Impact of Prescribed burning In the Flint Hills...

Biological and Agricultural Engineering 1

Impact of Prescribed burning In the Flint Hills Region

Dr. Zifei Liu

[email protected]

May 10th, 2018

2

The

public

K-State,

KDHE

Land

managers

How will smoke

affect me?Why burning

is important?

How to reduce smoke impact?

3

April 16, 2018

4

• The impact of smoke

• The ozone story

• Why do we burn? When is the best time to burn?

• Monitoring smoke using drone

Outline

5

The impact of smoke

6

Source: Kansas Geological Survey

Open-file Report 2016-1

Flint Hills Discovery Center Foundation

Largest remaining intact

tallgrass prairie

7 million acres of rangeland

Approximately 1/3 of the

rangeland are burned each year

21 counties in Kansas and

Oklahoma

7https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map

Satellite fires, 4/1 to 5/1, 2017

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) fire products

Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS)

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map

8

Acres burned

0

1

2

3

4

Acr

es b

urn

ed (

Mil

lion

)Average: 2.1 Million acres

Median: 2.5 Million acres

(Mohler and Goodin, 2012)

Smoke is mainly a product of incomplete combustion

9

• Unburned fuel or fuel

degradation products such

as aromatic hydrocarbon

Fuel

(C/H/O)O2

• Partially oxidized products

such as CO

CO2 and H2O

+ Incomplete

combustion

Complete

combustion

Organic

irritants

Toxic

Form O3 in the presence of sunlight

Complete combustion

70-90% PM2.5

10

Smoke and air quality

Combustion

CO NOx

PM

H2O SVOC

CO2

VOC

11

Air pollutantsObserved concentrations in literature NAAQS

24-hr

standardsAt the fires At downwind communities

PM2.5 148-6865 μg/m3 63-400 μg/m3 35 μg/m3

The Tallgrass monitoring site

12

Biological and Agricultural Engineering

Five PM2.5 source categories at the Tallgrass site

(Results from Unmix receptor modeling)

13

11%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

PM

2.5

(µ

g/m

3)

U5:Secondary organic particles

U4:Primary smoke particles

U3:Crustal/soil

U2:Sulfate/industrial

U1:Nitrate/agricultural

11%

49%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


PM

2.5

(µ

g/m

3)

U5:Secondary organic particles

U4:Primary smoke particles

U3:Crustal/soil

U2:Sulfate/industrial

U1:Nitrate/agricultural

Five PM2.5 source categories at the Tallgrass site

(Results from PMF receptor modeling)

14

41%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


PM

2.5

(µg

/m3)

P5:Traffic/SOA

P4:Smoke

P3:Crustal/soil

P2:Sulfate/industrial

P1:Nitrate/agricultural

15

U4-Primary smoke particles

16

U5-Secondary organic particles

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

PM

2.5

(µ

g/m

3)

Daily PM2.5 at the Tallgrass site

24hr PM2.5 standard

18

Highest daily PM2.5 in April vs. acres burned(Tallgrass site, 2002-2014)

R² = 0.1744

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

PM2.5

(μg/m3)

Acres burned (Million)

2010

2014 2003

2005

2009

20082011

24hr PM2.5 standard

19

Smoke PM2.5 at the Tallgrass site and the Kansas City site in April (in µg/m3)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7N

N

E

E

S

E

S

S

W

W

N

W

FH PMF smoke(FH-P4)

KC PMF smoke(KC-P4)

Tallgrass site

Kansas City site

In April, on average,

smoke contributed

4.4 g/m3 at Tallgrass site, and

1.1 g/m3 at Kansas City site.

20

• Size near the wavelength of

visible light (0.4-0.7µm) can

efficiently scatter light and

reduce visibility.

• Can reach deeper into

human respiration system

Human hair (50-70μm)

PM10

(10μm)

PM2.5

(2.5μm)

21

OC ~60-70%

EC ~2-20%

Inorganic ash

~10-30%

Composition of smoke PM

Smoke PM

could be more

damaging to

human health

than normal

urban particles.

22

Observed VOC/SVOC in literature NIOSH or

OSHA 8-hr

exposure

limitsAt the fires At downwind communities

Acrolein 0.018-0.071ppm 0.009 ppm 0.1 ppm

Formaldehyde 0.03-0.47 ppm 0.02-0.047 ppm 0.016 ppm

Isocyanic acid - 600 ppb -

PAHs - - 200 μg/m3

• BaP 0.10-0.16 μg/m3 0.007 μg/m3 -

• Acenaphthene 0.57-1.53 μg/m3 0.83-0.89 μg/m3 -

• Naphthalene 0-3.27 μg/m3 0-3.53 μg/m3 -

• Phenanthrene 0.38 μg/m3 - -

23

Air pollutantsObserved mixing ratios in literature NAAQS

8-hr


CO 1-140 ppm 1-6 ppm 9 ppm

24

Air pollutantsObserved mixing ratios in literature NAAQS

8-hr


O3 - Up by 50 ppb 70 ppb

• Strong oxidant that damages cells lining the respiratory system

• Cough

• Sore or scratchy throat

• Pain with deep breath, or chest pain

• Fatigue

• Aggravation of lung diseases

Formation of O3

25

(VOCs NOx)

O3

Existing

pollutants in airSmoke

(VOCs, NOx)

Evolution of O3 standards

26

8-hour 1-hour

1979 120ppb

1997 80ppb

2008 75ppb

2015 70ppb

55

60

65

70

75

80

02-04

Average

03-05

Average

04-06

Average

05-07

Average

06-08

Average

08-10

Average

09-11

Average

10-12

Average

11-13

Average

12-14

Average

Kansas City JFK Heritage park Leavanworth

Wichita HD Peck Sedgwick

Topeka KNI Cedar Bluff

Kansas 8hr O3 design values (ppb)

27(Data from KDHE, 2010 and 2015. 5-Year Ambient Air Monitoring Network Assessment )

New standard

Old standard

Consequences of nonattainment

28

• Enhanced emissions

inventory

• Photochemical

modeling

• Economic development

curtailed

State Implementation

Plan (SIP)Transportation

conformityContingency

measures

• Potential for loss of

highway funds and

restrictions on how

highway funds can

be spent.

• Expanded burning

restrictions

29

The O3 story

30

CO, VOC, Aerosol,

Carbon cycle

O3

Climate

Temperature

Humidity

Dynamics

RF

(UV+IR)L

igh

tenin

g

Precip

itation

Tem

peratu

re

CO2

CH4

BC

RF

N2O

RF

Biomass burning

NOx,

Nitrogen cycle

Interaction of fire, atmospheric composition and climate in the earth system

(RF: radiative forcing)

Nine O3 monitoring sites

31

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1/1/2002 1/1/2003 1/1/2004 1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013

O3

(pp

b)

8hr O3 standard

Daily max 8hr O3 at the Konza Praire site (2002-2013)

33

O3(d) = c1+c2 sin2𝜋 𝑑+283

365

+c3 [O3 on the previous day]

+c4 [Air temperature]

+c5 [Solar radiation]

-c6 [Relative humidity]

-c7 [Wind speed]

O3 regression models

R2=0.66 to 0.76

34

8hr O3 standard

Daily max 8hr O3 at the Konza Praire site (2002-2013)

35

8hr O3 standard

Daily max 8hr O3 at the Wichita Health Department site (2001-2016)

36

Multi-year average O3 at different sites

(non-rainy days in April )

Measured O3 (ppb)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Modeled O3 (ppb)

53.2------------------

50.1

48.9------------------

47.2

43.9------------------

43.550.5------------------

48.147.7

------------------

47.0

46.2------------------

45.2

47.6------------------

46.4

49.6------------------

48.3

Highest model R2 at

Cedar Bluff, lowest

burning interference,

R2=0.76

48.3------------------

47.6

49.2------------------

47.7

Average O3 model residuals in April (non-rainy days) (Likely due to burning)

37

Konza Prairie site 3.1 ppb

Topeka site 2.4 ppb

Three Wichita sites 0.7, 1.3, 1.7 ppb

Three Kansas City sites 0.4, 1.2, 1.5 ppb

Cedar Bluff site 0.7 ppb

Biological and Agricultural Engineering

2001-2016

38

Average of days with

O3>70ppb in April

(47 days in total)April average

Daily Max 8hr O3 77±5 ppb 43.9-53.2 ppb

O3 on the previous day 60±11 ppb -

Daily maximum air temperature 24.5±4.5 ºC 20.7±5.5 ºC

Tmax-Tmin 16.6±5.3 ºC 12.3±5.0 ºC

Solar radiation 738±279 Langley 607±304 Langley

Relative humidity 54±10 % 67±14 %

Wind speed 3.4±1.8 m/s 4.1±2.0 m/s

O3 model residuals 21±9 ppb -

Likely due to burning

39

Acres burned vs. highest 8hr O3 in April

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

1

2

3

4

O3

(ppb)

Acres

burned

(Million)

40

Acres burned vs. highest 8hr O3 in April

y = 9.4711x + 58.589

R² = 0.6283

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

O3

(ppb)


2013

2012

2007

2002

2004

2006

2001

2015 2010

2014 2011

2016

2008

2003

2009

2005

2017

For every one million increase of burn acres, the highest 8-hour

O3 mixing ratios increased around 9 ppb.

41

Acres burned vs. # of days with 8hr O3 >70ppb in April

R² = 0.4323

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4

# of days with

O3 >70ppb


2013 2012

2007

2002 2015

2001, 2004

2006

2005

2010 2008

2011

2014

2009

2016

2017

When the acres burned were larger than or equal to 1.9 million,

O3>70 ppb occurred in April at least at one of the ten monitoring sites.

42

Fire count vs. highest 8hr O3 in April

R² = 0.7067

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

O3

(ppb)

Fire count

2016

2013

2002

2007

2012

2001 2003

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011

2014

2015

2017

30

50

70

90

110

0

1

2

3

4

O3

(ppb)

Acres

burned

(Million)

43

2/15-5/15, 2002 2/15-5/15, 2003 2/15-5/15, 2004

2/15-5/15, 2005 2/15-5/15, 2006 2/15-5/15, 2007


2/15-5/15, 2008 2/15-5/15, 2009 2/15-5/15, 2010

2/15-5/15, 2011 2/15-5/15, 2012 2/15-5/15, 2013

30

50

70

90

110

0

1

2

3

4

O3

(ppb)

Acres

burned

(Million)


April 10, 2015 April 3-4, 2016 April 13, 2016

Sedgwick O3: 78ppb

Wichita O3: 103ppb Topeka O3: 64ppbChanute O3: 77ppb

2/15-5/15, 2014 2/15-5/15, 2015 2/15-5/15, 2016

30

50

70

90

110

0

1

2

3

4

O3

(ppb)

Acres

burned

(Million)

46

Daily fire count vs. highest 8hr O3 in April

R² = 0.2968

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 375 750 1125

O3

(ppb)

Daily fire count

• When daily fire count >750, O3>70 ppb occurred in all the 7 days.

• When daily fire count is between 375 to 750, O3>70 ppb occurred in 15 out of 27

days (56%).

• When daily fire count is between 1 to 375, O3>70 ppb occurred in 27 out of 347

days (8%).

• When daily fire count is 0, O3>70 ppb did not occur.

47

y = 1480.2x

R² = 0.7472

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

0 1 2 3 4

Fire

count


• When daily burned acres >0.5M, O3>70 ppb is most likely to occur.

• When daily burned acres is between 0.25M to 0.5M, the chance of

O3>70 ppb is 56%.

• When daily burned acres <0.25M, the chance of O3>70 ppb is 8%.

• When there is no burning, O3>70 ppb is not likely to occur.

1500 fire count

≈ 1 million acres burned

48

Daily fire count vs. highest 8hr O3 in April

R² = 0.2968

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 375 750 1125

O3

(ppb)

Daily fire count

• When daily burned acres >0.5M, O3>70 ppb is most likely to occur.

• When daily burned acres is between 0.25M to 0.5M, the chance of

O3>70 ppb is 56%.

• When daily burned acres <0.25M, the chance of O3>70 ppb is 8%.

• When there is no burning, O3>70 ppb is not likely to occur.

49

When daily fire count is between 375 to 750,

or daily burned acres is between 0.25M to 0.5M

Average

(7 days)April average

Daily maximum air

temperature22.5±5.0 ºC 20.7±5.5 ºC

Solar radiation 638±218 Langley 607±304 Langley

Relative humidity 51±6 % 67±14 %

Wind speed 2.0±0.7 m/s 4.1±2.0 m/s

50

When daily fire count >750,

or daily burned acres >0.5M


O3>70ppb

(15 days)


O3<70ppb

(12 days)

April average

Daily maximum

air temperature24.4±5.4 ºC 19.2±4.1 ºC 20.7±5.5 ºC

Solar radiation 697±244 Langley 596±98 Langley 607±304 Langley

Relative humidity 54±10 % 54±12 % 67±14 %

Wind speed 2.4±1.1 m/s 2.9±1.2 m/s 4.1±2.0 m/s

51

When daily fire count is between 1 and 375,

or daily burned acres < 0.25M


O3>70ppb

(27 days)


O3<70ppb

(320 days)

April average

Daily maximum

air temperature24.8±3.8 ºC 20.4±6.5 ºC 20.7±5.5 ºC

Solar radiation 705±268 Langley 610±283 Langley 607±304 Langley

Relative humidity 58±11 % 62±13 % 67±14 %

Wind speed 4.0±1.9 m/s 4.2±2.0 m/s 4.1±2.0 m/s

50 52 54 56 58 60

52

Modeling O3 (ppb) in April

Fire count 82±166

O3 on the previous day 55±11 ppb

Daily maximum air

temperature20.7±5.5 ºC

Solar radiation 607±304 Langley

Wind speed 4.1±2.0 m/s

Relative humidity 67±14 %

R2=0.55

April average

53

When seasonal burned acres is <1.5 million

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)Fire

count

2012 Fire count Ozone

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)Fire

count


54

When seasonal burned acres is <1.5 million

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)Fire

count


55

When seasonal burned acres is between 1.5 and 2.5 million

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


56


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


57


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


58

When seasonal burned acres >2.5 million

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


59


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


60


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


61


50

60

70

80

90

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

O3

(ppb)

Fire

count


62

Highest 8hr O3 in April vs. acres burned at the three sites around Wichita

Wichita Health

Department site

(2001-2017)

Sedgwick site

(2009-2017)

Peck site

(2001-2017)

y = 7.468x + 54.12

R² = 0.5596

50

70

90

110

0 1 2 3 4

O3

(ppb)


y = 8.0796x + 56.15

R² = 0.3571

50

70

90

110

0 1 2 3 4

O3

(ppb)


y = 5.6835x + 55.387

R² = 0.2912

50

70

90

110

0 1 2 3 4

O3

(ppb)


63

Highest 8hr O3 in April vs. acres burned at the three sites around Kansas City

Kansas City

JFK site

(2001-2017)

Leavenworth site

(2004-2017)

Heritage Park site

(2004-2017)

y = 1.211x + 60.766

R² = 0.032

50

70

90

110

0 1 2 3 4

O3

(ppb)


y = 2.4717x + 60.959

R² = 0.1023

50

70

90

110

0 1 2 3 4

O3

(ppb)


y = 1.7192x + 62.581

R² = 0.0734

50

70

90

110

0 1 2 3 4

O3

(ppb)


64

Acres

burned

(Million)

Before the SMP was implemented After the SMP was implemented

Year

# of days

with 8hr

O3>70 ppb

Highest

8hr O3

Year

# of days

with 8hr

O3>70 ppb

Highest

8hr O3

<1.92002

2007

0

1

64

73

2012

2013

0

0

64

62

1.9-2.0

2001

2004

2006

2

2

4

76

74

78

2015 1 77

2.4-2.5 2010 3 822014

2017

2

0

85

70

2.7-2.8

2003

2008

2011

2

1

4

76

74

84

2016 1 103

3.2-3.52005

2009

3

3

77

95

O3 levels in April before and after the Flint Hills Smoke Management Plan (SMP)

(based on measurements from the nine regulatory monitoring sites in Kansas)

65

Why do we burn?When is the best time to burn?

66

Management objectives

Timing of burns

Fire safety

• Forage production

• Plant species composition

• Soil moisture

• Cattle weight gain

• Relative humidity

• Wind speed

• Wind direction

• Continuous burn window

67(Towne and Craine, 2016)

Does burning have to be restricted to a narrow window in April?

• Forage production (McMurphy and Anderson, 1963; Owensby and

Anderson, 1967); little statistical basis

• Plant composition Burn earlier in the spring increases cool-season

grasses and has little impact on warm-season grasses

• Woody species No scientific data indicated April burning is superior;

frequent burning is most important

• Soil moisture

• Animal performance Only one problematic study (Anderson et al., 1970);

potentially misleading

Much of the data are equivocal

68

How many days are actuallyavailable to conduct prescribed burns?

• 8am to 6pm

• T=1.7 to 43.3ºC

• RH=25 to 80%

• V=1.07 to 4.02 m/s

• No rain

• 3-hour continuous burn

window

Based on Oklahoma Mesonet hourly weather data (Weir, 2011)

Burn day

69

• A 20-year study that looks at the consequences of

burning Flint Hills prairie at different times of the year.

• It finds that burning outside of the current late spring

time frame has no measurable negative consequences

for the prairie and, in fact, may have multiple benefits.

Burning outside the traditional burn season?

(Towne and Craine, 2014)

70

• Although early studies considered any increase in cool-

season grasses as undesirable, that response could

actually be beneficial.

Burning outside the traditional burn season?

(Towne and Craine, 2016)

• A mix of fire seasons, may be necessary to maintain

prairie diversity.

(USDA, 2009)

• Most land management objectives can be achieved

with growing-season burns.

(Weir et al., 2011)

The goal

71

• Keep prescribed burning, but burn in

a manner that minimize adverse

environmental and social effects.

Objectives • To avoid exceedances of the NAAQS.

• To receive an exemption/flag in the

event of an exceedance of the

NAAQS (Exceptional Event).

NAAQS: National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Reduce impact of smokeReduce smoke production

• Frequency of burns

• Managing fuel load and

fuel moistures

• Ignition and burn technique

• Reduce smoldering

• Timing of burns

– Allow for adequate smoke

dispersion

– Minimize exposure of

sensitive populations

– Avoid high O3 day

Two strategies

72

Management objectives

Timing of burns

Fire safety

Smoke dispersion

Sensitive populations

Avoid high O3

Smoke modeling tools

? 73

74

Monitoring smoke using drone

75

• Define sampling packages and standard operating

procedures that can be used on unmanned aircraft

systems (UAS) for the collection of smoke emission and

meteorological data.

• Collect smoke emissions data to develop smoke

emission factors that best represent the Flint Hills fires

and compare to the current FCCS fuelbed#131 to

determine if the current defaults are representative.

• Collect black carbon and thermal image data to ground-

verify the models NASA have created from MODIS and

VHRRS satellite data.

Objectives of the test

76

The sampling packagesDrone: K-State Polytech DJI S1000 multi-rotor (8 rotors) aircraft

Drone#1: Continuous measurements

O3: POM, 2B Tech.;

PM2.5 : MIE pDR-1500, Thermo Sci.

Drone#2: Integrated measurements

Sampling bags for NO/NOx/NO2, CO/CO2, and VOCs

PM: Air-O-Cell impactor

Drone#3: MA200 black carbon

monitor; Thermal sensor

77

Around 180 acres burned for the test

on April 16, 2018

78

79

Preliminary results

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