as Chief

Economist for México and Chile. He also worked at the Central Bank of Mexico in the economic

research department as well as in central banking operations division. He is a member of the select

group of “Future Leaders” of the IIF and Chairman of the Committee of Economic Studies of the

Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF). On the academic arena, Dr. Casillas has taught

several courses on Macroeconomic Theory, Monetary Economics, Finance Theory, and Financial

Derivatives, -among others-, at ITAM, Monterrey Tech, Endicott College, and Universidad Anáhuac

at both undergraduate and graduate levels. He has dictated several conferences about economics

and risk management in the US, Mexico, Canada, Europe, South America, and Asia. His academic

work has been published in the Journal of Economic Policy. He regularly reviews papers for

academic journals, attends and organizes conferences and workshops.

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