IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue

8/8/2019 IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue

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IISSnews De. 2009

Pressing threats to regional security, includ-

ing Irans nuclear programme and the conict in

Yemen involving Houthi rebels, were vigorously

discussed at the 6th IISS Regional Security Summit,

held in Manama, Bahrain from 11 to 13 December

2009.

Iran sent a strong delegation to the Manama

Dialogue. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Moaki

addressed the rst plenary session and caused a

urry of media stories when his answer to a ques-tion was interpreted as making a new oer in the

long-running international confrontation over the

countrys nuclear facilities.

The Yemen conict was the subject of lively

argument in a televised debate recorded at the

Dialogue by the Al-Arabiya network. As Saudi

Arabian ghter aircraft continued a campaign of

air strikes against guerrillas in the region bordering

northwest Yemen, the main question was whether

Iran was providing support to the Houthi rebels.

Ministers, military chiefs, ocials and experts

from many countries again took part in the

Manama Dialogue. The Crown Prince, Salman bin

Hamad Al Khalifa, hosted a dinner for ocial del-

egates on 12 December.John Chipman, IISS Director-General and Chief

Executive, announced that the Institute would

establish a regional oce in Bahrain in 2010. As

well as undertaking research activities, the oce

would help to ensure the annual IISS summit

serves the evident needs of the region for a more

wide-ranging, trans-regional and inclusive regional

security dialogue.

Current institutions and organisations do not

serve that purpose, and current freelance ad hoc

diplomacy does not provide the necessary coher-

ence to advance wider regional stability, Chipman

said. A forum that requires the regular assembly

of parties who are often in dispute or at conict

creates the possibilities for the planned discussions

that are a pre-condition to potential diplomatic rec-

onciliation.

Giving the Keynote Address to the opening

dinner, Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem

Al Sabah, Kuwaits Deputy Prime Minister and

The Manama Dialogue 2009

The Sixth IISS Regional Security Summit

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Nnpr iferatin Prramme . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Russia Eur asia Prr amme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

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P u i a t i n s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


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Minister of Foreign Aairs, expressed the hope

that the Manama Dialogue would provide such

a forum for many years to come. Members of

the Gulf Cooperation Council must, he said, join

forces to contain threats to their national security.

Their concept of preventive diplomacy involved

peaceful, transparent, good-neighbourly relations

that avoided the use of ideologies.

Al Sabah was particularly concerned about

the challenge posed by demographic changes,

including rapid population growth, the increase

in migrant worker numbers, and the fact that the

children of migrant workers were entering the

competition for jobs. He added that it was essen-

tial for Gulf countries to preserve their cultural

identities.

Iran

With the United States and other countries con-

sidering new sanctions against Iran because of

lack of progress in discussions on its nuclear

programme, the country provided a major

focus for the Dialogue. Some Gulf countries, in

particular the United Arab Emirates, have been

stepping up purchases of military equipment,

apparently because they perceive a heightened

threat.

In his speech, Moaki said Iran opposed nuclear

weapons.Questioned on the nuclear programme,

he noted that the Tehran research reactor had been

built with American help, and the Bushehr nuclear

power plant with French and German support.

But because all this help had been withdrawn, Iran

had determined to be self-sucient it needed

1015 nuclear plants for electricity generation.

Once bien, twice shy, Moaki said.

Responding to a question from Mark Fipatrick,

IISS Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation, Moaki

objected to suggestions that Iran had not

responded to a proposal discussed in Geneva in

October, under which Iran would ship 1,200kg of

enriched uranium out of the country, to be further

enriched into fuel for the Tehran reactor. Iran was

proposing a middle way to allow the exchange to

take place on the Iranian island of Kish in phases

of 400kg. Is not that a response? he asked. Why

are you pleading ignorance? Sanctions, he said,

were illegal and ineective, and Iran would not

give up its rights to develop nuclear capabilities.

While Washington soon indicated that it saw noth-

ing new in Moakis remarks, it remained to be

seen whether a deal such as that tentatively agreed

in Geneva might still be possible.

The concerns of other countries about Iran

were evident. Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin

Mohammed Al Khalifa, Bahrains Minister of

Foreign Aairs, said the biggest threat to the

region was the possibility of conict between

Israel and Iran over the nuclear programme. Lives

will be lost, vital resources will be put in jeopardy,

the world economy will undoubtedly suer and

all our eorts towards regional development and

prosperity will be signicantly hindered, Khalid

said.

Relations between Iran and its neighbours

needed to be improved. Khalid proposed several

condence-building measures: coordination of

responses on disaster risk reduction, for example

on severe dust storms; a regional development

programme providing expertise and assistance

in areas lacking basic resources; and regional

consultations to prevent a future regional nuclear

disaster.

Kuwaits Deputy Prime Minister Al Sabah said

Irans programme needed to follow the guidelines

of the International Atomic Energy Agency. If the

United Nations Security Council agreed on a new

round of sanctions, he said, this region is going

Dr John Chipman opens the summit Sheikh Dr Muhammad Al Sabah Al Salem Al Sabah delivers the Keynote Address

The Al-Arabiya debate (lr): Dr Mamoun Fandy, Jerey Feltman, Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalia,

and Ali Muhammad Al Anisi


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to enter into a period of tension. Iran is a major

player in the Gulf. Any tension with Iran would

reect on the relationship between the GCC and

Iran.

General David Petraeus, Commander, US

Central Command, said Irans posture had

prompted a warmer regional embrace of the

United States. Far from encountering a credibility

gap in the region as one questioner suggested

the US was strengthening its partnerships with

Gulf countries. The recruiting ocer for such

partnerships was Iranian President Mahmood

Ahmadinejad, Petraeus said. Over the past year,

the United Arab Emirates had ordered $18bn

worth of American defence equipment, includ-

ing Patriot missile baeries. He suggested that the

UAEs eet of F-16s would be able to take out the

Iranian air force.

Calling Iran a thugocracy, Petraeus said that

following the hijacked elections, Irans Supreme

Leader had resorted to using the Revolutionary

Guard and Basij militia to contain protests. This

ever-growing control over the levers of power

made it dicult to reach out to Iran and nd a

willing partner at the other end.

Regional conficts

The region is beset by several ongoing conicts.

Since 2004, the Manama Dialogue has provided an

annual snapshot of the war in Iraq, where the situ-

ation is now much improved but still fragile. The

2009 Dialogue took place days after US President

Barack Obama set out a new strategy to deal with

the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. While

the Dialogue discussed this situation in depth,

it was the are-up of conict in Yemen that rst

caught the aention of delegates.

Sporadic ghting has occurred for ve years

between Yemeni government forces and the Shia

Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia denies its bombing

raids in the mountainous border area have hit

targets across the border. Meanwhile, Iran denies

Yemeni government accusations that Iran is pro-

viding support to the Houthis.

Al-Arabiya, the Dubai-based television net-

work, made the conict the subject of its televised

debate on the rst evening of the Dialogue. Ali

Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman of Yemens

National Security Agency, said foreign interven-

tion had contributed to the outbreak of violence.

Jerey Feltman, Assistant Secretary for Near

Eastern Aairs in the US State Department, said

Washington did not have independent information

to support allegations of Iranian interference, but

supported the government in its eorts against the

insurgency. Mamoun Fandy, IISS Senior Fellow

for Gulf Security and Corresponding Director,

IISSMiddle East, made fun of the tendency to

allege foreign intervention without specically

naming Iran; he referred instead to intervention

by Martians. An Iranian ocial denied his coun-

try was helping the Houthis, and quoted love

poetry to emphasise the close ties between Tehran

and Sanaa. Sheikh Khalid, the Bahraini Foreign

Minister, said Yemens stability was vital and it

was necessary to support the government there.

The other panellists agreed: in Fandys view, there

was a risk of Yemen becoming a failed state, and

the situation posed a real challenge to the security

of the entire Gulf region.

The worsening conict in Afghanistan has

been of primary concern to policymakers and

military chiefs in all Manama Dialogue participant

nations throughout the year. Karl Eikenberry,

a frequent participant in IISS events as a gen-

eral and now US Ambassador to Afghanistan,

intervened from the oor to explain aspects of

President Obamas December announcement

that 30,000 more American troops would be sent.

There were several aims: to break the momentum

of the Taliban-led insurgency, to signal American

resolve, and to move towards the comprehensive

strategy integrating military and civilian eorts

that NATO had embraced. While the mid-2011

date for the beginning of the US troop withdrawal

was rm, the drawdown would depend on con-

ditions and on the growing aspirations of Afghan

security forces. To the clear-hold-build approach

had been added the crucial word transfer, and

eorts were focused on creating conditions in

which this could be done. The new policy would

thus have a forcing function.

Manouchehr Mottaki, Foreign Minister, Iran

Hoshyar Zebari, Minister o Foreign Aairs, Iraq

Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Bin Mohammed Al Khalia,

Minister o Foreign Aairs, Bahrain

Vecdi Gnl, Minister o Deence, Turkey


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Masoom Stanekzai, adviser to President Hamid

Karzai on Home Security, said the governments

new approach put stress on taking more responsi-

bility for the security of Afghanistan, building the

capacity of the Afghan institutions, and ghting

corruption. He welcomed the strategy of General

Stanley McChrystal, the American commander,

to protect the population. But he drew aention

to severe problems such as drugs and endemic

poverty, which drew young unemployed men

towards extremism. Regional cooperation was

essential: There is a lot of discussion and lot of

good will, but there is a need for improved action

on the ground, he said. An increasing number

of youths from the border region with Pakistan

were nding jobs in the Gulf. Using their income

to support their families, they gradually distance

themselves from extremist groups and contribute

to the well-being of the population in those areas.

This showed scope for regional cooperation to

change the dynamics of the insurgency.

Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi,

Pakistans Minister of Foreign Aairs, said the

past eight years had seen an inordinate focus on

military solutions, with reconstruction eorts not

improving the lot of ordinary Afghans. Pakistan

welcomed Obamas recent announcement and

his rearmation of partnership with Islamabad.

However, he said clarity and coordination was

needed on implementation of the strategy and he

looked forward to engagement ensure there was

no adverse eect on Pakistan.

Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State

Secretary to the Minister of Defence, Germany,

said much progress had been made in Afghanistan

since 2001, but the security situation had deterio-

rated considerably, including in the North where

Germany had responsibility. Based on the out-

come of the international conference planned for

January in London, Germany and other European

countries would reconsider their levels of civil and

military commitment.

Amid the renewed eorts to end the conict

in Afghanistan, there were continuing worries

about the sustainability of hard-won progress in

Iraq. Hoshyar Zebari, Minister of Foreign Aairs,

recalled that before the era of Saddam Hussein,

Iraq had a positive impact on the Gulf, ourishing

culturally and economically as a regional trend-

seer. We are now working hard to return Iraq

to the stability and prosperity it enjoyed before its

downward spiral, so that it can play the role we

want it to play in promoting stability, security and

prosperity in the Gulf, Zebari said. Out of conict

had come new skills, such as the expertise of spe-

cial operations forces in combating terrorists and

insurgents. These, he said, were key elements in

expanding security in Iraq: following the American

withdrawal, there would be no security vacuum

to be lled by any external players. The coming

elections in March 2010, he said, would determine

Iraqs future, fate and course for years to come.

Vecdi Gnl, Minister of Defence, Turkey,

agreeing that the Iraqi elections were of paramount

importance, said Kirkuk was a source of concern,

and a selement acceptable to all groups there was

essential to ensure stability. Zebari said relations

with Turkey were improving, with various agree-

ments reached, but we get sensitive when we see

Kazuya Shinba, Senior Vice Minister or Deence, Japan

Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Minister o Foreign

Aairs, Pakistan

M.K. Narayanan, National Security Adviser to the Indian

Prime Minister

Masoom Stanekzai, Adviser to the President on Home

Security, Aghanistan

Christian Schmidt, Parliamentary State Secretary to the

Minister o Deence, Germany


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our neighbours trying to interject ourselves on how

this country could be run or elected or governed.

Kirkuk was an Iraqi city, and the Iraqi people had

to decide its future.

Answering a question, Zebari said there had

been serious problems in supply of water to Iraq

from both Turkey and Iran. New agreements were

necessary between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. On

a recent series of car bombs in Iraq, Zebari said

these were aimed at paralysing and embarrassing

the government, and further eruptions of violence

should be expected before the elections. However,

it was clear that terrorists were relying on spec-

taculars and were no longer able to sustain their

aacks. Asked about Syria, Zebari said relations

were problematic and Baghdad had intelligence

that former members of Iraqi security forces who

were living there had strong connections with the

Syrian authorities. Recent bomb aacks, while

not the work of foreign ghters, had required the

kind of logistical support that could only be found

among such people. Talks with Damascus on the

issue had led nowhere.

Petraeus said progress in Iraq was fragile and

reversible but emphasised the sharp reduction in

violence. The number of aacks and violent civil-

ian deaths in November 2009 was the lowest of any

month since the US-led invasion in 2003. Violent

incidents had fallen by over 90% since spring 2007.

As the US drew down its forces in Iraq, it was work-

ing to foster closer relations between Iraq and other

Arab countries. I would remind my Arab broth-

ers that if there is concern about certain inuences

in Iraq, then it would be wise to increase the Arab

inuence in that critical country, Petraeus said.

A plenary session was devoted to plans for

nuclear power. M.K.Narayanan, National Security

Adviser to the Indian Prime Minister, said the

world was embarking on a nuclear renaissance

and that much of the new activity was taking place

in the Middle East and Asia. Nuclear energy was

the only way to ll Indias projected energy decit

of 412MW by 2050. Indian scientists were work-

ing at the cuing edge on fast breeder reactors

and thorium-based technologies. International

cooperation was needed to shape the growth of

nuclear power and to ensure security and safety

needs were met. The possibility of terrorists gain-

ing access to nuclear materials and technologies

and the shadow of nuclear terrorism is perhaps

the gravest threat to global security and mankind

at this moment, Narayanan said.

Kazuya Shinba, Japans Senior Vice Minister

for Defence, noted there was increasing momen-

tum for nuclear disarmament. While there were

worries Japan might acquire nuclear weapons in

response to North Koreas nuclear development,

he said there is no way that Japan will possess

nuclear weapons. Japan would continue to pursue

disarmament through the Six-Party Talks and

hoped all nuclear weapon states would undertake

multilateral or bilateral reduction eorts.

Among other issues raised was the need for

improved security frameworks in the Gulf region.

Petraeus said the past year had seen an increase in

the number of joint operations, exercises, and bilat-

eral and multilateral arrangements. Interaction

with partner countries had helped to develop the

concept he described as multi-bilateralism the

integration of bilateral activities to achieve multi-

lateral eects. This was occurring in shared early

warning, air and missile defence, and achievement

of a common operational picture.

Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaar, Adviser to

the King of Bahrain on Diplomatic Aairs, and

Chairman of the Bahrain Centre for Strategic

International and Energy Studies, said the Gulf

should aspire to logical security arrangements

which would involve the GCC countries, Iran,

Iraq and inuential outside powers. This would

produce a stable, inclusive architecture meeting

the concerns and interests of all parties. However,

for the time being the region would have to make

do with what he called the Realist Perspective

making the best of what we have, rather than

striving for an unreachable goal. He outlined steps

towards the eventual goal, including the building

of mutual condence and ensuring the region had

a credible voice in its own security. The GCC

needed a new strategic concept seing out a vision

of its role in regional security.

Ali Muhammad Al Anisi, Chairman o National Security

Agency, Yemen

Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalia

General David Petraeus, Commander, US Central

Command

Dr Mohammed Abdul Ghaar, Adviser to the King o

Bahrain on Diplomatic Aairs


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The central question for the group was how

to move from conict resolution into a much

broader mode of conict prevention and post-

conict consolidation. The Gulf region faced

threats including conicts between nation

states, communal disturbances, illegal track-

ing, piracy, terrorism, insurgency and resource

depletion. While the strategic role of the Gulf was

based on its oil resources, society was undergo-

ing rapid change, economic and demographic

developments were intensifying, and there was a

growing awareness of human rights issues.

The security environment was now a major

focus for discussion at Gulf Cooperation Council

summits involving redenition of the role of the

armed forces, development of military equipment

and capabilities, new concepts of joint operations

and, politically, joint defence policies.

A similar eort was needed in Afghanistan

to recalibrate coalition eorts so as to meet the

objectives of local control of security forces,

development of the police force, judiciary and

court system, education and healthcare sys-

tems and greater agricultural expertise. This

entailed enhancing civilian authorities and

development of a regional structure overcom-

ing the problems of distance, dicult terrain

and paerns of regional and tribal loyalties.

Aid programmes worked beer if decentra-

lised, but funds needed to be injected directly

and linked with stringent execution targets and

performance monitoring.

The approach of the United States would be

conditioned by the forthcoming Quadrennial

Defense Review which would examine both

state and asymmetric threats and the capacity of

partners to meet them. In the Gulf, strengthen-

ing partnerships, dealing with daily threats such

as improvised explosive devices, state support

for non-state actors, cyber and maritime threats

required not only funding for key programmes

but reinforcing national synergies and capa-

bilities. In Afghanistan, a whole of government

approach would be pursued, drawing in civilian

professionals so as to create long-term stability.

Break-out group : Military Transformation, Intelligence and Security Cooperation

The session agreed that Iraq had travelled a long

way in a positive direction over the last two years.

There had been a marked decline in violence and

instability as well as sectarian or sub-national

identities. Iraq had passed through occupation

and civil strife and was heading towards a posi-

tion where it could completely reclaim its own

sovereignty.

With the completion of the current round for

foreign bids to invest in the oil industry, Iraq was

poised to make the shift from economic backwa-

ter to regional powerhouse. The next stage would

be national elections in March 2010. While the

aftermath may see a messy and prolonged pro-

cess of government formation, the result should

be a new government with a ve-year term and a

democratic mandate.

Relations between the United States and

Iraq are now shaped by the Status of Forces

Agreement passed by the Iraqi parliament

in November 2008. The fact that Iraq did not

face a security vacuum when US troops with-

drew from the cities in June 2009 indicates the

capacity of the Iraqi armed forces to control the

country.

Relations with neighbours have in the past

been volatile and unstable, driven by fear, eco-

nomic competition and sectarian rivalries. Even

today some regional powers are apprehensive.

For example, Iraqs relations with Kuwait are

mixed: Kuwait backed regime change in Baghdad

in 2003, but is uneasy that Iraq has been unwill -

ing unambiguously to agree to the demarcation

of borders.

Iraq is one of Turkeys top foreign policy

issues and forms a central part of its aim to have

zero problems with its neighbours. Turkey kept

its embassy in Baghdad open throughout the

post-war violence and managed to keep an equal

distance from all Iraqs communities. Turkey con-

tinually urged Iraqs Sunni population to take

part in the reconciliation process. Overall, the

breakout group was optimistic about the future

of Iraq but it indentied continuing tensions

between Iraq and its neighbours.

(lr): Sh Thamer Mi Al Sabah, Vice-

President, National Security Bureau,

Kuwait; Sadiq Al Rikabi, Political

Advisor, Prime Ministers Oce, Iraq;

Dr Andrew Parasiliti, Executive Director,

IISSUS and Corresponding Director,

IISSMiddle East; Jerey Feltman,

Assistant Secretary or Near Eastern

Aairs, US Department o State; Murat

Ozcelik, Ambassador o Turkey to Iraq

(lr): Alexander Vershbow, Assistant

Secretary or International Security

Aairs, US Department o Deense;

Brigadier-General H.R. McMaster,

Chie, Concept Development and

Experimentation, Training and

Doctrine Command, US Army;Consulting Senior Fellow, IISS;

Brigadier Abdulrahman Al Hadoud,

Director o Military Intelligence, Kuwait

Armed Services; and Karl W. Eikenberry,

Ambassador o the US to Aghanistan

Break-out group : Iraq and the Region


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Because of the geo-strategic importance of the

region to trade and energy ows, and the con -

tinued high frequency of aacks on merchant

vessels there, piracy has continued to constitute

a signicant security concern in the Gulf of Aden,

and indeed the wider western Indian Ocean, over

the last year. Maintaining free access through the

Strait and ensuring unimpeded transit remain

vital for global well-being. International concern

has prompted unprecedented multinational naval

intervention, with contributions from 17 states.

The group heard that in Southeast Asia,

closer cooperation among lioral states helped

to reduce the problem of piracy in the Malacca

Strait to negligible levels. But in the Somali case,

naval action can only address the symptoms and

not the causes of piracy, which are rooted in the

collapse of political authority in Somalia.

Nevertheless, the group heard that interna-

tional naval patrolling combined with defensive

measures on the part of merchant vessels had

signicantly disrupted and deterred pirati-

cal activities: in 2008, the success rate for pirate

aacks was approximately 30% for all aempted

boardings; by late 2009, the rate had been reduced

to 15%. However, only half of vessels aacked

successfully in recent months had adhered to

International Maritime Organisation (IMO)

guidelines.

Eorts to coordinate national maritime

contributions take the form of the Shared

Awareness and Deconiction (SHADE)

Commiee and UN-IMO contact groups.

Improved maritime situational awareness is

necessary: this will require beer intelligence-

sharing.

There was agreement in the group that, while

Somali piracy continues to pose a serious menace

to shipping, wider maritime security challenges

should not be ignored. These challenges include

tracking, smuggling and the spectre of mari-

time terrorism. Concern was expressed over the

vulnerability of submarine bre-optic cables to

disruption.

While there are weaknesses and aws in cur-

rent anti-piracy eorts, multinational naval forces

are engaged in an unprecedented level of diplo-

matic, military collaboration and coordination.

This cooperation may have wider consequences

in terms of building condence among the navies

of states that are not all formal allies or even secu-

rity partners, which could be useful in the future.

As one participant pointed out: You can surge

forces, but you cannot surge trust.

Break-out group : Piracy and Maritime Security

The group heard that the phenomenon of Non-

State Actors (NSAs) was of increasing importance

as such groups were proliferating, with greater

inter-action between them and implications for

relations between countries and within wider

regions. For example, concerns about insurgency

in Yemen could aect relations between Yemen

and Saudi Arabia and between Saudi Arabia and

Iran, which could in turn impinge upon regional

security. Such eects could be exacerbated if

NSAs were serving a foreign agenda.

In Lebanon, Hizbullah was the dominant

Shia party but had links with non-Shia groups,

and worked patiently to a long-term timescale

with wide political appeal. It had two ministers

in the new government and several supportive

MPs. Its new manifesto placed more emphasis

on its Lebanese context and underplayed its rela-

tionship with Iran. It possessed a strong military

arsenal including anti-ship missiles, with rumours

of anti-aircraft missiles. There was lile sign that

it would disarm, as required by UN resolutions.

In Pakistan, new NSAs had emerged in the

last ve years, with limited objectives but having

links with international NSAs, especially al-

Qaeda. A wave of terrorism had killed about

2,000 civilians and 2,250 military personnel and

had caused massive damage. It was suggested

that the actions of the United States, the NATO-

led forces in Afghanistan and possibly India

enhanced the diculty of dealing with NSAs in

Pakistan. Military operations in Swat and North

Waziristan had proceeded well: the return of

2.6 million displaced persons in 4 months was

without parallel. A distinction had to be made

between the Pakistani Taliban which started

by supporting the Afghan Taliban and were now

opposing the Pakistani state in opposition to what

they saw as a Western agenda and the Afghan

Taliban, a product of the anti-Soviet mujahadeen

which the West had helped create in the 1980s.

Alliances between them had allowed the Afghan

Taliban to gain sanctuary in Pakistan. For the time

being, Pakistans main focus was directed against

the Pakistani groups.

(lr): Dr Michael C. Williams, Under Secretary-General

and Special Coordinator or Lebanon, United Nations;

General Mansour Al Turki, Spokesperson, Interior

Ministry, Saudi Arabia; Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior

Fellow or Gul Security and Corresponding Director,

IISSMiddle East; Lieutenant-General Muhammed

Mustaa Khan, Chie o the General Sta, Pakistan;

Proessor Aboumohammad Asgarkhani, Proessor,

Department o International Relations, University o

Tehran

(lr): Vice-Admiral M.P. Muralidharan, Chie o

Personnel, Indian Navy; Lieutenant-General Desmond

Kuek Bak Chye; Chie o Deence Force, Ministry o

Deence, Singapore; Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director,

IISSAsia; Editor,Adelphis; Corresponding Director

or Military Inormation and Analysis, IISS; Admiral

Sir Mark Stanhope, First Sea Lord and Chie o NavalSta, Royal Navy, UK; Vice-Admiral William Gortney,

Commander, US Naval Forces, Central Command;

Commander, US Fith Fleet

Break-out group : Non-State Actors in Regional Security


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SoUTh ASIA PRogRAMME


The rd IISSNESA SouthAsia Conerence In Oman

The 3rd conference on Islam, Politics and Security was held in Muscat,

Oman, on 1416 December in association with the Near East South Asia

Centre for Strategic Studies (NESA). This took place amid some key secu -

rity concerns and challenges in the region. It followed US President Barack

Obamas announcement of a surge in troop levels in Afghanistan, accompa -

nied by a deadline for the withdrawal of forces by July 2011. A sharp rise in

terror aacks in Pakistan appeared to be the result of a major new oensive by

the Pakistani security forces against the Taliban in South Waziristan. India and

Pakistans bilateral peace dialogue is yet to resume, a year after the Mumbai

terror aack. Bangladesh faced several extremist and terror challenges with

links to the AfghanistanPakistan region.

It was against this backdrop that 60 senior ocials and inuential experts

from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan gathered to discuss the

causes and consequences of Islamic radicalism and extremism, and to con -

tribute to a policy-oriented national, regional and international dialogue to

counter extremism and terrorism in South Asia. A small number of UK, US,

French and IISS participants also aended. Discussions took place on an o-

the-record, informal basis.

Sessions included: Islamic Radicalism and Extremism in South Asia;

Perceptions of National Terrorist Threats; Countering Terrorism: National

Experiences; Bolstering Regional Cooperation; Role for Non-regional

Countries; and The Way Forward. In addition, a special session was held on

US and Coalition Operations in Afghanistan and the New US Strategy. The

IISS is preparing a policy-relevant brief which draws on these discussions, to

be distributed to all participants as well as senior ocials of South Asian and

other governments.

The conference drew together high-level diplomats from South Asia,

who were joined for the rst time by senior intelligence and security o-

cials. These included: Minister Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, adviser to

President Karzai on Home Security; Dr Davood Moradian, senior adviser

to the Foreign Minister (Afghanistan); and Mohebbur Rahman Fayez, of

the Embassy of Afghanistan in India (Afghanistan); Major-General Monzur

Ahmed, Director General, National Security Intelligence and Hassan Mahood

Khandker, of the Rapid Action Baalion (Bangladesh); Jayant Prasad, Indias

Ambassador to Afghanistan; Rana Banerji, former Special Secretary, Cabinet

Secretariat; Ambassador Yash Sinha, Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan,

Iran), Ministry of External Aairs, and Tara Kartha, Director in the Joint

Intelligence Commiee, Cabinet Secretariat (India); and Major-General Rashad

Mahmood, Director General of Counter-terrorism, Inter-Services Intelligence

(ISI); Brigadier-General Abid Mahmood, ISI; and Afrasiab Mehdi Hashmi,

Director General (South Asia), Ministry of Foreign Aairs (Pakistan).

Members of parliament from South Asia also participated. These included:

Fawzia Koo, Vice-President, Wolesi Jirga, Afghanistan; Manish Tewari,

Member of the Lok Sabha, India; and Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan, Member

of the National Assembly and former Chief Minister, North West Frontier

Province (NWFP), Pakistan. Senior participants from earlier IISS South Asia

conferences included: Field Marshal Lord Inge, former Chief of Defence Sta,

UK and Member of the Council, IISS; General Jehangir Karamat, former

Chief of Army Sta, Pakistan and Ambassador Farooq Sobhan, President,

Bangladesh Enterprise Institute and former Foreign Secretary.

This conference was organised by Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior

Fellow for South Asia, with the assistance of Rebecca Fishley, IISS Dialogues

& Asia Coordinator.

The IISS would like to thank Sultan Qaboos bin Said and Diwan of the

Royal Court for supporting this series of conferences.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Major-General Monzur Ahmed, Dr John Chipman, and Major-

General Rashad Mahmood

Christopher Langton, Ambassador Jayant Prasad

Sir Hilary Synnott and Rana BanerjiAmbassador YK Sinha and Mohebbur Rahman Fayez Sardar Mahtab Ahmed Khan


9/20

I ISS FocUS oN AFghANISTAN

IISS NEwS DEcEMbER |

General Stanley McChrystal

Adam Ward and Dr Liam Fox MP

Key Address:General Stanley McChrystalThe commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General Stanley

McChrystal, used a special address to the Institute on 1 October to fur-

ther spell out his case for sending more troops to ght the Taliban. Having

recently asked the White House for 40,000 reinforcements, Gen. McChrystal

explained why the situation in Afghanistan had deteriorated so badly and

why it was a bale worth pursuing. His speech reported and debated

around the world also called for a fundamental shift in the way the insur -

gency is tackled, giving more aention to winning hearts and minds. This

discussion was moderated by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and

Chief Executive, IISS. Watch the Speech and the Q&A Session and read

the speech at hp://www.iiss.org/recent-key-addresses/general-stanley-

mcchrystal-address/.

Dr Liam Fox MPOn 28 September 2009, Dr Liam Fox MP, Shadow Secretary of State for

Defence, spoke on Beyond the Smoke: Making Progress in Afghanistan. Dr

Fox outlined what diplomatic and military strategy a Conservative United

Kingdom government would pursue towards the country. He argued there

was a need for NATO and for member governments to more clearly dene

the objectives towards Afghanistan, puing security rst rather than longer-

term developmental or political goals. This address was chaired by Adam

Ward, Director of Studies, and can be viewed at the IISS website at hp://

www.iiss.org/recent-key-addresses/liam-fox-address/.

The View romthe GroundThe IISS continued to keep abreast of the situation

in Afghanistan and Pakistan through rst-hand

experience and accounts. The Institutes Senior

Fellow for Conict & Defence Diplomacy, Colonel

Christopher Langton, was in Kabul and Kandahar

from 1119 November, as part of a small delegation

invited by the UKs Ministry of Defence. The colo-

nel visited the International Security Assistance

Forces (ISAF) Regional Command (South). He was

involved in briengs on the military and civilian

dimensions of the Afghanistan campaign, eorts

to train the national army and police, the Afghan

economy and other issues.

IISS members at Arundel House heard an

Afghani perspective when Dr Davood Moradian, a

senior policy adviser to the countrys foreign min-

ister, spoke on 15 October about the necessity to

talk to the Taliban.

On 12 October, Professor Anatol Lieven, the Chair

of International Relations and Terrorism Studies at

Insights from the Afghan Field on 23 November;

Colonel Langton was a guest of the German

Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) at two

Berlin events on 89 December, rstly NATOs

Strategy in Afghanistan, and then Partners for

Stability Involving Neighbours in Afghanistans

Reconstruction Transatlantic Approaches, focus-

ing on the countrys narcotics problem. See www.

iiss.org for more details.

Kings College London, and a former IISS Senior

Fellow, gave his assessment of Pakistans counter-

insurgency campaigns, after spending several

weeks in summer interviewing locals in the cities of

Islamabad and Peshawar, and Swat and Buner agen-

cies in North West Frontier Province (NWFP).

In other Afghanistan discussions, Dr Antonio

Giustozzi from the London School of Economics

presented his book Decoding the New Taliban:

Proessor Anatol Lieven Dr Antonio Giustozzi


10/20

TRANSNATIoNAl ThREATS AND PolITIcAl RIS k / I ISS FocUS o N AFghANIS TAN


Discussion Meetings

on The Role of the New Obama Administration

and any Perceived Change in Policy Towards

Terrorism.

On 24 November, Nigel Inkster was invited

to the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom

in Shrivenham, to aend a symposium on

Understanding Islam in the 21st Century, where

he oered a Global Overview of Contemporary

Terrorist Activity.

The Transnational Threats and Political Risk

programme hosted a discussion meeting on 1

December with Major-General Mart de Kruif,

Former Commander Regional Command (South)

ISAF. The topic was: Strategic Patience, the Way to

Success in Afghanistan. Maj.-Gen. de Kruif gave a

short orientation on Regional Command (South),

after which he explained the current situation and

Initial Assessment COMISAF, discussing all the

Lines of Operation and his expectations on devel-

opments within the next 12 months. The event was

chaired by Nigel Inkster.

On 2 December, Nigel Inkster hosted Dr Nabeel

A. Khoury, Director of the Near East South Asia

Oce, Bureau of Political Analysis at the US State

Department. Dr Khoury addressed IISS members

on Crisis in Yemen: Immediate and Long-term

Challenges.

lr Nigel Inkster, Dr Peter Neumann, Sir Hilary Synnott, Henry Hogger and Robert Whalley Major-General Mart de Krui Dr Nabeel A. Khour y

Henry Hogger, of Gallup, was the key speaker at a

discussion meeting on Muslim West Facts: Islam

speaks for itself: Results of The Gallup World

Poll on 5 October. The presentation, chaired by

Sir Hilary Synno, Consulting Senior Fellow

at the IISS, was followed by commentary from:

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats

and Political Risk; Robert Whalley, Consulting

Senior Fellow at the IISS; and Dr Peter Neumann,

Director of the International Centre for the Study

of Radicalisation and Political Violence at Kings

College, London.

On 78 October, Nigel Inkster aended a con-

ference in Brussels on Climate Change & Security

at Copenhagen II The Contribution of the Global

Security Community to Success, where he was

part of a panel addressing Atlantic Relations in

2009. The event was organised by the Institute

for Environmental Security in partnership with a

number of organisations looking at environmental

issues.

Colonel Christopher Langton, Senior Fellow

for Conict and Defence Diplomacy, was invited

to the rst Berlin Roundtable on Diplomacy, an

event which grew out of cooperation between

the German Federal Foreign Oce and the Erfurt

School of Public Policy. The theme of the round-

table, which took place from 58 October, was

conict resolution in the South Caucasus. Col.

Langton delivered an introductory presentation on

The Analysis of the Sources of Conict.

Research Analyst Virginia Comolli spoke at a

workshop organised by Europol in The Hague.

Virginia addressed the participants at the event,

held on 2021 October, on the strategic relations

between energy supply and demand.

On 22 October, the IISS hosted Ilan Berman,

Vice-President for Policy at the American

Foreign Policy Council, for a discussion meet-

ing around his book Winning the Long War:

Retaking the Ofensive against Radical Islam. The

meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, Director

of Studies.

Nigel Inkster was invited to address a global

security seminar on the reporting of terrorism

and security, aimed at journalists from developed

and developing countries. At the event, organised

by the ThomsonReuters Foundation, Nigel spoke

about the modern age of terrorism and the role

of intelligence agencies. The seminar was held in

Oxford from 1617 November.

Nigel delivered a keynote address at the

Counter Terrorism and Security conference in

London on 18 November. He gave a presentation

Prolieration RoundtableNiu Qiang, Secretary-General of the Chinese Peoples Association for Peace and Disarmament

(CPAPD) and Deputy President of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA),

led a Chinese delegation aending a half-day expert roundtable, hosted by the Transnational

Threats and Political Risk programme and Saferworld. Academic experts and government ocials

from both China and Europe participated in the discussion on 25 November. Speakers included

representatives from the North Institute of Science and Technology Information and the China

Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). The afternoon began with a discus -

sion on illicit conventional arms trade, touching on the current arms trade regime and Chinese

perception of it. The second session addressed the threat posed by illicit conventional arms trade

to global security.

lr Dr Owen Greene, Bradord University, and Dr Guo

Xiaobing, China Institute o Contemporary International

Relations


11/20

NoN-PRolIFERATIoN AND DISARMAMENT PRogRAMME


included a broad range of government ocials and academic experts from

both China and the UK. The workshop formed a central component of a cur-

rent IISS project examining Chinese perspectives and strategic thinking about

nuclear security in the context of the global struggle to prevent nuclear or

radiological terrorism. The discussion generated numerous suggestions for

possible UKChina cooperation on nuclear security issues, some of which will

be explored further in future IISS publications. The workshop was made pos-

sible through the support of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Oce.

On 27 November, IISS hosted the seventh workshop under its project on

Fostering International Dialogue on Korean Security. The workshop featured

presentations by Huh Chul, Ambassador for Korean Peninsula Peace Regime

from the Republic of Korea; So Ki Sok, senior researcher at the Institute for

Disarmament and Peace in Pyongyang; Ja Song Nam, DPRK Ambassador to

the UK; Simon Manley, Director of Defence and Strategic Threats, FCO. The

40 participants from the two Koreas, Japan, China, Russia, US, UK and other

European states assessed Peninsula political dynamics, North Korean rela-

tions with its key negotiating partners, the nuclear and missile programmes in

North Korea, and prospects for engagement and capacity building, including

development of future contacts and areas of cooperation.

Participants at IISSCIIS/CACDA workshop on Perspectives on Nuclear and Radiological

Security

Mark Fitzpatrick, Director o the Non-Prolieration and Disarmament Programme

Meetings, Discussions andWorkshops

On 7 October, Mark Fipatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and

Disarmament Programme, led an IISS discussion meeting on Assessing

Iranian Nuclear Developments, chaired by Dr Dana Allin, Editor, Survival, and

IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Aairs. Fipatrick

noted that the recent revelation of a new enrichment facility at Qom under-

scored intelligence agency and internal IAEA assessments about Iranian work

on weapons development. Yet he argued that a tentative agreement reached

on 1 October during talks in Geneva in which Iran would export the bulk of

its stockpile of enriched uranium in exchange for fuel for its research reactor

would if implemented be a condence-building measure and oer a pos -

sible path to a long-term solution.

On 20 November 2009, the IISS held a one-day workshop in Beijing on

Perspectives on Nuclear and Radiological Security, in collaboration with

the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), and the China Arms

Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA). The workshop participants

IN BRIEF

Mark Fitzpatrick

Mark Fitzpatrick, Director o the IISS Non-Prolieration

and Disarmament Programme, addressed a ple-

nary session o the IISS Global Strategic Review

on 12 September in a speech entitled Nuclear

Disarmament and Non-Prolieration: Strengthening

the Synergy. On 16 September, he joined a round-

table discussion at 10 Downing Street led by the

Prime Minister on how the UK can best shape the

nuclear debate and on 15 October he participated in

a brieng on non-prolieration to newly appointed

Minister o State or Foreign and Commonwealth

Aairs Ivan Lewis. These topics also eatured in his 29

October keynote speech on Successes and Failure o

NPT or World without NPT? at a Webster University

seminar in Vienna on nuclear non-prolieration. He

also gave a presentation on covert nuclear trade.

On 3 December, he was asked to oer a US perspec-

tive at a conerence co-hosted by the Royal UnitedServices Institute on Towards Zero: Britains role in

urthering nuclear non-prolieration and multilateral

approaches to disarmament.

Mark presented the latest IISS strategic dossier

on Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and

Australasia at a 28 September book launch at Arundel

House. From 818 November, he toured ve capitals

in Southeast Asia to meet with government ocials

and academics to discuss issues highlighted in the

dossier. The tour culminated with a book launch

at the Singapore International Energy Week. On 7

December, he drew rom the dossier or a presenta-

tion in Hanoi at a meeting o the Council or Security

Cooperation in the Asia Pacic (CSCAP) Study Group

on Countering the Prolieration o Weapons o Mass

Destruction in the Asia Pacic. On 9 December, also

in Hanoi, he spoke on Prolieration Networks and

Export Controls at a meeting o the CSCAP Export

Control Experts Group.

This autumn Mark also continued to ocus atten-

tion on the Iranian nuclear issue. He spoke on this

subject on 17 September at a conerence hosted by

the Legatum Institute and the Henry Jackson Society;on 7 October, at an IISS discussion meeting keyed to

the tentative agreement reached in Geneva the previ-

ous week on removing Iranian uranium in exchange

or research reactor uel; and on 15 December at a

Wilton Park conerence on nuclear non-prolieration

and the 2010 NPT review. On 1 October in Brussels,

he spoke about Iran, North Korea and the Challenge

o Non-Prolieration as the eatured speaker at a

lunchtime debate organised by the External Relations

Directorate o the European Commission.

On 29 September, Mark chaired a discussion

meeting with US Deputy Assistant Secretary o

Deense or European and NATO Policy James J.

Townsend Jr on the Obama administrations mis-

sile-deence policy. At Wilton Park on 22 October,

he kicked o a conerence on New Approaches

to Penalising Nuclear Smuggling. In Beijing on 20

November, Mark co-chaired a BritishChinese work-

shop on Perspectives on Nuclear and Radiological

Security. On 21 November he gave a presentation to

a diplomatic group assembled at the Dutch Embassy

in Beijing on Chinas role in global and regional

non-prolieration and arms control issues. On 27November, he chaired the 7th annual IISS work-

shop at Arundel House on Fostering International

Dialogue on Korean Security.


12/20

DIScUSSIoN MEETINgS / book lAUNchES


Adelphi Book LaunchMats Berdal, Professor of Security

and Development, Kings College

London, launched his new Adelphi

Book Building Peace After War.

Intervention by outside actors, aimed

at building sustainable peace within

societies ravaged by war, has been a

striking feature of the post-Cold War

era. But, at a time when more peace-

keepers are deployed around the

world than at any other point in his-

tory, is the international will for these

missions beginning to wane? And

how far can the systems for planning

and deploying peacebuilding missions full the increasingly complex tasks

set for them? In his book published under the IISS Adelphi series, Mats Berdal,

Consulting Senior Fellow at the IISS, addresses these and other crucial ques -

tions. The meeting on 16 November was chaired by Alexander Nicoll, Director

of Editorial; Editor of Strategic Survey; Editor of Strategic Comments , IISS. For

more information visit hp://www.iiss.org/publications/adelphi-papers/adel-

phi-papers-2009/building-peace-after-war/.

Discussion MeetingOn 2 November, Dr Alon Ben-Meir, Senior Fellow and Middle Eastern Studies Project Director, World

Policy Institute, spoke on Is the Arab Peace Initiative the Answer to Resolving the Middle East Conict?.

Dr Ben-Meir presented on the Arab Peace Initiative and its potential to jump-start the PalestinianIsraeli

peace process. The Initiative provides a comprehensive formula for peace, and the means to solve the

political conundrum between Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and Israel. While it has done lile to tide

ArabIsraeli conict since its introduction in 2002, and its subsequent reintroduction in 2007, Dr Ben-

Meir insisted the Initiative is the key to opening dialogue between the 22 Arab states and Israel. He also

stressed the importance of Arab leaders actively promoting the document and the Obama administra-

tions endorsement in drawing Israel towards a two-state solution. This meeting was chaired by Dr Toby

Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS.

Mats Berdal

Adam Ward and David Miliband

Dr Alon Ben-Meir

Key AddressThe most pro-European speech by a British foreign secretary that was how

one UK national newspaper described a keynote address by David Miliband

at the IISS on 26 October, and most commentators seemed to agree. The

Foreign Secretary conceded the European Union had weaknesses, some of

which could be resolved by the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty (which

subsequently happened on 1 December). However, in his speech entitled A

Strong Britain in a Strong Europe, he forcefully made the case that European

membership was as much in Britains interest as it was in the EUs.

Insisting that Britain needed the weight of the EU to preserve and advance

its values and interests in the modern world, he said: It is not in my judgment

possible to argue for a strong British global role without a strong commitment

to the EU.

This meeting was chaired by Adam Ward, IISS Director of Studies. Watch

the speech and the Q&A session and read the speech at hp://www.iiss.org/

events-calendar/2009-events-archive/october-2009/key-address-the-rt-hon-

david-miliband-mp/.

Analysing HowTerrorism Ends

The IISS hosted an expert round-

table on 4 December to discuss

How Terrorism Ends: Understanding

the Decline and Demise of Terrorist

Campaigns , the latest publication by

Dr Audrey Kurth Cronin, Professor

of Strategy at the US National War

College in Washington DC. The dis-

cussion was structured around several

controversial issues covered in the

book. First was the debate on decapi-

tation strategy and what approach

should be adopted towards captured

leaders. Participants also talked about

negotiations as a way of ending con-

icts between terrorists and the state,

and as a tool for managing conict. The roundtable was followed by an open

discussion meeting in the afternoon with Dr Cronin, chaired by Adam Ward,

Director of Studies at the IISS.

Dr Audrey Kurth Cronin


13/20

DIScUSSIoN MEETINgS


IISS Workshop MajorPower Dynamics in AsiaThe IISS hosted a workshop in Washington DC on 1213 November explor-

ing the issue of Major Power Dynamics in Asia: Implications for Small and

Medium-sized Powers. The workshop was very kindly supported by the

John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundations Asia Security Initiative

(ASI).

Participants discussed the foreign and defence postures adopted by

smaller states within Asias multi-polar order. Some have aempted to inu-

ence the regional balance by actively strengthening their security relations

with the United States, or have at least acquiesced in US eorts to reinforce

its regional partnerships. Many have displayed interest in a regional secu-

rity architecture to protect their interests amid the rise of China and India.

These same states have also, however, continued to build their military capa-

bilities, increasing defence spending in proportion to their economic success.

Meanwhile Russias diplomacy points to the possibility of a more prominent

and assertive role in Asias geopolitics.

The workshop examined the prospect of future conict between smaller

and medium powers in Asia, and assessed how they might t into the emerg-

ing strategic landscape.

For more information see hp://www.iiss.org/about-us/oces/

washington/iiss-us-events/iiss-us-workshop-major-power-dynamics-in-asia-

implications-for-small-and-medium-sized-powers/.

The Economics oConfict ResolutionBuilding on a successful inaugural meeting in Washington DC in May

and two dedicated break-out group meetings at Septembers Global

Strategic Review conference in Geneva, the IISS convened the second

roundtable meeting of its Economics and Conict Resolution Programme

in London on 30 September 2009. Under the theme Distinctive

Challenges and Eective Solutions, the Institute, with the support of

the Portland Trust, brought together international experts in economics,

security and development to pool their work on aspects of conict and

its resolution and begin to explore the interdependencies between their

elds.

For further information see the IISS website hp://www.iiss.org/

programmes/conflict/the-economics-of-conflict-resolution-distinctive-

challenges-and-eective-solutions/.

Participants at the workshop

IN BRIEF

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, IISS Senior Fellow or South Asia, spoke in a panel discus-

sion in the House o Lords on 19 October on Post-war in Sri Lanka: Peace and

Reconciliation A Way Forward. On 23 October, he lectured on The Future o

Indias Maritime Security at the Delegation o Strategic Aairs o the French

Ministry o Deence in Paris. He delivered his annual lecture to the Oxord

University Foreign Service Programme at Queen Elizabeth House, Oxord, on

South Asia Regional Security Concerns on 30 November. On 16 October he

chaired a talk on India and China: Competition rather than Cooperation? by

prominent Indian journalist, author and politician Dr Arun Shourie MP.

Rahul travelled to New Delhi in October and December 2009 to call on the

National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan, Chie o Naval Sta Admiral NirmalVerma, Chie o the Integrated Service Command Air Marshal S.C. Mukul, the Chie

o the Deence Intelligence Agency and other senior ocials o the Ministries o

External Aairs and Deence, and the National Security Council Secretariat. He

also gave an inormal brieng to the Director General and senior ocers o the

recently established National Investigation Agency (NIA). On 1113 December he

travelled to Bahrain to attend the 6th IISS Manama Dialogue. He was in Muscat,

Oman, rom 1318 December, where he chaired a session o the 3rd IISS South

Asia Conerence on Islam, Politics and Security, which he organised with the sup-

port o Rebecca Fishley, IISS Dialogues & Asia Coordinator.

Adam Ward

In September, Adam Ward, the Institutes Director o Studies, hosted UK Shadow

Deence Secretary Dr Liam Fox MP or a discussion on the confict in Aghanistan. InOctober he arranged or ISAF Commander General Stanley McChrystal to address

the IISS on the same subject. Later in October he convened and spoke at an IISS work-

shop on the international security implications o Chinas rise, organised or the UK

Ministry o Deence with representation rom across Whitehall. In mid October he

was in Singapore to speak at a conerence on Asias Regional Security Architecture,

organised by the IISS in tandem with the Institute or Southeast Asian Studies. Later

that month he hosted UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband or a major address at

Arundel House on how the Lisbon Treatys ratication might aect the European

Unions role in world aairs. In mid November, Adam Ward was in Washington,

where he convened and chaired a workshop on Major Power Dynamics in Asia.

He next travelled to Tblisi, Georgia, with Senior Fellow or Russia and Eurasia Oksana

Antonenko, to prepare the ground or a major new IISS project on security in the

Southern Caucasus. This was also the subject o a conerence convened by the IISS

in Baku, Azerbaijan, later in November, in partnership with the Centre o Strategic

Studies under the President o Azerbaijan a meeting which Adam Ward addressed

and co-chaired. In mid December, he travelled to Bahrain or the IISS ManamaDialogue and then on to Muscat, Oman, or a high-level workshop on Political Islam

in South Asia, convened under the auspices o the IISS South Asia Programme.

Robert Whalley

Robert Whalley, Consulting Senior Fellow, has been working with Bastian

Giegerich and Virginia Comolli on the European Union FORESEC project, which

is looking at threats to European security over the next ve years. He prepared

the IISS contribution on critical national inrastructure or the project seminar in

Stockholm. He has also been working with the Swedish EU Presidency investi-

gating uture directions or EU security ollowing the ratication o the Lisbon

Treaty, and presenting to a Swedish Presidency seminar in Brussels in September.

Robert Whalley and Nigel Inkster attended the European Expert Network (EeNET)

conerence in Vienna in October, where he chaired a session on the impact omajor global trends in violent extremism. In November he chaired a conerence

on counter-terrorism and security arranged by the SPG Media Group, at which

Nigel Inkster gave the keynote address.


14/20

RUSSIAEURASIA PRogRAMME


Security and Developmentin the South Caucasus

An International Conference was hosted by IISS and the Centre for Strategic

Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, in Baku on 20 November. Speakers

included experts from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, Turkey and Iran, as well

as the US and Europe. The conference addressed the challenges posed by pro -

tracted regional conicts, the implications for regional stability and security of

last years war between Georgia and Russia, prospects for the resolution of the

Nagorno-Karabakh conict and for completing the normalisation of Turkish

Armenian relations, EU policies towards the South Caucasus and regional

energy-security dilemmas. It opened with remarks from Elnur Aslanov, of

Azerbaijans Presidential Administration, and from the Deputy Speaker of the

Parliament of Azerbaijan Dr Ziyafat Asgerov. IISS Senior Fellow for Russia

and Eurasia Oksana Antonenko gave a presentation on the prospects for reso-

lution in protracted regional conicts.

The Collective SecurityTreaty Organisation

On 8 December 2009, Colonel General

Nikolai Bordyuzha, Secretary-

General of the Collective Security

Treaty Organisation, spoke about

the organisations history, its cur-

rent institutional composition and

the evolution of its defence and

crisis-response capabilities. He also

discussed areas in which it proposes

to establish cooperation with NATO,

including eorts to counter drug

tracking from Central Asia, illegal

migration, border security, and the

training of Afghan security forces and the strengthening of governance in

Afghanistan. After the presentation, the discussion focused on the role and

interests of dierent CSTO members and their impact on multilateral coopera-

tion within CSTO. Questions were raised about security challenges in Central

Asia and possible impacts of instability in Afghanistan on the region of CSTO

activity. This discussion was chaired by Oksana Antonenko.

ArmenianTurkish Relations

Tigran Mkrtchyan spoke on Normalising ArmenianTurkish Relations on

23 November. Mr Mkrtchyan, the European Stability Initiatives analyst in

Armenia, described the troubled history of TurkishArmenian relations and

analysed the driving forces behind the current rapprochement. He described

the key elements of the protocols on normalising bilateral relations which

were signed in October 2009, and outlined obstacles to ratication and imple -

mentation. The meeting was chaired by Oksana Antonenko.

Russias ProspectsOn 23 October, Oksana Antonenko, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia;

Timothy Colton, Feldberg Professor of Government at Harvard University and

Director of the Davis Centre for Russian and Eurasian Studies; David Hearst,

foreign leader writer for The Guardian; and John Peet, Europe Editor for The

Economist discussed the key themes emerging from this years Valdai Club

programme. As part of this annual series of meetings organised by Russian

information agency RIA Novosti, they spoke with President Dmitry Medvedev,

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, First Deputy

Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, and presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich, as

well as the heads of Gazprom and Rosneft. The IISS meeting assessed what

came out of these discussions in Russia, including modernisation proposed by

President Medvedev, foreign policy, military reform and energy policy.

USRussianRelationsOn 5 November, Dr Igor Yurgens,

Chairman of the Russian Institute of

Contemporary Development, spoke

on Reseing USRussian Relations.

Dr Yurgens, who recently joined the

IISS Advisory Council, addressed the

history of USRussian relations, the

rationale behind the current aempt

to transform bilateral relations,

Russias key objectives for the reset, and the potential barriers to achieving

partnership in areas of common concern. The meeting was chaired by Oksana

Antonenko.

Tigran Mkrtchyan and Oksana Antonenko

The conerence room

Nikolai Bordyuzha

Dr Igor Yurgens


15/20

RUSSIAEURASIA PRogRAMME / clIMATE chANgE AND SEcURITy


chairman of the Foreign Aairs Commiee of

the State Duma; Sergei Karaganov, Chairman of

the Board of the Council on Foreign and Defence

Policy; Nikolai Bordyuzha, Secretary-General

of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation;

Igor Yurgens, Chairman of the Institute for

Contemporary Development; Fyodor Lukyanov,

Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Afairs; and

Sergei Vykhokhulev of RIA Novosti.

More than 70 participants from the UK, the

US and Europe were also present. The opening

dinner address was delivered by Marc Perrin de

Brichambaut, OSCE Secretary-General, who out-

lined the progress made in discussions of President

Medvedevs proposals, and the OSCEs role as the

platform for such discussions under the Corfu pro-

cess. Baroness Taylor of Bolton, of the UK Ministry

of Defence opened the conference with a speech

about the key European security challenges.

Alexander Grushko oered a Russian perspective

on the proposed draft treaty.

Three issues dominated the conference: threats,

risks and challenges for Euro-Atlantic security; the

role and eectiveness of existing institutions; and

how to develop a comprehensive Euro-Atlantic

security architecture with Russia.

Conerence on the New EuropeanSecurity Treaty

(lr): Alexander Grushko, Deputy Foreign Minister o the Russian Federation; Oksana Antonenko, IISS Senior Fellow

or Russia and Eurasia; Baroness Taylor o Bolton, Minister or International Deence and Security, UK; and Sergei

Karaganov, Chairman o the Board o the Council on Foreign and Deence Policy

On 89 December, the IISS hosted a major inter-

national meeting entitled Towards a New

European Security Architecture. It followed

President Dmitry Medvedevs proposals on the

draft European Security Treaty, unveiled days

before the Athens OSCE Ministerial Council on

12 December. The conference was organised

jointly by the IISS, Valdai Discussion Club, RIA

Novosti and the Council on Foreign and Defence

Policy, a forum for the discussion of international

issues.

It brought together high-level Russian o-

cials and experts, including: Alexander Grushko,

Deputy Foreign Minister; Konstantin Kosachev,

Climate Change, Foodand Security

probability, high impact events such as famine have a serious impact on

security.

Participants discussed policies that will enhance food security and envi-

ronmental resilience and combat climate change. These include: expanding

no-till farming to allow plants to lter more carbon out of the atmosphere,

increasing investment in agricultural research, building rural roads, and plan-

ning for natural disasters. They also called for security and defence agencies to

tackle climate change together, since it transcends borders and agency remits.

The event, funded by the European Commission, took place at Arundel House

in London.

Security, Climate Changeand Uncertainty:Rethinking Strategic RiskOn 10 December, the IISSUS oce held the roundtable discussion Security,

Climate Change and Uncertainty: Rethinking Strategic Risk.

Speaking at the event were David Robson and Carol Dumaine, Deputy

Director for energy and environmental security within the US Department of

Energy. The event was held under Chatham House Rules.

Discussion focused on the need to coordinate eorts to manage risk, warn -

ing that no country in the global economy can be fully protected from the

eects of climate change, resource scarcity and population growth unless

all are protected. Governments should therefore work across boundaries to

foster trust, collaboration and communication to counter the threat to their

systems and infrastructure.

The Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change and Security, an IISS pro -

gramme that looks at long-term planning for a warming climate, held a

workshop on 10 November with more than 25 international representatives

from government agencies, research and academic institutions, and NGOs.

This came as defence and intelligence agencies have begun to turn their aen -

tion towards the intersecting concerns of climate change and food security.

Dr Gerald Nelson of the International Food Policy Research Institute

(IFPRI) warned of increasing volatility as productive arable land zones with

reliable rainfall paerns shift, thereby cuing the worlds overall productive

capacity. Quantifying and predicting these factors will be a dicult task.

David Robson, head of energy and environmental foresight for the Scoish

Government, and Tom Burke, a Founding Director of E3G, urged policy -

makers not to focus solely on climate model predictions, stressing that low

David Robson Dr Gerald Nelson


16/20

I ISSASIA


Non-prolierationSeminar

Banning That Bomb: Thinking about Nuclear Non-

Proliferation and Disarmament was the subject up

for discussion at an 8 September IISSAsia semi-

nar, sponsored by the Australian Department of

Defence. Dr Ron Huisken spoke about the renewed

impetus for a world without nuclear weapons,

assessing the factors that will aect disarmament

and discussing why the process continues to meet

with scepticism and resistance.

Workshop on the Asia-Pacic Regional SecurityArchitectureMore than 40 participants from East and Southeast Asia, as well as representa-

tives from the United States and Australia, aended a workshop on 1516

October intended to take stock of the evolving regional security architecture

in the Asia-Pacic region. Leading experts on the regions security institutions

and partnerships were present for the one-and-a-half-day event convened

by IISSAsia in collaboration with Singapores Institute of Southeast Asian

Studies (ISEAS). They assessed recent developments in multilateral regional

institutions involved in security dialogue and other forms of security coop-

eration. These include the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

and ASEAN-anchored forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and the

East Asian Summit, but also diverse non-ASEAN forums such as the IISS

Shangri-La Dialogue, Six-Party Talks on North Koreas nuclear programme,

and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The workshop also investigated

the part played in the regional security architecture by bilateral security rela-

tionships. Among the questions it addressed were: What roles will ASEAN

and its related forums play in promoting security and stability in the Asia-

Pacic in the future? How might a changing conguration of major power

inuences aect bilateral security relations and their contribution to the

regional security architecture? What are the merits of alternative visions

such as Australian Prime Minister Rudds Asia-Pacic Community? Dr Tim

Huxley, Executive Director of IISSAsia, and Ambassador K. Kesavapany,

Director of ISEAS, made opening remarks. At the end of the rst day, Dr

Balaji Sadasivan, Singapores Senior Minister of State for Foreign Aairs,

Prince Norodom SirivudhPrince Norodom Sirivudh, the

Supreme Privy Counsellor to the

King of Cambodia, gave a per-

sonal speech at an IISSAsia event

on The Future of Cambodia on

30 November. The former Deputy

Prime Minister and Minister of

Foreign Aairs spoke eloquently

about his countrys domestic and

international challenges, highlight-

ing the persistent problem of rural

poverty, the drain of resources

into over-sized bureaucracy and

security sectors, and the need for

greater governmental transparency

and political reform. The event, held at the Raes Hotel, formed part of the IISSAsia seminar series, spon-

sored by the Australian Department of Defence. The audience included Singapore-based ambassadors and

high commissioners as well as IISS members. The Prince also discussed the challenges arising out of climate

change and the upstream damming of the Mekong River. On foreign policy, he discussed Cambodias no

enemies aitude towards the major powers. He stressed that greater transparency with regard to Beijings

military programmes would be welcome, and went on to tackle the severe deterioration in bilateral rela -

tions with neighbouring Thailand since 2008, highlighting the role of second-track institutions in keeping

open channels of communication between Phnom Penh and Bangkok.

Dr Ron Huisken, Senior Fellow, Strategic and Deence

Studies Centre, Australian National University

Regional Security Architecture workshop, session The Six-Party Talks, SCO and

Shangri-La Dialogue (l to r): Go Ito, Meiji University; Wang Dong, Peking University; Tim

Huxley, IISSAsia Executive Director; and Adam Ward, IISS Director o Studies

Participants (l to r): Dr Sheng Lijun, Lee Kuan Yew School o Public Policy, National

University o Singapore; Dr Tan See Seng, S. Rajaratnam School o International Studies,

Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; Dr Malcolm Cook, Lowy Institute, Sydney

Prince Norodom Sirivudh and Dr Tim Huxley

launched former ASEAN Secretary-General Rodolfo Severinos new book on

the ASEAN Regional Forum. IISS Director of Studies Adam Ward and ISEAS

Deputy Director Chin Kin Wah provided closing comments.


17/20

I ISSASIA/DEFENcE ANAlySIS


The Brazilian National DeenceStrategyOn 21 October, Lieutenant-General

Sergio Westphalen Etchegoyen,

Special Military Adviser to the

Brazilian Secretary of State for

Defence and Head of the National

Defence Strategy Implementation

Centre, spoke on The Brazilian

National Defence Strategy. Lt-Gen.

Etchegoyen described the factors

that prompted Brazil to produce

the strategy, its main points, and

current implementation including

the developing posture of Brazils

armed forces. This discussion was

chaired by James Hacke, Editor of

The Military Balance and Head of the

Defence Analysis Department.

Seminar on the TrilateralStrategic DialogueOn 26 October, Sheldon Simon, Professor of Political Science at Arizona State University, spoke on

The Trilateral Strategic Dialogue and its Relevance for Southeast Asia in the IISSAsia seminar

series. Since 2005, Japan, Australia and the United States have been engaged in a three-way exer-

cise designed to bring Americas closest Asia-Pacic allies together as strategic partners. Professor

Simon examined the signicance of this strategic hub, and discussed Southeast Asian states con-

cern that it could detract from other regional security arrangements, notably the ASEAN Regional

Forum.

Deence AnalysisGroup Captain Ian Shields, Assistant Head of Air

& Space Development at the Ministry of Defences

Concepts & Doctrine Centre, spoke on The Future

Air and Space Operational Concept as part of the

IISS Defence Analysis Forum on 7 October. Gp

Capt. Shields discussed the concepts analysis of

how air and space assets might be organised to

respond to future threats. He also noted how the

concept aims to judge when emergent technologies

might enter front-line service and the impact they

will have. The meeting was chaired by Andrew

Brookes, Aerospace Analyst.

IN BRIEF: Defence Analysis

James Hackett Editor o The Military Balance and

Head o the Deence Analysis Department, chaired

a roundtable meeting or Lt-Gen. Eduardo Villas

Boas, Deputy Chie o Sta o the Brazilian Army,

on 12 October. Gen Villas Boas met a number o IISSsta and discussed a range o security issues con-

cerning Brazil. In December, James attended the

Manama Dialogue with Jason Alderwick, Maritime

Analyst, who maintains his close liaison with UK

and international maritime stas. On 14 October,

Andrew Brookes, Aerospace Analyst and Nigel

Adderley, Ground Forces Analyst, participated in

a roundtable meeting with a delegation rom the

Korean National Deence University, which waschaired by Alexander Nicoll, Director o Editorial.

Andrew Brookes has become Director o the Air

League ater serving the IISS or 11 years.

Group Captain Ian Shields

Proessor Sheldon Simon

Lieutenant General Sergio Westphalen Etchegoyen

IN BRIEF

IISSAsia

Dr Tim Huxley, Executive Director o IISSAsia,

was in Berlin at the end o October or the Berlin

Conerence on Asian Security 2009, where he

spoke on condence-building and confict resolu-tion in Southeast Asia. In mid November, he was

in Washington DC or the IISS workshop on Major

Power Dynamics in Asia: Implications or Small and

Medium-sized Powers. In early December, he took

part in the Australian governments conerence in

Sydney, to discuss its proposal or an Asia-Pacic

community.

With eect rom 1 November Sarah Raine

became a Research Fellow or Chinese Foreign and

Security Policy. Sarah will continue to be basedat IISSAsia in Singapore but, with this change in

title, she will be an asset to be drawn into cross-

IISS research initiatives, and in that spirit will visit

Arundel House rom time to time. Meanwhile,

she has been continuing her research activities in

the region. In early November she visited Beijing,

speaking at a workshop on ChinaUS Grand

Strategy hosted by Peking Universitys Center or

International and Strategic Studies. Later in the

month, she was in Hanoi speaking at a conerenceon sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea,

organised by the Diplomatic Academy o Vietnams

Ministry o Foreign Aairs and the Vietnam Lawyers

Association.


18/20

EURoPEAN SEcURITy


European SecurityForesightOn 28 September, the IISS and its project partners organised a day-long

workshop examining the interaction between technological development

in the security eld and its societal and ethical implications. The workshop

was hosted by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) in Stockholm.

The event brought together some 50 experts from academia, government, the

armed forces and the private sector. It formed part of a European Commission-

funded project on future security trends for Europe (FORESEC). The specic

objectives of the workshop were to identify interdisciplinary research needs

in the area of security technology and policy and to identify measures that

enable security innovation to benet from collaboration with social science.

The workshop discussions focused on the themes explosives; chemical and

biological materials; information systems; border security; behavioural

sciences; and critical infrastructure. The results of the workshop fed into the

FORESEC Final Report entitled Cooperation in the Context of Complexity

which was briefed to European Commission ocials and other members

of the academic and policymaking community in Brussels on 9 November,

during a day-long FORESEC conference. The conference was addressed by the

2008 Nobel Peace laureate Mari Ahtisaari, who spoke about Europes role in

supporting global peace and stability. The conference was aended by some

75 experts and ocials and analysed how Europe could and should adapt to

global changes in the security environment before developing suggestions of

how to employ foresight methods in foreign-policy decision-making.

Visit o the Spanish HighDeence Studies College

On 11 November members and faculty of the 43rd Spanish National Defence

Course visited the IISS for briengs on European security issues. Dr Bastian

Giegerich, Research Fellow, European Security, IISS, spoke to the group on

the question of NATOEU cooperation for crisis-management operations.

Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk, IISS, ana-

lysed the tasks both the EU and NATO would have to tackle to deal with the

security implications of climate change and address the security challenges

posed by international terrorism and piracy. Alex Nicoll, Director of Editorial;

Editor of Strategic Survey; Editor of Strategic Comments , IISS, briefed on the

consequences of the economic and nancial crisis on defence cooperation in

Europe. The presentations were followed by an hour-long discussion with the

course participants.

Workshop: British andGerman Perspectives onNATOs Strategic ConceptOn 2627 November, the IISS, with the support of NATOs Public Diplomacy

Division, organised a workshop to compare British and German perspec-

tives on NATOs strategic concept due to be unveiled in 2010. While there is

a consensus among allies that a new concept is necessary to reect the chang -

ing international environment and NATOs activities, it seems as if agreement

on fundamental questions might still be lacking as several dividing lines have

emerged. Some Alliance members think of the new strategic concept mostly

as an eort of consolidation after successive rounds of enlargement, whereas

others favour a more radical rethinking of the old concept. In part, this discus-

sion reects dierent visions for NATOs position in the world: should NATO

come home and re-focus on the defence and security of allied territory, or seek to

expand its international footprint even more? Building consensus among allies

on such key issues is a central condition for a strong and meaningful strategic

concept that can serve as a robust guide for the Alliance in the times to come. To

further this goal, the workshop brought together some 30 experts and policy-

makers including a delegation from the German Institute for International and

Security Aairs (SWP). The workshop participants debated the dierent and

competing needs the new strategic concept would have to address, particularly

in light of diverging denitions of what allies see as the main purpose of NATO

today. The event saw a spirited debate on the roles NATO should take on vis--

vis security challenges such as climate change, piracy and cyberspace and also

on the question of how NATO should engage with Russia.

IN BRIEF: Dr Bastian Giegerich

Dr Bastian Giegerich, Research Fellow, European Security, visited Sweden rom

2429 September to speak on Challenges or European Security 2020 at a

conerence organised by the Riksbankens Jubileumsond and the University

o Gothenburg,

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IISS 2009 the Manama Dialogue

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