24
Elements of a Cis-lunar Economy ESIL-8 Workshop Jonathan Goff | Founder & CEO | [email protected] | 1 Apr 2016 1 Image Credit: ESA
Elements of a Cis-lunar Economy ESIL-8 Workshop
Jonathan Goff | Founder & CEO | [email protected] | 1 Apr 2016
1
Image Credit: ESA
Overview
• Electrical Analogy of Cis-lunar Commerce
• Transportation/Logistics Elements
• Resources
• Potential Markets 2
Electrical Analogy of Commerce (1/2)
• I = flow of commerce
• R = how hard it is to transport goods
• V= value of goods transported 3
Electrical Analogy of Commerce (2/2)
• When transportation networks are immature, only the highest value goods get transported
• As the transportation networks mature, commerce increases and diversifies, and subeconomic resources become economically viable
4
Current Round Trip Ticket Cost
• Apollo 11 Mission Marginal Cost: • $355M (1969 USD) • $2.4B (2016 USD) • $1-1.2B/person (depending on
how you count Michael Collins)
• CxP Per Lunar Mission Marginal Cost: $3B ?? • $500M/person?
• Space Adventures Lunar Flyby: $200M/person • And they claim they’ve got two
paying customers already
• Golden Spike Target Price: $750M/person
5 What would it take to get down to $20M/ticket?
$10M/ticket? $1M/ticket?
TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS ELEMENTS: LOWERING THE RESISTANCE TO CIS-LUNAR COMMERCE
6
Earth-to-Orbit Launch Vehicle Reuse
7
Knowing How Much G Humans Need?
http://selenianboondocks.com/category/variable-gravity/
8
?
Depots/Distributed Launch
9 http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Extended_Duration/PropellantDepots2009.pdf http://www.ulalaunch.com/uploads/docs/Published_Papers/Extended_Duration/Distributed-Launch-2015.pdf
Atmospheric Gathering
10
Aerobraking/Aerocapture
11 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/Kirtley_2012_PhI_PlasmaAerocapture.pdf
Real Spaceships
12
In-Situ Resource Utilization
13
Human/Robotic Teams
14
Propellantless Lunar Launch/Landing
15
RESOURCES
16
Lunar Resources
• Water/Propellant
• Other Volatiles
• Precious Metals
• Engineering Metals
• Bulk Material
• Light/Power
• Radio Shadow
• Vacuum
• Tourism/Settlement 17
CIS-LUNAR MARKETS: “IT’S TOUGH TO MAKE PREDICTIONS—ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE FUTURE” (YOGI BERRA) “I SKATE TO WHERE THE PUCK IS GOING, NOT WHERE IT HAS BEEN.” (WAYNE GRETZKY)
18
Satellite Manufacturing
• Most space revenue comes from sending and receiving photons • Communications/Internet • Earth Observation/Weather • Navigation
• Large space structures are one of the most valuable things today that could be made in space. • Rural cell-tour replacement constellation • High bandwidth global internet • Huge space/earth observation telescopes
19
Space Solar Power?
• Will be hard to compete with advanced fission or fusion
• May be useful for beamed power to aircraft? Or LEO commsats? Or Atmospheric gatherers? • Collocate with rural cell-tower replacement constellation?
• Transoceanic flight powering while satellites are over water?
20
Propellant
• Potential customers • Human and robotic
space exploration
• Sending spacecraft from LEO to BLEO destinations (eg MEO, GEO, EML1/2, Lunar Surface, Asteroids, etc)
• Lunar/Martian settlers
• Spacecraft Stationkeeping
• Deorbit services
21
• Very important to differentiate between propellant costs and propellant value
Settlement/Tourism
22
Cyclers
• For Lunar, Martian, and Venusian settlers, cyclers can dramatically lower the mass/person that has to be launched each time.
• Radiation shielding and good hab space are heavy, but relatively unsophisticated
• Could be a market for in-space manufacturing
23
