Immigration Goes NationwideImmigration Goes NationwideRecent immigrant dispersal has created Recent immigrant dispersal has created

national policy interestnational policy interest

William H. Frey

The University of Michigan and the Brookings Institution

Briefing,”Immigration Policy: Federal Debates and Local Realities”, US Capitol Building, March 24,

2006

Immigrants in the US, 1900 - 2005

14.2

9.6

35.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Source: US Census sources

in millions

Immigrant Share of US Population

4.7

12.1

14.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Source: US Census sources

Big Six States: Share of Immigrant Gains

61

Big Six Rest of US

54

1990-2000 2000-2005

Source: William H. Frey

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

1990 2005

Rest of US

Illinois

New Jersey

Texas

Florida

New York

California

Immigration Spreads Beyond Traditional Magnet States

19.7 m

35.1 m

Source: William H. Frey

Source: William H.Frey

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

NorthCarolina

Tennessee Georgia Nevada Arizona Iowa Nebraska Colorado

Immigrant Growth, 1990-2005

Fast Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations 1990-2005

State Immigrant Growth, 1990-2005

200% or more growthBtn 100% and 199% growthTraditional immigrant gatewayAll other states

Source: William H. Frey

States with at least 5% Immigrants

17

26

29

0 10 20 30 40

1990

2000

2005

Source: William H. Frey

Immigrant Concentrations in States

15% or more

10-14%

5-9%

Less than 5%

1990 2005

Source: William H. Frey

States with Most Undocumented Immigrants

?

?

Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center

Hispanics and AsiansRecent Immigrants vs Native Born 2005

52%

22%

26%

Hispanics Asians Other

14%

4%

82%

Recent Immigrants Native Born

Source: William H. Frey

Hispanic and Asian Adults by Generation

57%13%

30%

Foreign Born 2nd Gen 3rd+Gen

79%

13%

8%

Hispanics Asians

Source: William H. Frey

Growth Rates , 2000-2010

2.8

33.3

12.9

34.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Hispanics Asians Blacks Whites

Source: William H. Frey

At Least 5% Hispanic

States Counties

1990 16 538

2005 28 907

Source: William H. Frey

Source: William H. Frey

STATES: Fastest Hispanic Growth 2000-04

% Growth

1. Arkansas 37.7 2. South Dakota 37.3 3. South Carolina 35.7 4. Georgia 35.7 5. North Carolina 35.0 6. Tennessee 33.4 7. Nevada 32.7 8. New Hampshire 32.7 9. Maine 32.0

Source: William H. Frey

Metros: Fastest Hispanic Growth, 2000-04

1. Cape Coral-Ft Myers, FL 55.4 2. Charlotte 49.8 3. Raleigh 46.7 4. Nashville 44.9 5. Indianapolis 44.3 6. Atlanta 41.0 7. Naples, FL 38.7 8. Lakeland, FL 38.3 9. Sarasota, FL 38.010. Las Vegas 35.1

Source: William H. Frey

States: Fastest Asian growth, 2000-04

1. Nevada 35.2 2. New Hampshire 32.5 3. Delaware 27.4 4. Georgia 26.8 5. Florida 24.4 6. Connecticut 24.4 7. North Carolina 24.2 8. Arizona 24.2 9. Arkansas 23.010. New Jersey 21.7

Source: William H. Frey

Metros: Fastest Asian Growth, 2000-04

1. Las Vegas 38.5 2. Riverside 31.1 3. Orlando 30.2 4. Atlanta 28.5 5. Stockton, CA 28.4 6. Tampa-St.Pete 28.4 7. Austin 28.2 8. Phoenix 27.0 9. Sacramento 25.610. Dallas 24.8

Source: William H. Frey

Suburban Co. Growth, 2000-04Hispanic and Asian Contributions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Williamson Co.TX

Loudon Co. VA

Kendall Co. IL

Forsyth Co. GA

Douglas Co. CO

Hispanic Asian

34%

37%

27%

20%

15%

Source: William H. Frey

Metro Growth, 2000-04Hispanic and Asian Contributions

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Houston

Dallas

Phoenix

Orlando

Las Vegas

Hispanic Asian

72%

68%

56%

54%

53%

Source: William H. Frey

Central County Changes, 2000-04Race-Ethnic Contributions

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Queens, NY Wayne Co, MI King Co. WA

Hispanics

Asians

Blacks

Whites

Source: William H. Frey

 

TraditionalMagnets

NewDestination States

2005 Shares

Immigrants 20% 9%

Hispanics 26% 11%

Asians 7% 2%

2000-04 Growth

Immigrants 10% 33%

Hispanics 15% 26%

Asians 16% 28%

Source: William H. Frey

Shares versus Growth

Source: William H. Frey

Year of Immigrant Arrival: Traditional Magnets versus New Destinations*

Traditional Magnets

1990-991980-89

before 1980

2000-05

*Traditional Magnets are California, New York, Florida, Texas, Illinois and New Jersey. New Destinations are North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska, and Colorado.

New Destinations

1990-99

1980-89

before 19802000-05

20%31%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Under 15

15-39

40-64

65 +

Hispanic Asian Others

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Under 15

15-39

40-64

65 +

Hispanic and Asian Shares by Age Group

Source: William H. Frey

3%

6%

12%

12%

California Georgia

27%

37%

54%

57%

Immigrants vs Natives: 2005

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Hispanics: BlueCollar Workers

Blue CollarWorkers*

Hispanics: Povertyand Near Poverty

Poverty and NearPoverty**

Immigrants in New Destinations.

Immigrants in Traditional Magnets

US Native Born

Source: William H. Frey

GT 40%Other

Source: Jeffery Passel, Pew Hispanic Center

Where Undocumented Dominate Foreign Born

Desired US Immigration Levels

5.2 6.2

47.156.8

14.17.8

33.6 29.3

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Traditional MagnetStates

New DestinationStates

Present

Increased

Decreased

Don't Know

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005

3 Year Work Permits for Illegal Immigrants?

6.4 3.4

54.571.9

39.124.7

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

TraditionalMagnet States

New DestinationStates

Allowed

Not Allowed

Don't Know

Source: William H. Frey analysis of CBS News Poll, July 29-Aug 2, 2005

Hispanics: 2004 Total vs Voter Shares

45

3733

2923

20 19

34

2216

12 10 9 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

NewMexico

Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida

Total

Voters

Source: William H.Frey

Useful Websites

Source: William H. Frey

www.CensusScope.org

www.frey-demographer.org