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What is technology?

The purposeful application of information in the design, production, and utilization of  goods and

services, and in the organization of human activities.

Technology is generally divided into five categories:

1. Tangible: blueprints, models, operate manuals, prototypes.

2. Intangible: consultancy,  problem-solving, and training methods.

3. igh: entirely or almost entirely automated and intelligent technology that manipulates

ever finer matter and ever po!erful forces.

". Intermediate: semi-automated partially intelligent technology that manipulates refined

matter and medium level forces.#. $o!: labor-intensive technology that manipulates only coarse or gross matter and !ea%er 

forces.

Why should we study future?

Ignorance is a valuable part of the future. If !e %no! the future !e !ould have little reason to

vote in an election, host a surprise party, or start something ne!. &nce a future is %no!n, !e

'uic%ly lose interest in trying to influence it. (or this reason, our greatest motivations in life

come from )&T %no!ing the future.

“Humanity will change more in the

next 20 years than in all of human history.”

 

If I ma%e the prediction that *+y 23 over of all crimes !ill be solved through video and

other forms of surveillance,/ a forecast li%e that causes several things to happen. (irst, you have

to decide if you agree that a certain percent of crimes !ill be solved that !ay. If so, it forces you

to thin% about ho! fast the surveillance industry is gro!ing, ho! invasive this might be, and

!hether privacy concerns might start to shift current trends in the other direction. 0ore

importantly, it forces you to consider the bigger picture, and !hether this is a desirable future. If 

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it reaches , ho! many police, udges, and la!yers !ill be out of a ob as a result of this ill

this create a fairer ustice system, a safer society, or a far scarier place to live

4o studying future and predictions about future is very important and relate !ith many things.

5onsidering the obs !e all %no! there !ill be a huge change in obs in coming years because of 

technological change.

• 6ll restaurants !ill use some form of a 37 food printer in their meal preparations.

• 6ll global financial transactions !ill be conducted through +itcoin -li%e crypto

currencies.

• e !ill see a gro!ing number of high!ays designated as driverless-vehicle only.

• 6 5hinese company !ill become the first to enter the space tourism industry by

establishing regular flights to their space hotel.

•

The !orld8s largest Internet 5ompany !ill be in the education business, and it !ill be acompany !e have not heard of yet.

• 6 ne! protest group !ill have emerged that holds anti-cloning rallies, demonstrating

against the creation of *soul-less humans./

• 4cientists !ill have perfected an active cross-species communication system, enabling

some species to tal% to each other as !ell as humans.

• e !ill see !ireless po!er used to light up invisible light bulbs in the middle of a room.

• e !ill see the first demonstration of a technology to control gravity, reducing the pull of 

gravity on an obect.

• 7emocracy !ill be vie!ed as inferior form of government.

• Traditional police forces !ill be largely automated out of e9istence.

• Traditional pharmaceuticals !ill be replaced by hyper-individualized medicines that are

manufactured at the time they are ordered.

• 5able television !ill no longer e9ist.

• It !ill be common to use ne9t generation search engines to search the physical !orld.

• +asic computer programming !ill be considered a core s%ill re'uired in all obs.

”Our children’s children, who haven’t

even been born yet, are counting on you!”

Technology and future jobs

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hat !ill obs loo% li%e in future and !hat s%ills !ill be in greatest demand azing into the

future may seem speculative, or even !himsical, because e9perience tells us that predictions

about !hat the !orld !ill loo% li%e years from no! are destined to be inaccurate.

(ast for!ard to !hat recent innovations. 7o you remember the ob called *travel agent/ and ho!

online, do-it-yourself, flight sites seemed to erase that career almost overnight Thin% about ho!

the even more recent phenomenon %no!n as cro!d-sourcing ;i.e. letting the user community do

things that !ere once reserved for a select fe!< is starting to have a profound impact on the

economy. =ber, $yft, and other transportation mobile apps are forcing the ta9i industry to

improve availability and service or face e9tinction because of easy consumer access to cheaper,

higher 'uality, options. Thin% about ho! >elp has changed !hich services and products are

consumed by providing an easy !ay to read revie!s and learn more. 6nd, cloud-based hosting

services and do-it-yourself !ebsite creation tools have made it possible for anyone !ith a great

idea and a vision to thro! out a digital shingle and compete in the mar%etplace !ithout having to

invest in computer hard!are or designer services from a professional coder. hat does this

mean for the future labor mar%et The impact of technological innovation ta%es a !hile to

appear and has a different impact on each industry.

Innovation, the eli9ir of progress, has al!ays cost people their obs. In the Industrial ?evolution

artisan !eavers !ere s!ept aside by the mechanical loom. &ver the past 3 years the digitalrevolution has displaced many of the mid-s%ill obs that underpinned 2th-century middle-class

life. Typists, tic%et agents, ban% tellers and many production-line obs have been dispensed !ith,

 ust as the !eavers !ere.

(or those !ho believe that technological progress has made the !orld a better place, such churn

is a natural part of rising prosperity. 6lthough innovation %ills some obs, it creates ne! and

 better ones, as a more productive society becomes richer and its !ealthier inhabitants demand

more goods and services. 6 hundred years ago one in three 6merican !or%ers !as employed on

a farm. Today less than 2 of them produce far more food. The millions freed from the land

!ere not consigned to oblessness, but found better-paid !or% as the economy gre! more

sophisticated. Today the pool of typists has shrun%, but there are ever more computer 

 programmers and !eb designers.

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The digital revolution is transforming the process of innovation itself. Than%s to off-the-shelf 

code from the internet and platforms that host services ;such as 6mazon8s cloud computing<,

 provide distribution ;6pple8s app store< and offer mar%eting ;(aceboo%<, the number of digital

startups has e9ploded. @ust as computer-games designers invented a product that humanity never 

%ne! it needed but no! cannot do !ithout, so these firms !ill no doubt dream up ne! goods and

services to employ millions. +ut for no! they are singularly light on !or%ers. hen Instagram, a

 popular photo-sharing site, !as sold to (aceboo% for about A1 billion in 212, it had 3m

customers and employed 13 people. Boda%, !hich filed for ban%ruptcy a fe! months earlier,

employed 1"#, people in its heyday.

The problem is one of timing as much as anything. oogle no! employs "C, people. +ut it

ta%es years for ne! industries to gro!, !hereas the disruption a startup causes to incumbents is

felt sooner. 6irbnb may turn homeo!ners !ith spare rooms into entrepreneurs, but it poses a

direct threat to the lo!er end of the hotel business.

Than%s to the e9ponential rise in processing po!er and the ubi'uity of digitized information

;*big data/<, computers are increasingly able to perform complicated tas%s more cheaply and

effectively than people. 5lever industrial robots can 'uic%ly *learn/ a set of human actions.

4ervices may be even more vulnerable. 5omputers can already detect intruders in a closed-

circuit camera picture more reliably than a human can. +y comparing reams of financial or 

 biometric data, they can often diagnose fraud or illness more accurately than any number of 

accountants or doctors. &ne recent study by academics at &9ford =niversity suggests that "D

of today8s obs could be automated in the ne9t t!o decades.

(ast for!ard to 21", the year in !hich mobile is set to overta%e des%top to access the internet,

and !or% and leisure hours have become blurred by our increasingly Emobile8 lives ;TheFconomist, 212<. @obs are being done on the move, at any time of day, in almost any location.

This e9ample highlights the difficulties involved in forecasting change. >et, the !ay !e thin% 

about tomorro! influences !hat !e do today. e do not have definitive ans!ers about !hat is

around the corner but !e can try to systematically ma%e sense of the direction of travel in the

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labour mar%et and assess the %ey uncertainties that !e %no! e9ist. +y analyzing developments in

the =B labour mar%et no!, !e can start to position ourselves for the !or% needs and

opportunities of the future.

+ut !hat if, bac%ed !ith e9tensive and robust research, an assessment of the labour mar%et of the

future could serve as a basis for a debate around the challenges and opportunities individuals and

 businesses are li%ely to face

This %ind of e9ercise has never been more relevant as !e see% to ma%e sense of the future in a

landscape of rapid and profound change. (or e9ample, the potential disruptive impact on obs of 

advances in robotics, artificial intelligence and 3-7 printing is a focus for fierce debate. e may

also face the parado9 !here the emergence of a net!or%ed global talent pool seems to promise

ever more intense competition for opportunities at all levels of the =B !or%force, and at the

same time !e are also li%ely to face s%ills *vacuums/ !here !e are not fast enough at

developing s%ills for ne!ly emerging business fields.

The main !ay in !hich governments can help their people through this dislocation is through

education systems. &ne of the reasons for the improvement in !or%ers8 fortunes in the latter part

of the Industrial ?evolution !as because schools !ere built to educate themGa dramatic change

at the time. )o! those schools themselves need to be changed, to foster the creativity that

humans !ill need to set them apart from computers. There should be less rote-learning and morecritical thin%ing. Technology itself !ill help, !hether through 0&&5s ;massive open online

courses< or even video games that simulates the s%ills needed for !or%.

Innovation has brought great benefits to humanity. )obody in their right mind !ould !ant to

return to the !orld of handloom !eavers. +ut the benefits of technological progress are unevenly

distributed, especially in the early stages of each ne! !ave, and it is up to governments to spread

them. In the 1th century it too% the threat of revolution to bring about progressive reforms.

Today8s governments !ould do !ell to start ma%ing the changes needed before their people get

angry.

ey themes to be !oncerned

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ey themes" reasons to be ho#eful

1. 6dvances in technology may displace certain types of !or%, but historically they have

 been a net creator of obs.

2. e !ill adapt to these changes by inventing entirely ne! types of !or%, and by ta%ing

advantage of uni'uely human capabilities.

3. Technology !ill free us from day-to-day drudgery, and allo! us to define our relationship

!ith *!or%/ in a more positive and socially beneficial !ay.

". =ltimately, !e as a society control our o!n destiny through the choices !e ma%e.

ey themes" reasons to be concerned

1. Impacts from automation have thus far impacted mostly blue-collar employmentH the

coming !ave of innovation threatens to upend !hite-collar !or% as !ell.

2. 5ertain highly-s%illed !or%ers !ill succeed !ildly in this ne! environmentGbut far 

more may be displaced into lo!er paying service industry obs at best, or permanent

unemployment at !orst.

3. &ur educational system is not ade'uately preparing us for !or% of the future, and our 

 political and economic institutions are poorly e'uipped to handle these hard choices.

$obs and com#uteri%ation

&ver the past decades, computers have substituted for a number of obs, including the functions

of boo%%eepers, cashiers and telephone operators ;+resnahan, 1H 0I, 213<. 0ore recently,

the poor performance of labour mar%ets across advanced economies has intensified the debate

about technological unemployment among economists. hile there is ongoing disagreement

about the driving forces behind the persistently high unemployment rates, a number of scholars

have pointed at computer controlled e'uipment as a possible e9planation for recent obless

gro!th.

6t the same time, !ith falling prices of computing, problem-solving s%ills are becoming

relatively productive, e9plaining the substantial employment gro!th in occupations involving

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cognitive tas%s !here s%illed labour has a comparative advantage, as !ell as the persistent

increase in returns to education. 6ccording to +rynolfsson and 0c6fee ;211<, the pace of 

technological innovation is still increasing, !ith more sophisticated soft!are technologies

disrupting labour mar%ets by ma%ing !or%ers redundant. hat is stri%ing about the e9amples in

their boo% is that computerization is no longer confined to routine manufacturing tas%s. The

autonomous driverless cars, developed by oogle, provide one e9ample of ho! manual tas%s in

transport and logistics may soon be automated.

$ess than ten years ago, in the chapter *hy eople 4till 0atter/, $evy and 0urnane ;2"<

 pointed at the difficulties of replicating human perception, asserting that driving in traffic is

insusceptible to automation: *+ut e9ecuting a left turn against oncoming traffic involves so many

factors that it is hard to imagine discovering the set of rules that can replicate a driver8s behavior 

4i9 years later, in &ctober 21, oogle announced that it had modified several Toyota riuses

to be fully autonomous ;+rynolfsson and 0c6fee, 211<.

History of technological ad&ancements and em#loyment

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The concern over technological unemployment is hardly a recent phenomenon. Throughout

history, the process of creative destruction, follo!ing technological inventions, has created

enormous !ealth, but also undesired disruptions. 6s stressed by 4chumpeter ;1C2<, it !as not

the lac% of inventive ideas that set the boundaries for economic development, but rather po!erful

social and economic interests promoting the technological status 'uo.

 This is nicely illustrated by the e9ample of illiam $ee, inventing the stoc%ing frame %nitting

machine in 1#J, hoping that it !ould relieve !or%ers of hand-%nitting. 4ee%ing patent

 protection for his invention, he travelled to $ondon !here he had rented a building for his

machine to be vie!ed by Kueen Flizabeth I. To his disappointment, the Kueen !as more

concerned !ith the employment impact of his invention and refused to grant him a patent,

claiming that: *Thou aimest high, 0aster $ee. 5onsider thou !hat the invention could do to my

 poor subects. It !ould assuredly bring to them ruin by depriving them of employment, thus

ma%ing them beggars/ ;cited in 6cemoglu and ?obinson, 212, p. 1J2f<. 0ost li%ely the Kueen8s

concern !as a manifestation of the hosiers8 guilds fear that the invention !ould ma%e the s%ills

of its artisan members obsolete.# The guilds8 opposition !as indeed so intense that illiam $ee

had to leave +ritain.

6n important feature of nineteenth century manufacturing technologies is that they !ere largely

*des%illing/ L i.e. they substituted for s%ills through the simplification of tas%s ;+raverman,1D"H ounshell, 1J#H @ames and 4%inner, 1J#H oldin and Batz, 1J<. The des%illing

 process occurred as the factory system began to displace the artisan shop, and it pic%ed up pace

as production increasingly mechanized !ith the adoption of steam po!er ;oldin and 4o%oloff,

1J2H 6tac%, et al., 2Ja<.

or% that had previously been performed by artisans !as no! decomposed into smaller, highly

specialised, se'uences, re'uiring less s%ill, but more !or%ers, to perform. 4ome innovations

!ere even designed to be des%illing. (or e9ample, Fli hitney, a pioneer of interchangeable

 parts, described the obective of this technology as *to substitute correct and effective operations

of machinery for the s%ill of the artist !hich is ac'uired only by long practice and e9perienceH a

species of s%ill !hich is not possessed in this country to any considerable e9tent/ ;aba%%u%,

1C2, p. 22<. Together !ith developments in continuous-flo! production, enabling !or%ers to be

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stationary !hile different tas%s !eremoved to them, it !as identical interchangeable parts that

allo!ed comple9 products to be assembled from mass produced individual components by using

highly specialised machine tools to a se'uence of operations.

>et !hile the first assembly-line !as documented in 1J", it !as not until the late nineteenth

century that continuous-flo! processe started to be adopted on a larger scale, !hich enabled

corporations such as the (ord 0otor 5ompany to manufacture the T-(ord at a sufficiently lo!

 price for it to become the people8s vehicle ;0o%yr, 1, p. 13D<. 5rucially, the ne! assembly

line introduced by (ord in 113 !as specifically designed for machinery to be operated by

uns%illed !or%ers ;ounshell, 1J#, p. 23<. (urthermore, !hat had previously been a one-man

 ob !as turned into a 2-man !or%er operation, reducing the overall !or% time by 3" percent

;+right, 1#J<. The e9ample of the (ord 0otor 5ompany thus underlines the general pattern

observed in the nineteenth century, !ith physical capital providing a relative complement to

uns%illed labour, !hile substituting for relatively s%illed artisans ;@ames and 4%inner, 1J#H

$ouis and aterson, 1JCH +ro!n and hilips, 1JCH 6tac%, et al., 2"<.11 ence, as pointed out

 by 6cemoglu ;22, p. D<: *the idea that technological advances favor more s%illed !or%ers is a

t!entieth century phenomenon./ The conventional !isdom among economic historians, in other 

!ords, suggests a discontinuity bet!een the nineteenth and t!entieth century in the impact of 

capital deepening on the relative demand for s%illed labour.

The Technological re&olutions of the Twenty 'irst !entury"

 The secular price decline in the real cost of computing has created vast economic incentives for 

employers to substitute labour for computer capital. >et the tas%s computers are able to perform

ultimately depend upon the ability of a programmer to !rite a set of procedures or rules that

appropriately direct the technology in each possible contingency.

5omputers !ill therefore be relatively productive to human labour !hen a problem can bespecified L in the sense that the criteria for success are 'uantifiable and can readily be evaluated

;6cemoglu and 6utor, 211<. The e9tent of ob computerization !ill thus be determined by

technological advances that allo! engineering problems to be sufficiently specified, !hich sets

the boundaries for the scope of computerisation.

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Technological progress has been aided by the recent production of increasingly large and

comple9 datasets, %no!n as big data. (or instance, !ith a gro!ing corpus of human-translated

digitalised te9t, the success of a machine translator can no! be udged by its accuracy in

reproducing observed translations. 7ata from =nited )ations documents, !hich are translated by

hu-man e9perts into si9 languages, allo! oogle Translate to monitor and improve the

 performance of different machine translation algorithms ;Tanner, 2D<. (urther, 0$ algorithms

can discover une9pected similarities bet!een old and ne! data, aiding the computerization of 

tas%s for !hich big data has ne!ly become available. 6s a result, computerization is no longer 

confined to routine tas%s that can be !ritten as rule-based soft!are 'ueries, but is spreading to

every non-routine tas% !here big data becomes available ;+rynolfsson and 0c6fee, 211<. In

this section, !e e9amine the e9tent of future computerization beyond routine tas%s.

!om#uteri%ation in non(routine cogniti&e tas)s"

ith the availability of big data, a !ide range of non-routine cognitive tas%s are becoming

computerisable. That is, further to the general improvement in technological progress due to big

data, algorithms for big data are rapidly entering domains reliant upon storing or accessing

information. The use of big data is afforded by one of the chief comparative advantages of 

computers relative to human labor: scalability. $ittle evidence is re'uired to demonstrate that, in

 performing the tas% of laborious computation, net!or%s of machines scale better than human

labour ;5ampbell-Belly, 2<. 6s such, computers can better manage the large calculations

re'uired in using large datasets. 0$ algorithms running on computers are no!, in many cases,

 better able to detect patterns in big data than humans.

5omputerisation of cognitive tas%s is also aided by another core comparative advantage of 

algorithms: their absence of some human biases. 6n algorithm can be designed to ruthlessly

satisfy the small range of tas%s it is given. umans, in contrast, must fulfill a range of tas%s

unrelated to their occupation, such as sleeping, necessitating occasional sacrifices in their 

occupational performance ;Bahneman, et al., 1J2<. The additional constraints under !hich

humans must operate manifest themselves as biases. 5onsider an e9ample of human bias:

7anziger, et al. ;211< demonstrates that e9perienced Israeli udges are substantially more

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generous in their rulings follo!ing a lunch brea%. It can thus be argued that many roles involving

decision-ma%ing !ill benefit from impartial algorithmic solutions.

(raud detection is a tas% that re'uires both impartial decision ma%ing and the ability to detect

trends in big data. 6s such, this tas% is no! almost com pletely automated ;hua, et al., 21<. In

a similar manner, the comparative advantages of computers are li%ely to change the nature of 

!or% across a !ide range of industries and occupations.

In health care, diagnostics tas%s are already being computerised. &ncologists at 0emorial 4loan-

Bettering 5ancer 5enter are, for e9ample, using I+08s atson computer to provide chronic care

and cancer treatment diagnostics.

Bno!ledge from C, medical evidence reports, 1.# million patient records and clinical trials,and t!o million pages of te9t from medical ournals, are used for benchmar%ing and pattern

recognition purposes. This allo!s the computer to compare each patient8s individual symptoms,

genetics, family and medication history, etc., to diagnose and develop a treatment plan !ith the

highest probability of success ;5ohn, 213<.

In addition, computerisation is entering the domains of legal and financial services. 4ophisticated

algorithms are gradually ta%ing on a number of tas%s performed by paralegals, contract and

 patent la!yers ;0ar%off, 211<. 0ore specifically, la! firms no! rely on computers that can

scan thousands of legal briefs and precedents to assist in pre-trial research. 6 fre'uently cited

e9ample is 4ymantec8s 5lear!ell system, !hich uses language analysis to identify general

concepts in documents, can present the results graphically, and proved capable of analysing and

sorting more than #D, documents in t!o days;0ar%off, 211<.

(urthermore, the improvement of sensing technology has made sensor data one of the most

 prominent sources of big data ;6c%erman and uizzo, 211<. 4ensor data is often coupled !ith

ne! 0$ fault- and anomaly-detection algorithms to render many tas%s computerisable. 6 broad

class of e9amples can be found in condition monitoring and novelty detection, !ith technology

substituting for closed-circuit TM ;55TM< operators, !or%ers e9amining e'uipment defects, and

clinical staff responsible for monitoring the state of patients in intensive care.

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ere, the fact that computers lac% human biases is of great value: algorithms are free of irrational

 bias, and their vigilance need not be interrupted by rest brea%s or lapses of concentration.

(ollo!ing the declining costs of digital sensing and actuation, 0$ approaches have successfully

addressed condition monitoring applications ranging from batteries ;4aha, et al., 2D<, to

aircraft engines ;Bing, et al., 2<, !ater 'uality ;&sborne, et al., 212< and intensive care units

;I5=s< ;5lifford and 5lifton, 212H 5lifton, et al., 212<. 4ensors ce'ually be placed on truc%s

and pallets to improve companies8 supply chain management, and used to measure the moisture

in a field of crops to trac% the flo! of !ater through utility pipes.

This allo!s for automatic meter reading, eliminating the need for personnel to gather such

information. (or e9ample, the cities of 7oha, 4No aulo, and +eiing use sensors on pipes,

 pumps, and other !ater infrastructure to monitor conditions and manage !ater loss, reducing

lea%s by " to # percent. In the near future, it !ill be possible to place ine9pensive sensors on

light poles, side!al%s, and other public property to capture sound and images, li%ely reducing the

number of !or%ers in la! enforcement;0I, 213<.

6dvances in user interfaces also enable computers to respond directly to a !ider range of human

re'uests, thus augmenting the !or% of highly s%illed labour, !hile allo!ing some types of obs to

 become fully automated. (or e9ample, 6pple8s 4iri and oogle )o! rely on natural user 

interfaces to recognize spo%en !ords, interpret their meanings, and act on them accordingly.0oreover, a company called 4mart6ction no! provides call computerisation solutions that use

0$ technology and advanced speech recognition to improve upon conventional interactive voice

response systems, realising cost savings of C to J percent over an outsourced call center 

consisting of human labour ;566, 212<.

  Fven education, one of the most labour intensive sectors, !ill most li%ely be significantly

impacted by improved user interfaces and algorithms building upon big data. The recent gro!th

in 0&&5s ;0assive &pen &nline 5ourses< has begun to generate large datasets detailing ho!

students interact on forums, their diligence in completing assignments and vie!ing lectures, and

their ultimate grades ;4imonite, 213H +reslo!, et al., 213<. 4uch information, together !ith

improved user interfaces, !ill allo! for 0$ algorithms that serve as interactive tutors, !ith

teaching and assessment strategies statistically calibrated to match individual student needs

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;oolf, 21<. +ig data analysis !ill also allo! for more effective predictions of student

 performance, and for their suitability for post-graduation occupations. These technologies can

e'ually be implemented in recruitment, most li%ely resulting in the streamlining of human

resource ;?< departments.

&ccupations that re'uire subtle udgement are also increasingly susceptible to computerisation.

To many such tas%s, the unbiased decision ma%ing of an algorithm represents a comparative

advantage over human operators.

6lthough the e9tent of these developments remains to be seen, estimates by 0I ;213<

suggests that sophisticated algorithms could substitute for appro9imately 1" million full-time

%no!ledge !or%ers !orld!ide. ence, !hile technological progress throughout economic

history has largely been confined to the mechanisation of manual tas%s, re'uiring physical

labour, technological progress in the t!enty-first century can be e9pected to contribute to a !ide

range of cognitive tas%s, !hich, until no!, have largely remained a human domain. &f course,

many occupations being affected by these developments are still far from fully computerisable,

meaning that the computerisation of some tas%s !ill simply free-up time for human labour to

 perform other tas%s. )onetheless, the trend is clear: computers increasingly challenge human

labour in a !ide range of cognitive tas%s ;+rynolfsson and 0c6fee, 211<

!om#uteri%ation in non(routine manual tas)s"

0obile robotics provides a means of directly leveraging 0$ technologies to aid the

computerisation of a gro!ing scope of manual tas%s. The continued technological development

of robotic hard!are is having notable impact upon employment: over the past decades, industrial

robots have ta%en on the routine tas%s of most operatives in manufacturing. )o!, ho!ever, more

advanced robots are gaining enhanced sensors and manipulators, allo!ing them to perform non-

routine manual tas%s. (or e9ample, eneral Flectric has recently developed robots to climb andmaintain !ind turbines, and more fle9ible surgical robots !ith a greater range of motion !ill

soon perform more types of operations ;?obotics-M&, 213<. In a similar manner, the

computerisation of logistics is being aided by the increasing cost-effectiveness of highly

instrumented and computerised cars.

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0ass-production vehicles, such as the )issan $F6(, contain on-board computers and advanced

telecommunication e'uipment that render the car a potentially fly-by-!ire robot.1D 6dvances in

sensor technology mean that vehicles are li%ely to soon be augmented !ith even more advanced

suites of sensors. These !ill permit an algorithmic vehicle controller to monitor its environment

to a degree that e9ceeds the capabilities of any human driver: they have the ability to

simultaneously loo% both for!ards and bac%!ards, can natively integrate camera, 4 and

$I76? data, and are not subect to distraction.

6lgorithms are thus potentially safer and more effective drivers than humans. The big data

 provided by these improved sensors are offering solutions to many of the engineering problems

that had hindered robotic development in the past. In particular, the creation of detailed three

dimensional maps of road net!or%s has enabled autonomous vehicle navigationH most notably

illustrated by oogle8s use of large, specialised datasets collected by its driverless cars ;uizzo,

211<. It is no! completely feasible to store representations of the entire road net!or% on-board

a car, dramatically simplifying the navigation problem. 6lgorithms that could perform navigation

throughout the changing seasons, particularly after sno!fall, have been vie!ed as a substantial

challenge. o!ever, the big data approach can ans!er this by storing records from the last time

sno! fell, against !hich the vehicle8s current environment can be compared ;5hurchill and

 )e!man, 212<. 0$ approaches have also been developed to identify unprecedented changes to

a particular piece of the road net!or%, such as road!or%s ;0athibela, et al., 212<. This

emerging technology !ill affect a variety of logistics obs. 6gricultural vehicles, for%lifts and

cargo-handling vehicles are imminently automatable, and hospitals are already employing

autonomous robots to transport food, prescriptions and samples ;+loss, 211<. The

computerisation of mining vehicles is further being pursued by companies such as ?io Tinto,

see%ing to replace labour in 6ustralian mine-sites.1J

ith improved sensors, robots are capable of producing goods !ith higher 'uality and reliability

than human labour. (or e9ample, Fl 7ulze, a 4panish food processor, no! uses robotics to pic% 

up heads of lettuce from a conveyor belt, reecting heads that do not comply !ith company

standards. This is achieved by measuring their density and replacing them on the belt ;I(?,

212a<. 6dvanced sensors further allo! robots to recognise patterns. +a9ter, a 22, =47

general-purpose robot, provides a !ell-%no!n e9ample. The robot features an $57 display

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screen displaying a pair of eyes that ta%e on different e9pressions depending on the situation.

hen the robot is first installed or needs to learn a ne! pattern, no programming is re'uired. 6

human !or%er simply guides the robot arms through the motions that !ill be needed for the tas%.

+a9ter then memorises these patterns and can communicate that it has understood its ne!

instructions. hile the physical fle9ibility of +a9ter is limited to performing simple operations

such as pic%ing up obects and moving them, different standard attachments can be installed on

its arms, allo!ing +a9ter to perform a relatively broad scope of manual tas%s at lo! cost ;0I,

213<

Technological advances are contributing to declining costs in robotics. &ver the past decades,

robot prices have fallen about 1 percent annually and are e9pected to decline at an even faster 

 pace in the near future ;0I, 213<. Industrial robots, !ith features enabled by machine vision

and high-precision de9terity, !hich typically cost 1, to 1#, =47, !ill be available for 

#, to D#, =47 in the ne9t decade, !ith higher levels of intelligence and additional

capabilities ;I(?, 212b<. 7eclining robot prices !ill inevitably place them !ithin reach of more

users. (or e9ample, in 5hina, employers are increasingly incentivised to substitute robots for 

labour, as !ages and living standards are rising L (o9conn, a 5hinese contract manufacturer that

employs 1.2 million !or%ers, is no! investing in robots to assemble products such as the 6pple

ihone ;0ar%off, 212<. 6ccording to the International (ederation of ?obotics, robot sales in

5hina gre! by more than # percent in 211 and are e9pected to increase further.

lobally, industrial robot sales reached a record 1CC, units in 211, a " percent year-on-year 

increase ;I(?, 212b<. 0ost li%ely, there !ill be even faster gro!th ahead as lo!-priced general-

 purpose models, such as +a9ter, are adopted in simple manufacturing and service !or%.

F9panding technological capabilities and declining costs !ill ma%e entirely ne! uses for robots

 possible. ?obots !ill li%ely continue to ta%e on an increasing set of manual tas%s in

manufacturing, pac%ing, construction, maintenance, and agriculture. In addition, robots are

already performing many simple service tas%s such as vacuuming, mopping, la!n mo!ing, and

gutter cleaning L the mar%et for personal and household service robots is gro!ing by about 2

 percent annually ;0I, 213<. 0ean!hile, commercial service robots are no! able to perform

more comple9 tas%s in food preparation, health care, commercial cleaning, and elderly care

;?obotics-M&, 213<. 6s robot costs decline and technological capabilities e9pand, robots can

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thus be e9pected to gradually substitute for labour in a !ide range of lo!-!age service

occupations, !here most =4 ob gro!th has occurred over the past decades ;6utor and 7orn,

213<. This means that many lo!-!age manual obs that have been previously protected from

computerisation could diminish over time.

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*ector(wise im#act on jobs

Health and *ocial !are"

It is anticipated that there !ill be a significant increase in the number of obs in health and social

care due to opportunities that !ill emerge !ith investment in medical research and innovation. It

is anticipated that the increase in ob opportunities !ill attract a range of individuals ;from those

entering the labour mar%et for the first time to those transferring from other sectors<. The

adoption of technological innovations !ithin the health and care sectors is e9pected to change

the profile of many obs. In these sectors, there is an anticipated tension bet!een an increase in

demand for social and healthcare services, and constraints on public spending. Technological

innovation and ne! businessOdelivery models provide opportunities to address these challenges.

(or e9ample, the introduction of personal healthcare budgets !ould enable people to select

 preferred healthcare options and services.

+rofessional and ,usiness *er&ices *ector"

7evelopments in the professional and business services sector are li%ely to be lin%ed closely to

globalisation and internationally traded services ;gro!th in the Fast, for e9ample, creates

demand for this sector !ith ne! customers and potentially ne! products<, the adoption of 

technological innovation, and providing solutions to ne! or increased social demands ;such as an

ageing population<. &ne of the maor influences is li%ely to be the automation of professional

 obs and the impact of I5T using smart algorithms. =ndergoing constant change, the structure,

management and strategies of businesses in this sector, and supported by this sector, are li%ely to

 become increasingly fle9ible, diverse and global.

-etail and ogistics"

It is anticipated that obs and s%ills in the retail and logistics sector !ill be impacted by the

increased use of I5T in !or% processes ;both bac% office and customer facing<, the continued

impact of the Internet in multi-channel retailing, and social consumption patterns ;including

satisfying Egreen8 consumer choices<. &verall, a gro!ing population !ill probably drive gro!th

in the demand for both lo!- and high-s%illed obs !ithin the retail and logistics sector. 7ata and

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technology enable ne! service models for retailers, allo!ing for increasing sophistication in

segmentation and customisation through customer profiling.

/ducation"

The development of mar%et-based and employer focused education is e9pected to become an

increasingly important driver for the sector. 4ocial trends and enabling technologies create a need

for increasingly personalised modes ;in structure and content< for learners. This is particularly

the case for (urther Fducation and igher Fducation, !here higher fees focus the minds of 

learners on employability 'uestions and return on investment. &nline and blended learning

techni'ues !ill become more !idespread and sophisticated to match the e9pectations of fee-

 paying learners. It is anticipated that there !ill be an increase in demand for !or%-based

learning, !hich offers the fle9ibility re'uired by employers and individuals. ith increasing

competition and public spending constraints on core funding in the igher Fducation sector, ne!

entrants ;private providers< may find it easier to adapt to the ne! environment, !ith a different

 business model, a lo!er cost base and a very focused curriculum.

anufacturing"

lobal competition, technology adoption and international trade levels !ill have a formative

influence on the manufacturing sector. ithin a globalised production environment, the demand

for lo!-s%illed labour in manufacturing !ill continue to decrease. &ne of the maor uncertainties

facing the sector is the degree to !hich additive manufacturing or 37 printing !ill revolutionise

 production and supply chains. The manufacturing sector in the =B !ill be challenged to upgrade

its innovation capacity L and move beyond achieving efficiency ;through lean methods<.

Increasing concern over resilience of supply chains is li%ely to drive business strategies and may

stimulate near-shoring and re-shoring of manufacturing activity to the =B.

!reati&e and 1igital sector"

5hanges in technology are e9pected to drive productivity and the development of ne! business

models in the 5reative and 7igital 4ector. The sector !ill have a significant impact on other 

sectors as digital and creative solutions are applied in different business processes and fields. It is

anticipated that a gro!th in virtual collaboration and outsourcing, together !ith the increasing

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need for fle9ible proect management, !ill also shape the !or% environment in the 5reative and

7igital 4ector. It is anticipated that there !ill be an increase in demand for digital tools that

engage !ith customers, suppliers and companies8 o!n employees. 6longside e9pected

improvements in productivity that come !ith the application of I5T tools, companies !ill see% to

incorporate digital platforms as a core part of their innovation processes ;for e9ample, in open

innovation platforms<.

!onstruction"

hilst it is plausible that the sector !ill continue to e9perience the ;cyclical< impacts of the

economy as a !hole to 23, there are several %ey drivers that are li%ely to shape employment

and s%ills demands. The gro!ing population of the =B !ill sustain demand for construction obs

although the building of ne! housing relies on an enabling regulatory environment. ?esource

efficiency is another %ey driving factor for the sector L both in the creation of ne! housing stoc% 

and in improving e9isting stoc%. &ffsite construction !ith on-site assembly and final

construction are anticipated to offer cost-effective and fle9ible means for meeting some of the

increased future demand. hilst some of the sector !ill continue !ith established techni'ues and

approaches, ne! technologies ;for e9ample, energy and materials< !ill change !or% needs for 

construction, maintenance and repair.

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+robability of $ob

 

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rguments that can be made by different #eo#le with different

&iews

The &iew from those who ex#ect 3 and robotics to ha&e a #ositi&e or neutralim#act on jobs by 2024.

 !rgument '(: Throughout history, technology has been a job creator—not a job destroyer.

Pistorically, technology has created more obs than it destroys and there is no reason to thin% 

other!ise in this case. 4omeone has to ma%e and service all these advanced devices./ ;Mint 5erf,

vice president and chief Internet evangelist for oogle<

*Technology !ill continue to disrupt obs, but more obs seem li%ely to be created. hen the!orld population !as a fe! hundred million people there !ere hundreds of millions of obs.

6lthough there have al!ays been unemployed people, !hen !e reached a fe! billion people

there !ere billions of obs. There is no shortage of things that need to be done and that !ill not

change./ ;@onathan rudin, principal researcher for 0icrosoft<

 !rgument ')* Advances in technology create new jobs and industries even as they displace

 some of the older ones.

+en 4hneiderman, professor of computer science at the =niversity of 0aryland, !rote, *?obots

and 6I ma%e compelling stories for ournalists, but they are a false vision of the maor economic

changes. @ournalists lost their obs because of changes to advertising, professors are threatened

 by 0&&5s, and store salespeople are losing obs to Internet sales people. Improved user 

interfaces, electronic delivery ;videos, music, etc.<, and more self-reliant customers reduce ob

needs. 6t the same time someone is building ne! !ebsites, managing corporate social media

 plans, creating ne! products, etc. Improved user interfaces, novel services, and fresh ideas !ill

create more obs./

6my ebb, 5F& of strategy firm ebbmedia roup, !rote, *There is a general concern that the

robots are ta%ing over. I disagree that our emerging technologies !ill permanently displace most

of the !or%force, though I8d argue that obs !ill shift into other sectors. )o! more than ever, an

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army of talented coders is needed to help our technology advance. +ut !e !ill still need fol%s to

do pac%aging, assembly, sales, and outreach. The collar of the future is a hoodie./

 !rgument '+: There are certain jobs that only humans have the capacity to do.

7avid ughes, a retired =.4. 6rmy 5olonel !ho, from 1D2, !as a pioneer in individual toOfrom

digital telecommunications, responded, *(or all the automation and 6I, I thin% the Qhuman handQ

!ill have to be involved on a large scale. @ust as aircraft have to have pilots and copilots, I don8t

thin% all Eself-driving8 cars !ill be totally unmanned. The human8s ability to detect une9pected

circumstances, and ta%e action overriding automatic driving !ill be needed as long and

individually o!ned Ecars8 are on the road./

amela ?utledge, h7 and director of the 0edia sychology ?esearch 5enter, responded,

*There !ill be many things that machines can8t do, such as services that re'uire thin%ing,

creativity, synthesizing, problem-solving, and innovatingR6dvances in 6I and robotics allo!

 people to cognitively offload repetitive tas%s and invest their attention and energy in things

!here humans can ma%e a difference. e already have cars that tal% to us, a phone !e can tal% 

to, robots that lift the elderly out of bed, and apps that remind us to call 0om. 6n app can dial

0omQs number and even send flo!ers, but an app canQt do that most human of all things:

emotionally connect !ith her./

 !rgument ',* The technology will not advance enough in the next decade to substantially

impact the job maret.

7avid 5lar%, a senior research scientist at 0IT8s 5omputer 4cience and 6rtificial Intelligence

$aboratory, noted, *The larger trend to consider is the penetration of automation into service

 obs. This trend !ill re'uire ne! s%ills for the service industry, !hich may challenge some of the

lo!er-tier !or%ers, but in 12 years I do not thin% autonomous devices !ill be truly autonomous. I

thin% they !ill allo! us to deliver a higher level of service !ith the same level of human

involvement./

@ari 6r%%o, Internet e9pert for Fricsson and chair of the Internet Fngineering Tas% (orce, !rote,

*There is no doubt that these technologies affect the types of obs that need to be done. +ut there

are only 12 years to 22#, some of these technologies !ill ta%e a long time to deploy in

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significant scaleR e8ve been living a relatively slo! but certain progress in these fields from

the 1Cs./

 !rgument '-*  !ur social, legal, and regulatory structures will minimi"e the impact on

employment.

lenn Fdens, a director of research in net!or%ing, security, and distributed systems !ithin the

5omputer 4cience $aboratory at 6?5, a Sero9 5ompany, !rote, *There are significant

technical and policy issues yet to resolve, ho!ever there is a relentless march on the part of 

commercial interests ;businesses< to increase productivity so if the technical advances are

reliable and have a positive ?&I then there is a ris% that !or%ers !ill be displaced. =ltimately !e

need a broad and large base of employed populationH other!ise there !ill be no one to pay for all

of this ne! !orld./

6ndre! ?ens, chief council at the 4huttle!orth (oundation, !rote, *6 fundamental insight of 

economics is that an entrepreneur !ill only supply goods or services if there is a demand, and

those !ho demand the good can pay. Therefore any country that !ants a competitive economy

!ill ensure that most of its citizens are employed so that in turn they can pay for goods and

services. If a country doesn8t ensure employment driven demand it !ill become increasingly less

competitive./

eoff $ivingston, author and president of Tenacity# 0edia, !rote, *I see the movement to!ards

6I and robotics as evolutionary, in large part because it is such a sociological leap. The

technology may be ready, but !e are notGat least, not yet./

The &iew from those who ex#ect 3 and robotics to dis#lace more jobs than

they create"

 !rgument '(* #isplacement of worers from automation is already happening—and about to

 get much worse

@erry 0ichals%i, founder of ?FS, the ?elationship Fconomy eSpedition, sees the logic of the

slo! and unrelenting movement in the direction of more automation: *6utomation is Moldemort:

the terrifying force nobody is !illing to name. &h sure, !e tal% about it no! and then, but

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usually in passing. e hardly d!ell on the fact that someone trying to pic% a career path that is

not li%ely to be automated !ill have a very hard time ma%ing that choice. S-ray technician

&utsourced already, and automation in progress. The race bet!een automation and human !or% 

is !on by automation, and as long as !e need fiat currency to pay the rentOmortgage, humans

!ill fall out of the system in droves as this shift ta%es place. The safe zones are services that

re'uire local human effort ;gardening, painting, babysitting<, distant human effort ;editing,

coaching, coordinating<, and high-level thin%ingOrelationship building. Fverything else falls in

the target-rich environment of automation./

0ar% )all, a program manager for )646, noted, *=nli%e previous disruptions such as !hen

farming machinery displaced farm !or%ers but created factory obs ma%ing the machines,

robotics and 6I are different. 7ue to their versatility and gro!ing capabilities, not ust a fe!

economic sectors !ill be affected, but !hole s!aths !ill be. This is already being seen no! in

areas from robocalls to lights-out manufacturing. Fconomic efficiency !ill be the driver.  The

social conse'uence is that good-paying obs !ill be increasingly scarce.P

 !rgument ')* The conse$uences for income ine$uality will be profound.

4to!e +oyd, lead researcher at iga&0 ?esearch, said, *6s ust one aspect of the rise of robots

and 6I, !idespread use of autonomous cars and truc%s !ill be the immediate end of ta9i drivers

and truc% driversH truc% driver is the number-one occupation for men in the =.4.. @ust as

importantly, autonomous cars !ill radically decrease car o!nership, !hich !ill impact the

automotive industry. erhaps D of cars in urban areas !ould go a!ay. 6utonomous robots and

systems could impact up to # of obs, according to recent analysis by (rey and &sborne at

&9ford, leaving only obs that re'uire the Eapplication of heuristics8 or creativityR6n increasing

 proportion of the !orld8s population !ill be outside of the !orld of !or%Geither living on the

dole, or benefiting from the dramatically decreased costs of goods to e%e out a subsistence

lifestyle. The central 'uestion of 22# !ill be: hat are people for in a !orld that does not need

their labor, and !here only a minority are needed to guide the Qbot-based economy/

 )ilofer 0erchant, author of a boo% on ne! forms of advantage, !rote, *@ust today, the guy !ho

drives the service car I ta%e to go to the airport said that heU does this ob because his last blue-

collar ob disappeared from automation. 7riverless cars displace him. here does he go hat

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does he do for society The gaps bet!een the haves and have-nots !ill gro! larger. I8m

reminded of the line from enry (ord, !ho understood he does no good to his business if his

o!n people can8t afford to buy the car./

+oint of agreement

The educational system is doing a #oor job of #re#aring the next generation of wor)ers.

o!ard ?heingold, a pioneering Internet sociologist and self-employed !riter, consultant, and

educator, noted, *The obs that the robots !ill leave for humans !ill be those that re'uire thought

and %no!ledge. In other !ords, only the best-educated humans !ill compete !ith machines. 6nd

education systems in the =.4. and much of the rest of the !orld are still sitting students in ro!s

and columns, teaching them to %eep 'uiet and memorize !hat is told to them, preparing them for 

life in a 2th century factory./

+ryan 6le9ander, technology consultant, futurist, and senior fello! at the )ational Institute for 

Technology in $iberal Fducation, !rote, *The education system is not !ell positioned to

transform itself to help shape graduates !ho can Erace against the machines.8 )ot in time, and

not at scale. 6utodidacts !ill do !ell, as they al!ays have done, but the broad masses of people

are being prepared for the !rong economy./

The conce#t of “wor)” may change significantly in the coming decade.

&n a more hopeful note, a number of e9perts e9pressed a belief that the coming changes !ill

allo! us to renegotiate the e9isting social compact around !or% and employment.

Technology is not destiny 5 we control the future we will inhabit.

In the end, a number of these e9perts too% pains to note that none of these potential outcomesG 

from the most utopian to most dystopianGare etched in stone. 6lthough technological

advancement often seems to ta%e on a mind of its o!n, humans are in control of the political,

social, and economic systems that !ill ultimately determine !hether the coming !ave of 

technological change has a positive or negative impact on obs and employment.

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4eth (in%elstein, a programmer, consultant and F(( ioneer of the Flectronic (rontier 6!ard

!inner, responded, *The technodeterminist-negative vie!, that automation means obs loss, end

of story, versus the technodeterminist-positive vie!, that more and better obs !ill result, both

seem to me to ma%e the error of confusing potential outcomes !ith inevitability. Thus, a

technological advance by itself  can either be positive or negative for obs, depending on the

social structure as a !holeR.this is not a technological conse'uenceH rather it8s a political

choice./

@ason ontin, editor in chief and publisher of the 0IT Technology ?evie!, responded, *There8s

no economic la! that says the obs eliminated by ne! technologies !ill inevitably be replaced

 by ne! obs in ne! mar%etsR 6ll of this is manageable by states and economies: but it !ill

re'uire !restling !ith ideologically fraught solutions, such as a guaranteed minimum income,and a broadening of our social sense of !hat is valuable !or%./

+ossibilities

We will ex#erience less drudgery and more leisure time.

al Marian, chief economist for oogle, envisions a future !ith fe!er Eobs8 but a more e'uitable

distribution of labor and leisure time. *If Edisplace more obs8 means Eeliminate dull, repetitive,and unpleasant !or%,8 the ans!er !ould be yes. o! unhappy are you that your dish!asher has

replaced !ashing dishes by hand, your !ashing machine has displaced !ashing clothes by hand,

or your vacuum cleaner has replaced hand cleaning 0y guess is this Eob displacement8 has

 been very !elcome, as !ill the Eob displacement8 that !ill occur over the ne9t 1 years. The

!or% !ee% has fallen from D hours a !ee% to about 3D hours no!, and I e9pect that it !ill

continue to fall. This is a good thing. Fveryone !ants more obs and less !or%. ?obots of various

forms !ill result in less !or%, but the conventional !or% !ee% !ill decrease, so there !ill be the

same number of obs ;adusted for demographics, of course<. This is !hat has been going on for 

the last 3 years so I see no reason that it !ill stop in the decade./

Tiffany 4hlain, filmma%er, host of the 6&$ series The %uture &tarts 'ere, and founder of The

ebby 6!ards, responded, *?obots that collaborate !ith humans over the cloud !ill be in full

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realization by 22#. ?obots !ill assist humans in tas%s thus allo!ing humans to use their 

intelligence in ne! !ays, freeing us up from menial tas%s./

3t will free us from the industrial age notion of what a “job” is"

6 notable number of e9perts ta%e it for granted that many of tomorro!8s obs !ill be held by

robots or digital agentsGand e9press hope that this !ill inspire us as a society to completely

redefine our notions of !or% and employment.

eter and Trudy @ohnson-$enz, founders of the online community 6!a%ening Technology, based

in ortland, &regon, !rote, *0any things need to be done to care for, teach, feed, and heal others

that are difficult to monetize. If technologies replace people in some obs and roles, !hat %inds

of social support or safety nets !ill ma%e it possible for them to contribute to the common good

through other means Thin% outside the ob./

+ob (ran%ston, an Internet pioneer and technology innovator !hose !or% helped allo! people to

have control of the net!or%ing ;internet< !ithin their homes, !rote, *e8ll need to evolve the

concept of a ob as a means of !ealth distribution as !e did in response to the invention of the

se!ing machine displacing seam stressing as !elfare./

@im endler, an architect of the evolution of the orld ide eb and professor of computer science at ?ensselaer olytechnic Institute, !rote, *The notion of !or% as a necessity for life

cannot be sustained if the great bul% of manufacturing and such moves to machinesGbut humans

!ill adapt by finding ne! models of payment as they did in the industrial revolution ;after much

upheaval<./

Tim +ray, an active participant in the IFT( and technology industry veteran, !rote, *It seems

inevitable to me that the proportion of the population that needs to engage in traditional full-time

employment, in order to %eep us fed, supplied, healthy, and safe, !ill decrease. I hope this leads

to a humane restructuring of the general social contract around employment./

We will see a return to uni6uely “human” forms of #roduction

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6nother group of e9perts anticipates that pushbac% against e9panding automation !ill lead to a

revolution in small-scale, artisanal, and handmade modes of production.

Bevin 5arson, a senior fello! at the 5enter for a 4tateless 4ociety and contributor to the 2

(oundation blog, !rote, *I believe the concept of Eobs8 and Eemployment8 !ill be far less

meaningful, because the main direction of technological advance is to!ard cheap production

tools ;e.g., des%top information processing tools or open-source 5)5 garage machine tools< that

undermine the material basis of the !age system. The real change !ill not be the stereotypical

model of Etechnological unemployment,8 !ith robots displacing !or%ers in the factories, but

increased employment in small shops, increased proect-based !or% on the construction industry

model, and increased provisioning in the informal and household economies and production for 

gift, sharing, and barter./

Tony 4iesfeld, director of the 0onitor Institute, !rote, *I anticipate that there !ill be a bac%lash

and !e8ll see a continued gro!th of artisanal products and small-scale effortsU, done myself or 

!ith a small group of others, that reect robotics and digital technology./

6 net!or% scientist for ++) Technologies !rote, *To some degree, this is already happening. In

terms of the large-scale, mass-produced economy, the utility of lo!-s%ill human !or%ers is

rapidly diminishing, as many blue-collar obs ;e.g., in manufacturing< and !hite-collar obs ;e.g.,

 processing insurance paper!or%< can be handled much more cheaply by automated systems. 6nd

!e can already see some hints of reaction to this trend in the current economy: entrepreneurially-

minded unemployed and underemployed people are ta%ing advantages of sites li%e Ftsy and

Tas%?abbit to mar%et 'uintessentially human s%ills. 6nd in response, there is increasing demand

for Eartisanal8 or Ehand-crafted8 products that !ere made by a human. In the long run this trend

!ill actually push to!ard the re-localization and re-humanization of the economy, !ith the 1th-

and 2th-century economies of scale e9ploited !here they ma%e sense ;cheap, identical,

disposable goods<, and human-oriented techni'ues ;both older and ne!er< increasinglyaccounting for goods and services that are valuable, customized, or long-lasting./